Tag Archives: Southwell racecourse

Stat of the Day, 20th December 2019

Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Wolverhampton : Elzaam's Dream @ 9/2 3rd at 3/1 (Dwelt, behind, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, nearest finish : basically a slow start, picked up and ran on, but got going a bit too late!)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  A/W Handicap for 3yo= over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly is in really good nick right now, placed in each of her last three outings (all under today's jockey, 5lb claimer, Faye McManoman), including winning her last two starts, firstly over 6f on this track in early November and then again 18 days later/25 days ago over this 7f trip at Chelmsford.

It seems to have taken a while for the penny to drop with this filly, but she's now flying and conditions look ideal today, as from her overall 2 from 13 record, she is...

  • 2/10 on the A/W and 2/10 as a 3 yr old
  • 2/8 over 6/7 furlongs
  • 2/7 at Class 6, 2/7 after 1-4 weeks rest, 2/7 in fields of 12-14 runners and 2/7 going left handed
  • 2/5 under jockey Faye McManoman

...and when all eight of the above are aligned as they are today, she is 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 25.28pts (+1264% ROI) at Betfair SP.

Trainer Charles Smith's LTO winners are 3 from 7 (42.9% SR) for 26.43pts (+377.6% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter in handicaps over the last five years, including 3 from 5 (60%) for 28.43pts (+568.6%) in larger (ie 10-14 runners) fields.

Those LTO stats are clearly from a small sample size, because Charles is hardly prolific with just 14 winners from 271 (5.17% SR) for a loss of 70.87pts (-26.2% ROI) backed blindly over that same 5 yr period, so why/how is he still in business and why have I picked one of his horses?

Well, like most "run of the mill" (no disrespect intended) trainers, Charles has an area/niche where he does far better than his average would suggest and in Charles' case, it seems to be Class 5/6, A/W handicaps here at Southwell over 7-8 furlongs. Such runners win more than twice as often as Charles's average SR and produce a healthy profit from blind backing.

Numerically, we're talking 10 winners from 89 (11.24% SR), so that's 71.4% of all the yard's winners over the last 5 years from just 32.8% of the runners and backing each of them to a £10 stake would have netted £768.10 at an ROI of some 86.3%! A simple further refinement of this angle would be to just back those ridden by a jockey with a weight claim, which eradicates almost half of the 89 bets, but only removes 1 winner!

...as Charles Smith + C5/6 + Southwell A/W hcps + 7-8f + 3-7lb jockey claim = 9 from 45 (20% SR) for 112.85pts (+250.8% ROI) over the last 5 yrs at an A/E of some 2.65...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Betfred at 5.05pm on Thursday, although the latter are non-BOG until raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.40 Kempton : Maazel @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 5/4 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, driven to chase leaders when not clear run over 1f out, unable to challenge, no impression inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock Sound @ 10/3

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 4 yr old gelding makes just his seventh start today, but has won 2 of his previous six, including last time out a month ago over course and distance in another big field (14 ran) hcp, which was his first run in the UK, first run on an artificial surface and also his yard debut for Declan Carroll, whose runners are 4 from 18 (22.2% SR) for 9.5pts (+52.7% ROI) on the A/W over the last 30 days, including 4 from 10 (40%) for 17.5pts (+175%) here at Southwell.

Included amongst that recent run of good form at this venue are the following of relevance today...

  • 4/5 (80%) for 22.5pts (+450%) from males
  • 4/5 (80%) for 22.5pts (+450%) at sub-12/1 odds
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 18.22pts (+227.7%) in handicaps
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 22.22pts (+555.5%) on 13/14 runner contests...

...whilst sub-12/1 male handicappers are 3 from 3 9100% SR) for 23.22pts (+773.9% ROI) in 13/14 runner fields...

And this recent run isn't a flash in the pan either, as Declan's runners have fared well here at Southwell for a number of years now, clocking up 21 wins from 112 (18.75% SR) in handicaps since the start of 2016, generating 40.6pts profit at a healthy 36.2% return, including of note here...

  • 21/105 (20%) for 47.6pts (+45.3%) at trips of 5f to 1m
  • 19/100 (19%) for 39.6pts (+39.6%) in fields of 8-14 runners
  • 18/64 (28.1%) for 38.9pts (+60.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 17/82 (20.7%) for 41.3pts (+50.4%) at the same trip or dropped 1f from LTO
  • 13/63 (20.6%) for 41.8pts (+66.3%) during the 3 months from November to January...

...whilst if you wanted to secure almost 80% of the original profit from just 37.5% of the original bets, then sub-17/2 runners over 5f to 1m in 8-14 runner contests as the same trip or down 1f from LTO are 13/42 (31% SR) for 32.4pts (+77.7% ROI), with those racing during November & December winning 6 of 18 (33.3%) for 14.94pts (+83%) and this fairly simple approach...

...provides us with...a 1pt win bet on Rock Sound @ 10/3 as was offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.50pm on Wednesday, although they sadly don't go BOG until racedays. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th November 2019

Thursday's pick was...

1.20 Lingfield : Colonel Whitehead @ 9/2 BOG 10th at 11/8 (In touch, pushed along halfway, hit rail entering final 2f, soon weakened)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Queen Of Kalahari @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap over 6f on Fibresand worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Follow a filly in form is how the saying goes, and it is actually one of the less ridiculous racing maxims.

This filly has won her last three, of five, Southwell starts, all over this six-furlong trip. Her full Southwell 6f string reads 2111.

Trainer Les Eyre is also in fine fettle. While his record at Southwell in recent times is clearly enhanced by today's SotD's efforts, he has been hitting the target elsewhere, too. His eight runners in the past month were 51032331. Six of Eyre's runners at Southwell in the past year have won or placed (A/E 2.15, IV 2.99).

Indeed he seems to be a bit of a dab hand with sprinting fillies: since 1st January 2017, he's won 11 of 49 handicaps at six furlongs or shorter (6 more placed) with fillies/mares for a profit at SP of +45.13 (A/E 1.88).

Jockey Lewis Edmunds is Les Eyre's go to rider and, when the pair have teamed up in the past year, they've won 9/39 (23.08%) for +20.63 (A/E 2.24, IV 2.22).

Queen Of Kalahari is on a course and distance four-timer and, back to her beloved fibresand after a fair foray on the straight track at Newcastle last time, looks very well suited to conditions for in-form connections...

...all pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Queen Of Kalahari @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th November 2019

Thursday's pick was...

12.30 Sedgefield : Christmas in USA @ 9/2 WON at 9/4 (Raced keenly, led before 2nd, not fluent next, went clear before 4 out until next, went clear again before last, winning readily by 8 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oriental Cross @ 6/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 6-runner (was 9!), Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2mf on Soft ground worth £3,769 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare is one from two at today's trip and is trained by Tim Vaughan, who has been profitable to follow blindly here at Southwell over recent years. In fact since the start of 2015, his runners are 13 from 95 (13.7% SR) here, generating 7.6pts profit at an ROI of 8%, which is decent enough without filtering out any you wouldn't normally fancy.

If you did start to filter (as I always do!), you could consider the following ten angles, which are all logical, profitable, relevant and applicable today...

  • 11/64 (17.2%) for 26.4pts (+41.3%) in handicaps (and you could stop here if you wanted!)
  • 11/39 (28.2%) for 34.7pts (+89%) at ISP odds of 7/4 to 8/1
  • 9/60 (15%) for 16.3pts (+27.2%) from 5-7 yr olds
  • 9/56 (16.1%) for 19.8pts (+35.4%) over hurdles
  • 8/43 (18.6%) for 16.8pts (+39.2%) at Class 4
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 30.2pts (+79.5%) in handicap hurdle contests
  • 8/32 (25%) for 37.6pts (+117.5%) after 22-56 days off track
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 24.1pts (+89.3%) over this 2mf course and distance
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 29.5pts (+196.7%) in 6-runner races
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.9pts (+143.3%) with 1 previous distance win...

...whilst Class 3/4 hcp hurdlers at 7/4 to 8/1 are 4/8 (50% SR) for 25.43pts (+317.9% ROI), including two from three over this 2mf course and distance...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Oriental Cross @ 6/1 non-BOG until raceday as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

6.10 Kempton : Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Held up towards rear, closer on outside 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, strong run to lead well inside final furlong, soon clear to win by 1.25 lengths)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Southwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Groupie @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Classified Stakes for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, after a long awaited return to form, I was hoping for some nice data-laden selection to sweep us towards a third successive winner, but there were very few horses ticking the stats/price/likelihood of winning axis I use to finalise a pick, so here we've one I expect to go well which is priced attractively, but doesn't have the big blockbuster standout stat.

Two out of three isn't a disaster and there are enough statistical snippets/nuggets to back up the choice, starting with...

...trainer Tom Tate has sent just four runners to this venue this year, but with two winners and a further placer producing 17.8pts profit at an ROI of 445%, it's worth looking out for the rare visitor. Of those four runs, jockey Andrew Mullen is 1 from 2 and Class 6 runners are also 1 from 2.

Next up is a quick look at the Trainer/Jockey combo, as since the start of 2017, the Tate/Mullen alliance is 13 from 83 (15.7% SR) for 53.5pts (+64.5% ROI), with a 10/36 (27.8% SR) record on the A/W yielding 72.9pts (+202.6%) including 3 winners from 9 (33.3%) for 22.4pts (+249%) at Class 6 n the A/W.

And I'll wrap today's piece up by telling you that in 2019 so far, top-rated (OR) runners in non-handicap contests are 18 from 93 (19.4% SR) for 233.8pts (+251.3% ROI) here at Southwell, including of note/relevance today...

  • 15/79 (19%) for 240.7pts (+304.7%) over trips up to a mile
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 199.3pts (+766.5%) from female runners
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 206.3pts (+1085.8%) from females over 5 to 8 furlongs
  • 4/10 (40%) for 174pts (+1740%) at Class 6
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 175.2pts (+2502.6%) at Class 6 up to a mile
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 178.4pts (+8920%) from Class 6 females over 5f-1m

The above ROI figures are skewed by a 66/1 winner that paid out at 170.00 at Betfair SP, but that doesn't invalidate the strike rates, but if you just considered those of the 93 top-rated runners who were sent off shorter than 5/1, you'd have 3 winners from 6 (50% SR) and 5.91pts (+93.5% ROI) profit...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Groupie @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th October 2019

Monday's pick was...

5.30 Kempton : Bryn Du @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/8 (Raced wide close up, pushed along 2f out, had every chance, but one paced in final furlong, beaten by less than a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cold Harbour @ 6/1

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Fibresand worth £3429 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, there's actually plenty of data to suggest a run better than the odds quoted, so here's just some of the facts...

The horse...

...Cold Harbour is a 4yr old gelding with 4 wins from 10 starts in A/W handicaps including of relevance today...

  • 4 from 9 this year, 4 from 8 going left handed and 4 from 8 on standard going
  • 3/8 as non-fav, 3/4 here at Southwell and 2/6 under jockey Kieran O'Neill
  • 2/3 at 1m4f, 2/3 over C&D and 2/2 after less than a fortnight's rest
  • 2/2 in fields of 8-10 runners and 1/2 in October.

His sire...

...is North Light, whose progeny are 17 from 68 (25% SR) for 50.7pts (+74.6% ROI) when backed blindly on the All-Weather, including...

  • 12/35 (34.3%) for 46.9pts (+134.1%) in fields of 5 to 11
  • 10/37 (27%) for 57.2pts (+154.6%) since 2016
  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 37.9pts (+105.2%) after a break of 6-30 days
  • 9/38 (23.7%) for 47.3pts (+124.6%) in handicaps
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 22.4pts (+131.6%) over 11/12 furlongs
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 35.6pts (+131.9%) from September to January...

...whilst since 2016 in fields of 5-11 runners, handicappers rested for 6-30 days are 5 from 7 (71.4% SR) for 43.37pts (+619.6% ROI), including 2 from 2 at 11/12 furlongs and 1/1 at todays 1.5 mile trip.

The jockey...

...Kieran O'Neill is taking a 23rd ride of the year for trainer Robyn Brisland with 6 wins from the previous 22 (27.3% SR) yielding 27.62pts (+125.6% ROI) profits, all on the All-Weather, from which the partnership is...

  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 36.62pts (+281.7%) at odds of 12/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 26pts (+200%) on male runners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 31.31pts (+313.1%) with 4 yr olds
  • 2/5 (40%) for 12.68pts (+253.7%) here at Southwell
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 12.68pts (+253.7%) this month...

...with 4yr old males sent off at 12/1 and shorter winning 3 of 7 (42.9% SR) for 26.85pts (+383.5% ROI), including 1 from 2 this month and 1 from 1 here at Southwell.

And finally(!) for today, the trainer...

...Robyn Brisland is 8 from 47 (17% SR) for 171.9pts (+365.7% ROI) on this track this year, with the following of particular note today...

  • 8/42 (19%) for 176.9pts (+421.2%) on Standard going
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 190.9pts (+681.6%) with those returning from breaks of 6-30 days
  • 7/31 (22.6%) for 169.1pts (+545.3%) with those beaten by 3-30 lengths LTO
  • 7/20 (35%) for 188pts (+940%) with 4 yr olds
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 134.8pts (+421.1%) in handicaps
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.6pts (+220.2%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 15.25pts (+190.7%) over trips of 11/12 furlongs
  • and 2/9 (22.2%) for 8.68pts (+96.5%) this month alone...

...from which, 4yr old handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter on Standard going, 6-30 days after a defeat by 3-30 lengths LTO are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 26.71pts (+667.9% ROI) and these include 3/3 over 11/12f, 2/2 this month, 2/2 over 1m4f and 1 from over course and distance this month via Cold Harbour 25 days ago...

...all of which hopefully corroborates...a 1pt win bet on Cold Harbour @ 6/1 as was offered by at least a handful of firms at 5.00pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st October 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.05 Wolverhampton : Pushaq @ 10/1 BOG 6th at 9/1 (Tracked leader, effort over 2f out, lost place approaching final furlong)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

The specialist all weather track at Southwell is a 'marmite' affair, horses usually struggling on it with only a handful finding it ideal.

Atalanta Queen is in the latter category: her six career starts at the Rolleston venue have ended 112931 (3/6, 50%, +67 pts!), and over this mile range she's 131. Her most recent spin here was a course, distance, and class win eleven days ago.

Trainer Robyn Brisland has an excellent track record. In the past year, he's 8/45 (5 further places, +82.38, A/E 2.23). That may not be surprising considering he trains on the course.

And when Brisland calls for Kieran O'Neill it often ends well. In the past year, they've teamed up 29 times, for seven wins (24.14%) and four further placings. That's returned a 19.38 unit profit (A/E 2.46). At this course, the form string reads 33112.

In a race which looks heavy with quantity over quality, it's enough to give us...

a 1pt win bet on Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Skybet, Betfair, Victor and Paddy at 6pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.40 Ascot : Defoe @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up in 6th on outside, pushed along 3f out, switched left and headway towards outside over 2f out, 2nd inside final 2f, went right and led over 1f out, ridden and stayed on well)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Graceland @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1mf on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare has three wins and a place from her five efforts over hurdles this year and comes here on a hat-trick since a wind op was followed by comfortable made all wins at Cartmel 30 days ago and then again at Stratford last time out on Tuesday of last week (I had a few quid on her that day too, so she owes me nothing).

Both wins were comfortable affairs leading from the front, both were at Class 3, both under jockey Brian Hughes and she was wearing a hood on both occasions. Brian and the hood are in situ once again, but she now drops in class and carries a top weight of 12-3 here today. Some might say the weight could be an issue, but I'm not in that camp, as I'll explain shortly.

Brian Hughes is in decent touch right now, winning 13 of 58 (22.4% SR) for 14.8pts (+25.5% ROI) in the past 30 days, whilst trainer Donald McCain has also had a good time of it recently with his own 30-day record standing at 13/51 (25.5% SR) for 25.5pts (+50% ROI) and it's fair to say both the trainer and jockey's recent successes have been fairly co-dependent as the partnership is 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 17.2pts (+81.9% ROI) in that 30-day time frame including 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 16pts (+133.3% ROI) over hurdles.

Now, back to the elephant (or top weight horse) in the room, namely the position of Graceland at the top of the racecard, where you might (or might not) be surprised to read that since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 handicap hurdle contests, horses aged 7-9 yrs old with the clear top OR and weight carried in the race are 23 from 83 (27.7% SR) for 28.4pts (+34.2% ROI) when asked to carry 12 stones or more and these include of relevance today...

  • 22/45 (48.9%) for 58.14pts (+129.2%) at sub-6/1 starting prices
  • 12/22 (54.6%) for 27.52pts (+125.1%) as LTO winners
  • 12/40 (30%) for 16.87pts (+42.2%) from 7 yr olds
  • 12/42 (28.6%) for 21.25pts (+50.6%) from those with an OR of 115-125
  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 20.5pts (+73.4%) had raced in the previous fortnight
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 25.86pts (+84%) on Good ground
  • 7/20 (35%) for 14.99pts (+75%) over trips of 15.5 to 16.5 furlongs
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.46pts (+74.7%) in May/June
  • 3/4 (75%) for 3.54pts (+88.5%) here at Southwell
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%) from female runners

...whilst 7 yr old LTO winners sent off shorter than 6/1 are 6 from 10 (60% SR) for 14.75pts (+147.5% ROI)...

And finally (phew!), I want to touch on the subject of the pace tab on our racecards , as I did on Saturday with Defoe. Matt and I often get asked about the relevance of pace in NH races and whether it's really as important as it is on the Flat. Well, the simple answer is that yes, it can be as important and Graceland was flagged up on one of my saved pace-related angles on the Geegeez Query Tool...

...basically over the last 6 months, 5-9 yr olds carrying 12st to 12st 5lbs in UK Class 4/5 NH handicaps on any ground other than heavy are 14/50 (28% SR) for 7.2pts (+14.4% ROI) when showing a previous average pace score of 4 (ie likes to lead/make all), from which those sent off at odds of 5/4 to 7/1 are 13/35 (37.1%) for 20.63pts (+58.9%).  These are based on Industry SP and can of course be beaten by Betfair SP and/or BOG odds.

And having a pace score of 4 in each of her races this year, I would expect her to attempt to make all and win from the front once again...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Graceland @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2019

Monday's pick was...

4.45 Redcar : Music Seeker @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, some headway on outside under pressure over 2f out, weakened 2f out)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

8.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fly True @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6yr old mare has won three of her last seven outings, including 3 from 5 here at Southwell, culminating in a class, course and distance win LTO under today's jockey 37 days ago.

This means that her A/W handicap record now includes...

  • 4/13 at Class 6
  • 3/10 under jockey Nicky Mackay
  • 3/9 for trainer Ivan Furtado
  • 3/7 here at Southwell
  • 3/7 at 31-60 days off track
  • 2/4 as a 6 yr old
  • 2/2 over 7f
  • 2/2 over course and distance

In addition to her own obvious suitability for the task ahead, trainer Ivan Furtado does well here too, especially in A/W handicaps with runners in the 2/1 to 10/1 bracket, as they are 14 from 67 (20.9% SR) for 40.5pts (+60.5% ROI) since the start of 2016 and with today's race in mind, this includes...

  • 13/54 (24.1%) for 44.7pts (+82.7%) at 6-45 days off track
  • 11/41 (26.8%) for 42.9pts (+104.7%) in fields of 9-14 runners
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 48.1pts (+114.4%) from horses aged 5 and over
  • 9/35 (25.7%) for 35.3pts (+100.1%) at Class 6
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 42.5pts (+202.3%) over this 7f course and distance
  • 7/25 (28%) for 34.7pts (+138.8%) from his female runners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 31.9pts (+199.1%) at 26-45 days off track
  • 3/5 (60%) for 27.46pts (+549.2%) under jockey Nicky Mackay
  • and 3/10 from LTO winners (30%) for 10.03pts (+100.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fly True @ 7/2 BOG which was available from over half a dozen firms at 6.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th May 2019

Monday's pick was...

5.45 Musselburgh : Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/4 (Towards rear, ridden 3f out, not trouble leaders )

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Drone @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 3m on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, I'm running a bit late this morning (I'd an appointment to attend) and this horse crops up in quite a few of my stored micro-systems (some of them fairly similar to each other admittedly), so I'll try to keep this brief, whilst still giving you a good overview of why this race should suit this lightly-raced 8 yr old gelding.

He's trained by Alex Hales (more on him very shortly) and will be ridden by Kielan Woods, he has five top three finishes from just six efforts over hurdles, winning twice including a class, course and distance success here last time out under Kielan twenty days ago, when clear by four lengths despite problems with the saddle slipping.

Now to the data...

1. Alex Hales + Class 4/5 handicap hurdlers at 10/1 and shorter + 2015-19 = 22/100 (22% SR) for 45.6pts (+45.6% ROI)

2. Alex Hales + Southwell handicap hurdles at 10/1 and shorter + 2016-19 = 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 40pts (+333.7% ROI), all at class 4/5, including 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 19.47pts (+249.6%) at Class 4.

3. Since 2011 in UK handicap hurdles, horses who won at the same class, course and distance LTO are 117/450 (26% SR) for 162.5pts (+36.1% ROI), from which...

  • 6-30 days since that win : 90/336 (26.8%) for 125pts (+37%)
  • at Southwell : 7/17 (41.2%) for 16.1pts (+94.8%)
  • and at Southwell + 6-30dslr : 5/12 (41.7%) for 5.82pts (+48.5%)

4. And since the start of 2017 in Class 4 handicap hurdles, males who won by a length or more LTO are 141/522 (27% SR) for 67pts (+12.8% ROI), including...

  • over trips of 2.5m to 3m : 68/229 (29.7%) for 80.4pts (+35.1%)
  • at Southwell : 8/20 (40%) for 19.7pts (+98.5%)
  • and at Southwell over 2.5m to 3m : 7/17 (41.2%) for 17pts (+100%).

You can, of course, dig further into the above data and find plenty of relevant/profitable angles at play today, but I'm satisfied that there's enough there already...

...to support... a 1pt win bet on The Drone @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.35pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!