Tag Archives: Oisin Murphy

Stat of the Day, 28th October 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.30 Leopardstown : Flower Garland @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Soon raced in 4th, pushed along into straight and effort, 3rd inside final furlong, kept on without reaching winner, grabbed 2nd on line)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bryn Du @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 2 yr old colt is William Haggas' only runner of the day and is due to be ridden by Oisin Murphy who is 39/192 (20.3% SR) for 35.1pts (+18.3% ROI) in handicaps here at Kempton in the evens to 10/1 price range since the start of 2017, including of relevance today...

  • 23/95 (24.2%) for 44.7pts (+47%) on runners placed in the first three last time out
  • 14/63 (22.2%) for 28.7pts (+45.5%) on those last seen 11-20 days earlier
  • 12/55 (21.8%) for 19.8pts (+36%) at Class 6
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 29.9pts (+106.8%) from those placed in the first three LTO, 11-20 days earlier
  • and 6/15 (40%) for 8.11pts (+54.1%) on 2 yr olds...

...but as the jockey isn't the main focus here today, we should now take a closer look at the trainer, the esteemed Mr William Haggas, whose own personal records include 22 winners from 81 (27.2% SR) for profits of 13.7pts at an ROI of 16.9% with runners sent off at odds of 5/4 to 5/1 on this track since the start of 2016 and these include of note today...

  • 17/53 (32.1%) for 24.5pts (+46.2%) during September to January
  • 15/50 (30%) for 13.5pts (+27%) from male runners
  • 12/40 (30%) for 14.7pts (+36.7%) from those in the first three home LTO
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 6.4pts (+24.6%) with horses rested for 11-25 days
  • 4/8 (50%) for 9.25pts (+115.7%) at Class 6
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 4.16pts (+83.2%) with 2 yr olds

...whilst males racing during Sept-Jan after a top 3 finish LTO are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 17.3pts (+123.6% ROI) profit. 

Bryn Du has run on Tapeta and Turf so far in his short 5-race career and now tackles Polytrack for the first time, so it's worth noting that William Haggas' 2-5 yr olds with 1-6 previous career runs are 66 from 176 (37.5% SR) for 46.2pts (+26.2% ROI) since the start of 2017 when tackling a new A/W surface for the first time, including...

  • 64/140 (45.7%) for 59.4pts (+42.5% ROI) at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 61/153 (39.9%) for 60.3pts (+39.4%) with horses rested for more than 15 days
  • 42/105 (40%) for 30.6pts (+29.1%) with male runners
  • 34/99 (34.3%) for 16.9pts (+17%) on Polytrack
  • 25/62 (40.3%) for 34.1pts (+55%) in handicaps
  • 17/42 (40.5%) for 11.24pts (+26.8%) during October & November
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%) at Class 6

...with males sent off shorter than 6/1 after being rested for more than 15 days winning 38 of 79 (48.1% SR) for 49pts (+62% ROI)...

And finally (!) for today, it might not have been the yard's plan to have just one runner, but the UK weather has made it that way, but since the start of 2016, when the Haggas yard's only runner of the day was a handicapper sent off at 7/1 or shorter, they've had 25 winners from 72 (34.7% SR) for 25.4pts (+35.3% ROI) profit with the bulk of the success coming on the All-Weather at 20/46 (43.5% SR) for 39.6pts (+86.1% ROI), from which...

  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.39pts (+114%) over trips of 6-7 furlongs
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 15.66pts (+142.4%) here at Kempton
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 4.68pts (+156%) at Class 6...

...all of which steered me to...a 1pt win bet on Bryn Du @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, or 11/4 non-BOG from Hills at 4.30pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th October 2019

Thursday's pick was...

8.00 Kempton : Chicago Doll @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders on inside, went 2nd over 1f out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Platinum Star @ 11/4 BOG

...in the 13-runner, Group 3, Cornwallis Stakes for 2yo over 5f on Good to Soft ground worth £34,026 to the winner...

Why?...

This 2 yr old Colt was only beaten by half a length in the Windsor Castle at Ascot on his only previous start over 5f. Since then, he was a runner-up in the Gr2 July Stakes (only beaten by a short head) and then got back to winning ways via a dominant display at Ripon in a Listed contest over 6f LTO, 46 days ago.

He quickened clear to score comfortably by four lengths that day and this colt by Lope De Vega has proven that he handles varying ground conditions, whilst the drop in trip should be fine after that display at Ascot in the summer. His record on turf includes 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from 5 starts and I'd expect him to go 3 from 6 today,

His trainer, Saeed bin Suroor, has got his horses in really good nick at the latter end of the season as shown by these current form stats...

  • 14 from 46 (30.4% SR) over the last 30 days
  • 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) over the past fortnight
  • and 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) over the last 7 days

Oisin Murphy is set to take the ride today and he is 16 from 50 (32% SR) for 16.54pts (+33.1% ROI) on Saeed bin Suroor trained runners this year, from which...

  • 12/34 (35.3%) for 20.1pts (+59.2%) on Turf
  • 9/20 (45%) for 21.7pts (+108.5%) since the start of September
  • and 6/12 (50%) for 19.4pts (+161.3%) on turf since September 1st...

...whilst more long-term (ie since the start of 2015), the pair are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 25.4pts (+158.9% ROI) on the Rowley track here at HQ, including...

  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 17.93pts (+137.9%) with male runners
  • 6/12 (50%) for 17.55pts (+146.3%) during September & October
  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.9pts (+278%) in 13/14 runner fields
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.53pts (+317.5%) at Class 1, all of which were males in Sept/Oct!

...which all points to... a 1pt win bet on Platinum Star @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 5.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

6.50 Chelmsford : Cantiniere @ 5/1 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on towards finish, beaten 1 1/4 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fashion Free @ 2/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 2yo over 7f on Standard ground worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

A Premier League trainer and Championship-seeking jockey partner up for today's Stat of the Day.

Fashion Free, the filly in question, is having her second start in a handicap. She ran extremely well from stall 13 (car park) at Pontefract on 'cap bow, finishing third, and might have won with a kinder draw. But that's form rather than stats.

The key stat is Oisin Murphy riding for Archie Watson.

In the last year, they've combined 88 times for 21 wins (24%, +16.44) and 44 places (50%). That has an IV of 2.29 (more than twice as likely to win together than the average). At Lingfield in the past five years, this A Team is 11 from 32 (34.38%, +9.31, A/E 1.25, IV 2.88).

Archie has a 19% hit rate second time in a handicap (A/E 1.2, IV 1.83) and his recent form has been very good: better than first appearance.

Specifically, a rate of 7 from 43 in the past fortnight is reasonable rather than exciting. But that masks a huge 51% place rate, suggesting Team Watson is in great form but suffering that 'orrible variance thing.

Down a grade and up a furlong both look positives...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fashion Free @ 2/1 BOG as was available at 6pm on Tuesday with skybet. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.50 Salisbury : El Borracho @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/1 (Dwelt, behind, headway over 3f out, chased leaders over 2f out, soon weakened

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hats Off To Larry@ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £5208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was a decent fifth of ten in a far better contest than this last time out. He was only two lengths off the pace that day at Sandown 10 days ago and now drops two classes and run off a mark eased by two pounds today.

He currently has a good record in Flat handicaps, having fur wins and three places from twelve efforts and with today's contest in mind, those runs include...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 over trips of 8.5 to 10.5 furlongs
  • 4 wins from 6 on tracks deemed as "flat"
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 after a break of 8 to 28 days
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 at Class 4
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 in fields of 8 runners or less
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 7 at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 at this 1m2f trip
  • 2 wins from 4 on Good to Firm ground
  • 2 wins from 2 here at Windsor
  • 2 wins from 2 in Class 4 races worth less than £6,000
  • and 2 wins from 2 over course and distance

No disrespect intended to Nicola Currie, who not only rode the horse very well last time out, but is also certainly a fine, talented jockey overall, but the booking of Oisin Murphy today is a positive move to me, as he has already ridden 11 winners from 40 (27.5% SR) in handicaps on this track this season with a 1pt level stake bet on each of the 40 generating 19.04pts profit at an ROI of 47.6% and those 40 rides include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 26.04pts (+78.9%) at classes 3 to 5
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 31.33pts (+142.4%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 16.07pts (+59.5%) on male runners
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 26.29pts (+146.1%) over trips of 10 to 11.5 furlongs
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 3.28pts (+21.9%) at Class 4
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.08pts (+89.8%) over this 1m2f course and distance...

...whilst on male runners in fields of 7-11 at Classes 3 to 5 over trips of 10 to 11,5 furlongs, Oisin is 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 21.9pts (+243.4% ROI), including 4 from 7 over this 1m2f C&D, 3 from 6 at Class 4 and 3 from 5 (60%) for 7.19pts (+143.8%) over course and distance at Class 4.

Oisin doesn't get to ride many of trainer Mick Channon's horses and I'd guess that's down to other contractual obligations on both sides,because it's certainly not down to a lack of success, as since 2015, the duo are 7 from 15 (46.7% SR) for 44.8pts (+298.9% ROI) on horses sent off shorter than 12/1 and this includes 5 winners from 9 (55.6%) for 35.4pts (+392.8%) in handicaps...

...which all points towards... a 1pt win bet on Hats Off To Larry@ 11/4 BOG as offered by Bet365 & Skybet at 6.40pm on Sunday, although better on a non-BOG basis was available. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th July 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.20 Yarmouth : Soloist @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Raced wide close up, pushed along over 3f out, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Guildsman @ 7/2 BOG

...in the 8-runner, Group 2, Tattersalls July Stakes for 2yo over 6f on Good To Firm worth £45368 to the winner... 

Why?...

As one of my rare forays to Group racing (and an even rarer 2yo pick), I'm looking to this 2yr old Colt who won very comfortably on debut, winning by 6 lengths over this 6f trip at Goodwood, ahead of a very good 3rd of 17 runners in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes over 6f 23 days ago.

He was only half a length off the winner Arizona that day and it's worth knowing that the last six horses to run in this race directly after making the frame in the Coventry have finished 233221 here, so it's a useful guide.

As with this colt's previous two runs, Oisin Murphy is in the saddle and the trip is 6f, so there's some continuity there.

Stat-wise, I'm always interested to see trainer Archie Watson's late season 2 yr olds, especially those racing on the Flat over 5f to 10f. Since 2016, during the months of July to October, such runners sent off at odds of Evens to 15/2 within 60 days of their last run are 22 from 56 (39.3% SR) for 36.25pts (+64.7% ROI), from which the following dozen angles are applicable/relevant today...

  • 19/41 (46.3%) for 43.56pts (+106.2%) with fewer than 5 previous runs
  • 14/36 (38.9%) for 14.16pts (+39.3%) in non-hcps
  • 13/24 (54.2%) for 35.32pts (+147.2%) over 6f
  • 11/21 (52.4%) for 21.23pts (+101.1%) at 16-25 days since last run
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 5.05pts (+23%) from male runners
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 11.9pts (+51.7%) at the same class as LTO
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 15.2pts (+101.3%) in July
  • 6/12 (50%) for 16.55pts (+137.9%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 18.62pts (+206.9%) with Oisin Murphy aboard
  • 3/4 (75%) for 18.38pts (+459.5%) who ran in a Group race LTO
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.29pts (+476.2%) ran at Gr 2 LTO
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 4.09pts (+409%) in Gr 2 races...

...from which... those with fewer than five previous outings now racing over 6f in non-handicaps after a break of 16-25 days are 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 12.18pts (+203% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Guildsman @ 7/2 BOG as offered by pretty much everyone and his dog at 6.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.30 Wolverhampton : Tha'ir @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (With leader, keen, led over 5f out, hung right and headed over 1f out, kept on under pressure)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Telecaster @ 5/1 BOG

...in the 13-runner, Group 1, Investec Derby for 3yo over 1m4f  on Good ground worth a mere £921,537 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced (just three runs so far) colt has excellent breeding as you'd expect, he's the son of a Derby winner out of an Oaks runner-up and has finished 211 in his runs so far, the latest being a win in the Gr 2 Dante at York over 10.5 furlongs 16 days ago under today's jockey Oisin Murphy who is now 2 from 2 on the horse.

Overall, Oisin has 18 wins from 89 (20.2% SR) for 44pts (+49.4% ROI) for trainer Hughie Morrison, for which...

  • he is 14/48 (29.2%) for 55.9pts (+116.4%) on 3 yr olds
  • 9/23 (27.3%) for 42.1pts (+127.7%) during 2018/19
  • and 7/21 (33.3%) for 50pts (+238.3%)

Hughie himself has a 19.7% strike rate since 2010 on this uniquely quirky track, acquired via 12 winners from 61 yielding 45.2pts profit at an excellent ROI of 74.1% backed blindly and these include 6 from 22 (27.3%) for 27.1pts (+123.2%) since the start of the 2017 campaign.

And during 2017-19, Hughie's LTO winners sent off at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 (we should be safe here) after at least 2 weeks rest are 14 from 54 (25.9% SR) for 45.2pts (+83.8% ROI), from which the following are relevant today...

  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 47pts (+123.6%) on the Flat
  • 10/30 (33.3%) for 34.2pts (+114.1%) from male runners
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 42pts (+182.4%) during March to July
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 31pts (134.8%) from 3 yr olds
  • 4/8 (50%) for 31.5pts (+393.7%) at Class 1
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 11.5pts (+191.8%) over 1m4f

...and the above includes 5 winners from 6 (83.3% SR) for 25.46pts (+424.3% ROI) from 3 yr old males on the Flat in May/June...

And finally for today, I want to look at the general make-up of a Derby winner, as our pick is favoured by the the facts that the last 22 Derby winners included...

  • 22 with no previous run at the trip
  • 22 with no previous run at Epsom
  • 20 were last seen 2-5 weeks earlier
  • 18 were sent off at 7/1 and shorter
  • 17 had ran 3-5 times that season
  • 17 were drawn in stall 10 or a single digit
  • 15 were LTO winners
  • 12 had a maximum previous run of 1m2f/1m2.5f
  • 11 had a maximum previous winning trip of 1m2f/1m2.5f

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Telecaster @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Unibet at 6.05pm on Friday with plenty of 9/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.10 Salisbury : Bella Vita @ 9/2 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up in touch, headway to chase leaders over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.75 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gumball @ 9/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Good ground worth £18675 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was 3 from 9 over hurdles before switching to "level ground" in late February this year and is now 3 from 3 on the Flat/AW after 2 wins over 1m4f at Class 5, before landing a similar Class 3, 1m6f contest to today's when last seen 19 days ago at Salisbury, clear by 2 lengths and looking comfortable.

With regards to today's challenge, he is...

  • 6 from 9 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 6 from 6 at Class 3 or below
  • 3 from 4 going right handed
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 in 2m hurdle contests, so stamina shouldn't be an issue
  • 2 from 3 on Good ground
  • and 2 from 2 under today's jockey Oisin Murphy

He is trained by Philip Hobbs, best known for his NH runners, of course, but has dabbled successfully in the past 10 years with hurdlers running on the Flat/AW and over the last two years, his Flat/AW runners are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 8.36pts (+92.4% ROI) at trips of 1m4f to 1m6f, all of them male, including...

  • 5 from 7 at 4/1 and shorter
  • 4 from 7 in the February to June period
  • and 4 from 6 with 5 yr olds

And more generally, since 2014, in Flat handicaps over 2m or shorter, horses racing off the back of three consecutive wins are 104/502 (20.7% SR) for 96.7pts (+19.3% ROI) and these include of relevance/note today...

  • last 3 runs/wins all "on the level" : 99/482 (20.5%) for 85.8pts (+17.8%)
  • males are 78/378 (20.6%) for 101.3pts (+26.8%)
  • from March to August : 83/375 (22.1%) for 124.3pts (+33.2%)
  • 16-25 dslr : 26/125 (20.8%) for 55.4pts (+44.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 17/75 (22.7%) for 79.7pts (+106.3%)
  • over 1m6f to 2m : 15/55 (27.3%) for 27.9pts (+50.7%)
  • and this year alone : 7/11 (63.6%) for 18.15pts (+165%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gumball @ 9/4 BOG which was quite widely available at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2018

Friday's Pick was...

2.25 Catterick : Scented Lily @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Held up behind, headway when hit 7th, driven to chase front pair before 2 out, soon ridden, never on terms, weakened last) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

8.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fume @ 7/2 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 5,  A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

I'm away for the weekend and I've got connectivity issues, so I'll keep this relatively brief, but rest assured the usual amount of research has gone into the pick!

Here we have a 2 yr old gelding (son of Frankel) who carries top weight (9st 9lbs off a mark of 72) who drops down in class after only being beaten by a neck in a Class 4, 7f Nursery at Kempton 10 days ago. The drop in class is a positive as is the booking of Oisin Murphy to take the ride, as Oisin is in good nick and has a decent record at this venue.

There are three main angles of interest with this horse/race today, starting with...

...this horse has never been to Wolverhampton or raced on Tapeta before but since the start of 2014, trainer Ralph Beckett's (who also does well here) 2/3 yr olds with 1-7 previous career runs are 52 from 205 (25.4% SR) for 70.7pts (+34.5% ROI) when trying a new A/W surface for the first time, including 16 from 62 (25.8%) for 19.6pts (+31.6%) here at Wolverhampton.

*

Then we have the fact that since the start of 2013, top weights in Wolverhampton Nursery races are 44 from 219 (20.1% SR) for 45.7pts (+20.9% ROI), from which those carrying 9st 7lbs or more are 39/170 (22.9%) for 68.7pts (+40.4%).

*

And finally, we know that both jockey and trainer are in decent form and both have fared well at this venue in recent years. Surprisingly, they have very rarely teamed up here at Wolverhampton, but overall when working together, they are 41 from 216 (19% SR) for 59.6pts (+27.6% ROI) since the start of 2014...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fume @ 7/2 BOG , prices offered by Bet365, BetVictor & BlackType respectively at 8.20pm on Friday evening. (extra half point is available from sky) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.00 Ascot : The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Slowly into stride, held up towards rear of mid-division, some headway under pressure over 1f out, never on terms) - I also highlighted the stats regarding Stradivarius & Thomas Hobson in the 1.25 race, they finished 1st and 2nd at Evens and 14/1 respectively with the forecast paying 15/1.

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Soft (Gd to Soft in places and sunshine is forecast) ground worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a 3yr old filly running consistently well this season with 2 wins and 3 places (32112) from five starts in Flat handicaps so far, including finishing 311 over this 10f trip and she has one win and one runner-up finish on good to soft ground.

Her trainer Ralph Beckett has his string in fine order right now, winning 12 of 55 (21.8% SR) for 5.88pts (+10.7% ROI) over the last 30 days and these include of relevance today...

  • 7/28 (25%) for 8.3pts (+29.6%) in handicaps
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 17.2pts (+71.8%) from his 3 yr olds
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 7.03pts (+37%) at Class 4
  • 6/15 (40%) for 16.93pts (+112.8%) over trips of 10 to 12.5 furlongs

In addition to the above short-term success, Ralph has done very well here at Windsor for a long time with 28 handicap winners from 144 (19.4%) generating 40pts (+27.8% ROI) profit over the last 10 years and with today's race in mind, those 144 runners include...

  • 3 yr olds : 20/105 (19.1%) for 18.9pts (+18%)
  • at trips of 8.5f and beyond : 21/102 (20.6%) for 28.48pts (+27.9%)
  • since 2012 : 21/96 (21.9%) for 17.7pts (+18.4%)
  • females are 16/71 (22.5%) for 40.5pts (+57%)
  • at Class 4 : 12/63 (19.1%) for 18.9pts (+18%)
  • on Good to Soft/Soft ground : 8/34 (23.5%) for 30.9pts (+90.9%)
  • in October : 4/20 (20%) for 10.56pts (+52.8%)
  • and those ridden by today's jockey, Oisin Murphy, are 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.53pts (+75.5%)

And with regards to our jockey today...Oisin is 39 from 212 (18.4% SR) for 57.6pts (+27.2% ROI) on the Beckett horses over the last 5 years, from which he is...

  • 15/87 (17.2%) for 27.4pts (+31.5%) on 3 yr olds
  • 21/84 (25%) for 76.7pts (+91.4%) in handicaps
  • and 11/45 (24.4%) for 76.6pts (+54.8%) on 3 yr old handicappers...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by BetVictor, Coral, SkyBet & Unibet at 5.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2018

Friday's Pick was...

5.15 Haydock : Lightning Attack @ 6/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG  

...in the 14-runner, Class 1, Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £358691 to the winner... 

Why?

Much has already been written elsewhere about this horse & race by far more knowledgeable people than me, so I'll keep this fairly brief, as not to repeat too much information that you've already been given.

This 6 yr old gelding is in good nick (as always, it would seem!) having finished 141 in his three runs this season and with those wins coming on Good to Firm and also on Heavy, I'm not sure there's any ground he won't go on!

He won a Group 1 last time out, 6 weeks ago, when partnered by today's jockey Oisin Murphy for the first time and Oisin himself is in good form as I'll touch upon shortly.

The Tin Man has won 9 times (plus 2 places) from 19 starts to date and this includes 5 wins from 7 at 4/1 and shorter, 4 wins from 5 as a favourite, 3 wins (and 2 places) from 10 Group 1 efforts and 3 wins from 7 here at Ascot.

Now back to our jockey, Oisin Murphy who has enjoyed a pretty constant strike rate of around 20% over the last few months, actually winning 80 of 398 (20.1% SR) for 27.8pts (+7% ROI) over the last 90 days, including...

  • 4/10 (40%) for 16pts (+160%) at Group 1
  • 4/8 (50%) for 17.04pts (+213%) for trainer James Fanshawe.

And more generally, in Class 1 Flat races over the last 6 seasons, previous C1 winners with a career strike rate of 25% or higher are 37/174 (21.3% SR) for 167.6pts (+96.3% ROI) when running at the same class or up by 1 or 2 grades some 31-75 days after a top 3 finish LTO.

Stradivarius & Thomas Hobson also both fit this bill in the previous race, but with regards to our contest, those 174 runners are...

  • males : 27/119 (22.7%) for 162.7pts (+136.7%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 24/108 (22.2%) for 162.5pts (+150.5%)
  • prizes of £100k or more : 20/87 (23%) for 164.1pts (+188.6%)
  • at Ascot : 13/63 (20.6%) for 20.2pts (+32.1%)
  • 12-17 runners in race : 12/45 (26.7%) for 177pts (+393.3%)
  • over 5-7 furlongs : 11/45 (24.4%) for 164.6pts (+365.7%)
  • and those with a 25-50% strike rate at the track : 7/25 (28%) for 11.3pts (+45.2%)

Of the above 7 criteria, Stradivarius hits numbers 1,3,4 and 7, whilst Thomas Hobson hits 1,2,3,4 & 7, but our pick today ticks all those boxes...

...so our advice is... a 1pt win bet on The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG , as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!