Tag Archives: Wolverhampton racecourse

Stat of the Day, 19th December 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

2.05 Ludlow : Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 2/1 (Chased winner, led briefly 5th, lost 2nd before 4 out, soon weakened and last home, 33 lengths off the pace!)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Elzaam's Dream @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly was a runner-up over course and distance when last seen 17 days ago. She was partnered by today's jockey, David Probert, for the first time that day and was only beaten by a neck. She was, however, a little more than two lengths clear of Seraphim back in fourth place, who herself has since reappeared here last Saturday as a winner.

After making a mess of the original post last night, I'm going to keep the stats pretty simple today with a look at he trainer's record at this venue in recent years, as...

...Ron Harris' runners are 19 from 149 (12.75% SR) for 132.04pts (+88.6% ROI) backed blindly in Class 4-6 handicaps here since the start of 2016. These are good numbers for non-top level yard, but I should point out that the profit and ROI are both skewed by a couple of 16/1 winners and a 33/1 success that paid out at 101/1 on the Betfair SP.

I rarely back horses at double digit odds and I certainly don't advocate backing 33/1 shots at Wolverhampton too often, so let's focus on those of the original 149 runners who were sent off shorter than 10/1, shall we?

Yes, Chris, let's do that, I almost hear you shout and you'd be right to, because those runners are a more realistic 14 from 59 (23.7% SR) for 44.4pts (+75.3% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 8/39 (20.5%) for 13.79pts (+35.4%) at Class 6
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 30.88pts (+128.7%) with jockey David Probert
  • 6/15 (40%) for 39.76pts (+265.1%) during December to February
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 16.71pts (+104.5%) with female runners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 13.98pts (+87.4%) with David Probert at Class 6
  • 4/19 (21.05%) for 3.35pts (+17.65%) from 3 yr olds
  • and 4/16 (25%) for 7.06pts (+44.1%) this year alone...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Elzaam's Dream @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by the first to show, Hills at 4.45pm on Wednesday. They were still best priced of all at 6.55pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2019

Friday's pick was...

2.10 Bangor : Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/1 (Close up in rear, went 4th 4 out, ridden 2 out, no impression and lost 3rd flat)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

7.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG

...in an 11-runner (was 13!), Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m1½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 6 yr old Mare who won LTO on yard debut for David Evans over course and distance a week ago. She was coming off a 22-weeks break last time, so is entitled to improve for having had a run despite a 3lb rise in weight today.

Jockey Clifford Lee is 4 from 16 (25% SR) for 19.92pts (+124.5% ROI) over the last 14 days including 4/7 (57.1%) for 28.92pts (+413.1%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter, from which he is 3/4 (75%) for 20.95pts (+523.6%) for trainer David Evans.

The pair are actually 8/27 (29.6% SR) for 49.26pts (+182.44% ROI) this year, including...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 54pts (+300%) on the A/W
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 56.1pts (+330.1%) in handicaps
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 56pts (+622.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 31.35pts (+447.9%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 4/4 (100%) for 38.14pts (+953.5%) over 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs
  • 3/10 (30%) for 22.3pts (+223%) at Class 6
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 22.37pts (+745.8%) with LTO winners

They team up twice today with Sea Fox in the 7.50 race as well as our pick, a 6 yr old mare who is 5 from 24 (20.8% SR) for 8.09pts (+33.7% ROI) in handicaps here at Wolverhampton, including...

  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 10.09pts (+45.9%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 11.09pts (+52.8%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 16.09pts (+100.6%) in 2018/19
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 17.09pts (+113.9%) at 8/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 13.15pts (+101.2%) over this 9.5f C&D
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 10.12pts (+77.8%) within a fortnight of her last run
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.12pts (+189%) after a top 2 finish LTO
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 9.43pts (+67.3%) at Class 6 (she's also 2/9 at C5!)
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 9.18pts (+183.6%) after a win LTO...

...whilst in 8-13 runner handicaps over this course and distance at 8/1 and shorter for less than £4,000 prize money, Sunshineandbubbles is 4 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 19.15pts (+273.6% ROI) since the start of 2018 and these include 3/5 (60%) at Class 6, 3/5 (60%) with a fortnight of her last run and 2 from 2 after a win last time out...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG as offered by 888Sport & Bet365 respectively at 5.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 7.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2019

Monday's pick was...

1.15 Musselburgh : Castletown @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/2 (Tracked leaders in 5th, pushed along and outpaced after 12th, never on terms after : ran like a pig if truth be told)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Apprentice Handicap for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner.

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has been a model of consistency since switching to Karen McLintock's yard last year, winning all five starts for his new handler, including of relevance today...

  • 4/4 this year
  • 4/4 at 2m/2m0.5f
  • 4/4 in handicaps
  • 3/3 on A/W, all on tapeta
  • 1/1 at Wolverhampton
  • 1/1 over course and distance
  • 1/1 at Class 5

In addition to the above, he has also landed a Class 4 hurdle over 2m4f for Karen McLintock, proving that stamina shouldn't be an issue.

Sean Davis rides him for the first time and whilst his own career stats of 88/1408 (6.25% SR) for a loss of 367.3pts (-26.1% ROI) aren't exactly inspiring, he is actually 5 from 31 (16.1% SR) for 74.67pts (+240.9% ROI) profit here at Wolverhampton at an A/E of 1.77 and these numbers include 3/11 (27.3%) for 16.67pts (+151.6%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter.

Trainer Karen McLintock comes here after hitting 3 winners from 11 over the past fortnight, including 2 from 5 here at Wolverhampton, where longer-term her runners are 9/25 (36% SR) for 20.62pts (+82.5% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • 9/15 (60%) for 30.62pts (+204.1%) at 8/1 and shorter
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 24.7pts (+130%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 16.92pts (+76.9%) in handicaps
  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 23.41pts (+212.8%) from 5 yr olds
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 16.26pts (+147.8%) with her only runner at the track that day
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 17.82pts (+297%) from LTO winners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 16.55pts (+165.5%) at Class 5
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.21pts (+180.2%) with her only runner of the day
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 1.97pts (+98.5%) over this 2m0.5f course and distance...

...and when she has been represented by a sole 5 yr old handicapper sent off at 8/1 and shorter in a field of 9-13 runners, she has 5 wins from 5 (100% SR) for 22.26pts (+445.2% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG  as was offered by Bet365, whilst Hills & Sky Bet (both non-BOG until raceday) were slightly longer/shorter respectively at 4.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.25 Lingfield : Pearl Spectre @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, led 2f out, ridden and headed just inside final furlong, no extra)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

Probably about the bottom end of the odds range I'm comfortable with, but (a) there should still be some value about the price and (b) I think our boy has more than a 28.5% chance of winning here, but what of him?

Well, he's a 5 yr old gelding who in 10 starts this year has 3 wins, 4 runner-up finishes and one other place and has been the runner-up in each of his last three starts (more on that shortly). To date, he has 4 wins and 3 places from 15 on the All-Weather and these include of relevance today...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 13 in handicaps
  • 3+3 from 12 going left handed
  • 3+2 from 9 on Standard going
  • 3+3 from 8 this year
  • 3+2 from 9 after 10-20 days off track
  • 3 from 5 here at Wolverhampton
  • 3 from 4 at 1m3f-1m4f
  • 2+1 from 3 at odds shorter than 7/2
  • 2+1 from 3 as favourite
  • and 2 from 3 at 1m4f

His trainer, Grant Tuer, is 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) for 11.34pts (+94.5% ROI) in handicaps on this this track over the last 12 months, including 5 from 7 (71.4%) for 16.34pts (+233.5%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, from which there are 3 winners from 4 (75%) for 10.4pts (+260%) over this 1m4f course and distance.

And now back to the horse's recent 222 form line, which is more common than you'd possibly think, since...in UK Flat/AW Class 3-5 handicaps at odds of 11/1 and shorter, those with a 222 form line who were beaten by less than 15 lengths LTO in the previous 2 months are 97 from 388 (25% SR) for 101.1pts (+26.1% ROI) since 2013, with the following applicable today...

  • 65/174 (37.4%) for 58.8pts (+33.8%) at odds of 6/5 to 7/2
  • 20/59 (33.9%) for 49.6pts (+84%) from 5 yr olds
  • 15/46 (32.6%) for 37.9pts (+82.4%) at 1m3f-1m4f

...whilst if you wanted a micro based around the above with near 40% strike rates and ROI, then 2-8 yr olds over 5f to 1m4f at 6/5 to 7/2 are 58/149 (38.9% SR) for 58.5pts (+39.3% ROI)...

...pointing towardss...a 1pt win bet on Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG as was offered in a handful of places at 5.00pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (BOG from midnight) were a quarter point longer for those not expecting a drift. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th October 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

5.45 Southwell : Cold Harbour @ 6/1 3rd at 5/1 (Led 1f, tracked leaders, driven to lead again over 2f out, soon ridden, headed over 1f out, modest 3rd inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mischief Star @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Tapeta worth £4464 to the winner...

Why?...

This improving 2 yr old colt is the form horse here, winning two of his last four and also making the frame on one other occasion. He won more comfortably than a one length margin would suggest last time out, when landing a similar Class 4, 7f Nursery over this course and distance 12 days ago and I'm not convinced a 5lb rise elevating him to top weight will be enough to stop him improving upon a record that also show 2 wins and a place from 4 over this 7f trip and 2 wins and a place from three runs going left handed.

Jockey David Nolan is 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 14.16pts (+101.2% ROI) over the last three years here at Wolverhampton on horses trained by David O'Meara, including...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 18.16pts (+181.6%) on those with a race in the previous 25 days
  • 5/10 (50%) for 18.16pts (+181.6%) on those sent off shorter than 8/1
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 12.07pts (+120.7%) on handicappers

And I mentioned he was top weight here today, conceding 3lbs or more to all his 10 rivals, but that might not necessarily be a cause for concern, as over the last three years here at Wolverhampton, the top (or joint top) weighted horses in Nurseries are 19 from 54 (35.2% SR) for 47.9pts (+88.7%) when sent off at 7/1 or shorter and these include of note/relevance today...

  • 15/43 (34.9%) for 48.5pts (+112.8%) conceding 0-3lbs to the next horse in the weights
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 28.6pts (+168.2%) in October
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 25.8pts (+135.7%) over this 7f C&D
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 1.79pts (+12.8%) from LTO winners
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 10.93pts (+99.3%) at Class 4...

...with those carrying 0-3lbs more than the next horse over 7f in October winning 3 of 6 (50% SR) for 18.8pts (+313.2% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Mischief Star @ 10/3 BOG as was offered by Bet365 at 5.40pm on Tuesday, whilst Hills were slightly shorter at 3/1. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th October 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

6.25 Wolverhampton : Trouble Shooter @ 7/2 BOG 4th @5/2 (Slowly into stride, held up behind, outpaced over 2f out, never able to challenge - poor ride)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

8.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roving Mission @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, AW Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m1 1/2f on tapeta worth £3429 to the winner...

Why?...

Ralph 'Raif' Beckett is in form. And how!

In the last fortnight (prior to Wednesday) he's run twenty horses, eight of which have won. 40% winners for +47.5 points profit. And he's already had a 25/1 winner on Wednesday!

When teaming up with Harry Bentley during this run they've gone 7/15 (47%, +47 points). The 30 day Bentley/Beckett pairing is 11 from 43, +36.47. These guys are hot right now.

Longer term, Beckett has also rediscovered his touch with handicap debutants, as Roving Mission is. In the past year, he's 12/55 (22%, and a further 22% placed) for +33 points.

All four of her runs are working out well, and she certainly doesn't look over-faced in this 0-70 company...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Roving Mission @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by William Hill 5pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.10 Newcastle : Equiano Springs @ 13/2 BOG 14th at 15/2 (Held up early, pulled hard and soon tracking leader, every chance over 1f out, weakened quickly final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.25 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Trouble Shooter @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, AW Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m6f on tapeta worth £3479 to the winner...

Why?...

Shaun Keightley is a trainer to note. He has shown himself to perform especially well with last time out winners, which is a sign that he gets them started out in handicaps off the right sort of mark (when they have any ability, not all of them do of course).

Take Trouble Shooter for instance. This three-year-old son of Delegator comes here on a five-timer after wins at Thirsk, Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle.

The specifics of that last time out winner record are 9/21 (4 further places). That's a 43% win and 62% place strike rate, good for 20.83 points profit on the win part (A/E 1.95).

His sire, Delegator, is normally associated with sprinters. But of the 110 runs from his progeny over staying trips in the last two years, he's proudly watched (metaphorically at least) 18 of them prevail. They have collectively accumulated 85.88 units of profit (A/E 1.36).

Delegators go well on the all weather, too: 50 wins from 399 starts for +72.80 (A/E 1.17).

Keightley has struck up a good relationship with 'forgotten' jockey, Josephine Gordon. Together they've notched nine winners from 52 runners (+16.83, A/E 1.71), including this lad where they're unbeaten in four.

If those are positive stats, allow me to offer one negative stat in relation to the favourite as I write, Waterfront. His (excellent) trainer, Simon Crisford, is having a difficult month: just one winner from 37 runners, and all four that were sent off shorter than 2/1 in the past fortnight beaten.

It's a competitive heat, but I'm not sure today's pick has finished improving just yet...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Trouble Shooter @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by William Hill and bet365 at 5.15pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th October 2019

Thursday's pick was...

5.30 Chelmsford : Souter Johnnie @ 3/1 BOG 12th at 7/4 (Keen in mid-division on inside, closer chasing leaders over 1f out, hung left and losing place when carried left inside final furlong, eased soon after)

Friday's pick runs in the...

8.25 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlie D @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £5,434 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4yr old gelding is running really well right now, finishing 211313 in his last six outings and has to date achieved the following of relevance regarding today's race...

  • 5 wins, 4 places from 15 in handicaps
  • 5+2 from 14 in a tongue tie
  • 5+4 from 13 in cheekpieces
  • 5+2 from 11 during August to October
  • 5+2 from 9 at 4/1 and shorter
  • 4+2 from 9 as a 4 yr old
  • 2+4 from 9 here at Wolverhampton
  • 3 from 8 in fields of 7 or fewer runners
  • 2+3 from 7 with Richard Kingscote in the saddle
  • 2+1 from 4 over trips of 2m to 2m1f
  • and 2 from 3 within a week of his last run

He's by Animal Kingdom, whose offspring are 7 from 20 (35% SR) for 5.01 (+25% ROI) at trips of 1m6f and beyond, including...

  • 7/10 (70%) for 15.01pts (+150.1%) at odds of evens to 4/1
  • 4/10 (40%) for 5.21pts (+52.1%) over trips of 2m to 2m1f
  • and 4 from 5 (80%) for 10.21pts (+204.2%) over trips of 2m to 2m1f at odds of evens to 4/1

And his trainer Tom Dascombe is 14 from 43 (32.6% SR) for 60.2pts (+140.1% ROI) since the start of 2016 with horses turned back out after less than a week's rest, including of note today...

  • 12/35 (34.3%) for 62.9pts (+179.8%) in handicaps
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 17.4pts (+91.8%) with Richard Kingscote in the saddle
  • 5/20 (25%) for 30.78pts (+153.9%) at Class 4
  • 5/5 (100%) for 22.64pts (+452.8%) from those placed 3rd LTO
  • and 3/6 950%) for 12.17pts (+202.9%) on the A/W...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Charlie D @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power & Hills at 5.35pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.25 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th October 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.05 Hexham : Misfits @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Held up, headway 15th, led before mistake last, soon headed, stayed on, just held )

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.25 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Affluence @ 7/1

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m6f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Going to keep it quite short and simple today with this 4 yr old gelding who has been showing some decent form in his last few runs. He finished 112 in three Class 6 handicaps, before not being outclassed in fourth place stepped up to Class 5.

I'm pretty much ignoring his last effort, where he was well beaten at Worcester four weeks ago, as that was a Class 4 hurdle! I suppose it could have helped with the stamina side of things.

He's now back on the level and dropped back to Class 6, where all three career wins have come and as he's running off a mark effectively 1lb lower than his last win, I expect him to go well again today.

Trainer Martin Smith's handicappers dropping in class on the level are 8 from 26 (30.8% SR) for 34pts (+130.7% ROI) profit when sent off at 10/1 or shorter over the last five years and these include of relevance today...

  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 35.67pts (+169.8%) from those unplaced last time out
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 30.6pts (+145.7%) from male runners
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 19.2pts (+147.9%) on the All-Weather
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 16.77pts (+152.4%) with 4 yr olds
  • 3/6 (50%) for 11.36pts (+189.4%) in 2019
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 8.74pts (+124.8%) at Class 6...

...whilst at Classes 5 to 7, 3-6 yr old males on the A/W after being unplaced LTO are 4/8 (50% SR) for 20.9pts (+261.2% ROI)...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Affluence @ 7/1 as was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday, but they don't offer BOG until the morning of racing although you could go BOG with Bet365 for a point less. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th August 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.15 Lingfield : Bartat @ 3/1 BOG  6th at 9/2 (Mid-division, headway on outside over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, no extra closing stages)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Street Poet @ 6/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f  on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a very much in-form 6 yr old gelding seeking a fifth win on the bounce, after six excellent runs here at Wolverhampton where he has finished 221111, the latest of which was a win at this Class 4 grade 20 days ago.

His handicap record at this venue now stands at 6 wins and 5 places from 13 efforts, all in 10-13 runner contests on the Tapeta and these include of note today...

  • 6 wins, 1 place from 7 after 11-25 days rest
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 9 at odds of 5/2 t0 13/2
  • 5 wins from 7 as a non-favourite
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 8 this year
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 7 at the same class as his last run
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 wearing no headgear
  • 4 wins from 4 as an LTO winner
  • 4 wins from 4 in the second half of the year
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 5 over course and distance
  • 1 from 1 under jockey Danny Redmond
  • and 1 from 1 at Class 4...

...whilst his trainer, Michael Herrington has also had more general success at this venue himself, notching up 13 winners from 46 (28.3% SR) for 61.8pts (+134.3% ROI) here over the past 18 months, including...

  • 12/37 (32.4%) for 64.6pts (+174.7%) in handicaps
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 49.1pts (+153.5%) at odds of 11/4 to 10/1
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 39.8pts (+173.2%) at 11-25 days since last run
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 62.4pts (+366.7%) from 5/6 yr olds
  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 40.1pts (+445.4%) from LTO winners
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 11.8pts (+147.7%) over today's course and distance
  • 1/1 (100%) for 12.83pts (+1283%) with Danny Redmond in the saddle
  • and 1 from 5 (20%) for 8.83pts (+176.6%) at Class 4

...and finally, a quick look at Michael Herrington's record with LTO winners shows that since the start of 2014, they are 12 from 52 (23.1% SR) for 31.1pts (+59.9% ROI) in handicaps when sent off at odds ranging from 5/2 to 10/1, including...

  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 39.8pts (+113.7%) on the A/W
  • 9/29 (31%) for 36.4pts (+125.7%) after 11-25 days rest
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 13.6pts (+52.2%) at the same class as LTO
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 31.3pts (+142.1%) with 5/6 yr olds
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 32.8pts (+172.5%) on Tapeta
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 36.1pts (+277.6%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 2/2 (100%) for 13.82pts (+691%) over 1m½f
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 12.83pts (+1283%) with Danny Redmond in the saddle

...all of which suggests chancing .. a 1pt win bet on Street Poet @ 6/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.05pm on Sunday, although the non-BOG until morning pair of Betfair & PP were offering half a point more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!