Tag Archives: Philip Hobbs

Stat of the Day, 28th December 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.10 Wolverhampton : Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 7/2 (Went right start, soon tracked leader, led narrowly over 1f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, no extra)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m7f on soft ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding is 4 from 9 so far and got off the mark (at just the second time of asking) over fences last time out when winning by a mere 21 lengths eighteen days ago. That was over 2m4f on heavy ground at Uttoxeter and whilst this is 3f further for his handicap debut, the ground will ride slightly easier today, plus he has stayed 3m over hurdles on soft ground, whilst Richard Johnson retains the ride today.

Our race card icons (C5) suggest that both the aforementioned jockey and the trainer, Philip Hobbs have decent records on this track, so I'll take that as read and whilst keeping today's explanation fairly simple, I'll explore two other angles briefly for you.

Firstly, people of a certain age might remember "...it's Friday, it's five to five, it's Crackerjack...". Well along those lines: "...it's Saturday, it's a handicap and it's Hobbs & Johnson!"

Basically, this trainer/jockey combo are 46 from 288 (16% SR) for 16.4pts (+5.7% ROI) backed blindly in handicaps on Saturdays over the last six years. A good strike rate that's blindly profitable is always a decent starting point for a way in and of interest from those 288 runners, we have...

  • 44/242 (18.2%) for 27.1pts (+11.2%) at odds of Evens to 10/1
  • 30/170 (17.7%) for 32.3pts (+19%) over fences
  • 24/105 (22.9%) for 58.4pts (+55.6%) from November to January
  • and 15/68 (22.1%) for 12.7pts (+18.6%) at Class 3...

...whilst chasers sent off at Evens to 10/1 during November to January are 17/53 (32.1% SR) for 66.2pts (+124.9% ROI), including 5/14 935.7%) for 19.6pts (+139.8%) at Class 3.

Secondly, as our pick is making a handicap bow, it's worth noting that Philip Hobbs is having a good year with such runners, as his handicap debutants are 8 from 20 (40% SR) for 14.56pts (+72.8% ROI) in 2019 and these include...

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 8.6pts (+61.5%) from LTO winners
  • 5/10 (50%) for 12.4pts (+124%) in fields of 10-13 runners
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 16.5pts (+235.5%) from 6 yr olds
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.8pts (+42.1%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle...

...whilst 6 yr old LTO winners in fields of 10-13 runners are 2/3 (66.6% SR) for 6.3pts (+210% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 4.50pm on Friday, although I'm on with Hills (non-BOG until raceday) at 4/1. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.10 Salisbury : Bella Vita @ 9/2 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up in touch, headway to chase leaders over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.75 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gumball @ 9/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Good ground worth £18675 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was 3 from 9 over hurdles before switching to "level ground" in late February this year and is now 3 from 3 on the Flat/AW after 2 wins over 1m4f at Class 5, before landing a similar Class 3, 1m6f contest to today's when last seen 19 days ago at Salisbury, clear by 2 lengths and looking comfortable.

With regards to today's challenge, he is...

  • 6 from 9 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 6 from 6 at Class 3 or below
  • 3 from 4 going right handed
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 in 2m hurdle contests, so stamina shouldn't be an issue
  • 2 from 3 on Good ground
  • and 2 from 2 under today's jockey Oisin Murphy

He is trained by Philip Hobbs, best known for his NH runners, of course, but has dabbled successfully in the past 10 years with hurdlers running on the Flat/AW and over the last two years, his Flat/AW runners are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 8.36pts (+92.4% ROI) at trips of 1m4f to 1m6f, all of them male, including...

  • 5 from 7 at 4/1 and shorter
  • 4 from 7 in the February to June period
  • and 4 from 6 with 5 yr olds

And more generally, since 2014, in Flat handicaps over 2m or shorter, horses racing off the back of three consecutive wins are 104/502 (20.7% SR) for 96.7pts (+19.3% ROI) and these include of relevance/note today...

  • last 3 runs/wins all "on the level" : 99/482 (20.5%) for 85.8pts (+17.8%)
  • males are 78/378 (20.6%) for 101.3pts (+26.8%)
  • from March to August : 83/375 (22.1%) for 124.3pts (+33.2%)
  • 16-25 dslr : 26/125 (20.8%) for 55.4pts (+44.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 17/75 (22.7%) for 79.7pts (+106.3%)
  • over 1m6f to 2m : 15/55 (27.3%) for 27.9pts (+50.7%)
  • and this year alone : 7/11 (63.6%) for 18.15pts (+165%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gumball @ 9/4 BOG which was quite widely available at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.15 Taunton : Capeland @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway before 3 out, blundered 3 out, kept on and held towards finish, going down by half a length)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Grade 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £33762 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a winner of a similar quality Grade 3 handicap chase here at Cheltenham over 3m3.5f when last seen 27 days ago, so stamina shouldn't be an issue today, which isn't surprising considering that offspring of Shirocco are 14 from 115 (12.2% SR) for 21.5pts (+18.7% ROI) backed blindly at trips of 2m6f to 3m3.5f since 2015, from which...

  • those competing for prizes below £35k are 14/108 (13%) for 28.5pts (+26.4%)
  • males are 11/98 (11.2%) for 22.2pts (+22.6%)
  • 11-45 days since last run = 10/75 (13.3%) for 14.1pts (+18.8%)
  • 6-8 yr olds are 11/71 (15.5%) for 36.4pts (+51.2%)
  • on Good / Good to Soft : 11/71 (15.5%) for 33.8pts (+47.6%)
  • in fields of 5-11 runners : 11/69 (15.9%) for 32.1pts (+46.5%)
  • in 2018 alone : 7/42 (16.7%) for 26pts (+62%)
  • and at 3m1.5f to 3m3.5f : 4/21 919%) for 25.4pts (+120.9%)

Our trainer is Philip Hobbs (so you won't be surprised to see Richard Johnson in the saddle, but I won't bore you by repeating the well known/worn trainer jockey stats!) and Mr Hobbs is in good form again right now, with 13 winners from 44 already this month and that 29.6% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of some 109.4pts (+248.6% ROI) to betfair SP, including...

  • at odds of 9/1 and shorter : 12/35 (34.3%) for 31.7pts (+90.5%)
  • chasers are 7/18 (38.9%) for 117.5pts (+625.8%)
  • Sub 10/1 chasers are 6/14 (42.9%) for 34.8pts (+248.6%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 5/8 (62.5%) for 24.7pts (+309%) (all were chasers)
  • and sub-10/1 runners at 3m and beyond = 5/7 (71.4%) for 25.7pts (+367.4%)  (all were chasers)

And finally, a quick look at Philip Hobbs excellent record here over fences at NH HQ, particularly with those with a bit (but not too much!) of market support behind them. What I look for is a Philip Hobbs Cheltenham handicap chaser sent off longer than 3/1 but still at single digit odds and in numerical terms, we have...

...Hobbs + Chelts HC Chasers @ 10/3 to 9/1 = 14/55 (25.5% SR) for 61.7pts (+112.2% ROI) since the start of 2012 and these include of relevance today...

  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 12/39 (30.8%) for 59.2pts (+151.7%)
  • previous Chelts winners are 7/26 (26.9%) for 26pts (+100%)
  • Class 1 = 5/24 (20.8%) for 23.5pts (+97.9%)
  • aiming at prizes of £25k to £35k : 9/23 (39.1%) for 54.8pts (+238.2%)
  • Grade 3 = 5/18 (27.8%) for 29.5pts (+163.9%)
  • 8 yr olds are 5/17 (29.4%) for 28.2pts (+166.1%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 24.2pts (+268.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG, as offered by Hills, Ladbrokes & Coral at 5.25pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2018

Friday's Pick was...

12.50 Sandown : Cap St Vincent @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Held up in touch, headway 8th, ridden to chase leaders before 3 out, went 3rd next, kept on same pace, no impression with front pair)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.55 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m on Heavy ground worth £7408 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 6 yr old gelding, the only previous winner at this trip in this field (has won over C&D) and is trained by Philip Hobbs, whose runners seem to have been in great form of late ie...

Last 30 days = 20 from 98 (20.4% SR) for 200.2pts (+204.3% ROI), including 8/31 (25.8%) for 102.5pts (+330.8%) in chases

Last 14 days = 10/32 (31.25%) for 93.3pts (+291.5%), inc 5/10 (50%) for 101.35pts (+1013.5%) over fences

And the past 7 days = 6/14 (42.9%) for 97.5pts (+696.2%) with 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 99.7pts (+1994%) over the larger obstacles.

Note : the P/L and resultant ROI figures are above are skewed by a 50/1 winner last Saturday that paid out at over 90/1 on the exchanges, but that doesn't detract from the strike rates.

In addition to very good recent form, Mr Hobbs' handicap chasers are 16 from 96 (16.6% SR) for 14.4pts (+15% ROI) since 2009, including...

  • at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 : 15/54 (27.8%) for 23pts (+42.7%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 9/51 (17.6%) for 23.5pts (+46%)
  • on heavy ground : 4/28 (14.3%) for 18.8pts (+67.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 6/25 (24%) for 8.24pts (+33%)
  • and 6 yr olds are 5/14 (35.7%) for 12.3pts (+87.9%)

...whilst those sent off at 2/1 to 6.1 over today's course and distance are 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.09pts (+58%) including 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 5.45pts (+68.1%) on heavy ground.

Finally, as it's Saturday, it would be remiss of me not to mention Mr Hobbs' excellent record in Saturday handicaps. Saturday racing is ultra competitive and many people (owners, trainers and punters alike) find it hard to have a winner on these days, but if you were to follow Philip Hobbs in Saturday Class 1-3 handicap chases from October to January inclusive, you could do pretty well for yourself.

Since the start of 2013, such beasts (all male) are 32 from 151 (21.2% SR) for 93.5pts (+61.9%ROI), a remarkable record that includes of relevance today...

  • at odds of 2/1 to 10/1 : 29/114 (25.4%) for 88pts (+77.2%)
  • over trips of 3m/3m1f : 10/42 (23.8%) for 20.6pts (+49%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/38 (23.7%) for 18.95pts (+49.9%)
  • in December : 8/38 (21%) for 30.8pts (+81.1%)
  • on heavy  :6/27 (22.2%) for 13.27pts (+49.1%)
  • at Chepstow : 5/24 (20.8%) for 6.93pts (+28.9%)
  • 6 yr olds : 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.22pts (+59.1%)
  • and in 2018 alone : 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.45pts (+137.1%)

...and from the above, those sent off at 2/1 to 10/1 over trips of 3m/3m1f are 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 27.6pts (+78.8% ROI), including 7 from 14 (50%) for 17.74pts (+126.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 4/1...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening, whilst an extra half a point was available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.50 Fontwell : Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by the Trainer at 14:14, because the going was changed to Good to Soft from Good / Good to Firm in places)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground, worth £8837 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 outings so far, including 2+3 from 5 over hurdles. He's 3+1 from 5 on good ground, 2+2 from 5 under jockey Richard Johnson and 2+1 from 3 in fields of 7-9 runners, so conditions should be fine for him here.

This is his first outing in just over 20 weeks (143 days to be precise), but whilst that can be a concern for some horses, he did make the frame on this very date last year off a break of 182 days and then in April of this year won after a 126 day absence, so my fears on that score are allayed somewhat.

His trainer Philip Hobbs has had a quiet late summer/early autumn thus far, sending out just 19 runners in the last 60 days but with 7 winners (36.8% SR) in that period and a 30-day record of 4 from 12 (33.3%), I think the yard is just getting to ramp up for the season proper. His record here at Stratford is decent enough too, with 22 winners from 83 (26.5% SR) yielding punter profits of 40.5pts (+48.8% ROI) since the start of 2013 and with this contest in mind, those 83 runners are...

  • 17/59 (28.8%) for 53pts (+89.9%) in handicaps
  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 15.9pts (+39.7%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 42.3pts (+128.2%) at Class 3
  • and 6/28 (21.45) for 6.6pts (+23.5%) over hurdles

...whilst from the above : Hobbs + Johnson + Class 3 handicap = 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 18.2pts (+140.1% ROI).

That 13/40 trainer/jockey stat above is unsurprising as more generally the partnership is 32 from 146 (21.9% SR) for 33.4pts (+22.9% ROI) in Class 3 handicap hurdles here in the UK since the start of 2012.

And finally, I'd like to refer back to this horse coming off a break of just over 20 weeks. I already said he'd run well previously after a lay-off, but it's worth noting that this yard's runners do very well when the market money is down on one coming back from a lay off. In numerical terms, I'm telling you that since the start of 2010, Philip Hobbs' runners priced at 11/8 to 9/2 returning from an absence of 4 to 8 months are 54 from 167 (32.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.9pts (+25.7% ROI) and once again with this race in mind, this stat includes...

  • male runners at 52/153 (34%) for 50pts (+32.7%)
  • in the August-January half-year : 48/141 (34%) for 49.6pts (+35.2%)
  • with RJ in the saddle : 37/109 (34%) for 37.7pts (+34.6%)
  • over hurdles : 29/84 (34.5%) for 32.4pts (+38.6%)
  • in handicaps : 29/83 (34.9%) for 31.2pts (+37.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/46 (37%) for 17.3pts (+37.5%)
  • and over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f : 6/11 (54.5%) for 15.43pts (+140.3%)

And those pretty consistent numbers can be combined to make several profitable angles. of course, each time you add a layer, you dilute the sample size but if you wanted, you could go with...RJ on male hcp hurdlers from Aug-Jan for 10 wins from 22 (45.5% SR) and 18.33pts (+83.3% ROI) profit from which those racing over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f are 3/5 (60%) for 7.5pts (+150%)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  , a price widely available at 7.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st February 2018

Wednesday's Result :

1.45 Leicester : Head To The Stars @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 6/4 Tracked leaders, took keen hold, went 2nd 6th, led before omitted 3 out, headed after 2 out, no impression on flat, wearily beaten by five lengths...

We start the new month with Thursday's...

3.35 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kayf Adventure @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m5.5f on Heavy ground worth £15,335 to the winner...

Why?

Philip Hobbs' 7 yr old gelding has 4 wins and 3 places from 10 starts so far, having previously won in bumpers, over hurdles and also over fences where he has 2 wins and a place from just four efforts including a win last time out. That was 26 days ago also here at Wincanton, also on heavy ground and although he's being asked to run an extra furlong today, he has previously won at this trip and further.

He has three wins from four heavy ground runs and has made the frame in each of the four races with Richard Johnson on his back, winning twice and with a good record in small fields (3 wins and a place from 4 in fields of less than 7 runners), there shouldn't be any fear of the unknown today.

Since 2011, the Hobbs/Johnson partnership is 66 from 352 (18.7% SR) for 79.4pts (+22.5% ROI) in Class 2/3 handicap chases, all with male runners and these include...

  • 7 to 9 yr olds at 47/222 (21.2%) for 83.7pts (+37.7%)
  • from November to march : 41/185 (22.2%) for 117.8pts (+63.7%)
  • 21-45 days since last run : 30/154 (19.5%) for 33.6pts (+21.8%)
  • and those dropping in class are 19/90 (21.1%) for 50.4pts (+56%)

This drop in class is also quite significant, as Philip's NH Handicap class droppers are 44/241 (18.3% SR) for 95.9pts (+39.8% ROI), which alone would have made the horse of interest, even more so when those last seen 21-45 days earlier are 23/13 (20.4%) for 99.7pts (+88.2%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Kayf Adventure @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd December 2017

Friday's Result :

7.15 Wolverhampton : Gracious John @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1 Half reared start, chased leader, led 4f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely, all out to win by a short head.

Last one before Christmas is Saturday's...

2.45 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Three Faces West @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m7.5f on Heavy ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

...and an ultra-consistent 9 yr old gelding with plenty about him and his trainer to like under today's conditions.

He was a decent 4th of 14 on debut almost 3 yrs ago and in 11 subsequent races has notched up 10 top 3 finishes (PU in the other!), winning on 6 occasions so far. He's 3 from 7 over fences, winning 3 of his last 5 over the past 21 months. He won here at Haydock on heavy ground by 13 lengths in a Class 2 contest 13 months ago, before ending that campaign with a follow up win by 13 lengths at Newbury last December.

He made his reappearance in a Grade 3 race at Cheltenham last month over a longer trip than usual/today and wasn't disgraced in finishing third. In his defence, he was running off the back of a 339-day absence, but now has the benefit of a run under his belt and drops down in both class and trip.

Now, shall we have some numbers? To date, this one has achieved the following of relevance today...

  • 3/8 on soft/heavy (1/4 over fences)
  • 6/7 after a break of less than 6 weeks (3/4 over fences)
  • 4/7 going left handed (2/3 over fences)
  • 3/6 under jockey Richard Johnson (all over fences)
  • 3/4 at Class 2 (3/3 over fences)
  • 3/4 in fields of 8-11 runners (1/2 over fences)
  • 2/3 over a 3m trip (all over fences)
  • 2/3 here at Haydock (1/1  over fences)
  • 2/3 in cheekpieces (all over fences)
  • and 1/4 on heavy (1/2 over fences)

And what of his trainer? Well, step forward Philip Hobbs, whose NH handicappers running on heavy during the main jumps season (Oct-Apr) are 22/110 (20% SR) for 29.3pts (+26.6% ROI) over the last four years, including...

  • those priced at 5/2 to 10/1 : 18/72 (25%) for 58.5pts (+81.3%)
  • chasers are 11/57 (19.3%) for 17.1pts (+30%)
  • under Richard Johnson : 12/56 (21.4%) for 12.5pts (+22.4%)
  • over trips of 2m7f to 3m1f : 6/30 (20%) for 9.98pts (+33.3%)
  • and at Class 2 : 5/24 (20.8%) for 8pts (33.3%)

Plus, it's a Saturday... And that's the day the big guns come to play and the best/most competitive racing takes place, making it generally harder to find a winner. Yet Mr Hobbs' Class 2 handicap chasers are 24/134 (17.9% SR) for 44pts (+32.8% ROI) on Saturdays since 2010 and that's more than his fair share of winners and a decent chunk of profit. In respect of today's contest, those 134 Saturday runners are...

  • 17/68 (25%) for 38.4pts (+56.5%) under Richard Johnson
  • 12/43 (27.9%) for 56.1pts (+130.5%) over 2m7.5f to 3m1f
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 6.55pts (+59.6%) on heavy ground.

Want/need more convincing? OK, I've plenty, but I'll cap this off by reminding you that our boy drops down in class to Class 2 today, because since 2011, the Hobbs' Class 2 to 4 handicap chasers dropping down in class are 38/217 (17.5% SR) for 55.8pts (+25.7% ROI), including...

  • with Richard Johnson in the saddle : 26/117 (22.2%) for 65.6pts (+56%)
  • over 2m6.5f to 3m1f : 15/71 (21.1%) for 72.3pts (+101.8%)
  • and over 2m6.5f to 3m1f with Richard Johnson in the saddle : 10/42 (23.8%) for 56.1pts (+133.6%)

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Three Faces West @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Hills & Ladbrokes at 6.00pm on Friday with plenty of acceptable 10/3 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.15 Taunton : Workbench @ 11/2 BOG non-runner Reason: Self Cert (Off Colour)

Next up is Friday's...

3.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 3m0.5f on Good ground worth £3,899 to the winner...

And a 5 yr old Mare sired by Midnight Legend, whose female handicap hurdlers racing over 2m3f to 3m1.5f are 86/580 (14.8% SR) for 248pts (+42.8% ROI) since 2009, including...

  • in female only races : 42/221 (19%) for 74.32pts (+33.6%)
  • at class 4 : 37/221 (16.7%) for 131.3pts (+59.4%)
  • 5 yr olds are 23/120 (19.2%) for 40.9pts (+34.1%)
  • and here at Doncaster : 4/13 (30.8%) for 6.1pts (+46.7%)

She's trained by Philip Hobbs and drops down a class today and over the last 4 yrs, runners from the yard dropping down a grade in NH handicaps are 33/190 (17.4% SR) for 82.2pts (+43.2% ROI), from which...

  • hurdlers are 13/71 (18.3%) for 62.5pts (+88.1%)
  • and females are 5/11 (45.5%) for 21.5pts (+195.1%)

She's also Philip's only runner of the day, yet embarks on a 470-mile round trip from the Somerset base and this is relevant, because over the last 6 years, when having just one runner, Mr Hobbs is 70/312 (22.4% SR) for 60.3pts (+19.3% ROI), whilst in NH handicaps during December to February on tracks 200 miles or more away from his yard, the Hobbs runners are 10/55 (18.2% SR) for 33.2pts (+60.4% ROI), from which...

  • hurdlers are 5/25 (20%) for 26.6pts (+106.4%)
  • here at Doncaster : 6/19 (31.6%) for 39.1pts (+205.7%)
  • and Doncaster hurdlers are 4/10 (40%) for 39.12pts (+391.2%)

..pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Bet365 at 5.45pm on Thursday whilst both Betfred & Totesport matched that price despite not going BOG until morning and there's plenty of acceptable 5/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.40 Wetherby : Early Retirement @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 Held up in touch in 4th place, led 3 out, clear before last, soon ridden, kept on and headed towards finish, beaten by a length.

Next up is Monday's...

2.40 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, handicap hurdle over 2m 4.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,120 to the winner.

This horse interests me from several angles, so I'll try to keep each strand of interest pretty brief...

Trainer Philip Hobbs is 10 from 24 in the last 2 weeks, so we know the yard is in decent nick.

This often tends to be the case, as in November & December of 2012-17, his hurdlers are 86/416 (20.7% SR) for 354.5pts (+85.2% ROI) with handicap hurdlers winning 18 of 98 (18.4%) for 81.1 pts (+82.8%) in November.

He doesn't send many here to Plumpton, but since the start of last year he's 4 from 11 at this venue with his hurdlers winning 4 of 9 and he sends just one here today, who also happens to be his only runner anywhere.

On days since the start of 2012, when Mr Hobbs is represented by a single NH runner, he has 70 winners from 307 (22.8% SR) for 65.3pts (+21.3% ROI).

This one is likely to go off as favourites and since 2103 the yard is 48/149 (32.2% SR) for 30.5pts (+20.5% ROI) with handicap hurdle favourites.

And away from just the Hobbs yard, I'll close with a more general stat : NH handicap hurdles / 2012-17 / 5 to 7 yr olds / carrying 11-13 to 12-02 = 60/187 (32.1% SR) for 61.4pts (+32.9% ROI) with favourites winning 57/170 (33.5%) for 56.5pts (+33.3%)

...but first ... a 1pt win bet on Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 8.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th February 2017

Friday's Result :

3.10 Kempton : Vyta du Roc @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 15/8 Tracked leaders, mistake 10th, jumped left and hit 3 out, no impression next, blundered last.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

4.10 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Vieux Lille @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a runner-up over this same trip on soft ground in a Class 2 contest when last seen 8 weeks ago at Haydock, beaten only by Yala Enki who has since stepped up to finish fourth in a Grade 3 race off a mark of 141, whilst our runner now drops down in class to C3 to run off 133 here.

Trainer Philip Hobbs is in decent form with 9 winners from 34 (26.5% SR) over the last fortnight and here at Newbury since 2011, he has had 29 winners from 175 (16.6% SR) for excellent level stakes profits of 237.6pts at an ROI of 135.8%.

These 175 runners include the following of interest today...

  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 26/116 (22.4%) for 271pts (+233.6%)
  • in chases : 15/77 (19.5%) for 60.1pts (+78.1%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/72 (18.1%) for 104.8pts (+145.5%)
  • on soft ground : 12/57 (21.1%) for 79.1pts (+138.7%)

And more generally, the Hobbs handicappers dropping in class are 39/218 (17.9% SR) for 94.4pts (+43.3% ROI) since 2014, from which...

  • those dropping 1 class are 29/157 (18.5%) for 91.3pts (+58.1%)
  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 21/106 (19.8%) for 45.2pts (+42.6%)
  • those dropping from Class 2 are 12/63 (19.1%) for 14.3pts (+22.7%)
  • and on Soft ground : 11/52 (21.2%) for 72.4pts (+139.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Vieux Lille @ 10/3 BOG which was available with both Bet365 & BetVictor at 8.10pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard