Tag Archives: Ruth Carr

Stat of the Day, 12th August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th August 2014

Medam was a cracking E/W bet on Monday, as she just about managed to hold on to 2nd place by a nose at odds of 13/2.

Unfortunately, I'd backed her win only at only just above half of that price, such was the late drift away from her in the market after the opening show on course. She opened up at 4/1 before being sent off 2.5pts longer and initially she went well enough, leading with less than a furlong to go.

That, however, was as good as it got for her/us, as she faded very quickly and had no answer to the finishing power of Imaginary who swept her on the way to a fairly comfortable 4 lengths victory.

The defeat aside, the new surface at Wolverhampton looked decent and initial reports from the jockeys were favourable, which can only be a good thing.

My own quest for a "good thing" for Tuesday takes us North for the...

4.25 Carlisle:

Where, on another tricky day for stats-based betting, I'm siding with Ruth Carr's Ellaal in this Class 5 handicap over an extended 9 furlongs and the horse is currently priced up at 5/2 BOG, which is admittedly towards the bottom end of where I like to be for SotD.

Ruth Carr has been very successful at this end of the market in recent years, so perhaps we shouldn't get too fixated on picking a fairly short one for a change. In fact, since the start of the 2011 season, 183 of her handicap entrants have been sent off in the evens to 4/1 price range and 55 (30.1% SR) of them have been returned as winners, producing level stakes profits of 59.8pts (+32.7% ROI) in the process, so perhaps the shortness in price is a good sign.

(From the 55/183 record, there has been two winners from five here at Carlisle for 5.18pts profit)

Ellaal has been kept really busy, clocking up 19 races in the last nine months, but not to the detriment of his form, as he has won five times and made the frame on another five occasions for impressive win and place strike rates. He was a course and distance winner here at Carlisle six starts (and two months) ago, whilst more recently he has run three times in the last three weeks up at Musselburgh, finishing second twice (beaten by 1.25l and 0.5l), before winning last time out (last Friday), when he made all to score by 2.5 lengths.

Over the last three seasons, horses returning to run over a course and distance at which they have previously won, have done pretty well, when the market has fancied them with a record of 16 winners from 53 (30.2% SR) in the 6/4 to 9/2 odds range. This excellent strike rate has yielded 14.4pts (627.1% ROI) profits so far and puts Ellaal's win here from June into a little more positive perspective.

Jockey Paul Mulrennan once again takes the ride (he's 3/6 aboard this horse) and he's in absolutely blistering form, having upon no less than 17 of his 47 rides in the last fortnight. he was on board Ellaal last time out, when they led from pillar to post and a quick glance at the Geegeez Pace Analysis for this race suggests there's little pace elsewhere here today. This means there's every chance of an easy uncontested lead and if he's allowed to dominate again, he's going to be difficult to catch and/or pass.

As I said earlier, it's a little shorter than usual, but there could still be some value in a 1pt win bet on Ellaal at 5/2 BOG. Those odds are from the Betfair Sportsbook, but can also be found at Paddy Power, whilst 9/4 BOG is the next best, as can be seen if you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.25 Carlisle

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Stat of the Day, 16th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th May 2014

Intense Feeling was an 11/4 success on Thursday to get us back amongst the winners.

She hit the front with over a furlong to go and jockey Noel Garbutt kept her up to her work to ensure she got home relatively comfortably by three parts of a length.

South Lanarkshire is the next port of call on the SotD tour, as we head back into Scotland to tackle the...

8.40 Hamilton:

A Class 6 handicap over six furlongs, where I'm siding with Ruth Carr's Hab Reeh for this competitive-looking contest.

Hab Reeh is a former course and distance winner and comes here on the back of a win at Newcastle over today's trip seventeen days ago and now seeks to add to Mrs Carr's long list of handicap winners.

Over the last five years, Ruth Carr has seen 948 of her horses sent off at SPs of between 5/2 & 12/1 in handicap contests: a very large sample size for me to work with! A more than reasonable 140 of these runners (14.8% SR) have gone on to win and if you'd wagered £10 on each of them, you'd currently be £1143.70 to the good, a return of just over 12% above stakes.

Mrs Carr has a slightly better record on lower grade handicaps under the same restrictions as above with 123 winners from 784 runners representing a strike rate of 15.7% and the resultant 145.63pts profit is the equivalent of 18.6% of stakes.

Over the last four years, Ruth has sent out 26 former C&D winners in the 5/2 to 9/1 odds range on the back of a win (anywhere over any trip!) last time out and seven of the twenty-six (26.9% SR) were victorious, netting profits of 16.5pts (+63.4% ROI).

Hamilton is also one of those courses where former course and distance winners do well especially when returning to the track in decent form. In fact, horses who won their last race prior to a return to Hamilton and who were already former course and distance winners, have won 22 of 87 races over the last four years with that 25.3% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 39.9pts or 45.9% of stakes.

From those 87 runners, 66 were sent off in the 5/2 to 12/1 price range and 17 of the 66 (25.8% SR) went on to win, resulting in 46.5pts profit, an ROI of 70.4%.

Hab Reeh roared back to form last time out at Newcastle winning by more than two lengths after controlling the race from more than a furlong from home. He could probably have won by further if desired and although a 6lb rise is probably fair, I'm not sure it will be enough to stop him going in again.

He does seem to be something of a "confidence" horse who goes through phases of not looking like winning, but when he does win, he tends to run well again next time out and even if he doesn't win today, I expect him to be there or thereabouts, opening the gate for a possible E/W saver bet.

A quick look at the racecard show that 16 runners are set to go to post for this one, so we can get on board with a bookie paying out 4 places at a reasonable price and to that end I'm placing a 0.5pts E/W bet on Hab Reeh at 6/1 BOG with PP (Paddy Power), but as always I urge you to seek out the best deal for yourself. To do this, simply...

...click here for the latest betting on the 8.40 Hamilton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 19th August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th August 2013

Early to post again with this one, folks, as I'm travelling back from a few days at my parents and hoping for a good start to the new week.

Yesterday's runner pretty well summed up the torrid time I had last week here on SotD: I put Nargys up at 8/1, thinking it was a decent price, but he opened at that same price, before being sent off at 10's. He never featured nor looked like getting involved before trooping home a remote 9th of 12 runners.

It's another of Yorkshire's many tracks today, as I've a whole host of stats to support my runner in the...

4.00 Thirsk

Who is the Ruth Carr-trained Marcus Caesar.

Since the start of the 2009 season, it has been profitable to blindly back all Ruth Carr runners priced below 12/1 in handicap races. 137 winners from 887 runners = 15.45% for profits of 113.32pts = +12.8 % ROI

Mrs Carr's record during that time in handicap contests here at Thirsk is 16/113 (13.1% SR) for 46.1pts profit, a return of 40.8% and of those there were 11 winners from 36 at odds of 6/1 or under: a strike rate of 30.56% responsible for 28.6pts profit, an ROI of 79.4%.

Marcus Caesar won here over course and distance last time out and C&D winners returning to Thirsk on the back of a win have won 6 from 33 (18.2%) in the last three seasons for profits of 14.14pts (+42.8% ROI), with all six winners coming from the 26 runners priced under 12/1 in handicaps. The 21.14 pts profit generated from this 23.1% strike rate equates to some 81.3% of stakes invested.

And finally, we should note that when Mrs Carr sends a C&D winner back to that track after a win, she has a 7/31 (22.6%) record in the last three seasons with profits of 14.63 pts (+47.2%) and all seven winners came from the twenty-one runners priced between 5/2 and 9/1. That 1 in 3 ratio provided profits of 24.63pts, a 117.3% return on stakes.

The horse itself won a course and distance handicap last month to break his duck after a series of progressively improving results and the runner-up that day has since gone on to win a handicap of her own, which will hopefully stand us in good stead today.

The combination of all those stats allied to the fact our selection is as low as 4/1 in places makes me believe that a 1pt win bet on Marcus Caesar at 6/1 BOG with Paddy Power is good value today. But for your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

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Stat of the Day, 12th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 12/03/13

Stat of the Day: 12/03/13

Stat of the Day, 12th March 2013

Nothing to report from yesterday, as Rocky Bender was a non-runner. The race itself justified my thoughts that Qalinas was the danger, but that's about as involved as we got!

There is hopefully some racing taking place at Cheltenham today, I may have received the odd email or so alerting me to this, but SotD is going to attempt to fly under the radar a little bit by heading to the West Midlands for some All-Weather action. We're looking at a 13-runner, Class 5 Handicap and the trip is a shade under 6 furlongs for the...

5.50 Wolverhampton

Today's piece is going to be short and hopefully sweet. There's no reams of trainer stats, nor years of back data to wade through: today is all about one horse that seems to have "clicked" at the Dunstall Park track of late.

Hab Reeh, whose trainer Mrs Ruth Carr is pretty well-known to Geegeez readers, is today's selection. This horse has really enjoyed running here at Wolverhampton of late and today will be the 7th outing here in 2013 for this 5-year-old grey. His form here since the turn of the year makes for impressive reading at 162113. He has notched up three wins already this year and was very unlucky when finishing second in mid-January. His third place finish last time out off today's mark was by no means a poor show either. I don't think he was kept quite enough to the action that day, but managed another place finish.

His 50% strike rate here this year has generated decent profits of 3pts or 50% of stakes, whilst E/W backers have reaped the rewards too. Five E/W successes from six has given a slightly better rate of return ie 57.33% (6.88pts to be precise!)

It should be pointed out, however, that he has been ridden by apprentice/amateur jockeys during this recent run, yet today the more experienced Amy Ryan is on board. Without casting any aspersions towards the ability of Hab Reeh's previous jockeys, it is hoped that Amy's wealth of experience might just get a little more out of our selection today, as he looks to build on that creditable 3rd place off today's mark.

And that's pretty much that for today. He's in form, he likes the track and acts on it well and we're hoping the change of jockey might just squeeze a little more out of him.

There seems to be enough in the market for a safety-first approach and his placing record suggests this is the way forward too. So, the call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Hab Reeh at 7/1 BOG with Stan James, but for your preferred bookie...

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Stat of the Day, 7th August 2012

Stat of the Day 07/08

Stat of the Day 07/08

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2012

No excuses offered for yesterday's performance: I fully expected Rockweiller to at least grab a place, but he was disappointing, if the truth be told. I took 11/2 about him in the morning and he went off at 9/2. There didn't seem to be any lack of effort, but when the leaders pressed the button, he had nothing extra to give. Just looking at the fact he finished 4th doesn't tell the whole story, he was actually more than 13 lengths behind the winner.

So, today we're back on grass and heading up to North Yorkshire, where our selected jockey has developed a bit of a liking for this particular course. The race in question is a Class 5 Handicap over a trip just 8 yards shy of 6 furlongs. The ground is good to firm (firm in places) and eleven runners are due to be loaded up for the...

3.20 Catterick

Our jockey in question today is Silvestre de Souza and his record at Catterick is excellent. 50 winners from 245 rides represents a strike rate in excess of 20% and these winners have generated level stakes profits of almost 138pts at SP. That's a very healthy profit of over 56% on any stakes wagered. This career 20% strike rate has actually been at 21.3% for the last couple of years, so we're not relying on old data here to support our stats.

As it happens, Silvestre has a busy day ahead of him, the last race of the 7-race card is the only race he isn't scheduled to contest. You can make a good case for all his rides today, but the one I like the best is Ferdy in the 3.20. This horse is still unexposed in these sprint handicaps and won well here last time out (2 weeks ago) over course and distance, beating Ruth Carr's Chosen One quite comfortably in the end. Chosen One reappeared 4 days later and came home a winner!

High draws tend to fare best here over 6 furlongs and Ferdy is drawn 11 of 11 today, he was 11 of 12 last time out, so that should also count in his favour. The main challenge today is likely to come from Oakbrook, who won the second division of Ferdy's successful outing here, but that race didn't look as strong as the first division and our mount looked far more impressive.

The best price for Ferdy at the moment is 4/1 BOG with a variety of firms: you take your pick! But if you choose to leave it later, be sure to come back and...

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.20 Catterick.

PS If we look at Mr de Souza's record on horses priced 6/1 or under, we can then see his strike rate increase to an impressive 30%!