Tag Archives: Newton Abbot racecourse

Stat of the Day, 29th May 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

8.10 Southwell : Fly True @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn under vet's advice)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kingston Mimosa @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Chase  for 5yo+ over 2m5½f on Good ground worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding was a runner-up LTO 22 days ago when only beaten by a length over 2m5f when staying on well. He had a claimer taking 3lbs off his mark of 78 that day and although he has been raised to 81 for that effort, he now has a 7lb claimer on board. With him now effectively being a pound better off and having the extra half furlong to stay, that could well be just enough to get him over the line for us today.

Stat-wise, I'm drawn to him for a couple of reasons, neither with masses of data but with good strike rates and ROI, as we'd like to see!

So, I'll kick off with trainer Mark Gillard's record in a micro-system I simply named "Summer Chasers" ie UK handicap chases from May to September inclusive. Since 2013, Mark's runners in such events are 7 from 24 (29.2% SR) for 24.6pts (+102.6% ROI) when priced in the 2/1 to 9/1 range (where I do most of my betting nowadays) and with today's race in mind, here's how he got those seven winners...

  • males are 7/23 (30.4%) for 25.6pts (+111.4%)
  • those rested for more than 10 days are 6/18 (33.3%) for 26.4pts (+146.6%)
  • those rated (OR) 75-85 are 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.1pts (+216.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/19 (26.3%) for 6.72pts (+35.4%)
  • here at Newton Abbot : 4/13 (30.8%) for 17.4pts (+133.9%)
  • LTO runners-up are 3/4 (75%) for 22.3pts (+557.1%)
  • in May : 3/9 (33.3%) for 18.2pts (+202.5%)
  • and over this 2m5½f trip : 2/4 (50%) for 3.51pts (+87.8%)

...and males resting for more than 10 days ahead of running at Class 5 off a mark of 75-85 are 3/6 (50% SR) for 12.2pts (+203.5%)...

The above 4 from 13 figure here at Newton Abbot wasn't too surprising, as Mark's handicap chasers sent off shorter than 10/1 at this track are 7 from 21 (33.3% SR) for 27.8pts (+132.4% ROI) overall and these include...

  • 7/20 (35%) for 28.8pts (+144%) from male runners
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 16.9pts (+187.9%) over this 2m5½f course and distance
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.3pts (+217.7%) from April to June
  • 4/4 (100%) for 27.2pts (+680%) from those beaten by 4 lengths or less LTO
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 4.21pts (+28.1%) at Class 5
  • and 2 from 2 (100%) for 20.9pts (+1045%) from LTO runners-up

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kingston Mimosa @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th August 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

7.35 Lingfield : Dr Doro @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Tracked leader centre, led this group over 2f out, ridden and every chance over 1f out, kept on one pace)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sword of Fate 7/2 BOG

In a 4-runner, Class 3 Novices Chase for 5yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9115 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding comes here in fine form, having won three of his last four starts and is 3 from 3 over fences, including a course and distance win here last time out a month ago.

That race was a similar Class 3 one to today's and 5lb claimer Tommie O'Brien retains the ride on the horse that has won 6 of 11 races so far, including...

  • 5/8 going left handed (3/3 over fences)
  • 4/6 on Good ground (2/2 over fences)
  • 5/5 in fields of 1-7 runners (3/3 over fences)
  • 3/5 at the age of 5 (3/3 over fences)
  • 3/4 in non-handicaps
  • 2/4 at Class 3 (2/2 over fences)
  • 2/4 under Tommie O'Brien (1/1 over fences)
  • 3/3 in chases
  • 1/1 here at Newton Abbot (in a chase)
  • 1/1 over 2m5f (in a chase)
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (in a chase)

His trainer Tom Lacey has been a revelation over the last couple of years or so and is one of the rare breed of trainers who have been profitable to back blindly in recent years. In fact since the start of 2016, his runners are 72/326 (22.1%) for 246.7pts (+75.7% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • make runners at 58/257 (22.6%) for 224.2pts (+87.2%)
  • within 75 days of their last run = 54/235 (23%) for 146.5pts (+62.4%)
  • 5 yr olds are 33/141 (23.4%) for 152.6pts (+108.2%)
  • with Tommie O'Brien : 13/62 (21%) for 71.2pts (+114.9%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/57 (22.8%) for 47pts (+82.4%)
  • and over fences : 15/49 (30.6%) for 13.4pts (+27.2%)

AND...from the above : 5 yr old males running within 60 days of their last run are 23/86 (26.7% SR) for 118.3pts (+137.5% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Sword of Fate 7/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Sunday whilst there was plenty of 10/3 BOG elsewhere and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th June 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

7.40 Lingfield : Bellevarde @ 3/1 BOG (2.4/1 after 20p R4) WON at 7/4 (Made all, ridden and ran on final furlong to win by a length)

We continue with Monday's...

4.20 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Global Thrill @ 4/1 BOG 

An 11-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m1f on Good ground worth £5003 to the winner...  

Why?

Here we have a 9 yr old gelding with 4 wins and 2 further places from his last 8 starts, including winning over course and distance here last time out. That was in a Class 3 contest 26 days ago and although he's up 3lbs for that effort, he does now drop in class and will hopefully have too much in hand for his rivals, whose own form figures don't make good reading!

He has won 5 of 29 over hurdles, which isn't a bad return at these lower grade contests with 4 wins from 23 in handicap races. Of note today from those 29 efforts over hurdles, he is...

  • 4 from 12 wearing a tongue tie (all in hcps)
  • 4 wins and a place from 6 at this 2m1f trip (3+1 from 5 in hcps)
  • 2 from 3 here at Newton Abbot (1/2 in hcps)
  • and 2 from 2 over course and distance (1/1 in a hcp : LTO!)

In addition to his own perceived suitability, since the start of 2013 in UK NH Handicap Hurdle contests, horses with the CD icon next to their name and either won or were beaten by less than 2 lengths last time out are 233/1060 (225 SR) for 197.1pts (+18.6% ROI), from which...

  • at Class 3/4 : 167/686 (24.3%) for 245.5pts (+35.8%)
  • running at the same C&D as LTO : 150/664 (22.6%) for 127.2pts (+19.2%)
  • C&D winners LTO : 138/621 (22.2%) for 97.4pts (+15.7%)
  • 11-30 days since last run : 123/567 : 21.7%) for 142.1pts (+25.1%)
  • on good ground : 95/413 (23%) for 165.3pts (+40%)
  • 9 yr olds are 26/111 (23.4%) for 82.1pts (+74%)
  • in June : 17/63 (27%) for 60.5pts (+96.1%)
  • and here at Newton Abbot : 10/44 (22.7%) for 36.8pts (+83.5%)

And based around the above filters...Class 3/4 on Good/Good to Soft, horses who won over C&D LTO 16-60 days earlier = 33/132 (25% SR) for 107.8pts (+81.6% ROI), with those running in June winning 7 of 13 (53.9%) for 49.8pts (+383.3%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Global Thrill @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power (the first to break cover) at 4.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.40 Chester : Miracle of Medinah @ 9/2 BOG 8th at 9/4 (Mid-division, under pressure over 3f out, no impression)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Polo The Mumm at 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is positively thriving since a switch to Jackie du Plessis' yard, winning two of three starts since the move and he comes here seeking a hat-trick after a 2 length win at Worcester over 2m4f, before a very comfortable 14 lengths romp here over this course and distance 37 days ago.

He's been thumped with a massive 12lb rise in weight for that win, but the truth is that he could have won by a country mile LTO had that been required, so 12lbs isn't insurmountable. He's got his regular rider on board today and they'll be looking to improve the record of Jackie du Plessis' handicap hurdlers, who are 7 from 39 (18% SR) for 40.5pts (+103.9% ROI) profit since the start of 2014.

And as a course and distance winner last time out, he now becomes of further interest to me, as since the start of 2012, handicap hurdlers with the CD logo on the railcard and who were winners (anywhere, any trip) LTO are 210/970 (21.7% SR) for 180.1pts (+18.6% ROI), of which those who actually won over course and distance last time out went on to "double up" on 154 of 677 (22.8% SR) occasions for profits of 140.9pts at an ROI of 20.8%

Plus, in that same 2012-16 timeframe, male handicap hurdlers who won by 4 lengths or more last time out, 3 to 60 days ago, are 316/1237 (25.6% SR) for 209.6pts (+16.9% ROI), from which...

  • those who won by 4-15 lengths are 286/1104 (25.9%) for 214.8pts (+19.5%)
  • over trips of 2m1f to 2m7.5f : 191/658 (29%) for 229.5pts (+34.9%)
  • 21-45 days since they last ran : 94/449 (20.9%) for 128.1pts (+28.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 122/396 (30.8%) for 80.2pts (+20.2%)
  • 6 yr olds are 81/335 (24.2%) for 68.8pts (+20.5%)

AND...6-8 yr olds / Class 4 / 2m1f-2m7.5f / 21-45 dslr / won by 4-15 L LTO = 18/39 (46.2% SR) for 63.9pts (+163.9% ROI)

...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Polo The Mumm at 9/2 BOG, which was available in 8 or 9 places at 9.30pm on Sunday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Newton Abbot.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 25th May 2016

Tuesday's Result :

4.45 Wolverhampton : Bayan Kasirga @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Slowly into stride and carried slightly right start, behind, outpaced on outside into straight, soon ridden, headway over 1f out, went 4th inside final furlong, kept on well, not reach leaders).

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

7.40 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Native Robin at 4/1 BOG.

Why?

This 6yr old gelding has taken brilliantly to fences, winning both efforts so far, including one win on good to soft ground like he'll face today. He has won at both this C4 grade and also at Class 3 last time out, both under today's jockey Nick Scholfield and both in handicaps.

He's understandably up 5lbs for his latest win, but the drop in class should help, as should his yard's record with horses coming down in grade.

Since the start of 2013, trainer Jeremy Scott's horses dropping down a grade or two in Nh handicaps are 14 from 76 (18.4% SR) for 20.4pts (+26.9% ROI) profit, a nice little angle to keep onside of, but further inspection shows some interesting subsets of data that are all applicable today...

  • those dropping just one class are 13/68 (19.1% SR) for 17.2pts (+25.3% ROI)
  • males are 13/62 (21% SR) for 23pts (+37.1% ROI)
  • those in the top 6 LTO are 12/47 (25.5% SR) for 30.3pts (+64.4% ROI)
  • those priced at 3/1 to 10/1 are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 44.6pts (+103.8% ROI)
  • over 2m3.5f to 2m6.5f : 9/31 (29% SR) for 34.8pts (+112.3% ROI)
  • those last seen 46-240 days ago : 9/30 (30% SR) for 32pts (+106.7% ROI)
  • chasers are also 9/30 (30% SR), but for 26.6pts (+88.7% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 17.5pts (+58.2% ROI)
  • those dropping from Class 3 LTO are 7/28 (25% SR) for 19.5pts (+69.5% ROI)
  • here at Newton Abbot : 3/5 (60% SR) for 20pts (+400% ROI)
  • and LTO winners are 2 from 4 950% SR) for 1.71pts at an ROI of 42.9%

And so the call is...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin at 4/1 BOG with any one of the half dozen or so bookies offering that price at 6.30pm. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 5th April 2016

Monday's Result :

3.30 Warwick: Dawson City @ 11/4 BOG (11/5 after R4) 2nd at 13/8 (We got 135% of SP of one that ran well enough, outpaced in the midsection, stayed on well and perhaps 3m was too short?)

Tuesday's runner goes in the...

3.35 Newton Abbot:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Winged Express @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Well, he would appear to be well suited by today's race conditions and comes here in good form, having won over fences last time out 38 days ago. Prior to that he finished 2213 over hurdles and has won on both soft & heavy ground in the past, as well as over today's trip. He's also won twice from 6 races under Ian Popham, has a couple of wins at this grade and he's 2 from 4 in the hood.

All the above are positives to me, but none more so than the fact that this one is trained by the relatively new trainer, Alex Dunn, who has really hit the ground running with 30 winners from 219 NH handicappers (13.7% SR) since the start of 2014 and this has produced 96.6pts (+44.1% ROI) profits to date. And in respect of today's encounter, those runners are...

  • 15/129 (11.6% SR) for 49.8pts (+38.6% ROI) over hurdles
  • 19/105 (18.1% SR) for 28.3pts (+26.9% ROI) on soft/heavy ground
  • 17/81 (21% SR) for 60.1pts (+74.2% ROI) at Class 5
  • 12/73 (16.4% SR) for 20pts (+27.4% ROI) over 2m/2m0.5f
  • 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 7.2pts (+24.8% ROI) from LTO winners
  • 3/9 (33.3% SR) for 50.1pts (+556.7% ROI) under Ian Popham.

And Class 5 hcp hurdlers on soft/heavy ground are 9/31 (29% SR) for 37.8pts (+121.9% ROI), with those competing at 1m7.5f to 2m2.5f winning 7 of 19 (36.8% SR) for 40.1pts (+210.8% ROI).

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Winged Express at 7/2 BOG with Paddy Power or SkyBet, whilst there's 10/3 BOG on offer elsewhere. For a fuller market picture, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2015

The Dukkerer was very disappointing at Chelmsford on Thursday evening, it has to be said. I really thought we'd bought ourselves a real chance at a decent price, but I was wrong on both counts!

The market didn't like the horse's chances and she was eventually sent off at 7/1, a full point longer than advised and then ran a strange sort of race, travelling wide before a short unsustained effort before making a hasty retreat to the back of the pack.

In the end, she was last home of 11 and beaten by the thick end of 10 lengths and having looked weary in the closing stages of a 10 furlong, perhaps she now needs a rest after 33 races in 26 months.

Back to the jumps we go on Friday, for the...

4.05 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

And a 5/1 BOG bet with the Betfair Sportsbook on Amour D'Or, a 4yr old filly making her handicap debut in a Class 4 hurdle over 2m 5.5f on what will be just her 8th run to date. She was last seen in the UK finishing second at Worcester almost 16 weeks ago, but has been over to France for one race, where she won over hurdles by 10 lengths at Lion D'Angers eight weeks ago.

She is trained by Nick Williams and as I pointed out last Saturday, he does very well with horses running in what I term the "winter season" ie October to April, aged 4 to 7 with less than 10 runs under their belt and since 2009, such horses have won 80 of 410 (19.5% SR) races for level stakes profits of 180.3pts at an ROI of 44%, including, of course, Saturday's excellent 6/1 winner.

I'm not ashamed to use the same headline stat twice inside a week, especially when it's as solid as this one, but this is a different race and will have some other angles to explore. I'd be backing this horse today anyway, regardless of it being the SotD horse, purely on the above figures, but with the actual race in mind, I've got no less than a dozen profitable criteria that this selection meets!

So, in descending order of sample size derived from the 410 runners above, let's go!

  1. Hurdlers are 46/248 (18.6% SR) for 94.5pts (+38.1% ROI)
  2. In 4yo+ races, they are 48/237 (20.3% SR) for 132.2pts (+55.8% ROI)
  3. Handicappers are 36/188 (19.2% SR) for 79.4pts (+42.2% ROI)
  4. Those running after a break of 4 to 16 weeks are 38/180 (21.12% SR) for 81.1pts (+45.1% ROI)
  5. At trips of 2m3f to 2m6f : 34/152 (22.4% SR) for 85.1pts (+56% ROI)
  6. At Class 4 : 38/142 (26.8% SR) for 136.5pts (+96.2% ROI)
  7. 4 yr olds are 20/128 (15.6% SR)for 61.7pts (+48.2% ROI)
  8. LTO winners are 22/84 (26.2% SR) for 31.8pts (+37.9% ROI)
  9. Female runners are 10/47 (21.3% SR) for 36.5pts (+77.6% ROI)
  10. Handicap debutants are 10/43 (23.3% SR) for 36.5pts (+84.9% ROI)
  11. Those ridden by Lizzie Kelly are 14/39 (35.9% SR) for 119.4pts (+306.3% ROI)
  12. In female only races, they are 7/32 (21.9% SR) for 35.5pts (+110.8% ROI)

I could probably go on (and on and on etc), but I think there's probably about enough numbers there. The figures are solid and aren't reliant upon each other ie you could take any of the above strands and it would be viable as a micro in its own right, but I'll leave you with another of my "composites"...

Nick Williams / Class 2 to 4 / 4yo+ hurdles / Oct-Apr / 2009-15 / Aged 4 to 6 / less than 10 runs for Nick / Top4 finish LTO 11 to 60 days ago are 14/42 (33.33% SR) for 69.7pts (+165.9% ROI) with females winning 6 of 12 (50% SR) for 30.9pts at an ROI of 257.4%

The 5/1 BOG  from Betfair's Sportsbook is currently the standout price for Amour D'Or with all other firms offering 9/2 BOG. You can see if that's still the case, when you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 23rd June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd June 2015

We kicked the new week off with a narrow defeat as the 5/2 (adv 7/2) Orlando Rogue was run down and collared in the shadow of the post. It was a brave and gallant, if ultimately unsuccessful effort to win the race from the front with 5f of the 7 to run, but close shaves don't pay my bills!

It's a point dropped in reality and one I'd like back ASAP. Hopefully, I'll have it after Tuesday's...

6.00 Newton Abbot:

A Class 5 maiden hurdle over 2m 5.5f  on good ground where I've just taken 3/1 BOG about Jeremy Scott's steadily improving 5yr old mare, Midnight Mint.

Jeremy Scott isn't the busiest of trainers with regards to actual numbers of runners (that's not to say he's not busy at the yard!), but in the past two months he has had 7 winners for 31 runners (22.6% SR) and 18 of those runners have made the frame (58.1% SR).

Since 2008, his hurdlers priced at 5/4 to 7/1 (you never know where early-priced 3/1 maidens will end up!) are 62/229 (27.1% SR) for 70.6pts (+30.9% ROI) which are pretty impressive results and he's clearly found a niche for himself. With today's race in mind, those figures stack up as follows...

  • on good ground : 24/75 (32% SR) for 48.8pts (+65.1% ROI)
  • at class 5 level : 11/25 (44% SR) for 19.9pts (+79.4% ROI)
  • here at Newton Abbot : 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 5.9pts (+36.9% ROI)
  • in maidens : 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 20.4pts (+136% ROI)

Midnight Mint came back from a 15-week break to gove a career best performance in a 2m5f novice hurdle at Kempton in early May and bettered that next/last time out with another third place finish 3 weeks later (30 days ago) at Uttoxeter, where she raced prominently and was only caught and heaed late on by better horse than she'll face today.

Those last two decent efforts were both in and around today's trip and both at Class 4 and the drop in class today should make a difference for her if the jockey from last time, Liam Heard adopts similar tactics.

So, we know the trip is fine and she's running well enough whiolst improving and now drops in class, but the clincher for me is her "dad".

She's by Midnight Legend, as you'll all know by know is one of my favourite sires. I'll start by reminding you that if you backed all of his offspring in every race since the start of 2008, you wouldn't have had a losing year! In numerical terms 2797 runners have produce 411 winners (14.7% SR) for 737.4pts at an ROI of 26.4% and that's from blind, unfiltered backing.

I appreciate that not all of you would want around 370 bets a year from one micro-system and there are hundreds of ways of breaking the data down, but I'm going to use the parameters of today's contest to whittle 2797 runners down to 37 in seven simple, logical steps.

Once you arrive at a number of selections you're comfortable with, there's your own little micro! OK, so we have 411 winners from 2797 (14.7% SR) for 737.4pts at 26.4% : let's go!

  1. female offspring are 177/1197 (14.8% SR) for 325.2pts (+27.2% ROI), of which...
  2. hurdlers are 96/706 (13.6% SR) for 152.7pts (+21.6% ROI), of which...
  3. those aged 5/6 yrs old are 62/365 (17% SR) for 91.6pts (+22.4% ROI), of which...
  4. those at trips of 21f to 25f are 36/173 (20.8% SR) for 88.9pts (+51.4% ROI), of which...
  5. class 4/5 runners are 27/132 (20.5% SR) for 55.5pts (+42.1% ROI), of which...
  6. good ground runners are 14/58 (24.1% SR) for 52.3pts (+90.1% ROI) and finally...
  7. those priced below 12/1 are 14/37 (37.8% SR) for 73.3pts (+198% ROI).

And breathe! 😀

Midnight Mint is currently 3/1 BOG with both Bet365 and Paddy Power, whilst the only other book, Betfair SB, shows her at 9/4 BOG. When every firm has opened up, you'll see their prices by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 6.00 Newton Abbot

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Stat of the Day, 12th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2015

We went from the sublime of Richard Hughes' ride on Wednesday to the ridiculous of Yeeoow's disappointing performance at Nottingham on Thursday.

He set off well enough and was prominent in the early stages but faded to the extent that he was the last of the 7 runners to finish, well beaten by 14 lengths.

I'll be hoping/expecting for better on Friday in the...

3.25 Newton Abbot:

A Class 3, 5-runner handicap chase over 2m 5f on good ground where the call is a 5/2 BOG bet on Brody Bleu.

This horse has won 6 chases and a point to point over trips of 2m3f to 2m6f on a variety on ground conditions ranging from Good to Soft all the way through to Good to Firm. He was a 5/2 winner at Exeter last time out and is only rated 2lbs higher than his last win, which was his fourth in eight starts this year.

He's trained by Robert Walford, who has tasted quite a bit of success in his relatively short training career so far. In NH handicaps since the start of 2013, he has saddled up 21 winners from 96 runners (21.9% SR) for level stakes profits of 19pts at an ROI of 19.8% ROI, of which he's 2/5 for 5.75pts here at Newton Abbot.

Robert's handicap chasers are 16/46 (34.8% SR) for 22.8pts (+49.7% ROI), with his Class 3/4 runners winning 15 of 43 (34.9% SR) for 22.3pts (+51.9% ROI). Those who won last time out won again on 7 of 11 (63.6% SR) occasions for 12.75pts (+115.9% ROI).

The Walford class 3/4 handicap chasers priced at 4/6 to 8/1 are 15/36 (41.7% SR) for 29.3pts (+81.3% ROI) with LTO winners winning again 7 out of 10 times for 13.74pts profits.

Brody Bleu is in scintillating form at present finishing 23231111 this year, winning each of his last four outings. He's 6/16 over fences and conditions look ideal for him here today, as he's...

  • 4/8 on good ground
  • 5/13 under Felix de Giles
  • 2/3 at this grade
  • 1/1 here at Newton Abbot
  • 6/13 in races of 5 to 8 runners

With those conditions in place and his recent form allied to his trainer's overall record, I wouldn't be surprised to see Brody Bleu complete a 5-timer in the space of 80 days. If he does achieve the feat, then I'll be collecting another 2.5pts profit from my 5/2 BOG bet with Bet365.

There should be no problem for us all to get those odds as that price is currently available in 8 bookies as I know of, so you can either go with my choice or take your pick of the rest by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 3.25 Newton Abbot

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 27th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th May 2015

When I started to put Wednesday's piece together, Tuesday's runner hadn't even set off, so I'll have to add that result in later!

Wednesday takes us far from Hexham to Devon for the...

6.30 Newton Abbot:

A Class 4, 6-runner, handicap chase over 2m 5.5f on good ground, where top weight Bang On Time seeks a fourth win in five starts, having lost only by a neck two starts ago.

To date, he has won four chases and three PTP races at trips varying from today's 2m 5.5f up to 3m2f, so his stamina in unquestionable and he has won on ground ranging from Good to Firm right through to heavy, suggesting he acts on pretty much anything.

He was a 4/1 winner over course and distance here just eight days ago, but didn't really exert himself that day on his way to a facile 17 length victory. He is, of course, penalised for that win, but the extra 7lb is cancelled out by jockey Paul John's matching claim, plus the horse is probably still lower than his future mark.

Statistically, he's well suited to the challenge ahead of him today, he's 4/9 in handicap chases and he's finished 121 in three starts here (defeated by a neck two starts ago as above) with his last two runs coming over today's track and trip where his form reads 21.

These smaller more tactical fields suit him too, as he's 4 from 8 in races of 8 runners or less, he's 1 from 1 with today's jockey and he has won 4 of the 8 occasions when running within three weeks of his last outing.

Both form and conditions look ideal for him here, but as a returning former course and distance winner, it's useful to note that former C&D winners who returned to Newton Abbot on the back of a win (anywhere!) last time out, won again here in Devon on 21 of 97 (21.7% SR) occasions since 2008, generating level stakes profits of 54.8pts (+56.4% ROI).

Those who were winners here over course and distance last time out doubled up on 15 of 69 efforts (21.7% SR) for 13.1pts (+19.2% ROI), suggesting that whilst they maintain the strike rate, they attract more market attention, which is to be expected. Those sent off in the 2/1 to 6/1 odds range were more successful winning 11 of 46 races (23.9% SR) for profits of 12.6pts at an ROI of 27.4%.

At 8.30pm on Tuesday evening, the best price on offer for Bang On Time was the 7/2 BOG available from both Coral and SkyBet. Do, of course, check that's still the case before you place your bets by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 6.30 Newton Abbot

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.