Tag Archives: Southwell

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2013

Stat of the Day : 1/5/13

Stat of the Day : 1/5/13

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2013

No joy for the Turner/Bell combination yesterday as both Sunningdale Rose (3rd of 5) and our selection George Cinq were well beaten. Hayley seemed like she was producing George Cinq at just the right time. The 3/1 shot had been kept covered up and when she pulled him out two furlongs from home, I was just waiting for the burst to the line. Hayley pressed the button and there was little response to be honest and a 2.75 length defeat was the outcome, back in 4th place.

We're off to Nottinghamshire today for a Class 5 Handicap Hurdle over two miles, four and a half furlongs, where the going is expected to be good for the ten runners contesting the...

5.30 Southwell:

Today we turn to another familiar SotD name, Charlie Longsdon, as I noticed last night that he has a very good record in recent years with horses making their first run for his yard. Sometimes, a horse needs a change of scenery / tactics to get the best out of them and certain trainers are more adept than others at resurrecting a horse's form.

Mr Longsdon is one such trainer, having secured 32 winners from 140 yard debutants since the start of 2011. This 22.9% strike rate over the last 28 months has yielded a level stakes profit of 149.21pts, a return on investment of over 106.5%: a nice chunk of change indeed.

Our selection today, Brass Monkey, is a lightly-raced 6 yr old gelding whose previous form suggests that he'll enjoy the good ground underfoot, as he has really struggled in softer conditions. He won a bumper here at Southwell for Sarah Humphrey almost a year ago (15th May 2012) on his second attempt, but has struggled over hurdles in three races since then in conditions described as soft (twice) and heavy, where he clearly didn't get the ground, but did complete the races to gain today's handicap mark of 88.

Today is Brass Monkey's handicap debut and he'll also be assisted by the booking of the best jockey to have ridden him so far (Richard Johnson), this addition plus the switch to the new yard and their record with debutants allied to the horse's previous course victory make me confident of a good show today and I'm happy to place my shilling on Brass Monkey at 7/2 BOG.

That price is quite wildly available, so for your choice of bookmaker, simply...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.30 Southwell.

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 13/03/13

Stat of the Day: 13/03/13

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2013

Hab Reeh was easy to back yesterday, as he drifted out from our early 7/1 to an SP of 9/1. As hoped, Amy Ryan kept him involved fairly close to the action, but was run out of it in the sprint to the line. He did actually run pretty well and despite dead heating for 6th place, he was only 3 lengths off the winner.

Still giving Cheltenham a wide berth, unless you want SotD to pick Sprinter Sacre, we're off to Nottinghamshire for some Fibresand action for the heady heights of a Class 5 maiden. We're expecting ten runners to take to the stalls for the seven furlong trip in the...

5.05 Southwell

Relatively new trainer James Tate has had a remarkable start to his new career, especially here at Southwell. His first race here was only as far back as December 2011 when Dark Falcon was returned a 3/1 winner. In total James has now saddled up 6 winners here from just 17 attempts, giving a strike rate of some 35.3% and level stakes profits of 12.83pts (75.5% ROI) at SP. Those who like to back in the place market were rewarded with a 70.6% success rate.

Of those 17 races, five of them were maidens like today's race and James' record in Southwell maidens reads an impressive 12711, three wins and a place from five for level stakes win profits of 3.83 pts (76.6% ROI in keeping with his overall record here).

So, yes, you've probably guessed that James Tate has one runner today and that she goes in a Southwell maiden. Well, you'd be right to think that, as today's selection is the three-year old bay filly Gebayl.

Gebayl is making her seventh start today and more importantly, her second visit to Southwell, where I believe previous form is vital. Southwell's surface is very different to polytracks and represents a different challenge to the general A/W conundrum.

She was edged out by just a nose on her last visit here, but had run well enough to put some eleven lengths between herself and the third placed horse over today's course and distance. She was wearing cheekpieces that day and they are reapplied today.

She didn't seem to handle the Lingfield polytrack as well last time out and didn't really seem to suit the one mile trip that day, so today's reversion to the Fibresand and a trip one furlong shorter should help her go well once more.

The big danger today is the likely odds-on favourite Fraserburgh, but it has to be seen whether that one will take to the surface as readily as Gebayl did on debut here.

The likelihood of an odds-on favourite means we'll get a little (but not a lot!) more bang for our buck today and the call is a 1pt win bet on Gebayl at 100/30 BOG with BetFred (Sky Bet are going 7/2 non-BOG), but I recommend that you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.05 Southwell

Stat of the Day, 7th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 07/03/13

Stat of the Day: 07/03/13

Stat of the Day, 7th March 2013

It was pretty much a no-show from D'Gigi yesterday as she came home last of the six finishers in an eight-runner race. She was held up during the race, made a mistake at the 9th hurdle and then folded tamely to end up around 95 lengths off the winner, 74 lengths off a place and still over 40 lengths away from any other horse!

Today we're returning to the Nottinghamshire Fibresand for a Class 5 Handicap over seven furlongs for the ten runners in the...

4.30 Southwell

SotD has a bit of a deja vu feeling to it today, as we turn the clock back a little to look at a course & distance specialist.

Back on the 10th February, I put Flying Pickets up for consideration, based on a 5/15 (+16.33pts) record here at Southwell and 5/8 record over course and distance.

Flying Pickets was the runner-up that day, finishing strongly despite having to do too much to get on terms. He'd encountered plenty of traffic that day and didn't quite catch the leader, but was gaining with every stride.

He was then turned straight back out two days later and won over this same C&D and since then he's only raced once (7 days later), when he finished 4th over C&D, but he had stepped up to Class 4 racing for that one. This brought his overall record over C&D to 21112141214: 6 wins and 3 places from 11 attempts and never out of the first four home.

Backing Flying Pickets blindly over 7 furlongs here would have given you 31.13pts (+283%) profit at SP and 46.05pts at Betfair SP (+418%), whilst E/W backers would have benefited on nine occasions to the tune of 40.6pts (+193%)

It must however be noted that all his wins here have been in non-handicap company and he'll find this a little tougher than usual, but he did beat Alpha Tauri and Rio Cobolo over track and trip in November and when I put him up last time he finished just behind Bitaphon and they look closely matched on today's terms, so if he can avoid the traffic a bit better today, there's no reason why he can't go close at a decent price.

The step back into handicap company and his record in those events is reflected in the prices available. There's not much liquidity in the exchange markets yet, but odds of around 11.5 are available. The conventional bookies are generally offering 9/1 BOG, so the "official" SotD line is 0.5pts on Flying Pickets at 9/1 E/W BOG. You can take your pick of the bookies and to do so, simply...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.30 Southwell

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 10/02/13

Stat of the Day: 10/02/13

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2013

With just two fences to jump, Anay Turge looked to have every chance yesterday, but soon faded very quickly and that unfortunately means another zero in the column for SotD.

Today we're returning to the Nottinghamshire Fibresand for their last race on the card. This is a Class 5 Handicap over seven furlongs for the seven runners in the...

4.50 Southwell

It's a course specialist for SotD today, or more precisely a course & distance specialist.

Flying Pickets has had a reasonable  career to date, this 4yr old has already won five A/W races from twenty-four attempts: a decent enough 20.8% strike rate producing a very healthy 16.33pts profit (68% POI), but all five of those wins have come from fifteen runs here at Southwell, giving a course strike rate of 33.33%.

A horse with a 1 in 3 strike rate at any course is more than good enough for consideration for SotD, but on digging sown further, I was very impressed to see that all five wins have been at today's 7f trip where his overall C&D record reads 21112141: a 62.5% win record for 25.33pts profit (+317%)

Flying Pickets really does save his best form for this trip at Southwell and is running well again at present. He finished second last Wednesday over a mile, going down by just a length by a horse that outstayed him, so the drop back to his favoured trip will definitely be of benefit.

And despite this looking like one of the shortest ever SotD blogs, there's not really much more for me to add. He loves the track, he loves the distance and he's in good nick. All I need him to do now, is win! ūüėÄ

This race is, however, admittedly tougher than his previous victories and this is reflected in the prices available. 6.60 was available with betfair early this morning, but the best BOG price available was 5/1, so the "official" SotD line is 1pt on Flying Pickets at 5/1 BOG, but I always advise you to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.50 Southwell

 

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Stat of the Day, 5th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 05/02/13

Stat of the Day: 05/02/13

Stat of the Day, 5th February 2013

No excuses yesterday, as Luccombe Chine was nothing short of disappointing. She never got involved in the race, looked fidgety and unsettled from the off and didn't see out the trip. It's not often that John Quinn has a bad day at Doncaster, but yesterday wasn't great. Even Countrywide Flame's runner-up place in the preceding race was down to the distressing loss of another top quality horse.

Sedgefield has belatedly yet expectedly fallen foul of the latest batch of snow and with conditions looking grim (and worsening) at Market Rasen, we're taking refuge on the Nottinghamshire Fibresand for a nine-runner, six furlong, Class 4 handicap aka the...

3.40 Southwell

Southwell racecourse makes a welcome return to the UK racing scene after an unfortunate absence of eleven weeks and it would seem almost churlish not to take the SotD roadshow there today. And our underlying stat is a little more left field than usual, as opposed to the usual trainer angles we explore.

Southwell's Fibresand surface is reckoned to be the closest approximation to the American tracks and looking back through the records, it seems that young USA-bred sprinters do really rather well here at this time of year.

The American-bred male sprinters (ie 5 to 7 furlongs) aged between 3 and 5 yrs old have won 12 out of 32 times here in February races since January 2010: an impressive 37.5% strike rate generating excellent profits of 39.8pts at SP (+124.4% return), whilst E/W backers have benefited to the tune of 48.7pts profit (76.1%), courtesy of 19 of those 32 runners making the frame.

These figures are further improved by eliminating any runners priced above 16/1, giving us a final analysis of 12/26 (46.15% SR) for 45.8pts profit (+176.2%) and the E/W returns are 19/25 (76%) for 60.7pts (+121.4%)

There is one such horse running today and this is our selection: Mazovian.

Mazovian loves running here at Southwell and has so far secured four victories from twenty-five Southwell outings. This 16% strike rate, whilst not exceptional, has been good enough to generate a modest 5.5pts profit and a course place strike rate of 44% has given E/W backers increased returns of 13.1pts.

It is, however, over today's trip that he seems happiest, as he has won twice with two placed finishes from nine attempts over course & distance, which has rewarded his followers with 10pts (111.11%) level stakes profit and the 44.44% place strike rate has earned E/W backers a4.5pts in the process (80.56%).

These are Mazovian's preferred conditions and he's on a handy enough mark, running off 69, just as he did when winning a handicap over course & distance back in July. He has put in a couple of decent efforts recently on the Wolverhampton polytrack, plus a third-placed finish on soft ground at Leicester showed that today's slower than standard ground shouldn't be too much of a worry.

The race looks an open affair and based on the stats available, I'd prefer the safer E/W option.  The horse has already attracted some support this morning, having opened at 16/1 with BetVictor. The best available now is 10/1 non-BOG with SportingBet, but my call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Mazovian at 9/1 BOG with Betfred (as of 11.20am), but you really should...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.40 Southwell

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2012

Stat of the Day 14/11

Stat of the Day 14/11

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2012

OK, so I've finally shaken off my cold, it's high time we got SotD off the cold list. Dizzy River never really got involved yesterday and despite our 7/2 recommended price constricting by some 40% down to 85/40 favouritism, he never justified those odds and eventually came home in 3rd place, some 12 lengths off the pace.

So, it's a bit of a "back so soon?" day today, as SotD revisits Monday's track, but we're on the Fibresand as opposed to the turf for this one: a 14-runner 1-mile Handicap in the...

2.50 Southwell

Here at SotD, I look for certain trainers at certain tracks as a starting point and today is no exception, because as soon as I know there's A/W racing at Southwell, I'm quick to see if James Tate has sent any of his horses there. James' record at this Nottinghamshire venue is particularly good and pretty much speaks for itself.

On December 22nd 2011, Dark Falcon was James' first runner at the track and after winning at 3/1 that day, the trainer hasn't looked back since. His overall record here reads 127118171351, that's 6 winners and 2 places from 12 outings, generating fantastic level stakes profits of 18pts. Therefore, all of his runners at the venue merit a second glance.

James has just one runner at the track today: Dubawi Island.

Dubawi Island is contesting only his 4th A/W race today having won a maiden over course & distance  here in August and also finishing in the frame on two outings at Kempton. He hasn't fared nearly as well on turf, but an A/W record of 213 coupled with a return to Southwell could see him go close once again. His previous outing was, as I said, a C&D victory, but that doesn't tell the full story. He pretty much made all that day and was still going away at the finish despite being 7 lengths clear. The runner-up that day was Mark Johnston's Centrifugal, who went on to win his next two races quite comfortably.

Martin Dwyer takes the ride today, as he did on that C&D win back in August.

All things considered ie the trainer's record here and the horse's own previous win here and his overall A/W form and the fact that the usual jockey is on board, I think we've a very good chance of making a profit today.

Having checked the markets at 10.20am, I was pleasantly surprised to see Stan James offering 10/1 BOG, so unless I've got this one horribly wrong, there seems to be a very good E/W opportunity for us to finally kick-start November into life. So the play today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Dubawi Island at 10/1 BOG, but you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.50 Southwell

Stat of the Day, 12th November 2012

Stat of the Day 12/11

Stat of the Day 12/11

Stat of the Day, 12th November 2012

No play yesterday, as both of Anthony Honeyball's runners were withdrawn in quick succession yesterday morning. And so, on to my least favourite racing day of the week: Monday's fayre is invariably poor and today doesn't look great either. Limerick has been abandoned, Carlisle's track is pretty boggy and the average field size is just 6 runners. In fact, the only race with 8 runners is the bumper, so we're steering clear of this track today. With small fields, we have no leeway for an E/W bet and there's also less chance of beating the market in the manner we've been accustomed to.

With all that in mind, we head off to the village of Rolleston in Nottinghamshire for a Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles and 4.5 furlongs and the going is said to be Good (quite a rarity at present!). We're expecting a total of 11 runners to jump off in the...

2.15 Southwell

I decided to look for a decent E/W bet this morning, based on the lack of quality/small choice of races presented to me and I was really left with just 4 races to consider. On closer inspection of the Southwell declarations, I noticed that Mrs Lawney Hill has had a reasonable amount of success at getting her horses placed here. Her career record at Southwell is 6 wins and 6 places from 27 attempts, yet in the last two years alone her place strike rate has risen to an excellent 50%, with 8 of 16 making the frame in that period.

Mrs Hill has just the one runner today: Brough Academy.

Brough Academy is a lightly raced 6yr old who has never finished outside of the first four in any of  his six races to date. He contested 3 bumpers in July/August last year, followed by 2011/12 winter campaign of just three hurdle events. His full record currently reads 231214, which offers a small profit at level stakes and a place strike rate of 83%. In fact he would probably have finished second last time out to maintain a 100% record, had he not been quite badly hampered to a virtual standstill, yet regained his composure to take 4th place, just 2.5 lengths behind the eventual runner-up.

His last two contests were both at Fontwell where he was partnered by David Bass, who takes the ride again today. David is no stranger to Southwell either, as he also possesses a decent record around this track, where he has a win strike rate of just under 30% and a place strike rate of some 65%.  Today will actually be the 10th time that David has ridden one of Mrs Hill's horses at Southwell, having won two of the previous nine with a further three place finishes.

So, bearing in mind the place records of the trainer and the jockey here at the track and the general consistency of the horse itself, an E/W bet seems the most prudent if we can achieve a reasonable price.

Having checked the markets at 9.55am, 12/1 BOG was available with Bet365 , Stan James and BetVictor, so there should be little problems for you to get the same as I'm taking, as my play today is 0.5pts E/W on Brough Academy at 12/1 BOG, but you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.15 Southwell

Stat of the Day, 4th October 2012

Stat of the Day 04/10

Stat of the Day 04/10

Stat of the Day, 4th October 2012

Another case of close, but no cigar yesterday. Whether Spensley's run for the line was timed slightly too late or whether he just didn't have enough pick-up speed when it matters is debatable, of course. Perhaps it was a combination of the two? As it happens, we were beaten by less than length, finishing strongly to take 3rd place at 5/1, just a half point less than the advised bet.

I know some of you back all these for a place and those doing so will have made a small profit at 2.2 for the place, but for SotD records it's another loss in what is proving to be a frustrating start to a notoriously difficult month.

We're going to give the All-Weather racing another try today, but this time it's the Nottinghamshire fibresand which will play host to us, as we seek to get off the cold list via a tight-looking, 13-runner, 1 mile handicap (nobody said it was easy!) aka the...

5.30 Southwell

With some tracks being far busier than others, particularly the A/W courses, certain names will reappear in SotD at fairly regular intervals. We make no apologies for revisiting certain trainers, providing their results are still holding up. So, today's trainer in focus is another one fairly well known to Geegeez, just as James Fanshawe was yesterday.

Since he sent his first runner out onto the Southwell fibresand on the 22nd December last year, James Tate has been the man in form at this track. Dark Falcon was a 3/1 winner that day and Mr Tate hasn't really had many problems here since.

Including that first race, James has sent just 9 runners to the track, but he seems to be taking a very selective approach and picking the right horses to run here, for those 9 runners have returned the following results: 127118171 : a 55.6% strike rate and a 66.7% place strike rate. Backing each of these runners at £10 level stakes would have made you £108.33 profit at SP (120% of stakes) and £133.09 at Betfair SP (+148%)

Two of those nine races were contested by James' sole runner today: Saaboog.

Saaboog is a course and distance winner, so we know she gets the surface and the trip. Despite finishing just 7th on her last outing here, she was far from disgraced as five of the horses in front of her that day have gone on to win more races and all six of them have placed on more than one occasion since, most notably the likes of  Henry Allingham & Position amongst others.

She looks to have a decent enough chance back on the fibresand here today and I'd expect her to at least make the frame and given that Bet365, Betfred and Stan James  are all offering an attractive-looking 8/1 BOG, I'm playing it as a 0.5pt E/W bet (1/4 odds for a place), but I suggest that you...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.30 Southwell.

Stat of the Day, 28th August 2012

Stat of the Day: 28/8

Stat of the Day: 28/8

Stat of the Day, 28th August 2012

SotD's pick yesterday was very disappointing indeed. The race was run at a blistering pace and Cadeaux Pearl was slow away from the stalls, slow during the race and finished slowly too! Our mount eventually trailed home last of all twelve runners and only ever had one horse behind him at any point in the race. I hold my hands up on this one: it really was a poor selection. Scott Dixon runs Sacrosanctus in the 2.50 at Epsom today and it should perform better for him, but I don't like to revisit the scene of a crime and as such, I'll look elsewhere. So, we/I need a winner and I'm hoping to make some money on the beach this evening with a course specialist...

6.20 Southwell

This looks a competitive Class 4 handicap and you could make a case for several of the eight runners scheduled to take part in this 1m6f race, but I think I've got a slight edge with today's selection: Shifting Gold.

Shifting Gold is somewhat of a Southwell specialist with a record of 4 wins and 6 places from just 16 races, whilst his record over today's trip reads 313211, ideal for an E/W bet if we can get a decent price. Our selection is trained by Kevin Ryan, who also has a good record with his other horses here at Southwell with a win strike rate of 31% (+43pts @ SP) and a place strike rate of 50% from a decent sample size of 110 entrants over the last two years. Amy Ryan rides many of these horses for Kevin, helping herself to 22 placed finished from 51 attempts and she takes the ride once again today. She has actually ridden Shifting Gold eleven times at this track, recording three wins and six other places from those races, so she obviously knows how to get a tune out of this one.

One other interesting aside is that Shifting Gold is out of Night Shift whose offspring boast a 54% place strike rate here at Southwell. The place strike rate stats for horse, jockey, trainer and sire allied to the current 10/1 BOG on offer from BoyleSports makes this an attractive E/W bet for me, but you can always wait and then...

Click here for the latest odds for the 6.20 Southwell.

Stat of the Day, 19th August 2012

Stat of the day 19/08

Stat of the day 19/08

Stat of the Day, 19th August 2012

Kian's Delight came home comfortably in the end yesterday, despite not looking totally happy or fluent over the hurdles. Those of us BOGglers (early prices!) were rewarded with an extra point too, as our advised 5/1 was trimmed to 4/1 by the off and we were ultimately the beneficiaries of a 3 lengths victory.

Today's racing is typical of most Sundays and is, in my opinion, decidedly average at best. However, I think I may well have found something of interest in a Class 5 Claiming Hurdle over 3miles 110 yards. We're expecting nine runners to go to post, which opens the door for an each way bet today and the going is expected to be good for the...

4.30 Southwell

Our trainer in focus today is Andrew Crook whose record over the last two years at Southwell belies his overall career stats. It wouldn't be too unfair to suggest that Mr Crook isn't ever going to be one of the UK's top jumps trainers, but having saddled up two winners from nine at Southwell over the past two years is a decent return for him. When you then further consider that seven of those nine runners actually made the frame, our quest for an E/W gamble becomes more of a possibility. Of those nine races, just 6 were over hurdles: yielding both the afore-mentioned winners and three others placed: in fact, just one of the six failed to make the frame.

Andrew sends just one runner out today in the shape of Rory Boy, an unpredictable type, if I'm totally honest with you! This horse has demonstrated on several occasions that he has ability, he has won a hurdle race, a NH flat race and three chases from 2m to 2m 4f on ground varying from firm to good and he also won a AW flat race here at Southwell as recently as May.  However, his unpredictable nature was highlighted when he refused to race last time out at Cartmel four weeks ago.

However, if our jockey today can get him to jump off with his rivals, there's every chance we can land an eachway gamble at a decent price.

The jockey today is Tom Molloy who I expect will make good use of his 3lb allowance today. Tom, himself, has a good record here at Southwell to further boost our hopes of Rory Boy making the frame. Tom has ridden nine times at Southwell in the last two years and has managed to be placed five times, including three winners. Those three winners have brought a level stakes profit of 13pts from the nine races.

As of 0845 this morning, only bet365 had prices up for this race, so I'm taking some of their 16/1 E/W BOG for SotD today, but as always feel free to...

Click here for the latest odds for the 4.30 Southwell.