Tag Archives: Robert Walford

Stat of the Day, 30th March 2016

Tuesday's Result :

4.15 Hexham: The Bishop @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 2/1 (With leaders, led 3 out, ridden and headed before last, soon no impression with front pair, lost 3rd closing stages)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

3.40 Exeter:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Umberto D'Olivate @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

He stays the trip and has won on this track. He's 2 from 4 on heavy ground and 2 from 4 in this grade. All 4 of his wins to date have come from 14 runs after a break of 15 to 45 days and from 12 races of 10 runners or less (he's 2/2 in fields of less than 6 runners). He's also 4/13 without headgear.

He finished a very creditable third on his only previous visit to Exeter, when beaten by just two lengths at a higher grade off a mark some 15lbs higher than today and will look to improve upon trainer Robert Walford's already decent record in NH handicaps.

That record reads as 24 winners from 105 (22.9% SR) for 25.5pts (+24.3% ROI) in NH handicaps since the start of 2013 with horses priced at 10/1 and shorter. With today's race in mind, those 105 runners are...

  • 23/94 (24.5% SR) for 23.4pts (+24.9%ROI) from male runners
  • 20/77 (26% ) for 29.7pts (+38.5% ROI) from those in the top 5 LTO
  • 20/69 (29% SR) for 36.2pts (+52.4% ROI) from those last seen 11 to 45 days ago
  • 12/60 (20% SR) for 10.6pts (+17.7% ROI) on soft/heavy ground
  • 14/54 (25.9% SR) for 22.4pts (+41.5% ROI) at Class 4
  • 11/37 (29.7% SR) for 25.6pts (+69.3% ROI) from those rated (OR) 98 to 115
  • 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 10.4pts (+57.7% ROI) here at Exeter.

And more generally, since 2008, NH heavy ground handicappers with 2 heavy ground wins from 5 or less attempts are 90/563 (16% SR) for 193.7pts (+34.4% ROI), with...

  • 8 to 11 yr olds winning 454 of 327 (16.5% SR) for 241.7pts (+73.9% ROI)
  • those running in fields of 5 to 9 runners are 63/322 (19.6% SR) for 87.3pts (+27.1% ROI)
  • and those racing over 2m7.5f to 3m2f have won 34 of 178 (19.1% SR) for 10.7pts (+62.2%ROI)

and finally...8-11 yr olds in fields of 5 to 9 runners over 2m5.5f to 3m2f are 24/79 (309.4% SR) for 116.5pts (+147.5% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Umberto D'Olivate at 7/2 BOG with either Bet365 or Paddy Power. Betway also offer the same price, but don't/won't go BOG until the morning and to see a fuller overview of the market...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Exeter

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2015

We went from the sublime of Richard Hughes' ride on Wednesday to the ridiculous of Yeeoow's disappointing performance at Nottingham on Thursday.

He set off well enough and was prominent in the early stages but faded to the extent that he was the last of the 7 runners to finish, well beaten by 14 lengths.

I'll be hoping/expecting for better on Friday in the...

3.25 Newton Abbot:

A Class 3, 5-runner handicap chase over 2m 5f on good ground where the call is a 5/2 BOG bet on Brody Bleu.

This horse has won 6 chases and a point to point over trips of 2m3f to 2m6f on a variety on ground conditions ranging from Good to Soft all the way through to Good to Firm. He was a 5/2 winner at Exeter last time out and is only rated 2lbs higher than his last win, which was his fourth in eight starts this year.

He's trained by Robert Walford, who has tasted quite a bit of success in his relatively short training career so far. In NH handicaps since the start of 2013, he has saddled up 21 winners from 96 runners (21.9% SR) for level stakes profits of 19pts at an ROI of 19.8% ROI, of which he's 2/5 for 5.75pts here at Newton Abbot.

Robert's handicap chasers are 16/46 (34.8% SR) for 22.8pts (+49.7% ROI), with his Class 3/4 runners winning 15 of 43 (34.9% SR) for 22.3pts (+51.9% ROI). Those who won last time out won again on 7 of 11 (63.6% SR) occasions for 12.75pts (+115.9% ROI).

The Walford class 3/4 handicap chasers priced at 4/6 to 8/1 are 15/36 (41.7% SR) for 29.3pts (+81.3% ROI) with LTO winners winning again 7 out of 10 times for 13.74pts profits.

Brody Bleu is in scintillating form at present finishing 23231111 this year, winning each of his last four outings. He's 6/16 over fences and conditions look ideal for him here today, as he's...

  • 4/8 on good ground
  • 5/13 under Felix de Giles
  • 2/3 at this grade
  • 1/1 here at Newton Abbot
  • 6/13 in races of 5 to 8 runners

With those conditions in place and his recent form allied to his trainer's overall record, I wouldn't be surprised to see Brody Bleu complete a 5-timer in the space of 80 days. If he does achieve the feat, then I'll be collecting another 2.5pts profit from my 5/2 BOG bet with Bet365.

There should be no problem for us all to get those odds as that price is currently available in 8 bookies as I know of, so you can either go with my choice or take your pick of the rest by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 3.25 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 5th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th May 2015

We opened our May account at the third time of asking as Mister Musicmaker was a pretty comfortable winner by three lengths going away from the pack after hitting the front with a furlong to run. It was a very pleasing performance enhanced by a fairly large drift out to an SP of 5/1, when I was happy to take 3/1.

Don't get me wrong, 5pts is very welcome, but he was never a 5/1 shot! He's also set to go again at Bath today, but I'm averse to going back to a horse again so quickly for SotD (but he could well win), so instead we're Devon-bound for the...

6.50 Exeter:

Where Robert Walford's 8yr old gelding Brody Bleu is rated a 100/30 BOG chance on his bid to land a four-timer in the space of 6 weeks in this Class 3 handicap chase over 2m 3.5f on good to firm ground.

The trainer...

...Robert Walford has a decent record in NH handicaps in his short training career to date, with 20 winners from 93 (21.5% SR) producing level stakes profits of 18.7pts at an ROI of 20.1%. He has got off to a great start to 2015 with a record of 11 winners from 32 (34.4% SR) and 23.7pts (+74% ROI) profit and his figures here at Exeter are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 6pts (+31.6% ROI)

His handicap chasers are 15/45 (33.33% SR) for 20.5pts (+45.4% ROI), of which there were 4 winners from 10 (40% SR) here at Exeter producing 15pts (+150% ROI) profit and his overall tally for 2015 so far is 9 winners from just 22 (40.9% SR) handicap chasers, generating 16.1pts (+73.1% ROI) profit.

The horse...

...Brody Bleu has won each of his last four starts, the most recent of which was at Chepstow 11 days ago over this 2m 3.5f trip at this same Class 3 level, when he stayed on well to win by four lengths. He's also a former course and distance winner here at Exeter, which is a positive.

Former Exeter C&D winners returning to this track off the back of a win (anywhere!) LTO have gone on to win 13 of 51 (25.5% SR) handicap contests since 2008, producing 44.7pts profit at an ROI of 87.6%.

Another stat in his favour is that male, Class 3 handicap chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who were winners of a handicap chase LTO in the previous 11 to 150 days won again on 118 of 552 (21.4% SR) for 178.8pts (+32.4% ROI) profit.

In addition to fitting both of those microsystems, Brody Bleu has some impressive data of his own to support his nomination...
...he's 5/15 over fences and has a 312 record here at Exeter with that win being a course and distance affair (1/2 over C&D, also third!). He's also 1/1 on good to firm ground and has finished 3111 in his four efforts at 19.5/20 furlongs so far.

He has won 5 of 11 races of 5 to 8 runners for profits of 8.1pts (+73.6% ROI) and has a record reading 112111 when sent out 11 to 16 days after his last run with those five winners rewarding his followers with 13.1pts of profit at an ROI of 218.3%!

As of 12.30 am in the early hours of Tuesday, 100/30 BOG was the best price available for Brody Bleu and my bet has been placed with BetVictor, but the same price is available with Coral, as can be seen by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 6.50 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.