Tag Archives: Nottingham racecourse

Stat of the Day, 1st August 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

7.10 Sandown : Muraad @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Chased leaders on inside, ridden 2f out, weakened soon after, behind and eased final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Music Seeker @ 6/1 non-BOG until morning or 5/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on soft ground worth £6469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has been going well of late, winning twice and placing twice in his last five outings and although he doesn't win often enough win just 4 victories from 26 to date (although very profitable to follow), he should be suited by conditions today as, of the four wins...

  • 3 were over trips of 10/10.5 furlongs
  • 3 were after a break of 2-3 weeks
  • 3 were in fields of 10-14 runners
  • 3 were on left handed tracks
  • 3 came whilst wearing a tongue tie
  • and 3 came in handicaps

But more tellingly for today, he has 3 wins and 2 places from 8 starts on soft ground.

He is trainer Declan Carroll's only runner of the day and by default his only runner here at this venue, that has been a pretty good hunting ground for him in recent years, clocking up 11 wiiners from 68 (16.2% SR) for 145.6pts (+214% ROI) over the last five seasons and once again, for those who don't like blanket betting, I've a dozen profitable angles for you to consider here...

  • 11/61 (18%) for 152.6pts (+250.1%) from male runners
  • 10/57 (17.5%) for 135.1pts (+237%) in handicaps
  • 9/56 (16.1%) for 42.1pts (+75.2%) from 2-5 yr olds
  • 9/48 (18.75%) for 155.3pts (+323.5%) at Classes 3-5
  • 9/40 (22.5%) for 116.8pts (+291.9%) after a break of less than 25 days
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 61.05pts (+277.5%) at 10/10.5 furlongs
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 10pts (+55.4%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 53.6pts (+223.4%) as Declan's only runner at the track
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 61.6pts (+385.1%) as his only runner of the day
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 56.3pts (+375.5%) using a jockey claiming 5-7 lbs
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 5.4pts (+45%) with 5 yr olds
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 9.48pts (+86.2%) on soft ground...

...whilst 2-5 yr old males in Class 3-5 handicaps, 11 to 23 days after their last run are 5 from 13 (38.5% SR) for 18.06pts (+138.9% ROI), including 3/6 (50%) for 14.48pts (+241.3%) over trips of 10/10.5 furlongs.

And as Declan only has this one runner out today, you might be interested to know that his other solo entrants are 27/115 (23.5% SR) for 74.4pts (+64.7% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter in UK handicaps since the start of 2016...

...pointing us towards... a 1pt win bet on Music Seeker @ 6/1 non-BOG until morning (betfair & PP) or 5/1 BOG (widely) as of 6.30pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th July 2019

Thursday's pick was...

5.15 Hamilton : Be Bold @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, driven to chase leaders when not clear run inside final 2f, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong, just held towards finish

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Queen of Kalahari @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm (good in places) ground worth £3234 to the winner...

Why?...

In a race where there are question marks about most of the runners, the form option is our 4 yr old filly, who has finished 2221 in her last four outings over the past 10 weeks or so. All were at Class 6, three over this 6f trip plus a spin over 7f and all in big fields (3 x 13-runners and 1 x 15), so conditions won't be alien to her.

Despite here recent good form, she's still only 2lbs higher in the weights than at the start of the run that culminated in a win over 6f at Hamilton last time out, taking her record on the Flat to 3 wins and 4 other places from 13 runs and these include of relevance today...

  • 3 wins and 3 places from 10 on a straight track
  • 2 wins and 3 places from 8 on Good/Good to Firm ground
  • 1 win and 2 places from 4 in fields of 12-15 runners
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 at Class 6
  • 1 win and 1 place from 4 on Good to Firm
  • finished as runner-up over course and distance on only previous visit to Nottingham

She is trained by Les Eyre, whose runners are 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 20.76pts (+122.1% ROI) here over the last 5 seasons, from which the following angles are at play today...

  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 24.76pts (+190.5%) after a break of less than 40 days
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 26.76pts (+243.3%) at the same class as LTO
  • 3/10 (30%) for 15.02pts (+150.2%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 18.36pts (+262.3%) in fields of 11-14 runners
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 12.09pts (+201.6%) at Class 6
  • 2/5 (40%) for 7.62pts (+152.4%) at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 2/5 (40%) for 11.67pts (+233.4%) at the same distance as LTO
  • and 1/1 in July

...whilst those running on good to firm ground at the same class as their LTO run less than 40 days earlier are 3 from 6 950% SR) for 19.02pts (+317% ROI).

In addition to the above, it's also worth noting that Les Eyre's LTO winners who were subsequently sent off at 7/1 and shorter over a 6f trip less than 40 days later are 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.06pts (+175.7% ROI) on the Flat (all in handicaps), including 3 winners from 4 (75%) for 9.84pts (+246%) on good to firm ground...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Queen of Kalahari @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th June 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

5.50 Kempton : Kingston Kurrajong @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Meeting abandoned due to a lack of water, despite the current UK monsoon)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cent Flying @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Heavy (Soft in places) ground worth £3234 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was a decent second in a higher grade off a higher mark last time out at Brighton 16 days ago and has won 3 of his 12 Flat handicap starts, amongst which he has...

  • 3 from 9 at 5.5/6 furlongs
  • 3 from 9 in fields of less than 12 runners
  • 2 from 6 at Class 6
  • 2 from 9 with a Tongue Tie
  • no run on heavy, but 1 from 1 on Soft

He is trained by William Muir who is 2 from 6 this week alone and since 2012 has saddled up 11 Nottingham winners from just 63 runners (17.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 18.4pts at a reasonable enough ROI of 29.2% from blind backing and whilst 63 isn't a massive sample size, it does throw up some interesting and profitable angles that are at play today, such as...

  • 11 from 44 (25%) for 37.4pts (+85%) from male runners and you could stop there if you wanted to!
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 20.4pts (+88.6%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 9/38 (23.7%) for 33.9pts (+89.2%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 7/45 (15.6%) for 19.1pts (+42.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 35.4pts (+168.4%) at 16-25 days since last run
  • 6/31 (19.4%) for 29.9pts (+96.5%) on the straight track here at Nottingham
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 10.22pts (+92.9%) from those with a top 2 finish LTO
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 38pts (+271.1%) over this 6f course and distance
  • 3/6 (50%) for 9.02pts (+150.3%) on Soft/Heavy ground
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 6.85pts (+62.3%) at Class 6
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 2.16pts (+108%) on heavy ground

If you were to start combining the above factors, you'd quickly dilute the number of qualifiers down to an unworkably low number, but a simple starting point would be to back William Muir's male runners here sent off at 6/1 and shorter within 45 days of their last run for 8 winners from 16 (50% SR) and 23.2pts profit at a healthy ROI of 145.1%...

...which would generate... a 1pt win bet on Cent Flying @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Bet365 & 888Sport at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th May 2019

Thursday's pick was...

1.50 Chester : Copper Knight @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 11/8 (Led, pushed along over 1f out, ridden and headed towards finish, beaten by a length)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.50 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Give It Some Teddy @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m½f on Good To Soft worth £6469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5yr old gelding has won three of his last five starts (four last season and one run this campaign so far) and comes here on a hat-trick after back to back (albeit 184 days apart) wins over 1m at Redcar under today's jockey Duran Fentiman.

They ended last season by winning a 15-runner Class 2 handicap and opened this campaign with a win in a 16-runners Class 4 contest, so he's not afraid of company and he's certainly not likely to be out of his depth class-wise.

Those last two wins have taken his Flat career record to 5 wins from 16 (31.25% SR) including some impressive strike rates under similar conditions to today, such as...

  • 100% (2 from 2) under jockey Duran Fentiman
  • 60% (3/5) on tracks deemed as "flat"
  • 50% (2/4) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 41.7% (5/12) in fields of 11-16 runners
  • 40% (4/10) over 8-9 furlongs
  • 35.7% (5/14) for trainer Tim Easterby
  • 30.8% (4/13) in handicaps
  • and 27.3% (3/11) at Class 4 or better

...whilst running for Tim Easterby in 11-16 runner Flat handicaps over 8-9f = 4/8 (50% SR) for 54.6pts (+682.2% ROI)...

It's also worth noting that Tim Easterby's LTO winners sent off at 9/1 or shorter in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps are 47 from 203 (23.2% SR) for 31.4pts (+15.4% ROI) backed blindly since 2013, but I obviously can't just leave it there, because the following are at play today...

  • 2-5 yr olds are 44/182 (24.2%) for 40pts (+22%)
  • over 6-10 furlongs : 32/114 (28.1%) for 66pts (+57.9%)
  • 2016-19 = 31/124 (25%) for 24.6pts (+19.8%)
  • April-June = 20/69 (29%) for 44.1pts (+63.9%)
  • ridden by Duran Fentiman : 9/31 (29%) for 30.4pts (+97.9%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 9/35 (25.7%) for 16.2pts (+46.3%)

...and 2-5 yr olds over 6-10f in April-June since the start of 2016 are 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 16.6pts (+79.2% ROI) with Duran Fentiman riding 2 winners from 4 (50%) for 17.16pts profit at an ROI of some 429%...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Give It Some Teddy @ 3/1 BOG which was quite widely available at 5.50pm on Thursday, although Bet365 were offering 10/3 BOG for those able/quick enough to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2018

Monday's Pick was...

7.00 Beverley : Desert Ace @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, stayed on one pace)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

6.30 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Classic Pursuit 9/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good To Firm ground worth £3881 to the winner...

Why?

Another nicely priced placer last night, but hopefully we'll fare better with this 7 yr old gelding, who's another one I'm hopeful of ending a long losing spell. This one has 13 defeats on the bounce since his last win, which just happened to be here at Nottingham at this grade over course and distance off today's mark of 68.

After that win, he was raised to 96 and although his mark has been coming down with each defeat since, he's always been weighted out of things. He showed positive signs of a return to form last time out, when a runner-up off today's mark at Doncaster 12 days ago, over today's trip/class/going.

Despite the long losing run, his overall record still shows 5 wins from 21 (23.8% SR) in the July/August period and 2 wins from 9 here at Nottingham, including 2 from 8 over course and distance.

His trainer Mick Appleby is 41 from 243 (16.9% SR) for 176.9pts (+72.8% ROI) in handicaps here at Nottingham since 2011, including...

  • 13 from 78 (16.7%) for 79.6pts (+102.1%) at Class 5
  • 11 from 43 (25.6%) for 54.8pts (+127.5%) over this 5f course and distance

Another positive is that that when jockey Robert Winston has ridden one of the Appleby handicappers priced at 11/1 and shorter, they have 8 wins from 40 (20% SR) for 11.08pts (+27.7% ROI) with the last season and a half showing 6 from 19 (31.6%) for 18.65pts (+98.2%)...

...and today's simplistic approach suggests...a 1pt win bet on Classic Pursuit 9/2 BOGa price available from at least five firms at 5.30pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th July 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.30 Sandown : Euginio @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/4 (Tracked leader, pushed along 3f out, lost 2nd over 1f out, chased leaders, held when not much room and no extra towards finish, beaten by less than a length)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG

In a 7-runner Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m2½f on Good To Firm ground worth £3881 to the winner...

Why?

This 3yr old gelding has won two of his last six runs and his sole turf success came two starts ago in another small field Class 5 handicap on good to firm ground, so conditions won't be alien to him.

Despite not managing to land SotD's 4th winner on the bounce yesterday, I've no hesitation is trusting Silvestre de Sousa with the reins again today. I mentioned yesterday that he was riding well and although he couldn't get Euginio up for us, he did have two more winners on the day.

Like Sandown, Nottingham has been another good venue for this jockey in recent years, where he has won 30 of 158 races (19% SR) for 36.7pts (+23.2% ROI) profit since the start of the 2014 season and with today's race in mind, that record includes...

  • in fields of 5-11 runners : 27/115 (23.5%) for 36.4pts (+31.6%)
  • in handicaps : 18/107 (16.8%) for 16.3pts (+15.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 16/86 (18.6%) for 4.6pts (+5.3%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 10/56 (17.9%) for 6.8pts (+12.2%)
  • and over trips of 10/10.5f : 7/27 (25.9%) for 37.6pts (+139.3%)

Now, although he doesn't get to ride for today's trainer Richard Fahey too often, it's certainly not because he doesn't win on that yard's horses. In fact he is 4 from 11 (36.4%) for 12.56pts (+114.2%) on them since the start of last season with a 4/6 (66.6%) record in handicaps that has produced 17.56pts profit at an ROI of 292.7%!

And finally, we really should consider Mr Fahey's own recent record at this venue and I'm happy to report that it's also very good with 28 winners from 150 since the start of the 2014 season.

This 18.7% strike rate has rewarded followers with profits of 50.7pts at a healthy ROI of 33.8% with his handicappers winning 19 of 104 (18.3%) for 47.4pts (+45.5%) and it is these 104 'cappers I want to focus on, because under today's conditions, they are...

  • 15/68 (22.1%) for 55pts (+80.8%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 10/52 (19.2%) for 42pts (+80.7%) as 3 yr olds
  • 6/44 (13.6%) for 37.5pts (+85.3%) when beaten by 5 to 30 lengths LTO
  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 24.5pts (+74.1%) in 3yo races
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 36.2pts (+120.5%) racing 6-15 days after their last run
  • and 9/24 (37.5%) for 14.7pts (+61.4%) when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 9/2

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOGwhich was available from BetVictor & SkyBet at 7.10pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th June 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.40 Salisbury : Here And Now @ 9/4 BOG non-runner Withdrawn at 8.53am Reason: Vets Cert (Bad Scope).

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Nottingham...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Excel Again @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

Full details coming soon...

...but until then, it's...a 1pt win bet on Excel Again9/2 BOG which was offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 6.05pm on Wednesday with plenty of 4/1 to aim at elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Nottingham...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th June 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.35 Bath : Realize @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Tracked leaders, not clear run from over 1f out, quickened between horses to lead inside final furlong, ran on, readily won by 2.5 lengths.

Monday's pick goes in the...

8.00 Nottingham...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Indigo Princess @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old filly has finished 212 in her last three outings, so clearly comes here in good nick. Beaten by 2.5 lengths last time out in unsuitable conditions (C4 over 7f on Gd to Soft), she now looks well placed to repeat her C&D success of two starts ago.

That win was back in Class 6 company over 8.5f on decent ground and that's what faces her today, she's 2lbs higher than that win, but her jockey (same one as that win) now takes 7lbs off, effectively putting her 5lbs to the good.

She's trained by Mick Appleby, whose runners seem to love it here (the short 25 mile journey from home might be a factor!), winning 35 of their 222 (15.8% SR) races here over the last 6.5 seasons with a £20 stake on each generating level stakes profits of some £3068 at an ROI of 69.1%. With today's race in mind, those 222 runners include...

  • handicaps : 34/190 (17.9%) for 181.6pts (+95.6%)
  • females : 17/107 (15.9%) for 76.4pts (+71.4%)
  • top 3 finish LTO : 25/76 (32.9%) for 110.2pts (+144.9%)
  • on good to firm : 10/71 (14.1%) for 42.9pts (+60.4%)
  • 4 yr olds are 12/66 (18.2%) for 37.5pts (+56.9%)
  • over this 8.5f trip : 11/65 (16.9%) for 30.6pts (+47.1%)
  • and those up in trip by 1-1.5 f are 7/45 (15.6%) for 77.2pts (+171.5%)

AND...female handicappers with a top 3 finish LTO are 13/31 (41.9% SR) for 90.6pts (+292.4% ROI).

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Indigo Princess5/2 BOG which was widely available at 7.25pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th July 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.45 Goodwood : The Last Lion @ 100/30 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Chased leaders, went 2nd and edged right over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong, never going pace of winner)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oriental Relation at 7/2 BOG

Why?

A winner here over course and distance 9 days ago, making all last time out and similar tactics would serve him well again on a track that our racecard heatmap tells me rewards front runners from mid-placed draws and 5 of 8 is ideal here.

He's up 5lbs for his win, but not only does his jockey's claim negate the rise, he's still some 13lbs lower than his A/W mark, so weight shouldn't be an issue either.

Stats wise, he's 8 from 35 (7/27 in hcps) running after a break of less them 3 weeks, 5/18 (4/14 in hcps) off a mark of 71-80 and 6/11 (5/9 in hcps) when priced at 4/1 and shorter, so conditions look set fair for him here.

Added to this is trainer James Given, whose 3 to 7 yr old handicappers running at Classes 5 to 7 with the CD logo next to their name and were LTO winners (anywhere!) are 8 from 19 (42.1% SR) for 10.28pts (+54.1% ROI) since 2010, of which those racing over today's 5f trip are 3/5 (60%) for 11.02pts (+220.4%) profit.

...meaning that it's a 1pt win bet on Oriental Relation at 7/2 BOG from Bet365, BetVictor and/or Hills, who led the way at 6.15pm, although to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 15th July 2016

Thursday's Result :

2.40 Chepstow : Feed The Goater @ 9/2 BOG WON at 9/2 (Mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, got up on line to win by a nose)

Friday's pick goes in the...

5.05 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wakame at 7/2 BOG

Why?

This horse's last few results have been promising, closing last season off with a win and then finishing 242 in three runs this year. Only beaten by a short head last time out at Class 5 off today's mark of 61, the drop down in to Class 6 (where he is 1 from 2 so far) could make all the difference just 7 days after that defeat. Incidentally, his previous win was also after a 7-day gap.

He's trained by Ed de Giles, whose runners went 3 for 3 on Thursday at Chepstow and whose record in Flat handicaps is good, as the following figures (which don't include the 3/3 on Thursday) will confirm, as...

...since the start of the 2012 season, Ed's Flat 'cappers priced at 7/4 to 10/1 are 43/213 (20.2% SR) for 45.9pts (+21.6% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • males are 42/210 (20%) for 45.7pts (+21.8%)
  • those racing over 1m to 1m4f are 28/115 (24.4%) for 51.5pts (+44.8%)
  • those 2nd or 3rd LTO are 15/68 (22.1%) for 11.2pts (+16.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 12/56 (21.4% SR) for 14.4pts (+25.7%)
  • and Class 6 runners are 11/20 (55%) for 47.2pts (+236%)

Wakame's chances are boosted by the booking of Jim Crowley to take the ride and although Jim doesn't ride for Ed very often, they were 2 from 2 together on Thursday and Jim also has a good record of his own here at Nottingham with 16 winners from 63 (25.4% SR) and 30.6pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of 48.5% since the start of the 2011 season.

Those 63 runners can be further analysed as follows...

  • those racing at this 8.5f trip and beyond are 13/41 (31.7%) for 36.2pts (+88.3%)
  • males are 13/40 (32.5%) for 35.6pts (+89.1%)
  • handicappers are 9/38 (23.7%) for 22.6pts (+59.4%)
  • those priced 15/8 to 7/1 are 12/34 (35.3%) for 30pts (+88.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/30 (23.3%) for 5.7pts (+19.1%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 3/9 (33.3%) for 5.76pts (+64%)

AND...male handicappers beyond a mile are 7/14 (50% SR) for 35pts (+250% ROI), of which 3 yr olds at 7/1 and shorter are 4/7 (57.1%) for 18.5pts (+263.8%)

...all of which means that the call is a 1pt win bet on Wakame at 7/2 BOG with Bet365, who were the market leaders at 5.25pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering later...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...