Tag Archives: Redcar racecourse

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2019

Monday's pick was...

7.30 Kempton : Celtic Classis @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1 (Tracked leader, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4,  Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to firm ground worth £5,693 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has made the frame in five of his last six starts, winning twice and was only beaten by three quarters of a length over this course and distance last time out, 24 days ago : that was in a higher grade than today, so hopefully the drop in class will be to his (and our) advantage.

He has a win and two places from four starts at Class 4, a win and two runner-up finishes from his last three runs on good to firm, he has a win and a runner-up place from two previous visits to Redcar and was a runner-up on the only other occasion that David Nolan rode him.

His trainer David O'Meara is 38 from 151 (25.2% SR) for 70.8pts (+46.9% ROI) in Redcar handicaps at odds of 2/1 to 15/2 (where I do most of my betting), from which the following are relevant today...

  • 36/139 (28.1%) for 70.1pts (+50.4%) in races worth less than £8,000 to the winner
  • 29/92 (31.5%) for 72.7pts (+79%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 22/87 (25.3%) for 43.8pts (+50.3%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 16/45 (35.6%) for 42.5pts (+94.4%) with class droppers
  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 37.2pts (+82.7%) with 4 yr olds
  • 13/38 (34.2%) for 34.4pts (+90.4%) over trips of 8 to 9 furlongs
  • 11/41 (26.8%) for 20.6pts (+50.2%) at Class 4
  • and 10/46 (21.7%) for 16.6pts (+36.2%) over the last three seasons...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG as was available in half a dozen places at 5.45pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.35 Ffos Las : Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Tracked leaders, lost place 5 out, outpaced next, rallied after last, took modest 3rd near finish, no chance with front pair )

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Redcar:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Music Seeker @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £6663 to the winner...

Why?...

More about this later...

...but first... a 1pt win bet on Music Seeker @ 11/4 BOG which was available from over half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Wolverhampton: Zapper Cass @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 7/2 (In touch, headway to chase leaders over 2f out, soon driven to challenge, kept on well towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Redcar:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sameem @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 10-runner, Class 4 Handicap for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to firm worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

James Tate's three-year-old New Approach colt is making his handicap debut in this contest. The trainer excels with handicap debutants and has won with 12 of the 36 he's saddled in the past year (33.33%, +15.19, A/E 1.85).

Indeed, in the last four months, Tate's form with first time handicap runners reads 6112111278611.

Tate is in excellent form recently, too, having scored with four of the eleven runners he's had in the past fortnight (36.36%, +7.63, A/E 1.52). Two more have made the frame in that time.

A winner on his previous start by no less than six lengths, staying on over 7 1/2 furlongs at Beverley, the step up in trip looks ideal for Sameem, but it is the switch to handicaps that catches the eye. Tate is three-from-five in the past year with such horses when they won their last start (60%, +5.33, A/E 1.95)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sameem 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

8.05 Uttoxeter : Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, modest effort 3 out, no impression, well beaten 2 out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

3.05 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 6, 5f Handicap (3yo) on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

An unexposed three year old filly on handicap debut after steady progression in three outings so far, yet is dropped in class today.

Her trainer David O'Meara is no stranger to the winners' enclosure here at Redcar either, clocking up 51 winners from 308 runners over the last six seasons with that 16.6% strike rate worth 55.9pts (+18.2% ROI) to his followers and whilst backing his runners blindly here is profitable, we can do better than 18% by eliminating some losing bets via the following logical filters...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 42/232 (19.1%) for 80.4pts (+34.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 50 to 90 are 44/231 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+33%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 44/216 (20.4%) for 100.6pts (+46.6%)
  • handicappers are 38/207 (18.4%) for 60.4pts (+29.2%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 28/114 (24.6%) for 54.7pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 4 to 15 days ago are 21/103 (20.4%) for 61.75pts (+60%)
  • Class 6 runners are 20/90 (22.2%) for 37.6 pts (+41.8%)
  • females are 13/79 (16.5%) for 66.3pts (+84%)
  • in May : 14/74 (18.9%) for 15.8pts (+21.4%)
  • last season : 12/60 (20%) for 34pts (+56.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 10/54 (18.5%) for 13.7pts (+25.3%)
  • and over this 5f course and distance : 8/44 (18.2%) for 18.6pts (+42.3%)

from which...2-4 yr old handicappers rated 50 to 90 and priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 27/108 (25% SR) for 103.1pts (+95.5% ROI) with a 7/21 (33.3%) for 29.8pts (+141.8%) record last year.

And despite David not having any of 11 handicap debutants win so far this Flat season, he's certainly due one and it wouldn't be unusual for that to happen as over the last five Flat seasons, his runners are 31/208 (14.9% SR) for 90.8pts (+43.7% ROI) on handicap debut, including of relevance today...

  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope : 19/90 (21.1%) for 79.3pts (+88.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 36.5pts (+57.9%)
  • in May : 11/45 (24.4%) for 74.4pts (+165.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/15 (20%) for 1.65pts (+11%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Paddy Power & Bet365 and Unibet at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2017

Thursday's Result :

4.30 Uttoxeter : Classic Jewel @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 : Mid-division, close up 5th, chased leader 3 out, soon ridden, lost place between last 2, no impression with front pair before last, just held on for 3rd...

Friday's selection goes in the...

4.55 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Restive @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 6, 3yo+ Lady amateur riders' handicap over 1m2f on Good ground...

...and a 4 year old gelding trained by Iain Jardine, whose form at the end of the Flat season is generally something to keep an eye on as 2015-17 / Flat handicaps / August - October = 36/220 (16.4% SR) for 109.6pts at an ROI of 49.8%, including...

  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 34/174 (19.5%) for 138.7pts (+79.7%)
  • on Good ground : 13/64 (20.3%) for 88.3pts (+138%)
  • 4 yr olds are 13/57 (22.8%) for 76.6pts (+134.4%)
  • LTO runners-up are 6/31 (19.4%) for 54.4pts (+175.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/16 (18.75%) for 4.55pts (+28.4%)

Now in this type of race, jockey booking plays a big part in how the races unfold, but thankfully in Serena Brotherton, we have the UK's best Lady Amateur rider, one who is actually profitable to follow blindly!

Since the start of 2008, her record stands at 85/465 (18.3% SR) for 138pts (+29.7% ROI), whilst in handicaps, she is 83/454 (18.3%) for 143pts (+31.5%) and with today's contest in mind, those 454 handicap races include...

  • Amateur Riders Only : 75/397 (18.9%) for 104.3pts (+26.3%)
  • on Flat (turf) : 64/354 (18.1%) for 125.6pts (+35.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 39/241 (16.2%) for 47.9pts (+19.9%)
  • Ladies Only races : 44/226 (19.5%) for 124.5pts (+55.1%)
  • Lady Amateur races : 36/175 (20.6%) for 79.8pts (+45.6%)
  • on Good ground : 19/114 (16.7%) for 40.6pts (+35.6%)
  • and over today's 1m2f trip : 16/99 (16.2%) for 47.6pts (+48.1%)

Serena also rides Hannington in the 2nd division of this race (card here) and is worth a second look...

...but our bet is... a 1pt win bet on Restive @ 9/2 BOG, which was available from SkyBet, SunBets & 10Bet at 5.30pm on Thursday. Those able to take 11/2 from Bet365 should do so and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2017

Monday's Result :

3.35 Worcester : Addrastos @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 7/2 : Led until 3rd, prominent, ridden when not fluent 2 out, close 3rd flat, held towards finish and beaten by less than 3 lengths...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.50 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Placebo Effect @ 9/2 non-BOG or 4/1 BOG

Why?

311313 Last 6 runs, 3rd of 9 in a much stronger Class 2 hcp LTO 6 days back, now down 3lbs and 3 classes and should enjoy conditions, as he's...

  • 2 wins, 2 placed from 6 under today's jockey Andrew Mullen
  • 3+2 from 5 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3+2/5 rated (OR) 51 to 70
  • 3 from 3 at 4/1 or shorter
  • 3/3 within a fortnight of last run
  • 2+1/3 at 7f
  • 2+1/3 on soft

Plus 2014-17 : trainer Ollie Peers runners returning 4-7 days after they last ran = 13/29 (44.8% SR) for 31.1pts (+107.4% ROI), including...

  • males at 12/24 (50%) for 32.8pts (+136.6%)
  • hcps : 10/24 (41.7%) for 27pts (+112.6%)
  • at 9/4 to 15/2 : 12/23 (52.2%) for 35.3pts (+153.5%)
  • on the Flat : 11/23 (47.8%) for 30.3pts (+131.6%)
  • Monday to Friday racing : 12/22 (54.6%) for 34.4pts (+156.2%)
  • June to September : 11/20 (55%) for 33.3pts (+166.4%)
  • Class 5 : 6/14 (42.9%) for 18pts (+128.7%)
  • in 2017 : 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.24pts (+189.1%)
  • under Andrew Mullen : 4/6 (66.6%) for 14.2pts (+237.3%)
  • over 7/7.5 furlongs : 4/6 (66.6%) for 9.87pts (+164.5%)
  • 2 yr olds are 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.7pts (+90%)
  • and on soft ground : 1/1 (100%) for 2.85pts (+285%)

AND...since 2014 / Flat (turf) hcp @ 9/4 to 15/2 on Monday to Friday in June to Setpember = 7/9 (77.8% SR) for 31.45pts (+349.4% ROI), from which Class 5's are 3 from 4, Andrew Mullen is 2/2 as are both 7/7.5f and 2017 runners.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Placebo Effect @ 9/2 non-BOG or 4/1 BOG, as of 5.50pm on Monday. The non-BOG price is from Betfred & Totesport, who don't go BOG until the morning of the race, whilst the BOG price is fairly widely available, so I'll let you make your own choice! For what it's worth, I'm on with Betfred at the higher price, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th October 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.25 Cheltenham : Young Dillon @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/1 (Held up, in mid-division, in touch form 4th, not fluent 6th, ridden and hanging left after 3 out, hampered on bend after next, stayed on same pace flat)

Monday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tricky Dicky at 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding wasn't beaten by far (a length, a head and a nose) into 4th place of a big field (16 ran) handicap at Thirsk last time out almost 6 weeks ago. His performance looks even better after the event, when you realise that from stall 1, he was clearly on the "wrong side" as the rest of the first five home came from stalls 10, 16, 13 and 9.

The runner-up has since won in another big filed and that was over today's course and distance, so if the form holds out, we could be well in.

Prior to that defeat at Thirsk, Tricky Dicky's form was 1212, all over this 6f trip and to date, he is 3/10 (30% SR) for 58.93pts (+589.3% ROI) in Flat handicaps, from which the following are relevant today...

  • over 6f : 3/7 (42.9%) for 61.9pts (+884.7%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/6 (50%) for 62.9pts (+1048.8%)
  • at 4/1 and shorter : 2/5 (40%) for 2.13pts (+42.6%)
  • in fields of 9-13 runners : 3/3 (100%) for 65.93pts (+2197.7%)
  • on a straight track : 2/4 (50%) for 60.12pts (+1503%)
  • here at Redcar : 1/1 (100%) for 60.8pts (+608%)

That Redcar win above was over this track and trip and with the 33/1 SP paying out 60.8pts profit at Betfair SP, that clearly skews the P/L and ROI of the above stats somewhat, but doesn't detract from their validity.

A further level of reassurance can be taken from the fact that he's by Holy Roman Emperor, whose 3 yr olds are 82/596 (13.8% SR) for 279.6pts (+46.9% ROI) in UK Flat races, of which...

  • over 6f : 22/135 (16.3%) for 121.2pts (+89.7%)
  • this year : 19/102 (18.6%) for 141pts (+138.2%)
  • on Soft ground : 14/84 (16.7%) for 49.8pts (+59.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 2/9 (22.2%) for 62.2pts (+690.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Tricky Dicky at 7/2 BOG, a price widely available at 9.55pm on Sunday, although I'd advise using Bet365 where possible, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Redcar.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 28th April 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.30 Wolverhampton: Ilzam @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.10 Redcar

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dandyleekie at 11/4 BOG.

Why?

Since the start of the 2012 campaign, trainer David O'Meara's runners have won 35 times from 190 (18.4% SR) efforts on the flat here at Redcar with the 53.6pts level stakes profits equating to an ROI of a very useful 28.2% and in the context of today's encounter, those runners are...

  • 27/134 (20.2% SR) for 48.1pts (+35.9% ROI) in handicaps
  • 31/132 (23.5% SR) for 83.6pts (+63.3% ROI) at odds of 9/4 to 12/1
  • 21/84 (25% SR) for 55pts (+65.5% ROI) ridden by Danny Tudhope
  • 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 31.7pts (+51.9% ROI) 4 to 15 days after their last run
  • 10/41 (24.4% SR) for 40pts (+97.5% ROI) as 4 yr olds
  • and 5 from 26 (19.2% SR) for 10.8pts (+41.5% ROI) at Class 4.

From the above, Danny Tudhope is 13 from 46 (28.3% SR) for 39.7pts (+86.4% ROI) in handicaps at odds of 9/4 to 12/1.

Dandyleekie's win last time out a fortnight ago was his first run for six months and since the start of 2014, the O'Meara Class 4 handicappers with just one run in the previous 90 days are 14 from 52 (26.9% SR) for 60.1pts (+115.5% ROI) with the following of interest today...

  • males are 12/42 (28.6% SR) for 64pts (+152.4% ROI)
  • those with a top 5 finish LTO are 11/32 (34.4% SR) for 29.6pts (+92.6% ROI)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 9/30 (30% SR) for 27.1pts (+90.2% ROI)
  • those racing over 5 to 7 furlongs are 7/25 (28% SR) for 36.6pts (+146.4% ROI)
  • and 4 yr olds are 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 49.9pts at an ROI of 262.7%

That win last time out also came after a switch of yard following a sequence of results that saw him fail to finish in the first three home in five consecutive outings. Yet, since 2009 in the months of April to October, handicappers racing over trips shorter than 1m5f at classes 3 to 5, 11 to 25 days after a win that was preceded by three or more unplaced efforts are 58/388 (15% SR) for 139.1pts (+35.8% ROI), provided they aren't stepped up in trip by more than a furlong, aren't rated any more than 4lbs higher than LTO and aren't stepping up by more than one class.

(sounds complicated, but it really isn't!)

And the call is...a 1pt win bet on Dandyleekie at 11/4 BOG with any one of around a dozen firms all quoting the same price at 6.40pm. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2015

Ruaraidh Hugh showed us again how much he likes racing at Market Rasen by securing a 10 lengths victory, as he was the one with most left at the end.

Those who haven't seen him race before might have been ripping their slips up with about 4 furlongs to run, as he looked beaten and had to be ridden, but this seems to be common about his past runs and he invariably gets a second wind and powers for home.

He made a bit of a rick 4 from home, but recovered well to land the spoils at 9/4, three quarters of a spoint shorter than our advised 3/1 odds.

It has been a terrific week for SotD and I'd love to close it out with a 5th winner from 6 picks via Saturday's...

5.45 Redcar:

A Class 6, 5 furlong handicap on good to firm ground where I've just taken 4/1 BOG about David O'Meara's 3yr old filly, Jebediah Shine.

David O'Meara's record here at Redcar stands at 36 winners from 214 runners (16.8% SR) for level stakes profits of 31.6pts at an ROI of 14.6% from blindly backing all of them. In handicap contests, the record is improved to 27/146 (18.5% SR) for 34.8pts (+23.9% ROI).

That 27/146 record in handicaps can be further analysed as follows...

  • those priced at 15/8 to 12/1 : 26/105 (24.8% SR) for 73.6pts (+70.1% ROI)
  • those running at Class 6 : 11/52 (21.2% SR) for 30.9pts (+59.5% ROI)
  • those competing over 5 furlongs : 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 13.7pts (+72.2% ROI)

Jebediah Shine was a winner as recently as Tuesday, when scoring quite comfortably by a length and a half over 5f at Thirsk in a similar standard race as she faces today. She is raised 6lbs from an OR of 63 to today's 69, but the presence of Josh Doyle in the saddle with his 7lb claim effectively makes her a pound better off.

The fact that she runs in similar conditions to a very recent win makes her of interest to me, as she fits the profile of horses I look out for who run within five days of a win last time out. There are, of course, other criteria that need to be fulfilled and they are, as follows...

Won LTO 1-5 days ago / now priced at 11/10 to 13/2 /running at the same (OR) mark as LTO or up to 7lbs higher / same class as LTO or up one grade / running over a trip no more than 1f different to LTO (longer or shorter) / must have a previous win at today's distance.

That might look complicated, but it really isn't, it's just harder to put in words than it is to implement it!

Anyway, since the start of 2011, this micro-system has produced 141 winners from 423 runners (33.33% SR) and 125.2pts at an ROI of 29.6%. You can, of course, break the figures down in a variety of ways, but with today's conditions in mind, we see that...

  • competing at the same trip as LTO : 100/314 (31.9% SR) for 72pts (+22.9% ROI)
  • running at the same class : 97/279 (34.8% SR) for 88.5pts (+31.7% ROI)
  • those now rated (OR) 6lbs higher : 82/259 (31.7% SR) for 74.3pts (+28.7% ROI)

You can combine all those three subsets to create a really tight micro-system that has found 38 winners from just 123 (30.9% SR) runners and profits of 29.1pts at an ROI of 23.7%. From this, the record over 5 furlongs is 10/30 (33.33% SR) for 9.4pts (+31.4% ROI).

So, based on the above stats and the fact that Jebediah Shine is effectively a pound lighter than her win at Thirsk, she could well take some beating, especially as that Thirsk outing was her first in 19 weeks and she could very strip fitter for the run.

All in all, I think 4/1 BOG looks quite generous and I've gone with Betfair Sportsbook for my wager, but you can get the same odds with both BetVictor and Hills by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 5.45 Redcar

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 4th October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th October 2014

Friday proved to be third time lucky at getting us on the score board for the October after two fallers had kicked the month off. Quest For More kept his feet on the ground and produced a workmanlike display and duyg deep to hold on under a well-timed ride by an in-form George Baker.

George had to be patient hemmed in against the rail and he bided his time waiting for a gap and one it came he squeezed up the inner to defy top weight and a late surge from the 3/1 favourite to land the spoils by half a length.

We'd backed him at 13/2 and I had quite correctly predicted a well fancied non-runner leading to a Rule 4 deduction. It was 20p in the pound on this occasion, turning our bet into one at 5.2/1 and whilst it's mild annoying to hand 1.3pts back, it's also very reassuring to know that we got virtually 150% of the winners 7/2 SP.

Now we're up and running for the month, I want another winner and so I've targeted the...

5.30 Redcar:

Where Rae Guest's 4 yr old filly, Calm Attitude, is available at 5/1 BOG with Paddy Power for this Class 4 handicap over 1m2f on good ground.

She'll be looking to add to Rae's impressive handicap record...

Since the start of the 2010 season, Rae Guest has a 15.2% strike rate in flat handicap races, courtesy of a 66 winners from 434 record, which in turn, has generated level stakes profits of 82.1pts at an ROI of 18.9%.

He seems to have more joy with "lower grade" runners ie those competing at today's Class 4 or worse, where his record in that same time period reads 60 winners from 352 (17.1% SR) for 118.7pts (+33.7% ROI). Horses running in the 5/2 to 10/1 price range are 43/231 (18.6% SR) for 73pts (+31.6% ROI) profit, whilst those competing over 9-10 furlongs are 12/59 (20.3% SR) for 75.7pts (+128.3% ROI) to date.

He also does well with "ladies" of a certain age...

No, I'm not being rude here! 😀 But I'm referring to the fact his 3 to 6 yr old female runners perform particularly well at Class 4/5 level. Since 2009 and disregarding any priced above 14/1, the record is 60 winners from 252 runners (23.8% SR) for 120.7pts profit at an ROI of 47.9%.

Calm Attitude drops in class today...

Rae's class droppers in flat handicaps have won 26 of 117 races since the start of the 2008 campaign with that 2 in 9 (22.22%SR) record reaping level stakes profits of 107.1pts or 91.5% of all stakes invested.

Those who were dropping in to the lower grade (classes 4 to 6) won 25 of 100 outings (25% SR) for 113.6pts (+113.6% ROI) and with a simple 8/1 cap applied to those 100 runners, we end up with 20 winners from 62 (32.3% SR) for 43.4pts (+70% ROI) profit.

Those dropping into Class 4 only won 7 of 24 races (29.25 SR) for 49.2pts (+204.8% ROI) with a record of 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 16.8pts (+105.1% ROI) when priced below 8/1 as above.

It's Saturday today...

Yes, Chris, we know it's Saturday, why tell us?
Well, certain trainers tend to do well on Saturdays in handicaps. Only last week I heard the people on Channel 4 saying how well David O'Meara did on Saturdays and Rae Guest is another.

There are lots of reasons why Saturday racing is different, be it extra races, more prize money, easier access for the working man who might be in a racing club/syndicate and wanting to see their horse run without taking time off work.

Whatever the reasoning behind it, certain trainers including Rae Guest have a decent record on Saturdays. Since 2008 Rae's own record in Saturday flat handicaps is 14 winners from 84 (16.7% SR) for 31.8pts (+37.9% ROI) profit.

Of the 84 runners, there's a 12/48 (25% SR) record for 17.2pts (+35.8% ROI) at Classes 4 to 6, those running below 8/1 are 13/38 (34.2% SR) for 36pts (+94.7% ROI) whilst those sub-8/1 runners running at classes 4 to 6 are 12/32 (37.5% SR) for 33.2pts (+103.7% ROI).

Calm Attitude comes here off the back of some good form, she won each of her last three starts last season and picked up where she left off by wining on her seasonal reappearance this year at Chepstow in May over today's 1m2f trip. She struggled to stay 1m4f next time out, but ran to within a neck of the winner dropping back to 10 furlongs next time out.

Since then, she's had just the one run, finishing second (beaten by a length and a quarter) in a decent 16-runner Class 2 handicap. She runs off a mark of 84, just squeezing into this race and if she runs anything like the way she did two grades higher, then this should be an easier task for her.

She would, admittedly, prefer a bit more "give" in the ground, it's currently Good here and being watered, but some fairly substantial rain is set to sweep the country on Saturday afternoon and if that materialises, would play to her strengths nicely.

Plenty to consider, but I think she stands an excellent chance here and I also believe we're getting a good price with a 1pt win bet on Calm Attitude at 5/1 BOG with Paddy Power. As always, I recommend that you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 5.30 Redcar

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.