Stat of the Day, 8th October 2012
A poor show from Worth A Kings yesterday, I'm afraid. He made a mistake at the 4th fence and that was pretty much game over for us. he dropped to the rear of the pack and stayed there. 3 of the 10 runners were pulled up and our horse only beat one other home. There wasn't even any joy for the traders amongst you, as he drifted from my advised 14/1 to an SP of 20/1.
It's the usual Monday morning warning today ie poor quality racing etc etc, but we're heading to Berkshire to visit the UK's only flat racing figure-of-8 track. It's another tea-time assignment for SotD today, as we take on a 12-runner Class 4 Handicap over a mile on soft ground. To you and me though, it's the...
There's expected to be plenty of give in the ground at Windsor today judging by the official going report declaring it as Soft. The are also further showers expected during the course of the day, so by the time we get around to the 5.20 race it may well have cut up quite a bit, which will hopefully play into the hands of our selection for today: Myboyalfie.
I've gone with Myboyalfie today, partly due to recent form and also because of his ability to handle testing conditions: experience that may well prove vital today.
Myboyalfie has certainly given his connections a good run for their money in handicaps recently having been in the first three home in each of his last 5 handicaps in a form line reading 31132. The two wins came in Class 5 events and one was on heavy ground and the other on soft ground. He has stepped up to Class 4 recently and also proved his versatility at this level. A second place finish last time out on heavy ground further backed his credentials on testing ground, whilst two third place runs (one on A/W and one on Good to Firm) show he's a decent turn of foot on faster ground too.
Yet despite remaining in such decent form, he is still only rated at 1lb above the mark off which he won at Chepstow in June (heavy). He will certainly relish these conditions today and I'd expect him to give another good account of himself today.
I expected the early price to be around the 4/1 mark if I'm honest (perhaps I've read it wrong) and an eventual SP of around 7/2, but a look at the early market shows Myboyalfie to generally be a 6/1 BOG chance, whilst Corals go 13/2 non-BOG. for the sake of half a point, I suggest a BOG bookmaker, in the event of a drift in the market.
And so, as it's Monday and we've a better price than I expected, I'm going to err on the side of caution and I'm staking 0.5pts E/W on Myboyalfie at 6/1 BOG. My logic here is that he wins, I'll make 3.75pts profit which still exceeds the 7/2 I was expecting, but I then have the safety net of the place bet which would still generate a small (25%) profit on the day.
But as always I recommend that you...
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