Tag Archives: Sandown racecourse

Stat of the Day, 6th December 2019

Thursday's pick was...

6.30 Southwell : Rock Sound @ 7/2 2nd at 6/4 (Pressed leader, led narrowly over 4f out, driven and headed 2f out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance inside final furlong, just held by a neck)

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.20 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Johnbb @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on currently Good To Soft ground worth £9,384 to the winner...

Why?...

Just the sixth start for this 5 yr old gelding, but he hasn't been out of the first three home yet, including one win. He was third last time out at Aintree, having faded out of contention late on, but that's excusable as it was (a) his chase debut, but jumped well enough, (b) his comeback from 40 weeks off track and (c) over a trip 4.5 furlongs longer than today.

He should come on for trying the fences for a first time and also for having had a run to clear the pipes. Indeed, trainer Tom Lacey's NH handicappers seem to go well after a recent run, as since the start of 2017, those with just one prior run in the previous 90 days have gone on to win 11 of 38 (29% SR) for 37.6pts (+99% ROI) and whilst there are just 38 such runners, I don't think that their success is pure coincidence, when you consider that the following are applicable today...

  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 41.6pts (+122.4%) from 5-8 yr olds
  • 10/25 (40%) for 27.15pts (+108.6%) at 6/4 to 15/2 odds
  • 9/25 (36%) for 21.6pts (+86.5%) from his only runner at that track that day
  • 9/25 (36%) for 20.55pts (+82.2%) at 21-45 dslr
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 45.4pts (+302.6%) after finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 7/13 (53.8%) for 43.8pts (+336.8%) on Good to Soft / Soft
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 24.7pts (+190.2%) dropping in trip
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 12.3pts (+82%) in November/December
  • 3/5 (60%) for 17.1pts (+342.5%) on Good to Soft
  • 3/5 (60%) for 7.3pts (+146%) in December
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.82pts (+85.2%) were 3rd LTO
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 5.9pts (+59%) at Class 3

Now, I'm not going to combine the above into a composite angle, as I fear it would dilute an already small sample size too much, but I do want to re-visit the third item on that list ie Tom Lacey's only runner at a track, because since the start of 2016, when sending just one out to a track, he is 54/177 (30.5% SR) for 119.7pts (+67.6% ROI) in handicaps contests.

He also sends just one chaser to Exeter today (Kateson in the 1.30), but that's a non-handicap contest, so with today's race in mind, those 177 solo travellers are...

  • 49/128 (38.3%) for 115.7pts (+90.4%) at odds of 5/4 to 8/1
  • 43/136 (31.6%) for 102.8pts (+75.6%) from males
  • 27/72 (37.5%) for 88pts (+122.3%) from 5 yr olds
  • 20/55 (36.4%) for 54pts (+98.2%) in the final quarter of the year
  • 17/53 (32.1%) for 49pts (+92.5%) at Class 3
  • 15/40 (37.5%) for 12.8pts (+32%) from chasers
  • and 9/25 (36%) for 22.05pts (+88.2%) in December...

...whilst 5 yr old males sent off at 5/4 to 8/1 from October to December inclusive are 11 from 17 (64.7% SR) for 32.2pts (+189.6% ROI) including 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 7.93pts (+99.1%) in December...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Johnbb @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG  as was offered by Bet365 (10/3) and a whole host of others at 3/1 (some BOG, most not until morning) at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st July 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

9.00 Perth : Oromo @ 15/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Mid-division, headway after 3 out, chased leaders next, never on terms)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

7.10 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Muraad @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on good (good to soft in places) ground worth £9338 to the winner...

Why?...

A fifth start for a 3 yr old never out of the frame so far (3132) and who was only beaten by a head over this trip at this class in a stronger looking race last time out. That was at Ascot 19 days ago and the runner immediately behind him (1.25 lengths back) has since stepped up to Class 2 and finished as a runner-up in a race worth £28,000 at Ascot on King George day.

Dane O'Neill rides him for the third time today and Dane is in decent nick right now, winning 6 of 22 (27.3% SR) for 21.34pts (+97% ROI) over the past fortnight and has a 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 24.75pts (+275%) record here at Sandown over the last 3 years.

Trainer Owen Burrows is slowly making a name for himself and if you're not aware of him yet, you might be surprised to find out that blindly backing his runners since the start of 2018 has been a profitable venture with 49 winners from 251 (19.5% SR) producing profits of 83.5pts (+33.3% ROI) over this 19 month period. Although this is steady sustained profit, I'd understand why you'd not want to blanket bet a trainer, so here are "just" a dozen profitable ways he has got those 49 winners so far...

  • 46/221 (20.8%) for101.8pts (+46%) at Classes 2-5
  • 36/169 (21.3%) for 80pts (+47.4%) with 3 yr olds
  • 35/134 (26.1%) for 10.8pts (+8.1%) at odds of Evens to 11/2
  • 33/147 (22.5%) for 66.4pts (+45.2%) after a break of 11-120 days
  • 32/168 (19%) for 63.5pts (+37.8%) on the Flat
  • 30/120 (25%) for 69.2pts (+57.7%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 24/99 (24.2%) for 34.9pts (+35.2%) with 3 yr olds in 3yo+ company
  • 20/90 (22.2%) for 66.7pts (+74.1%) in handicaps
  • 18/72 (25%) for 65.3pts (+90.8%) at 1m/1m0.5f
  • 13/63 (20.6%) for 100pts (+158.8%) on Good/Good to Soft ground
  • 10/62 (16.1%) for 11.1pts (+17.9%) ridden by Dane O'Neill
  • and 9/38 (23.7%) for 54.3pts (+142.9%) on Good ground

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Muraad @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by SkyBet, Betfred & Totesport at 6.00pm on Tuesday, with Betfair offering a further quarter point. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2019

Friday's pick was...

6.00 Chelmsford : Tarseekh @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Led and set strong pace, ridden over 1f out, headed and no extra well inside final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Magical Wish @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good To Firm worth £9338 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old colt was a very decent third in a big-field (22 ran!) Class 2 handicap at York last time out, three weeks ago. He came from last t0 just 2 lengths off the winner in the closing stages of that 6f contest and was flying at the finish.

Positives today in comparison to that run, include a drop in class, a step back up to 7f (trip he won at 3 starts ago) and the booking of Ryan Moore in the saddle, who has a good record here at Sandown.

His trainer Richard Hannon also does well here, saddling up of 28 winners from 183 (15.3% SR) for 35.5pts (+20% ROI) profit over the last four seasons and these contain of relevance today...

  • 14/89 (15.7%) for 28.4pts (+31.9%) from 3 yr olds
  • 9/51 (17.7%) for 17.7pts (+34.7%) over this 7f course and distance
  • 8/32 (25%) for 35.5pts (+111%) from those beaten by a neck to 2 lengths LTO
  • 8/52 (15.4%) for 21.9pts (+42.1%) in July
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 12.5pts (+52.2%) ridden by Ryan Moore
  • 6/34 (17.6%) for 10.55pts (+31%) placed 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 13.2pts (+48.7%) at Class 3

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Magical Wish @ 3/1 BOG as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 7.25pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.45 Yarmouth : Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

8.40 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Greenside @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £9338 to the winner...

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding is a former Class 2 winner and comes here off the back of a pretty comfortable 2 lengths win at Windsor 17 days ago under today's jockey Harry Bentley in a similar Class 3, 1m handicap on Good ground to today's contest.

With regards to today's race, his career stats include...

  • 5 wins, 2 places from 14 over a mile (4w, 2pl from 10 on turf)
  • 3 from 8 at 16-30 days since last run
  • 4 from 7 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3 from 6 as favourite
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 in May/June
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Sandown
  • and 1 from 2 on Good ground.

As for the race itself, the race trends for the last 22 runnings (since 1997) of the Whitsun Cup include the following of relevance today...

  • all 22 winners had raced 0-3 times that season prior to the race
  • 17 had a top 4 finish LTO
  • 16 had raced in the previous 30 days
  • 11 were sent off at 4/1 or shorter
  • 10 were rated (OR) 90-94
  • 10 were favourites
  • and 8 came out of stalls 3 or 4

And finally for today, a quick look at how LTO winners trained by Henry Candy fared next time out tells me that those sent off at odds shorter than 6/1 in Flat handicaps are 13 from 40 (32.5% SR) for 14.7pts (+36.7% ROI) since 2015 of these include of note today...

  • in races worth £3k to £10k : 10/32 (31.25%) for 12.44pts (+38.9%)
  • in May/June : 5/10 (50%) for 13.59pts (+135.9%)
  • those who raced/won 15-20 days earlier : 5/10 (50%) for 12.44pts (+124.4%)
  • here at Sandown : 2/5 (40%) for 2.88pts (+57.6%)
  • and those ridden by Harry Bentley are 3 from 3 (100%) for 8.32pts (+277.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Greenside @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Sky, Unibet, Hills & BlackType (last two go BOG on raceday) at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th April 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.45 Warwick : Irish Octave @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Held up in last pair, jumped slowly and dropped to last at 8th, rallied approaching 14th, went 3rd 3 out, kept on same pace)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.05 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Leodis Dream @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo over 5f on good to firm ground worth £12450 to the winner...

Why?...

2111 in his four runs to date (only beaten by 0.75 lengths on debut by a more experienced rival), all over this 5f trip, his latest run/win came 13 days ago on his seasonal re-appearance from a 158-day absence, so if he shows no ill-effects from his exertions, should go well again today.

Stat-wise, I'm keeping it fairly simple after a tough week and I'm just going to focus on one of my "April Flat trainers to follow" aka David O'Meara.

The simple facts are that David + Flat (turf) + April = 69/436 (15.8% SR) for 118.8pts (+27.2% ROI), from which handicappers are 52/326 (16%) for 126.1pts (+38.7%) and male handicappers are 48/283 (17%) for 135.5pts (+47.9%)

...and of these 283 male O'Meara-trained April flat 'cappers...

  • those ridden by Dan Tudhope are 27/134 (20.1%) for 87.6pts (+65.4%)
  • those racing after less than 3 weeks rest : 21/101 (20.8%) for 34.7pts (+34.4%)
  • on Good to Firm : 16/93 (17.2%) for 21.1pts (+22.7%)
  • those stepping up a class are 12/49 (24.5%) for 43pts (+87.8%)
  • LTO winners are 10/37 (27%) for 10.33pts (+27.9%)
  • and here at Sandown : 1/3 (33.3%) for 1.86pts (+62%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Leodis Dream @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 8th March 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.10 Wincanton : Myplaceatmidnight @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Prominent, led after 3 out, jumped left and not fluent 2 out, not fluent last, headed towards finish and beaten by 0.75 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darebin 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft ground, worth £7507 to the winner... 

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding in good form, including winning this very race last year and is 7 from 30 (23.33% SR) in NH races to date, including...

  • 6 wins and 2 places from 24 within a month of his last race
  • 6 wins and a place from 21 ridden by Jamie Moore (more on him shortly)
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 19 going right handed
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 14 over 1m7½f to 2m
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 13 on Soft ground
  • 5 from 10 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 10 here at Sandown
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 over course and distance in chases.

He's by It's Gone, whose offspring are 14/55 (25.5%) for 78.3pts (+142.3% ROI) in NH contests so far, including...

  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 88.3pts (+196.2%) over 1m7½f to 2m1½f
  • 12/44 (27.3%) for 78.9pts (+179.2%) from male runners
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 39.1pts (+170.2%) on soft
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 3.6pts (+19%) over fences
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 16.2pts (+147.2%) here at Sandown

He is trained by Gary Moore, whose chasers have won 18 of 72 (25% SR) for 54.8pts (+76.1% ROI) here at Sandown since the start of 2012, from which...

  • handicappers are 11/51 (21.6%) for 12.7pts (+24.8%)
  • 5-8 yr olds are 16/47 (34%) for 69.3pts (+147.5%)
  • those ridden by Jamie Moore are 13/38 (34.2%) for 35.5pts (+93.5%)
  • over 1m7½f to 2m : 12/32 (37.5%) for 40.4pts (+126.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 10/32 (31.25%) for 39.2pts (+122.5%)
  • and in March : 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.3pts (+92.1%)

...and 5-7 yr old male handicap chasers ridden by Jamie Moore are 6/15 (40% SR) for 20.5pts (+136.5% ROI) including 2 wins from 2 on Darebin over course and distance!

The above isn't too surprising, as Jamie has ridden 20 winners from 57 (35.1% SR) over fences here at Sandown since 2013, generating profits of 58.4pts at an very attractive ROI of some 102.4% and with today's race in mind, those numbers include...

  • from December to April : 19/47 (40.4%) for 62.4pts (+132.8%)
  • in handicaps : 15/47 (31.9%) for 38.9pts (+82.7%)
  • in fields of 10 or fewer : 19/40 (47.5%) for 66.4pts (+166%)
  • at odds of 10/1 or shorter : 20/38 (52.6%) for 77.4pts (+203.7%)
  • riding for Gary Moore : 12/35 (34.3%) for 36.9pts (+105.3%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/22 (40.9%) for 28.9pts (+131.1%)
  • and over 1m7½f to 2m : 14/21 (66.7%) for 39.5pts (+188.3%)

...from which...Dec-April + 10/1 max + 10 runners max + 1m7½f to 2m = 14/18 (77.8% SR) for 42.5pts (+236.3% ROI), including...

  • for Gary Moore : 8/11 (72.7%) for 23.7pts (+215.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 6/8 (75%) for 16.6pts (+207%)
  • for Gary Moore at Class 3 : 3/5 (60%) for 8.82pts (+176.4%)
  • and for Gary Moore at Class 3 from 2015-19 : 3/3 (100%) for 10.82pts (+360.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darebin 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th January 2019

Friday's Pick was...

5.20 Kempton : Tigerfish @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, bumped over 6f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m on Soft ground worth £15640 to the winner... 

Why?

Just 3 runs in the UK so far for this 5 yr old gelding, but never out of of the first three home in those contests. Third in each of his first two efforts, he got off the mark in a 2m hurdle on heavy ground at Ffos Las 19 days ago, having comfortably made all and winning with ease by seven lengths, but the margin of victory could have been far more if he'd been pushed.

His trainer, Jane Williams, is 7 from 24 (29.2% SR) for 32.2pts (+134.3% ROI) over the last 12 weeks and although that's a fairly small sample size, there are some interesting/relevant angles at play today as those runners include...

  • males : 7/21 (33.3%) for 35.2pts (+167.8%)
  • hurdlers : 7/18 (38.9%) for 38.2pts (+212.4%)
  • prizes of 4k to 17k : 7/15 (46.7%) for 41.2pts (+274.9%)
  • ridden by Lizzie Kelly : 3/14 (21.4%) for 20pts (+143%)
  • at 7/1 or shorter : 6/13 (46.2%) for 13.5pts (+103.8%)
  • handicappers : 3/7 (42.9%) for 13.2pts (+188.5%)
  • within 25 dslr : 3/5 (60%) for 1.89pts (+37.8%)
  • over this 2m trip : 3/4 (75%) for 29.5pts (+736.7%)
  • and LTO winners : 2/4 (50%) for 7.6pts (+190%)

...from which... male hurdlers priced at 7/1 and shorter aiming for prizes of £4k to £17k are 6/8 (75% SR) for 18.5pts (+231.2% ROI) including that LTO win by Monsieur Lecoq at odds of 4/6, which leads me nicely to another angle of note for today ie in UK handicap hurdles over the last four years, horses who were sent off at odds on prices and won LTO by more than one length in the previous 25 days are 59/205 (28.8% SR) for 46.7pts (+22.8% ROI) and these include...

  • for prizes up to £17k : 53/161 (32.9%) for 35.4pts (+22%)
  • up in class : 30/115 (26.1%) for 49pts (+42.6%)
  • over 1m7.5f to 2m1f : 20/63 (31.8%) for 34.4pts (+54.6%)
  • on soft ground : 11/40 (27.5%) for 15pts (+37.5%)

...from which... those racing over 1m7.5f to 2m1f stepping up 1 or 2 classes for a prize of £4k to £17k are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 14.86pts (+92.9% ROI), including 3 winners from 4 (75%) for 14.05pts (+351.2%) on soft ground...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 5.05pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th December 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

2.15 Wincanton : Bermeo @ 3/1 BOG fell at 3/1 (Chased leaders, every chance 3 out, fell on landing 2 out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

12.50 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cap St Vincent @ 11/4 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Good To Soft ground worth £9384 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from just three efforts over fences so far and comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Ludlow (by 8l) 22 days ago and then at Musselburgh (by 7l) 11 days later/ago with today's jockey Alan Johns in the saddle on both occasions.

Stat-wise, he became of interest as a qualifier of one of my micros that looks at LTO winners of handicap chases and whilst the strategy might look complicated in print, it's actually pretty straightforward and logical ie...

...Since the start of 2013 : males running in Class 3/4, UK Handicap Chases shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word "Good" in the official description who won a handicap chase LTO less than three weeks earlier and aren't now dropping in class are 238 from 872 (27.3% SR) for 155.7pts (+17.9% ROI)...

And as 872 bets over 5 yrs from just one angle is too many for lots of people, there are various angles you could attack this strategy from, but I'll just give you ten that are all relevant today...

  • at SP odds of 6/4 to 10/1 : 172/686 (25.1%) for 189.6pts (+27.6%)
  • 6 to 15 days after that LTO win : 157/517 (30.4%) for 131.4pts (+25.4%)
  • won by 2 to 10 lengths LTO : 129/411 (31.4%) for 152.2pts (+37%) this is a good/simple filter : just 47% of the original bets for only 3.5pts less profit!
  • at Class 3 : 88/361 (24.4%) for 76pts (+21%)
  • stepping up in class : 93/340 (27.4%) for 70.1pts (+20.6%)
  • on good to soft : 71/270 (26.3%) for 61.5pts (+22.8%)
  • in 2018 : 40/122 (32.8%) for 35.7pts (+29.3%)
  • at 1m7.5f/2m : 36/94 (38.3%) for 58.1pts (+61.8%)
  • trained by Tim Vaughan : 5/12 (41.7%) for 3.07pts (+25.6%)
  • and here at Sandown : 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.3pts (+78.7%)

You can, of course, combine the above to make a composite micro, but you do dilute the sample size each time you add a new filter, but if you wanted say around 15% of the original number of bets, then...Class 3 at 6/4 to 10/1, 6-15 dslr, won by a neck to 10L LTO = 35/123 (28.5% SR) for 78.4pts (+63.7% ROI), including 6 from 15 (40%) for 10.05pts (+67%) this year alone...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Cap St Vincent @ 11/4 BOG , as offered by Bet365, 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.25pm on Thursday evening, whilst an extra quarter of a point was available from SkyBet. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

4.30 Lingfield : Oasis Fantasy @ 11/4 BOG WON at 3/1 (Tracked leader, ridden 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, led towards finish to win by a neck)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.55 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Geetanjali @ 11/4 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 4 Handicap (AW)  for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack, worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

Well, I'm going to keep it fairly simple again with this 3 yr old filly who has improved for the step up in trip to 1m2f (and 1 run at 1m4f), making the frame in all six starts at the longer trip(s). She was only beaten by half a length last time out (9 days ago) and runs off the same mark and under the same jockey today.

That jockey is Silvestre de Sousa and in two rides on this filly, he has a win and that narrow defeat as a runner-up, whilst the horse herself has won 3 of 7 in fields of 8-11 runners and she's 2 from 2 after a break of 7 to 10 days.

Her trainer Michael Bell is 14/80 (17.5% SR) for 15pts (+18.7% ROI) here at Sandown since the start of 2010 and these include (of relevance today, of course!)...

  • in handicaps : 9/55 (16.4%) for 19.4pts (+35.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 9/45 (20%) for 17.25pts (+38.3%)
  • on Good ground : 5/31 (16.1%) for 22.7pts (+73.3%)
  • at odds of 11/2 and shorter : 10/28 (35.7%) for 13.8pts (+49.3%)
  • female runners are 4/25 (16%) for 7.05pts (+28.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.2pts (+151.4%)
  • in September : 2/9 (22.2%) for 9.56pts (+106.2%)
  • and those beaten by a head to a length LTO are 4/7 (57.1%) for 23.6pts (+337.1%)

Now, you might have noticed no trainer/jockey stats in that list there, that's because Silvestre de Sousa hasn't ridden a Michael Bell horse here at Sandown as far as I'm aware, but he has ridden 18 winners from 80 (22.5% SR) on this track for other trainers over the last three seasons, so he clearly rides this one well. Those winners have generated 11.32pts profit at an ROI of 14.2% and of the 80 rides...

  • handicappers are 13/54 (24.1%) for 9.64pts (+17.8%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 11/2 : 16/41 (39%) for 28.5pts (+69.6%)
  • 3 yr olds are 8/35 (22.9%) for 5.8pts (+16.6%)
  • and at Class 5 : 9/25 (36%) for 19.22pts (+76.9%)

AND...from the above...3 yr old handicappers priced at 5/4 to 11/2 are 6/14 (42.9%) for 9.28pts (+66.3% ROI) with 5 of the 8 "losers" making the frame and Class 5 runners winning 3 of 5 (60%) for profits of 4.46pts (+89.2%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Geetanjali @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by the first three firms (BF, PP & B365) to have shown their hand by 5.05pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.25 Ffos Las : Sylvias Mother @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 13/2 (Chased leaders, every chance disputing 2nd 2f out until over 1f out, went 2nd again inside final furlong, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Firmament @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 2 Optional Claiming Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good ground, worth £19407 to the winner...

Why?

I'm going to keep this relatively short and simple today with a 6 yr old gelding who was a decent third (beaten by half a length) in a more valuable Class 2 contest at the Ebor meeting at York recently, but was then only 6th next/last time out at the Curragh when not getting the race run to suit him 13 days ago, so the ability is there, but things might need to fall better for him.

From a numbers perspective, trainer David O'Meara record over the last five Flat seasons with males racing over 6/7 furlongs after a short break of 4-20 days (ie rested but not rusty) currently stands at 74/511 (14.5% SR) for 60.2pts (+11.8% ROI), from which...

  • those who failed to win LTO are 61/444 (13.7%) for 71.9pts (+16.2%)
  • with the word "good" in the going description : 62/419 (14.8%) for 90.7pts (+21.7%)
  • those priced at 15/8 to 9/1 are 56/288 (19.4%) for 54.6pts (+19%)
  • those beaten by a neck to 6 lengths LTO are 42/255 (16.5%) for 69.8pts (+27.4%)
  • in 4yo+ races : 15/114 (13.2%) for 59.4pts (+52.1%)
  • off a mark (OR) of 99-111 : 9/63 (14.3%) for 106.5pts (+169%)
  • and in a claimer : 2/8 (25%) for 7.2pts (+90%)

AND...from the above...those beaten by a neck to 6 lengths, 4-20 days earlier and are now priced at 15/8 to 9/1 are 26/129 (20.2% SR) for 27.6pts (+21.4% ROI) with 55% of them making the frame...

I'm well aware that stablemate Rousayan would also qualify for that stat, but our pick looks the better horse of the two and is boosted by the presence of the in-form Jamie Spencer in the saddle. Jamie rode a nice winner at Doncaster yesterday, but pitches up here instead today, which hopefully will be to our benefit.

Jamie has ridden 20 winners in 79 races (25.3% SR) over the past 30 days and a £10 stake on each of them would have realised a profit of £220 at an ROI of 27.8%, with even better numbers coming over shorter trips where judgement of the race pace is even more important, winning 13 of 44 (29.5%) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs for a return of 30.93pts at an excellent ROI of 70.3%...

...prompting me to place... a 1pt win bet on Firmament @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG , prices offered by Ladbrokes & Coral respectively as of 5.05pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!