Tag Archives: Sam Twiston-Davies

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2020

New Year's Eve's pick was...

3.20 Lingfield : Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, never nearer)

New Year's Day's pick runs in the...

12.15 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Redford Road @ 3/1 and Betfair SP

...in the 6-runner, Listed, Ballymore Novices Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £14,238 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding was a Grade 2 winner here at Cheltenham on his last start 18 days ago and although he now takes a drop in trip, he has won at 2m4f over hurdles in the past. In fact he's never been out of the first two home in five starts, winning three times and never beaten by more than a length, including...

  • 3 from 3 going left handed
  • 2 wins and a second from 3 over hurdles (all Novice events)
  • 2 from 2 under jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
  • a win and a second from 2 on Soft ground
  • and 1 from 1 here at Cheltenham

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' hurdlers who won last time out are 31 from 99 (31.3% SR) for 17.1pts (+17.3% ROI) when sent off at odds of Evens to 13/2 over the past four years, including of relevance today...

  • 31/97 (32%) for 19.1pts (+19.7%) with males
  • 25/67 (37.3%) for 30.2pts (+45.1%) with 5/6 yr olds
  • 11/19 (57.9%) for 22.4pts (+117.7%) over trips of 2m3½f to 2m4½f
  • 9/30 (30%) for 1.5pts (+5%) on soft ground
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 2.4pts (+12.4%) here at HQ
  • 5/10 (50%) for 8.26pts (+82.6%) in January
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 10.6pts (+265%) from those dropping in trip by 4-5 furlongs

...whilst from the above...5-6 yr old males racing over 2m3½f to 2m4½f are 9/15 (60% SR) for 21.53pts (+143.5% ROI) including 4/7 on soft, 2/2 in Jan, 2/2 dropping 4-5f and 1/1 at Chelts...

...giving us...0.5pts at Betfair SP and a 0.5pt win bet on Redford Road @ 3/1 as was available from Paddy Power & Betfair at 6.40pm on New Year's Eve. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.15 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th October 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.00 Hexham : Only Orsenfoolies @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Held up towards rear, headway from 2 out, in 4th before last, left 3rd soon after last, no impression )

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Included @ 7/2 BOG 

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2mf on Good ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 7yr old mare making a yard debut for Dr Richard Newland, who despite not frequenting Fontwell too often is still 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 1.5pts (+16.6% ROI) with his handicap chasers at this venue since 2012, including 4 from 6 with 6/7 yr olds, 2 from 3 on Good ground and 1 from 1 in October.

He also does very well with horses having their first start for him, especially those fancied by the market, as those sent off at odds ranging from 5/4 to 11/2 are 39 from 102 (38.2% SR) for 41.8pts (+41% ROI), including the following dozen relevant & profitable angles at play today...

  • 36/84 (42.9%) for 47.7pts (+55.6%) at Class 4/5
  • 35/83 (42.2%) for 46.2pts (+55.6%) over trips of 2m-2m6.5f
  • 22/49 (44.9%) for 32.5pts (+66.4%) in handicaps
  • 21/55 (38.2%) for 19.4pts (+35.3%) at Class 4
  • 19/48 (39.6%) for 19.1pts (+39.8%) with his only runner of the day
  • 19/45 (42.2%) for 26.4pts (+58.7%) were unplaced LTO
  • 16/47 (34%) for 11.4pts (+24.2%) with Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle
  • 14/31 (45.2%) for 21.3pts (+68.9%) with those rested for less than two months
  • 14/30 (46.7%) for 19.5pts (+65.1%) from those with 20-45 previous career runs
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 1.17pts (+6.9%) in Novice contests
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 4.11pts (+29.4%) over fences
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 10.54pts (+95.7%) during September/October

I found the stat very interesting about him giving a debut to those who had already been around the block several times, as I'm not sure very many trainer could match that kind of record (perhaps I'll research that today?), but all of the above details have...

...steered me towards... a 1pt win bet on Included @ 7/2 BOG  as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.35pm on Friday, although the last two won't actually be BOG until midnight. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd April 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.45 Musselburgh : City Tour @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/2 (Chased leaders on outside, went 2nd and hung right inside final furlong, ran on to lead towards finish op 3/1)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.05 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

EarloftheCotswolds 6/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £12996 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding is the only course and distance winner on show here today, none of the other 10 rivals have won at this trip and only two have registered a victory on this track.

Our boy had a win and a place from 3 bumper runs and has since finished a very respectable 21512 over hurdles, only narrowly beaten LTO 34 days ago. He's by Axxos, whose hurdlers have won 7 of their 20 starts (35% SR) so far, whilst his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record here at Market Rasen from a fairly small number of runners.

Since 2010, NTD's runners are 18 from 98 (18.4% SR) here for 20.4pts (+20.8% ROI) profit, from which...

  • males are 16/89 (18%) for 24.4pts (+27.4%)
  • those priced at 6/4 to 10/1 are 14/67 (20.9%) for 27.1pts (+40.4%)
  • those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 10/51 (19.6%) for 3.1pts (+6.1%)
  • since 2015 : 9/44 (20.5%) for 14.3pts (+32.5%)
  • and at trips of 2m5f to 2m7f : 10/40 (25%) for 25.8pts (+64.5%)

...whilst from the above... Sam's record on males priced at 6/4 to 10/1 = 7/32 (21.9%) for 15.3pts (+47.9%), including...

  • at 2m5f to 2m7f : 3/13 (23.1%) for 8.38pts (+64.5%)
  • 2018/19 : 3/6 (50%) for 7.13pts (+118.8%)
  • and at 2m5f-2m7f in 2018/19 = 1/1 (100%) for 2.25pts (+225%) from EarloftheCotswolds' run here two starts ago!

More generally in UK NH Handicap Hurdle contests since 2013, horses with the CD icon next to their name on the racecard who either won or were a top 4 finisher within 2 lengths of the winner last time out are 274 from 1231 (22.3% SR) for 215.9pts (+17.5% ROI) backed blindly!

With today's race in mind, those 1231 runners can be filtered as follows...

  • males are 228/1016 (22.4%) for 193.5pts (+19.1%)
  • those last seen 11-60 days earlier are 200/914 (21.9%) for 182.1pts (+19.9%)
  • over trips of 2m1f to 3m : 170/695 (24.5%) for 272.1pts (+39.2%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 129/457 (28.2%) for 109.3pts (+23.9%)
  • and at Class 3 : 85/317 (26.8%) for 199.6pts (+63%)

...and if you wanted a micro giving around 50 bets per year, then 5 to 11 yr old males racing over 2m1f to 3m at Class 3-5 some 11 to 60 days after their last run = 90 from 332 (27.1% SR) for 210.9pts (+63.5% ROI) and there's just one qualifier today...

...and that gives... a 1pt win bet on EarloftheCotswolds 6/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.00pm on Tuesday.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 27th October 2018

Friday's Pick was...

1.20 Doncaster : Lola's Theme @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn early on race day, citing the going) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Foxtail Hill @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £37140 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding won this race last year off a mark 2lbs higher than today and although he hasn't raced in the last 189 days...(a) neither have most of his rivals and (b) when winning this last year, he was coming off a break of 192 days, so we know he can go well fresh.

He has 4 wins and 2 places from 17 efforts over fences and these include of relevance today...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 13 in handicaps
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 8 on Good ground
  • 2 wins from 8 at 2m/2m0.5f
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 7 here at Cheltenham
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 7 with jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
  • 1 from 2 at Class 2 (but has won at Gr 3!)
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (last year's race)

His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' handicap chasers are going well right now winning 6 of 22 (27.3% SR) for 4.59pts (+20.9% ROI) over the last 30 days, but that's no real surprise to me, because since 2013 during the May to October period, his 5 to 10 yr old male handicap chasers have won 56 of 243 (23.1% SR) for 166.9pts (+68.7% ROI) when rested for at least 16 days.

Of these 243 runners and of note today...

  • those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 40/163 (24.5%) for 135.7pts (+83.3%)
  • on Good ground : 31/160 (19.4%) for 51.5pts (+32.2%)
  • at odds of 5/2 to 5/1 : 36/112 (32.1%) for 63pts (+56.2%)
  • in October : 27/93 (29%) for 70.6pts (+185.7%)
  • those returning from a break of 5 to 8 months are 12/53 (22.6%) for 23.3pts (+43.9%)
  • at Class 2 : 6/40 (15%) for 5.93pts (+14.8%)
  • 9 yr olds are 11/38 (29%) for 70.6pts (+185.7%)
  • those competing for a prize worth £25k to £40k are 3/16 (18.75%) for 14.46pts (+90.4%)
  • previous course and distance winners are 5/15 (33.3%) for 25.88pts (+172.5%)
  • and here at HQ : 3/10 (30%) for 15.32pts (+153.2%)

...AND...if you wanted just a handful of bets each year with a high strike rate and high yield, then Sam Twiston-Davies on those priced at 5/2 to 5/1 on Good ground or softer in September/October is 16 from 40 (40% SR) for 37.17pts (+92.9% ROI) with those coming off a break of 5 to 8 months winning 4 of 12 933.3%) for 9.64pts (+72%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Foxtail Hill @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms at 5.25pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th March 2018

Tuesday's Result :

2.20 Lingfield : Something Lucky @ 2/1 BOG WON at 11/8 Restless in stalls, dwelt tracked leader, joined leader over 1f out, pushed along to lead narrowly inside final furlong, ran on to win by a head.

Next up is Wednesday's...

3.40 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cabernet D'Alene @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 2m3.5f handicap hurdle on good to soft ground worth £6,238 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is 4 from 9 over hurdles over the last 12 months, handles pretty much any sort of ground and although now trying 2m3.5f for the first time, is 2 from 3 at 2m3f over the last years including a win by 11 lengths last time out (7 weeks ago) on heavy ground, so stamina won't be the issue here.

He's trained by Nick Williams (under-rated in my opinion), who is having the time of it with his handicap hurdlers of late with 13 winners from 72 (18.1% SR) generating profits of 80.2pts (+111.4% ROI) since the start of 2017 with the following of relevance today...

  • 4-6 yr olds are 11/55 (20%) for 91.26pts (+165.9%)
  • those last seen 16-90 days ago are 12/53 (22.6%) for 90.3pts (+170.4%)
  • over trips of 2m to 2m4f : 8/33 (24.2%) for 83.4pts (+252.7%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 5/15 (33.3%) for 79.4pts (+529.1%)

Now, Lizzie Kelly & Chester Williams are Nick's usual go-to jockeys in these races, but today's deputy Sam Twiston-Davies is (a) no mug, (b) 1 from 1 of those 72 runners above, (c) in great form : 5 wins and 4 places from 16 rides over the last two weeks and (d) very adept around this track, winning 25 of 94 (26.6% SR) here at Fontwell since 2012.

And lastly (for now!), this horse was sired by Day Flight, whose offspring are 20/81 (24.7% SR) for 29.8pts (+36.8% ROI) since the start of 2015...

...but for now, it's just...a 1pt win bet on Cabernet D'Alene @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betway & Skybet at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th May 2017

Friday's Result :

7.40 Ripon : Swift Emperor @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 Held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, ridden inside final furlong, no extra towards finish.

Friday's pick goes in the...

7.30 Warwick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Brahms de Clermont3/1 BOG

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who has made a flying start to his career finishing 116421 in his 6 starts so far, the latest run being a win at Exeter four days ago.

Trainer Paul Nicholls' runners are 23/81 (28.4% SR) over the last 30 days and 3 from 7 (42.9% SR) over the past week, so they're clearly in good nick, whilst here at Warwick, they are 15/54 (27.8% SR) since 2011.

And Mr Nicholls' record with handicap debutants  stands at 28 wins from 117 (23.9% SR) for 66.8pts (+55.6% ROI) since 2014, including...

  • hurdlers at 24/102 (23.5%) for 70.2pts (+69.5%)
  • those ridden by today's jockey Sam Twiston-Davies are 13/55 (23.6%) for 34.1pts (+61.9%)
  • Class 3 runners are 15/47 (31.9%) for 32pts (+62.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 10/31 (32.3%) for 41pts (+136.7%)

And speaking of Sam Twiston-Davies, he's also in good form, with a 5/22 (22.7% SR) record over the fortnight, including 3 winners from 11 (27.3% SR) in the last 7 days and since 2013, he has 21 winners from 112 (18.75% SR) here at Warwick, of which those trained by Paul Nicholls are 8 from 19 (42.1% SR) for 11pts (+57.9% ROI) profit.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Brahms de Clermont3/1 BOG which was widely available at 8.40pm on Friday, but if you can grab the 10/3 BOG offered by Paddy Power, please do do! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 27th March 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.25 Bangor : Cresswell Breeze @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Tracked leaders, led 6th, headed approaching last, soon rallied, no extra closing stages

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.10 Market Rasen...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Norse Light3/1 BOG

Why?

Firstly an apology (thanks BT / SKY) for the tardiness of the write-up. Tech issues here in East Lancashire prevented me getting back online last night!

So, I'll keep it brief (but the research done was as usual!)...

A 6 yr old gelding racing over 2m5f on Good to Soft ground, trained by David Dennis.

David's hcp hurdlers at odds of 13.2 and shorter are 21/101 (20.8% SR) for 10.95pts (+10.84% ROI) since the start of 2014, including...

  • males : 21/98 (21.4%) for 13.95pts (+14.2%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m1f : 12/49 (24.5%) for 12.86pts (+26.2%)
  • on Gd to Soft : 7/22 (31.8%) for 15.66pts (+71.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/22 (27.3%) for 7.85pts (+35.7%)
  • and ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies : 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.09pts (+172.8%)

Furthermore, Norse Light is by Norse Dancer, whose 6/7 yr old offspring are 23/99 (23.2% SR) for 64.5pts (+65.2% ROI) since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 8/28 (28.6%) for 8.2pts (+29.2%)
  • over 2m 4.5 f to 2m 7.5f : 9/27 (33.3%) for 18.5pts (+68.5%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 2m 4.5 f to 2m 7.5f are 2/4 (50%) for 11.06pts (+276.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Norse Light 3/1 BOG which was available in at least half a dozen places at 7.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 30th August 2016

Monday's Result :

5.25 Epsom : Crowning Glory @ 4/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Tracked leader, led over 2f out, ridden out to beat Ripoll by a length and a quarter, comfortably enough in the end)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Moonday Sun at 11/4 BOG

Why?

A handicap debut now beckons for this 7 yr old gelding who won a maiden over 2m 0.5f at Bangor by 9 lengths last time out, 11 days ago. He was rated at 113 that day and even taking into consideration that his jockey had a 3lb claim there, today's opening handicap mark of 114 might prove to be a little lenient.

Sam Twiston-Davies will ride for dad Nigel and Sam is in good nick. I saw him ride a near-15/1 double at Cartmel on Saturday and he always relishes riding for "the family".

This time of year has become known as "Twister Season" in many quarters, but for those of you not familiar with it, it's basically the right time of year for backing Nigel Twiston-Davies' hurdlers.

What you need is a 5 to 10 yr old NTD-trained hurdler running in August/September/October and that's it. Back them all since 1st August 2008 and you've 64 winners from 303 (21.1% SR) and a £20 stake on each would have made you £5186 profit at a very attractive 85.6% ROI.

If you don't want 10-12 bets per month from just one angle in your portfolio, some sensible/logical filters include...

  • 5-8 yr olds, who are 60/273 (22%) for 254pts (+93%)
  • males are 55/250 (22%) for 236.2pts (+94.5%)
  • Class 4 runners are 38/149 (25.5%) for 246.1pts (+165.2%)
  • those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 33/145 (22.8%) for 174.6pts (+120.4%)
  • and those competing over 1m 7.5f to 2m 0.5f are 18/65 (27.7%) for 42.4pts (+65.2%)

AND...5-8 yr old males ridden by Sam in a Class 4 race are 18/57 (31.6% SR) for 160.5pts (+281.6% ROI)

And to be perfectly honest, that's enough to be able to base a bet on, but I do like to give a little more where possible, so we could also look at the fate of Nigel's handicap hurdlers turned back out with 30 days of a win and we see that since 2008, they are 21 from 115 (18.3% SR) for 36pts (+31.3% ROI).

Convinced now? Or do you need one more? Oh, go on then...Nigel Twiston-Davies' NH handicap debutants are 29/159 (18.2% SR) for 103.9pts (+65.4% ROI) since the start of 2010 with hurdlers providing 25 of those winners from 139 efforts (18%), generating level stakes profits of 101.2pts at an ROI of 72.8%.

And of those 139 hurdling handicap debutants, Class 4 runners are 14/62 (22.6%) for 78pts (+125.8%), whilst those racing over 2m / 2m 0.5f are 6/21 (28.6%) for 54.5pts (+259.5%) and that's your lot for today...

...so, it's time to place...a 1pt win bet on Moonday Sun at 11/4 BOG, with either Bet365 or Hills who jointly headed the market at 5.45pm on Monday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Worcester.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2016

Monday's Result :

3.45 Brighton: Brave Archibald @ 10/ E/W BOG 2nd at 8/1 (Short of room start, in touch towards rear, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway inside final furlong, driven and stayed on to go 2nd final strides). On a tough day stats-wise, I was very pleased to emerge with a small profit of half a point to keep the ball rolling.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.00 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Frontier Vic at 7/2 BOG.

Why?

Over the last two years, this 9 yr old gelding has proved to be remarkably consistent, with 11 top 3 finishes from 13 efforts and was a winner by a length and a quarter in a 3m contest last time out at Perth almost four weeks ago.

He's trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, whose handicap hurdlers are 21/112 (18.75% SR) for 39pts (+34.8% ROI) profit when turned back out within 30 days of a win last time out. And of more pertinence today, we can filter those 112 runners down as follows...

  • males are 19/94 (20.2% SR) for 43.2pts (+46% ROI)
  • on ground deemed good, good to soft or soft : 18/85 (21.2% SR) for 37.3pts (+57.5% ROI)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 8/1 : 16/76 (21.1% SR) for 21.9pts (+28.9% ROI)
  • those raised 2 to 7lbs for that LTO win are 14/65 (21.5% SR) for 37.3pts (+57.5% ROI)
  • at trips of 2m5f and beyond : 12/57 (21.1% SR) for 51.8pts (+90.8% ROI)
  • racing 26 to 30 days after that LTO win : 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 38.6pts (+275.9% ROI)

I should also touch on the fact that Nigel's son Sam will be in the saddle and Sam's record on his dad's Class 4 male hurdlers currently stands at 63 winners from 350 (18% SR) for decent level stakes profits of some 124.8pts (+35.7% ROI), with those horses running beyond 3m winning 10 of 43 (23.3% SR) for 20.5pts (+47.6% ROI).

And the call is...a 1pt win bet on Frontier Vic at 7/2 BOG with either Bet365 or BetVictor, who were the standout BOG bookies at 6.30pm, whilst Betfred, Ladbrokes and Totesport were all quoting the same odds, but don't/won't offer BOG until the day of the race. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 3rd November 2015

Stat of the Day, 3rd November 2015

Monday's Result :

2.40 Ludlow : Ascendant @ 6/1 BOG : 3rd at 8/1 (Chasing leaders when in view after 2nd, led after 4 out, headed when in view last, lost 2nd close home)

Tuesday's selection runs in the...

2.20 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Vibrato Valtat @ 100/30 BOG

Why?

Rather than one headline stat to draw other details from, there are a few reasons behind this selection.

  1. Trainer Paul Nicholls' horses are in great nick at the moment, as typified by 13 winners from 35 (37.1% SR) for 12.62pts (+36.1% ROI) in the last fortnight. Today's jockey Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden 7 of those winners from 21 attempts (33.3% SR) and Paul's chasers have contributed 7 wins from 19 (36.8% SR) for 8.85pts (+46.6% ROI) profit, with Sam riding 4 winners from 11.
  2. Sam Twiston-Davies' record in chases here at Exeter since the start of 2013 has 5 wins from 29 (17.2% SR) for 10.35pts (+35.7% ROI) with handicaps showing 4 wins from 25 (16% SR) for 13.11pts (+52.44% ROI).
  3. Since 2008, Paul Nicholls' Exeter chasers priced at 5/1 or shorter over trips of 2m4f and shorter are 20/47 (42.6% SR) for 12.2pts (+26% ROI), with those competing on Good to Soft/Soft ground winning 16 of 31 (51.6% SR) for 20.65pts (+66.6% ROI).
  4. On soft ground with chasers priced at evens to 10/1 the Nicholls/Twiston-Davies combo are 12 from 39 (30.8% SR) for 25.6pts (65.7% ROI).
  5. Vibrato Valtat seems to have an ideal profle for today's encounter, boasting a record of 6/18 in jumps contests (4/8 in chases) to date and with this contest in mind, his figures are...

    6/15 at odds of 5/1 and shorter (4/6 in chases)
    6/14 on ground good to soft or worse (4/7 in chases)
    6/9 in fields of 4 to 6 runners (4/6 in chases)
    3/8 going right handed (2/3 in chases)
    3/8 with Sam Twiston-Davies (2/6 in chases)
    3/8 on soft ground (3/4 in chases)
    2/3 in Grade 2 events (2/3 in Gr 2 chases)
    1/1 here at Exeter (no chase run here yet)

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Vibrato Valtat at 100/30 BOG with Betfred / Totesport, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.