Tag Archives: Ryan Moore

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2019

Friday's pick was...

6.00 Chelmsford : Tarseekh @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Led and set strong pace, ridden over 1f out, headed and no extra well inside final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Magical Wish @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good To Firm worth £9338 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old colt was a very decent third in a big-field (22 ran!) Class 2 handicap at York last time out, three weeks ago. He came from last t0 just 2 lengths off the winner in the closing stages of that 6f contest and was flying at the finish.

Positives today in comparison to that run, include a drop in class, a step back up to 7f (trip he won at 3 starts ago) and the booking of Ryan Moore in the saddle, who has a good record here at Sandown.

His trainer Richard Hannon also does well here, saddling up of 28 winners from 183 (15.3% SR) for 35.5pts (+20% ROI) profit over the last four seasons and these contain of relevance today...

  • 14/89 (15.7%) for 28.4pts (+31.9%) from 3 yr olds
  • 9/51 (17.7%) for 17.7pts (+34.7%) over this 7f course and distance
  • 8/32 (25%) for 35.5pts (+111%) from those beaten by a neck to 2 lengths LTO
  • 8/52 (15.4%) for 21.9pts (+42.1%) in July
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 12.5pts (+52.2%) ridden by Ryan Moore
  • 6/34 (17.6%) for 10.55pts (+31%) placed 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 13.2pts (+48.7%) at Class 3

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Magical Wish @ 3/1 BOG as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 7.25pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2017

Monday's Result :

2.35 Perth : Johnny Go @ 4/1 BOG RACE VOID, stakes returned : Fell and sadly fatally injured at first fence, causing race to be abandoned...

A sad day at Perth on Monday for all concerned and the thoughts of everyone here at Geegeez are with connections of Johnny Go.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.25 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

War Glory @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old gelding has certainly been banging on the door of late, finishing 322 in his last three outings and was only beaten late on by half a length last time out when outpaced to the line at Chester 10 days ago.

That race was at a higher grade and over half a furlong than today, so it is hoped/expected that the drop in both grade and trip will do the trick today, as he certainly wouldn't be winning out of turn!

Another bonus comes in the shape of the booking of the ever-reliable Ryan Moore to take the ride, as he continues to churn out those winners at a rate of 1 in 4, whilst here at Leicester, his strike rate is even better at 26.4% via 47 winners from 148 over the last nine seasons.

Trainer Richard Hannon is 22/154 (14.3% SR) overall here at this track and whilst that's a reasonable strike rate, it's not quite enough to show a profit from blindly backing all his runners, but if we focus on those priced at Evens to 8/1, we have 21 winners from 100 (21% SR) for profits of 9.86pts (+9.86% ROI).

Those 100 runners include...

  • those carrying 9st 3lbs or more : 12/52 (23.1%) for 14.4pts (+27.7%)
  • those last seen 6-20 days ago : 14/46 (30.4%) for 30.5pts (+66.4%)
  • those racing over 7 furlongs are 8/36 (22.2%) for 8.8pts (+24.3%)
  • and those dropping down a grade are 8/28 (28.6%) for 20.2pts (+72%)

And finally...2012-17 / Flat / 7f / 3-4 yr olds / top 3 finishes in each of last three races / 2nd or 3rd LTO in last 25 days = 61/289 (21.1% SR) for 159.4pts (+55.2% ROI), with those racing at Class 3 winning 9 of 28 (32.1%) for 56.8pts (+202.8%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on War Glory @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, Paddy Power, SkyBet, SunBets & 10Bet at 5.45pm on Monday, so, as ever, the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with SkyBet, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th August 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.25 York : Madeline @ 3/1 BOG - 2nd at 7/2 : Keen early, tracked leaders, pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out, ridden and stayed on to go 2nd inside final furlong, not pace to challenge...

Friday's pick also goes in the...

2.25 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dartmouth @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

On a day when there aren't a lot of horses that jump out from a statistical point of view, this is a fairly straightforward/obvious pick. At 50%, he has easily the best strike rate of all 9 runners in this contest, after winning 8 of 16 starts to date and in those 16 races so far, he is...

  • 7/12 in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 5/10 in non-handicap contests
  • 5/7 under Ryan Moore
  • 4/7 in Group races
  • 4/4 at odds of 5/2 to 4/1
  • 3/4 going left handed
  • 3/3 beyond 1m4f
  • 2/3 at Group 2
  • and 1/1 here at York

In addition to his own suitability, his yard is in good form and despite not having a winner here on Thursday they'd landed 10 winners from 28 in the previous fortnight and 5 from 14 in the previous week.

Plus Sir Michael Stoute's runners here at York are 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 32pts (+91.3% ROI) over the past couple of seasons...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dartmouth @ 4/1 BOG which was offered in a half dozen places at 6.05pm on Thursday, whilst Hills were best priced at 9/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 York 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.05 Stratford : Our Three Sons @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 Made most and set good pace, headed approaching last, kept on same pace run-in, no chance with winner.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Royal Ascot...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Highland Reel @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

It might look an obvious pick to go with the favourite in the race with least runners at the meeting, but I assure there was a little more than that behind my thoughts, as I rarely "take" SotD to the big Festivals, although my record when I do is decent enough : it's just not my bread and butter!

So, let's look at the horse himself, shall we? A 5 yr old with 5 wins from 11 so far and this 45.5% strike rate includes the following that are at play today...

  • 5 from 6 when shorter than 6/1, 4 from 6 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 4 from 6 after a break of just 2 to 5 weeks, 5 from 5 as favourite
  • 3 from 5 on good to firm ground, 2 from 3 under Ryan Moore and a win plus a runner-up spot from two runs at Ascot.

The Ryan Moore for AP O'Brien in Class 1 racing combination is a successful one with 57 wins from 204 (27.9% SR) since the start of 2011 and despite it being very well publicised, it's still very profitable at +49pts, a return of some 24%. What might not be as well known, is that of those 204 runners...

  • Irish horses are 45/149 (30.2%) for 54.8pts (+36.8%)
  • In the months of May/June : 39/113 (34.5%) for 60pts (+53.1%)
  • LTO winners are 33/92 (35.9%) for 60pts (+65.3%)
  • Those last seen 11 to 25 days ago are 25/89 (28.1%) for 68.1pts (+76.5%)
  • At Group 1 : 21/79 (26.6%) for 24.7pts (+31.3%)
  • And here at Royal Ascot : 12/51 (23.5%) for 10.7pts (+21%)

On top of the above, Male Gr 1 runners who ran at Class 1 LTO, 4 to 30 days ago and have at least one previous Class 1 win are 18/63 (28.6% SR) for 28.3pts (+44.9% ROI) since 2008, of which...

  • those trained by AP O'Brien are 6/11 (54.6%) for 9.23pts (+83.9%)
  • at Ascot : 3/8 (37.5%) for 32.8pts (+410%)
  • and at Royal Ascot : 2/3 (66.6%) for 35.4pts (+1179.2%)

...whilst Gr 1 runners with a career strike rate of 45% and higher including at least two Class 1 wins and who have the top OR in their race are 83/155 (53.6% SR) for 36.7pts (+23.7% ROI) since 2010 and these include...

  • at Ascot : 15/25 (60%) for 8.7pts (+34.8%)
  • trained by AP O'Brien : 12/19 (63.2%) for 3.43pts (+18.1%)
  • at Royal Ascot : 8/10 (80%) for 8.98pts (+89.8%)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 2.63pts (+37.6%)
  • and Ryan Moore is 5/7 (71.4%) for 2.43pts (+34.7%), all on hiorses trained by AP O'Brien!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Highland Reel11/4 BOG which was widely available at 7.10pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Royal Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th May 2016

Saturday's Result :

4.00 Chester : Heir To A Throne @ 5/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader, pushed along over 2f out, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, ran on gamely to hold on by a head)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Terhaal at 9/4 BOG

Why?

Leicester is a fairly tight track track and not all jockeys cope with it as well as otthers, but Ryan Moore seems to fare well here, especially if the market suggests he's in with a chance. This "feeling" manifests itself into 48 winners from 141 (34% SR) runners sent off at odds of 7/1 and shorter and although the overall profit of 12pts (+8.5% ROI) is a modest return for SotD purposes, it's a good starting point.

If we now look at Terhaal's trainer, David O'Meara, we see that his Leicester runners subjected that same 7/1 cut off point also have very similar strike rate to Ryan Moore's with 9 winners from 26 (34.6% SR) generating 19.4pts (+74.5% ROI) and that's without trainer & jockey propping each others figures up, as they've never previously combined here at Leicester.

In fact, Ryan hasn't ridden for David for almost 11 months, but the last time they paired up, Birdman was a winner at Haydock.  So, on that basis, the booking is interesting if nothing else!

Terhaal comes here having finished as runner-up last time out, beaten by just a length and a half six weeks ago on his seasonal reappearance after a 171 day absence. He's sure to come on for the run and it's worth noting that the winner of that race has since stepped up two levels to Class 2 to win off a mark off 88, meaning Terhaal might be underestimated of 78.

And since 2008, David O'Meara's Class 3/4 Flat handicappers running with just 1 run under their belts in the previous 90 days are 29/163 (17.8% SR) for blind level stakes profits of 41.7pts at an ROI of 25.6% and those figures in relation to this race are as follows...

  • on good to soft through to good to firm : 27/140 (19.3% SR) for 57.2pts (+40.9% ROI)
  • males are 37/131 (20.6% SR) for 67.7pts (+51.7% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 21/106 (19.8% SR) for 38.4pts (+36.2% ROI)
  • those last seen 16-60 days ago are 16/105 (15.2% SR) for 48.9pts (+46.6% ROI)
  • since the start of 2014 : 19/97 (19.6% SR) for 57pts (+58.7% ROI)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 22/59 (37.3% SR) for 38.6pts (+65.4% ROI)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/54 (20.4% SR) for 39.9pts (+73.8% ROI)
  • at trips of 8.5 to 10.5f : 12/34 (35.3% SR) for 55pts (+161.7% ROI)
  • those who were runners-up LTO are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 15.33pts (+118% ROI)
  • and here at Leicester, 2 winners from 4 (50% SR) for 2.87pts at an ROI of 71.8%

...so the call today is...a 1pt win bet on Terhaal at 9/4 BOG which was available with Boylesports, Coral, Hills & Paddy Power at 10.15pm, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 19th May 2016

Wednesday's Result :

5.15 Bath : Zeeoneandonly @ 3/1 BOG (=2.7/1 after 10p R4) 2nd at 5/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on same pace, no chance with winner).

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bedrock at 6/1 BOG.

Why?

Bedrock is trained by William Haggas who excels at producing winners in the odds range that I like to bet at (where possible!). Since the start of the 2008 season, this consistent yard has produced 142 winners from the 682 (20.8% SR) Flat handicappers sent off in the 5/2 to 10/1 odds range. And these runners have more than paid for themselves, producing 187 pts level stakes profits at an appealing ROI of 27.4%.

Closer analysis of these runners, with this race in mind, shows that...

  • those running within 6 to 25 days of their last outing are 78/330 (23.6% SR) for 173.5pts (+52.6% ROI)
  • those racing on good to firm ground are 59/254 (23.2% SR) for 97.7pts (+38.5% ROI)
  • and those ridden by Ryan Moore are 14/49 (28.6% SR) for 35.2pts (+71.9% ROI)

And those racing on good to firm ground, 6 to 25 days after their last run are 30/126 (23.8% SR) for 67.7pts (+53.7% ROI), with Ryan Moore riding 4 winners from 11 (36.4% SR) for 13.13pts (+119.4% ROI) profit.

More specifically now, William Haggas' record here at Goodwood over the last 3 and a bit seasons stands at 15 winners from 55 (27.3% SR) for 22.9pts (+41.6% ROI) profit, of which...

  • males are 11/38 (29% SR) for 23.7pts (+62.4% ROI)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 11/30 (36.7% SR) for 28.3pts (+94.2% ROI)
  • those priced at 6/1 and shorter are 13/28 (46.4% SR) for 20.8pts (+74.4% ROI)
  • on good to firm ground, they are 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 2.44pts (+22.2% ROI)
  • those ridden by Ryan Moore are 4/10 (40% SR for 4.63pts (+46.3% ROI)
  • and those running at Class 4 are 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 4.5pts (+64.3% ROI)

And males who finished 2nd or 3rd LTO and are now 6/1 and shorter have 5 wins and a place from 6 runs, producing profits 8.9pts (+148.3% ROI), from which they are 2/3 at Class 4, 2/3 under Ryan Moore and 2/2 on good to firm ground.

And finally, since the start of the 2012 campaign, 3 to 5 yrs old running on the Flat with three consecutive top 3 finishes behind them, but were losers (ie 2nd or 3rd) LTO 6-30 days ago, returned to winning ways on 310 of 1462 (21.2% SR) occasions, generating 329.2pts (+22.5% ROI) level stakes profit in the process.

Of those 1462 runners...

  • 3yr olds won 227 of 1060 (21.4% SR) for 268pts (+25.3% ROI)
  • and those finishing 3rd LTO won 131 of 666 (19.7% SR) for 203.8pts (+30.6% ROI)

From which, 3yr olds who were 3rd LTO are 85/479 (17.8% SR) for 130.2pts (+27.2% ROI), of which...
...those racing in 3yo only races are 53/316 (16.8% SR) for 150.2pts (+47.5% ROI), of which...
...those racing at trips of 8.5 to 11.5 furlongs are 20/118 (17% SR) for 109.6pts (+92.9% ROI)

And the call is...a 1pt win bet on Bedrock at 6/1 BOG with Coral, who were the best priced at 5.10pm. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

SotD : Monday 08/06/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th June 2015

Despite getting beaten, I felt we got a really good run for our money from Subcontinent at Doncaster on Saturday. He seemed to run the race the way he wanted it and attempted to win it up the rail from a fair way out.

Unfortunately, he found one too good for him and we had to settle for second best, a couple of lengths adrift come the post. We did, however, once again smash the SP by taking 100/30 about an 11/8 favourite, some thing that can only lead to profit in the long run.

Subcontinent's effort rounded off a really good wekk for us, where we hit three winners and 2 runners-up from our our six selections : form I'll be looking to maintain via Monday's...

7.20 Windsor:

A Class 4 handicap over 1m2f on good to firm ground, where I've just taken 100/30 BOG about Roger Varian's 4yr old gelding Go Sakhee.

Longer-term readers of SotD (ie from 2014 and earlier) will recall that I've a bit of a soft spot for Roger Varian's runners and have (successfully!) used them for SotD in the past. The simple reason for doing this is because they make me money! At this point, I should make it clear that every selection I make for Stat of the Day is backed by me using my own cash (I was going to say hard-earned, but that might be pushing the envelope a bit! 😀 )

The above is also true for both the Double Dutch and Stat Picks, but they're a separate issue!

Anyway, back to the task in hand. I back Roger Varian's flat handicappers, because backing all of them has resulted in 101 winners from 522 bets (19.4% SR) to date and if you'd had tenner on each of them, you'd now be £940 to the good or an 18% return on stakes invested. These are excellent figures from blind backing, but if you want fewer bets from one trainer, those handicappers can be classified as follows...

  • running on good ground or quicker : 82/394 (20.8% SR) for 120.9pts (+30.7% ROI)
  • priced at 12/5 to 14/1 : 75/390 (19.2% SR) for 121.7pts (+31.2% ROI)
  • competing at Classes 4 to 6 : 70/283 (24.7% SR) for 94pts (+33.2% ROI)
  • running at trips of 9 to 12.5 f : 49/215 (22.8% SR) for 106.1pts (+49.3% ROI)
  • here at Windsor : 8/25 (32% SR) for 18.2pts (+72.8% ROI)

As you can see, the stats are pretty consistent throughout with healthy strike rates and good profits / ROIs. You can mix and match the above to create your own little micro-systems, or you could stipulate that all criteria be fulfilled before making a bet. If that's the way you want to play it, I can tell you that...

Roger Varian's Class 4 to 6 flat handicappers running over 9f to 12.5f on good ground or quicker at odds of 12/5 to 14/1 are 26/76 (34.2% SR) for 119.5pts (+157.2% ROI) with a 3/7 (42.9% SR) record here at Windsor producing 13.7ps (+195.7% ROI).

One of those Windsor winners was today's pick Go Sakhee, who won over course and distance this time last year on his very first attampt at today's trip, where his record now reads 153123. He closed last season out with a 6 lengths victory in a Ripon handicap before going down by just a head on his final run of 2014 at Sandown.

He was beaten by less than two lengths last time out (3 weeks ago at Leicester), but looked like he needed the run after 8 months off the track. As well as stripping fitter for having had the run and enough time to get over it, the booking of Ryan Moore for a rare ride (2 wins from just 10 rides on Roger's horses to date!) is definitely a positive move to me.

No disrespect intended to Freddie Tylicki who is 3123 on the horse, but Ryan is expected to eke a bit more out of Go Sakhee on a track he rides well in similar conditions to this evening. Closer analysis of Ryan's stats reveal that since the start of the 2011 campaign, he has ridden 16 winners from 50 (32% SR) runners priced at 2/1 to 10/1 in Class 4 handicaps here at Windsor, generating 32.5pts (+65% ROI) profits in the process.

Hills are currently offering a best-priced 100/30 BOG about Go Sakhee with 3/1 BOG generally available. Do check that's still the case by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.20 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2014

Right of Appeal was, at 6/4, a fairly well-beaten (9 lengths) third of just four runners in a race decimated by non-runners, as five horses ducked this one.

Whether the presence of the missing runners would have affected the way the race unfolded isn't clear and probably isn't worth speculating upon either, so we'll move swiftly on towards Tuesday's selection which runs in the...

3.30 Yarmouth:

Where Ryan Moore rides James Tate's 5/2 BOG, 2 yr old handicap debutante, Lady Moscou.

James Tate has already begun to develop a knack for getting his handicappers to win at the first time of asking, despite him being relatively new to the training scene. This is particularly the case if there's a bit of money around for his runners, as those sent off between 2/1 and 9/2 have gone on to win 8 of 26 races.

This 30.8% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 11.5pts at an ROI of 44.2%, with his 2 yr olds providing the bulk of the winners  and more than all of that profit. To date, his juveniles have won 5 of 11 handicap debuts (45.5% SR) and the 14.5pts profits from those runners is the equivalent of 132% of all stakes invested.

I'm also very happy to see the talented Ryan Moore in the saddle, because he is developing a bit of an understanding with the Tate runners and has, to date, won on seven occasions from just 17 rides: a strike rate of 41.2%.

In handicaps alone, Ryan is 6/8 (75%) on the Tate horses for level stakes profits of 5.7pts (+71.2% ROI) and that strike rate is mirrored here at Yarmouth, where the duo have a 3/4 record for 4.04pts (+101.1% ROI) profit.

Overall James Tate has had 5 winners from 12 Yarmouth handicaps this year with the 2.7pts profit equating to 22.6% of all stakes with a 5/5 record below 9/2. This 1005 record from the more fancied runners has yielded 9.7pts at an ROI of 194.2%.

Ryan Moore is actually 19/63 (30.2% SR) at Yarmouth over the last two seasons (11/32 this year) in all races at the track, whilst in handicap races only he is 12/42 (28.6% SR) in the last two years and 8/23 this season. And like James Tate, he is most profitable at the sharper end of the market, especially below 9/2. Below that price he is 12/27 (44.4% SR) here in the last couple of seasons for level stakes profits of 9.1pts (+33.5% ROI).

Lady Moscou comes here off the back of having won once from five starts with three narrow defeats as a runner-up (0.75L, 0.75L & 0.5L, all staying on). The only blot on her record so far is a 5th of 7 at Sandown two starts ago, but that was a Listed race to be fair and yet she was still only beaten by four lengths.

She has shaped like she needs further and her breeding would tend back up this assertion, so I'm expecting her to be more suited by this step up to a mile today. At 5/2 BOG, she's at the sharper end of where we like to play at SotD, but there could well be some value left in that price and I feel she'd be a lot shorter, but for the presence of a 6/4 favourite, for whom I think this race might just have come too soon.

So, the play today is a 1pt win bet on Lady Moscou at 5/2 BOG. I've got on with SkyBet, using last week's free bet token, but at least two other firms are matching this price, as you'll see when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.30 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

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Stat of the Day, 29th August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2014

A poor show from Taqneen at Ffos Las yesterday indeed, as he folded quite tamely to finish stone last of 10 runners.

We backed him at 5's, he opened at 4's and ran at 5's, so even nothing there to shout about.

Last August was one of only two unprofitable months in the last year for SotD and this month has proved "challenging" once again, but I've still two opportunities remaining, the first of which runs in the...

4.45 Sandown:

...a Class 4 handicap for three year olds over ten furlongs, where Ryan Moore rides Sir Michael Stoute's handicap debutant Savant, who steps up in trip from a mile for this contest. All of those snippets of information are relevant to today's selection, so let's break it down.

1. Sir Michael Stoute has won 26 of 108 (24.1%SR) races for 3yr olds only here at Sandown since 2008. The level stakes profits of 53.9pts are a whisker shy of a 50% return above stakes.

2. Ryan Moore's record in handicap races at this track is decent enough: 25 wins from 120 (20.8% SR) in the last four seasons with 16.8pts (14% ROI) from those winners.

From the 25/120 stat, we can filter down as follows...

Those sent off at 5/2 to 8/1 won 17 of 75 (22.7% SR) for 27.3pts (+36.4% ROI), of which...
...10 winners from 38 (26.3% SR) in 3yo races producing 28.3pts (+74.4% ROI) profit, from which...
... 5 winners came from the 17 horses trained by Sir Michael with that 29.4% strike rate bringing in 13.4pts profit at an ROI of 78.9%.

3. In UK flat handicaps since the start of the 2011 campaign, 3 yr old horses who stepped up in trip by two furlongs after being unplaced last time out, went on to win 132 of 834 (15.8% SR) of the longer races with the 221.5pts profit equating to some 25.4% of stakes. Those figures are based on 1pt level stakes with a 14/1 cut off point.

From those 834 sub-14/1 runners, those running at odds of 5/2 to 8/1 won 84 of 396 (21.2% SR) for 72.2pts (+18.2% ROI).

4. And finally, Sir Michael Stoute isn't averse to stepping his runners up in trip for their handicap debut and 23 winners from 105 efforts since 2009 says it works for him. This 21.9% strike rate has produced 22.9pts profit at an ROI of 21.8% to date.

Savant has shown some promise in three maidens so far, despite failing to even make the frame. He proved he could handle soft ground when fourth on his racing debut over course and distance three months ago and caught the eye when fifth of fourteen at Kempton over a mile  just over three weeks ago.

That 1m trip seemed a little sharp for him and he should relish both the step back up in trip, but also the softer ground on offer today. Despite finishing 5th that day, he was less than 2.5 lengths adrift at the finish. He was 1.75 lengths behind 3rd placed Above The Rest who subsequently reappeared at Nottingham a fortnight ago to make all in a five-length victory.

His breeding suggests Savant will get 1m2f and he seems the typical Stoute handicap improver, so I'm happy enough to propose a 1pt win bet on Savant at 11/2 BOG. That price is available at both Boylesports and BetVictor and I've gone with the latter, purely because their site is a bot more user-friendly!

You can, of course, use any bookie you like and you can find all their offered odds when you...

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Stat of the Day, 5th July 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th July 2014

Every man and his dog wanted to back Enquiring on Friday evening and we were all ultimately very disappointed by the way he folded very tamely a furlong from home.

That said, I hope some of you took my later advice and didn't back it, once the price became ridiculously short.

I'd like to remind you all of my attitude towards this SotD daily service. Yes, I want the horses to win, but they have to also offer some value. I took 9/2 about Enquiring, which I felt was a fair price. At his SP of 5/2 I wouldn't have been interested.

The records, however, will show a 1pt loss, irrespective of any discussion about odds. I've not been too impressed with the performances of my runners so far this month and I aim to set things straight in today's......

1.30 Sandown

Where I've just taken 4/1 BOG about Sir Michael Stoute's filly Royal Seal, who will be reunited with jockey Ryan Moore this afternoon.

Both the trainer (21.6% SR) and the jockey (21.9% SR) have performed really well here at Sandown over the last few years and both come here in generally good form. Sir Michael's horses are 6/21 in the last fortnight, whilst Ryan Moore is 6/17 in the last week alone.

Royal Seal was a winner two starts ago, before being raised to Class 2, which she found difficult and now drops back a grade to C3. Over the last four years, Sir Michael is 17 from 46 (37% SR) for 28.5pts (+62% ROI) profit with horses dropping down in class and priced at 6/1 or shorter.

When she won at Yarmouth two starts ago, that was a 7f contest, but her latest saw her run over an inadequate 5f and although she didn't get the run of the race and was outpaced at times, she stayed on well to get within 2.5 lengths of the winner. She is upped in trip today back to her preferred 7 furlongs and if we look at other 3yr olds stepping up in trip on the back of an unplaced run, we see the following...

126 of 801 (15.7%) 3 yr olds have won handicap races when stepped up by 2 furlongs and priced below 12/1 and who were unplaced last time out. The 126 winners have produced an overall profit of 185.9pts, or 23.2% of stakes.

Just over half of those runners competed at trips of 10f or shorter with 67 of 405 (16.5% SR) proving successful and recording profits of 140pts (+34.6% ROI) in the process.

And finally (from a stats point of view), Ryan Moore takes the ride again today, after being on board when Royal Seal won that maiden at Yarmouth, but he wasn't in the saddle last time out. Ryan is certainly one of the best around, so there's no insult intended when I suggest he might get a bit more out of this horse today.

In fact, over the 6 last seasons, when Ryan has ridden a Stoute-trained horse that he didn't ride last time out, but did ride 2 starts ago, he has 34 times of the 127 occasions he has been reunited with a horse he missed LTO. 34 from 127 is a 26.8% strike rate and has generated 65.4pts (+51.5% ROI) profit.

So, in short without any more numbers (!) we've a horse with proven form at the trip ridden by an inform jockey who has ridden her to victory previously. The jockey goes well here, as does the trainer in general and the trainer's yard is also in decent form.

All of which suggests we've a good chance of collecting from a 1pt win bet on Royal Seal at 4/1 BOG. I've placed my bet with Bet365, but I know of at least four other firms currently matching this price, as you'll see for yourself, if you just...

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