Tag Archives: Tom O’Brien

Stat of the Day, 1st December 2018

Friday's Pick was...

12.45 Newbury : Kupatana @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Led in start, led until 3rd (water), chased winner until 9th, outpaced before next, ridden and went 3rd 3 out, left remote 2nd at the last)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 15-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £25992 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was useful on the Flat at Class 2 and better, winning over 2 miles at Ascot this summer and has 2 wins and a place from 4 efforts over hurdles, including winning over 2m5.5f at Cheltenham when last seen a fortnight ago.

Trainer Ian Williams' handicap hurdlers are 25 from 113 (22.1% SR) for 97.1pts (+85.9% ROI) over trips of 2m4f to 2m6f since the start of 2015 and these include of relevance today...

  • males at 21/91 (23.1%) for 104.2pts (+114.6%)
  • those last seen 6-45 days ago are 20/75 (26.7%) for 59.8pts (+79.7%)
  • those sent off shorter than 5/1 are 18/46 (39.1%) for 23.9pts (+52%)
  • those ridden by Tom O'Brien are 6/25 924%) for 7.55pts (+30.2%)
  • LTO winners are 8/22 (36.4%) for 4.57pts (+20.8%)
  • and at Class 2 : 4/18 (22.2%) for 58.4pts (+324.5%)

...and from the above : sub-5/1 males at 6-45 dslr = 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) for 13pts (+46.4% ROI)...

It would be remiss of me to point out that we're expecting soft ground, but confidence is taken from the fact that since the start of 2012, Ian's soft ground NH handicappers are 19/58 (32.8% SR) for 29.8pts (+51.4% ROI) at odds of 5/4 to 6/1.

And finally, his LTO winners sent back out after a rest of less than three weeks are 49 from 160 (30.6% SR) for 55.2pts (+34.5% ROI) in handicap contests since the start of 2014...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Friday evening, whilst Ladbrokes were offering an extras half point on top. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

8.00 Stratford :Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOG WON at 13/8 (2nd until after 1st, chased leaders, went 2nd again 2 out, soon led, clear before last, easily won by some 27 lengths!)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.40 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOG

In an 11-runner, Class 5 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £3184 to the winner... 

Why?

No danger of Tuesday's runner getting nailed late on, as he won by 27 lengths with ease. I'm hoping for a similar level of performance from this 6 yr old gelding, who probably did a little too much on the front end when third (beaten by 2 lengths) when last seen 32 days ago. That said he fared best of those racing prominently and our racecard data suggests prominent racing is successful here over this trip at Worcester.

To date, our boy has...

  • 3 wins and 7 places from 13 in fields of 8 to 11 runners
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 here at Worcester
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 over this 2m7.5f trip
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 under today's jockey Tom O'Brien
  • won his only attempt at course and distance (also ridden by Tom O'Brien that day.

He is trained by Robert Stephens, who seems to have found a little niche in races like today's, as since the start of 2015, his hurdlers are 8 from 33 (24.2% SR) for 45.7pts (+138.5% ROI) here at Worcester, with the following angles of relevance at play on this occasion...

  • over trips of 2m4f to 3m : 5/23 (21.7%) for 46pts (+200%)
  • within 5 weeks of their last run : 7/21 (33.3%) for 36.4pts (+173.3%)
  • handicappers are 6/21 (28.6%) for 42.6pts (+202.9%)
  • on good ground : 5/21 (23.8%) for 43.2pts (+205.7%)
  • ridden by Tom O'Brien : 6/18 933.3%) for 21.95pts (+122%)
  • males are 4/16 (25%) for 41.1pts (+256.6%)
  • those racing off a mark (OR) of 90-105 are 6/15 (40%) for 34.7pts (+231.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 17.2pts (+122.8%)
  • in July : 4/13 (30.8%) for 27pts (+207.7%)
  • 3 to 5 weeks since last run : 4/12 933.3%) for 35.7pts (+297.7%)
  • and those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO are 4/10 (40%) for 28.71pts (+287.1%)

And if you wanted some non-trainer/course specific data, one of my stored micro-systems tells me that in UK Class 3-5 handicap hurdle races over 2 to 3 miles during the March to September period, former course and distance winners who either won or were beaten by 2 lengths or less LTO are 119/502 (23.7% SR) for 252.5pts (+50.3% ROI).

The above will clearly give rise to a whole host of profitable angles, which I won't bore you with, but it's worth noting that...

  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 27/96 (28.1%) for 104.6pts (+108.9%)
  • whilst here at Worcester, they are 18/51 (35.3%) for 89.3pts (+175.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOGwhich was available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th August 2012

Stat of the Day 18/08

Stat of the Day 18/08

Stat of the Day, 18th August 2012

Matt is occupied elsewhere this weekend, so I'm dipping my toes back into the water in a bid to find a successful conclusion to what has already been a good week for us all involved with SotD. Dashwood failed to dash for us yesterday, but at 33/1 it wasn't a massive surprise, so no major disappointments there.

Our quest for a Saturday winner takes us North of the border today for a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle. We're expecting good ground for the eleven runners scheduled to tackle the 2m½f in the Summer Champion Hurdle aka the...

4.15 Perth

Our go-to trainer for Perth has to be Peter Bowen: he doesn't send hundreds of horses to Perth, but the few that do venture North are often well rewarded. In the past two years, he has only had ten representatives at this track, yet has managed to collect prize money on no less than seven occasions, courtesy of six winners and a place. This has rewarded his followers with a level stakes profit of 16pts from those 10 races.

During these fruitful times, Mr Bowen has called upon the services of Tom O'Brien for 8 of those rides: resulting in 4 wins and 2 places and the pair of them join forces again today for just the one ride on Kian's Delight, our SotD pick of the day.

Kian's Delight is a fast improving progressive type and ran really well last time out. On that occasion, he finished second behind Local Hero in a listed event at Market Rasen, despite running from 3lbs out of the handicap. A continuation of his progression or even a run to that same standard should be enough to see him home today in what looks a slightly easier task. With this in mind, the 5/1 BOG currently on offer from bet365, BetVictor and Paddy Power looks quite generous, so I'm in at that price. No half measures today: it's win only for SotD on this one. I'd expect that price to contract as the day goes on, so it would be wise to...

Click here for the latest odds for the 4.15 Perth.