Tuesday's Result :
4.15 Hexham: The Bishop @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 2/1 (With leaders, led 3 out, ridden and headed before last, soon no impression with front pair, lost 3rd closing stages)
Wednesday's runner goes in the...
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Umberto D'Olivate @ 7/2 BOG
He stays the trip and has won on this track. He's 2 from 4 on heavy ground and 2 from 4 in this grade. All 4 of his wins to date have come from 14 runs after a break of 15 to 45 days and from 12 races of 10 runners or less (he's 2/2 in fields of less than 6 runners). He's also 4/13 without headgear.
He finished a very creditable third on his only previous visit to Exeter, when beaten by just two lengths at a higher grade off a mark some 15lbs higher than today and will look to improve upon trainer Robert Walford's already decent record in NH handicaps.
That record reads as 24 winners from 105 (22.9% SR) for 25.5pts (+24.3% ROI) in NH handicaps since the start of 2013 with horses priced at 10/1 and shorter. With today's race in mind, those 105 runners are...
- 23/94 (24.5% SR) for 23.4pts (+24.9%ROI) from male runners
- 20/77 (26% ) for 29.7pts (+38.5% ROI) from those in the top 5 LTO
- 20/69 (29% SR) for 36.2pts (+52.4% ROI) from those last seen 11 to 45 days ago
- 12/60 (20% SR) for 10.6pts (+17.7% ROI) on soft/heavy ground
- 14/54 (25.9% SR) for 22.4pts (+41.5% ROI) at Class 4
- 11/37 (29.7% SR) for 25.6pts (+69.3% ROI) from those rated (OR) 98 to 115
- 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 10.4pts (+57.7% ROI) here at Exeter.
And more generally, since 2008, NH heavy ground handicappers with 2 heavy ground wins from 5 or less attempts are 90/563 (16% SR) for 193.7pts (+34.4% ROI), with...
- 8 to 11 yr olds winning 454 of 327 (16.5% SR) for 241.7pts (+73.9% ROI)
- those running in fields of 5 to 9 runners are 63/322 (19.6% SR) for 87.3pts (+27.1% ROI)
- and those racing over 2m7.5f to 3m2f have won 34 of 178 (19.1% SR) for 10.7pts (+62.2%ROI)
and finally...8-11 yr olds in fields of 5 to 9 runners over 2m5.5f to 3m2f are 24/79 (309.4% SR) for 116.5pts (+147.5% ROI)
So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Umberto D'Olivate at 7/2 BOG with either Bet365 or Paddy Power. Betway also offer the same price, but don't/won't go BOG until the morning and to see a fuller overview of the market...
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