Tag Archives: Nottingham

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2012

Stat of the Day 17/10

Stat of the Day 17/10

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2012

Well, Barista certainly gave it his all yesterday, but didn't quite have enough in his locker to see off the imperious Richard Hughes on board a well-fancied odds-on jolly. We expected that to be the main danger, but we had taken 8/1 E/W on an eventual 9/2 shot, so the value was certainly there and we picked up another 0.3pts for our troubles. It was, of course, an easy forecast for many of you and the CSF paid £4.87 and the Exacta paid £6.80, so fair play / well done to those of you on that.

Just a short trip for SotD today, a mere 30 miles up the A46 from yesterday's race at Leicester, we pitch ourselves at Colwick Park for a 16-runner, 10-furlong, Class 3 Handicap on Soft (Good to Soft in places) ground, better known to you as the...

3.15 Nottingham

As you've probably all gathered by now, I'm a bit of a numbers geek and today post will further reinforce that theory!

Firstly when it comes top analysing recent trainer form in Nottingham handicaps, Michael Appleby has been represented in more races than any of the other top 15 trainers in action today, so we're getting a decent sample size to work from. In the last two years, Michael has sent twenty runners to compete in these type of events and his record stands up to the best of them. A win strike rate of 30% via 6 winners producing level stakes profits of 54pts (270% profit) makes him the most successful in terms of profits and the 3rd highest strike rate. His place strike is also excellent with 10 of the 20 making the frame and backing all twenty as E/W bets would have netted a cool 71pts profit.

So, we've got a trainer, we now need a horse!  Well, quite a chunk of any profit made by Mr Appleby here at Nottingham has come from today's selection Art Scholar.

Art Scholar is 2 from 2 at Nottingham over course & distance, including a comfortable-enough win on his last outing a week ago, where he came in at 25/1 beating the runner-up by the best part of 2 lengths and staying on/pulling away at the end. Incidentally, we'd backed the 3rd place horse at 12/1 E/W for SotD that day, so Art Scholar caught my eye then.

The horse himself is in cracking form aside from last week's win: 8 wins from his last 25 races over the last 16 months or so, including two at 25/1, two at 9/1 and two at 6/1, helping him to a level stakes profit of some 67pts from 25 races. A further four place-finishes and four fourth-places have meant he has only been out of the top four on nine of those 25 outings: a very good level of consistency. (That's a lot of fours, sorry!)

Art Scholar is also 4 from 8 at today's trip and last week's win was on similar Good to Soft ground that he'll encounter today. All in all, I think he has an excellent chance of putting in another good show for us.

He does carry a 6lb penalty for last week's victory and this is reflected in his price today, but the 10/1 BOG currently available at Stan James looks generous (he's as low as 13/2 in places and 8/1 generally) and as a 16-runner race, we're aiming for another top four finish (1/4 odds paid for the place). So, for me (and SotD records) it's 0.5pts E/W on Art Scholar at 10/1 BOG with Stan James, but you really should take time to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.15 Nottingham.

P.S. Michael Appleby has another handicapper on the card today: as Demora runs in the 4.20 race. She was a 14/1 winner last time out at Bath (5 weeks ago), but she runs from 1lb out of the handicap today and whilst having a chance of a place, she'll find it tougher today. She is however, available at 14/1 BOG with Paddy Power, if you were so inclined.


Stat of the Day, 10th October 2012

Stat of the Day 10/10

Stat of the Day 10/10

Stat of the Day, 10th October 2012

A gutsy run from Eamaadd yesterday who looked comfortable in the lead until around the 7 furlong mark, when Andrea Atzeni then had to get work to try and drive our mount home over the final two furlongs. Unfortunately, he was swamped by two faster finishers, losing the lead inside the final furlong and then losing 2nd position on the line.

Fortunately we'd taken 8/1 E/W about what was eventually a 7/2 shot, so the value was definitely there, as was a trading opportunity (traded as low as evens in play!). So it was a small 0.3pts profit on the race, but it's still 30% in 2 minutes and it's another placer for Roger Varian at Wolverhampton making 16/23!

We're not travelling far from Wolverhampton for today's contest, just 60 miles or so to the North East for a 13-runner (was 16!), 10-furlong Class 4 Handicap aka the...

4.30 Nottingham

Luca Cumani doesn't run many horses in handicap company at Nottingham, but when he does, the results are generally very good. Since May 2010, he has been represented by just 10 handicappers at this track and the results were 1412166221, a 40% win ratio generating 13.1pts profit at SP and a place strike rate of 80%: quite remarkable.

The last of those runs was a course and distance victory at 7/2 for today's selection Dulkashe.

Dulkashe's maiden form was pretty good, placing in each of her three races before improving to land a  fillies' handicap on her return to racing after a 7-month break  in May. She will have needed last month's reappearance (6th of 13 at Sandown) as a pipe-opener and should give a much better account of her self today.

She comes up against a very warm favourite in the shape of Sunpass, who is currently as low as 4/5 in places, but this race is no penalty kick for the favourite and the shortness of that price opens the door to some E/W value. This possible added value, allied to Luca's record of 8 places from 10 steers me towards an E/W bet today.

Having checked the market again, I'm happy to take on the favourite in the knowledge that we can get 11/1 BOG with Stan James, Ladbrokes and William Hill, so it's 0.5pts E/W today on Dulkashe at 11/1 BOG (12/1 non-BOG also available at Sporting Bet) but you can always...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 4.30 Nottingham.

PS Luca Cumani has another handicapper on the course today: Spring Tonic is generally a 4/1 shot in the 5.00 race, but this is an apprentice event, which aren't the most reliable of contests and I think I'd probably want a little more than 4/1 personally.

Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2012

Stat of the Day 02/08

Stat of the Day 02/08

Stat of the Day: 2nd August 2012

It wasn't really a surprise that we kicked August off with a loss, as our selection was a 20/1 E/W shot! Henry's Gift opened up at 12/1 on course ( a little elbow room for the traders amongst us) and was eventually sent off at 16/1. He ran his race and only really ran out of steam in the final furlong, eventually finishing 7th of the 9 runners, but beating a couple far more fancied than he was.

Today, we're on familiar SotD territory: good trainer with a decent course record from a fairly small number of runners, sending out just one horse. The race is a Class 6 Maiden for 3 & 4 yr olds over a mile on good ground. Nine runners are currently set to contest the...

4.45 Nottingham

Our trainer today is the very well-known Luca Cumani, whose record at Nottingham in recent years is pretty good indeed. he doesn't send hundreds of runners to this track, but the ones sent out tend to go well. 26% of them go on to win here and his place strike rate at Nottingham is an excellent 52%. As is often the case with SotD, we're not only focusing on his only Nottingham runner today, but it's also his sole entrant anywhere.

The horse in question is Medici Music, a 50,000 Guinea yearling who made a reasonably impressive impact on debut at Yarmouth 3 weeks ago, finishing second that day. He was just touched off by a 100/1 shot that day who was 6lbs lighter and the ground was probably a little too soft for our selection. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect him to improve quite a bit for that run and his breeding suggests he may well be a half-decent horse. His half-brother won 6 races between seven and nine furlongs, including a Group 2 success.

Our jockey today is Kirsty Milczarek, and this is also her only ride of the day. Incidentally, her last 3 rides for Mr Cumani at Nottingham have yielded two winners and a runner-up.

Not all bookmakers have priced this one up yet, but the 11/4 BOG on offer from bet365 for Medici Music looks appealing enough today, so I'm on that, but you really should...

Click here for the latest odds for the 4.45 Nottingham.