Tag Archives: Newcastle racecourse

Stat of the Day, 21st December 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.20 Southwell : Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned after the refund cut-off point)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3,  Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £7,213 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding comes here on the back of four straight wins, a run of form that represents his entire record from the last winter season and his entire chasing career to date. He was last seen winning by five lengths over much further (3m1f) on similarly soft ground and now attempts to pick up where he left off some 41 weeks ago.

I'm not too concerned about the layoff, as the first of those four wins came a year and a day ago, having been off the track for 36 weeks, so he's expected to go well fresh again today and with regards to his so-far perfect 4 from 4 record over fences...

  • he's 3/3 on Soft ground, the other win was on heavy
  • he has won over 2m4f previously, but has the stamina to stay 3m1f
  • today's jockey Brian Hughes has ridden all four wins
  • all four wins were on left handed tracks
  • he's 3 from 3 as a 7 yr old

Both trainer Nicky Richards and jockey Brian Hughes have good records here at Newcastle and that's a fairly well worn statistical path and is denoted on your racecard with the green icons, so I'm not going there today. Instead, I'm hopefully going to tell you something you don't already know about Glittering Love's suitability for the task, based on his breeding.

He's by Winged Love, whose offspring are 57 from 291 (19.6% SR) for 68.9pts (+23.7% ROI) in UK NH handicaps on Soft ground or "worse" over the last 5 years, including of note/relevance today...

  • 53/216 (24.5%) for 115.9pts (+53.7%) at odds of 6/5 to 12/1
  • 44/208 (21.2%) for 59.2pts (+28.5%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 44/190 (23.2%) for 62.2pts (+32.8%) with horses younger than 9 yrs old
  • 36/191 (18.9%) for 60.7pts (+31.8%) on soft ground
  • 33/178 (18.5%) for 55.2pts (+31%) over fences
  • 30/107 (28%) for 78.8pts (+73.6%) during December & January
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 38.0pts (+65.6%) over 2m4f-2m4.5f
  • 9/16 (56.25%) for 18.4pts (+115.2%) trained by Nicky Richards
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 21.4pts (+178.7%) here at Newcastle
  • and 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 9.3pts (+154.7%) with Brian Hughes in the saddle...

...whilst if you wanted a 25-30 picks per year micro-system based around the above that used just 47% of the original 291 bets, but generated nearly 74% of the winners and almost doubled the profits, then 5-11 yr olds sent off at 6/5 to 12/1 at Classes 2 to 5 during November to February are 42 from 137 (30.7% SR) for 135.6pts at an ROI of 99%...

...sending us off for Christmas with...a 1pt win bet on Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.05 Newcastle : Harry's Bar @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (In touch, ridden and headway over 1f out, stayed on towards finish, but beaten by half a length)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Be Proud @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

In a week where we're looking for a winner after repeatedly coming close, it's perhaps fitting that I've sided with this 3 yr old gelding that has just one win in his last eight starts, but has been the runner-up in five of the seven losing runs, the latest here over course and distance three weeks ago, when caught on the line and beaten by a short head.

I think something may have spooked him that day, as he looked the winner all over before swerving almost violently in the closing strides, throwing away the race in the process. He'd not done that before, so I'm assuming it doesn't happen here today, where a repeat of the actual run from last time would be enough to land this contest, thus repeating his 5 length course and distance success from eight weeks ago.

Despite seeming like a perennial bridesmaid, his form lines do give us some hope here, as they include the following results...

  • 41522 here on the A/W at Newcastle
  • 4122 over 5f
  • 4122 over course and distance
  • 622 under jockey Ben Robinson
  • and 22 in Class 5 contests worth less than £3,500 to the winner

His trainer, Jim Goldie, has done really well at this venue over the last couple of years, with his handicappers winning 30 of 160 (18.75% SR) for 50.4pts (+31.5% ROI) when sent off at 12/1 or shorter on the tapeta here over the last two years, including..

  • 24/116 (20.7%) for 63.7pts (+54.9%) in fields of 9-14 runners
  • 20/98 (20.4%) for 51.3pts (+52.3%) after a break of 2 to 8 weeks
  • 13/58 (22.4%) for 19.3pts (+33.3%) over this 5f course and distance
  • 10/39 (25.6%) for 46.8pts (+120%) during November & December
  • 9/42 (21.4%) for 11.3pts (+26.9%) at Class 5
  • 9/35 (25.7%) for 28.1pts (+80.3%) with 1 previous track win
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 17.5pts (+79.7%) from 3 yr olds
  • and 6/25 (24%) for 21.8pts (+87%) in November...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Be Proud @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

7.10 Kempton : Sir Prize @ 5/1 2nd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, driven and headway to challenge on inside over 1f out, soon ridden, stayed on and every chance throughout final furlong, just held off by a neck : our second defeat to jockey Hollie Doyle in as many days!)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.05 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Harry's Bar @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £7,876 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was a runner-up last time out, when beaten by just three quarters of a length behind a 99-rated runner in a Class 2 contest at Chelmsford over 6f almost 8 weeks ago. That winner has since stepped up to Listed company, whilst our boy now drops back in trip and class to run here off a mark of 91, suggesting that similar run to LTO should be more than enough.

That, of course, is supposition and I prefer to deal with facts, such as our runner's record on the A/W where he has never been out of the first three home in seven starts, including three wins and in those 7 A/W runs, he is...

  • 3/6 after a break of 3-8 weeks
  • 3/5 at odds of Evens to 5/1
  • 3/5 as favourite
  • 3/4 in handicaps
  • 3/4 over the minimum 5f trip
  • 1/2 at Class 3
  • and 1/1 on tapeta

He is trained by James Fanshawe, whose runners are 11 from 41 (26.8% SR) for 19.8pts (+48.4% ROI) on this track when sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 8/1, including...

  • 10/32 (31.3%) for 24.5pts (+76.6%) at 16-60 dslr
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 11.2pts (+48.7%) in handicaps
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 20.1pts (+91.2%) in 8-13 runner contests
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.7pts (+185.1%) with 4 yr olds
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.6pts (+129.1%) with class droppers
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.5pts (+163.9%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 11.7pts (+194.5%) this year

And with regards to those dropping in class, James' A/W handicappers dropping down a grade are 19/76 (25% SR) for 37.5pts (+49.4% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/41 (36.6%) for 35.2pts (+85.8%) after 3-8 weeks off the track
  • 14/36 (38.9%) for 19.8pts (+54.9%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 32.8pts (+117%) with 4 yr olds
  • 8/25 (32%) for 21pts (+84%) on October/November
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 14.5pts (+111.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 6.7pts (+111.2%) here at Newcastle...

...whilst those sent off at 4/1 and shorter after 3-8 weeks rest are 12 from 22 (54.6% SR) for 27.1pts (+123% ROI) and these include..

  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 10.41pts (+173.5%) on Tapeta
  • 3/4 (75%) for 8.67pts (+216.8%) at Newcastle
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 4.53pts (+151%) this year
  • 2/2 (100%) for 5.53pts (+276.5%) on Tapeta this year
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 2.79pts (+279%) here on Newcastle's Tapeta this year

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Harry's Bar @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365 & 888Sport at 5.45pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2019

Monday's pick was...

7.30 Southwell : Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Led, headed over 4f out, tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, rallied to lead again inside final furlong, soon headed)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Equiano Springs @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 2, Optional Claiming Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on tapeta worth £18,675 to the winner...

Why?...

Tom Tate and Andrew 'Midge' Mullen have a great record together. In the last two years, they've teamed up for five winners from 21 runners including Monday's 13/2 scorer, Young Tiger. That brought their two-year record to +20.25 points.

Specifically in Newcastle handicaps over the past five years, they've a phenomenal 34.62% win rate (nine winners from 26 runners, five further places, +61.50, A/E 2.48, IV 3.4).

Equiano Springs has been a big part of that success. His career record at Newcastle is 11661221, but when Mullen has steered that form string improves to 11221 (+17.oo).

Ostensibly drawn close to the little pace there is within the high numbers, Messrs. Tate, Mullen and Springs have an excellent chance of adding a fifth course win, and look over-priced to do that...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Equiano Springs @ 13/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy at 5.30pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th September 2019

Thursday's pick was...

3.40 Pontefract : Gale Force Maya @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Raced wide in touch, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, led approaching final furlong, headed towards finish : the second time in as many days that the winner, Lady of Aran, has done us over after her withdrawal yesterday cost us a 40% reduction in winnings!)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Raashdy @ 4/1

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding has been placed in each of his last three outings (albeit all over hurdles), winning once and now returns to the All-Weather, where he has run the majority of his races to date, winning 6 of 26 (23.1% SR) for profits of 36.25pts (+139.4% ROI), from which he is...

  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 25.7pts (+122.3%) in handicaps
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 25.7pts (+122.3%) at trips of 1m2f and beyond
  • 4/16 (25%) for 26.7pts (+166.8%) at Class 6
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.33pts (+59.2%) at odds of 9/2 and shorter
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 8.33pts (+138.8%) at odds shorter than 7/2 (where I think we'll be today)
  • 3/20 (15%) for 2.52pts (+12.6%) on Tapeta
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 27pts (+207.4%) with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 40.6pts (+368.6%) wearing no headgear
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 46.9pts (+938%) after 10 or fewer days rest.

He is trained by Sam England, who is 7 from 21 (33.3% SR) for 35.9pts (+170.5% ROI) since the start of 2016 when her only runner at a track was a handicapper sent off at odds of 5/1 and shorter...

...whilst in that same 2016-19 time frame, her handicappers sent off at Evens to 7/1, 6 to 14 days after a top 3 finish are 13/37 (35.1%) for 20.7pts (+56%), including...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.58pts (+135.8%) beaten by a neck to 2 lengths LTO
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 17.25pts (+191.7%) were 3rd LTO
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.6pts (+280%) on the all-weather...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 4/1 as was available from Betfair, Betfred, Hills, Paddy Power & Totesport (all non-BOG until the morning) at 6.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th June 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.10 Ffos Las : Gone Platinum @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Held up in rear, headway off last bend, went 2nd after 2 out, soon switched right, hanging left flat, no impression on winner, who was originally a very short priced fav!)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tammooz @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m4½f on Tapeta worth £3817 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, every afternoon prior to putting a selection up, I create a shortlist of possibles based on various reports and/or databases. One place I derive the possibles from is the Geegeez Report Suite. I have my own parameters set within the Report Angles Settings section and each day it generates a daily Angles Report and this horse was flagged up several times on that report.

On my "shortlist" for this race, this horse had the following abbreviations next to it... JF30 / TF14 / TF30 / TJ365 / TJC5 and here's how they led me to backing Tammooz...

JF30 : Jockey Andrea Atzeni is 12 from 58 (20.7% SR) for 37.4pts (+64.5% ROI) over the last 30 days, from which he is 6/31 (19.4%) for 3.8pts (+12.3%) for trainer Roger Varian.

TF14 : Roger Varian's horses have won 11 of 40 (27.5% SR) for 6.12pts (+15.3% ROI) over the last 14 days, including 10 from 19 (52.6%) for 18.5pts (+97.4%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter.

TF30 : Whilst over the last 30 days, his runners are 15/70 (21.4% SR) for 2.75pts (+3.93% ROI), including 13 from 38 (34.2%) for 13.67pts (+36%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter.

This shows that the first half of the last month was decent enough, but the yard's form has improved further over the last two weeks.

TJ365 : Over the last year, the Atzeni/Varian combination has 53 winners from 226 (23.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 60.7pts (+26.9% ROI), from which...

  • 18/53 (34%) for 23.2pts (+43.7%) on the A/W
  • 20/51 (39.2%) for 20.4pts (+40%) at Class 5
  • and 13/29 (44.8%) for 19pts (+65.3%) at Class 5 on the A/W

And finally TJC5 : The trainer/jockey combo are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 15.9pts (+93.6% ROI) on the A/W here at Newcastle over the last 5 years (last three years here, of course, for obvious reasons) with Andrea riding a third of all Roger's winners on this track from less than 19% of hos runners and this 7/17 stat includes...

  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 16.2pts (+147.3%) with 3 yr olds
  • 4/8 (50%) for 9.18pts (+14.7%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 9.36pts (+468%) over this 1m4½f course and distance (both were 3 yr olds at Class 5!) 

The keener-eyed amongst will no doubt have noticed that most of the above would also point to Daring Venture (currently 5/2 BOG in the 1.50 race) and I wouldn't necessarily dissuade you from backing that one...

...but my preference is... a 1pt win bet on Tammooz @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, Betway, BetVictor & Hills at 7.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th April 2019

Monday's pick was...

7.30 Windsor : Persian Sun @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 11/2 (tracked leader, pushed along to challenge 3f out, ridden into narrow lead over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, weakened final 100 yards)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.40 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blindingly @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on standard ground worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

There is no shortage of ins to today's stat selection. But the one we'll major on is the trainer/jockey combination. Ben Haslam is one of those trainers who was going nowhere fast for a number of years before, for one reason or another, picking up the thread. These days he's a handler to keep on side, and here's why:

TJ Combo: Haslam's combination with Andrew 'Midge' Mullen has been electric in the past year. Here at Newcastle, they've combined 33 times during those 12 months, and bagged 11 winners (33%, +58.58, A/E 2.02)

1st Handicap Start: When running a horse in a handicap for the first time in the past two years, Haslam is 2/19 (6 places) for +26.00 (A/E 1.28). One of the two winners was here.

Overall Course form: Overall that the track, Haslam has had 15 winners from 84 starters (17.86, +94.08, A/E 1.46)

That's enough to give us...

... a 1pt win bet on Blindingly @ 5/1 BOG which was available with betfair and Paddy at 8.30pm on Monday (9/2 widely available). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 1st April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.05 Uttoxeter : Zamparelli @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 13/8 (Held up in rear, mistake 9th, some headway on outside before 14th, weakened 4 out)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Busy Street 9/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap  for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £15562 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding has raced 11 times in the past year and hasn't failed to finish in the first four home, winning three times, showing consistently good form. To date he is 1222441321 on the All-Weather and this includes...

  • 1321 at 2 miles and beyond
  • 2321 after a break of less than 25 days
  • a win and a runner-up finish from two Class 2 outings
  • 1 from 1 here at Newcastle (over C&D)
  • 1 from 1 under today's jockey Mark Crehan...

...who is hardly a household name, but has made a good start to life in the saddle and has (so far) been profitable to follow! To date he has 13 wins from 107 rides (12.2% SR), which is a decent start and although the profits of 142pts (+132.7% ROI) are swollen by a big-odds winner, these are still good figures.

I'd never advocate blindly backing a jockey and I'm more interested in his relationship with trainer Mick Appleby, because of Mark's 13/107 record, he's actually 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 56.4pts (+131.3% ROI) for Mick Appleby and those excellent figures include...

  • 11/36 (30.6%) for 63.4pts (+176.1%) on male horses
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 22.7pts (+78.4%) on those sent off shorter than 8/1
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 59.4pts (+247.4%) on those returning from a break of 11-31 days
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 21.4pts (+101.7%) from those with a top 3 finish LTO
  • and 6/35 (17.1%) for 37.7pts (+107.6%) when Mark has claimed a 7lb allowance

...whilst Crehan + Appleby + sub-8/1 males + 11-31 dslr + top 3 LTO = 6/10 (60% SR) for 21.83pts (+218.3% ROI), including 4 from 8 (50%) for 13.61pts (+170.2%) whe Mark claims 7lbs...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Busy Street 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 7.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.35 Chepstow : Treasure Dillon @ 4/1 BOG WON at 15/8 (Chased leaders, went 2nd 4th, led narrowly before 3 out, clear next, won easily easing down)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Porrima 17/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly has finished 112 in her three runs since returning from a 20-week break with all three runs coming here at Newcastle under today's jockey Andrew Mullen and she'd quite likely have won all three but for blowing the start last time out.

To date, she has 3 wins and 2 places from 8 runs on the All-Weather, including of relevance today...

  • 2 & 2 from 6 here at Newcastle
  • 2 & 2 from 6 on the straight
  • 3 & 2 from 5 in Jan-March
  • 2 & 1 from 5 in this grade
  • 2 & 2 from 4 under Andrew Mullen
  • 2 & 1 from 4 within 30 days of her last run
  • 2 & 1 from 3 as a 4yr old
  • 2 & 1 from 3 at odds of 4/1 and shorter (which now looks likely!)
  • and 2 & 1 from 3 on std to slow tracks

Her trainer Ben Haslam is 17 from 87 (19.5% SR) for 128.3pts (+147.5% ROI) in A/W hcps on this track since the start of 2017 and these produce a host of profitable angles, including 8 winners from 27 (29.6%) for 23.7pts (+87.9%) at Class 5, but it's the trainer's record with today's jockey that I want to focus on today, as...

...Mullen + Haslam = 8/28 (28.6% SR) for 72.5pts (+259.1% ROI) over the last 12 months, with the following of note here...

  • on the A/W : 7/27 (25.9%) for 52.6pts (+194.8%)
  • on tapeta : 7/26 (26.9%) for 53.6pts (+206.1%)
  • at Newcastle : 7/24 (29.2%) for 55.6pts (+231.6%)
  • in handicaps : 8/23 (34.8%) for 77.5pts (+337.1%)
  • odds below 5/1 : 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.3pts (+86.8%)
  • Class 5 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 5.55pts (+69.3%)
  • and females are 3/7 (42.9%) for 52.2pts (+745.1%)

It's fairly obvious that the top 4 items of that list are where we should focus, because Mullen + Haslam + Newcastle Tapeta hcps = 7/20 (35% SR) for 59.6pts (+298% ROI), from which...

  • sub-5/1 = 5/11 (45.5%) for 13.3pts (+120.8%)
  • females = 3/7 (42.9%) for 52.2pts (+745.1%)
  • Class 5 = 3/5 (60%) for 8.55pts (+171%)
  • Class 5 & sub-5/1 = 3/5 (60%) for 8.55pts (+171%)
  • sub-5/1 females = 1/2 (50%) for 1.85pts (+92.5%)

...and Class 5 females sent off shorter than 5/1 are also 1 from 2 for 1.85pts and just happen to be Porrima's last two outings...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Porrima 17/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfred & Totesport at 5.50pm on Thursday, whilst Skybet were another half point bigger! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st March 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

3.20 Musselburgh : Sky Khan @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Held up in close 3rd, pushed along after 4 out, ridden before 2 out, kept on to press for 2nd run-in, no chance with winner)

Friday's pick runs in the...

8.00 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star Cracker 6/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 7, 4yo+, A/W Handicap over 5f on tapeta, worth £2814 to the winner...

Why?

After February fizzled out somewhat, I'm looking for a good start to March via this 7 yr old gelding, a former C&D winner now running off a mark 2lbs lower than his last win which was incidentally here over C&D back in November. Allied to the easing of his mark is a drop in class and this must surely represent the best recent chance he has had of winning and becoming the latest course winner for trainer Jim Goldie...

...whose runners are 25/199 (12.6% SR) for 99.3pts (+49.9% ROI) on the Tapeta here at Gosforth Park in the last two years, including of note/relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 25/189 (13.2%) for 109.3pts (+57.8%)
  • in races worth less than £8,000 : 24/179 (13.4%) for 114.2pts (+63.8%)
  • 1 to 8 weeks since last run : 25/173 (14.5%) for 125.2pts (+72.4%)
  • males : 18/154 (11.7%) for 84.1pts (+54.6%)
  • at 5/1 or shorter : 18/59 (30.5%) for 17.7pts (+30.1%)
  • over this 5f C&D : 10/51 (19.6%) for 10.7pts (+21%)
  • 7/8 yr olds : 5/42 (11.9%) for 122.5pts (+291.6%)
  • OR 46-49 : 4/25 916%) for 14.83pts (+59.3%)

...and if we focus on the first five subsets above, we get... male handicappers priced at 5/1 and shorter competing for less than £8,000 after a break of 1 to 8 weeks winning 12 of 40 (30% SR) for 9.94pts (+24.9% ROI), including Primos Comet who won here over this 5f C&D last night under today's jockey Ali Rawlinson!

...which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Star Cracker 6/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power respectively at 5.35pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!