Tag Archives: Rod Millman

Stat of the Day, 11th June 2019

Monday's pick was...

7.05 Pontefract : Kinks @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 4/1 (Close up, ridden 2f out, weakened approaching final furlong)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Singing The Blues @ 7/2

...in a 13-runner (was 14 originally), Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Soft (was originally Good!) ground worth £4075 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, on a mediocre-looking day of racing that hasn't thrown out too many of interest from a statistical viewpoint, I'm siding with an in-form horse ridden by a less than famous jockey who does well at the lower end of the spectrum...

We'll start with our 4 yr old gelding whose best finish in his first 8 runs was a 3rd place on his seventh outing, but in his last seven runs has finished 1112212 to take his career tally to a far more respectable/palatable 4 from 15 and he was only beaten by Nuit St Georges last time out and that horse has since stepped up two levels to land a Class 3 handicap at Goodwood two days ago.

Of our boy's 4 from 15 record, the following are relevant today...

  • 4/8 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 4/9 as a 4 yr old
  • 4/12 in handicaps
  • 3/7 as a favourite
  • 2/2 under jockey Rob Hornby
  • and 2/4 over trips of 1m3.5f/1m4f

Rob Hornby isn't the most well-known jockey out there and certainly doesn't get many chances to land the big prizes, but he's one I keep an eye on, partly as he's a distant relative of mine but mainly because he's very good at getting results in racing's lower reaches.

Numerically, I'm referring to his 47 wins from 365 rides (12.9% SR) in Class 5/6 flat handicaps at trips up to 1m6f, which would have netted you £2476 profit (+67.8% ROI) had you backed them all blindly to a £10 level stake, from which he is...

  • 39/287 (13.6%) for 284.7pts (+99.2%) in bigger (ie 8-15 runners) fields
  • 24/182 (13.2%) for 154.5pts (+84.9%) at Class 5
  • and 4/29 (13.8%) for 51.3pts (+176.9%) here at Salisbury

...whilst more generally, he is 7/27 (25.9% SR) for 34.7pts (+128.6% ROI) when riding for trainer Rod Millman and that includes the following of note/relevance today...

  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 38.4pts (+202%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 38.4pts (+202%) on 3/4 yr olds
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 14.8pts (+211%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 29.1pts (+208.2%) on males
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.15pts (+203%) at 1m3.5f to 1m6f

...from which the Hornby/Millman partnership is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 12.43pts (+207.2% ROI) with 3/4 yr old male handicappers priced at 4/1 and shorter and these include 2 from 2 on Singing The Blues and 2 from 2 at 1m3.5f to 1m6f (both on Singing The Blues!)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Singing The Blues @ 7/2 which was available from Betfair, Hills & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Salisbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.45 Chelmsford : Hard Taskmaster @ 3/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd approaching final furlong, led entering final furlong, soon clear, winning by 2.75L) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Master Carpenter @ 5/1 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1f on Soft ground, worth £8022 to the winner...

This 7 yr old is admittedly on a fairly lengthy losing run (but as we know, they all end eventually!), but showed signs of a return to some semblance of form when possibly a little unlucky not to have least made the frame over further than at Newbury five days ago.

He does look well suited/handicapped today running off a mark of 85 in a Class 4 contest on Soft ground, considering his last win came off 95 on Soft at Class 2 and with today's conditions in mind, it's worth noting that to date...

  • four of his five career wins have come within 30 days of his last run
  • 3 of those 5 wins were on ground with soft in the going description
  • he has won one Listed race and 3 at Class 2
  • stays 1m2.5f, so stamina not a concern

Having checked the market at 8.30am, it's quite possible that he'll go off as favourite and it's a common thought that backing favourites is an easy route to the poor house and whilst that is true backing them blindly, the opposite is the case with runners trained by Rod Millman, whose horses sent off with a favourite tag are 77 from 244 (31.6% SR) for 41.7pts (+17.1% ROI), from which Class 4 runners are 14/39 (35.9%) for 9.5pts (+24.4%) and Soft ground runners are 7/24 (29.2%) for 1.55pts (+6.5%).

Another positive factor for me here is the booking of Oisin Murphy in the saddle, I mentioned yesterday that he was riding well right now, an observation backed up by his 8 winners from 34 (23.5% SR) over the past week, including 2 winners and a place from 5 rides at Chelmsford last night which kicked off by him delivering a well-timed 7/2 winner for SotD!

Oisin also has a good record when riding for Rod Millman, winning 17 of 104 (16.4% SR) for profits of 100.4pts (+96.5% ROI), from which...

  • in handicaps : 16/87 (18.4%) for 89.3pts (+102.6%)
  • male runners are 15/79 (19%) for 92.3pts (+116.8%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m2f : 13/77 (16.9%) for 100.4pts (+130.4%)
  • on the Flat : 12/74 (16.2%) for 78.8pts (+106.4%)
  • and at Class 4 : 5/35 (14.3%) for 21pts (+60%)

AND...from the above... O. Murphy + R. Millman + Males + 5f to 10f + Flat handicaps = 8/43 (18.6% SR) for 61.8pts (+143.7% ROI). I'm acutely aware that this stat also fits Handytalk in the 3.05 race here today, but I don't think he's as likely to win as our pick, but I wouldn't put you off a small E/W punt if you liked the look of it...

...leaving us with... a 1pt win bet on Master Carpenter @ 5/1 BOG , a price offered by over half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Tuesday evening, whilst Bet365 were slightly longer at 11/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

3.25 Haydock : Heartache @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 6/1 (Close up, pushed along over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Next up is Monday's...

5.35 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG 

An 11-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 3yo over 5f on polytrack worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding was a winner last time out when scoring at Bath on his first crack at this 5f trip. Now I appreciate that he's making his A/W debut today, but his trainer Rod Millman is a pretty good judge about which of his horses would go well here at Chelmsford, after saddling up 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) for profits of 13.83pts (+57.6% ROI) at this venue to date.

Amongst those runners...

  • males are 4/18 (22.2%) for 13.43pts (+74.6%)
  • those last seen 16-25 days earlier are 3/5 (60%) for 15.29pts (+305.8%)
  • this year = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.7pts (+456.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 1/2 (50%) for 4.41pts (+220.5%)

Speaking of LTO winners, Rod's record with these since the start of 2016 stands at 16 winners from 65 (24.6% SR) for profits of 25.82pts (+39.7% ROI), from which...

  • handicappers are 16/57 (28.1%) for 33.82pts (+59.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.3pts (+60.5%)
  • in 3yo races : 5/17 (29.4%) for 14.2pts (+83.5%)
  • and at Class 6 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 8.4pts (+119.8%)

AND...it's also worth noting that since the start of 2013, Rod MIllman's LTO winners who last ran in the previous 25 days at the same class and distance as their follow-up effort are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 20.7pts (+147.9% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • handicappers at 7 from 13 (53.9%) for 21.7pts (+166.9%)
  • Class 6 runners at 6 from 9 (66.6%) for 15.64pts (+173.8%)
  • and 3 yr olds are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.05pts (+35.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG  which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SunBets at 8.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.20 Doncaster : Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, kept on same pace, no chance with front pair when lost 3rd well inside final furlong)

We start the new week with Monday's...

4.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Airshow @ 7/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 4,  5.5f Flat Handicap (3yo) on good to firm (good in places) ground worth £5387 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has a record in handicaps reading 3311 and therefore comes here on a hat-trick after a win at Kempton 24 days ago. No prior run at 5.5f, but he has two wins at 6f, he also has a runner-up finish and a win from two races with today's jockey Oisin Murphy, he's a former Class 3 winner and when ditching the hood (0 from 6 with it), he has 2 wins and a place from three runs.

Trainer Rod Millman + LTO winners + 2016-18 = 16/61 (26.2% SR) for 29.8pts (+48.9% ROI) from which handicappers are 16/54 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+68.2%), including...

  • 11-45 days since last run : 15/46 (32.6%) for 33.4pts (72.6%)
  • at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 16/45 (35.6%) for 45.8pts (+101.8%)
  • on the Flat (turf) : 12/43 (27.9%) for 17.8pts (+41.4%)
  • on Good/Good to Firm ground : 10/31 (32.3%) for 18.6pts (+60%)
  • over trips shorter than 9f : 11/26 (42.3%) for 38.7pts (+148.7%)
  • 3 yr olds  : 7/20 (35%) for 15.3pts (+76.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/19 (21.1%) for 5.67pts (+29.9%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 3/11 (27.3%) for 4.9pts (+44.6%)
  • those ridden by Oisin Murphy are 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.2pts (+135.3%)
  • and here at Bath : 1/3 (33.3%) for 2.72pts (+90.7%)

And speaking of Bath handicaps, Rod's overall record in those stands at 13/74 (17.6% SR) for 75.9pts (+102.6% ROI) since the start of 2014, from which...

  • those last seen 11-45 days earlier are 10/52 (19.2%) for 43.4pts (+83.4%)
  • males are 9/39 (23.1%) for 44.3pts (+113.5%)
  • in May : 3/16 (18.75%) for 8.78pts (+54.9%)
  • and at Class 4 : 2/10 (20%) for 3.27pts (+32.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Airshow @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Sunday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!