Tag Archives: William Buick

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

7.40 Newcastle : Blindingly @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Tracked leaders in main group, ridden and hung left over 2f out, weakened under pressure inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dee Ex Bee @ 11/4 BOG

...in the 7-runner, Group 3 Longines Sagaro Stakes for 4yo+ over 2m on Good To Firm ground worth £34026 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old Colt had decent runner-up finishes in both of last year's Chester Vase and The Derby, before losing his way slightly. That said, he was far from disgraced in finishing fourth stepping up in trip in the St Leger, which was his final effort of a busy/tiring season.

That was quite a while ago, but he looked like he'd be able to get today's trip and if ready for the challenge, he's certainly well rested this time!

Jockey William Buick is in good nick riding 7 winners from 22 over the last fortnight and rides this track well, having 43 winners from 257 (16.7% SR) for 31.7pts (+12.3% ROI) over the last 5 seasons, including 6 wins from 23 (26.1%) in Group 3 contests that have generated profits of 9.52pts (+41.4%)

His record here at Ascot for trainer Mark Johnston stands at 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 3.47pts (+20.4% ROI) with the following of interest/relevance today...

  • in non-hcps : 4/15 (26.7%) for 5.47pts (+36.5%)
  • at Class 1 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 2.24pts (+16%)
  • on Good to Firm : 3/10 (30%) for 7.75pts (+77.5%)
  • males are 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.47pts (+127.5%)
  • and for prizes of less than £35k : 2/5 (40%) for 1.95pts (+39%)

...whilst from the above... Buick + Johnston + males + 6/1 & shorter + non-hcps = 4/4 (100% SR) for 16.47pts (+411.8% ROI) including 3/3 at Class 1, 3/3 on Gd to Firm and 2 from 2 in Class 1 races on Good to Firm ground...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dee Ex Bee @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available  at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 8th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

6.00 Musselburgh : Zeshov @ 11/4 BOG WON at 6/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, led approaching 2f out, ridden and ran on)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG  

In the 11-runner, Class 2 Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) for 3yo over 1m4f on Good ground, worth £62250 to the winner...

Why?

Going to keep this one relatively simple with this in-form 3 yr old who has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 runs this year, including wins at both 1m4f and 1m6f, ensuring stamina shouldn't be an issue today.

He has also won at this grade (LTO 14 days ago) and he has 2 wins and 2 places from the four occasions that William Buick has been in the saddle.

His trainer Charlie Appleby is bang amongst the winners again with a 4 from 8 record over the last fortnight, from which Mr Buick is 4 from 7, whilst over the last three seasons, the Appleby string are 17 from 100 (17% SR) for 37.6pts (+37.6% ROI) profit here at Ascot, from which...

  • William Buick is 12/62 (19.4%) for 36.7pts (+59.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 5/38 (13.2%) for 40.8pts (+107.3%)
  • over 1m4f course and distance : 4/19 (21.1%) for 26.9pts (+141.8%)

And finally, I think it's worth noting that Charlie Appleby's LTO winners running at Class 1/2 over 8.5 to 13.5 furlongs are 24 from 94 (25.5% SR) for 49.2pts (+52.3% ROI), including...

  • 3 yr olds at 12/45 (26.7%) for 52.3pts (+116.2%)
  • under William Buick : 12/43 (27.9%) for 38.1pts (+88.6%)
  • at Class 2 : 12/38 (31.6%) for 19.4pts (+51.1%)
  • in 3 yo only races : 7/32 (21.9%) for 29.1pts (+90.9%)
  • after a break of less than 3 weeks : 10/25 (40%) for 27.7pts (+110.8%)
  • and here at Ascot : 3/12 (25%) for 12.4pts (+103.4%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair, BetStars, BetVictor & Paddy Power as of 7.20pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th July 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.00 Newmarket : Wissahickon @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 2/1 (Keen, raced wide early, tracked leader, pushed along over 3f out, ridden and weakened over 1f out)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.15 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blue Point @ 10/3 BOG

In a 14-runner, Group 1 contest for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £283550 to the winner...

Why?

An impressive display last time out when landing the Kings Stand over 5f at Royal Ascot 25 days ago for his first win in a Group 1 contest. He semed to get stronger as the race progressed and certainly didn't look like he'd been off the track for almost 9 months!

I think he'll come on again for having had a run and the step back up to 6f looks a logical one to me and his career stats suggest he'll relish the challenge faced today, as so far his record includes...

  • 5 wins & 2 places from 9 over 6f
  • 5 wins & 2 places from 8 under jockey William Buick
  • 4 wins & 2 places from 7 on Good to Firm ground
  • 4 wins & 1 place from 6 as favourite
  • 2 wins from 3 in July/August
  • 2 from 2 running 16-30 days after his last effort
  • 1 win & 1 place in fields of 12 or more runners
  • 1 from 1 this season
  • has a Gr 1 success to his name

He is trained by Charlie Appleby, whose overall record is both excellent and well-documented, so I won't bore you by repeating it, but you might not know that his record at this July meeting here at Newmarket stands at 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 17.43 pts (+45.9% ROI) profit over the last three (inc this one) years. And I'll keep this simple, but of those 38 entries...

  • those sent off at Evens to 7/1 are 9/29 (31%) for 26.43pts (+91.1%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 7/24 (29.2%) for 21.11pts (+88%)
  • ridden by William Buick : 4/15 (26.7%) for 8.72pts (+58.1%)
  • in fields of 12-14 runners : 5/11 (45.5%) for 23.57pts (+214.3%)

...and Appleby / Buick / July Meeting / 2016-18 / 6 to 7 furlongs / Evens to 7-1 / 12-14 runners = 3/4 (75% SR) for 15.77pts (+394.2% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Blue Point @ 10/3 BOGa price available from Bet365 & SunBets at 5.05pm on Friday with plenty of 3/1 BOG available elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

7.10 Chelmsford : Tropics @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 3/1 (Unruly in stalls, fly leapt start and lost all chance, always in rear)

Next up is Thursday's...

3.40 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOG

A 10-runner, Group 2 Fillies Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good To Firm ground worth £113420 to the winner...

Why?

With the obvious caveat about the ground maybe not suiting her (she'd probably be a fair shorter than 11/4 on softer), it's hard for me to look beyond this likeable, classy filly. She's already a Group 1 winner via last season's Prix Marcel Boussac and with two creditable runs in defeat at that level this season, she brings the best form to the table today.

That form was a decent fourth in the 1,000 Guineas before finishing as runner-up in the recent Oaks beating two of today's rivals in the process. William Buick is in the saddle and he's in great form right now, including winning twice at this festival already this week : one of which was for trainer Charlie Appleby and it's their relationship that I'm going to look at here.

I'm keeping it simple today, but the Appleby / Buick / Class 1 axis stands at 21 winners from 124 (16.9% SR) for 15.92pts (+12.8% ROI) profit since the start of 2016, so they're a fairly safe long-term bet. With respect to today's contest, those 124 runners are...

  • 19/100 (19%) for 31.9pts (+31.9%) after a top 4 finish LTO
  • 15/70 (21.4%) for 3.6pts (+5.1%) at odds of 5/4 to 6/1 (so they win plenty but get overbet)
  • 11/64 (17.2%) for 18.2pts (+28.4%) when tilting for prizes in excess of £40k
  • 10/60 (16.6%) for 12.8pts (+21.3%) when racing 11-30 days since their last run
  • 11/50 (22%) for 31.9pts (+63.8%) at the age of 3
  • 5/29 (17.2%) for 27.9pts (+96.2%) in June
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 15.4pts (+67.1%) here at Ascot
  • and 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.2pts (+107.4%) after running in a Group 1 race last time out.

And to be honest with you, those numbers allied to her form/ability is enough to convince me to part with my usual stake, but I can add another layer of data for reassurance via the fact that her "daddy" is the mighty Dubawi...

..and Dubawi offspring racing at Class 1 on the Flat over this 1m4f trip are 19/86 (22.1% SR) for 28.6pts (+33.3% ROI), from which...

  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 16/58 (27.6%) for 40.9pts (+70.5%)
  • competing for £50k+ : 10/53 (18.9%) for 14.1pts (+26.6%)
  • in June : 6/28 (21.4%) for 11.2pts (+40%)
  • at Ascot : 5/24 (20.8%) for 20.5pts (+85.5%)
  • at Group 2 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 27.3pts (+151.6%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 5/18 (27.8%) for 20.04pts (+111.3%)
  • and here at Royal Ascot : 2/7 (28.6%) for 17.96pts (+256.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOGwhich was widely available at 4.55pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

4.15 Kelso : Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 6/1 (Towards rear, reminder 4th, closed next, struggling before 3 out, stayed on approaching last, went 3rd towards finish)

We now continue with Thursday's...

4.35 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 3,  1m4½f  Flat Handicap (3yo) on good ground worth £11828 to the winner... 

Why?

Just three runs so far for this 3 yr old colt after finishing third in both starts as a two year old, both over 1m on good to soft ahead of a seasonal reappearance 19 days ago when winning a maiden over 1m4f despite coming off the back of a 226 day absence. He seemed to get the trip easily enough, but will, of course, need to find a bit more here on handicap debut.

The rest of the piece is centred around his trainer Charlie Appleby, about whom there are several threads of relevant data to suggest this horse should go well today, starting with...

...Charlie's record over the last 30 days...

...17 winners from 45 (37.8% SR) for 16.2pts (+35.9% ROI) suggests a yard in form and of these 45 runners :

  • on the Flat : 15/40 (37.5%) for 15.8pts (+39.6%)
  • handicappers : 6/17 (35.3%) for 6.58pts (+38.7%)
  • in Flat handicaps : 5/16 (31.25%) for 5.55pts (+34.7%)

...and now Charlie's handicappers having just a second run in a 90-day period...

...these are 35/153 (22.9% SR) for 62.9pts (+41.1% ROI), from which...

  • those ridden by today's jockey William Buick are 15/60 (25%) for 16.6pts (+27.7%)
  • those last seen 16-30 days earlier are 17/58 (29.3%) for 63.25pts (+109.1%)
  • LTO winners are 12/47 (25.5%) for 9.4pts (+20%)
  • Class 3 runners are 17/45 (37.8%) for 41.6pts (+92.5%)
  • in the month of May : 11/38 (29%) for 27pts (+71.1%)
  • and here at Chester : 1/1 (100%) for 1.22pts (+122%)

...then we'll look at Charlie's record on the Flat at trips of 1m3f to 1m5.5f over the last three seasons...

...where he is 30 from 110 (27.3% SR) for 92.1pts (+83.8% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 18/70 (25.7%) for 58.5pts (+83.5%)
  • in May : 9/24 (37.5%) for 17.9pts (+74.7%)
  • and at Class 3 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 10.03pts (+52.8%)

...next up is his record with handicap debutants at Classes 2 to 5 over trips of 1m2.5f to 1m6f...

..which shows 13 winners from 40 (32.5% SR) for 27.5pts (+68.8% ROI) with LTO winners scoring 10 times from 28 (35.7%) for 24.9pts (+88.8%).

...and I'll wrap up with his track record over the last seasons...

...with 5 of his 19 Chester runners (26.3% SR) winning to generate 2.19pts profit at an ROI of 11.5% (they clearly get backed!), from which handicappers fare best winning 4 of 11 (36.4%) for 7.15pts (+65%) profit.

...which all eventually steers us towards...a 1pt win bet on Ghostwatch @ 4/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor & Coral at 5.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2017

Wednesday's Result :

5.30 Catterick : Swansway @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 Close up, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.05 Newbury...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pilgrims Treasure @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

An unexposed three year old colt making only his fifth start having already landed one win and two places from his previous four runs. He was a decent second (only beaten by 0.75 lengths) behind a far more experienced rival last time out (4 weeks ago) and although the good to firm ground was probably far too quick for him, he still finished with clear daylight between himself and the chasing pack.

Having won on soft ground already, I'd suggest today's advised Good to Soft (might yet deteriorate) would be far more to his liking on a track where his stablemates have done well in the recent past, as...

...Trainer Charlie Appleby is 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 9.76pts (+27.9% ROI) here at Newbury over the last three seasons (including this one) and these runners include...

  • 3 yr olds @ 5/21 (23.8%) for 2.4pts (+11.3%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/16 (25%) for 1.3pts (+8%)
  • ridden by William Buick : 7/14 (50%) for 17.66pts (+126.2%)
  • over this 1m2f C&D : 3/8 (37.5%) for 0.92pts (+11.5%)
  • and those having their 2nd handicap run are 3/6 (50%) for 0.22pts (+3.68%)

The booking of William Buick is very pertinent in my opinion, as he has a 19.2% strike rate on this track since 2012 that has generated 50.8pts profit at an ROI of 26.3%, so it's fair to say he rides this course very well.

William is also in fine form, winning 17 of his 74 (23% SR) races over the past month, whilst Charlie Appleby's horses are 9/34 (26.5% SR) over the last fortnight and it's also worth noting that the pair work well together with 68 winners from 280 (24.3% SR) for 98.9pts (+35.3% ROI) profit since the start of 2016.

In addition to the excellent trainer/jockey stats above, one of my stored micro-systems tells me that since 2012, 3 yr olds who won two starts ago ahead of a runner-up finish LTO 21 to 60 days ago are 89/375 (23.7% SR) for 250.3pts (+66.8% ROI) profit when running over 5f to 1m2f on turf officially deemed as no faster than good to firm, nor any slower than good to soft.

In respect of today's contest, those 375 qualifiers contain the following profitable angles...

  • handicappers are 65/283 (23%) for 134.9pts (+47.7%)
  • males are 51/224 (22.8%) for 161.3pts (+72%)
  • at Class 4 : 26/91 (28.6%) for 50.6pts (+55.6%)
  • and those racing over the same C&D as LTO are 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.14pts (+77.9%)

...which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Pilgrims Treasure @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor & Totesport at 6.35pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.05 Newbury...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th September 2015

Stat of the Day, 30th September 2015

I really thought Jimmy Shan was going to hold on and make all at Southwell and he'd jumped impeccably at the head of affairs until making a bit of a mess at the last.

He lost all momentum after the poor jump and a two length lead quickly turned into a two length deficit. Full marks to horse and jockey for rallying to have another go, but they lost the contest in that split second.

The end result was a runner-up finish, beaten by a length and a quarter at a very short 7/4, quite a way lower than our 3/1 advised odds. In fairness, he ran like a 7/4 shot until that error and if anything the last jump is the worst one to get wrong.

It puts paid to my faint hope of clearing a profit from September, but I still hope to go out on a high with the winner of Wednesday's...

8.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Where Charlie Appleby's 2yr old colt, Carrington seems a touch overpriced at 11/2 BOG to me for this Class 3, 7 furlong nursery.

Charlie Appleby has to be considered one of the masters of the A/W handicap and I've few reservations about backing him pretty much blindly, thanks to a 1-in-3 strike rate (65 winners from 195 runners) that has generated 27.8pts profit at betfair SP, a return of 14.3% above stakes invested and a figure that whilst already decent can be bettered by use of the BOG bookie.

I know that most of you aren't too keen on blanket backing a trainer's runners and like to be more selective, so with today's race in mind, here's how those 195 runners stack up...

  • those priced at 13/8 to 8/1 are 42/138 (30.4% SR) for 38.95pts (+28.2% ROI)
  • those running 6 to 25 days since their last run are 35/80 (43.75% SR) for 31.9pts (+39.9% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 17/44 (38.6% SR) for 10.1pts (+23% ROI)

All three are nice profitable angles and I should probably add at this point the fact that here at Kempton, those handicappers are 20/67 (29.9% SR) for 10.8pts (+12% ROI).

I kept that one back,because I want to look at Charlie's runners here in a little more detail. (dotting the i and crossing the t, so to speak). To which end, these 67 Kempton handicappers are...

  • 16/48 (33.33% SR) from male runners producing 12.84pts at 26.8% ROI.
  • those running after a 6 to 25 day break are 13/31 (41.9% SR) for 13.91pts (+44.9% ROI)
  • those competing at 7f to 1m are 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 12pts (+46.1% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 6.45pts (+38% ROI)
  • those ridden by today's jockey William Buick are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 5.86pts (+34.4% ROI)

I know some of you like a little composite microsystem from my filtering, so here goes...Charlie Appleby's male Kempton A/W handicappers running over 6f to a mile, 6 to 45 days after their last run are 9/23 (39.1% SR) for 12.8pts at an ROI of 55.5%. From this 2yr olds are 4/8 for 3pts and William Buick is 4/6 for 9.2pts.

And that's why I've taken my 11/2 BOG on Carrington with Coral. Betway are currently offering the same price (but won't go BOG until 10 in the morning) and there's plenty of 5/1 BOG around, so why not...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 25th September 2015

Stat of the Day, 25th September 2015

For the second day in a row, we got a value price thanks to the presence of a short priced favourite that I didn't fancy. Both times, the fav went unplaced, but unfortunately we fell short too!

Our 5/1 about Amber Mustique was a good call as she went off at 7/2, but despite a promising run, could only manage third place and whilst she'll no doubt win races in the future, I could do with a couple right now!

I'm hoping that a trip to HQ will start some form of recovery, where a good start would be by finding the winner of the...

5.25 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

At 11/4 BOG, American Artist is towards the lower end of where I'm comfortable for an SotD selection, but there is some statistical justification in the selection of tRoger Varian's 3yr old colt for this Class 2, Flat handicap over nine furlongs.

That way, you can insure against a shortening of the price, or if you prefer, you can always take your chances and wait for the reasoning.

The first thing to consider is the yard's recent form, as that can often be a good indicator to a horse's chances and Roger's string are 10/30 (33.33% SR) for 52.1pts (+173.7% ROI) in the last fortnight alone, so blindly backing them of late has been very lucrative indeed.

It has also been profitable to blindly back every single one of Roger Varian's handicap runners ever since his first one, Eton Forever, stepped out in early April 2011 to win at 10/1 at Doncaster and the team have hardly looked back since.

In pure numerical terms, the yard have had 126 winners from 638 handicap runners (19.75% SR) for level stakes profits of 101.9pts (+16% SR) from blindly following them. In layman's terms, £20 on each would have made you just over £2000 in just less than four and a half years on a bet and forget basis.

I could list several ways in which you could increase the ROI, but I'll just stick with a couple of simple ones for you today...

  1. 3 yr olds are 94/427 (22% SR) for 124.3pts (+29.1% ROI)
  2. Those running at trips of 9f to 12.5f are 55/248 (22.2% SR) for 102pts (+41.1% ROI)

There's also a 19% return on backing Class 2 runners and a 33.3% strike rate when William Buick is in the saddle, but the two above are the largest sample sizes and when put together still give enough bets to provide meaningful data, as 3yo's at 1m1f to 1m4.5f are 44/170 (25.9% SR) for 114.4pts (+67.3% ROI).

Which brings us nicely to American Artist, an in-form 3yr old colt, whose last four finishes (all in hcps) read 1121 with the sole defeat only coming by a neck in a tight finish. He's 2 from 3 in handicaps 8 to 15 days since his last run and has won on the only other occasion that William Buick was in the saddle.

His recent form and the fact he was last seen just a fortnight ago reminded me of something else I look for and the upshot is that Roger Varian's 3 and 4 yr olds running 11 to 15 days after a top4 finish last time out are 21/83 (25.3% SR) for 25.3pts at an ROI of 30.5% and I'd love for American Artist to extend that record for his and my own sake!

Hills are offering 11/4 BOG here, but they removed my BOG privileges this afternoon (probably due to the 11/1 winner I had on Stat Picks), so I've gone with Bet365 at the same odds, whilst there are a couple of others also around that price, as you'll see when you...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Newmarket

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Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2015

No luck/joy/whatever at Warwick on Tuesday afternoon as Belmount went down to a half length defeat as a victim of a truly magnificent ride by Richard Johnson aboard Dursey Sound.

Our boy had led 2 out, was headed over the last regained the lead on the flat and then was out battled in the shadow of the post in a pulsating finish to a 3m+ slog.

No complaints about the run, but the cold spell continues and opposing an odds on favourite isn't always easy, but I'm doing so in Wednesday's...

6.25 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Where the presence of Ballet Concerto at 10/11 means we can get a very decent 9/2 BOG about Charlie Appleby's Langlauf (which is the German word for cross-country skiing!) who will be accompanied by William Buick for this Class 5, 7 furlong maiden.

Charlie Appleby's short training career to date has already seen him become very successful at this venue with 53 winners from just 198 runners (26.8% SR) on this track. Those winners have helped his followers make 49.7pts of level stakes goodness at an ROI of 25.1% from blind backing.

25.1% ROI is excellent, but we always like to tweak the blind stats a little to see how they fare under a specific race's conditions, so here goes! Of the 198 Kempton A/W runners sent out by Charlie Appleby...

  • In maidens, he is 27/118 (22.9% SR) for 38.3pts (32.4% ROI)
  • His 2 yr olds are 31/109 (28.4% SR) for 48.4pts (44.4% ROI)
  • Class 5 runners are 24/101 (23.8% SR) for 38.4pts (38.0% ROI)
  • Female runners are 22/78 (28.2% SR) for 27.7pts (35.5% ROI)
  • In 7f races they are 16/62 (30.7% SR) for 33.7pts (54.4% ROI)
  • and those ridden by William Buick have won 20 of 44 races (45.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 13pts at an ROI of 29.5%.

From the above, it's worth noting that... 2 yr old females in Class 5 Kempton maidens over 7 furlongs to a mile are 10/27 (37% SR) for 35pts (+129.6% ROI) profit.

Langlauf has run four times to date, finishing 4223 at trips of 7, 7.5 and 8 furlongs all on turf and she now switches to the A/W for the very first time. You might not be surprised to hear that I've also got a precedent for this happening too!

Charlie Appleby's horses switching to the A/W for the very first time after 1 to 5 runs on turf (ie NOT debutants) have won 32 of their 105 A/W debuts (30.5% SR) for profits of 10.6pts (+10.1% ROI). This is, admittedly, a fairly low return for SotD purposes, but it's still very worthwhile and also a good starting point for more tweaking!

So, of the 105 A/W first-timers...

  • those coming to Kempton are 17/53 (32.1% SR) for 18.9pts  (35.7% ROI)
  • females are 10/32 (31.25% SR) for 13.9pts (43.3% ROI)
  • those competing over 7 furlongs are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 25.3pts (90.3% ROI)
  • and William Buick has 10 wins from 21 (47.6% SR) for 6.3pts (29.9% ROI)

The combo to take from this is that 2 yr olds switching to A/W action at Kempton in a 7f contest are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 15.3pts (218.5% ROI)

I took my 9/2 BOG from Bet 365, but that price is also available with SkyBet and BetVictor, as can be seen if you...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Kempton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 29th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th July 2015

No joy for us on Tuesday at Wolverhampton, where Llyrical ran out of gas with a furlong to go and was subsequently passed by four runners on his way to the line.

He had raced prominently, if a little wide, throughout the contest, but when push came to shove with little more than 200 yards to run, he was a spent force.

He stuck to his task gamely enough, but eventually came home 5th of the 10 runners, beaten by the best part of 7 lengths with the rest of the field strung out behind him. The market seemed to have his measure as, after a Rule 4 deduction, our bet was worth 3.2/1, but he was sent off slightly longer at 100/30.

So, still searching for a first winner of the week, Wednesday looks really tough from a stats point of view, so somethnig a little out of the norm for me via the...

4.55 Goodwood :

And I say out of the norm, as it's a rare SotD sortie to a Festival meeting, as I tend to leave the tipping for these races to the others here on Geegeez better qualified to do so, but one runner in this contest has some interesting stats to back up what is clearly decent form.

Which is why I've just backed Forest Maiden at 5/1 BOG, a price that was available with at least four bookies at 6.10pm on Tuesday evening.

She's likely to go off shorter than that, so even at 5/1 in a big field, there could be some juice in the price in a race where 3yr olds have done well historically, aided by their healthy 9lbs weight for age allowance.

Her trainer, Charlie Appleby is in good form of late, saddling up 7 winners from 35 in the last two weeks, whilst jockey William Buick is also going well, having ridden 13 winners from 43 in the same timeframe and 8 from 20 in the last week alone.

Charlie's record here at Goodwood is reasonable if not spectacular, but 6 winners from 35 (17.1% SR) have been enough to guarantee a profit of 15pts (+42.7% ROI) for his followers, whilst Mr Buick's fans have been treated to 15 winners from 74 (20.3% SR) from their jockey over the last two seasons here at Goodwood.

Those brave enough to back each of the 74 rides have been rewarded with level stakes profits of 82pts at an ROI of 110.9%, which is great work if you're on!

The Buick/Appleby partnership is tried and tested and if you wanted a simple system to follow, you could just back all their joint bookings in handicaps priced at 2/1 to 9/1. There are only 68 qualifiers to date, but 16 winners at an SR of 23.5% and 12.4pts profit at an ROI of 18.2% ROI are worth having.

If you wanted to be a bit more selective, as I know some of you like, backing those over trips of 7.5f to 1m4f pays well with 14 winners from 43 (32.5% SR) and 29.2pts (+67.8% ROI) profit.

As for Forest Maiden , she has won 4 of her 7 runs to date and is 1 from 1 under William Buick., She has won both her starts when asked to carry 9st 5lbs on the past and won on her only attempt at going right handed (which can be an issue for some horses). She now drops down in class from a Class 2 win at Newbury 11 days ago, which is interesting to me (and hopefully to you! 😀 ), because...

If you backed all Charlie Appleby's runners at 8/1 or shorter, who were turned back out within 4 to 15 days of a top 4 finish last time out, you'd have not only bagged yourself 65 winners from 171 bets for a very healthy 38% strike rate, but you'd also have made yourself £287 (+16.8% ROI) to a £10/point level stake.

The strike rate and the ROI are both very acceptable to me, but as always, they can be improved in a whole host of ways, I've just picked four out for you today!

  1. Those placed 1st or 2nd LTO : 46/104 (44.2% SR) for 31.4pts (+30.2% ROI)
  2. 3 yr olds : 34/91 (37.4% SR) for 15.6pts (+17.2% ROI)
  3. Handicappers : 32/79 (40.5% SR) for 38.7pts (+49% ROI) and...
  4. Class 3 runners : 10/19 (52.6% SR) for 15.6pts (+81.9% ROI)

All of which are excellent returns, despite being fairly small sample sizes. The sample sizes are small, because there's only a couple of years worth of data with Charlie being a relatively "new" trainer and one very small microsystem to come from the above only had the first runner on 24th August 2013 (23 months ago), but...

...if you were to back the Appleby runners in Class 2 or 3 handicaps at odds of 7/1 or shorter, 4 to 15 days after a top 3 finish, you'd have 13 winners from 23 (56.5% SR) and 270.5pts profit at an ROI of 119.6%.

Finishing on an ROI of 100% is a good place to stop bombarding you with figures, so I'll call time on this write-up by reminding that I've taken 5/1 BOG about Forest Maiden, a price still available at 8.25pm Tuesday with Betfair's Sportsbook and Ladbrokes (although the latter is non-BOG until 9.00am). E/W backers can get 4 places, but I'm on to win only!

To see the very latest odds from all our featured bookies for Forest Maiden...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Goodwood

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.