Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2013
We backed Cape Factor at 3/1 yesterday and although she was as low as 9/4 at times during the day, drifted in the market to an SP of 7/2. She swept into the lead with just over a furlong to go and despite a late surge from the eventual runner-up Jive, she held on to score by a neck to take her record to 2/2.
The 3.5pts profit was a welcome respite for me and I'm looking for back to back winners with an evening trip to Devon for the...
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a fantastic record here at this track with 18 winners from 55 since 2004. That's a near 1-in-3 strike rate (32.7%) generating level stakes profits of 12.9pts (23.4% ROI) with all 18 winners coming from the 42 runners priced at 6/1 or under. That improves the strike rate 42.9% with profits of 25.9pts and an ROI of 61.6%.
Those figures aren't skewed by a glut of winners from years ago either. In the last three years or so, Mr Henderson has had 11 winners from his 28 runners here (39.3% SR) for 10.2pts (+36.5% ROI) profit with the 11 winners coming from the 21 horses priced at 6/1 or under: a strike rate of 52.4% producing profits of 17.2pts (+81.9% ROI)
In conclusion, he doesn't send many runners here, but when they're priced at 6/1 or under, they go well. In fact, his overall record here with horses running in hurdles contests and sent off as favourite or joint favourite is 10/17 (58.8% SR) for 14.5pts (+85.1% ROI): not bad at all for favourite backers!
The yard has just one runner anywhere today, Cool Macavity, who was a useful sort on the flat (won at 7f and twice at 1m2f) before switching codes, where has won three of his four races. His three novice hurdle wins have come over slightly shorter trips than today, but he has continually looked like he has more to give and if he gets the extra two furlongs here today, has every chance of scoring again. Speed between the hurdles certainly won't be the issue!
Cool Macavity also takes two steps up in class today, but his yard have a great record when moving horses up in grade quickly. In the last three seasons they have moved seventy-three 4 & 5 yr old hurdlers up two or three classes with 26 of those 73 (35.6%) winning, securing level stakes profits of 56.3pts , a return of 77.1%.
To further refine those numbers: Nicky Henderson has had 12 winners from 22 horses priced at 6/1 or under, aged 5yrs old stepping up two classes in hurdles races over the last three seasons. That's a 54.6% strike rate, generating 20.14pts profit (+91.6% ROI) with a two from three record this season with winners at 7/4 and 7/2.
And despite any fears about the step up in both trip and class, I'd expect Cool Macavitiy to be at the head of the market and as such I'd expect him to shorten as the day progresses. I've just taken the 3/1 BOG on offer from BetVictor, as I'm not sure how long that price will hold. William Hill are currently offering the same price, but again, I doubt it'll be around for too long. My advice, as always, is to...