Tag Archives: Richard Johnson

Stat of the Day, 28th December 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.10 Wolverhampton : Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 7/2 (Went right start, soon tracked leader, led narrowly over 1f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, no extra)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m7f on soft ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding is 4 from 9 so far and got off the mark (at just the second time of asking) over fences last time out when winning by a mere 21 lengths eighteen days ago. That was over 2m4f on heavy ground at Uttoxeter and whilst this is 3f further for his handicap debut, the ground will ride slightly easier today, plus he has stayed 3m over hurdles on soft ground, whilst Richard Johnson retains the ride today.

Our race card icons (C5) suggest that both the aforementioned jockey and the trainer, Philip Hobbs have decent records on this track, so I'll take that as read and whilst keeping today's explanation fairly simple, I'll explore two other angles briefly for you.

Firstly, people of a certain age might remember "...it's Friday, it's five to five, it's Crackerjack...". Well along those lines: "...it's Saturday, it's a handicap and it's Hobbs & Johnson!"

Basically, this trainer/jockey combo are 46 from 288 (16% SR) for 16.4pts (+5.7% ROI) backed blindly in handicaps on Saturdays over the last six years. A good strike rate that's blindly profitable is always a decent starting point for a way in and of interest from those 288 runners, we have...

  • 44/242 (18.2%) for 27.1pts (+11.2%) at odds of Evens to 10/1
  • 30/170 (17.7%) for 32.3pts (+19%) over fences
  • 24/105 (22.9%) for 58.4pts (+55.6%) from November to January
  • and 15/68 (22.1%) for 12.7pts (+18.6%) at Class 3...

...whilst chasers sent off at Evens to 10/1 during November to January are 17/53 (32.1% SR) for 66.2pts (+124.9% ROI), including 5/14 935.7%) for 19.6pts (+139.8%) at Class 3.

Secondly, as our pick is making a handicap bow, it's worth noting that Philip Hobbs is having a good year with such runners, as his handicap debutants are 8 from 20 (40% SR) for 14.56pts (+72.8% ROI) in 2019 and these include...

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 8.6pts (+61.5%) from LTO winners
  • 5/10 (50%) for 12.4pts (+124%) in fields of 10-13 runners
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 16.5pts (+235.5%) from 6 yr olds
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.8pts (+42.1%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle...

...whilst 6 yr old LTO winners in fields of 10-13 runners are 2/3 (66.6% SR) for 6.3pts (+210% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 4.50pm on Friday, although I'm on with Hills (non-BOG until raceday) at 4/1. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th November 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.50 Wincanton : Danse Idol @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Bit keen chasing leaders on inside, went 2nd 5th, not fluent next, lost 2nd after 3 out, weakening when mistake next)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The King's Baby @ 3/1 BOG 

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Mares Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?...

The horse...is an 8 yr old mare who has finished 33112 in her last five runs, so she's clearly in good nick and these include winning both her starts over fences this year. These were over today's 2m5f trip and also over 2m7f, so she shouldn't be found wanting for stamina either. Overall, she has 2 wins and a place from three efforts at today's trip.

Our trainer...is Harry Whittington, whose horses claimed 2 wins and a place from 6 attempts last week, whilst his chasers are 31 from 141 (22% SR) for 6.91pts (+4.9% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2014. As you know, I don't follow anyone blindly and always seek to improve the percentages whilst reducing the number of bets placed. Any filters imposed must be logical, of course, and with today's contest in mind, Harry's chasers are...

  • 31/118 (26.3%) for 29.91pts (+25.3%) in fields of 4-12 runners
  • 26/69 (37.7%) for 24.46pts (+35.5%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 24/82 (29.3%) for 22.85pts (+27.9%) in fields of 4-8 runners
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 29.48pts (+70.2%) in November/December
  • 10/41 (24.4%) for 5.00pts (+12.2%) at Class 3
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 15.08pts (+62.9%) in November
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 22.01pts (+115.9%) after less than three weeks rest
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 4.08pts (+136%) here at Kempton

And our jockey...Richard Johnson may never have actually ridden one of Harry's chasers before, but the pair are 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 8.73pts (+145.5% ROI) over hurdles, including 1 from 1 here at Kempton.

Richard's own record here at Kempton is good and shows 8 winners from 39 (20.5% SR) for 7.82pts (+20% ROI) in handicap chases since the start of 2014, including of relevance today...

  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 12.82pts (+37.7%) over trips of 2m2f and beyond
  • 8/32 (25%) for 14.82pts (+46.3%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 17.82pts (+61.4%) at Class 2/3
  • 7/31 (22.6%) for 11.11pts (+35.9%) on horses aged 7 or older
  • and 7/21 (33.3%) for 14.37pts (+68.4%) when sent off shorter than 6/1

...whilst on horses like The King's Baby who tick all five above boxes ie aged 7+ at sub-6/1 odds in 5-10 runner, Class 2/3 handicap chases over 2m2f and beyond, Richard Johnson is 6 from 10 (60% SR) for 20.66pts (+206.6% ROI) with two of the four losers claiming runner-up finishes...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on The King's Baby @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betway, Hills & Ladbrokes at 5.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th November 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.40 Ayr : Gold Opera @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, reminders after 11th, lost touch next, left modest 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Plumpton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sir Egbert @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Soft/Heavy ground worth £6238 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 6 yr old gelding trained by Tom Lacey and I could make this piece very short by saying just back all Tom's hurdlers for a near 20% strike rate and a near 45% return on your money, but I never advocate blind backing, so which of Tom's hurdlers in particular should we be backing?

Personally, I'd stick to those sent off at evens to 8/1 in handicaps, for they are 40 from 134 (29.9% SR) for 81.8ppts (+61.1% ROI) since the start of 2016, from which there is a myriad of profitable angles you could consider. I've done that digging for you and here are "just" ten such angles/filters, all relevant/applicable today...

  • 35/110 (31.8%) for 78.43pts (+71.3%) within 60 days of their last run
  • 21/54 (38.9%) for 49.96pts (+92.5%) n fields of 7-9 runners
  • 20/55 (36.4%) for 57.83pts (+105.1%) after 1 or 2 runs in the previous 90 days
  • 14/47 (29.8%) for 46.07pts (+98%) on Soft/Heavy ground
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 6.41pts (+18.9%) with champion jockey Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 10.31pts (+39.6%) at Class 3
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 23.39pts (+137.6%) after 1 run in the previous 90 days
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 10.53pts (+55.4%) over a 2 mile trip
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 29.11pts (+264.7%) in November
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 7.18pts (+143.6%) here at Plumpton

Now I know that many of you like a composite angle you can pop into your Query Tool for future reference, so if that's the case, I'd stick to the first three or four datasets ie how recently have they run, how often have they run recently, how many rivals are they facing and what is the ground like, but open them up slightly to give a more realistic sample size...

...ie those racing in fields of 7 to 9 runners within 60 days of their last run, having had 1-4 runs in the previous 90 days are 24 from 65 (36.9% SR) for 67.66pts (+104.1% ROI), including 7/23 (30.4%) for 25pts (+108.7% ROI) on Soft/Heavy ground...

...backing up...a 1pt win bet on Sir Egbert @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Coral, Hills, Ladbrokes & Unibet at 4.50pm on Sunday, whilst Bet365 were a third of a point bigger for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th February 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

3.45 Taunton : Orchardstown Cross @ 3/1 BOG WON at 6/4 (Mistake 1st, held up behind, headway and in touch 10th, went 2nd before 4 out, led after next, driven clear after 2 out, stayed on well, comfortably clear by 8 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Flashing Glance 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, Handicap Hurdle over 2m on good ground, worth £6563 to the winner... 

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is a former course and distance winner and comes here off the back of a decent run at Cheltenham 25 days ago, when third in a higher grade of contest than this one he faces today.

His trainer, Tom Lacey, has hit the ground running after the resumption of racing last week landing 4 wins from 10 runners (40% SR) for level stakes profits of 4.12pts (+41.2% ROI) for his followers. Amongst those 10 runners, hurdlers are 3 from 6, handicappers 2 from 5 and handicap hurdlers winning 2 of 3.

And it's with Tom Lacey we stay for our main chunk of data, as since the start of 2016, his hurdlers are profitable to backed blindly at 63 from 274 (23% SR) for 236pts (+86.1% ROI) and these impressive figures include the following of relevance today...

  • males are 45/206 (21.8%) for 193.7pts (+94%)
  • handicappers are 40/150 (26.7%) for 121pts (+80.7%)
  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 24/78 (30.8%) for 116.6pts (+149.4%)
  • those ridden by Richard Johnson are 19/65 (29.2%) for 79.9pts (+123%)
  • over this 2m trip : 10/50 (20%) for 70.1pts (+140.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/42 (21.4%) for 38.2pts (+90.9%)
  • those dropping down a class are 10/23 (43.5%) for 58pts (+252.4%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 3/13 (23.1%) for 4.8pts (+36.9%)

...and male handicappers placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 10/33 (30.3% SR) for 48pts (+145.5% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Flashing Glance 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.15 Taunton : Capeland @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway before 3 out, blundered 3 out, kept on and held towards finish, going down by half a length)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Grade 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £33762 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a winner of a similar quality Grade 3 handicap chase here at Cheltenham over 3m3.5f when last seen 27 days ago, so stamina shouldn't be an issue today, which isn't surprising considering that offspring of Shirocco are 14 from 115 (12.2% SR) for 21.5pts (+18.7% ROI) backed blindly at trips of 2m6f to 3m3.5f since 2015, from which...

  • those competing for prizes below £35k are 14/108 (13%) for 28.5pts (+26.4%)
  • males are 11/98 (11.2%) for 22.2pts (+22.6%)
  • 11-45 days since last run = 10/75 (13.3%) for 14.1pts (+18.8%)
  • 6-8 yr olds are 11/71 (15.5%) for 36.4pts (+51.2%)
  • on Good / Good to Soft : 11/71 (15.5%) for 33.8pts (+47.6%)
  • in fields of 5-11 runners : 11/69 (15.9%) for 32.1pts (+46.5%)
  • in 2018 alone : 7/42 (16.7%) for 26pts (+62%)
  • and at 3m1.5f to 3m3.5f : 4/21 919%) for 25.4pts (+120.9%)

Our trainer is Philip Hobbs (so you won't be surprised to see Richard Johnson in the saddle, but I won't bore you by repeating the well known/worn trainer jockey stats!) and Mr Hobbs is in good form again right now, with 13 winners from 44 already this month and that 29.6% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of some 109.4pts (+248.6% ROI) to betfair SP, including...

  • at odds of 9/1 and shorter : 12/35 (34.3%) for 31.7pts (+90.5%)
  • chasers are 7/18 (38.9%) for 117.5pts (+625.8%)
  • Sub 10/1 chasers are 6/14 (42.9%) for 34.8pts (+248.6%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 5/8 (62.5%) for 24.7pts (+309%) (all were chasers)
  • and sub-10/1 runners at 3m and beyond = 5/7 (71.4%) for 25.7pts (+367.4%)  (all were chasers)

And finally, a quick look at Philip Hobbs excellent record here over fences at NH HQ, particularly with those with a bit (but not too much!) of market support behind them. What I look for is a Philip Hobbs Cheltenham handicap chaser sent off longer than 3/1 but still at single digit odds and in numerical terms, we have...

...Hobbs + Chelts HC Chasers @ 10/3 to 9/1 = 14/55 (25.5% SR) for 61.7pts (+112.2% ROI) since the start of 2012 and these include of relevance today...

  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 12/39 (30.8%) for 59.2pts (+151.7%)
  • previous Chelts winners are 7/26 (26.9%) for 26pts (+100%)
  • Class 1 = 5/24 (20.8%) for 23.5pts (+97.9%)
  • aiming at prizes of £25k to £35k : 9/23 (39.1%) for 54.8pts (+238.2%)
  • Grade 3 = 5/18 (27.8%) for 29.5pts (+163.9%)
  • 8 yr olds are 5/17 (29.4%) for 28.2pts (+166.1%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 24.2pts (+268.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG, as offered by Hills, Ladbrokes & Coral at 5.25pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

1.00 Fakenham : Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Led, not fluent 5th, ridden and headed bend approaching last, soon weakened) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

12.40 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, apologies for the slightly tardy write-up, I do aim to have this online by around 9am, but I had some stuff to deal with at my daughter's school this morning. Anyway, on with the details!

This 8 yr old gelding was a class, course and distance winner here LTO 22 days ago despite coming off a break of almost 6 months. He benefited from an excellent tactical ride from Richard Johnson (who retains the ride), doing just enough to win with enough in hand whilst protecting his mark for next time out. The result is a mere 3lb rise in weight, but he should also strip fitter for having had the run.

He's the only previous course and distance winner in today's contest, he loves some cut in the ground and has an excellent 30% strike rate in handicap hurdles, after winning 6 of 20 so far, including of relevance today...

  • 6/16 (37.5%) with a tongue tie
  • 6/15 (40%) going left handed
  • 5/6 (83.3%) in the final third of the year
  • 3/4 (75%) at Class 4
  • 2/4 (50%) here at Chepstow
  • 3/3 (100%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2/3 (66.6%) off a mark of 110-120
  • 2/2 (100%) in November

His trainer Martin Keighley is 22 from 83 (26.5% SR) for 71.4pts (+86% ROI) with LTO winners since the start of 2015 and these include...

  • in handicaps : 16/59 (27.1%) for 64.3pts (+109%)
  • over hurdles : 16/49 (32.7%) for 71.9pts (+146.7%)
  • in handicap hurdles : 12/33 (36.4%) for 66.9pts (+202.6%)
  • with hcp hurdlers who won a hcp hurdle LTO : 11/22 (50%) for 53.1pts (+241.4%)
  • and with hcp hurdlers who won a hcp hurdle LTO 6-25 days earlier : 9/15 (60%) for 49.8pts (+332.1%)

Martin also has a decent record record here at Chepstow, despite not actually having all that many runners come here. Since 2011, his handicap hurdlers have won 7 of 33 (21.2% SR) for 36.5pts (+110.6% ROI) profit, from which...

  • those last seen in the past 25 days are 5/18 (27.8%) for 40.44pts (+224.7%)
  • over this 3m C&D : 4/18 (22.2%) for 33.9pts (+188.4%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 5/13 (38.5%) for 13.1pts (+101.1%)
  • and at Class 4 : 4/12 (33.3%) for 17.1pts (+142.2%)

And finally, I'll wrap this up by sharing one of my micro-systems that Solstice Star also qualifies from today...

...UK NH Hcp Hurdles + 2011-18 + LTO winner of a same class, course and distance hcp hurdle = 110/419 (26.3% SR) for 152.2pts (+36.3% ROI)...

In the interests of time, brevity etc, I'm not oing to drill down into that micro today, but it is worth noting that at trips of 3m to 3m2f, those 419 runners are 23/82 (28.1%) for 48pts (+58.5%) and those racing on Good to Soft are 17/68 (25%) for 49.5pts (+72.8%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Hills & Sky at 5.45pm on Tuesday evening, whilst there was an extra sixth of a point available with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th October 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.30 Leicester : Lady Alavesa @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Behind, headway over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, led at post) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 4 Novices Limited Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m2½f on Good ground worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a winner on his only previous effort over fences and that was at Ayr back in May. He reappeared 11 days ago for a sharpener over hurdles, but was expectedly found out/outpaced over a much shorter trip, but the run will have done him good after 165-day absence. Back over fences and back up in trip, this should be more to his liking.

His yard is in great form of late with his stablemates winning 10 of 38 (26.3% SR) over the last 30 days, including 3 from 4 over fences, whilst in the last fortnight, they are 5 from 20 (25%) with a 2 from 3 record in chases.

In fact, it's less than 16 months since Olly Murphy had his first runner, but in that time he has quickly established a reputation as a decent trainer and although they do tend to attract market support, you can actually just about turn a small profit from blindly backing his chasers, as his 16 from 65 (24.6% SR) record has generated 1.16pts profit at Betfair SP at a modest ROI of 1.78%.

All 65 were males and whilst the returns are small, they're an excellent starting point and I'd never advocate blind backing anyway! Yet, of the Olly Murphy chasers so far...

  • handicappers are 14/58 (24.1%) for 2.44pts (+4.2%)
  • Class 4/5 runners are 15/51 (29.4%) for 10.22pts (+20%) you could actually stop here and do nicely!
  • after a break of 11-45 days : 12/47 (25.5%) for 8.71pts (+18.5%)
  • Class 4/5 handicappers : 13/45 (28.9%) for 10.49pts (+23.3%) another possible stopping point?
  • on Good ground : 9/34 (26.5%) for 9.1pts (+26.8%)
  • at odds of 6/5 to 7/2 : 13/30 (43.3%) for 11.5pts (+38.3%)
  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 7/25 (28%) for 4.41pts (+17.6%)
  • 8 yr olds are 4/14 (28.6%) for 0.32pts (+2.26%)
  • in October : 4/7 (57.1%) for 4.65pts (+66.4%)
  • and after a break of 11-15 days : 2/4 950%) for 1.47pts (+36.7%)

...and a handy composite micro from the above?

Well, it's probably a micro micro, but Olly Murphy's Class 4/5 handicap chasers priced at 10/3 and shorter just 11 to 45 days after their last run are 8 from 15 (53.3% SR) for 9.87pts at an ROI of 65.8% with Richard Johnson riding 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) for 9.64pts (+120.6%)...

...and Dicky himself is in good touch right now winning 17 of 49 (34.7% SR) in the last fortnight, including 7 from 14 (50%) over fences, whilst the last 7 days have seen him win 13 of 27 (48.2%) with a 5 from 7 record in chases.

And although the Murphy/Johnson/hcp chase angle hasn't seen much action in the last couple of months, it's still worth noting that it's good for 7 winners from 22 (31.8% SR) for 7.41pts (+33.7% ROI) and interestingly 5 of those 22 chasers ran in a hurdle race last time out. Two wins and a place from those five and a £100 outlay (5 x £20 straight win bets) on them would have made you £158.60 profit at an obvious ROI of 158.6%...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.55pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.50 Fontwell : Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by the Trainer at 14:14, because the going was changed to Good to Soft from Good / Good to Firm in places)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground, worth £8837 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 outings so far, including 2+3 from 5 over hurdles. He's 3+1 from 5 on good ground, 2+2 from 5 under jockey Richard Johnson and 2+1 from 3 in fields of 7-9 runners, so conditions should be fine for him here.

This is his first outing in just over 20 weeks (143 days to be precise), but whilst that can be a concern for some horses, he did make the frame on this very date last year off a break of 182 days and then in April of this year won after a 126 day absence, so my fears on that score are allayed somewhat.

His trainer Philip Hobbs has had a quiet late summer/early autumn thus far, sending out just 19 runners in the last 60 days but with 7 winners (36.8% SR) in that period and a 30-day record of 4 from 12 (33.3%), I think the yard is just getting to ramp up for the season proper. His record here at Stratford is decent enough too, with 22 winners from 83 (26.5% SR) yielding punter profits of 40.5pts (+48.8% ROI) since the start of 2013 and with this contest in mind, those 83 runners are...

  • 17/59 (28.8%) for 53pts (+89.9%) in handicaps
  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 15.9pts (+39.7%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 42.3pts (+128.2%) at Class 3
  • and 6/28 (21.45) for 6.6pts (+23.5%) over hurdles

...whilst from the above : Hobbs + Johnson + Class 3 handicap = 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 18.2pts (+140.1% ROI).

That 13/40 trainer/jockey stat above is unsurprising as more generally the partnership is 32 from 146 (21.9% SR) for 33.4pts (+22.9% ROI) in Class 3 handicap hurdles here in the UK since the start of 2012.

And finally, I'd like to refer back to this horse coming off a break of just over 20 weeks. I already said he'd run well previously after a lay-off, but it's worth noting that this yard's runners do very well when the market money is down on one coming back from a lay off. In numerical terms, I'm telling you that since the start of 2010, Philip Hobbs' runners priced at 11/8 to 9/2 returning from an absence of 4 to 8 months are 54 from 167 (32.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.9pts (+25.7% ROI) and once again with this race in mind, this stat includes...

  • male runners at 52/153 (34%) for 50pts (+32.7%)
  • in the August-January half-year : 48/141 (34%) for 49.6pts (+35.2%)
  • with RJ in the saddle : 37/109 (34%) for 37.7pts (+34.6%)
  • over hurdles : 29/84 (34.5%) for 32.4pts (+38.6%)
  • in handicaps : 29/83 (34.9%) for 31.2pts (+37.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/46 (37%) for 17.3pts (+37.5%)
  • and over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f : 6/11 (54.5%) for 15.43pts (+140.3%)

And those pretty consistent numbers can be combined to make several profitable angles. of course, each time you add a layer, you dilute the sample size but if you wanted, you could go with...RJ on male hcp hurdlers from Aug-Jan for 10 wins from 22 (45.5% SR) and 18.33pts (+83.3% ROI) profit from which those racing over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f are 3/5 (60%) for 7.5pts (+150%)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  , a price widely available at 7.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2018

Thursday's Result :

5.55 Chelmsford : Roy's Legacy @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 I'll add the report later...

Next up is Friday's...

4.50 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Thomas Patrick @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 3, 3m6.5f handicap on soft ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding with 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes in his last five starts, who jumped superbly and looked a natural when winning on his chasing debut last time out winning by 5 lengths at Chepstow three weeks ago on heavy ground.

That was not only his chase debut, but also the first time he'd been ridden by today's jockey Richard Johnson. He's also got past wins here and on soft and heavy ground in favour too, as well has having the benefit of being trained by Tom Lacey, whose runners are 50/256 (19.5% SR) for 203.3pts (+79.4% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • males : 40/207 (19.3%) for 200.2pts (+96.7%)
  • handicaps : 26/107 (24.3%) for 77.2pts (+72.2%)
  • on Soft ground : 15/77 (19.5%) for 41.7pts (+54.2%)
  • raced in past three weeks : 17/67 (25.4%) for 82.7pts (+123.5%)
  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 15/65 (23.1%) for 42.4pts (+65.2%)
  • Class 3 : 7/45 (15.6%) for 48.9pts (+31.9%)
  • Exeter : 4/15 (26.7%) for 11.66pts (+77.7%)

Whilst more generally, since the start of 2014 in UK Class 2/3 Handicap Chases, horses priced shorter than 8/1 running 6-30 days after winning a Novice Chase last time out are 79/291 (27.2% SR) for 62.4pts (+21.5% ROI), from which...

  • won by 5L or more LTO : 45/130 (34.6%) for 57.4pts (+44.2%)
  • on Soft : 27/92 (29.4%) for 49.03pts (+53.3%)
  • 3m2.5f to 3m6.5f : 3/12 (25%) for 10pts (+83.3%)
  • and at Exeter : 4/11 (36.4%) for 14pts (+126.9%)

...suggesting...a 1pt win bet on Thomas Patrick @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st February 2018

Wednesday's Result :

1.45 Leicester : Head To The Stars @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 6/4 Tracked leaders, took keen hold, went 2nd 6th, led before omitted 3 out, headed after 2 out, no impression on flat, wearily beaten by five lengths...

We start the new month with Thursday's...

3.35 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kayf Adventure @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m5.5f on Heavy ground worth £15,335 to the winner...

Why?

Philip Hobbs' 7 yr old gelding has 4 wins and 3 places from 10 starts so far, having previously won in bumpers, over hurdles and also over fences where he has 2 wins and a place from just four efforts including a win last time out. That was 26 days ago also here at Wincanton, also on heavy ground and although he's being asked to run an extra furlong today, he has previously won at this trip and further.

He has three wins from four heavy ground runs and has made the frame in each of the four races with Richard Johnson on his back, winning twice and with a good record in small fields (3 wins and a place from 4 in fields of less than 7 runners), there shouldn't be any fear of the unknown today.

Since 2011, the Hobbs/Johnson partnership is 66 from 352 (18.7% SR) for 79.4pts (+22.5% ROI) in Class 2/3 handicap chases, all with male runners and these include...

  • 7 to 9 yr olds at 47/222 (21.2%) for 83.7pts (+37.7%)
  • from November to march : 41/185 (22.2%) for 117.8pts (+63.7%)
  • 21-45 days since last run : 30/154 (19.5%) for 33.6pts (+21.8%)
  • and those dropping in class are 19/90 (21.1%) for 50.4pts (+56%)

This drop in class is also quite significant, as Philip's NH Handicap class droppers are 44/241 (18.3% SR) for 95.9pts (+39.8% ROI), which alone would have made the horse of interest, even more so when those last seen 21-45 days earlier are 23/13 (20.4%) for 99.7pts (+88.2%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Kayf Adventure @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!