Tag Archives: Wolverhampton

Stat of the Day, 12th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 12/03/13

Stat of the Day: 12/03/13

Stat of the Day, 12th March 2013

Nothing to report from yesterday, as Rocky Bender was a non-runner. The race itself justified my thoughts that Qalinas was the danger, but that's about as involved as we got!

There is hopefully some racing taking place at Cheltenham today, I may have received the odd email or so alerting me to this, but SotD is going to attempt to fly under the radar a little bit by heading to the West Midlands for some All-Weather action. We're looking at a 13-runner, Class 5 Handicap and the trip is a shade under 6 furlongs for the...

5.50 Wolverhampton

Today's piece is going to be short and hopefully sweet. There's no reams of trainer stats, nor years of back data to wade through: today is all about one horse that seems to have "clicked" at the Dunstall Park track of late.

Hab Reeh, whose trainer Mrs Ruth Carr is pretty well-known to Geegeez readers, is today's selection. This horse has really enjoyed running here at Wolverhampton of late and today will be the 7th outing here in 2013 for this 5-year-old grey. His form here since the turn of the year makes for impressive reading at 162113. He has notched up three wins already this year and was very unlucky when finishing second in mid-January. His third place finish last time out off today's mark was by no means a poor show either. I don't think he was kept quite enough to the action that day, but managed another place finish.

His 50% strike rate here this year has generated decent profits of 3pts or 50% of stakes, whilst E/W backers have reaped the rewards too. Five E/W successes from six has given a slightly better rate of return ie 57.33% (6.88pts to be precise!)

It should be pointed out, however, that he has been ridden by apprentice/amateur jockeys during this recent run, yet today the more experienced Amy Ryan is on board. Without casting any aspersions towards the ability of Hab Reeh's previous jockeys, it is hoped that Amy's wealth of experience might just get a little more out of our selection today, as he looks to build on that creditable 3rd place off today's mark.

And that's pretty much that for today. He's in form, he likes the track and acts on it well and we're hoping the change of jockey might just squeeze a little more out of him.

There seems to be enough in the market for a safety-first approach and his placing record suggests this is the way forward too. So, the call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Hab Reeh at 7/1 BOG with Stan James, but for your preferred bookie...

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Stat of the Day, 25th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 25/02/13

Stat of the Day: 25/02/13

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2013

If ever there was a metaphorical slap in the face, we got one yesterday. The only thing Earcomesthedream possibly did wrong was that he set off for home a little too early. He attempted to cling on gamely as a pack of four hunted him down. As they came over the last, he really could still have finished anywhere in the first five. Unfortunately for us, he didn't have enough in the tank to hold on and we didn't even get an E/W payout as he was finally placed 4th.

It's back to A/W action today and a trip to Dunstall Park for their opener. This is now an 11-runner (one N/R this morning), Class 5 handicap over a shade (20yds) further than five furlongs for the...

2.30 Wolverhampton

Since teaming up for the first time just under 10 months ago (with a 7/1 winner at Haydock), the trainer/jockey partnership of Paul Green and Joe Fanning has not only proved successful in terms of wins and places, but also from a financial aspect.

Six winners and four other places from twenty runners in ten months is excellent form indeed. The 30% strike rate has produced an amazing 35.5pts (+177.5% POI) profit, whilst a place ratio of 1 in 2 has seen E/W backers rewarded to the tune of 50pts (+125%).

They arrive here today for just one combined ride seeking a third win on the bounce and all with the same horse: M J Woodward.

M J Woodward has a career record of seven wins at 5f to 6f, including six wins on A/W tracks (1411 here since dropping down from 7f to today's 5f). He has made massive progress this winter and is a plucky battling sort who always seems to find just enough. He completed a hat trick at Southwell (6f) last time out when taking his recent run of form to 5 wins from 7 and I fully expect him to be on the premises again today.

He is actually up 4 lbs for that last win, but despite this he hasn't been overhandicapped this season, because he never seems to win by much (usually by half a length or less!): just seeming to know what's required and doing just enough.

The rise in the weights allied to his propensity to do just enough might well cause some concerns, but we're going to get him at a longer price than usual, and considering that BetVictor are showing him at 6/1 BOG this morning (10.30am), the sensible (if a little conservative) option is to take a 0.5pts E/W bet on M J Woodward at those prices, but you can (and should!) always...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 2.30 Wolverhampton

The full racecard for today's race is right here, too.

Stat of the Day, 11th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 11/02/13

Stat of the Day: 11/02/13

Stat of the Day, 11th February 2013

I thought Flying Pickets gave a really good account of himself yesterday, despite seemingly being given far too much work to do late on. He was held back too far from the pace for my liking and encountered plenty of traffic when trying to weve his way home. He had to be switched twice and this won't have helped in trying to overcome quite a large deficit in the closing stages. He ran well when asked for an effort and stayed on to the line, but it was yet another second placed finish, I'm afraid. A little light relief for the traders, as our 5/1 shot was sent off at 3/1.

Plumpton's off today, so we're left with two meetings to choose from. And the safer option today would appear to be to avoid the Yorkshire mud at Catterick and head for the Dunstall Park Polytrack once again for a 10-runner, Class 4 Handicap, where the trip is a shade under nine and a half furlongs for the...

4.30 Wolverhampton

Willie Musson's recent record at Wolverhampton has caught my eye this morning. I was just looking over the results from the last year or so and I noticed that since the turn of 2012, he has had nine winners from just 37 runners here at Wolverhampton. That's a very satisfactory return of just over 24.3% and one to attract most people's attentions. If you add in the fact that further seven runners have made the frame, giving a place strike rate of 43.2%.

Quite often, trainers with such good record pay for it in terms of the P/L figures, as 25% winning ratios generally contain plenty of short-priced jollies. This isn't the case here, as the nine winners have produced almost 25pts clear profit at SP (+64.9% POI) and each way backers have benefited from a similar return (24.21pts). A nice bit of gravy, as some would say!

Willie's got just the one runner today and he's a very interesting sort, whilst being a bit of a punt.

The horse is Mountain Range and he makes his debut for Mr Musson today. He was previously trained by John Dunlop and after a decent enough season as a three-year old, seemed to lose his way a little last year and didn't actually win a race in 2012 with a record of 6736780. But after that 10th place finish (12 ran!) in December 2012, he was sold out of John Dunlop's yard for 11,000 Guineas and he's the type of horse that Willie Musson is so adept at getting the best out of.

He has already won twice off higher marks than today (3 career wins to date at 68, 75 and 82: runs off 74 today) as a 3yr old  and is very well handicapped if Mr Musson can get him back to anything like that sort of form; but it does remain to be seen if he'll "get" the Wolverhampton track, his four previous A/W outings have been at Lingfield and Kempton. His three career wins have been at trips ranging from 1m to 1m 2f including a win on polytrack at Kempton, just over a year ago off a mark some 8lbs higher than today.

He is the type that Willie Musson does well with and if a return to his previous form can be found, he looks very well treated at the weights. There are, fo course, several ifs and buts surrounding today's selection, but this is reflected within the price. I've just taken 23.0 for him to win on Betfair and 5.4 for a place, but as I guarantee you'll get the same prices, the official line is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Mountain Range at 16/1 BOG with Stan James (price correct as of 10.30 am and also available at Hills), but please do...

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Stat of the Day, 29th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 29/01/13

Stat of the Day: 29/01/13

Stat of the Day, 29th January 2013

It was abject from Abraq yesterday as he trailed home last of six and we'll hope for better today. Yet again, however, we're faced with just two meetings: both on the A/W and one of those is a jumpers bumper meeting (at Lingfield). It's therefore pretty much Hobson's Choice, as we look (yet again!) at what Wolverhampton has to offer us on a fairly uninspiring looking day.

I've gone for one in a trappy 13-runner, Class 6 handicap over 1m 141yds, the...

4.30 Wolverhampton

Robin Bastiman isn't one of the more familiar trainers at Dunstall Park, having only saddled twelve runners at this venue over the last 11 months or so, but the results achieved from this small number of runners is excellent. A string of results such as 113835641313, have resulted in a strike rate of 33.33% and 66.67% of the runners have made the frame.

Seeing as Robin doesn't send that many here, it's no surprise that he has just the one runner today and that horse is responsible for the last two victories in that sequence: both over today's trip too.

Mr. Bastiman's Kyllachykov is therefore seeking a C&D hat-trick within three weeks and despite an obvious rise in the weights, must stand a decent chance today. This horse had little/no form on the turf, but has been revitalised by being sent out to the Wolverhampton polytrack where he now stands at 2/2, having secured victories at 6/1 and 11/4. Today's contest will be a bit tougher than both of those previous outings and hopefully, we can find some value in the market.

A further positive today is the re-booking of Daniel Tudhope to take the ride. Danny was on board last time out and judged the race perfectly having kept in touch throughout and hitting the front at just the right time. Kyllachykov looked to have something left in reserve that day, so the extra weight might not be too much of a burden. Daniel is generally in decent form at present anyway, boasting a 29% strike rate in the last month (7/24) and he has managed to get his mounts into the frame on no less than seven occasions from eleven in the last fortnight.

As I intimated earlier, we won't have it all our own way today, but should the jockey tackle the ride the same way as last time out and provided the horse performs to a similar level, we should very well be there or thereabouts. There's enough scope in the price to hedge our bets and my play today is 0.5pts E/W bet on Kyllachykov at 13/2 BOG with BetVictor, but as always, you can...

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Stat of the Day, 21st January 2013

SotD : 21/01/13

SotD : 21/01/13

Stat of the Day, 21st January 2013

Apologies all round for the late arrival of SotD today: unforeseen circumstances etc etc.

And it's Hobson's Choice on what looks like a day for favourite backers at Dunstall Park. Our race is a seven runner Class 5 handicap over 1m 6f aka the...

3.05 Wolverhampton

Trainer David Barron hasn't sent many runners of late, but the three he has run so far this year have all appeared here at Wolverhampton, resulting in two winners and a third place finish, so the yard is in decent nick, albeit off a small sample size.

In fact David's runners are 3 wins and a place from 6 runs here in the last three months with one of those wins coming over Course & Distance from today's selection Sohcahtoa.

Sohcahtoa reappeared here on 4th January after a 3 month break and looked as fresh and as good as ever when landing the C&D victory. Hie is unexposed on this surface, that being his only race at this track in his career to date. There should be some decent early pace in this contest today and that should suit him.

He looked full of running towards the end of that last outing and despite a 3lb rise in the weights, a repeat of that effort should be enough to see him home again today, as he did seem to have quite a bit left in reserve. Luke McNiff (5lb claimer) judged the ride perfectly that day and he's back on board again today.

At the moment (1210) he's the 3/1 jt favourite, but don't let that put you off. I actually marked him up at 11/4 and I think he'll probably go off even shorter than that, so there's still some value in taking the 3/1 as I'll be doing. It'll be BOG, of course and I'm using bet365 today, but other are matching this price at present, so why not...

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Stat of the Day, 15th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 15/01/13

Stat of the Day: 15/01/13

Stat of the Day, 15th January 2013

No play yesterday as Club House was declared a non-runner. This horse seems interesting, so I'll be looking for him next time out. A tricky day today with very heavy ground at both the NH meetings (Ffos Las & Lingfield). I had an E/W bet in mind on Rosoff in the 2.00 Lingfield, but doubts over the quality of the track (still covered as I wrote this!) have sent me scurrying back to the All-Weather again!

There is, of course an A/W Junior Bumper at Lingfield, but Dunstall Park is the main focus of any All-Weather action today, so that's where we're going. Our race is a twelve-runner, Class 5 Maiden over a mile and a half, the...

3.25 Wolverhampton

A Class 5 Maiden on a Tuesday afternoon on the Wolverhampton polytrack won't be everyone's first choice as a betting medium, but I believe we've an angle that could well prove profitable, as Jeremy Noseda's record in maiden events here has been exceptional in recent years.

In fact, in the last five years, Jeremy has sent 38 horses out to compete in these maiden events at the Dunstall Park track and sixteen of them have returned as winners with a further ten runners making the frame. His win strike rate of  42.1% has generated 24pts profit at level stakes (=89.5% POI), whilst E/W backers have enjoyed a profitable return of 29.6pts, courtesy of the 68.4% place strike rate. This place strike rate, whilst impressive over a five-year period has actually improved to a staggering 76.2% in the last two years, whilst Jeremy has maintained his 42% win ratio.

No prizes for guessing that Mr Noseda has just one runner today, in the form of Shirazz.

Shirazz is an interesting newcomer and makes her belated debut at the age of four. Whilst her dam wasn't rated as anything special, her breeding tends to suggest that this middle distance type of trip will be her forté. She's a half-sister to the 5yr old Peachez who has scored 3 wins and 4 places from 8 races at today's trip and also won twice (plus a place) here at Wolverhampton, so our selection is expected to take to the surface quite readily.

Apprentice Amy Scott (5lb claimer) takes the ride today and she has also ridden Peachez to good effect in the past (3 wins and 6 further places from 13).

All this is, of course, pure conjecture, as nobody really knows which way this one will go on debut, but the breeding ( also related to several USA winners) and the trainers' stats tend to suggest we'll at least get a decent run for our money and that an E/W bet wouldn't be an unreasonable thing to suggest.

At 10.15am, the markets were showing her at anything between 7/1 BOG and 12/1 (non-BOG). So, my play today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Shirazz at 11/1 BOG with BetVictor. You can, of course, always check the odds on offer elsewhere by taking the opportunity to...

 

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Stat of the Day, 13th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 13/01/13

Stat of the Day: 13/01/13

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2013

I don't seem to be getting much joy at present. George Nympton (like many of my recent picks) seemed to be travelling really well to a point. He was well placed tracking the leaders before a bad mistake on landing after the seventh fence. In all honesty, you have to take your hat off to Noel Fehily for managing to even stay on board, never mind getting the horse home. The race was gone in an instant and although Noel managed to get his mount travelling again, he was never going to even get close.

We're going to make the short journey back to Dunstall Park today for another of those Class 6 Handicaps over a mile and a half (plus 50yds!), as twelve are set to contest the ...

4.00 Wolverhampton

I gave some serious consideration to backing Royal Holiday at 7/1 in the 2.00 race, because the horse is in good form and the jockey Daniel Tudhope is 4/8 at Wolverhampton this season, but I've decided to go with a multiple course and distance winner who is also going really well at present.

It's another of those old warriors for SotD today, in the form of Kames Park, an eleven year old seemingly enjoying a new lease of life, despite having well over 100 races under his belt.

Kames Park beat both Daring Damsel and Layla's Boy (who re-oppose today) over course and distance nine days ago and he was a narrow second at long odds in a much better race here on Friday, also over course and distance. That race was a Class 3 contest and he drops back to Class 6 today, after going down by just a neck at 25/1, yet was still finishing strongly, despite running from 6lbs out of the handicap on that occasion. He turns out again today on his proper mark, which is just 4lbs higher than his previous victory over C & D, which incidentally was his 5th win at Wolverhampton (4 over today's trip)

Jimmy Quinn takes the ride again on Kames Park today, as he has done on those last two outings and this will be the thirteenth time they've been partnered together, having achieved 4 wins and 4 further places from the previous 12 outings. Backing this partnership has been profitable to the tune of some 35pts to date with the 58.3% place strike rate being of benefit to E/W backers who have made just shy of 50pts from those 12 races.

Any repeat of his form from the last couple of outings should be enough to take this one and I fully expect another bold run from him. There's possibly enough in the price for a safety-first E/W bet, but fortune favours the brave, so they say and I think we'll be rewarded for our faith by taking a 1pt win bet on Kames Park at 6/1 BOG with Bet365. You can, of course, always check the odds on offer elsewhere by taking the opportunity to...

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Stat of the Day, 29th December 2012

Stat of the Day 29/12/12

Stat of the Day 29/12/12

Stat of the Day, 29th December 2012

Bin End's performance pretty much summed up the way SotD has performed of late. The selection looked good on paper and went well until asked for a little extra. From then on, his race was over and he went backwards and in fairness, I'm not sure anything would have caught the eventual winner who fairly flew home from 3 out. Just like SotD, Bin End gave his best shot, which was ultimately not good enough and I'm just as disappointed as my detractors are with recent results.

In a bid to alleviate the drought, we're going back to the West Midlands Polytrack for 5 furlong, 12-runner, Class 5 Handicap shown on your racecards as the...

2.05 Wolverhampton

Mark Buckley's record at Wolverhampton is by no means spectacular. It's not even moderately successful, if I'm honest, with just one placed horse in seven attempts at the Dunstall Park track.

So, you're probably wondering why he features today for SotD or maybe I've lost the plot! The thing is that his yard has recently acquired a horse that is somewhat of an all-weather specialist, particularly here at Wolverhampton and the horse is Steelcut.

Steelcut's A/W record is 7 wins from 31 (22.6%) for 7.7pts profit: a ROI of 24.8%, whilst his place strike rate is 48.4% rewarding E/W backers with a profit of 19.6pts (31.6% ROI).These figures are respectable enough, but the strike rate rises to 23.5% over today's 5 furlong trip with four wins from seventeen contests, whilst those 17 races have seen him placed an impressive ten times, generating E/W profits of some 14.8pts (43.5% ROI)

Yet, it's at Wolverhampton where he really seems to come alight with 5 wins from 19 (26.3%) for a level stakes profit of 11.4pts at SP (+60% ROI) and eleven placed finishes in those 19 races (57.9%) for profits of 26.6pts (70% ROI). All of Steelcut's four wins over the minimum 5f trip have come here at Wolverhampton from just 11 attempts, this 36.4% strike rate has produced 6.4pts profit (58.2% ROI), whilst the 8/11 (72.7%) place strike rate has benefited E/W followers to the tune of 21.3pts (96.8%).

He looked like he was coming back to his best form last time out when second here over C&D a month ago, when he defied his 40/1 odds to beat all bar Another Citizen who reopposes today, but our selection is 6lbs better off today than that previous encounter and whilst Steelcut is well drawn is stall 2, Another Citizen is out wide on box 12.

Based on the plethora of stats I've produced for this one, the best strike rate and ROI for this horse seems to point to an E/W bet in a 5 furlong contest at Wolverhampton, so to me it's quite simple to call the play as just that! I've just taken 17.0 on Betfair for the win and 4.30 for a place and the best odds on offer from a traditional bookie was 7/1 BOG at the time of posting (1.00 am!). This price was available from both Bet365 and BetVictor, but you might get a better price later by taking the opportunity to...

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PS A full market was available at 10.00am and 12/1 BOG was on offer to all.

 

Stat of the Day, 1st December 2012

Stat of the Day 01/12/12

Stat of the Day 01/12/12

Stat of the Day, 1st December 2012

A good day for SotD yesterday, as Let's Get Serious overturned the odds on favourite Rick (who was disappointing, it must be said!). The 5.5pts profit from that race ensured we made an overall profit for November too. (just!)

Our mount travelled well throughout and jumped excellently for his chase debut. Early BOG backers were also rewarded as our advised 11/2 shot won at half that price: 11/4! The official distance was 8 lengths, but the horse was eased down after the last fence and the winning margin could have been much bigger. I'll be keeping an eye out for his next contest.

We're moving back to the All-Weather today to avoid the mud and it's a late one for us today. We're going for the penultimate race on the Dunstall Park, which is a Class 6 Handicap event over 7 furlongs and 32 yards and we're expecting 12 runners to brave the cold for the...

8.50 Wolverhampton

Last autumn saw a change in fortune for Alan Swinbank and his handicap runners at Wolverhampton. His record here had been pretty patchy, but since last September, he's had his horses running really well here.

His last 14 handicap contests here since then have yielded 5 winners and 5 other placings. These results have given his backers a profit of 14pts, whilst E/W punters find themselves almost 26pts to the good.

There's just one Swinbank runner this evening and that's today's SotD selection Quan.

Quan was a fairly expensive purchase as a 2yr old and after a couple of poor runs over unsuitable trips, settled into some form of consistency. He finished third on two successive occasions before winning his maiden on his first attempt on an all-weather surface, when he was victorious at 2/1 over today's trip at Southwell a fortnight ago. He looks to be well treated at the weights for his handicap debut and based on him being placed in three of his five previous starts and Alan Swinbank's recent place strike rate of 71% here, I'd expect him to be on the premises this evening.

A check on the market at 11.00am showed him available at 7/1 BOG with Stan James and therefore, my play today is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Quan at 7/1 BOG with Stan James, but please feel free to...

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P.S. last Saturday's selection Saunta, who narrowly missed out on a place for us at 14/1 E/W, looks to have decent chance of breaking her maiden tag in the 5.50 race this evening. She's currrently 11/2 with BetVictor.

 

Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2012

Stat of the Day 23/11/12

Stat of the Day 23/11/12

Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2012

No play yesterday, as Diplomatic was withdrawn shortly after lunch, so we turn our attention to Friday's programme and I'm playing it safe weather-wise by staying away from the turf meetings and their small fields, which seem to offer little value today.

We're off to the Black Country for a spin on Dunstall Park polytrack, where nine runners are set to contest a Class 5 maiden for 3 to 4 yr olds. It's a modest, but competitive-looking 6 furlong race as we take on the...

4.40 Wolverhampton

2011/12 have been good times for David Simcock in non-handicap events here at Wolverhampton, as he has saddled up 13 winners from 61 (21.3%) and a total of 32 of those runners have made the frame for a place strike rate of 52.5%, which is a decent return in what can often prove tricky types of races to be successful in.

David has actually got four runners at Wolverhampton this afternoon/evening, but three of those are running in handicap contests, leaving us with one: Saunta.

Saunta is making only her third outing today after what can best be described as modest form previously. Last of three on Ffos Las ground that was too soft for her and a more respectable 5th last time out here at Wolverhampton. On that occasion, she looked like she wanted further than the bare minimum trip and the extra furlong today should suit her. She's a half-sister to several winners at 6 furlongs and beyond and her breeding tends to suggest that today's trip will be right for her.

She was ridden by Martin Lane on her previous two outings, but the booking of Phillip Makin for today's event is seen as a positive move. Phillip is in truly magnificent form himself, scoring 5 winners from 12 over the last week.

At 10.35am the best price available was 17/2 BOG with BetVictor and 8/1 BOG generally, so today's call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Saunta at 17/2 with BetVictor, but if you prefer to use a different bookmaker, you can always...

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