Tag Archives: Roy Bowring

Stat of the Day, 6th February 2018

Monday's Result :

6.45 Wolverhampton : Temasek Star @ 3/1 BOG still to run Result/report to follow later...

We continue with Tuesday's...

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Foolaad @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 5f handicap on Fibresand worth £7,763 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has raced seven times in the last twelve months, winning five times and making the frame in the two defeats. During this time, has has won all four starts on the all-weather, including two here at Southwell, both over today's course and distance.

He's trained by Roy Bowring, whose all-weather record since 2013 stands at 40 winners from 359 (13.7% SR) for profits of 51.9pts (+14.4% ROI) from blindly following him. Amongst those 359 runners...

  • males are 38/255 (14.9%) for 55.2pts (+21.7%)
  • here at Southwell : 32/225 (14.2%) for 38pts (+16.9%)
  • over 5f : 6/41 (14.6%) for 49.6pts (+121%)
  • LTO Winners are 11/37 (29.7%) for 21.3pts (+57.5%)
  • and in February : 6/21 (28.6%) for 30.2pts (+144%)

...all of which apply to this horse who is...

  • 5 from 9 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3 from 5 when priced shorter than 9/2
  • 3 from 4 over this 5f trip
  • 2 from 3 over course and distance
  • 1 from under today's jockey Robert Winston

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Foolaad @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betway, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.10pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th January 2016

Tuesday's Result :

3.25 Wetherby : Throthehatch @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Led to 4th, tracked leader, mistake 3 out when every chance, weakened last)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

7.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Master of Song @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner over this trip at Southwell by 2.5 lengths just eight days ago taking his record in A/W handicaps to 5 from 28 (3 from 13 at this trip) and I've three angles to go at with this one today...

  1.  Since the start of 2012, top rated (OR) males aged 4 to 9 running over trips of 7f to 1m4f in Class 6/7 races are 95/550 (17.3% SR) for 177.8pts (+32.3% ROI) profit ie the best horses in the worst races!
  2. He's also one of my "back to form" horses. These are runners who fail to make the frame for three or more consecutive runs and then suddenly win. Once turned back out within 30 days of winning, they are 81/38/4 (21.1% SR) for 182.2pts (+47.5% ROI) when priced at 5/2 to 11/1 here at Kempton since 2008.
  3. And since 2009, Roy Bowring has used 3lb claimer jockeys sparingly well in A/W handciaps with 21 winners from 114 (18.4% SR) attempts, netting level stakes profits of 50.8pts at an ROI of 44.6%, with those priced at 2/1 to 6/1 winning 16 of 35 (45.7% SR) for 56.2pts (+160.6% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.30pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Master of Song and that's at 4/1 BOG with Paddy Power, who are currently the standout price, although 7/2 BOG is available elsewhere. Ladbrokes also offer 4/1 at the moment, but don't/won't go BOG until morning. To take your pick of the firms, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 10th April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th April 2015

Pabusar was pretty convincingly beaten at Southwell on Thursday afternoon and the late headway he made only really served to make a poor run look slightly better than it was.

After three good results, one could argue we were due a clunker and that's what we got: 6th place and beaten by a good 11 lengths or so, despite being sent off as the 5/2 favourite.

We did, as we often do, beat the market by half a that was scant reward really and I'll not be rushing out to back this one next time!

Late night action awaits us on Friday with the last race of the day aka the...

9.20 Wolverhampton:

Which is a Class 6 handicap on the Tapeta for 4yr olds and older over a trip that is technically 8.64 furlongs and where our selection, Hickster, once again looks surprisingly long at the 7/1 BOG on offer from Betfair Sportsbook.

Hickster is trained by Roy Bowring, a trainer who I do like to keep an eye on, especially on the All-Weather. Roy isn't the most high-profile, most prolific or busiest trainer on the scene, but if you'd backed every one of his runners over the last six years, you'd have made yourself as pound or two.

More specifically, 96 winners from 890 runners is a reasonable enough strike rate of 11.2%, but sticking a tenner on each of them would have given you £2730 profit, which is a return of 31.7% on top of your outlay.

In handicaps the figures are 86/741 (11.6% SR) for 254.5pts (+34.3% ROI) and more pertinently/relevant, his A/W handicap runners priced in the 2/1 to 6/1 price banding (which is where we're sure to end up!) have 30 wins from 109 (27.5% SR) for 52.6pts (+48.2% ROI) with a record reading 9/28 (32.1% SR) for 23.6pts (+84.4% ROI) here at Wolverhampton.

Hickster has won three times already from just seven efforts here at Wolverhampton and if we exclude a couple of runs at 28/1 and 33/1, where little was expected of him, his results here read 31121, the last of which was also his most recent outing when he virtually made all and just hung on to win by a short head. That was over 9.5 furlongs 18 days ago and the drop back in trip today should make his task a little easier here.

He will be partnered by Ashley Morgan who gets to use his 3lb claim and Roy Bowring is pretty good at placing claimer jockeys on his runners and in the last six years, 3lb claimers have triumphed on 19 of 104 occasions in A/W handicaps with that 18.3% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 48.2pts at an ROI of 46.4%, with those priced at 2/1 to 12/1  proving the most successful with 17 wins from 57 (29.8% SR) for 59.6pts (+104.5% ROI), of which there has been 7 winners from the 25 (28% SR) contests here at Wolverhampton, returning 37.4pts (+149.5% ROI) profit.

Hickster hasn't got the best draw, but our unique pace analysis suggests that he won't have too competition for an early lead and if allowed to dictate from the front as he did last time out, he can be difficult to catch and/or pass as he proved here almost three weeks ago.

I think there's plenty of value in that 7/1 BOG from Betfair Sportsbook, I was expecting to see him at around 9/2 if I'm honest, but...

...as always, do check that's still available by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 9.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 9th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th January 2014

Namibian was expected to come on for his reappearance last month, but once again he quickly folded and dropped out of the race with four hurdles yet to come. It was a disappointing capitulation, if truth be told and a drop to the minimum 2m trip is probably his next port of call.

The only bright spot for us after he was pulled up at 6/1, was that once again, we beat the SP with our 8/1 advice. Scant consolation, I know, but beating the book is the long-term key to success.

Short term success would also be welcome, though, so we're off to tackle the...

1.50 Southwell:

Where jockey Mark Coumbe will aim to put his 3lb claim to good use aboard the Roy Bowring-trained Maakirr, who can be backed at 7/2 BOG with Coral...

1. When using his 3lb allowance on Roy Bowring's horses priced in the Evens to 6/1 bracket, Mark Coumbe has ridden 12 winners from 30 with a further 8 horses making the frame. A 66.7% place strike rate is hugely impressive and the 40% win strike rate has yielded 34.8pts profit to date, a figure equivalent to 116% of stakes invested.

Maakirr comes here on the back of a narrow course and distance victory a week ago, where he prevailed by a nose in a Class 5 contest and now drops down a grade, but will now be top weighted (after any jockey claims) for his troubles...

2. Top weighted males running in Southwell, A/W, Class 5 or 6, 4 yo+ handicaps on the back of a run in the last 10 days when they either won or finished within a length of the winner in a race at the same grade or within one grade of today have won 40 times from 86 attempts since 2009. That 46.5% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 55.4pts, an ROI of 64.5%. I should, however, point out that those figures are based on ALL runners fitting that criteria.

If we were to be more odds-specific, the record with a 6/1 SP cap is still profitable to the tune of 39.05pts, which is a  48.8% ROI, based on a record of 38 winners from 80 (47.5% SR).

Maakirr is an offspring from the stallion Street Cry...

3. Street Cry's progeny have a 12/31 record in handicap races here at Southwell in the last couple of years. That impressive 38.7% strike rate has given rise to excellent returns: 59.4pts profit = 191.5% over stakes. The record in the evens to 6/1 price band is 10/23 (43.5% SR) for 24.7pts (+107.4% ROI) with a 3/9 record at Class 6 for 10.55pts profit.

It's a pretty competitive race here and I could probably have picked an easier one to try to get back amongst the winners, but based upon the above stats, I think there's plenty of value in this selection today. Therefore, it's a 1pt win bet on Maakirr at 7/2 BOG with Coral for me today.

I'm aware there are other bookies out there and for their best prices, you really should...

Click here for the latest betting on the 1.50 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

Here is today's racecard!

Stat of the Day, 1st August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st August 2013

It looked like we were going to record back to back successes yesterday, as So Beloved was leading well into the final furlong, but we had to eventually settle for a third place finish at 9/2. Thankfully we had not only hedged our bets and gone E/W, but we'd also got on at 17/2, a price almost double the SP.

This meant that we made a small 0.35pt profit from the race, but that helped us close July off with an overall profit of 16.48 pts for the month and a 1 in 3 strike rate..

Today's contest is a one mile, Class 5 handicap on good to soft ground. We're expecting a total of 11 runners to contest the...

4.30 Nottingham

Nottingham is another of those tracks that favours previous course and distance winners on their return, especially if they're coming back here on the back of a win last time out, irrespective of where they ran last time.

In fact the figures for 2011 to 2013 show that 35 previous C&D winners have run again here after winning last time out, with ten of them going on to notch up successive victories. That's a strike rate of some 28.6% with highly impressive profit figures of 36.46pts, an ROI of 104.2%.

Unusually those stats throw up two potential qualifiers in the same race today, as both Not Rigg and West End Lad fit the bill. Not Rigg won over C&D last time out almost four weeks ago, but that was his first win at the ninth attempt and will need a career best performance to take this race. West End Lad, on the other hand, is a veteran now at the age of 10 and today will be his 97th race. He has been very profitable to back throughout his career, winning 17 of his previous 96 races (S/R = 17.7%), generating profits of 114.8pts, or 119.6% of stakes.

West End Lad is also a bit of a course and distance specialist, with six wins and two places from sixteen runs over a mile here. A 50% place strike is impressive enough, but to actually win 37.5% of all attempts over any specified course and distance is phenomenal. Incidentally those six wins have helped him achieve level stakes profits of 47.21pts (ROI = +295%)

Our selection will be ridden by 3lb claimer Mark Coumbe today and West End Lad's trainer Roy Bowring is one of the game's leading exponents in the art of booking a claiming jockey to good effect. Since 2010, Roy has a 13 from 31 record when using a jockey with a 3lb claim on horses priced at 6/1 or under, that's a strike rate of 41.9% for profits of 50.6pts (+163.2% ROI), whilst that record reads 9/15 for 40.6pts (S/R 60%, ROI 271%) when Mark Coumbe is that 3lb claimer.

Here's the racecard for today's contest.

West End Lad was a winner here just 13 days ago and although he gone up the ratings by 7lbs to run off a mark of 72, the jockey can relieve him of three of those pounds, whilst it should be noted that he won off a mark of 77 last year and was also placed off 85 just over a year ago, so this isn't beyond him today. He'll enjoy the underfoot cut in the ground, having already won twice and been placed once in six races on good to soft ground.

BetVictor are currently offering 5/1 BOG about West End Lad and I'm happy enough to take that, As I feel he may well shorten to around 4/1, as the day progresses. No E/W hedging/fudging today tough: the call is a 1pt win bet on West End Lad at 5/1 BOG with BetVictor, but you can see what your bookie is offering if you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.30 Nottingham

***Don't forget, we offer a full racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.***

Stat of the Day, 16th April 2013

Stat of the Day: 16/04/13

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th April 2013

A bit frustrating yesterday as our 12/1 pick, Choral Festival, was well backed into 8/1 and travelled really well into the race. Alas, when Willie Twiston-Davies asked her to pick up, she didn't find much at all, and was beaten a short head and a neck out of third. It was probably race fitness (or lack of) which told, and that was the danger. She's definitely a mare to keep onside throughout the Windsor season, as she absolutely loves it there, and is versatile as regards trip and ground.

The beach for us this afternoon, and a low grade handicap, the...

5.00 Southwell

A trainer in white hot form just now is Roy Bowring. He's not one of the higher profile handlers by any stretch of the imagination, but he has his share of winners, many of them here at Southwell.

In the last couple of weeks, Bowring has run eleven horses. Five have won and another three have placed. Today, he saddles two: one in the maiden at 2.10 (Solarmaite, has a fair chance), and Xpres Maite here.

Xpres Maite is hardly a handicap plot, having had 91 runs under rules, and now being a ten year old. But he's a good old stick round here, and doesn't have much to find with the favourite on slighter better terms than when they last ran.

Add in the fact that he completely missed the break that day - which, in fairness, he can do - and it was a reasonably meritorious effort. Now, let's not get carried away: this is a low grade Class 6 event at Southwell. It won't take much winning, and Xpres Maite is proven under today's conditions and in form.

He's a general 7/1 shot, Best Odds Guaranteed, and that'll do for me.

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.00 Southwell

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2012

Stat of the Day: 20th July 2012

'Only' third yesterday on a horse advised win only with Shesha Bear. A ride that can best be described as ambitious didn't help, but it'll be a loser on the score card despite a fair number of you backing it each way.

Today, I'm hitting the 'randomizer' button (one of my favourite buttons in truth), as there's nothing which stands out. So I've headed for Sherwood Forest or thereabouts, and the…

5.15 Nottingham

There are eight runners contesting this class 4 handicap over a mile on soft ground, and the one which I'm interested in is a price. A big price. Which means he might well run last!

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

His trainer, Roy Bowring, has a great record at the track, especially with his older horses. In fact, since 2008, his four-year-olds and up at the track have registered twelve wins from 55 runs, for a profit of 66.25 units!

Another eight were placed, and the each way profit from backing these horses amounted to 74.76 points, at SP.

This gives me a bit of confidence to nominate the nine year old (!), West End Lad. His recent form figures of 999 might give a clue to the fact that we could need the help of the emergency services to get him home... but in fact, if we dig a little deeper, there are reasons for a shard of optimism to pierce the dark cloak of uncertainty. (Note to self, leave the poetry to poets, especially early in the morning).

Why such optimism? Well, he's a course and distance winner. In fact, he's a FIVE TIMES course and distance winner.

He's also won on soft ground twice, and at Southwell - which I think rides like soft ground - twice.

And he's won this year, back in March, from a rating of 77. That was just six runs ago, and he was 33/1 that day. Since then, he's run a fine third of sixteen off his revised mark of 85. And then, poorer runs of 5th, 9th, 9th, 9th.

The last of those runs was in the Carlisle Bell, a far more competitive race than this, where he was drawn on completely the wrong side.

Back down to a mark of 79, the same as his highest winning rating (achieved as recently as last December), and on his favoured Nottingham strip, I'm happy to put up West End Lad each way, at BOG odds of... 33/1 ???!!!

That price probably won't last, so do…

Click here for the latest odds for the 5.15 Nottingham.