Tag Archives: Newmarket Racecourse

Stat of the Day, 11th October 2019

Thursday's pick was...

8.00 Kempton : Chicago Doll @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders on inside, went 2nd over 1f out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Platinum Star @ 11/4 BOG

...in the 13-runner, Group 3, Cornwallis Stakes for 2yo over 5f on Good to Soft ground worth £34,026 to the winner...

Why?...

This 2 yr old Colt was only beaten by half a length in the Windsor Castle at Ascot on his only previous start over 5f. Since then, he was a runner-up in the Gr2 July Stakes (only beaten by a short head) and then got back to winning ways via a dominant display at Ripon in a Listed contest over 6f LTO, 46 days ago.

He quickened clear to score comfortably by four lengths that day and this colt by Lope De Vega has proven that he handles varying ground conditions, whilst the drop in trip should be fine after that display at Ascot in the summer. His record on turf includes 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from 5 starts and I'd expect him to go 3 from 6 today,

His trainer, Saeed bin Suroor, has got his horses in really good nick at the latter end of the season as shown by these current form stats...

  • 14 from 46 (30.4% SR) over the last 30 days
  • 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) over the past fortnight
  • and 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) over the last 7 days

Oisin Murphy is set to take the ride today and he is 16 from 50 (32% SR) for 16.54pts (+33.1% ROI) on Saeed bin Suroor trained runners this year, from which...

  • 12/34 (35.3%) for 20.1pts (+59.2%) on Turf
  • 9/20 (45%) for 21.7pts (+108.5%) since the start of September
  • and 6/12 (50%) for 19.4pts (+161.3%) on turf since September 1st...

...whilst more long-term (ie since the start of 2015), the pair are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 25.4pts (+158.9% ROI) on the Rowley track here at HQ, including...

  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 17.93pts (+137.9%) with male runners
  • 6/12 (50%) for 17.55pts (+146.3%) during September & October
  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.9pts (+278%) in 13/14 runner fields
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.53pts (+317.5%) at Class 1, all of which were males in Sept/Oct!

...which all points to... a 1pt win bet on Platinum Star @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 5.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.00 Newbury : Charlemaine @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Reason: Going)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dazzling Dan @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good ground worth £28,012 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has had 8 runs to date, all over today's 6f trip and he he has made the frame 6 times, winning twice. He went down by just a length last time out, when beaten into third place over this course and distance in a much more valuable Class 2 handicap 37 days ago.

He has been placed on both previous runs over course and distance and was a winner on his only run on the Rowley Mile and has a win and a place from 3 rides under today's jockey David Probert. He also has a win and a place from 3 efforts at Class 2 and a win and a place from two starts on Good ground.

His trainer Pam Sly is another who doesn't break too many pots, but is very good in certain conditions and her speciality seems to be over shorter distances, as over the last three Flat seasons, her runners are 12 from 52 (23.1% SR) for 49.9pts (+95.9% ROI) over trips of 6 to 7.5 furlongs, including of relevance today...

  • 10/37 (27%) for 48.5pts (+131.1%) from May to August
  • 9/38 (23.7%) for 30pts (+79%) at 10-40 days since last run
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 23.4pts (+123.4%) at 2/1 to 5/1
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 20pts (+105.1%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 47.7pts (+340.9%) over a 6f trip
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 33.1pts (+254.7%) from 3 yr olds
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 9.3pts (+155%) in August

...from which...those sent off at 2/1 to 5/1 during May to August some 10 to 40 days after a top 3 finish LTO are 6 from 7 (85.7% SR) for 28.5pts (+407.1% ROI) including 3/4 from 3 yr olds, 2/2 over 6f and 2/2 in August...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dazzling Dan @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor respectively at 11.00pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th July 2019

Thursday's pick was...

7.55 Doncaster : Waterfront @ 4/1 BOG NR ()

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.10 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Baba Ghanouj @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on good to firm ground worth £9057 to the winner...

Why?...

It's another hot trainer/hot jockey combo today, as we match Ed Walker's sizzling recent form with Andrea Atzeni's 'go to' credentials for the yard.

Walker has saddled eight winners in the past two weeks, from 26 runners (31%) for a profit of 16.25 (A/E 1.8, IV 2.82). Focusing on handicaps only, those numbers improve to 7 from 18 (+17.25, A/E 1.91, IV 3.63).

Meanwhile, Atzeni has ridden 13 winners from 65 rides at Newmarket in the last year (20%) for a small profit (A/E 1.1, IV 1.83)

And in partnership, the Walker/Atzeni axis has combined 13 times in the last year, for seven wins and three further places (54% win rate, +36.12, A/E 2.52, IV 5.18).

Those are smashing numbers and make the three-year-old Baba Ghanouj, in receipt of weight for age, well worth a go...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Baba Ghanouj @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 6pm on Thursday with William Hill. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th July 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.20 Yarmouth : Soloist @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Raced wide close up, pushed along over 3f out, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Guildsman @ 7/2 BOG

...in the 8-runner, Group 2, Tattersalls July Stakes for 2yo over 6f on Good To Firm worth £45368 to the winner... 

Why?...

As one of my rare forays to Group racing (and an even rarer 2yo pick), I'm looking to this 2yr old Colt who won very comfortably on debut, winning by 6 lengths over this 6f trip at Goodwood, ahead of a very good 3rd of 17 runners in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes over 6f 23 days ago.

He was only half a length off the winner Arizona that day and it's worth knowing that the last six horses to run in this race directly after making the frame in the Coventry have finished 233221 here, so it's a useful guide.

As with this colt's previous two runs, Oisin Murphy is in the saddle and the trip is 6f, so there's some continuity there.

Stat-wise, I'm always interested to see trainer Archie Watson's late season 2 yr olds, especially those racing on the Flat over 5f to 10f. Since 2016, during the months of July to October, such runners sent off at odds of Evens to 15/2 within 60 days of their last run are 22 from 56 (39.3% SR) for 36.25pts (+64.7% ROI), from which the following dozen angles are applicable/relevant today...

  • 19/41 (46.3%) for 43.56pts (+106.2%) with fewer than 5 previous runs
  • 14/36 (38.9%) for 14.16pts (+39.3%) in non-hcps
  • 13/24 (54.2%) for 35.32pts (+147.2%) over 6f
  • 11/21 (52.4%) for 21.23pts (+101.1%) at 16-25 days since last run
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 5.05pts (+23%) from male runners
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 11.9pts (+51.7%) at the same class as LTO
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 15.2pts (+101.3%) in July
  • 6/12 (50%) for 16.55pts (+137.9%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 18.62pts (+206.9%) with Oisin Murphy aboard
  • 3/4 (75%) for 18.38pts (+459.5%) who ran in a Group race LTO
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.29pts (+476.2%) ran at Gr 2 LTO
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 4.09pts (+409%) in Gr 2 races...

...from which... those with fewer than five previous outings now racing over 6f in non-handicaps after a break of 16-25 days are 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 12.18pts (+203% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Guildsman @ 7/2 BOG as offered by pretty much everyone and his dog at 6.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2019

Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Ffos Las : Grania O'Malley @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (2nd until led before 10th, soon 4 lengths clear, maintained advantage until last, driven and held on gamely close home)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.50 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Agincourt @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3 Fillies Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £9704 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old filly has three wins and two runner-up finishes in her last six starts (form = 181212), winning alternate races and making herself of instant appeal to those who like numerical sequences 😉

She was less than a length behind Victory Wave last time out (15 days ago) in a Class 2 contest at Chelmsford over a mile, so she's dropping in class and trip today for her reappearance, whilst her victor from that race has since stepped up to Listed class.

She has 3 wins from 9 overall, from which the following increase her appeal today...

  • 3/4 in fields of 9 or more runners
  • 3/6 over 7f/1m
  • 2/5 in handicaps
  • 1/1 at Class 3
  • 1/1 on Good to Soft
  • and 1/2 over 7f

Danny Tudhope rode her to victory two starts ago (he wasn't on board LTO) and he has a win and a place from three starts on this filly and he arrives here in excellent form, maintaining a consistent 20%+ strike rate over the last couple months, including 6 winners from 18 over the last five days, amongst which he has 3 wins and a place from just five rides at Royal Ascot!

Regarding Mr Tudhope, much has been written (including by me!) about his record/relationship with David O'Meara, so I'm not going to plough that well-worn furrow and bore you with those figures today, but I do want to touch on one aspect of their partnership that I do keep an eye out for, as some of you might not be aware that the combo are 14 from 51 (27.5% SR) for 47.5pts (+93.1% ROI) with runners sent off at 10/1 and shorter in Fillies' handicaps on the Flat.

And of this 14/51 record, the partnership is...

  • 13/38 (34.2%) for 47.1pts (+124.1%) with runners last seen 6-30 days earlier
  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 48.5pts (+127.7%) in 3yo+ races
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 23.4pts (+129.9%) at Class 3
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 19.2pts (+213.4%) over 7f
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 17.1pts (+190.2%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 15pts (+250%) from those dropping down a class

...and if you wanted 95% of the original profits from just 55% of the bets, then those racing in 3yo+ contests after a break of 6-30 days are 11 from 28 (39.3%) for 45.2pts (+161.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Agincourt @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG as offered by Bet365 & Ladbrokes at 6.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.10 Salisbury : Bella Vita @ 9/2 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up in touch, headway to chase leaders over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.75 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gumball @ 9/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Good ground worth £18675 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was 3 from 9 over hurdles before switching to "level ground" in late February this year and is now 3 from 3 on the Flat/AW after 2 wins over 1m4f at Class 5, before landing a similar Class 3, 1m6f contest to today's when last seen 19 days ago at Salisbury, clear by 2 lengths and looking comfortable.

With regards to today's challenge, he is...

  • 6 from 9 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 6 from 6 at Class 3 or below
  • 3 from 4 going right handed
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 in 2m hurdle contests, so stamina shouldn't be an issue
  • 2 from 3 on Good ground
  • and 2 from 2 under today's jockey Oisin Murphy

He is trained by Philip Hobbs, best known for his NH runners, of course, but has dabbled successfully in the past 10 years with hurdlers running on the Flat/AW and over the last two years, his Flat/AW runners are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 8.36pts (+92.4% ROI) at trips of 1m4f to 1m6f, all of them male, including...

  • 5 from 7 at 4/1 and shorter
  • 4 from 7 in the February to June period
  • and 4 from 6 with 5 yr olds

And more generally, since 2014, in Flat handicaps over 2m or shorter, horses racing off the back of three consecutive wins are 104/502 (20.7% SR) for 96.7pts (+19.3% ROI) and these include of relevance/note today...

  • last 3 runs/wins all "on the level" : 99/482 (20.5%) for 85.8pts (+17.8%)
  • males are 78/378 (20.6%) for 101.3pts (+26.8%)
  • from March to August : 83/375 (22.1%) for 124.3pts (+33.2%)
  • 16-25 dslr : 26/125 (20.8%) for 55.4pts (+44.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 17/75 (22.7%) for 79.7pts (+106.3%)
  • over 1m6f to 2m : 15/55 (27.3%) for 27.9pts (+50.7%)
  • and this year alone : 7/11 (63.6%) for 18.15pts (+165%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gumball @ 9/4 BOG which was quite widely available at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.10 Lingfield : Chica de la Noche @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, led over 2f out, soon pressed, kept on well to win by 0.75 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mabs Cross @ 6/1 BOG

...in the 11-runner, Group 3, Palace House Stakes for 3yo+ over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £34026 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, I'm going to keep this really simple with a 5 yr old Mare who won this race last year and looks overpriced (IMO) to repeat the feat. I'd say she's the price she is because there's an AP O'Brien 3 yr old in the mix, as opposed to any doubts about her ability.

Based on her career to date and notwithstanding the short priced favourite, conditions really are set up for her to produce her best effort and it's her suitability for today's race conditions that tell me she shouldn't be a 6/1 shot, as to date she has 5 wins and 4 places from 12 runs, including the following of relevance today...

  • 5w, 3p from 10 over 5f
  • 5w, 1p from 9 in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 5w, 2pl from 8 for prizes below £35k
  • 5w, 2pl from 8 at odds shorter than 8/1
  • 5w, 2pl from 8 under jockey Paul Mulrennan
  • 2w, 3pl from 6 on good to firm
  • 1 from 1 at group 3
  • 1/1 here at Newmarket
  • and 1/1 over course and distance (last yrs race)

...whilst from the above... Paul Mulrennan + Mabs Cross + 5f + 6-11 runners + shorter than 8/1 + prize less than £35k = 5/5 (100% SR) for 18.34pts (+366.8% ROI)...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Mabs Cross @ 6/1 BOG which was offered by BetVictor & Unibet amongst others at 5.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd November 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.50 Uttoxeter : Troubled Soul @ 3/1 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn at 10:22am Reason: Vets Cert - Stiff

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mitchum Swagger @ 9/2 BOG  

...in the 6-runner, Listed Price Bailey Ben Marshall Stakes for 3yo+ over 1on Soft ground worth £20983 to the winner...

Why?

This 6yr old gelding doesn't admittedly win often enough but under similar conditions to today does tend to at least be on the premises when push comes to shove.

He has made the frame in 6 of 12 (50%) runs over the 1m trip including one win, he has placed in 5 of 8 (62.5%) on soft ground and has one win and one place from two runs in fields of 7 runners or less.

His only previous run on the Rowley track here at HQ saw him beaten by just a head as a runner-up in this very race three years ago, also on soft ground.

He is trained by Ralph Beckett, whose runners are 6 from 24 (25% SR) over the last fortnight, whilst here on the Rowley, his runners have won 16 of 131 (12.2% SR) for 22.1pts (+16.9%) over the last six seasons, including of note/relevance today...

  • males are 10/62 (16.1%) for 25.3pts (+40.7%)
  • over trips of 1m to 1m2f : 10/59 (16.9%) for 54.5pts (+92.4%)
  • males racing over 8 to 10f are 8/32 (25%)
  • those last seen 16 to 30 days earlier are 5/32 (15.6%) for 19.8pts (+61.8%)
  • those ridden by Harry Bentley are 4/18 (22.2%) for 22.4pts (+124.3%)
  • males racing over 8 to 10f, 11-45 days since their last run are 6/14 (42.9%) for 50.8pts (+363%)
  • and males ridden by Harry Bentley over 1m to 1m2f, 11-45 dslr are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 27.9pts at an ROI of 930% with the "loser" beaten by just a head as a runner-up...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Mitchum Swagger @ 9/2 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.25pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th October 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

2.15 Bangor : Handy Hollow @ 3/1 BOG UR at 9/4 (Took keen hold, led, going well enough before blundered and unseated rider at 4th)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Astronomer @ 9/2 BOG  

...in an 11-runner, Class 2, Heritage Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good to Firm ground worth £74700 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old colt has finished 41111 so far, including 4/4 under today's jockey Donnacha O'Brien, 3/4 on the Flat, 2/2 at 1m4f and 2/2 in handicaps. He's won on Good, Soft and A/W too so the ground shouldn't be an issue either. This is a tougher task than he's faced so far but (a) that's why were not facing really short odds and (b) I think he has plenty more in his locker.

Over the last 14 days...

  • Trainer Aidan (AP) O'Brien is 16/52 (30.8% SR) for 10.8pts (+20.8% ROI)
  • Jockey Donnacha is 8/28 (28.6%) for 1.91pts (+6.81%)
  • And together they are 6/17 (35.3%) for 6.56pts (+38.6%)

And here on the Rowley over the last four seasons...

  • AP is 27/113 (23.9%) for 59.9pts (+53%)
  • Donnacha is 4/12 (33.3%) for 12.54pts (+104.5%)
  • And together : 4/9 (44.4%) for 15.54pts (+172.7%)

And from AP's 27 from 113 record here quoted above...

  • 11-45 days since last run : 17/64 (26.6%) for 65.8pts (+102.8%)
  • on Good to Firm : 16/50 (32%) for 74.9pts (+149.8%)
  • LTO winners : 14/44 (31.8%) for 16.9pts (+38.4%)
  • 3 yr olds : 9/45 920%) for 11.6pts (+25.7%)
  • at Class 2 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 9.66pts (+138%)

And, since the start of 2015, Irish horses (ie those with IRE after their name) are 131/998 (13.1% SR) for 131.3pts (+13.2% ROI) in UK Flat/AW handicaps after having run in Ireland last time out, from which...

  • those whose yard run most of their races in Leinster, Ireland are 88/531 (16.6%) for 165.7pts (+31.2%)
  • 16-25 days since last run : 36/202 (17.8%) for 76pts (+37.6%)
  • over a 1m4f trip : 16/81 (19.75%) for 84.6pts (+104.5%)

...and from the above, there's a nice little micro (or nugget as someone on the Gold forum very kindly described these supplementary angles) whereby in this 2015-18 timeframe, those whose yard run most of their races in Leinster, Ireland and are now racing over 7.5 to 12 furlongs, within 25 days of their last run are 33/129 (25.6% SR) for 133.9pts (+103.8% ROI), including 4 winners from 8 for 33.9pts over the last five weeks!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Astronomer @ 9/2 BOG, a price available from BetVictor, BlackType, Coral & Ladbrokes at 4.50pm on Thursday evening, a price still widely available at 8.45am Friday when I started typing my notes up.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

4.25 Pontefract : Francis Xavier @ 9/2 BOG (=3.6/1 after 20p R4) WON at 5/2 (Mid-division on inside, headway over 2f out, switched right over 1f out, stayed on to lead inside final 150 yards, soon clear, eased towards finish, winning by 1.75 lengths) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Main Edition @ 10/3 BOG  

In a 9-runner, Fillies Group 2, Flat contest (the Shadwell Rockfel Stakes) for 2yo over 7f on Good ground, worth £56710 to the winner...

Why?

This 2yr old filly (obviously!) has won 4 of her 6 starts so far, including 2 x Group 3's. She's never run on genuinely good ground before but is 3 from 4 on Good to Soft / Good to Firm, she's 4 from 5 on a straight track and 3 from 4 and since winning on debut is 3 from 4 after a rest of less than 30 days.

Her trainer Mark Johnston is 8 from 46 (17.4% SR) for 27pts (+58.6% ROI) over the last 7 days and here on the Rowley track at HQ has saddled up 49 winners from 388 (12.6% SR) for 168.6pts (+43.5% ROI) over the last 8 (inc. this one)seasons, including...

  • after 6 to 15 days rest : 32/136 (23.5%) for 334pts (+245.6%)
  • in September : 11/82 (13.4%) for 12.5pts (+15.3%)
  • at Class 1 : 13/78(16.7%) for 9.57pts (+12.3%)
  • at the Cambridgeshire meeting : 8/58 (13.8%) for 16.4pts (+28.2%)
  • and at Group 2 : 3/12 (25%) for 6.33pts (+52.8%)

And who would you want in the saddle for a competitive Group race at HQ?

Frankie, of course!

The irrepressible Mr Dettori has only got two rides booked today and this look his best chance, so we should see him give everything he's got here. He's been in the frame in 10 of his last 11 rides, including 4 wins and 4 runner-up finishes, whilst his overall record in Class 1 to 3 non-handicaps is exceptional.

Over the least 5 seasons in such contests, he is 142/589 (24.1% SR) for 177.5pts (+30.1%), including...

  • 118/505 (23.4%) for 152.3pts (+30.2%) at Class 1
  • 46/159 (28.9%) for 57.9pts (+36.4%) with 2 yr olds
  • 29/115 (25.2%) for 64.1pts (+55.8%) at Group 2
  • 35/110 (31.8%) for 62.5pts (+56.8%) on Class 1 2 yr olds
  • and 18/45 (40%) for 63pts (+140%) on Group 2 2 yr olds

AND...on The Rowley over the last 5 seasons, he has 39 winners from 205 (19% SR) for 94.8pts (+46.2% ROI) and this includes of relevance today...

  • in non-handicaps : 38/155 (24.5%) for 141.1pts (+91%)
  • at Class 1 : 25/97 (25.8%) for 112.4pts (+115.9%)
  • on female horses : 23/86 (26.7%) for 108.9pts (+126.7%)
  • in female-only races : 21/73 (28.8%) for 94.9pts (+130.1%)
  • on 2 yr olds : 13/64 (20.3%) for 38.3pts (+59.8%)
  • over this 7f C&D : 18/60 (30%) for 92pts (+153.3%)
  • in September : 9/47 (19.2%) for 37.1pts (+78.9%)
  • for prizes of £50k or more : 8/44 (18.2%) for 42.7pts (+97.1%)
  • at the Cambridgeshire meeting : 9/41 (22%) for 43.1pts (+105.1%)
  • and at Group 2 : 5/13 (38.5%) for 45.3pts (+348.2%)

You can, of course, mix the above to make profitable micro-angles, but constraints of time prevent me doing that for you this morning (sorry again for the delay!), so the last suggestion...

...that you place... a 1pt win bet on Main Edition @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by SkyBet, Marathon, Betfred & Totesport at 4.55pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!