Tag Archives: Nigel Twiston-Davies

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2020

New Year's Eve's pick was...

3.20 Lingfield : Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, never nearer)

New Year's Day's pick runs in the...

12.15 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Redford Road @ 3/1 and Betfair SP

...in the 6-runner, Listed, Ballymore Novices Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £14,238 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding was a Grade 2 winner here at Cheltenham on his last start 18 days ago and although he now takes a drop in trip, he has won at 2m4f over hurdles in the past. In fact he's never been out of the first two home in five starts, winning three times and never beaten by more than a length, including...

  • 3 from 3 going left handed
  • 2 wins and a second from 3 over hurdles (all Novice events)
  • 2 from 2 under jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
  • a win and a second from 2 on Soft ground
  • and 1 from 1 here at Cheltenham

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' hurdlers who won last time out are 31 from 99 (31.3% SR) for 17.1pts (+17.3% ROI) when sent off at odds of Evens to 13/2 over the past four years, including of relevance today...

  • 31/97 (32%) for 19.1pts (+19.7%) with males
  • 25/67 (37.3%) for 30.2pts (+45.1%) with 5/6 yr olds
  • 11/19 (57.9%) for 22.4pts (+117.7%) over trips of 2m3½f to 2m4½f
  • 9/30 (30%) for 1.5pts (+5%) on soft ground
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 2.4pts (+12.4%) here at HQ
  • 5/10 (50%) for 8.26pts (+82.6%) in January
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 10.6pts (+265%) from those dropping in trip by 4-5 furlongs

...whilst from the above...5-6 yr old males racing over 2m3½f to 2m4½f are 9/15 (60% SR) for 21.53pts (+143.5% ROI) including 4/7 on soft, 2/2 in Jan, 2/2 dropping 4-5f and 1/1 at Chelts...

...giving us...0.5pts at Betfair SP and a 0.5pt win bet on Redford Road @ 3/1 as was available from Paddy Power & Betfair at 6.40pm on New Year's Eve. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.15 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd April 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.45 Musselburgh : City Tour @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/2 (Chased leaders on outside, went 2nd and hung right inside final furlong, ran on to lead towards finish op 3/1)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.05 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

EarloftheCotswolds 6/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £12996 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding is the only course and distance winner on show here today, none of the other 10 rivals have won at this trip and only two have registered a victory on this track.

Our boy had a win and a place from 3 bumper runs and has since finished a very respectable 21512 over hurdles, only narrowly beaten LTO 34 days ago. He's by Axxos, whose hurdlers have won 7 of their 20 starts (35% SR) so far, whilst his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record here at Market Rasen from a fairly small number of runners.

Since 2010, NTD's runners are 18 from 98 (18.4% SR) here for 20.4pts (+20.8% ROI) profit, from which...

  • males are 16/89 (18%) for 24.4pts (+27.4%)
  • those priced at 6/4 to 10/1 are 14/67 (20.9%) for 27.1pts (+40.4%)
  • those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 10/51 (19.6%) for 3.1pts (+6.1%)
  • since 2015 : 9/44 (20.5%) for 14.3pts (+32.5%)
  • and at trips of 2m5f to 2m7f : 10/40 (25%) for 25.8pts (+64.5%)

...whilst from the above... Sam's record on males priced at 6/4 to 10/1 = 7/32 (21.9%) for 15.3pts (+47.9%), including...

  • at 2m5f to 2m7f : 3/13 (23.1%) for 8.38pts (+64.5%)
  • 2018/19 : 3/6 (50%) for 7.13pts (+118.8%)
  • and at 2m5f-2m7f in 2018/19 = 1/1 (100%) for 2.25pts (+225%) from EarloftheCotswolds' run here two starts ago!

More generally in UK NH Handicap Hurdle contests since 2013, horses with the CD icon next to their name on the racecard who either won or were a top 4 finisher within 2 lengths of the winner last time out are 274 from 1231 (22.3% SR) for 215.9pts (+17.5% ROI) backed blindly!

With today's race in mind, those 1231 runners can be filtered as follows...

  • males are 228/1016 (22.4%) for 193.5pts (+19.1%)
  • those last seen 11-60 days earlier are 200/914 (21.9%) for 182.1pts (+19.9%)
  • over trips of 2m1f to 3m : 170/695 (24.5%) for 272.1pts (+39.2%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 129/457 (28.2%) for 109.3pts (+23.9%)
  • and at Class 3 : 85/317 (26.8%) for 199.6pts (+63%)

...and if you wanted a micro giving around 50 bets per year, then 5 to 11 yr old males racing over 2m1f to 3m at Class 3-5 some 11 to 60 days after their last run = 90 from 332 (27.1% SR) for 210.9pts (+63.5% ROI) and there's just one qualifier today...

...and that gives... a 1pt win bet on EarloftheCotswolds 6/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.00pm on Tuesday.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 27th October 2018

Friday's Pick was...

1.20 Doncaster : Lola's Theme @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn early on race day, citing the going) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Foxtail Hill @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £37140 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding won this race last year off a mark 2lbs higher than today and although he hasn't raced in the last 189 days...(a) neither have most of his rivals and (b) when winning this last year, he was coming off a break of 192 days, so we know he can go well fresh.

He has 4 wins and 2 places from 17 efforts over fences and these include of relevance today...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 13 in handicaps
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 8 on Good ground
  • 2 wins from 8 at 2m/2m0.5f
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 7 here at Cheltenham
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 7 with jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
  • 1 from 2 at Class 2 (but has won at Gr 3!)
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (last year's race)

His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' handicap chasers are going well right now winning 6 of 22 (27.3% SR) for 4.59pts (+20.9% ROI) over the last 30 days, but that's no real surprise to me, because since 2013 during the May to October period, his 5 to 10 yr old male handicap chasers have won 56 of 243 (23.1% SR) for 166.9pts (+68.7% ROI) when rested for at least 16 days.

Of these 243 runners and of note today...

  • those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 40/163 (24.5%) for 135.7pts (+83.3%)
  • on Good ground : 31/160 (19.4%) for 51.5pts (+32.2%)
  • at odds of 5/2 to 5/1 : 36/112 (32.1%) for 63pts (+56.2%)
  • in October : 27/93 (29%) for 70.6pts (+185.7%)
  • those returning from a break of 5 to 8 months are 12/53 (22.6%) for 23.3pts (+43.9%)
  • at Class 2 : 6/40 (15%) for 5.93pts (+14.8%)
  • 9 yr olds are 11/38 (29%) for 70.6pts (+185.7%)
  • those competing for a prize worth £25k to £40k are 3/16 (18.75%) for 14.46pts (+90.4%)
  • previous course and distance winners are 5/15 (33.3%) for 25.88pts (+172.5%)
  • and here at HQ : 3/10 (30%) for 15.32pts (+153.2%)

...AND...if you wanted just a handful of bets each year with a high strike rate and high yield, then Sam Twiston-Davies on those priced at 5/2 to 5/1 on Good ground or softer in September/October is 16 from 40 (40% SR) for 37.17pts (+92.9% ROI) with those coming off a break of 5 to 8 months winning 4 of 12 933.3%) for 9.64pts (+72%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Foxtail Hill @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms at 5.25pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2018

Saturday's Result :

11.30 Lingfield : Joegogo @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Led ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra closing stages.

Our first pick for 2018 runs in New Year's Day's...

2.35 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Heavy ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has won each of his last three starts, all under today's jockey Tom Humphries (claiming a useful 7lbs) including a course and distance success here in this grade last time out, 17 days ago, taking the horse's record under today's conditions to...

  • 3/5 in fields of 8-11 runners & 3/4 after a break of just 8-30 days
  • No run on heavy, but 2/4 on soft & 3/3 with today's jockey
  • 2/3 at Class 2 & 1/1 here at Cheltenham
  • 1/1 at this trip, leading to 1/1 over C&D (that win LTO!)

His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record on heavy ground with his handicappers winning 36 of 228 (15.8% SR) for 57.6pts (+25.3% ROI) over the last 5 years, including...

  • males : 35/209 (16.75%) for 71.3pts (+34.1%)
  • December to March : 31/187 (16.6%) for 72.8pts (+38.9%)
  • at trips of 3m to 3m2f : 13/82 (15.9%) for 24.8pts (+30.3%)

AND...males running 3m to 3m2f in December to March are 12/60 (20% SR) for 42.3pts (+70.6% ROI)

Also, since 2010, Nigel's LTO-winning handicap hurdlers are 27/118 (22.9% SR) for 23.7pts (+20.1% ROI) when sent off at odds ranging from 13/8 to 8/1 (we should be safe there!), from which...

  • those who ran in the last 45 days are 24/101 (23.8%) for 22.4pts (+22.1%)
  • males are 25/100 (25%) for 27.9pts (+27.9%)
  • at 3m/3m0.5f : 6/25 924%) for 18.8pts (+75.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 8/24 (33.3%) for 20.8pts (+86.8%)
  • and on heavy ground : 5/20 (25%) for 6.8pts (+34%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available from Betfair & Boylesports at 7.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2016

Saturday's Result :

1.35 Wincanton : Virgilio @ 5/2 BOG - PU at 7/4 (Pressed leader, pushed along when hit 13th and lost 2nd, soon outpaced and struggling, tailed off 4 out, soon pulled up)

Many thanks to Steve for stepping into the breech in my absence, but I'm glad to be back with Monday's pick, which goes in the...

1.30 Kempton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Little Pop @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Over the last 30 days, Nigel Twiston-Davies' runners are 17 from 61 (27.8% SR) for 22.9pts (+37.6% ROI) with handicap chasers winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) with Ryan Hatch riding 13 of those 16, including 4 winners (30.8%).

Little Pop is 131 in his last three outings, and won a Class 4, 2 mile handicap chase fairly comfortably by 2.5 lengths when last seen at Hereford a month ago, making him of further interest here, because...

...since the start of 2010, male chasers aged 6-9 who won a hcp chase LTO by 2-10 lengths, 11-150 days ago are 148/557 (26.6% SR) for 109.4pts (+19.7% ROI), including..

  • 136/488 (27.9%) for 97.2pts (+19.9%) from those returning from a break of 11 to 45 days
  • 55/234 (23.5%) for 47.7pts (+20.4%) from those who won by 2-4 lengths LTO
  • and 42/146 (28.8%) for 59.1pts (+410.4%) from 8 yr olds

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Little Pop at 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Hills at 7.00pm on Sunday, with plenty of 11/4 BOG elsewhere and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 5th October 2016

Tuesday's Result :

5.10 Brighton : Virile @ 9/2 non-BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Fell out of the stalls, missed the break and slowly into stride, held up, towards rear, good headway on wide outside over 1f out, chased winner and every chance well inside final furlong, just held off by a head)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Templehills at 11/4 BOG

Why?

Well, it's quite a simple one tonight/today, depending on when you're reading this.

August to October has become known as "Twister Season", due to the success at this time of year of Nigel Twiston Davies and his jumpers.

NTD / 5-10 yr olds / Chases & Hurdles / August-October / 2008-16 = 165/730 (22.6% SR) for 401.2pts (+55% ROI) and you could stop there, but I won't!

Of these 730 runners...

  • males are 153/652 (23.5%) for 384.7pts (+59%)
  • hurdlers are 71/327 (21.7%) for 257.6pts (+78.9%)
  • non-handicappers are 69/263 (26.2%) for 218.4pts (+83%)
  • 5 yr olds are 45/177 (28.4%) for 169.2pts (+95.6%)
  • LTO winners are 35/144 (24.3%) for 42.9pts (+29.8%)

AND..male non-hcp hurdlers are 36/142 (25.4% SR) for 183.9ts (+129.5% ROI), of which...

  • 5 yr olds are 20/79 (25.3%) for 125.7pts (+159.2%)
  • LTO winners are 9/29 (31%) for 9.83pts (+33.9%)
  • and in 2016 : 6/12 (50%) for 6.04pts (+50.3%)

with 5 yr old male non-hcp hurdlers who won LTO winning 5 of 15 (33.3%) for 4.2pts at an ROI of 28%, which is a pretty good return for an exposed MO...

...which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Templehills at 11/4 BOG, which was offered in a half dozen or so places at 6.25pm on Tuesday. I'd use Bet365 if possbile, in case it drifts and we can get BOG plus but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ludlow.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 30th August 2016

Monday's Result :

5.25 Epsom : Crowning Glory @ 4/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Tracked leader, led over 2f out, ridden out to beat Ripoll by a length and a quarter, comfortably enough in the end)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Moonday Sun at 11/4 BOG

Why?

A handicap debut now beckons for this 7 yr old gelding who won a maiden over 2m 0.5f at Bangor by 9 lengths last time out, 11 days ago. He was rated at 113 that day and even taking into consideration that his jockey had a 3lb claim there, today's opening handicap mark of 114 might prove to be a little lenient.

Sam Twiston-Davies will ride for dad Nigel and Sam is in good nick. I saw him ride a near-15/1 double at Cartmel on Saturday and he always relishes riding for "the family".

This time of year has become known as "Twister Season" in many quarters, but for those of you not familiar with it, it's basically the right time of year for backing Nigel Twiston-Davies' hurdlers.

What you need is a 5 to 10 yr old NTD-trained hurdler running in August/September/October and that's it. Back them all since 1st August 2008 and you've 64 winners from 303 (21.1% SR) and a £20 stake on each would have made you £5186 profit at a very attractive 85.6% ROI.

If you don't want 10-12 bets per month from just one angle in your portfolio, some sensible/logical filters include...

  • 5-8 yr olds, who are 60/273 (22%) for 254pts (+93%)
  • males are 55/250 (22%) for 236.2pts (+94.5%)
  • Class 4 runners are 38/149 (25.5%) for 246.1pts (+165.2%)
  • those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 33/145 (22.8%) for 174.6pts (+120.4%)
  • and those competing over 1m 7.5f to 2m 0.5f are 18/65 (27.7%) for 42.4pts (+65.2%)

AND...5-8 yr old males ridden by Sam in a Class 4 race are 18/57 (31.6% SR) for 160.5pts (+281.6% ROI)

And to be perfectly honest, that's enough to be able to base a bet on, but I do like to give a little more where possible, so we could also look at the fate of Nigel's handicap hurdlers turned back out with 30 days of a win and we see that since 2008, they are 21 from 115 (18.3% SR) for 36pts (+31.3% ROI).

Convinced now? Or do you need one more? Oh, go on then...Nigel Twiston-Davies' NH handicap debutants are 29/159 (18.2% SR) for 103.9pts (+65.4% ROI) since the start of 2010 with hurdlers providing 25 of those winners from 139 efforts (18%), generating level stakes profits of 101.2pts at an ROI of 72.8%.

And of those 139 hurdling handicap debutants, Class 4 runners are 14/62 (22.6%) for 78pts (+125.8%), whilst those racing over 2m / 2m 0.5f are 6/21 (28.6%) for 54.5pts (+259.5%) and that's your lot for today...

...so, it's time to place...a 1pt win bet on Moonday Sun at 11/4 BOG, with either Bet365 or Hills who jointly headed the market at 5.45pm on Monday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Worcester.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2016

Monday's Result :

3.45 Brighton: Brave Archibald @ 10/ E/W BOG 2nd at 8/1 (Short of room start, in touch towards rear, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway inside final furlong, driven and stayed on to go 2nd final strides). On a tough day stats-wise, I was very pleased to emerge with a small profit of half a point to keep the ball rolling.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.00 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Frontier Vic at 7/2 BOG.

Why?

Over the last two years, this 9 yr old gelding has proved to be remarkably consistent, with 11 top 3 finishes from 13 efforts and was a winner by a length and a quarter in a 3m contest last time out at Perth almost four weeks ago.

He's trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, whose handicap hurdlers are 21/112 (18.75% SR) for 39pts (+34.8% ROI) profit when turned back out within 30 days of a win last time out. And of more pertinence today, we can filter those 112 runners down as follows...

  • males are 19/94 (20.2% SR) for 43.2pts (+46% ROI)
  • on ground deemed good, good to soft or soft : 18/85 (21.2% SR) for 37.3pts (+57.5% ROI)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 8/1 : 16/76 (21.1% SR) for 21.9pts (+28.9% ROI)
  • those raised 2 to 7lbs for that LTO win are 14/65 (21.5% SR) for 37.3pts (+57.5% ROI)
  • at trips of 2m5f and beyond : 12/57 (21.1% SR) for 51.8pts (+90.8% ROI)
  • racing 26 to 30 days after that LTO win : 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 38.6pts (+275.9% ROI)

I should also touch on the fact that Nigel's son Sam will be in the saddle and Sam's record on his dad's Class 4 male hurdlers currently stands at 63 winners from 350 (18% SR) for decent level stakes profits of some 124.8pts (+35.7% ROI), with those horses running beyond 3m winning 10 of 43 (23.3% SR) for 20.5pts (+47.6% ROI).

And the call is...a 1pt win bet on Frontier Vic at 7/2 BOG with either Bet365 or BetVictor, who were the standout BOG bookies at 6.30pm, whilst Betfred, Ladbrokes and Totesport were all quoting the same odds, but don't/won't offer BOG until the day of the race. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 31st March 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.40 Exeter: Umberto D'Olivate @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Made all, pushed along before 3 out, joined next, ridden and headed before last, one pace run-in)

The last of a dismal month, Thursday's runner goes in the...

3.45 Bangor:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

I Am Colin @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a winner on his last hurdles outing in March 2015, so he clearly likes this time of year, but he was then off the track for 8 months before returning as a chaser, where in 4 runs to date he has progressively improved with finishes of 3221.

He lost by a short head (2m4f , heavy) at Warwick two starts ago when carried right by the drifting winner, Merchant of Milan, in a race he should probably have been awarded in the stewards' room, but made amends by romping to a 9 length success last time out with Merchant of Milan 30 lengths behind him. That was 30 days ago, over 2m 6.5f on heavy ground at Leicester, so I am Colin shouldn't be found lacking in stamina today.

His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is getting a fine tune from his runners at present, as typified by the yard's 5 winners from 13 runners in the last week and they do pretty well here at Bangor when expected to ie when there's some market suport, but not hammered!

In numerical terms, we're talking NTD at Bangor, 2010-16 at 9/4 to 15/2. Which equation gives us 8 winners from 35 (22.9% SR) for 15pts (+42.8% ROI) profit and although this is a small sample size (I've a bigger one for you shortly, oo-er missus!), it does throw up some interesting (to me, anyway) profitable angles relating to today's contest, namely...

  • males are 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 12.7pts (+45.3% ROI)
  • handicappers are 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 14.5pts (+55.6% ROI)
  • chasers are 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 10.2pts (+53.7% ROI)
  • on soft/heavy ground, they are 4/16 (25% SR) for 5.7pts (+35.6% ROI)
  • in hcp chases : 4/16 (25% SR) for 3.7pts (+23.1% ROI)
  • over this 2m4.5f trip : 2/6 (33.33% SR) for 10.2pts (+170.2% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 2/4 (50% SR) for 9.36pts (+234% ROI)

And if we look at the horse, I am Colin's last outing, it reinforces the selection, as since the start of 2010, male Class 4 chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who were LTO winners of a hcp chase by 2 to 10 lengths 11 to 150 days ago went on to win again on 131 of 509 (25.7% SR) follow-up runs, generating level stakes profits of 84.4pts at a healthy ROI of 16.6% from blind backing.

I fully appreciate that not many people want to blindly blind a subset of 509 runners over 6 and a bit years, so we can refine the selections as follows...

  • those priced at 7/4 to 14/1 are 106/439 (24.2% SR) for 99.6pts (+22.7% ROI)
  • those racing over 2m4.5f to 3m2f are 71/281 (25.3% SR) for 92.3pts (+32.9% ROI)
  • those last seen 21 to 45 days ago are 66/248 (26.6% SR) for 75.3pts (+30.4% ROI)
  • those who won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO are 63/208 (30.3% SR) for 59.9pts (+28.8% ROI)
  • those running on soft ground are 27/101 (26.7% SR) for 22.6pts (+22.4% ROI)
  • and here at Bangor: 6/20 (30% SR) for 4.3pts (+21.5% ROI)

and since 2011, those priced at 7/4 to 14/1 over 2m4.5f to 3m2f who won by 5 to 10 lengths 21 to 75 days ago are 20/46 (43.5% SR) for 62.2pts (+135.2% ROI), of which those running on soft ground are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 19.1pts (+147.2% ROI) and those racing here at Bangor are 3/4 (75% SR) for 8.8pts (+220% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on I am Colin at 7/2 BOG with any of the half dozen or so firms offering the same price. To see what odds your bookie is giving...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2015

Brrrrrrrr, it's bloody chilly here in the SotD chair at the moment and I'm struggling to buy a winner.

No complaints though from me (and thankfully, you guys!), as we all know it's part of the cyclical nature of sticking one's head above the parapet to be shot at on a daily basis!

For the record, Monday's runner, Stardrifter had a stinker. Sent off at our advised 7/2 odds, he dwelt towards the rear of the pack and never really got involved, finishing 8th of 11 around four lengths off the pace.

I'm hoping a change of code and a famous family can bring about a halt to this poor run in the...

4.10 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

There's a possibility that during this recent losing spell, I've tried a bit too hard or been a bit too complicated in an effort to spark a return to form, so today is a back to basics job with the Twiston-Davies's for this Class 3, 3m 1.5f chase on good ground, where 22 yr old Sam rides the 7/2 BOG Belmount for his dad Nigel, making this a notable selection for several reasons.

  1. In Class 3/4 chases of up to 3m2f since the start of 2012, Sam has ridden 76 winners (21.7% SR) from 350 for dad Nigel for a profit of 160.4pts at an ROI of 45.8%.
  2. Nigel's 5 to 10 yr old chasers are 61/248 (24.6% SR) for 109.6pts (+44.2% ROI) in the months of August to October inclusive since the beginning of August 2010. Of those 248 runners, 5/6 yr old males are 25/65 (38.5% SR) for 55.1pts (+84.7% ROI).
  3. Over the last 10 yrs Nigel has an 18.8% strike rate (16/85) in chases here at Warwick with Class 3/4 runners winning 14 of 63 (22.2% SR), those priced at 11/2 or shorter are 15/42 (35.7% SR) whilst those running at trips of 3m0.5f to 3m2f have won 10 of 28 (35.7% SR).

All of which gives us the belief of a good run from Belmount, a horse who is 1 from 1 here at Warwick, courtesy of a win over hurdles at a similar trip to today (3m2f). He's 1/1 over fences and also 1/1 at Class 3 level. He has won both starts on good ground, has four wins from six when priced at 4/1 or shorter and is 3 from 5 when young Sam is in the saddle.

Taking all those into consideration, 7/2 BOG doesn't look a bad price for Belmount and I've gone with Hills this time, but with seven other firms also matching that price, you really should...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.