Tag Archives: Nicky Richards

Stat of the Day, 21st December 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.20 Southwell : Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned after the refund cut-off point)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3,  Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £7,213 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding comes here on the back of four straight wins, a run of form that represents his entire record from the last winter season and his entire chasing career to date. He was last seen winning by five lengths over much further (3m1f) on similarly soft ground and now attempts to pick up where he left off some 41 weeks ago.

I'm not too concerned about the layoff, as the first of those four wins came a year and a day ago, having been off the track for 36 weeks, so he's expected to go well fresh again today and with regards to his so-far perfect 4 from 4 record over fences...

  • he's 3/3 on Soft ground, the other win was on heavy
  • he has won over 2m4f previously, but has the stamina to stay 3m1f
  • today's jockey Brian Hughes has ridden all four wins
  • all four wins were on left handed tracks
  • he's 3 from 3 as a 7 yr old

Both trainer Nicky Richards and jockey Brian Hughes have good records here at Newcastle and that's a fairly well worn statistical path and is denoted on your racecard with the green icons, so I'm not going there today. Instead, I'm hopefully going to tell you something you don't already know about Glittering Love's suitability for the task, based on his breeding.

He's by Winged Love, whose offspring are 57 from 291 (19.6% SR) for 68.9pts (+23.7% ROI) in UK NH handicaps on Soft ground or "worse" over the last 5 years, including of note/relevance today...

  • 53/216 (24.5%) for 115.9pts (+53.7%) at odds of 6/5 to 12/1
  • 44/208 (21.2%) for 59.2pts (+28.5%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 44/190 (23.2%) for 62.2pts (+32.8%) with horses younger than 9 yrs old
  • 36/191 (18.9%) for 60.7pts (+31.8%) on soft ground
  • 33/178 (18.5%) for 55.2pts (+31%) over fences
  • 30/107 (28%) for 78.8pts (+73.6%) during December & January
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 38.0pts (+65.6%) over 2m4f-2m4.5f
  • 9/16 (56.25%) for 18.4pts (+115.2%) trained by Nicky Richards
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 21.4pts (+178.7%) here at Newcastle
  • and 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 9.3pts (+154.7%) with Brian Hughes in the saddle...

...whilst if you wanted a 25-30 picks per year micro-system based around the above that used just 47% of the original 291 bets, but generated nearly 74% of the winners and almost doubled the profits, then 5-11 yr olds sent off at 6/5 to 12/1 at Classes 2 to 5 during November to February are 42 from 137 (30.7% SR) for 135.6pts at an ROI of 99%...

...sending us off for Christmas with...a 1pt win bet on Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th May 2019

Monday's pick was...

5.00 Warwick : Glimpse of Gold @ 4/1 BOG non-runner

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rubytwo @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2mf on Good ground worth £5003 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 7yr old mare trained by the in-form Nicky Richards, whose runners are 6 from 26 (23.1% SR) for 51.9pts (+199.5% ROI) over the last 30 days, including 5 from 22 (22.7%) for 54.3pts (+246.9%) up in Scotland.

That success North of the border is no surprise/fluke, as I'm always keen to give at least a second glance to his runners in this area. The reason for this is that since the start of 2014, his handicappers are 62 from 351 (17.7% SR) for 47.9pts (+13.6% ROI) backed blindly running in Scotland and you could just stop there and have a very simple to implement system.

Of course, blind backing isn't mine or Geegeez style if it comes to 60+ runners per year, so you could always apply some of the following filters that are in play today, as from those 351 runners...

  • Class 4 : 24/135 (17.8%) for 11.8pts (+8.8%)
  • 11-30 dslr : 30/123 (24.4%) for 92.5pts (+75.2%)
  • 7/8 yr olds : 30/121 (24.8%) for 53.1pts (+43.9%)
  • at Ayr : 23/121 (19%) for 20.6pts (+17%)
  • at 2mf to 2mf : 22/110 (20%) for 33.8pts (+30.7%)
  • and ridden by today's jockey Daniel McMenamin : 4/19 (21%) for 8.44pts (+44.4%)

Now, if you wanted a composite micro combining the above elements, you're not going to get too many qualifiers, due to the "tightness" of the parameters I use to qualify a selection, but if you wanted to combine age/class/days since run/track and distance, you could broaden the search to 5-8 yr olds over 2m4f to 3m1f in Class 4 contests at Ayr after a break of 16-45 days and this gives 7 winners from 16 (43.75% SR) for 13.54pts (+84.7% ROI)...

...and points to... a 1pt win bet on Rubytwo @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.50pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th March 2019

Monday's pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Distant Mirage @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 11/4 (Towards rear, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and stayed on final furlong, nearest finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glinger Flame 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Soft/Good to Soft ground worth £6758 to the winner...

Why?...

A lightly raced 7 yr gelding making a handicap debut is the one carrying my money today (hope the added weight doesn't stop him!). He's had just four runs to date (2 of which were in bumpers), finishing in the frame (3323) each time and his two efforts over hurdles have seen him only beaten by a neck and then a length, so it wouldn't take much improvement to get him up for a first win.

And with no disrespect intended to Ryan Day, I feel the booking of Brian Hughes in the saddle might just make that little bit of difference needed, especially as he's got an 18.9% strike rate (67 from 355) on this track since 2011, including winning 14 of 64 (21.9% SR) since the start of 2018.

Trainer Nicky Richards trains this horse just 45 miles away from this venue and it's surprising that he's only sent 59 runners here since 2012. What isn't surprising, however, is that he does well with the ones he does send over, a sign of picking and choosing the right races, perhaps?

Of those 59 runners sent on the short hour or so journey, 17 (28.8% SR) have won, generating level stakes profits of 12.93pts at an ROI of 21.9%, so it's not a lack of success keeping him away, surely.

Anyway, it's not for me to guess why he's not a regular here, but I can tell you that of those 59 visitors...

  • those sent off at 7/1 and shorter are 16/41 (39%) for 21.3pts (+51.9%)
  • hurdlers are 10/36 (27.8%) for 5.8pts (+16.1%)
  • handicappers are 9/30 (30%) for 14.5pts (+48.2%)
  • 6-8 yr olds are 13/29 (44.8%) for 28.6pts (+98.5%)
  • Class 4 runners are 8/29 (27.6%) for 5.3pts (+18.2%)
  • over trips of 2m4f - 3m : 11/23 (47.8%) for 24.6pts (+107.1%)
  • those racing on Soft/Good to Soft ground are 8/18 (44.4%) for 12.9pts (+71.4%)
  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 8/16 (50%) for 14.1pts (+88%)
  • and those ridden by Brian Hughes are 3/5 (60%) for 2.86pts (+57.1%)

And with this horse making his handicap bow, it's also worth noting that since 2012, Nicky's handicap debutants are 14/66 (21.2% SR) for 15.7pts (+23.9% ROI), including of note today...

  • Oct-April = 13/56 (23.2%) for 21.2pts (+37.9%)
  • hrds = 10/56 (17.9%) for 7.1pts (+12.6%)
  • males = 14/53 (26.4%) for 28.7pts (+54.2%)
  • Sub-5/1 = 12/35 (34.3%) for 22.7pts (+65%)
  • 1-6 months off track = 9/35 (25.7%) for 22.1pts (+63%)
  • Soft/Gd to Soft = 7/29 (24.1%) for 19.1pts (+65.7%)
  • Class 4 = 9/26 (34.6%) for 23.7pts (+91.2%)
  • at 2m4f = 5/11 (45.5%) for 24.1pts (+218.9%)
  • and 7 yr olds = 4/10 (40%) for 17.26pts (+172.6%)

...from which sub-5/1 male hurdlers running in November to April within 4 months of their last outing are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 21.5pts (+165.6% ROI) profit, including...

  • at Class 4  :5/8 (62.5%) for 16.03pts (+200.4%)
  • on Soft/Gd to Soft : 4/6 (66.6%) for 13.65pts (+227.4%)
  • whilst those racing at Class 4 on Soft/Gd to Soft are 2 from 2 (100%) for 7.15pts (+357.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Glinger Flame 3/1 BOG which was available from at least 8 firms at 5.50pm on Monday, but Bet365 were offering an extra half point for those quick enough/allowed to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th December 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

12.50 Southwell : Kommander Kirkup @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Towards rear, pushed along 4f out, ridden and headway entering final 2f, no impression final furlong) - never really travelled well to be honest and was being bumped along from an early point.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Echo Express @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft (Heavy in places) ground worth £4484 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was a decent enough runner-up when last seen 3 weeks ago, that was over course and distance and was only his second visit to Hexham (placed both times), first crack at the minimum trip, first effort over fences and first time with today's jockey Brian Hughes in the saddle, as well as his first run in over 25 weeks.

With that pipe-opener under his belt and running in similar condition to LTO, allied to a drop in class and weight, there are plenty of reasons to be confident about a decent run again today.

His yard is going well enough right now too, trainer Nicky Richards had a couple of winners at relatively-nearby Kelso last Sunday and although he doesn't send many runners on the short 45 mile trip from his Cumbrian HQ over to Hexham, those that come here tend to fare pretty well with his handicappers winning 7 of 27 (25.9% SR) for 11.01pts (+40.8% ROI) since the start of 2013, including the following of relevance today...

  •  at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 6/18 (33.3%) for 10.36pts (+57.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.91pts (+63.6%)
  • in chases : 3/14 (21.4%) for 4.63pts (+33.1%)
  • within 30 days of their last run : 5/11 (45.5%) for 14.95pts (+135.9%)
  • dropping down a class : 3/9 (33.3%) for 4.24pts (+47.1%)
  • 6 yr olds : 4/7 (57.1%) for 19.82pts (+283.1%)
  • and those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/7 (42.9%) for 4.19pts (+59.9%)

We've got soft ground that's going to be heavy in places today and a 7-runner field largely bereft on any discernible form in such conditions, but not our boy. He has a win and a place from three runs on soft and was placed in one of his two heavy ground runs, but that's not a surprise when you consider the fact that since the start of 2014, Nicky Richards' handicappers are 51 from 233 (21.9% SR) for 65.2pts (+28% ROI) when backed blindly on any ground deemed soft or worse. Mind you, he does train his horses in one of the wettest locations in England!

Of these 233 mudlarks, with today's race in mind...

  • males are 49/216 (22.7%) for 72.7pts (+33.7%)
  • chasers are 22/105 (21%) for 27pts (+25.8%)
  • in December / January : 20/90 (22.2%) for 47.9pts (+46.5%)
  • top 2 finish LTO : 25/84 (29.8%) for 27pts (+32.1%)
  • within 25 days of last run : 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.9pts (+75.2%)
  • 6 yr olds are 15/50 (30%) for 57pts (+54%)
  • ridden by Brian Hughes : 2/5 (40%) for 13.1pts (+262.2%)
  • and here at Hexham : 2/4 (50%) for 0.42pts (+10.6%)

...and based around the above categories : Since the start of 2014, Nicky Richards' 5-10 yr old male handicap chasers racing on soft/heavy ground in December to February, 2 to 8 weeks after a top 4 finish LTO are 14 from 29 (48.3% SR) for 52.7pts (+181.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Echo Express @ 10/3 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.35pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

PPS Thursday's selection will appear later on Wednesday than usual, I've got an appointment I can't get out of!

Stat of the Day, 1st August 2017

Monday's Result :

4.30 Ayr : Aprovado @ 5/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 Led, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.00 Perth...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wot A Shot @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This one came to my attention, as his name seemed to pop up all over my databases/shortlists on Monday afternoon, so I'm just going to give you some of those reasons right now...

Initially, the glaringly obvious was his course and distance win under today's jockey, Craig Nichol last time out almost four weeks ago, which then led me to look at the trainer, Nicky Richards.

It then became apparent that Nicky's got a good record here at Perth, as I'm sure many of you will know already (I'm sure I've mentioned it more than once myself!). That record currently reads as 19 winners from 98 (19.4% SR) for profits of 47pts (+48% ROI) since the start of 2014, from which his hurdlers are 12/67 (17.9%) for 36.5pts (+54.5%).

A closer look at the 67 Richards' Perth hurdlers show they are...

  • 9/56 (16.1%) for 21.8pts (+38.9%) in handicaps
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 38.6pts (+240.9%) over 2m/2m0.5f
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 29.3pts (+195.5%) ridden by Craig Nichol
  • 3/12 (25%) for 30.6pts (+255.1%) ridden by Craig Nichol in handicaps
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 35.8pts (+325.2%) in handicaps over 2m/2m0.5f
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 37.6pts (+752%) ridden by Craig Nichol in handicaps over 2m/2m0.5f

This horse was also flagged up in my "Summer Jumpers" microsystem, which is basically a short list of trainers who are profitable to follow in the May-September period and in Nicky Richards' case, since the start of May 2014, his Summer handicap hurdlers priced at 6/1 and shorter are 15/44 (34.1% SR) for 18.5pts (+41.9% ROI).

Those racing over trips of 2m-2m3f are 9/26 (34.6%) for 42.2pts (+162.2%) and those racing over 2m-2m3f at odds of 6/1 and shorter are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 11.2pts (+65.7%).

The next string to today's bow comes via the fact that since the start of 2008, handicap hurdlers with the CD logo next to their name on the racecard and who were also winners (anywhere, any trip) last time out are 341/1761 (19.4% SR) for 156.3pts (+8.9% ROI), from which...

  • those running at the same C&D as that LTO win are 244/1201 (20.3%) for 150.1pts (+12.5%)
  • those last seen 11 to 30 days ago are 180/967  (18.6%) for 146.4pts (+15.2%)
  • on good ground : 119/624 (19.1%) for 115.8pts (+18.6%)
  • and here at Perth : 13/57 (22.8%) for 23.9pts (+41.9%)

I could then tell you about the performance of horses who had recently won after a run of unplaced efforts and I could show some data about hurdlers who won LTO within 30 days and so on and so on, but I think you get the picture by now...

...why I've selected...a 1pt win bet on Wot A Shot @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Skybet, SunBets & 10Bet at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Perth...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th May 2017

Wednesday's Result :

5.15 Worcester : Petiville @ 6/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 Led, ridden and headed approaching 2 out where mistake, kept on same pace in 3rd.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.15 Perth...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Caius Marcius4/1 BOG

Why?

Since the start of 2014, trainer Nicky Richards' handicappers are 88/429 (20.5% SR) for 88pts (+20.5% ROI) profit, of which...

  • those racing at Classes 2 to 4 are 74/328 (22.6%) for 104.2pts (+31.8%)
  • those racing within 60 days of their last run are 70/322 (21.7%) for 93.9pts (+29.2%)
  • 6 to 8 yr olds are 66/272 (24.3%) for 122.9pts (+45.2%)
  • hurdlers are 58/257 (20.2%) for 48.3pts (+18.8%)
  • those priced at 6/1 and shorter are 74/241 (30.7%) for 96.2pts (+39.9%)
  • those ridden by today's jockey, Craig Nichol are 15/82 (18.3%) for 10.9pts (+13.3%)
  • and here at Perth : 11/68 (16.2%) for 12.1pts (+17.8%)

...and another micro/angle for your notebooks based on the above... 6 to 8 yr olds - Classes 2 to 4 - hurdlers - odds of 15/2 and shorter - within 60 days of last run = 22/68 (32.4% SR) for 37.3pts (+54.8% ROI) with those running here at Perth winning 4 of 10 (40%) for 3.08pts (+30.8%) with 4 of the 6 losers making the frame.

All the above data applies here today to Caius Marcius, a 6 yr old gelding who has 4 wins and 3 places from 11 starts to date (3 wins & 3 places from 9 over hurdles) all under the steering of Craig Nichols, including...

  • 3 wins and 3 places from 7 at 2m / 2m 0.5f
  • 3 wins and a place from 7 within 60 days of his last run
  • 3 wins and 2 places from 6 in the March to June period
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 on good ground
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 on good to soft ground, should the rains come
  • 1/1 here at Perth
  • 1/1 over course and distance

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Caius Marcius4/1 BOG which was available from SkyBet Betfair Sports and/or Paddy Power at 6.35pm on Wednesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 28th April 2017

Thursday's Result :

5.45 Market Rasen : Brian Boranha @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Tracked leader, led before 2 out, headed 2 out, regained lead run-in, held on well to win by 2 lengths

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Perth...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chidswell5/1 BOG

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding has run consistently well from day 1 of his career, winning a bumper on debut. To date he has raced 13 times, winning four with 7 further top 3 finishes and his record to date includes the following relevant data today...

  • 2/6 over fences, 2/5 at 2m3.5f to 2m 4.5f, 2/4 this year,
  • 2/4 under jockey Craig Nichol, 1/2 on good ground and has won at Class 3 already and was considered good enough to race at Gr3 over hurdles.

His trainer, Nicky Richards' record with chasers since the start of 2014 is impressive with 44 winners from 212 (20.8% SR) for profits of 61.8pts at a decent ROI of 29.1%. With those stats in hand and looking at today's conditions, here are your top 10 facts for the day...

  • in handicaps : 35/158 (22.2%) for 45pts (+28.5%)
  • over trips of 2m3f to 3m1f : 33/136 (24.3%) for 88pts (64.7%)
  • at odds of 15/8 to 6/1 : 31/113 (27.4%) for 41.4pts (36.6%)
  • those placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO are 24/82 (29.3%) for 98pts (119.5%)
  • at Class 3 : 16/74 (21.6%) for 8pts (10.8%)
  • on Good ground : 14/68 (20.6%) for 22.5pts (33%)
  • those who last ran 21-30 days earlier are 15/52 (28.8%) for 69.4pts (133.5%)
  • 8 yr olds are 12/48 (25%) for 38.5pts (80.3%)
  • those ridden by Craig Nichol are 12/46 (26.1%) for 11.7pts (25.4%)
  • and here at Perth : 5/18 (27.8%) for 10.8pts (59.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Chidswell5/1 BOG from Bet365 or BetVictor but see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 13th October 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.40 Bath : Dubka @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 6/4 (Took keen hold in mid-division, stayed on inside in straight, pushed along chasing leaders over 3f out, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, no impression on leading trio near side, weakened into 5th towards finish)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Baysbrown at 100/30 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 3221 in his last four runs and was a winner at this grade/trip when last seen at Perth 37 days ago.

He is trained by Nicky Richards, whose record here at Carlisle stands at 29 winners from 126 (23% SR) runners since 2008 for level stakes profits of 64.8pts, accrued at an ROI of 51.5% and of these 126 runners...

  • handicap races : 16/70 (22.9%) for 56.6pts (+80.9%)
  • hurdle races  15/50 (30%) for 79.4pts (+158.8%)
  • hcp hurdles : 10/28 (35.7%) for 63.9pts (+228.2%)
  • and Class 4 hcp hurdles : 6/17 (35.5%) for 43.9pts (+258%)

On top of that, male hcp hurdlers / aged 4-8 / OR of 81-130 / carrying 9-13 to 10-13 / LTO winner of hcp hurdle / 3-60 dslr = 200/1021 (19.6% SR) for 111.2pts (+10.9% ROI) since the start of 2012, from which...

  • those who won by 1 to 15 lengths LTO are 154/731 (21.1%) for 144.9pts (+19.8%)
  • those now carrying 10-11 to 10-13 are 71/344 (20.6%) for 71pts (+20.6%)
  • and those now carrying 10-11 to 10-13 who won by 1 to 15 lengths LTO are 55/250 (22% SR) for 93pts (+37.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Baysbrown at 10/3 BOG, from SkyBet who led the market at 6.55pm on Wednesday with plenty of 3/1 BOG available elsewhere and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Carlisle.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 10th March 2016

Wednesday's Result :

2.40 Lingfield : Ballista @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 6/4 (Led, hard driven when challenged over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra towards finish)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

3.05 Carlisle:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Isaacstown Lad @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Nicky Richards turns once again to his trusted lieutenant Brian Harding to ride this 9 yr old gelding in a heavy ground, 3m1f, Class 3, handicap hurdle where Isaacstown Lad will seek to improve upon a 3rd place finish last time out, 19 days ago in a higher grade than this.

This horse has won 4 of 13 hurdles contests to date, with the relevant highlights of those runs being...

  • 4/11 at 2m6.5f to 3m2f, 4/10 under Brian Harding and 4/10 in handicap company
  • 4/8 running for Nicky Richards and 4/6 at odds below 4/1
  • 3/4 running 6-25 DSLR and 2 from 2 at this Class 3 level

The ground is set to be testing and since the start of 2011, Nicky Richards has had plenty of success in the mud with 34 heavy ground winners from 112 (30.4% SR) generating level stakes profits of 48.8pts at an impressive ROI of 43.6%. Those figures can be further examined, with this race firmly in mind, as follows...

  • males are 33/103 for 53pts profit
  • 5-10 yr olds are 33/102 for 56.2pts
  • those priced at 9/1 and shorter are 33/86 for 60.8pts
  • those running at 2m3.5f to 3m2f are 26/71 for 65.9pts
  • those ridden by Brian Harding are 25/71 for 43.7pts
  • those racing 16-75 DSLR are 26/68 for 59.2pts
  • hurdlers are 20/65 for 35.1pts
  • handicappers are 22/61 for 52.9pts
  • at Class 3 : 12/30 for 38.9pts
  • here at Carlisle : 5/17 for 7.6pts

And males aged 5 to 10 yrs old at odds of 9/1 and shorter over trips of 2m3.5f to 3m2f, ridden by Brian Harding are 17 from 29 (58.6% SR) for 52.6pts (+181.5% ROI). From those 29 runners, Class 3 to 5 runners are 17/24 for 57.6pts, of which those running here at Carlisle are 5/5 for 19.6pts!

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Isaacstown Lad at 3/1 BOG with Paddy Power who are currently the standout price. To check that's still the case, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 29th February 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.55 Lingfield : Si Senor @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (In touch, headway over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, soon ridden, kept on and held close home and beaten by a head)

Monday's runner goes in the...

3.15 Ayr:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Takingrisks @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

I actually put this one up almost a fortnight ago, when he was due to run at Ayr, but was eventually declared a non-runner, so some (but not all!) of last time's stats are still valid/relevant, but firstly, let's focus on the record of trainer Nicky Richards' horses when ridden by Brian Harding here at Ayr since the start of 2014, where we see 15 winners from 43 (34.9% SR) for 9.06pts at an ROI of 21.1%, which is pretty decent.

In terms of this particular contest, those 43 runners are...

  • 15/41 (36.6% SR) for 11.1pts (+27% ROI) as males
  • 15/37 (40.5% SR) for 15.1pts (+40.7% ROI) over 1m6f to 3m0.5f
  • 15/36 (41.7% SR) for 16.1pts (+44.6% ROI) at the ages of 4 to 7
  • 12/26 (46.2% SR) for 11.5pts (+44.1% ROI) from horses on debut or who were in the top 3 LTO
  • 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 7.77pts (+29.9% ROI) in handicaps
  • 11/25 (44% SR) for 16.75pts (+65% ROI) at odds of 11/10 to 9/2
  • 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 2.9pts (+13.2% ROI) over hurdles
  • 7/16 (43.75% SR) for 10.6pts (+66.1% ROI) running 4 to 10 weeks since their last run
  • 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 4.47pts (+34.4% ROI) were winners LTO

And with this being a handicap, a further analysis of those 26 handicappers shows us that they are...

  • 7/25 (28% SR) for 8.77pts (+35.1% ROI) as males
  • 7/20 (35% SR) for 15.77pts (+78.9% ROI) over 2m to 3m0.5f
  • 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 14.77pts (+77.7% ROI) at the ages of 5 to 8
  • 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 14.77pts (+77.7% ROI) at odds of 9/2 and shorter
  • 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 15.77pts (+87.6% ROI) running 2 to 10 weeks since their last run
  • 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 6.3pts (+48.4% ROI) over hurdles
  • 4/12 (33.3% SR) for 7.18pts (+59.8% ROI) from horses who were in the top 2 LTO
  • 2/7 (28.6% SR) for 1.86pts (+26.6% ROI) were winners LTO

And the Brian Harding - Nicky Richards - Ayr - 5 to 8 yr old Male handicappers - 9/2 and shorter - 2m to 3m 0.5f - 14 to 70 DSLR angle is 7/10 (70% SR) for 23.77pts (+237.7% ROI).

In addition to the above data, since the start of 2014 Nicky Richards' handicap debutants are 9 from 18 (50% SR) for 35.3pts (+196.1% ROI) profit with hurdlers winning 8 of 17 (47.1% SR) for 31pts (+182.3% ROI) profit, whilst runners here at Ayr are 2 from 4 for 7.44pts (+186.1% ROI).

 

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Takingrisks at 11/4 BOG with Hills, who are currently (8.05pm) one of around half a dozen or so firms offering those odds. To check that's still the case, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...