Tag Archives: Stratford racecourse

Stat of the Day, 31st October 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.50 Wolverhampton : Mischief Star @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Held up towards rear on outside, headway and in touch over 4f out, effort over 1f out, soon ridden, kept on, no extra towards finish, beaten by just over a length)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Stratford:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Timoteo @ 7/2 or 10/3

...in a 13-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on Soft worth £7408 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding is 2 from 2 over fences so far, including a win at this grade and one at this track. He's by Diamond Green, whose chasers are 8 from 20 (40% SR) for 8.94pts (+44.7% ROI) since the start of last year and these 20 runners (all male) are...

  • 8/10 (80%) for 18.94pts (+189.4%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 6.2pts (+44.3%) aged 6 or 7
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 10.95pts (+121.7%) on Good to Soft or "worse"
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.57pts (+61.9%) at trips of 2m3f to 2m4.5f
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.23pts (+131.8%) at Class 3
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 5.13pts (+73.3%) from LTO winners
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 5.21pts (+86.8%) as 6 yr olds

His trainer, Alan King, is 20 from 68 (29.4% SR) for 18.94pts (+27.9% ROI) here at Stratford since 2013, including of note today...

  • 19/55 (34.5%) for 21.93pts (+39.9%) at Class 3/4
  • 17/53 (32.1%) for 24.1pts (+45.5%) with male runners
  • 16/32 (50%) for 37.42pts (+116.9%) from those aged 5 or 6 yrs old
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 13.25pts (+88.4%) aged 6
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 2.84pts (+11.8%) at Class 3
  • 6/15 (40%) for 4.2pts (+28%) with Chasers
  • 6/10 (60%) for 12.66pts (+126.6%) with LTO winners
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 10.97pts (+91.4%) at trips of 2m3f to 2m3.5f
  • 3/5 (60%) for 1.85pts (+37%) at 2m3.5f
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 1.5pts (+30%) on Soft ground...

...whilst from the above, males aged 5/6 at Class 3/4 are 14 from 20 (70% SR) for 41.78pts (+208.9% ROI), including 4/4 (100%) for 10.38pts (+259.5%) this year alone!

And lastly for today, I should mention Alan King's record with LTO winners, particularly those sent off at odds ranging from 9/4 to 10/1 in NH handicaps, as such runners are 13 from 62 (21% SR) for 23.5pts (+37.9% ROI) over the last 4 years, including...

  • 12/47 (25.5%) for 34.8pts (+74.1%) aged 5-7 yrs old
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 9.82pts (+40.9%) at Class 3
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 15.2pts (+101.1%) with 5-7 yr olds at Class 3
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 15pts (+55.5%) in the second half of the year
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 20pts (+90.8%) with 5-7 yr olds in the second half of the year
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 8.45pts (+140.8%) with 5-7 yr olds at Class 3 in the second half of the year

...all of which has steered me towards...a 1pt win bet on Timoteo @ 7/2 or 10/3 as was offered by Bet365 (7/2 BOG) and Betfair/PP (10/3 BOG in the morning) at 5.45pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th October 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.25 Fontwell : Included @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 2/1 (Tracked leader, led after 4 out, headed next, rallied 2 out, kept on same pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Black Buble @ 10/3 BOG 

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6f on Good to Soft ground worth £6,108 to the winner...Handicap Hurdle

Why?...

No massive data overload today, going to keep this short and sweet with a 6 yr old gelding reappearing from a break of 165 days after having put some decent work in earlier in the year when finishing 15112 in his five runs in 2019.

He's 3 from 4 (1112) under today's jockey Jonjo O'Neill Jnr, 2 from 3 (311) at trips of 2m 5.5f and beyond with a perfect 2 from 2 record at those longer trips with today's rider in the saddle.

His trainer Tony Carroll is 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 14.62pts (+292.4% ROI) in handicap hurdles here at Stratford with horses sent off at 5/1 and shorter since the start of 2015, all of which were males and include...

  • 2 from 2 for 9.9pts at Class 3
  • and 1 from 1 for 3.85pts in October

...and on a day whose racing looks mediocre at best, I feel there's enough there...

...to justify... a 1pt win bet on Black Buble @ 10/3 BOG as was offered by BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.30pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

5.30 Worcester : King Alfonso @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Held up in last pair, tracked leaders after 5 out, ridden after 3 out, one pace when switched inside 2 out, stayed on to take narrow 3rd towards finish, no impression)

Thurday's pick runs in the...

1.00 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blue N Yellow @ 10/3 non-BOG until morning or 3/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Novice Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on Good ground worth £3,509 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding carries top weight (12-0) here today, but arrives in decent enough form and a repeat of his run LTO when 3rd at Worcester 23 days ago could well be enough as he drops down a class.

Trainer Tom George is hardly a frequent visitor to Stratford with just 74 runners here over the last 6 years, but with 18 winners (24.3% SR) generating profits of 35.8pts (+48.4% ROI), it's often worth the journey. With today's race in mind, here are how those 74 runners stack up...

  • 16/67 (23.9%) for 35.6pts (+53.1%) from males
  • 14/36 (38.9%) for 5.8pts (+16.1%) at odds shorter than 4/1
  • 13/37 (35.1%) for 51.9pts (+140.2%) at trips shorter than 2.5 miles
  • 12/41 (29.3%) for 52.5pts (+128%) from 6-8 yr olds
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 20.1pts (+71.8%) in Novice races
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 11.9pts (+45.8%) over hurdles

I know that some people are wary of backing horses carrying 12 stones or more, but since the start of 2016 in UK Class 4/5 handicap hurdle contests, 5-9 yr olds with the top OR in the race carrying top weight of 12-0 to 12-5 are 61/197 (31% SR) for 139.3pts (+71.1% ROI) at 3-30 days after their last run, from which...

  • males are 49/160 (30.6%) for 122.7pts (+77.2%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 8/1 : 47/131 (35.9%) for 111pts (+85.4%)
  • at Class 5 : 31/89 (34.8%) for 104.8pts (+119.1%)
  • those dropping 1 class are 17/63 (27%) for 80.5pts (+129.8%)
  • here at Stratford : 4/8 (50%) for 15.7pts (+196.1%)

...whilst Class 5 males at 5/4 to 8/1 are 21/50 (42% SR) for 50.2pts (+104% ROI) with those dropping down a class winning 11 of 22 (50%) for 38.9pts (+185.2%).

And finally, I want to quickly look at the pace tab on your Racecards, as this says that prominent runners fare best in this type of contest and our pick has scored 3 in three of his last four starts and averages 2.5 over those four runs, so if he runs to his usual style, he should have a great chance again today.

In addition to that running style being preferable here...over the last 6 yrs in UK Class 4/5 handicap hurdle contests, 5-9 yr olds carrying 12-0 to 12-5 over trips up to 2.5 miles on ground "better" than heavy are 83/333 (24.9% SR) for 83.1pts profit (+25% ROI) at ISP (and we'd always expect to beat ISP in the long run) when racing with a pace score of 2 or higher. Those who race prominently (ie scoring 3 or 4) are 53/176 (30.1%) for 80.4pts (+45.7%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Blue N Yellow @ 10/3 non-BOG until morning or 3/1 BOG as was available at 5.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Kempton : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Off the pace in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, closed to lead towards finish to win by a head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m1½f  on Good To Soft, worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding making just a fifth start over fences having progressively during a form line of 4331 over the larger obstacles, culminating in an easy 9 length success at Fontwell 25 days ago.

He's by Alberto Giacometti, not the most well known of sires, but whose offspring are 18/69 (26.1% SR) for 66.5pts (+96.4% ROI) in NH contests over 2m to 2m2f since 2012, including...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 71.56pts (+210.5%) from December to April
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 67.9pts (+199.6%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 7.76pts (+28.8%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/20 (30%) for 66.7pts (+333.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.56pts (+143.7%) since the start of 2017
  • and 6/13 (46.2%) for 0.04pts (+0.3%) from LTO winners...

...whilst trainer Gary Moore's own record with chasers who won LTO currently stands at 36 from 119 (30.25% SR) for 58.9pts (+49.5% ROI) profit since 2013, from which...

  • those who ran in the previous 60 days are 32/94 (34%) for 66.3pts (+70.5%)
  • at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m2f : 20/49 (40.9%) for 44.1pts (+90%)
  • at 1m7.5f to 2m2f within 60 days of last run : 18/38 (47.4%) for 46.2pts (+121.6%)
  • and those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 19.37pts (+322.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports & SkyBet at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.50 Fontwell : Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by the Trainer at 14:14, because the going was changed to Good to Soft from Good / Good to Firm in places)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground, worth £8837 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 outings so far, including 2+3 from 5 over hurdles. He's 3+1 from 5 on good ground, 2+2 from 5 under jockey Richard Johnson and 2+1 from 3 in fields of 7-9 runners, so conditions should be fine for him here.

This is his first outing in just over 20 weeks (143 days to be precise), but whilst that can be a concern for some horses, he did make the frame on this very date last year off a break of 182 days and then in April of this year won after a 126 day absence, so my fears on that score are allayed somewhat.

His trainer Philip Hobbs has had a quiet late summer/early autumn thus far, sending out just 19 runners in the last 60 days but with 7 winners (36.8% SR) in that period and a 30-day record of 4 from 12 (33.3%), I think the yard is just getting to ramp up for the season proper. His record here at Stratford is decent enough too, with 22 winners from 83 (26.5% SR) yielding punter profits of 40.5pts (+48.8% ROI) since the start of 2013 and with this contest in mind, those 83 runners are...

  • 17/59 (28.8%) for 53pts (+89.9%) in handicaps
  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 15.9pts (+39.7%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 42.3pts (+128.2%) at Class 3
  • and 6/28 (21.45) for 6.6pts (+23.5%) over hurdles

...whilst from the above : Hobbs + Johnson + Class 3 handicap = 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 18.2pts (+140.1% ROI).

That 13/40 trainer/jockey stat above is unsurprising as more generally the partnership is 32 from 146 (21.9% SR) for 33.4pts (+22.9% ROI) in Class 3 handicap hurdles here in the UK since the start of 2012.

And finally, I'd like to refer back to this horse coming off a break of just over 20 weeks. I already said he'd run well previously after a lay-off, but it's worth noting that this yard's runners do very well when the market money is down on one coming back from a lay off. In numerical terms, I'm telling you that since the start of 2010, Philip Hobbs' runners priced at 11/8 to 9/2 returning from an absence of 4 to 8 months are 54 from 167 (32.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.9pts (+25.7% ROI) and once again with this race in mind, this stat includes...

  • male runners at 52/153 (34%) for 50pts (+32.7%)
  • in the August-January half-year : 48/141 (34%) for 49.6pts (+35.2%)
  • with RJ in the saddle : 37/109 (34%) for 37.7pts (+34.6%)
  • over hurdles : 29/84 (34.5%) for 32.4pts (+38.6%)
  • in handicaps : 29/83 (34.9%) for 31.2pts (+37.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/46 (37%) for 17.3pts (+37.5%)
  • and over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f : 6/11 (54.5%) for 15.43pts (+140.3%)

And those pretty consistent numbers can be combined to make several profitable angles. of course, each time you add a layer, you dilute the sample size but if you wanted, you could go with...RJ on male hcp hurdlers from Aug-Jan for 10 wins from 22 (45.5% SR) and 18.33pts (+83.3% ROI) profit from which those racing over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f are 3/5 (60%) for 7.5pts (+150%)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  , a price widely available at 7.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2018

Monday's Pick was...

6.30 Windsor : Camomile Lawn @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Held up towards rear, headway on outside chasing leaders over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.05 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Scotsbrook Night @ 10/3 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 5, 2m3f Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ on Good ground, worth £4159 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old comes here in good nick, having finished 323231 since returning from a 216-day absence in May this year. She was last seen 12 days ago, winning comfortably by 6 lengths here over course and distance staying on well under today's jockey Marc Goldstein.

She's trained by Shaun Lycett, whose LTO winners are 8 from 28 (28.6% SR) for 7pts (+25% ROI) profit since the start of 2014 and these include...

  • at odds of 4/1 and shorter : 8/13 (61.5%) for 22pts (+169%)
  • 6-20 days since last run : 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.85pts (+142.8%)
  • NH runners : 4/8 (50%) for 8.19pts (+102.4%)
  • hurdlers : 3/6 (50%) for 6.68pts (+111.3%)
  • and hurdlers at 4/1 & shorter are 3/3 (100%) for 9.68pts (+322.7%)

Scotsbrook Night was sired by the late (and great IMO) Midnight Legend (regular/long-term readers will recall my liking for ML offspring), whose "daughters" are 37/157 (23.6% SR) for 131.1pts (+83.5% ROI) in handicap hurdles over trips shorter than 2.5 miles since the start of 2014, from which...

  • those aged 5 to 8 are 37/141 (26.2%) for 147.1pts (+104.3%)
  • at Class 3 to 5 : 36/140 (25.7%) for 135.1pts (+96.5%)
  • and those aged 5 to 8 running at Class 3 to 5 are 36/124 (29%) for 151.1pts (+121.9%)

And finally/more generally, it's worth noting that in UK handicap hurdles since the start of 2013, female runners who won a novice hurdle LTO 11 to 90 days earlier are 39/193 (20.2% SR) for 63.7pts (+33% ROI) with those returning to the same course and distance as that LTO success winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) for 16.1pts (+100.4%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Scotsbrook Night @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power on opening show at 5.15pm on Monday evening. SkyBet also opened up (5.30pm) at 10/3 BOG too. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2018

Monday's Pick was...

8.45 Hamilton : Isabella @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Led, driven and hard pressed from over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on when narrowly headed inside final furlong, just held)

We continue with Tuesday's...

8.00 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6f on Good to Firm ground worth £5588 to the winner... 

Why?

After falling just short yesterday (pace prediction spot on, but she just couldn't see it out), today's cards are not what I wanted to face looking for a winner, as it's possibly the worst day's racing I've seen for a while. That said, every race has a winner and I expect this 7yr old gelding to do just that.

I'm going to keep it simple, though and start with the horse himself. A runner-up on each of his last two starts, firstly over 2m1.5f and then over 2m4.5f twelve days ago, he stayed on well both times but looked like he needs even further, so an extra 350 yards or so could well make all the difference today.

He's trained by Donald McCain, who admittedly hasn't had as many winners of late as he'd have liked (a feeling I'm very familiar with!), but with 60% of his 20 runners making the frame over the last fortnight, the signs are there that both the camp is in good nick and better times are around the corner.

I should at this point draw the correlation between today's type of contest and Donald's recent record, because since the start of 2016, you could blindly back his Class 2 to 5 handicap hurdlers over trips of 2m3,5f to 2m7f and make a tidy profit. More specifically : 37 winners from 215 (17.2% SR) have generated level stakes profit of 80.1pts (+37.3% ROI) from a simple blind "bet and forget" approach.

And of those 215 runners, those reappearing after a rest of just 11 to 20 days are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 43.9pts (+102% ROI).

And now onto his record here at Stratford, which is more than decent in that same 2016 to 2018 timeframe, but he simply doesn't send many here! That said, those that have come have won 7 of 24 (29.2% SR) for 38.5pts (+160.5% ROI) profit, so they're more than worth a second glance, especially as...

  • hurdlers are 4/16 (25%) for 18pts (+112.7%)
  • Class 4 runners are 4/14 (28.6%) for 27.8pts (+198.9%)
  • using a claiming jockey = 4/12 (33.3%) for 31.34pts (+261.2%)
  • in the June to September summer jumps period : 5/9 (55.6%) for 46.4pts (+515.3%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 7/2 : 4/6 966.6%) for 8.5pts (+141.7%)
  • those last seen 10-25 days ago are 3/5 (60%) for 24.71pts (+494.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 2/4 (50%) for 3.15pts (+78.75%)
  • those beaten by 2 lengths or less LTO are 2/2 (100%) for 5.15pts (+257.5%)
  • and Harry Stock has ridden one winner from two for 2.33pts profit...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOGwhich was available from at least a half dozen firms at 5.30pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th June 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.45 Ayr : Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1 (Made all, driven when challenged from over 1f out, held on gamely to win by a shorthead)

We now press on with Tuesday's...

2.55 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

I See You Well @ 5/1 BOG

A 13-runner, Class 4 Flat  Handicap Chase  for 5yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground worth £7018 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner of a similar Class 4 handicap chase over just half a furlong shorter 14 days ago on his first crack at a non-novice Handicap Chase. Jockey Daniel Sansom retains the ride from that day and is already 2 from 3 on this horse.

Trainer Seamus Mullins' horses are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) over the last 30 days, whilst since the start of 2016, his LTO winners are 12 from 64 (18.75% SR) for 21.05pts (+32.9% ROI). Both of these details are useful pointers, but this horse became of real interest to me when he was flagged up as a qualifier of one my (many) stored micro-systems, namely...

...2013-18 / UK Class 3-4 Handicap Chases / shorter than 3.5 miles / going contains the word "good" : males who won a Hcp Chase LTO 4-20 days earlier are 216/823 (26.3% SR) for 124pts (+15.1% ROI), including...

  • at odds of 6/4 to 10/1 : 158/654 (24.2%) for 157.7pts (+24.1%)
  • 1-2 previous hcp chase wins : 162/545 (29.7%) for 119.4pts (+21.9%)
  • 6-15 days since LTO win : 144/483 (29.8%) for 115.7pts (+23.9%)
  • 1-5 previous hcp chase runs : 109/379 (28.8%) for 55.2pts (+14.6%)
  • and in 2018 alone : 13/47 (27.7%) for 13.8pts (+29.3%)

...from which, those with 1-2 previous hcp chase wins from 1-5 previous hcp chase runs priced at 6/4 to 10/1 running 6 to 15 days after the LTO win are 51/154 (33.1% SR) for 109.6pts (+71.2% ROI) with 2018 showing 4 winners from 7 (57.1%) for 18.9pts (+269.7%) profit.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on I See You Well @ 5/1 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.10pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th September 2017

Friday's Result :

3.15 Ascot : Fire Brigade @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 15/8 : Held up in last pair in touch, switched towards stands side rail and headway under pressure inside final 2f, went 2nd when ridden over 1f out, stayed on to press winner inside final furlong, just held by a neck...

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Astrum @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 7yr old looked like returning to something approaching his best form when staying on well at Hexham last time out.

He finished as a runner-up over 2m 0.5f on that occasion, just four days ago and with him seeming to have plenty left in the tank, the extra 2.5f today might just be the key to a first win since landing a course and distance success here in April, carrying 3lbs more than today.

Stat-wise, trainer Phil Middleton + handicap hurdlers + odds of 9/4 to 11/1 = 20/106 (18.9% SR) for 36pts (+33.9% ROI) since the start of 2011 and these runners include...

  • at trips of 2m to 2m 6.5f : 18/87 (20.7%) for 44.9pts (+51.6%)
  • on Good ground : 13/49 (26.5%) for 46pts (+93.9%)
  • 2-10 days since last run : 7/28 (25%) for 15.2pts (+54.4%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/27 (22.2%) for 21pts (+77.9%)
  • ridden by a 3lb claimer : 3/15 (20%) for 6.45pts (+43%)
  • and here at Stratford : 5/12 (41.7%) for 24.6pts (+205.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Astrum @ 7/2 BOG, which was widely available at 7.25pm on Friday, so the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th July 2017

Monday's Result :

2.00 Pontefract : Boundsy @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 In touch on inside headway over 1f out, ridden to challenge and every chance inside final furlong, kept on, but beaten by a neck.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.20 Stratford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

No Such Number4/1 BOG

Why?

This 9yr old gelding has won his last four contests, all under today's jockey Dale Irving, all over fences going left handed on good ground wearing a tongue tie and cheek pieces, so despite another rise in the weights, conditions are well suited for him.

Male handicappers aged 5 to 10 running off a mark of 100 to 125 who won a novice chase last time out in the previous 45 days are 143/588 (24.3% SR) for 98.2pts (+16.7% ROI), including...

  • those rated (OR) 109-121 are 85/325 (26.2%) for 87.4pts (+26.9%)
  • over trips of 2.5m to 3m : 69/311 (22.2%) for 63.9pts (+20.5%)
  • those who last ran 6 to 20 days earlier : 82/277 (29.6%) for 70.1pts (+25.3%)
  • on Good ground : 55/210 (26.2%) for 60.6pts (+28.9%)
  • in the May-July period : 43/134 (32.1%) for 91.6pts (+68.4%)
  • and here at Stratford : 7/19 (36.8%) for 24.9pts (+131.2%)

And in addition to the above, since the start of 2013, trainer Maurice Barnes' handicappers who won LTO are 13/50 (26% SR) for 52.8pts (+105.6% ROI), from which...

  • chasers are 10/32 (31.3%) for 54.3pts (+169.8%)
  • 8-11 yr olds are 9/30 (30%) for 57.7pts (+192.3%)
  • those last seen 11-20 days ago are 9/26 (34.6%) for 36pts (+138.5%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 4/1 : 8/17 (47.1%) for 11pts (+64.5%)
  • and those ridden by Dale Irving are 3/4 (75%) for 106.3pts (+265.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on No Such Number @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.20 Stratford...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!