Tag Archives: Tom Dascombe

Stat of the Day, 18th October 2019

Thursday's pick was...

5.30 Chelmsford : Souter Johnnie @ 3/1 BOG 12th at 7/4 (Keen in mid-division on inside, closer chasing leaders over 1f out, hung left and losing place when carried left inside final furlong, eased soon after)

Friday's pick runs in the...

8.25 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlie D @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £5,434 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4yr old gelding is running really well right now, finishing 211313 in his last six outings and has to date achieved the following of relevance regarding today's race...

  • 5 wins, 4 places from 15 in handicaps
  • 5+2 from 14 in a tongue tie
  • 5+4 from 13 in cheekpieces
  • 5+2 from 11 during August to October
  • 5+2 from 9 at 4/1 and shorter
  • 4+2 from 9 as a 4 yr old
  • 2+4 from 9 here at Wolverhampton
  • 3 from 8 in fields of 7 or fewer runners
  • 2+3 from 7 with Richard Kingscote in the saddle
  • 2+1 from 4 over trips of 2m to 2m1f
  • and 2 from 3 within a week of his last run

He's by Animal Kingdom, whose offspring are 7 from 20 (35% SR) for 5.01 (+25% ROI) at trips of 1m6f and beyond, including...

  • 7/10 (70%) for 15.01pts (+150.1%) at odds of evens to 4/1
  • 4/10 (40%) for 5.21pts (+52.1%) over trips of 2m to 2m1f
  • and 4 from 5 (80%) for 10.21pts (+204.2%) over trips of 2m to 2m1f at odds of evens to 4/1

And his trainer Tom Dascombe is 14 from 43 (32.6% SR) for 60.2pts (+140.1% ROI) since the start of 2016 with horses turned back out after less than a week's rest, including of note today...

  • 12/35 (34.3%) for 62.9pts (+179.8%) in handicaps
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 17.4pts (+91.8%) with Richard Kingscote in the saddle
  • 5/20 (25%) for 30.78pts (+153.9%) at Class 4
  • 5/5 (100%) for 22.64pts (+452.8%) from those placed 3rd LTO
  • and 3/6 950%) for 12.17pts (+202.9%) on the A/W...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Charlie D @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power & Hills at 5.35pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.25 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th September 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.40 Salisbury : You're Hired @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leader, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and switched left over 1f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Soft ground worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has finished 122 in his last three starts, beaten by just a head when collared late on at Chester LTO 6 days ago having possibly had to do too much to get in front from a poor-ish draw. Running off the same mark today, it is hoped that a return to a straight 5f wearing first-time blinkers will enough to eke out a little bit from him today.

To date, his career stats under today's conditions include...

  • 3 wins and 2 places from 8 at class 4
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 under jockey Richard Kingscote
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 carrying 9st 2lbs
  • 1 from 1 within a week of his last run
  • and 1 from 1 on soft ground

He's trained by Tom Dascombe and a quick glance at the Racecards tells you that both trainer and jockey have good records at this venue and as Richard is Tom's main jockey, it doesn't take a great leap of faith to guess that as a partnership, they've done well here too.

I think that's pretty much common knowledge, so I won't bore you by drilling down into those details, we can just take it as read that they go well here individually and as a team.

Tom's horses are going well enough right now, winning 6 of 30 (20% SR) over the past fortnight, but that's no real surprise as Tom's one of the trainers included in my "Late Season" trainers to watch. In Tom's case, I look for 2-4 yr old Flat handicappers priced at 15/8 to 9/1 (I don't bet outside those prices very often) during August to October.

Over the last four seasons, Tom has so far supplied me with 161 qualifiers, bearing 39 winners (24.2% SR) and 100.7pts (+62.5% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant today...

  • 37/138 (26.8%) for 115.4pts (+86.3%) off a mark (OR) of 65-100
  • 20/81 (24.7%) for 59.3pts (+73.2%) ridden by Richard Kingscote (who inevitably pops up)
  • 11/48 (22.9%) for 22.4pts (+46.7%) at Class 4
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 56.6pts (+166.4%) here at Haydock
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 26.7pts (+116.2%) over the minimum 5f trip
  • and 5 from 20 (25%) for 9.1pts (+45.5%) this year...

...the figures for 2019 suggest they're still winning, but the market is slowly cottoning on to this angle, but there was still enough juice in the price available...

...for me to suggest... a 1pt win bet on Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG as offered by Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.45pm on Thursday (and also at BF/PP but non-BOG until 8.00am). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

12.40 Chepstow : Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG WON at 7/2 (Always prominent, led before 2nd, challenged before 2 out, stayed on strongly to win by 2.25 lengths) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Finoah @ 10/3 BOG  

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery  for 2yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £4787 to the winner...

Why?

This 2 yr old gelding was a 3-lengths winner over 6 furlongs when last seen 24 days ago, whilst he was only 3 lengths adrift in a Listed contest two starts ago. His only previous visit to Wolverhampton resulted in him going down by just a short head to Sporting Chance, who has himself since won a 6f Listed race!

Since the start of 2016, trainer Tom Dascombe's 2 yr old have a decent record here on this track, winning 12 of 80 (15% SR) for 26.9pts (+33.6% ROI) but it seems that the ones to follow are those ridden by his first choice jockey Richard Kingscote, because of those 80 2yr olds, the trainer/jockey combination is 11 from 56 (19.6% SR) for 47.4pts (+84.7% ROI), including...

  • on horses rested for 11-45 days : 8/30 (26.7%) for 37.5pts (+125%)
  • in fields of 5-9 runners : 9/28 (32.1%) for 65.5pts (+234%)
  • over this 6f C&D : 5/21 (23.8%) for 17.94pts (+85.5%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.86pts

...and from the above...those racing in fields of 5-9 runners over 6f after a break of 11-45 days are 3/6 (50% SR) for 26.43pts (+440.5% ROI)...

Tom Dascombe also has a pretty impressive record of getting his LTO winners to win again, achieving this feat on 107 of 430 (24.9% SR) occasions since the start of 2012. A simple £20 stake on each of those runners would have netted a cool £3484 profit at a healthy ROI of some 40.5%! And that's from just blindly backing all his LTO winners.

Of course, we wouldn't necessarily suggest such an approach, so if you wanted fewer bets...

  • those rested for 11-60 days are 84/312 (26.9%) for 178.72pts (+57.3%)
  • those sent off shorter than 8/1 are 96/291 (33%) for 113.17pts (+38.9%)
  • those ridden by Richard Kingscote are 75/280 (26.8%) for 175.11pts (+62.5%)
  • those racing at the same distance as LTO are 63/241 (26.1%) for 118.4pts (+49.1%)
  • those running on the A/W are 39/120 (32.5%) for 18.33pts (+15.3%)
  • 2yr olds are 29/118 (24.6%) for 94.64pts (+80.2%)
  • Class 4 runners are 29/102 (28.4%) for 39.66pts (+38.9%)
  • those racing over 6f are 28/95 (29.5%) for 71.32pts (+75.1%)
  • in the final quarter of the year (Oct-Dec) : 20/70 (28.6%) for 22.65pts (+32.4%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 17/42 (35.4%) for 24.76pts (+51.6%)
  • and on Tapeta : 10/33 (30.3%) for 12.79pts (+38.8%)

...and a composite from above?...Richard Kingscote on sub-8/1 runners racing over the same distance as an LTO win 11-60 days earlier = 30/79 (38% SR) for 39.4pts (+49.9% ROI) and this includes 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) here at Wolverhampton producing profits of 14.5pts (+181%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Finoah @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by at least 8 firms at 5.45pm on Wednesday evening, whilst there was an extra sixth of a point available with BetBright for the few of you able to get on with them. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th June 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

4.20 Wolverhampton : Mischief Managed@ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Soon chasing leaders on outside, pushed along and outpaced 2f out, ridden and unable to quicken over 1f out, ran on towards finish)

We continue with Thursday's...

2.00 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Quantatmental @ 11/4 BOG 

A 9-runner, Class 5 Handicap for 3yo over 1m3½f on Good To Firm worth £4852 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a 3 yr old gelding who seemed to love the switch to quicker ground when making all to win over 1m4f on his first crack at Good to Firm ground last time out. He stayed on well for a comfortable success 23 days ago and looks a progressive type that might take some catching today, especially from stall 2 against a set of rivals previously lacking a willingness to set any early pace of their own.

His trainer Tom Dascombe is a master at getting LTO winners to repeat the feat with 95 from 381 (24.9% SR) doing so since the start of 2012 and a £10 bet on each of hem would have seen you clear £1458 profit at an ROI of some 38.3% : good going for blindly backing a set of runners. If you didn't want to back all of them, the following filters applicable today might appeal to you...

  • those sent off at 8/1 and shorter are 88/284 (31%) for 87.8pts (+30.9%)
  • those whose LTO win was 11-60 days earlier are 73/271 (26.9%) for 146.4pts (+54%)
  • on the Flat only : 57/267 (21.4%) for 125.5pts (+47%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 19/78 (24.4%) for 23.1pts (+29.7%)
  • and here at Haydock : 19/52 (36.5%) for 56.8pts (+109.1%)

and from the above, you could always just back Flat runners priced at 8/1 and shorter some 11 to 60 days after their LTO win for 40 winners from 136 (29.4% SR) for 56.3pts (+41.4% ROI) and if you did, you'd find that here at Haydock 16 of 43 (37.2%) were winners making 21.4pts (+49.7%) whilst those racing on Good to Firm won 16 of 40 (40%) for 33.85pts (+84.6%), whilst...

...Flat runners on Good to Firm ground here at Haydock priced at 8/1 and shorter are 9 from 12 (75% SR) for 28pts (+233.2% ROI) profit.

Now, much has written elsewhere (and highly likely by me in the past too) about Tom Dascombe's (excellent) record here at Haydock, so I'm not going to plough that particularly worn furrow today, other than to say that this specific type of contest is one to follow him in, as his Class 5 handicappers are 14 from 42 (33.3% SR) for 153pts (+364.3% ROI) here over the last 2.5 seasons (assuming we're roughly halfway through this one!).

And of those 42 Class 5 handicappers here, those racing on Good to Firm are 6/14 (42.9%) for 25.05pts (+178.9%) whilst LTO winners are 4 from 9 (44.4%) for 6.13pts (+68.2%)...

...adding a bit more weight to...a 1pt win bet on Quantatmental @ 11/4 BOG , which was available from 10Bet, Bet365, SkyBet & SportPesa at 5.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th March 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.45 Wetherby : Blakemount @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 9/2 (Prominent early, tracked leaders, led 12th, headed next, weakened 2 out and faded quickly)

We continue with Good Friday's...

3.05 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kachy @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 2, 6f Conditions Stakes (4yo+) on Polytrack worth an eye-watering £93,375 to the winner...

Why?

So, we have a 5yr old ungelded male who has finished 211 in his last three outings. The last two are his only previous all-weather runs and he won both over this course and distance, firstly at this Class 2 grade and then up in Listed class last time out almost 8 weeks ago and was ridden by today's jockey, Richard Kingscote, on both occasions. Based on these facts alone, I'd expect him to be on the premises once more.

His trainer Tom Dascombe doesn't really do the A/W as much as he does Flat racing, but has had 67 winners from 293 (22.9% SR) horses that he has sent here over the last 10 years and backers have been rewarded with profits of 99.1pts at a healthy ROI of 33.8% and of these 293 runners...

  • Richard Kingscote is 52/199 (26.1%) for 96.4pts (+48.5%)
  • in non-handicaps : 36/145 (24.8%) for 43.6pts (+30.1%)
  • over this 6f course and distance : 18/70 (25.7%) for 38pts (+54.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 10/31 (32.3%) for 43.8pts (+141.4%)
  • and in March : 9/31 (29%) for 7.1pts (+23%)

Trainer Tom also does rather well with LTO winners with a 93/367 (25.3% SR) record since 2012 that has generated 155.1pts profit at an ROI of some 42.3%, numbers that are persuasive enough with being broken down, but you know I'm going to break them down anyway!

So, of Tom's 367 LTO winners since 2012...

  • those last seen 11-60 days ago are 71/258 (27.5%) for 154.6pts (+59.9%)
  • those ridden by Richard Kingscote are 67/240 (27.9%) for 170.8pts (+71.2%)
  • on the A/W : 38/111 (34.2%) for 23.3pts (+21%)
  • in non-hcps : 33/107 (30.8%) for 72.6pts (+67.8%)
  • over 6f : 27/86 (31.4%) for 76.3pts (+88.8%)
  • over the same C&D as LTO : 25/62 (40.3%) for 21.4pts (+34.5%)
  • at Class 2 : 13/60 (21.7%) for 32.6pts (+54.4%)
  • here at Lingfield : 15/36 (41.7%) for 9.3pts (+25.9%)
  • 5 yr olds are 10/21 (47.6%) for 36.2pts (+172.5%)
  • and running over 6f here at Lingfield ie today's C&D : 6/11 (54.5%) for 10.7pts (+97.1%)

And I'm going to finish with something more visual and less wordy/numerical (I hope!)...

To do this, please take a look at firstly the pace and then the draw tabs on the racecard for this contest. The pace tab will tell you that Kachy is set to attempt to lead from the off and the draw tab shows that 6-8 runner races over 6f here favour those who like to lead, especially those with a mid to high draw : our boy is drawn 5 of 8.

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Kachy @ 5/2 BOG which was extensively available at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2017

Wednesday's Result :

5.10 Chepstow : Starshell @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 2/1 : Held up mid-division, ridden over 1f out, kept on to take 3rd place inside final furlong...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.35 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Azari @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has won two of his last five starts, including last time out hare at Haydock 26 days ago. He was hanging on somewhat at the end, so the half furlong drop back in trip should help him,as should the booking of the far more experienced and frankly better jockey, Richard Kingscote.

At this time of year as the Flat season approaches a climax, I like to keep an eye out for trainer Tom Dascombe, who tends to pick up more than his fair share of handicaps wins during the closing stages.

Numerically...2011-17 / August-October / 1m to 1m4f / 3-5 yr olds = 22/115 (19.1% SR) for 130.6pts (+113.5% ROI), with the following relevant subsets of data all at play today...

  • those last seen 11-60 days ago : 19/90 (21.1%) for 139.2pts (+154.7%)
  • those ridden by Richard Kingscote : 13/57 (22.8%) for 76.6pts (+134.4%)
  • in September : 12/38 (31.6%) for 81.3pts (+213.9%)
  • at Haydock : 11/30 (36.7%) for 57.4pts (+191.3%)
  • under Kingscote at Haydock : 8/19 (42.1%) for 49.5pts (+260.3%)
  • LTO winners : 7/19 (36.8%) for 17.12pts (+90.1%)
  • at Class 2 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 21.4pts (+152.5%)
  • under Kingscote at Haydock in September : 6/9 (66.7%) for 50.6pts (+562.5%)
  • and under Kingscote at Haydock in September at Class 2 : 2/2 9100%) for 14pts (+700%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on  Azari @ 9/2 BOG, which was available from over half a dozen firms at 5.40pm on Wednesday: the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Coral. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2017

Wednesday's Result :

8.10 Kempton : Clowance One @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/4 Bumped start, tracked leader, led over 4f out, kicked clear from over 2f out, hung right over 1f out, comfortably won by 2 lengths.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Haydock...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

La Celebs Ville3/1 BOG

Why?

A 4 yr old filly looking for a hat-trick of wins over course and distance at this class and although she's up 5lbs for her most recent track, trip and grade success, a 5lb jockey claim negates that and with this being just amongst her own sex, it looks a slightly easier contest on paper, if not grass!

It's no secret that her trainer Tom Dascombe does well here and it's a bot of a lazy bet to just back all his horses here, yet with 73 winners from (18.9% SR) for 289.9pts (+75.1% ROI) since 2010, it's a lazy bet that pays well.

However, us geegeez readers are a bit more savvy than to blindly follow a trainer at a track, especially if there's a way of increasing the ROI, reducing the number of bets and improving the strike rate, or better still all 3! So, from those 386 Haydock runners...

  • handicappers are 47/218 (21.6%) for 201.5pts (+92.4%)
  • at Class 5 : 33/180 (18.3%) for 198.9pts (+110.5%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 6/1 : 52/144 (36.1%) for 113.8pts (+79%)
  • females are 19/93 (17.2%) for 70.4pts (+75.7%)
  • LTO winners are 18/48 (37.5%) for 68pts (+141.6%)
  • and 4 yr olds are 13/46 (28.3%) for 64.4pts (+140.1%)

And if you needed the safety blanket/reassurance of a final layer of stats, she's by Sea The Stars, a fairly useful miler (!!!) in his day and whose offspring are now 38/185 (20.5% SR) for 89.3pts (+48.2% ROI) over the 1 mile trip.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on La Celebs Ville @ 3/1 BOG which was on offer from Bet365, SkyBet, 188Bet, 10 Bet and one other at 6.05pm on Wednesday with plenty of acceptable 11/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Haydock...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st July 2016

Thursday's Result :

5.55 Newbury : Pharoh Jake @ 4/1 BOG still to run (result and report to follow later tonight)

Friday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sidewinder at 100/30 BOG

Why?

Well, quite simply because this 2 yr old colt is trained just over 30 miles south of this track and hasn't far to travel.

I am, of course, joking and there's a little more to this than just the fact he lives in Malpas, Cheshire which sits between Wrexham and Nantwich. He's there, because he's trained by Tom Dascombe, who is one of the go-to guys when you want a bet at Haydock, especially under today's conditions, so let's take a closer look!

First up, we have an excellent overall record for the trainer at this venue, with 60 winners from 309 runners (19.4% SR) generating level stakes profits of 267.5pts at an amazing ROI of 86.6% since the start of the 2010 campaign. Those numbers alone make all his runners here worth backing. However, in the context of this raace, the following present an even stronger argument...

  • Class 3 to 5 runners are 58/277 (20.9%) for 292.5pts (+105.6%)
  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 53/263 (20.2%) for 255.9pts (+97.3%)
  • those with a run in the last 60 days are 50/236 (21.2%) for 207.8pts (+88.1)
  • males are 49/235 (20.9%) for 208.2pts (+88.6%)
  • those ridden by Richard Kingscote are 45/212 (21.2%) for 131.5pts (+62%)
  • handicappers are 37/170 (21.8%) for 186.2pts (+109.6%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 24/131 (18.3%) for 128.8pts (+98.3%)
  • at odds of 13/8 to 6/1 (43/115 (37.4%) for 96.4pts (+83.9%)
  • on soft ground : 11/32 (34.4%) for 97.3pts (+303.9%)
  • and wearing cheekpieces : 7/31 (22.6%) for 59.7pts (+35.5%)

You can, of course, mix and match the above criteria to make your own micro-systems, but this does dilute the sample size.

As for the horse, Sidewinder, he has finished 244 in his three runs to date and now drops in both class and trip after being outpaced late on over further than this last time out just over three weeks ago.

He has run on soft ground once before, when finishing as runner-up beaten by a neck after a slow start ob his debut, but only behind a horse with preiuous race experience. First-time cheekpieces are also applied today and with more rain in the offing, we should get a decent run for our money. I certainly hope so, as I'll be there in person to see how he gets on.

My trip to Haydock tomorrow means that Saturday's pick won't appear online until late Friday night or even early Saturday morning...

...but Friday's play is a 1pt win bet on Sidewinder at 100/30 BOG with Bet365, who were the market leaders at 5.25pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.20 Yarmouth : Bargain Buy @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Took keen hold, prominent, led over 3f out, headed 2f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

8.15 Haydock:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Capo Rosso at 6/1 BOG

Why?

No win in 15 hardly breeds confidence or gets the adrenaline flowing, but he has been running in much better company for most of his outings since last winning in a Class 3 event like this one, back in October 2014.

That said, he has finished as a runner-up in each of his last three contests in this grade, getting closer and closer to winning despite a rising handicap mark (beaten by 1L off 91, then by 0.75L off 93 and then by just a neck off 94, the same mark as today).

The return to Haydock (he has won here before) and the reacquaintance with jockey Richard Kingscote could well be all it needs to eke out hat little bit extra needed to win, especially as horse and jockey are already 6/28 together and Richard has a great record here at this track.

Since the start of the 2010 season, Richard has ridden 50 winners here at Haydock from 276 attempts, with the resultant 18.1% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 136.4pts at an ROI of 49.4%. And of those 276 Haydock rides...

  • he's 43/206 (20.9% SR) for 128.3pts (+62.3% ROI) on Tom Dascombe's horses
  • he's 28/157 (17.8% SR) for 64.8pts (+41.3% ROI) in handicaps
  • and 24/105 (22.9% SR) for 74.8pts (+71.2% ROI) on the Dascombe handicappers.

Furthermore, he's 20/50 (40% SR) for 43.1pts (+86.2% ROI) on the Dascombe handicappers priced at 6/1 and shorter and 9/31 (29% SR) for 78.2pts (+252.3% ROI) in this Class 3 grade.

...so today's play is a 1pt win bet on Capo Rosso at 6/1 BOG with any of the handful of bookies quoting those odds at 6.00pm. For a fuller market overview, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 5th May 2016

Wednesday's Result :

6.45 Chelmsford : Shaan @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Tracked leader, ridden to lead entering final 2f, headed inside final furlong, kept on one pace).

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Chester

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Full Intention at 9/2 BOG.

Why?

This 2 yr old colt was unlucky to be caught on the line on debut at Kempton 24 days ago, but he's sure to come on for having had that run and the only negative I see about him is that he'll have to overcome a poor draw. That said, there's lots of inexperience inside him and he could well pounce early.

He's by Showcasing, whose progeny have done well for this relatively new "father" and to date, his offspring are 111/790 (14.1% SR) for 144.2pts (+18.3% ROI) in the 25 months since his first runner. With reference to this contest, those 790 runners are...

  • 73/443 (16.5% SR) for 163.3pts (+36.9% ROI) as 2 yr olds
  • 62/428 (14.5% SR) for 117.7pts (+27.5% ROI) as males
  • non-handicappers are 64/412 (15.5% SR) for 130.7pts (+31.7% ROI)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 96/400 (24% SR) for 67.7pts (+16.9% ROI)
  • in maidens : 45/296 (15.2% SR) for 103.9pts (+35.1% ROI)
  • in races shorter than 6f : 43/237 (18.1% SR) for 43.7pts (+18.5% ROI)
  • on good to soft ground : 17/95 (17.9% SR) for 20.5pts (+21.6% ROI)

In addition to the suitability of his bloodline for this race, he has the added benefit of the Richard Kingscote/Tom Dascombe combo and when Richard has ridden here at Chester for Tom over the last five seasons, they have combined for 20 winners from 129 (15.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 22.5pts at an ROI of 17.4% from blind backing and those numbers can be further refined in the context of this race, as follows...

  • male runners are 15/95 (15.8% SR) for 17.8pts (+18.7% ROI)
  • those sent off no bigger than 12/1 are 20/91 (22% SR) for 60.5pts (+66.5% ROI)
  • in non-hcps : 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 57.5pts (+104.5% ROI)
  • those returning from a break of just 11 to 25 days are 11/45 (24.4% SR) for 44.6pts (+99.1% ROI)
  • 2yr olds are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 26.8pts (+62.4% ROI)
  • those racing over this 5f trip are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 39.9pts (124.7% ROI)

I won't pretend I'm not a little concerned about the wide draw, but I do think we've been well compensated by the odds on offer, making this a risk worth taking in my book.

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Full Intention at 9/2 BOG with either Hills or BetVictor, who had the standout prices at 6.25pm! To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...