Tag Archives: Thirsk racecourse

Stat of the Day, 30th August 2019

Thursday's pick was...

3.10 Carlisle : Kermouster @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, going well and looking for room inside final 2f, went 2nd over 1f out, sustained run to lead towards finish, all out to win by a short head)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Ukulele @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good to Soft ground worth £4,399 to the winner...

Why?...

Going to keep it pretty simple today with a 3 yr old filly who has been running consistently well for the last year or so, clocking up 3 wins and 4 placed finishes from her last 10 starts with a record of 511 this season, culminating in a course and distance win here in a big-field (14 ran) similar Class 5, 1m handicap almost four weeks ago.

Her career tally now includes (with today's conditions in mind,of course)...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 after less than 30 days rest
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 7 during July-September
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 over a 1m trip
  • 2 wins from 3 in handicaps
  • a win and a place from two previous runs here at Thirsk, both over course and distance
  • and a win and apace from two efforts on Good to Soft ground

In addition to her apparent suitability above, trainer John (JJ) Quinn's LTO winners are 36 from 165 (21.8% SR) for 119.7pts (+72.6% ROI) on the Flat over the last five seasons, including...

  • 29/118 (24.6%) for 129pts (+109.4%) at 11-60 dslr
  • 26/114 (22.8%) for 104pts (+91.3%) over 5f to 1m
  • 21/91 (23.1%) for 89pts (+97.8%) at the same distance as LTO
  • and 9/31 (29%) for 23.8pts (+76.7%) in 3 yr old races

...whilst those LTO winners racing over 5f to 1m within 1f of the last trip they tackled after 11-60 days rest are 20 from 81 (24.7% SR) for 105.5pts (+130.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on My Ukulele @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 9.10pm on Thursday.. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2019

Friday's pick was...

2.25 Goodwood : Duke of Hazzard @ 9/2 BOG  WON at 3/1 (Raced keenly in mid-division, not clear run from inside final 2f until switched left over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, led towards finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundhay Park @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good to Soft ground worth £7,310 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding may have waited a while for his turn to win again, but after making the frame in each of his last three starts, a drop in class allied to favoured ground and preferred trip could be just what he needs to step back into that winners' enclosure.

After all, he does have 4 wins and 2 places from 8 over this 5f trip as well as 4 wins and a place from 8 when sent off at 4/1 and shorter and he has won twice and placed once from five efforts on Good to Soft ground.

His trainer Nigel Tinkler is 7 from 30 (23.3% SR) for 19.5pts (+65.1% ROI) with sub-12/1 handicappers here at Thirsk over the past four seasons, from which those runners are...

  •  7/26 (26.9%) for 23.44pts (+90.2%) over 5/6 furlongs
  • 6/24 (25%) for 10.29pts (+42.9%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 15.12pts (+168%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 7.75pts (+70.5%) in August/September
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 15.46pts (+193.3%) dropping down a class
  • 2/8 (25%) for 3.34pts (+41.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 3.16pts (+105.3%) with today's jockey Scott Rowan in the saddle...

...whilst those racing over 5/6f less than 3 weeks after a top 4 finish LTO are 5/10 (50% SR) for 20.28pts (+202.8% ROI).

That stat about class droppers is highlighted by the fact that over the last four seasons, Nigel's handicappers dropping down a grade on the Flat or A/W are 24/100 (24% SR) for 56pts (+56% ROI) when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 11/1, including...

  • 22/89 (24.7%) for 55.9pts (+62.8%) within 30 days of their last run
  • 19/86 (22.1%) for 34.8pts (+40.5%) on the Flat
  • 15/48 (31.25%) for 43.1pts (+89.8%) finished in the top 4 LTO
  • and 5/21 (23.8%) for 7.9pts (+37.5%) at Class 4

...and those running on the Flat with 30 days of a top 4 inside LTO are 11/39 (28.2% SR) for 25pts (+64.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Roundhay Park @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available at 6.40pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.30 Brighton : Kachumba @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 4/1 (Dwelt close up, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong : very disppointing effort IMO-Chris)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atletico @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £4399 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, I generally don't get too involved in the bigger-field handicaps (at any level), as they often prove too open/competitive, but with only two runners coming here with any discernible recent form, I think I've found an opportunity for us.

The two runners in question actually met here over course and distance back in April, when our boy was the runner-up, 1.25 lengths behind the re-opposing Thornaby Nash, who certainly had a clearer run than Atletico that day. Our selection here is now some 8lbs better off which under normal circumstances should be more than enough to reverse the placings.

Atletico has ran three more times since that runner-up finish, coming home 3rd, 3rd and then 2nd again over this trip last time out, but that was at Chelmsford in a Class 3 handicap and he now drops 2 classes and his turf mark (OR) is a full 12lbs lower than his A/W rating.

After all the above "circumstantial evidence", I'm keeping it simple with the numbers.

Once again we have a trainer, who doesn't send many to the selected track, but does more than well enough with the ones he sends here. In David Evans' defence the near 500-mile/9 hour round trip from Monmouthshire is a more than valid excuse, but since 2015, the 22 runners he has brought here have yielded 6 winners (27.3% SR) and 38.4pts (+174.6% ROI) profit at betfair SP and amongst that 6 from 22 record, the following are applicable/of relevance today...

  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 44.4pts (+277.6%) from those who last raced 1 week to 1 month ago
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 43.4pts (+255.4%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 35.5pts (+208.9%) off a mark (OR) lower than 70
  • 4/10 (40%) for 33.6pts (+336%) in July
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 5.49pts (+45.8%) sent off at Evens to 6/1
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.1pts (+93.4%) from male runners
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.26pts (+231.5%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 27.7pts (+346.1%) over this 7f C&D

...from which...those racing off a mark lower than 70 over trips of 6/7 furlongs after a break of 7-30 days are 5 from 11 (45.6% SR) for 41.5pts (+377.4% ROI) and this includes 3 winners and 2 runners-up from 6 over this 7f course and distance...

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Atletico @ 5/1 BOG as offered by pretty much everyone at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.30 Epsom : Telecaster @ 5/1 BOG 13th at 3/1 (With leader, keen, led over 5f out, hung right and headed over 1f out, kept on under pressure)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ingleby Hollow @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f  on Good to Firm ground worth £5715 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding comes here after running without much success at Class 4 (although he did win a couple of hurdle contests over the summer, suggesting stamina wouldn't be his downfall here) and now drops back to Class 5 company for the first time since winning over 1m5f at Hamilton 11 months ago. That was off a mark of 76 under today's jockey Danny Tudhope and the drop back in class allied to a mark now 4lbs lower than that run suggests he well be weighted to score here.

He's currently 6 from 25 (24%) at Class 5, 5 from 22 (22.7%) under Danny Tudhope, 5 from 23 (21.7%) wearing a tongue tie and has a win and a place from two previous visits to this track : decent figures for an essentially Class 5 horse.

His trainer, David O'Meara, does well with this type of runner at this venue : more specifically, his Class 4/5 handicappers are 27 from 156 (17.3% SR) for 54.5pts (+34.9% ROI) backed blindly here at Thirsk since 2011. As usual, I'm not suggesting you follow the angle doggedly, so here are some ways of reducing the outlay whilst increasing both the SR and the ROI, as of the 27 winners...

  • 26 were from 137 (19%) running off marks of 67-85 giving 65.7pts at an ROI of 48%
  • 23/111 (20.7%) for 68.7pts (+61.9%) from 4-8 yr olds
  • 22/105 (20.9%) for 52.7% (+50.2%) on Good/Good to Firm ground
  • 20/91 (22%) for 60.1pts (+66.1%) from April to July
  • 18/61 (29.5%) for 64.5pts (+105.8%) ridden by Danny Tudhope
  • 17/44 (38.6%) for 25.2pts (+57.3%) sent off at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 19.8pts (+68.4%) ran 6-10 days earlier
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 30pts with one previous Thirsk win
  • and 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.4pts (+78.9%) over this 1m4f course and distance

Now, I know that some of you like me to combine some of the filters to produce a composite angle/micro-system to take forward, so I'd suggest...

...Danny Tudhope on David O'Meara's 4-8yr olds running off marks of 67-85 on Good/Good to Firm ground in Class 4/5 handicaps at Thirsk, which would give you 13 winners from 34 (38.2% SR) for 55.5pts (+163.3% ROI) : essentially reducing the original stat by 122 bets, but giving an extra point of profit! And from this 13/34 result, there are 5 winners from 7 (71.4% SR) for 27.8pts (+396.5% ROI) over the 1m4f course and distance...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ingleby Hollow @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Black Type, SkyBet & Unibet at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th May 2019

Friday's pick was...

3.45 Newmarket : Gumball  @ 9/4 BOG 4th at 6/5 (Led, pushed along and headed 3f out, tracked leader, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3398 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner last time out just 7 days when a pretty comfortable victor over course and distance in this grade a week ago under today's jockey Rowan Scott, who once again claims 3lbs.

And now, the numbers...

1. This runner has 2 wins and a place from 8 runs to date and they include of relevance today...

  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 at Class 6
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 at 6f
  • 1 win, 1 place here at Thirsk
  • 1 from 1 under Scott Rowan

2. Trainer Nigel Tinkler's LTO winners are 16 from 80 (20% SR) for 26.6pts (+33.3% ROI) in Flat handicaps since 2009, when turned back out after less than three week's rest and these include...

  • 9/29 (31%) for 22.84pts (+78.8%) over the last two seasons
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 42pts (+174.9%) over 6f
  • 3/10 (30%) for 17.9pts (+179%) in May
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 8.08pts (+202%)

3. Whilst Nigel's record here at Thirsk in Flat handicaps since the start of 2017 season stands at 6 from 18 (33.3% SR) for 20.57pts (+114.3% ROI) with horses sent off shorter than 12/1, from which...

  • over this 6f C&D : 5/15 (33.3%) for 19.8pts (+132%)
  • within 15 days of last run : 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.32pts (+112%)
  • at Class 6 : 4/10 (40%) for 19.62pts (+196.2%)
  • at 5/1 and shorter : 5/7 (71.4%) for 17.31pts (+247.3%)
  • on Good to Firm : 2/4 (50%) for 15.45pts (+386.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/2 (100%) for 6.94pts (+347%)

4. And finally, since 2010 in Class 6 Flat handicaps, horses who won at the same class, track and trip LTO 4-10 days earlier are 51 from 152 (33.6%) for 35.2pts (+23.2% ROI), including...

  • at 7/1 and shorter : 51/135 (37.8%) for 52.2pts (+38.7%)
  • at trips shorter than a mile : 28/80 (35%) for 28.7pts (+35.9%)
  • and at 7/1 and shorter over trips shorter than a mile : 28/67 (41.8%) for 41.7pts (+62.2%), including 8 wins from 16 (50% SR) for 15.72pts (+98.25% ROI) over the last two seasons...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG which was available BetVictor, Betfair & Betway at 6.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th May 2018

Friday's Runner was...

2.40 Market Rasen : The Blue Bomber @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd after 3 out, ridden after last, kept on towards finish, beaten by little more than a length)

We end a disappointing week with Saturday's...

6.45 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stonific @ 6/1 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 6,  1m4f  Flat Handicap (4yo+) on good to firm ground worth £6728 to the winner... 

Why?

This is a very lightly raced, but in-form 5 yr old gelding. Just 5 starts to date and only two on turf so far. He was only beaten by a length as a runner-up on his turf debut at Doncaster when staying on late over 1m2f before winning last time out a fortnight ago.

That was at Haydock in a Class 4 handicap where he stayed on well again to get up by a neck, once again looking like a longer trip would suit him better. He gets that (+1.5f) today and with the yard's first choice jockey booked, more is expected today.

That jockey is Danny Tudhope and he rides this Thirsk track really well, winning 42 of 217 (19.4% SR) races here since 2011, generating profits of 104.4pts (+48.1% ROI) along the way for those who like to follow certain jockeys at certain tracks.

Trainer David O'Meara's horses are in very good nick right now too, as exemplified by 11 winners from 57 (19.3% SR) for 31pts (+54.4% ROI) over the last two weeks with those running on turf winning 11 of 51 (21.6%) for 37pts (+72.5%). Of these 51 Flat (turf) runners...

  • handicappers are 9/39 (23.1%) for 38.5pts (+98.8%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 9/25 (36%) for 43.3pts (+173.2%)
  • handicappers ridden by Danny Tudhope are 7/18 (38.9%) for 39.8pts (+221.2%)
  • here at Thirsk : 2/8 (25%) for 19.4pts (+242.5%)
  • and handicappers ridden by Danny Tudhope here at Thirsk : 1/3 (33.3%) for 16.05pts (+535%)

Those recent trainer/jockey figures are no purple patch nor a surprise, as since the start of the 2012 season, Messrs O'Meara & Tudhope have teamed up 1314 times in Flat (turf) handicaps, winning 217 (16.5% SR) of them for profits of 222.7pts at an decent ROI of 16.9%, from which...

  • here at Thirsk : 17/80 (21.25%) for 33.5pts (+41.8%)
  • and this season alone = 9/27 (33.3%) for 46.7pts (+172.9%) already!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Stonific @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 8.25pm on Friday (although I've just taken 7/1 with Sky). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th August 2016

Thursday's Result :

4.00 Musselburgh : Ginger Jack @ 7/2 BOG (2.99/1 after R4) WON at 9/4 (Tracked leaders early, mid-division, ridden and effort 3f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, ran on, led towards finish to win by a neck)

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.55 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jaarih at 7/2 BOG

Why?

Jaarih is a former course and distance winner, who has finished 2nd and then 1st in two starts in fields of 1 to 7 runners and is 1 from 1 under the in-form Paul Mulrennan on the Flat. (Paul has won 11 of his last 50 outings).

Jaarih is by Starspangledbanner, whose offspring are 46/237 (19.4% SR) for 199pts (+83.9% ROI) over trips shorter than a mile, including....

  • 23/114 (20.2%) for 165.7pts (+145.4%) in non-hcps
  • 30/84 (35.7%) for 53pts (+63.1%) at odds of 2/1 to 5/1
  • 5/10 (50%) for 20.28pts (+202.8%) at Class 6

AND... males rated (OR) 55-85 who carry top weight in a seller/claimer over trips of less than 10 furlongs are 215/727 (29.6% SR) for 134.2pts (+18.5% ROI) since 2008. This large sample size includes the following of note here today...

  • non-hcps : 214/719 (29.8%) for 138.7pts (+19.3%)
  • Class 6 : 196/646 (30.3%) for 126pts (+19.5%)
  • carrying 9-03 to 10-01 : 174/588 (29.6%) for 139pts (+23.6%)
  • priced at 6/5 to 5/1 : 137/402 (34.1%) for 79.8pts (+19.8%)
  • rated (OR) 61 to 72 : 107/378 (28.3%) for 148.4pts (+39.3%)

and a 20 (-ish) bets per year top weight in claimer/seller micro? OK, Class 6 , non hcp , 9-03 to 10-01 , 6/5 to 5/1 , OR 59 to 73 gives 66 winners from 176 (37.5% SR) for 73.3pts (+41.7% ROI)

...and... a 1pt win bet on Jaarih at 7/2 BOG, from any of Betbright, Betfair Sports, BetVictor and/or Paddy Power all quoting that price at 6.30pm, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Thirsk.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2016

Thursday's Result :

8.45 Newbury : Golden Wedding @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 11/8 (Tracked leaders, ridden to challenge over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, just held and beaten by a short head)

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.15 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Courier at 11/4 BOG

Why?

Now, she might well be 0/9 on the Flat, but she's ertainly due a win and has been running well over trips that are (in my opinion anyway) too long for her. She's made the frame in 6 of those 9 Flat defeats, suggesting she's there or thereabouts most of the time and has a habit of getting caught late on.

She likes it here at Thirsk, having gone well here in each of her last two outings, both over 7f and where she had led in both entering the final furlong, before being headed. A drop back to 6f in familiar surroundings might be all that it takes to get her off the mark.

This is backed up by the fact that her fellow Equiano progeny are 33/254 (13% SR) for 30.8pts (+12.1% ROI) over 5 to 6f in Flat handciaps, with a 14/84 (16.7%) record on Good to Firm ground generating 45.4pts (+54%) profit.

In addition to the drop in trip, she gets the benefit of trainer Marjorie Fife's use of the 3lb claim from jockey Jacob Butterfield and although it's a fairly small sample size, Marjorie's Flat handicappers are 5 from 21 (23.8% SR) for 11.9pts (+56.7% ROI) when priced at 6/4 to 7/1 and ridden by a 3lb claimer in a Flat handicap since 2013. Of those 21 runners, those competing over 6 to 7.5 furlongs are 3/9 (33.3%) for 14.86pts (+165.1%)

...and so, the call is a 1pt win bet on Courier at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, who headed the market at 5.30pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

SotD, Monday 10th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2015

I went with Gowanharry on Saturday, partly because of trainer Micheal Dods's record in handicaps at Ayr and with his two runners finishing 1st and 2nd in our featured race, the proof was in the proverbial pudding.

To my naked eye, the margin of victory looked more than the official neck declared and thankfully it was our runner that prevailed and she appealed to still have something in hand at the finish.

She had been well supported thoughout the day, which made our advised 11/4 BOG odds look very good indeed, as she was returned a 6/4 winner.

That meant we had 4 winners from 6 last week, but Monday starts a new week, the slate is wiped clean and we start all over again in the...

6.00 Thirsk :

A 10-runner, Class 4 , 5 furlong sprint for 2 yr olds on good to firm ground where the presence of a very short favourite means we can avail ourselves of some of the 5/1 BOG on offer for Ralph (Raif) Beckett's colt Point of Woods, who aims to go one better than when rattling the crossbar at York a little over a fortnight ago.

Regular readers of my column will know that Mondays are generally low on quality, numbers of runners and potential statistical angles to explore. They also know that I'm quite fond of using trainers like Ralph Beckett, because he has such a large number of runners historically to work from.

And so, on another tricky Monday, we're back with Ralph and the obvious starting point, which is something I've advised you to do in the past...

...back all his runners!

Really. Back them all. And if you'd done so since the start of 2008, this is where'd you be : 493 winners from 3044 bets, a very healthy 16.2% strike rate bearing level stakes profits (LSP) of some 567.6pts at an ROI of 18.7%. These are truly remarkable figures from blindly backing around 400 per year, but I do appreciate that might be a little too much action for some of you, so we'll break the 3044 bets down as follows...

  • non-hcps : 271/1591 (17% SR) for 448.6pts (+28.2% ROI)
  • maidens : 215/1160 (18.5% SR) for 322.5pts (+27.8% ROI)
  • 2 yr olds : 143/938 (15.2% SR) for 292.6pts (+31.2% ROI)
  • Class 4 : 119/784 (15.2% SR) for 101 pts at an ROI of 12.9%

For a small microsystem generating around 85-90 bets a year, backing Ralph Beckett's 2yo maidens (like Point of Woods!) gives 108 winners from 666 (16.2% SR, in line with his overall SR) and profits of 271.5pts (+40.8% ROI).

Point of Woods is Ralph's only runner here at Thirsk today and since 2008, he has sent 1386 horses to run on thier own at a track and the 248 winners givess a very respectable 17.9% win ratio that has so far generated 335.7pts of profit at an ROI of 24.2%, which is very good indeed. It should also be noted that of those 1386 sole travellers, 590 of them were Ralph's only runner of the day like Point of Woods is today.

Of those 590 single entrants, 117 (19.8% SR) have been winners and they have produced LSP of 170.3pts at an ROI of 28.9% to date.

Point of Woods is by Showcasing, whose offsapring have done really well over the last two seasons, since his first foal hit the track in April 2014. TO be more precise, his progeny are 79/474 (16.7% SR) for 22.6pts profits (+47% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • 2yr olds : 59/309 (18.1% SR) for 168.1pts (+54.4% ROI)
  • maidens : 41/219 (18.7% SR) for 160pts (+73.1% ROI)
  • 2yo maidens : 34/185 (18.4% SR) for 140.3pts (+75.8% ROI)
  • 5 furlong races : 30/159 (18.9% SR) for 49.3pts (+31% ROI)
  • good to firm ground : 16/137 (11.7% SR) for 87.6pts (+63.9% ROI)
  • Class 4 races :14/76 (18.4% SR) for 20pts (+26.3% ROI)

The strike rates for all those angles are pretty consistent and all produce decent profits. Unfortunately if you attempt to combine more than a couple of the elements above, it makes your sample size too small too work with, but with a slight relaxation of the criteria, I have a workable micro as follows...

Showcasing's 2yo maidens at 5-6 furlongs on ground ranging from Good to Soft through to Good to Firm at Classes 3 to 5 are 19/107 (17.8% SR) for 75pts (+70.1% ROI), with those priced at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 11 of 38 (29% SR) for 31.9pts (+83.9% ROI).

And that's your lot for Monday!

I've taken 5/1 BOG about Point of Woods from the Betfair Sportsbook and as of 1.00am, it was also available from Bet365, with many firms not yet quoting on the race.

Once the full market is open, you'll be able to...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 31st July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 31st July 2015

Hats off to Andrew Mullen for the way he rode Fantasy Gladiator at Nottingham on Thursday afternoon. He blew the start lost plenty of ground and then once he'd played catch up had to be restrained quite vigorously for a while.

They then went three wide around the final turn and Andrew has to drive him on form a fair way out, but thy gradually passed all in front of them, getting up late on to win by half a length with possibly something to spare.

It was certainly an interesting race that we never really looked like winning until the closing stages, but a 3/1 winner at advised odds gets the week back on track and now I'll look to close July out with one more winner via Friday's...

2.20 Thirsk :

A Class 4, 5 furlong fillies' nursery handicap for seven runners on good to soft ground and a 3/1 BOG bet on Lydia's Place.

Some days I have quite a few potential qualifiers for SotD and I find it hard to choose between them. Often the potential candidates have piles and piles of stats for me to throw at you to qualify the selection. Today, unfortunately, isn't one of those days!

What I do have is a horse is form with low miles on the clock, but with race conditions set to suit her based on past runs and although the sample sizes are very small, they're no less relevant in context of the race.

So, basically I've not much to tell you, but it's worth noting (IMO).

All four career runs have been over today's trip, finishing 8111.
She's 3 from 3 in Yorkshire.
She's 3 from 3 under jockey Rob Hornby.
She's 3 from 3 on a straight track.
She's 1 from 1 in handicaps and also 1/1 at this Class 4 level.

She did, however, win at Class 3 last time out, so despite a 3lb rise for her latest win, this is an easier race for her (on paper, at least) and with her trainer already having 4 winners from the 17 (23.5% SR) flat handicappers dropped in price this year (12.5pts profit at an ROI of 73.7%), the signs look promising.

And that's about it, short and sweet as intimated above!

I've taken my 3/1 BOG with Totesport, but as of 10.45pm on Thursday, at least six other firms were offering the same deal, so...

...to see the very latest odds from all our featured bookies for Lydia's Place...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.