Tag Archives: Newton Abbot

Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2013

We backed Cape Factor at 3/1 yesterday and although she was as low as 9/4 at times during the day, drifted in the market to an SP of 7/2. She swept into the lead with just over a furlong to go and despite a late surge from the eventual runner-up Jive, she held on to score by a neck to take her record to 2/2.

The 3.5pts profit was a welcome respite for me and I'm looking for back to back winners with an evening trip to Devon for the...

6.35 Newton Abbot

Trainer Nicky Henderson has a fantastic record here at this track with 18 winners from 55 since 2004. That's a near 1-in-3 strike rate (32.7%) generating level stakes profits of 12.9pts (23.4% ROI) with all 18 winners coming from the 42 runners priced at 6/1 or under. That improves the strike rate 42.9% with profits of 25.9pts and an ROI of 61.6%.

Those figures aren't skewed by a glut of winners from years ago either. In the last three years or so, Mr Henderson has had 11 winners from his 28 runners here (39.3% SR) for 10.2pts (+36.5% ROI) profit with the 11 winners coming from the 21 horses priced at 6/1 or under: a strike rate of 52.4% producing profits of 17.2pts (+81.9% ROI)

In conclusion, he doesn't send many runners here, but when they're priced at 6/1 or under, they go well. In fact, his overall record here with horses running in hurdles contests and sent off as favourite or joint favourite is 10/17 (58.8% SR) for 14.5pts (+85.1% ROI): not bad at all for favourite backers!

The yard has just one runner anywhere today, Cool Macavity, who was a useful sort on the flat (won at 7f and twice at 1m2f) before switching codes, where has won three of his four races. His three novice hurdle wins have come over slightly shorter trips than today, but he has continually looked like he has more to give and if he gets the extra two furlongs here today, has every chance of scoring again. Speed between the hurdles certainly won't be the issue!

Cool Macavity also takes two steps up in class today, but his yard have a great record when moving horses up in grade quickly. In the last three seasons they have moved seventy-three 4 & 5 yr old hurdlers up two or three classes with 26 of those 73 (35.6%) winning, securing level stakes profits of 56.3pts , a return of  77.1%.

To further refine those numbers: Nicky Henderson has had 12 winners from 22 horses priced at 6/1 or under, aged 5yrs old stepping up two classes in hurdles races over the last three seasons. That's a 54.6% strike rate, generating 20.14pts profit (+91.6% ROI) with a two from three record this season with winners at 7/4 and 7/2.

And despite any fears about the step up in both trip and class, I'd expect Cool Macavitiy to be at the head of the market and as such I'd expect him to shorten as the day progresses. I've just taken the 3/1 BOG on offer from BetVictor, as I'm not sure how long that price will hold. William Hill are currently offering the same price, but again, I doubt it'll be around for too long. My advice, as always, is to...

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Stat of the Day, 4th August 2012

Stat of the Day 04/08

Stat of the Day 04/08

Stat of the Day, 4th August 2012

Our trip across the water didn't prove to be fruitful yesterday, as Raz De Maree never really got involved in the race. Our advised 9/2 odds soon disappeared and the horse was as low as 5/2 in places, but beating the market was as good as it got as our selection finished 5th as 7/2 favourite. he did rally a little towards the end, but it was clearly too little, too late.

I'm already acutely aware that we've not started well in August, but those that keep the faith will ultimately be rewarded: hopefully starting today! Today's SotD is a family affair down in Devon as we tackle a 3m3f Class 3 Handicap Hurdle. Fifteen runners are currently listed to contest the...

4.20 Newton Abbot

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies must absolutely love this Devon track, as his recent strike rate here is 23% over the last to years, generating a level stakes profit of 35pts from just 30 runners. 53% of those runners have made the first three home, so ideal opportunities for E/W punters. If we narrow it down to handicap races, that win ratio improves to 30% with a 42pt profit from just 23 runners, of which 52% were again placed. All this points to an E/W bet in a handicap.

NTD has just the one runner at Newton Abbot today, as Royal Riviera contests this Handicap Hurdle for us. This horse is looking to complete a hat trick after winning at Ffos Las last time out. that race was over 3 miles on particularly heavy ground and he stayed on well that day, so I don't think he'll be too inconvenienced by the extended trip, as the ground here is much faster: Good ground is the official verdict.

Royal Riviera's recent form reads 32311 and he was partnered in all five rides by today's jockey Sam Twiston-Davies, who himself is no slouch around this track. His record in the last couple of years is 22% winners (generating 22pts profit) and 47% placers from 27 rides, whilst his record in handicaps is 30% winners for +31pts with 48% of rides getting placed.

Obviously, a lot of his rides are trained by Nigel, but impressive stats nonetheless. Royal Riviera is, of course, Sam's only scheduled ride of the day!

Royal Riviera has inevitably risen in the weights, due to his recent good form and this is reflected in the price. He is currently best priced at 12/1 (non-BOG) with SportingBet, so I'm taking some of that E/W. The current best BOG price is just 9/1, so you might want to wait and...

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Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2012

Stat of the Day 22/7

Stat of the Day 22/7

Stat of the Day: 22nd July 2012

No joy for Colditz or SotD yesterday, so we're making a long trip south from Cartmel in Cumbria to Devon some 320 miles away for a Class 5 Handicap Chase over the bare minimum 2 miles. The ground is said to be Good To Firm and we're expecting 9 runners to contest the...

4.10 Newton Abbot

Trainer Richard Harker doesn't send many horses to Newton Abbot, but his chasers tend to go well there: 2 winners and a place from his 5 representatives there in the last 2 years. He has just the one horse declared to run today and it's an old warrior: the 13-year-old Lidjo de Rouge. Our selection may well be considerably older than most of his rivals, but arrives here in good heart after two decent outings for his new yard.

He was second here a month ago and followed that up with a good win last Sunday at Stratford. He will, of course, be carrying a penalty for that win, but the drop in distance and the easier ground conditions should help to ease that extra burden. I also think that the booking of Richard Johnson is eye-catching and may well prove the difference between success and failure.

I wrote this piece at 1am, so not all the bookies had priced this one up yet. I've taken some of the 9/2 BOG that was on offer from bet365, but I strongly recommend that you...

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