Tag Archives: Ruby Walsh

Stat of the Day, 15th February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th February 2014

A total of three non-runners yesterday saw our advised 9/2 bet on Louis Vee, finally settled at 3.15/1 after the obligatory Rule 4 deductions. Nevertheless, this was still a cracking price, as our selection won pretty comfortably in the end at measly odds of just 11/10 SP.

Netting almost three times the SP profit once again highlights the need to use the BOG bookies and the 3.15pts are most welcome, as we look to continue our recent upturn in form.

Saturdays are generally tough to call, but we think we've a decent chance of securing our hat-trick in the...

4.10 Gowran Park:

Where I'm backing Willie Mullins' 4 yr old debutante Florishwell Dete at 9/4 BOG with Stan James.

It's not often you can find a track where you can back all Willie Mullins' runners blindly and still show a profit. Just like the other powerhouses of the sport, we tend to see a high number of winners and plenty of prize money, but not generally such high strike rates nor profit percentages.

However, since the start of 2012, if you'd backed every one of his 71 runners here at Gowran Park, you'd have bagged yourself 25 winners already, a strike rate of some 35.2% and if you'd placed £10 on each of them, you'd be sitting on £905.20 profit a return on your stakes of almost 127.5%. There aren't many places where you can get returns like that from such a high-profile trainer.

Now, Willie has actually got seven runners competing on this heavy ground today, so we should expect at least two or three winners from them. All I need to do is get the right one!

Well, the ground is in his favour here: since the start of 2012, his runners have performed very well in INH races on heavy ground, as a record of 64 winners from 224 races (28.6%) will testify. Backing all of them would have seen a profit of 57.4pts to date, an ROI of 25.6% with three winners from nine here at Gowran Park.

This of course, doesn't explain fully why I'm siding with Florishwell Dete, who makes her debut for the yard today after a couple of minor races in France, winning over 11.5f last time out.

The Mullins team has a good record with horses turning out for them for the first time, providing they've not been overworked in the past. In the same time frame as above (ie since the turn of 2012), Mr Mullins has given a first outing to 123 horses, with a massive 56 (45.5% SR) of them returned as winners, generating level stakes profits of 37.6pts (+30.6% ROI) in the process.

From these 123 newcomers, we can also see that their record on soft or heavy ground reads 27 winners from 56 (48.2% SR) for 28.8pts profit (+51.4% ROI).

The last piece of reinforcement for the selection comes from retained jockey Ruby Walsh himself. Ruby doesn't ride here as often as other tracks, but an 11/34 (32.6% SR) for 16.5pts (+48.5% SR) record in recent years would suggest he knows his way around the place and he was given the choice of the two Mullins' runners in this race and he chose the debutante.

Ruby's a far better judge of a horse than I'll ever be, so I'm more than happy to back Florishwell Dete at 9/4 BOG today. That's with Stan James, as she's already dropping as low as 13/8 in places, as you'll see when you...

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Stat of the Day, 14th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2013

Magika was a nice 3/1 winner yesterday for us, despite going off at half that price on course, further highlighting the value of the early BOG prices. Martin Harley gave another account of himself at Wolverhampton last night with a well-timed ride.

He sat patiently in behind the leaders and when he asked the horse to go and win the race, she quickened readily and was comfortable in the end.

A change of tack/class today as we tackle the...

3.35 Cheltenham:

Ruby Walsh is the man to watch this afternoon, as his record at Cheltenham is amongst the best there is.

In the last 10 years he had ridden 125 winners from 579 attempts, a strike rate of 21.6%. You could have backed every single horse Ruby has ridden here and still shown a profit of 76.1pts, a return of 13.14%.

13.14% is a little lower than the usual sought out by SotD, but when it's over so many races, it just has to be respected. If we further draw down on those 579 runners, we see that 311 of them were sent off at odds between evens and 6/1 for a strike rate of 27.65%, courtesy of 86 winners. So, 53.7% of the runners provided 68.8% of the winners.

The 86/311 record has generated 73.6pts profit or 23.65% ROI. So, the general advice is to back ALL Ruby's mounts priced between evens and 6/1.

Ruby has made a change of direction of late and now spends the bulk of his riding time back in Ireland and is more of an infrequent sight at UK racecourses, so we need to kep an eye out for him popping up. He rode well at this December meeting last year with 4 winners from 8 and of the six priced between Evens and 6/1, he finished 1212P1.

He comes over for just one ride today and that itself sparks my interest, as it's a long way to come to ride a loser! The horse in question is the 3/1 shot Glen's Melody, who comes here with an excellent record of 8 wins and 3 places from her 11 starts, including back-to-back Grade 1 victories in the spring of this year, before coasting to victory on her seasonal reappearance four weeks ago.

It's not the easiest race she'll encounter, but she's a decent sort in good form, ridden by a jockey who excels at the track and as such, I'm more than happy to place a 1pt win bet on Glen's Melody at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor (reinvesting some of yesterday's winnings!), but that price is on offer in several other places, so the advice would be to...

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Stat of the Day, 7th July 2012

Stat of the Day 07/07

Stat of the Day 07/07

Stat of the Day: 7th July 2012

Yesterday's selection Chain of Events ran really well for a mile and led the pack at a decent pace, but faded away quite badly late on and could only troop home back in 8th place, some 9 lengths or so away from the winner. We did, however, manage to beat the book again, as out recommended 14/1 shot was sent out at a little over half those odds at 15/2.

With the continuing uncertainty surrounding UK racing (inspections due at Beverley & Haydock with Carlisle, Leicester & Nottingham already abandoned!), we're off across the water to County Meath today for a 2 mile 4 furlong Handicap Hurdle for 4yr olds and over. The ground is set to be heavy for the 12 runners contesting the...

6.55 Bellewstown

Trainer Tony Martin has only sent 7 NH runners to Bellewstown in the past couple of years and all of them have made the first three home, with four of them going on to actually win. Meanwhile, jockey Ruby Walsh's record at the track is almost as good and he's by far the most successful jockey at this track in recent years.

It will now come as no surprise that today's SotD horse is trained by Tony Martin and ridden by Ruby Walsh! Tony has 3 horses running today, whilst Ruby is down for 3 rides, but they only team up for the one race, where Ruby will ride our selection Redera.

Redera has a course victory under his belt and whilst not at the top of his game last time out hurdling at Aintree in April, has had a run on the flat to freshen him up. I'm not entirely convinced that he'll win today, but the trainer and jockey stats suggest a placed finish would be attainable. And if the horse runs to anything like the form he achieved in 2011 (3 hurdles wins inside 3 weeks under Ruby Walsh!), then that should be enough.

Redera is currently best priced at 11/1 (BOG, of course) with Paddy Power, so I'm taking 0.5pts E/W of that, but you can always...

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