Tag Archives: Warwick racecourse

Stat of the Day, 24th September 2019

Monday's pick was...

2.30 Hamilton : Avenue of Stars @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.50 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dr Robin @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Good To Firm ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding has won each of his last four starts (2 over hurdles and 2 over fences) and although he is up 9lbs for a win at Cartmel over this trip LTO 29 days ago, he did win very comfortably by 9 lengths that day and now drops back in class.

The third placed horse that day, Angel of Harlem, was 12 lengths off the pace, yet she has since turned back out to land a Class 3 chase over 3 miles at Uttoxeter by 10 lengths off a mark just one pound lower than our boy runs off today.

His handicap strike rate is excellent at 25.7% via a 9 from 35 record and contains of relevance today...

  • 66.6% (2/3) at this trip
  • 57.1% (4/7) with blinkers and a tongue tie
  • 40% (4/10) with the tongue tie
  • 36% (9/25) at 5-35 days since last run
  • 35.3% (6/17) with blinkers
  • 33.3% (8/24) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 32% (8/25) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 27.3% (3/11) under jockey James Bowen
  • 26.3% (5/19) on Good ground
  • 26.1% (6/23) at 2m7f and beyond
  • 23.5% (4/17) at Class 3 or better
  • and 21.7% (5/23) over fences

He is trained by Peter Bowen, whose handicap chasers are 39 from 210 (18.6% SR) for a very creditable 74.3pts (+35.4% ROI) blindly backed over the last three "summers" and I use that word lightly and refer to the May-September period. Of the 210 runners, the following are of note today...

  • 36/179 (20.1%) for 90.8pts (+50.7%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 36/176 (20.5%) for 96pts (+54.5%) in fields of 5-12 runners
  • 32/168 (19%) for 75.8pts (+45.1%) on Good or Good to Firm
  • 29/150 (19.3%) for 69.5pts (+46.3%) with a tongue tie
  • 28/137 (20.4%) for 87.5pts (+63.9%) beyond 2m6f
  • 17/88 (19.3%) for 40.4pts (+46%) with blinkers
  • 15/46 (32.6%) for 23.7pts (+51.4%) with LTO winners
  • and 13/61 (21.3%) for 31.5pts (+51.6%) with both blinkers and tongue tie

...whilst from those angles...in 5-12 runner, Class 2-4 contests beyond 2m6f, Peter's Summer Hcp Chasers are 18 from 71 (25.4% SR) for 97.2pts (+137% ROI) wearing a tongue tie, giving us almost 131% of the original profit from less than 34% of the selections and almost quadrupling the ROI.

And for those who like to drill down further, that 18/71 composite above includes...

  • 9/25 (36%) for 45.9pts (+183.6%) in blinkers
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 22.4pts (+149.5%) from LTO winners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 20.3pts (+289.9%) from LTO winners now in blinkers
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 24.3pts (+607.5%) from LTO winners now in blinkers at odds 4/1 to 8/1...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dr Robin @ 7/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.55pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.20 Newmarket : Mabs Cross @ 6/1 BOG WON at 6/1 (Held up towards rear, headway approaching final furlong, ridden and ran on strongly to lead final strides, winning by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glimpse of Gold @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Group 5, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m3f on Good ground worth £3249 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have an 8 yr old gelding looking for his fourth career success and he should relish some of today's race conditions, because of his three previous successes, all three came on left handed tracks, all three came wearing a tongue tie, two were at Class 5 and two were on Good ground.

Aside from that we're not really looking at masses of data this time, but trainer Tim Vaughan is 10 from 58 (17.9% SR) for 192.7pts (+344.2% ROI) and an A/E of 1.66 with his male Class 3-6 runners here at Warwick since 2010, and from those 58...

  • those racing at trips shorter than 3m1f are 8/46 (17.4%) for 196.4pts (+427.1%) : A/E = 1.81
  • hurdlers are 7/42 (16.6%) for 25.7pts (+61.1%) : A/E = 1.61
  • handicappers are 5/30 (16.6%) for 12.5pts (+41.7%) : A/E = 1.92
  • and those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 7/15 (46.7%) for 20.8pts (+138.7%) : A/E = 1.82

...from which...sub-7/1 hurdlers at trips shorter than 3m1f = 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.82pts (+185.2% ROI), including 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 12.39pts (+412.9%) in handicaps...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Glimpse of Gold @ 4/1 BOG which was offered by more than half a dozen firms at 5.45pm on Sunday (Bet365 were even half a point bigger!). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th April 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

6.20 Southwell : Riddlestown @ 4/1 BOG PU at 10/1 (Chased leaders to 3rd, soon behind and not travel well, reminders after 5th, lost touch when pulled up after 8th)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Irish Octave @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4 Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on good ground worth £5198 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding has won 3 of his last 8 over fences, all at Class 4, all under today's jockey Ben Poste and all over 3m/3m0.5f on decent ground including LTO at Chepstow 19 days ago. That last run/win took his record in handicap chases to 6 from 15 (all going left handed and wearing cheekpieces, both of which occur here today) and include the following of relevance today...

  • 6/14 under Ben Poste
  • 5/7 after less than a month's rest
  • 4/9 at 3m/3m0.5f
  • 3/4 in April-June
  • 3/8 at Class 4
  • 3/8 on Good ground
  • 1/2 here at Warwick
  • 1/1 here over 3m0.5f

Ben Poste is in good touch right now with a 6 from 25 (24% SR) record over the last 30 days including 5 winners from 13 (38.5% SR) over fences and he's actually 7 from 34 (20.6% SR) for 35.6pts (+104.7% ROI) on Rosemary Gasson's handicap chasers since the start of 2016 and these include...

  • at 2m6.5f to 3m0.5f : 7/28 (25%) for 41.6pts (+148.6%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/19 (21%) for 23.6pts (+124.3%)
  • and at Class 4 over 2m6.5f to 3m0.5f : 4/15 (26.7%) for 27.6pts (+184.1%)

To be honest, Rosemary doesn't actually have many chasers, but those sent out in handicap company (all males!) are 7 from 37 (18.9% SR) for 32.6pts (+88.1% ROI) since the start of 2016, amongst which...

  • as above, Ben Poste is 7 from 34 (20.6% SR) for 35.6pts (+104.7% ROI)
  • 7-12 yr olds are 7/26 (26.9%) for 43.6pts (+167.7%)
  • as above, over 2m6.5f to 3m0.5f : 7/28 (25%) for 41.6pts (+148.6%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/21 (19%) for 21.6pts (+102.9%)
  • from April to July : 4/12 933.3%) for 30.61pts (+255.1%)
  • those with less than 3 weeks rest are 6/7 (85.7%) for 44.15pts (+630.7%)
  • LTO winners are 3/6 (50%) for 7.34pts (+122.3%)
  • and here at Warwick, it's 1 from 2 (50%) for 4.51pts (+225.5%)

...from which... Gasson / Poste / hcp chase / 7-12 yo / 2m6.5f-3m0.5f = 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 50.6pts (+266.3% ROI), including..

  • after less than 3 weeks rest : 6/6 (100%) for 45.15pts (+752.5% )
  • and LTO winners after less than 3 weeks rest : 3/3 (100%) for 10.34pts (+344.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Irish Octave @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.20pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

4.10 Southwell : Angel Palanas @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 7/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd over 4f out until over 2f out, chased leaders, weakened inside final furlong)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Doitforthevillage 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 2, 5yo+, Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Good ground, worth £18768 to the winner...

Why?

Well, I'm going to keep this relatively short and hopefully very sweet for change with a 10 yr old gelding who has made the frame in each of his last three starts.

He won comfortably (by 7L) two starts ago, before being a well-beaten (21L) runner-up LTO 34 days ago in another Class 2 handicap off the same mark as today. There was however no disgrace in that defeat, as the winner was Cyrname, who dismantled a Grade 1 field at Ascot last week winning by 17 lengths!

Despite that defeat almost 5 weeks ago, our boy has an impressive record in handicap chases, having won 7 of 20 (35%) to date and these include...

  • 6/17 (35.3%) with a tongue tie
  • 6/16 (37.5%) going left handed
  • 6/14 (42.9%) after 2-7 weeks rest
  • 3/9 (33.3%) at Class 2
  • 5/8 (62.5%) at odds of evens to 5/1
  • 3/4 (75%) at trips of 2m3.5f/2m4f
  • 2/3 (66.6%) here at Warwick
  • and 1/1 (100%) over course and distance

His trainer, Paul Henderson has had other success here too, with 5 winners from 12 (41.7%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter over the last three years generating profits of 9.2pts at an ROI of 76.7%, with handicap chasers winning 4 of 6 (66.6%) for 8.36pts (+139.4%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Doitforthevillage 7/2 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 6.00pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Power Of Life @ 7/1 BOG 11th at 9/2 (Led until 8f out, settled tracking leaders over 6f out, weakening when hung left over 1f out )

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Warwick:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ange Des Malberaux @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m1½f on Good To Soft ground worth £5198 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 9 yr old gelding in excellent form, having won four of his last six starts (inc 3 wins from his last 4 over fences) culminating in him landing the Class 3 Lincolnshire National by 5 lengths on Boxing Day at Market Rasen. A drop in both trip and class await him today and I expect another bold show, especially considering...

...as his trainer Dan Skelton has got his horses going really well right now, winning 15 of 74 (20.3% SR) for 48pts (+64.8% ROI) over the last 30 days with that record improving to 7/28 (25%) for 5.9pts (+21%) in the last fortnight, whilst since the start of 2015, the chasers he has sent here to Warwick have won 15 of 42 (35.7% SR) for profits of 7.09pts (+17.3% ROI) backed blindly.

Now, that's not the biggest sample size I've ever used, but Warwick isn't the busiest of tracks from a chasing perspective and of interest today from those runners...

  • jockey Harry Skelton is 14/32 (43.8%) for 16.09pts (+50.3%)
  • handicappers are 10/29 (34.5%) for 7.66pts (+26.4%)
  • those sent off at 4/1 or shorter are 15/26 (57.7%) for 23.09pts (+92.3%)
  • those racing after less than a month's rest are 11/24 (45.8%) for 11.58pts (+48.2%)
  • Class 4 : 8/15 (53.3%) for 9.38pts (+67%)
  • class droppers are 5/11 (45.5%) for 6.13pts (+55.7%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 7/10 (70%) for 14.5pts (+145%)

...whilst from the above...Harry Skelton on sub-9/2 handicappers with a run in the previous month = 9/13 (69.2% SR) for 18.28pts (+140.6% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 = 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.37pts (+133.8%)
  • Good to Soft = 3/3 (100%) for 7.85pts (+261.6%)
  • Class droppers : 2/2 (100%) for 5.05pts (+252.5%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Ange Des Malberaux @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by half a dozen firms at 2.00am on Monday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. A quick headsup about the next couple of picks : I'm away for the weekend from tomorrow afternoon, so Matt's in the hotseat for Saturday's pick and I'll be doing Monday's pick when I get home, but it won't appear until after midnight Sunday at the earliest! Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

Stat of the Day, 9th November 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.20 Sedgefield : Handy Hollow @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 5/1 (Held up in touch, headway 4 out, soon ridden, weakened after next, tailed off) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kilmurvy @ 6/1 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 4 Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £5198 to the winner... 

Why?

This 10 yr old gelding was a winner by 3 lengths over 3m2.5f in a similar Class 4 contest under today's jockey Nick Scholfield when last seen 102 days ago, taking his record in sub-£6,000 Class 4 handicap chases to 2 wins and a place from 4 efforts and whilst he's been off the track for almost 3.5 months now, I'm not over concerned, as he's made the frame of four of five runs off a break of 3 to 6 months previously.

He is trained by Jeremy Scott and the trainer's record in such contests will form the backbone of today's analysis, as his Class 4 handicap chasers have won 35 of 160 (21.9% SR) for 94.3pts (+58.9% ROI) profits since the start of 2014 and whilst I rarely advocate blindly backing one of my starter angles, you could actually do far worse than just back these, as there's an average of less than 40 per year.

That said, I/you would probably still want to apply some filters to improve both SR and ROI, so we could try...

  • males at 33/152 (21.7%) for 91.5pts (+60.2%)
  • 6-10 yr olds at 32/125 (25.6%) for 101.6pts (+81.3%)
  • priced at 7/4 to 13/2 at 24/83 (28.9%) for 35.2pts (+42.4%)
  • on Good ground at 19/79 (24.1%) for 34.8pts (+44%)
  • ridden by Nick Scholfield at 16/64 (25%) for 60.2pts (+94%)
  • in 2018, they are 9/37 (24.3%) for 32.8pts (+88.7%)
  • from November to January : 8/36 (22.2%) for 52.9pts (+147%)
  • stayers over 3m2f to 3m4f are 10/28 (35.7%) for 14.5pts (+51.9%)
  • 10 yr olds are 6/25 (24%) for 5.37pts (+21.5%)
  • at Warwick : 2/11 (18.2%) for 8.46pts (+76.9%)
  • and after a break of 3 to 6 months : 3/9 (33.3%) for 11.9pts (+132.1%)

Yet, I know there are plenty of you who like a nice composite angle they can follow, so the following simple micro (derived from the above) might work for you...

...6-12 yr old males priced at 7/4 to 13/2 on ground with the word Good in the official description are 18 from 47 (38.3% SR) for 44pts profit at an attractive ROI of 93.6%, from which Nick Scholfield is 6/19 (31.6%) for 13.66pts (+71.9%), whilst the 3.25 to 3.5 mile stayers are 7 from 12 (58.3%) for 20.82pts (+173.5% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kilmurvy @ 6/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Ladbrokes & Paddy Power at 6.45pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2018

Friday's Result :

4.45 Chelmsford : Volpone Jelois @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Tracked leader, driven to challenge over 2f out, stayed on same pace approaching final furlong...

We end another successful week with Saturday's...

4.50 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 2m handicap hurdle on soft ground worth £4,549 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was a winner over 3m in his final Point to Point race before starting his career under rules with three straight wins, all at 2m/2m0.5f on soft or heavy at Class 4 under today's jockey Harry Bannister.

So although his effort for a 4-timer is also a handicap debut, he should at least be accustomed to the race conditions.

His trainer, Harry Whittington, is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 12.12pts (+48.5% ROI) with handicap debutants and these include...

  • 21-150 days since last run : 7/20 (35%) for 17.12pts (+85.6%)
  • over hurdles : 4/18 (22.2%) for 1.09pts (+6%)
  • at Class 4 : 2/9 (22.2%) for 2.88pts (+32%)
  • on soft/heavy : 2/5 (40%) for 3.14pts (+62.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.55pts (+318.2%)

That stat re: LTO winners isn't really a surprise, as Harry's LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 11.46pts (+81.8% ROI) in handicaps just since the start of 2017!

And, since 2013 in UK handicap hurdle contests, horses who won a Novice hurdle last time out in the previous 90 days, went on to score again on 162 of 893 (18.1%) for 146pts (+16.4%), including...

  • on handicap debut : 66/361 (18.3%) for 78.44pts (+21.7%)
  • 31-90 dslr : 54/304 (17.8%) for 95.04pts (+31.3%)
  • on soft ground : 40/226 (17.7%) for 40.1pts (+17.7%)
  • and here at Warwick : 5/23 (21.7%) for 10.54pts (+45.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th January 2018

Wednesday's Result :

6.45 Kempton : Magic Mirror @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 7/2 Slowly into stride, towards rear, stayed on inside final furlong, never nearer...

Next up is Thursday's...

2.35 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crucial Role @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ A/W Handicap Hurdle over 3m1.5f on Soft ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has made the frame in four of his last five starts, winning twice including last time out seven days ago over 3 miles on soft ground at this grade. Despite easing down on the run-in, he was still home a good 13 lengths ahead of his nearest rival to whom he was conceding 25lbs.

He comes from a yard in great form, as Henry Daly's runners have 3 wins and 2 places from 9 starts over the past fortnight with 2 winners and a placer from five over the last week. Jockey Richard Johnson is also in good nick, having ridden 9 winners from 40 in the fortnight.

Meanwhile, here at Warwick, Henry Daly is 15/112 (13.4% SR) for 14.04pts (+12.5% ROI) since 2009, whilst Richard Johnson's record over the last 6yrs here stands at 38/170 (22.4% SR) for 0.19pts (+0.11% ROI), showing that his success seems to attract punters' money.

On top of all the above, Mr Daly's handicap hurdlers are 46/291 (15.8% SR) for 96.2pts (+33.1% ROI) since 2012, including...

  • at Class 3 : 12/86 (14%) for 32.9pts (+38.3%)
  • 6-25 days since last run : 18/77 (23.4%) for 30pts (+39%)
  • with Richard Johnson : 12/67 (17.9%) for 22.6pts (+33.8%)
  • and in January : 8/29 (27.6%) for 18.6pts (+64.1%)

...whilst over the last 2 years alone, his LTO winners are 12/45 (26.7% SR) for 13.14pts (+29.2% ROI)...

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Crucial Role @ 11/4 BOG which was available from half a dozen outlets at 5.30pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th October 2017

Wednesday's Result :

7.40 Kempton : Brilliant Vanguard @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 6/1 : Chased leaders, ridden and unable to quicken when hung right over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong...

Thursday's selection goes in the...

4.25 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shanroe Santos @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding who has the following achievements relevant to today's contest...

  • 3 from 7 over 3m/3m0.5f  (of which 2/4 in chases)
  • 2/7 under Leighton Aspell (1/5 in chases)
  • 3/6 at odds of 6/1 and shorter (2/4)
  • 2/6 at Class 3 (2/4)
  • 2/5 this year (2/5)
  • 2/4 in cheekpieces (2/4)
  • 2/4 in fields of 1-7 runners (1/3)

And he's trained by Lucy Wadham, whose chasers are 36/189 (19.1% SR) for 96pts (+50.8% ROI) since 2012, including...

  • males @ 30/152 (19.7%) for 92.5pts (+60.9%)
  • at trips of 2m4.5f to 3m0.5f : 28/110 (25.5%) for 62.2pts (+56.5%)
  • at Class 3 : 14/68 (20.6%) for 78.6pts (+115.5%)
  • in the October-December final quarter : 15/61 (24.6%) for 96.5pts (+158.2%)
  • those running after a break of 5 to 10 months : 5/24 (20.8%) for 65pts (+270.9%)
  • and here at Warwick : 2/8 (25%) for 4.2pts (+52.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shanroe Santos @ 11/2 BOG, which was offered by half a dozen firms at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th May 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.40 Lingfield : Hope is High @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 11/4 Prominent early, tracked leaders, went 2nd over 1f out, about 1 length down when tightened up and lost 2nd well inside final furlong, lost 3rd post

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.05 Warwick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bronco Billy5/2 BOG

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding who was a winner last time out, 27 days ago. That was over a slightly shorter trip, but he has won over today's trip as a hurdler.

His trainer Jonjo O'Neill has a steady, if unspectacular overall record here at Warwick since 2013 with 18 winners from 137 (13.1% SR) for 39.3pts (+28.7% ROI) profit, but his handicappers do considerably better at 13/80 (16.25%) for 44.8pts (+56%) and we'll focus on these 80 'cappers, who are also...

  • 9/48 (18.75%) for 43.6pts (+90.8%) at Class 4
  • 12/47 (25.5%) for 48.2pts (+102.5%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 6/38 (15.8%) for 33.1pts (+87%) within 4 weeks of their last run
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 25.6pts (+88.3%) at 3m1f-3m2f
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 15.2pts (+58.5%) on good ground
  • and 3/12 (25%) for 9.9pts (+82.5%) from LTO winners

In addition to the above, since the start of 2011 in Class 4 chases, males aged 6 to 9 who won a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO 4 to 75 days earlier, went on to win again on 198 of 693 (29% SR) occasions for profits of 122.5pts (+17.9% ROI), with those racing over trips of 2m 4.5f to 3m 2f winning 104 of 347 (30%) for 138.3pts (+39.8%)

And finally, since 2010...Jonjo O'Neill's handicap chasers priced at 12/1 and shorter who were LTO winners in the previous 30 days are 26/118 (22% SR) for 16.63pts (+11.6% ROI) with those racing over 3m to 3m 1.5f winning 7 of 36 (19.4%) for 19.05pts (+52.9%)

...producing...a 1pt win bet on Bronco Billy5/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday, but those able to grab the 11/4 BOG offered by Bet365 should do so! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.