Tag Archives: Venetia Williams

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Newbury : Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, led 11th, pushed along and headed 3 out, chased winner, one pace and well held)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Longhousesignora @ 4/1

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 3m½f on soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare won a Class 2 chase by 15 lengths last time out, at Hereford over 3m1½f on soft ground, so this should be well within her capabilities reverting back to hurldes in a lower grade and sporting the blinkers she successful wore for the first time for that win. She'll be seeking to add to trainer Venetia Williams' good run of form, which has seen the yard land 15 winners from 45 (33.33% SR) and 19.62pts (+43.6% ROI) over the last 21 racing days.

Mind you, this run of form comes as no surprise to me, as one of my saved angles tells me to back all of her Class 2 to 4 handicappers during November/December, because the last six of those pairs of months have produced 89 winners from 420 (21.2% SR) for a profit of some 164.7pts (+39.2% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 5-8 yr olds are 74/310 (23.9%) for 187.5pts (+60.5%)
  • those racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f are 74/308 (24%) for 201.4pts (+65.4%)
  • those racing on soft or "worse" ground are 70/294 (23.8%) for 121.3pts (+41.2%)
  • those racing at Class 4 are 38/177 (29.9%) for 77.4pts (+60.9%)
  • since the start of November 2018, they are 28/115 (24.3%) for 84.8pts (+73.7%)
  • hurdlers have won 22 of 108 (20.4%) for 30.2pts (+28%)
  • LTO Winners are 19/65 (29.2%) for 30.6pts (+47.1%)
  • whilst those sent here to Haydock are 8/26 (30.8%) for 25.5pts (+98%)

...all of which then leads us to a secondary saved micro-system of mine, where from the above 420 runners, we back 5-8 yr olds racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f on soft or worse ground. This gives us over 84% of the original profit from just 39% of the bets as 49 winners from 164 (29.9% SR) have generated 138.6pts at an ROI of 84.5% and that's the basis for the bet today.

If you wanted to filter down as before then you'd get...

  • 22/55 (40%) for 62.1pts (+112.8%) at Class 4
  • 18/50 (36%) for 64pts (+128%) in 2018/19
  • 11/43 (25.6%) for 41pts (+95.3%) over hurdles
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 4.4pts (+12.5%) from LTO winners
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 25.8pts (+215.2%) here at Haydock (our racecard icons are already alerting you to the yard's overall success at this track)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Longhousesignora @ 4/1 as was offered by both BetVictor & SkyBet at 10.10pm on Sunday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th December 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.40 Newcastle : Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG fell at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, close up on inside when fell 5 out)

Boxing Day's pick runs in the...

1.20 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £16,245 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5yr old gelding was a winner LTO, 8 days ago, triumphant on similarly soft ground at Ludlow in another Class 3 handicap chase under today's jockey, Charlie Deutsch.

He's by Walk In The Park, whose soft ground handicap chasers are 6 from 19 (31.6%) SR) for 26.4pts (+138.9% ROI) over the last four years, including...

  • 6/15 (40%) for 30.4pts (+202.6%) at 2m1.5f to 3m2f
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 32.4pts (+249.1%) at 2/1 to 10/1
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.05pts (+72.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3 from 4 (75%) for 8.05pts (+201.3%) when all three of the above are in play as they are today.

This horse hails from the in-form Venetia Williams yard, one that thrives at this time of year and does well in poorer conditions. In fact, Venetia's runners are 13 from 26 (50% SR) for 31.6pts (+121.6% ROI) since the morning of the 11th December, whilst more generally over the last five Decembers, her Class 2 to 4 handicappers are 41/160 (25.6% SR) for 101.9pts (+63.7% ROI), including...

  • 38/141 (27%) for 108.9pts (+77.3%) from male runners
  • 35/102 (34.3%) for 121.7pts (+119.3%) with 4-7 yr olds
  • 34/120 (28.3%) for 103.9pts (+86.6%) in races worth £4k to £17k to the winner
  • 28/85 (32.9%) for 108.7pts (+127.9%) over 2m3f to 2m7.5f
  • 28/71 (39.4%) for 62.2pts (+87.6%) at 2/1 to 5/1
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.4pts (+74.5%) on Soft ground
  • 17/60 (28.3%) for 25.1pts (+41.9%) under Charlie Deutsch
  • and 16/73 (21.9%) for 38.9pts (+53.3%) at Class 3...

...whilst 4-7 yr old males sent off at 2/1 to 5/1 over 2m3f to 2m7.5f chasing pots of £4 to 17k are 14/22 (63.6% SR) for 44.8pts (+203.6% ROI) and these include 8/13 (61.5%) for Charlie Deutsch, 7/13 (53.9%) at Class 3, 7/10 (70%) on soft ground and 3 from 4 (75%) with Charlie riding a Class 3 runner on soft ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.50pm on Christmas Day. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2019

Monday's pick was...

4.45 Wolverhampton : Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/4 (Raced wide close up, pushed along and headway 2f out, soon chased leader, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, led close home, winning by a nose!)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Conditional Jockeys Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

It has been almost 11 months and nine defeats since this 11 yr old gelding last ran off a mark (OR) lower than 120 (my 50th birthday to be precise, but that's another matter!) and that was also his last win, so I'm glad to see him back off a winnable mark and not having any younger, fitter runners to deal with.

He's never been prolific (5/46 = 10.9% SR), but a quick look a this wins/best runs would suggest he's more likely to win any/some/all of the following are present...

  • a run in the previous 7 weeks (ran 19 days ago)
  • sent off at 5/1 or shorter (we're on at 10/3)
  • going left handed (tick)
  • handicap chases (tick)
  • soft or worse (heavy today)
  • OR lower than 120 (119 here)
  • wearing cheekpieces (tick)
  • running at Class 3/4 (C3 today)

...and when going left handed at 5/1 or shorter after 6 weeks rest or less, he is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 7.41pts (+148.1% ROI) including 2 from 2 on soft or worse and 1/1 on heavy.

He is trained by Venetia Williams, one of my trainers to watch in the closing stages of the year (and also one of the trainers that switched me on to the statistical side of betting, but again that's another story for another day), as her chasers are 104 from 567 (18.3% SR) for 227.2pts (+40.1% ROI) during the closing two months of the year over the past nine years, with every year bar 2017 showing healthy strike rates and ROI figures.

And from the 567 November/December chasers since 2011...

  • 99/514 (19.3%) for 218.9pts (+42.6%) in handicaps
  • 98/515 (19%) for 237.9pts (+46.2%) from male runners
  • 94/474 (19.8%) for 204.5pts (+43.2%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 71/361 (19.7%) for 116.5pts (+32.3%) on soft/heavy (the stat probably most well known)
  • 49/233 (21%) for 106.1pts (+45.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 29/134 (21.6%) for 63.6pts (+47.5%) off marks of 110-120
  • and 13/72 (18.1%) for 42pts (+58.3%) since the start of 2018 (so we're not using old data as a crutch!)

...whilst from the above, Class 2-4 male handicappers on soft or worse are 59/265 (22.3% SR) for 108.6pts (+41% ROI), a handy little micro for 30-ish bets a year, but if 15 or so bets in a month from one angle is too much, then you could re-filter using the initial parameters to get...

  • 31/109 (28.4%) for 90.4pts (+83%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 19/78 (24.4%) for 25.1pts (+32.2%) off an OR of 110-120
  • 11/35 (31.4%) for 18.65pts (+53.3%) off 110-120 at 1-25 dslr
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 17.67pts (+50.5%) in 2018/19
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 25.5pts (+283.3%) at 1-25 dslr in 2018/19
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.82pts (+97.7%) off 110-120 in 2018/19
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 4.27pts (+106.8%) off 110-120 at 1-25 dslr in 2018/19...

...and this possible over-dilution points to...a 1pt win bet on Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 (10/3)  or Coral/Ladbrokes (3/1) or Betfair/PaddyPower/Hills (3/1) respectively (third grouping not BOG until raceday, mind) at 5.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th March 2016

Monday's Result :

2.40 Lingfield : Bawden Rocks @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd 3rd, led 6th, headed 3 out, stayed on same pace)

Tuesday's runner goes in the...

4.10 Exeter:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Renard @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 11 yr old gelding was a runner-up when last seen 11 days ago and should be competitive having had the recent effort and especially now eased 2lbs and dropped two classes to a grade where he is currently 2 from 2 and he comes to Exeter where his trainer Venetia Williams' handicap chasers (all male!) are 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 26.5pts (+189.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2015.

Of those 14 'capper chasing males...

  • those running on soft/heavy are 3/12 for 19.1pts
  • class 4 runners are 2/5 for 20.4pts
  • Aidan Coleman has ridden 2 winners from 5 for 16.5pts
  • and at 2m3f/2m3.5f, they are 2 from 2 for 19.1pts

In addition to the above, Venetia's handicap chasers dropping down in class are 39/231 (16.9% SR) for 12.3pts (+5.3% ROI) profit since the start of 2012, with the following angles prevalent here...

  • soft ground runners are 18/86 for 11.6pts
  • class 4 runners are 14/67 for 8.13pts
  • those priced at 5/4 to 7/2 are 20/53 for 13.5pts
  • those racing over 2m1f to 2m3.5f are 8/33 for 25.8pts
  • and here at Exeter, they are 2 from 10 for 15.4pts

Plus, Ms Williams' handicap jumpers running after a string of 5 or more successive defeats and are now rated lower than their last jumps win have won 21 of 74 (28.4% SR) races for profits of 34.3pts (+46.3% ROI) when sent off in the 13/8 to 13/2 price range since the start of 2012. Of particular interest to me today, are the following facts...

  • males are 19/68 for 31.7pts
  • chasers are 17/62 for 19.4pts
  • soft ground runners are 12/39 for 27.8pts
  • class 4 runners are 10/36 for 13.5pts
  • those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 8/27 for 12.5pts
  • in races of 2m0.5f to 2,4.5f, they are 10/23 for 26pts
  • and here at Exeter, they are 1 from 2 for 4.33pts

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Renard at 11/4 BOG, a price available with Betbright, BetVictor, Coral & Hills at 5.40pm, so to take your pick of the pack, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2016

Thursday's Result :

4.05 Southwell : Ziggys Star @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 15/8 (In touch, pushed along halfway, ridden 2f out, no impression)

Friday's runner goes in the...

3.15 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Waldorf Salad @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Horse : This 8 yr old gelding comes here on a hat-trick after wins at Towcester (2m 5.5f, soft) five weeks ago and then by 5 lengths at Taunton (2m 7f, heavy) just over three weeks ago, taking his record on heavy ground to 3 from 5 and he's also 3 from 5 when running within 25 days of his last outing.

All his four career victories have come from the 13 races he has contested in fields of 7 to 11 runners, with 2 wins from 5 over fences and January has been a good month for him in the past, yielding 2 wins and a place from 4 efforts.

Trainer : Venetia Williams has an excellent record over the last four years with her heavy ground handicap chasers, who since the start of 2012, have won 48 of 223 (21.5% SR) races for level stakes profits of 37.2pts at an ROI of 16.7%. Based on today's race conditions, those 223 heavy ground chasers are...

  • 47/209 (22.5% SR) for 47.5pts (+22.7% ROI) for male runners
  • 38/180 (21.1% SR) for 43.8pts (+24.3% ROI) at trips of 2m3.5f to 3m5.5f
  • 40/172 (23.3% SR) for 62.pts (+36.4% ROI) at the ages of 7 to 11
  • 30/115 (26.1% SR) for 35.3pts (+30.7% ROI) 6 to 25 days after their last run
  • 16/75 (21.3% SR) for 12.7pts (+16.9% ROI) at Class 3
  • 13/40 (32.5% SR) for 15.1pts (+37.6% ROI) from LTO winners
  • 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 19pts (+105.3% ROI) here at Chepstow

And a micro? Male / 7 to 11 yr olds / 2m3.5f to 3.5.5f / 6 to 25 days since last run = 21/68 (30.9% SR) for 53.8pts (+79.1% ROI), from which LTO winners are 6/15 (40% SR) for 13.1pts (+87.2% ROI) and Chepstow runners are 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 25.8pts (+286.4% ROI).

The fact that this 8 yr old now competes in a Class 3 hcp chase off the back of an LTO win sets us up for the following...

General Stat : Class 3/4 male chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who won a handciap chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO, 11 to 150 days ago are 280/1246 (22.5% SR) for 255pts (+20.5% ROI) profit since the start of 2008.

So that's around 150 bets per year, manageable for some, too many for others. With such a large sample size, there are many ways to approach it, but I'm just going to give you four, very logical, profitable filters...

  • those who last ran 11 to 45 days ago are 256/1084 (23.6% SR) for 267.8pts (+24.7% ROI)
  • those who won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO are 160/670 (23.9% SR) for 175.5pts (+26.2% ROI)
  • Class 3 chasers are 132/637 (20.7% SR) for 162.4pts (+25.5% ROI)
  • 8 yr olds are 77/347 (22.2% SR) for 78.9pts (+22.7% ROI)

And your second free micro of the day? Class 3 chasers running 11 to 45 days after a win by 5 to 10 lengths LTO are 56/233 (24% SR) for 118.6pts (50.9% ROI), of which 8yr olds are 14/64 (21.9% SR) for 37.1pts (+58% ROI).

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 5.15pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Waldorf Salad and that's at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, who are currently the standout price for this one. To see the rest of the market, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2015

Thursday's Result :

3.30 Wincanton : Whataknight @ 4/1 BOG : 3rd at 7/2 (Mid-division, headway approaching 2 out, went modest 3rd run-in, beaten by 14 lengths)

Friday's selection runs in the...

2.40 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tenor Nivernais @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Fairly short and sweet this time...

Venetia Williams' string has been in cracking form of late, particularly her handicap chasers (and even more so, those returning from a break). And since the start of 2009, her handicap chasers are 182 from 1279 (14.2% SR) for modest level stakes profits of 69.4pts at an ROI of 5.42% and although this isn't going to make us rich, any trainer who is profitable to follow blindly is worth closer examination.

A deeper inspection of her results show that certain areas are very stronger, especially in respect of today's chosen race, for those 1279 handicap chasers are...

  • 66 from 483 (13.7% SR) for 216.4pts (+44.8% ROI) aged 8 and 9
  • 34 from 165 *20.6% SR) when priced at 7/4 to 10/1 whilst dropping down a grade/class
  • 25 from 105 (23.8% SR) for 140.7pts (+134% ROI) when returning from a break of 150 to 240 days
  • 12 from 80 (15% SR) for 114.3pts (+142.9% ROI) over this 2m5f trip
  • 7 from 56 (12.5% SR) for 24.8pts (+44.3% ROI) here at Ascot

Venetia's 6 to 8 yr old handicap chasers priced at 7/4 to 10/1 dropping down a class 180 to 300 days after their last run are 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 35.7pts (+187.9% ROI) with a 2 from 3 record here at Ascot producing 10.65pts profit.

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Tenor Nivernais at 7/2 BOG with Coral, who will offer us a refund, should he fall. Boylesports and Seanie Mac are at the same price, as are Betfred / Ladbrokes / Totesport, but neither of those last three go BOG until morning. To see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 5th February 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th February 2015

My cold run continued on Wednesday as the 11/4 advised Squats drifted out to 7/2 before being beaten by 2.5 lengths to finish 6th of the 8 runners, but he deserved better.

As he began to make his challenge a furlong out, he was badly hampered and them sandwiched before running on again to try to close down the leaders and had he not encountered problems, it could have been a different story.

But the search now goes on to break this run and my quest now takes me to the...

3.45 Taunton:

Where Venetia Williams' Abundantly is best priced at 9/2 BOG with Coral for this Class 3 handicap hurdle over 2m 1f on soft ground.

Venetia's record here at Taunton is good at 28/128 (21.9% SR) for 37.5pts (+29.3% ROI) profit, from which we see that she is 17/72 (23.6% SR) in handicaps here for 28.4pts (+39.4% ROI) and she's 20/85 (23.5% SR) for 51.4pts (+60.4% ROI) with her Taunton hurdlers.

Venetia is 11/41 (26.8% SR) with handicap hurdlers here at Taunton for 35.1pts (+85.6% ROI) profit.

It's widely known that the Williams yard has a good record on soft ground, so I won't bore you with the details, aside from telling you that of the 11.41 record, the figures on soft ground are 5/10 for 28pts profit.

Abundantly comes here off the back of a comfortable win over course and distance 19 days ago and Venetia's handicap hurdlers who won last time out have gone on to win again on 21 of 48 (43.75% SR) for 11.8pts (+24.6% ROI) when priced at 5/1 or shorter in the past six years.

Meanwhile, runners in Taunton handicaps over the last three years who have CD next to to their name and who won lat time out are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 14.3pts (+51.2% ROI) profit.

Abundantly ran and won over today's course and distance almost three weeks ago and although this race is tougher, the following should be noted...

...she won by 13 lengths last time out
...it was her first run for a year and only her second for the yard
...it was her first run here at Taunton
...it was on heavy ground

She's sure to come on for having had the run and with conditions looking better today, she looks dangerous down near the foot of the weights off a fairly lenient-looking opening mark of 110.

So, the call for Thursday is a 1pt win bet on Abundantly at 9/2 BOG with Coral. Alternatively, you can always...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.45 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 19th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th January 2014

Luke's Benefit's run on Saturday was as disappointing as my own personal recent run of form, but that's not major cause for concern just yet. I'm too long in the tooth to get worried about a few losing bets, when we're all aware of the cyclical nature of this sport.

And with the vast amount of racing on offer to us nowadays, I instantly get another shot at getting back amongst the winners. A 2m5f, Class 3, Handicap awaits us on Sunday afternoon as we tackle the......

2.10 Towcester:

Venetia Williams has got her horses in fine form at the moment, as a return of 11 winners in the last fortnight will testify. She's also a trainer you could back blindly here at Towcester, since she has a career 20.4% strike rate (49/240 here) yielding level stakes profits of some 88.44pts (+36.85% ROI).

Her hurdlers here at Towcester are 20/107 (18.7% SR) for 60.35pts (+56.4% ROI) and although she sends three hurdlers here today, the one that interests me most is Astigos, who caught my eye when I selected him for the Double Dutch just three days ago.

Here's what I wrote about him that day..."I find Astigos very interesting and possibly overpriced. He made his UK debut on New Years’ Day at Cheltenham and was pulled up before completing the 3m trip he was asked to attempt. The assessor seems to have taken pity on him and dropped him 6lbs, as he comes here for a race some 3 furlongs shorter than last time.

I think a lack of knowledge about this horse must be the main reason for him being available as long as 4/1 BOG, because that does seem rather generous about a horse twice placed in Listed handicaps in France over 2m4f on heavy ground at a higher weight than the featherweight he carries today..."

As it happens, he ran very creditably in defeat and stayed on well to finish just two lengths behind the impressive Lamps at Market Rasen.

Venetia Williams turns him back out very quickly here off the same mark, a tactic that has served her well in the past.

In the last four years, she has sent out 26 runners priced below 5/1 in NH Handicap races within 3 to 6 days of their last run. From these 26 runners, she has been rewarded with 14 visits to the winners' enclosure with a strike rate of 53.85%, which in turn has generated level stakes profits of 20.2pts, an impressive return over stakes invested of some 77.7%

I think Astigos will not only come on for that run, but will be aided by competing in what looks a weaker contest and one that he's likely to be sent off as favourite for. Now I'm not a big fan of backing favourites, but let's face facts here, 1 in every 3 of them wins and they can be profitable, if you back the right ones!

I know that's no simple task, but we are assisted in our selection process when we see that Miss Williams' figures from NH Handicap favourites priced below 5/1 are as follows in the last three years:

Overall: 90 winners from 253 = 35.6% SR for level stakes profits of 66.61pts = ROI of 26.3%
Hurdles: 28 winners from 80 = 35.0% SR for level stakes profits of 23.38pts = ROI of 29.2%

Mid to high twenties returns from favourites is very impressive and when allied to the trainer's track stats and her record with horses turned out quickly after a run, this makes Astigos a very viable proposition indeed. If he shows any sign of progression from that last outing or any traces of his French form, then I've no reason to see why we wouldn't be happy with a 1pt bet on Astigos at 7/2 BOG. I've got more money in my SkyBet account than any other, so I've used them for this one and the 7/2 is widely available, but you can always...

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Stat of the Day, 7th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2014

Silent Knight was very well backed yesterday, as our 10/1 E/W shot was sent off at 5/1 on course.

He ran well enough, I suppose, but tired and faded late on to finish two places and seven lengths outside the money in fifth place.

If you thought yesterday's racing was poor, today looks even worse, I'm afraid, but I might just have one for you in the...

1.50 Leicester:

Where I've just backed Renard Dirlande at 4/1 BOG with Boylesports and here's why...

1. He's trained by Venetia Williams, whose horses are in terrific form at the moment with 10 winners from 37 in the last fortnight and a place strike rate of over 43%.

2. Jockey Aidan Coleman has ridden 18 winners from 79 (22.8% SR) for over 25pts profit in the last month alone.

3. In 2012 & 2013, Miss Williams' record at Leicester is 6 winners from 19 with all six winners coming in chase contests, where the record reads 6 wins from 14 (42.9% SR) for 6.98pts (+49.9% ROI). of those 14 runners, there is a record of 6/12 for 8.98pts with chasers priced at 5/1 or shorter.

4. Her overall record in Leicester chases is 21/65 (32.3% SR) for 8.53pts (+13.1% ROI), and with the 5/1 odds cap imposed: 21/48 (43.75% SR) for 25.53pts (+53.2% ROI) profit.

5. Renard Dirlande loves the soft ground he'll face here today, on ground officially described as soft or heavy (or anywhere in between!) he has won twice and been placed four times from six efforts (412321) with a record of 2321 in chases.

All of which hopefully points to a successful 1pt win on Renard Dirlande at 4/1 BOG with Boylesports, but as always, you really should...

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Stat of the Day, 30th December 2012

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2012

No joy again yesterday, despite not being beaten far, and December's barren spell continues. It is worth remembering that December was a tough month for SotD last year too, but we're striving for a couple of winners to close out the year.

We'll begin our recovery mission in the...

4.00 Taunton

Let's talk about Venetia Williams. An excellent trainer having a brilliant season, and with her string in top form currently.

She has a fine track record at Taunton, particularly with her hurdling entries, and even more especially with her handicap hurdlers.

In the last five years, Venetia has run 22 horses in handicap hurdles at the track. Seven have won (32% strike rate) and eleven (50%) have placed. Those winners were worth 35.5 units profit to boot.

This afternoon she runs Kingcora in a Class 3 handicap hurdle, but I'm pretty sure he's being readied for a tilt at the Cheltenham  Festival and I don't expect today to be his day.

On the other hand, if Jupiter Rex is ever going to have a day, it is likely to be this afternoon. He's a plodder and was fifth over two and a half miles last tme. The time before he was also fifth, only beaten eleven lengths, over nearer three miles, and this extended three mile trip might see him in his best light.

I'm hoping he's going to improve in what looks a weak race, despite a couple with 1's in their form string at the top of the handicap, and I think that bet365's 16/1 BOG with four places is worth taking. Half a point each way.

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