Monday's pick was...
7.05 Pontefract : Kinks @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 4/1 (Close up, ridden 2f out, weakened approaching final furlong)
Tuesday's pick runs in the...
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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Singing The Blues @ 7/2
...in a 13-runner (was 14 originally), Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Soft (was originally Good!) ground worth £4075 to the winner...
Well, on a mediocre-looking day of racing that hasn't thrown out too many of interest from a statistical viewpoint, I'm siding with an in-form horse ridden by a less than famous jockey who does well at the lower end of the spectrum...
We'll start with our 4 yr old gelding whose best finish in his first 8 runs was a 3rd place on his seventh outing, but in his last seven runs has finished 1112212 to take his career tally to a far more respectable/palatable 4 from 15 and he was only beaten by Nuit St Georges last time out and that horse has since stepped up two levels to land a Class 3 handicap at Goodwood two days ago.
Of our boy's 4 from 15 record, the following are relevant today...
- 4/8 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
- 4/9 as a 4 yr old
- 4/12 in handicaps
- 3/7 as a favourite
- 2/2 under jockey Rob Hornby
- and 2/4 over trips of 1m3.5f/1m4f
Rob Hornby isn't the most well-known jockey out there and certainly doesn't get many chances to land the big prizes, but he's one I keep an eye on, partly as he's a distant relative of mine but mainly because he's very good at getting results in racing's lower reaches.
Numerically, I'm referring to his 47 wins from 365 rides (12.9% SR) in Class 5/6 flat handicaps at trips up to 1m6f, which would have netted you £2476 profit (+67.8% ROI) had you backed them all blindly to a £10 level stake, from which he is...
- 39/287 (13.6%) for 284.7pts (+99.2%) in bigger (ie 8-15 runners) fields
- 24/182 (13.2%) for 154.5pts (+84.9%) at Class 5
- and 4/29 (13.8%) for 51.3pts (+176.9%) here at Salisbury
...whilst more generally, he is 7/27 (25.9% SR) for 34.7pts (+128.6% ROI) when riding for trainer Rod Millman and that includes the following of note/relevance today...
- 6/19 (31.6%) for 38.4pts (+202%) in handicaps
- 6/19 (31.6%) for 38.4pts (+202%) on 3/4 yr olds
- 5/7 (71.4%) for 14.8pts (+211%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
- 5/14 (35.7%) for 29.1pts (+208.2%) on males
- and 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.15pts (+203%) at 1m3.5f to 1m6f
...from which the Hornby/Millman partnership is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 12.43pts (+207.2% ROI) with 3/4 yr old male handicappers priced at 4/1 and shorter and these include 2 from 2 on Singing The Blues and 2 from 2 at 1m3.5f to 1m6f (both on Singing The Blues!)...
...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Singing The Blues @ 7/2 which was available from Betfair, Hills & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!