Tag Archives: Newbury racecourse

Stat of the Day, 28th December 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.10 Wolverhampton : Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 7/2 (Went right start, soon tracked leader, led narrowly over 1f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, no extra)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m7f on soft ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding is 4 from 9 so far and got off the mark (at just the second time of asking) over fences last time out when winning by a mere 21 lengths eighteen days ago. That was over 2m4f on heavy ground at Uttoxeter and whilst this is 3f further for his handicap debut, the ground will ride slightly easier today, plus he has stayed 3m over hurdles on soft ground, whilst Richard Johnson retains the ride today.

Our race card icons (C5) suggest that both the aforementioned jockey and the trainer, Philip Hobbs have decent records on this track, so I'll take that as read and whilst keeping today's explanation fairly simple, I'll explore two other angles briefly for you.

Firstly, people of a certain age might remember "...it's Friday, it's five to five, it's Crackerjack...". Well along those lines: "...it's Saturday, it's a handicap and it's Hobbs & Johnson!"

Basically, this trainer/jockey combo are 46 from 288 (16% SR) for 16.4pts (+5.7% ROI) backed blindly in handicaps on Saturdays over the last six years. A good strike rate that's blindly profitable is always a decent starting point for a way in and of interest from those 288 runners, we have...

  • 44/242 (18.2%) for 27.1pts (+11.2%) at odds of Evens to 10/1
  • 30/170 (17.7%) for 32.3pts (+19%) over fences
  • 24/105 (22.9%) for 58.4pts (+55.6%) from November to January
  • and 15/68 (22.1%) for 12.7pts (+18.6%) at Class 3...

...whilst chasers sent off at Evens to 10/1 during November to January are 17/53 (32.1% SR) for 66.2pts (+124.9% ROI), including 5/14 935.7%) for 19.6pts (+139.8%) at Class 3.

Secondly, as our pick is making a handicap bow, it's worth noting that Philip Hobbs is having a good year with such runners, as his handicap debutants are 8 from 20 (40% SR) for 14.56pts (+72.8% ROI) in 2019 and these include...

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 8.6pts (+61.5%) from LTO winners
  • 5/10 (50%) for 12.4pts (+124%) in fields of 10-13 runners
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 16.5pts (+235.5%) from 6 yr olds
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.8pts (+42.1%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle...

...whilst 6 yr old LTO winners in fields of 10-13 runners are 2/3 (66.6% SR) for 6.3pts (+210% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 4.50pm on Friday, although I'm on with Hills (non-BOG until raceday) at 4/1. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th October 2019

Thursday's pick was...

8.15 Wolverhampton : Roving Mission @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Pressed leader, led over 5f out, headed over 1f out, kept on well under pressure)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady Adelaide @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Fillies' Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on soft ground worth £5208 to the winner...

Why?...

Roger Charlton is having a fine end to the season, though his form at his local Berkshire track is permanently top drawer. Let's start with the Beckhampton handler's course form.

In the last five years he's won 20 races at Newbury, from 121 starters (17%, +10.25, A/E 1.22). Two-fifths of those winners came in the last year, from a third of the runners (8/39 to be exact, 21%, +6.63, A/E 1.61).

Recent form is fair flying for Charlton also: 6 from 17 (and a shortie yet to run tonight), +17.6, A/E 1.79 in the past fortnight; and similar numbers (10/32, +17.51, A/E 1.38) for the past month. Those are roughly one-in-three strike rates through the month.

Jockey Jason Watson is also in excellent form with an Impact Value of 2.06, meaning he's riding more than twice the average number of jockey winners just now. He's making a profit for those mythical blind backers, too: +31.88 in the last two weeks at a circa 20% win rate.

Lady Adelaide was second at this track on the easy side of good on her career debut. Her sire, Australia, is 16/72 with progeny on soft or heavy ground in the past year (22%, A/E 1.28) and she looks likely to relish conditions.

All of which gives us...

...a 1pt win bet on Lady Adelaide @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by five firms at 5.40pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.50 Newcastle : Raashdy @ 4/1 6th at 5/1 (Mid-division, driven and outpaced on outside 3f out, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace, never able to challenge)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Song Of The Isles @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good ground worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly is in decent enough form right now, having two wins and a place from her last five starts, including a very comfortable three length success over this trip at Salisbury four weeks ago.

Today's jockey, 7lb claimer Ellie MacKenzie has already ridden five winners from sixteen (31.25% SR) rides for trainer Heather Main generating profits of 84.9pts (+530.7% ROI) and whilst it's clear that the P/L and ROI are skewed by some big-priced winners, the strike rate rate is excellent and includes...

  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 59.7pts (+746.4%) on the Flat
  • 3/6 (50%) for 65.25pts (+1087.5%) during August-November
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 29.2pts (+730%) at Class 4

...once again the above caveat re: high prices applies....

It's also around the later stages of the season that Heather Main does well with her lower grade runners, as over the last four (including this one) Flat seasons, her Class 4 to 6 handicappers are 11/59 (18.6% SR) for 106.6pts (+180.6% ROI) during July to September, including of note today...

  • 10/52 (19.2%) for 79.8pts (+61.8%) at 6-60 days since their last run
  • 8/37 (21.6%) for 16.2pts (+43.9%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 63.8pts (+219.9%) with female runners
  • 7/25 (28%) for 71pts (+284%) with 3 yr olds
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 37.1pts (+206.1%) at 7/7.5 furlongs
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 17.2pts (+122.7%) here at Newbury
  • 3/21 (14.3%) for 42.9pts (+204.4%) at Class 4
  • and 3/14 (21.4%) for 51.6pts (+368.2%) in 2019...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Song Of The Isles @ 7/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor, Unibet, Paddy Power & Betfair (last two are non-BOG until the morning) at 6.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th August 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.10 Lingfield : Visionara @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Pressed leader, led 2f out, ridden over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, driven out to win by a length and three quarters)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlemaine @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Nursery for 2yo over 5f on Good To Soft ground worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 2 yr old colt has won two (his first & his last) of his four starts to date, with his two defeats coming in far better (C2 & listed) big-field contests. He did, however win LTO when making his handicap/nursery debut at Sandown 16 days ago, when he also wore the blinkers for the first time in public.

His trainer Paul Cole has got his horses going well enough without ripping up any trees, but 2 winners and 2 placers from 7 over the last week is a decent enough return and whilst he doesn't send many here to Newbury, once again he does well enough without reaching superstar status.

In fact over the last four seasons, Paul has only had 38 runners at this track, but 6 winners (15.8% SR) and 49.5pts (+130.2% ROI) is a good return for both him and his followers. Of those 38 runners and of relevance today...

  • 4/21 (19.1%) for 35.8pts (+170.6%) at Class 4
  • 4/16 (25%) for 25.8pts (+161.1%) at 12/1 and shorter
  • 4/10 (40%) for 50.8pts (+508%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 3/15 (20%) for 37pts (+246.9%) with 2 yr olds
  • 2/8 (25%) for 22.7pts (+283.3%) on Good to Soft
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 18.9pts (+630%) with David Probert in the saddle

...and a composite from the above? OK, 2/3 yr olds  + Classes 3-5 + 16/1 max SP = 5/10 (50% SR) for 55.58pts (+555.8% ROI) including 2 yr olds at 2/3 (66.6%) for 27.15pts (+905%).

Meanwhile, during that same last four seasons time frame, Paul Cole's LTO winners are 12 from 55 (21.8% SR) for 36.1pts (+65.6% ROI) when sent off at 2/1 or bigger in handicaps, including of note today...

  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 35.5pts (+77.2%) from male runners
  • 10/37 (27%) for 46.7pts (+126.3%) at trips of 5-8 furlongs
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 38.6pts (+183.9%) from August to November
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 28pts (+127.3%) at Class 4
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 15.05pts (+125.4%) in fields of 7-8 runners
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 11.35pts (+567.5%) with 2 yr olds

...from which, you could consider males at 5-8 furlongs during August to November for 6 from 12 (50% SR) and 34.3pts (+285.5% ROI) profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Charlemaine @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.00pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th August 2019

Monday's pick was...

7.45 Carlisle : Redarna @ 11/4 BOG  WON at 3/1 (Led, headed over 6f out, came stand side over 2f out, led approaching final furlong, ridden out)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.55 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Space Ace @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, Flat Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Good ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 2 yr old filly is making her handicap/nursery debut after 3 placed efforts (231) in Novice races and after winning a big-field (15 ran) contest last time out 13 days ago, she comes here with a 1/1 record over this 7f trip and she's also 1/1 under today's jockey Adam McNamara.

Adam is 5/26 (19.2% SR) over the last 30 days and 3/15 (20%) over the past fortnight, so he's riding well enough, whilst trainer Archie Watson is 19/99 (19.2%), 11/47 (25.4%) and 6/25 (24%) over the least 30/14/7 days respectively. Unsurprisingly their paths have crossed and together as a team, they are 6 from 19 (31.6% SR) for 18.52pts (+97.5% ROI) with the following angles at play today...

  • 6/12 (50%) for 25.52pts (+212.7%) over trips of 6-7.5 furlongs
  • 6/12 (50%) for 25.52pts (+212.7%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 18.87pts (+117.9%) in July/August
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 18.93pts (+118.3%) on the Flat
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 9.52pts (+119%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 21.51pts (+195.5%) from female runners
  • 3/10 (30%) for 2.51pts (+25.1%) in handicaps
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 0.71pts (+7.86%) at Class 5
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.01pts (+127.4%) with 2 yr olds
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 3.29pts (+82.3%) from LTO winners...

...whilst those running in July/August on the Flat at odds of 5/1 and shorter over trips of 6-7 furlongs are 3/4 (75% SR) for 8.27pts (+206.8% ROI) after a top 3 finish LTO with females winning 2 of 2 (100%) for 7.91pts (+395.5%).

Archie Watson's name crops up quite often in my saved micro systems for 2 yr old runners and here are three of them that apply today...

1. During July-October over trips of 5-7f, those with a run in the previous 60 days are 35/97 (36.1% SR) for 54pts (+55.7% ROI) at odds of Evens to 15/2.

2. In the same July-October time frame at the same Evs to 15/2 odds parameters, those with 5 or fewer previous runs who are being ridden by a jockey not making a claim are 29/86 (33.7% SR) for 37.6pts (+43.8% ROI) after running in a non-hcp race LTO, including 9/19 (47.4%) for 32.3pts (+169.8%) in Nurseries.

3. And his 2yr old handicap debutants are 12/26 (46.2% SR) for 35.6pts (+136.9% ROI) at odds of 7/1 and shorter, including 10/19 (52.6%) for 34.9pts (+183.6%) on the Flat, 5/11 (45.5%) for 20pts (+181.8%) at Class 5 and 4/8 (50%) for 17.06pts (+213.3%) in Class 5 Flat contests...

...all steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Space Ace @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 7.15pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st December 2018

Friday's Pick was...

12.45 Newbury : Kupatana @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Led in start, led until 3rd (water), chased winner until 9th, outpaced before next, ridden and went 3rd 3 out, left remote 2nd at the last)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 15-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £25992 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was useful on the Flat at Class 2 and better, winning over 2 miles at Ascot this summer and has 2 wins and a place from 4 efforts over hurdles, including winning over 2m5.5f at Cheltenham when last seen a fortnight ago.

Trainer Ian Williams' handicap hurdlers are 25 from 113 (22.1% SR) for 97.1pts (+85.9% ROI) over trips of 2m4f to 2m6f since the start of 2015 and these include of relevance today...

  • males at 21/91 (23.1%) for 104.2pts (+114.6%)
  • those last seen 6-45 days ago are 20/75 (26.7%) for 59.8pts (+79.7%)
  • those sent off shorter than 5/1 are 18/46 (39.1%) for 23.9pts (+52%)
  • those ridden by Tom O'Brien are 6/25 924%) for 7.55pts (+30.2%)
  • LTO winners are 8/22 (36.4%) for 4.57pts (+20.8%)
  • and at Class 2 : 4/18 (22.2%) for 58.4pts (+324.5%)

...and from the above : sub-5/1 males at 6-45 dslr = 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) for 13pts (+46.4% ROI)...

It would be remiss of me to point out that we're expecting soft ground, but confidence is taken from the fact that since the start of 2012, Ian's soft ground NH handicappers are 19/58 (32.8% SR) for 29.8pts (+51.4% ROI) at odds of 5/4 to 6/1.

And finally, his LTO winners sent back out after a rest of less than three weeks are 49 from 160 (30.6% SR) for 55.2pts (+34.5% ROI) in handicap contests since the start of 2014...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Friday evening, whilst Ladbrokes were offering an extras half point on top. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th November 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

5.00 Kempton : Livvy's Dream @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, effort over 1f out, never looked liked getting on terms) - seemed a strange ride to me.

Friday's pick runs in the...

12.45 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kupatana @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good To Soft ground worth £12762 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 5yr old mare who was a winner over 3 miles in her sole point to point run ahead of two wins and a place from four efforts over hurdles. She then had the thick end of 6 months (178 days to be precise) off the track, before returning to action 18 days ago at Kempton.

That Kempton race was her first crack at the larger obstacles and she landed a 2m2½f Novices Handicap Chase by a comfortable 5 lengths despite giving plenty of weight away to her rivals. There's more to come from this one and I like her chances at a track where her yard have done well of late.

In fact, Nicky Henderson's horses are 14 from 47 (29.8% SR) for 24.4pts (+52% ROI) here at Newbury over the last 12 months and in respect of today's pick, those 47 runners are...

  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 24.4pts (+56.7%) on Good to Soft / Soft
  • 12/30 (40%) for 38.7pts (+129%) when sent off in the Evens to 7/1 range
  • 10/30 (33.3%) for 33pts (+110%) in the November-January first half of the NH season
  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 10.2pts (+39.3%) over this 16.5f Newbury trip
  • 11/21 (52.4%) for 35.3pts (+167.9%) with today's jockey, Nico de Boinville, in the saddle
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 14.5pts (+85.4%) from his 5 yr olds
  • and 3 from 10 (30%) for 2.84pts (+28.4%) at Class 3

...whilst Nico de Boinville has 4 wins and a place from 5 rides over this trip at Evens to 7/1 on Good to Soft/Soft in November to January, producing 14.89pts profit at an ROI of some 297.9%.

Also of note here today, Nicky Henderson's handicap chasers who were winners of a handicap chase LTO 16 to 25 days earlier are 5 from 7 (71.4% SR) for 23.09pts (+329.9% ROI) since the start of 2013.

And more generally, since the start of 2014, UK Class 1 to 4 handicap chasers who have rested for less than three weeks after winning a handicap chase LTO are 118/408 (28.9% SR) for 80.7pts (+19.8% ROI), from which those who won a novice handicap chase LTO are 103/342 (30.1%) for 70.7pts (+20.7%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kupatana @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Bet365, 10Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes & SportPesa at 5.25pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.45 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2018

Monday's Pick was...

3.50 Newton Abbot : Sword of Fate @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 6/4 (Led, driven and headed before 2 out, weakened between last 2)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.55 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Classy 9/2 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 5 Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 2 yr old filly was a winner last time out just 15 days ago, staying on well and doing all her best work in the closing stages of a Class 4 contest over 6f, suggesting that an extra furlong might well suit her, whilst a drop in class should also help.

Tom Queally retains the ride from that win and the hood she wore for the first time that day is redeployed.

She had Lively Lydia a length and a half back in third place that day, but the latter reappeared yesterday at Windsor to make all in a 5 length victory, so that's another positive, as is the general recent good form of her yard, as Richard Spencer's horses are 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 15pts (+44.1% ROI) over the last 30 days, including...

  • on the Flat : 8/27 (27.6%) for 17.94pts (+61.9%)
  • over 5 to 7 furlongs : 7/27 (25.9%) for 17.06pts (+63.2%)
  • 2 yr olds are 6/21 (28.6%) for 20.78pts (+98.9%)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 8/16 (50%) for 14.89pts (+93%)
  • with Tom Q in the saddle : 4/15 (26.7%) for 0.6pts (+4%)
  • females are 4/13 (30.8%) for 17.65pts (+135.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/10 (50%) for 20.25pts (+202.5%)
  • and over 7f : 3/10 (30%) for 2.26pts (+22.6%)

and whilst the Richard Spencer / Tom Queally angle has only been marginally profitable over the last month, the strike rate of 26.7% is both (a) good and (b) not a real surprise to me as since the start of this year the partnership has 8 winners from 36 (22.2% SR) for a more palatable/satisfactory 16.95pts profit at an ROI of 47.1% and these 36 runners include...

  • on the Flat : 6/25 (24%) for 23.43pts (+93.7%)
  • at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 8/24 (33.3%) for 28.95pts (+120.6%)
  • 2 yr olds are 6/24 (25%) for 20.46pts (+85.2%)
  • on good to firm ground : 4/18 (22.2%) for 17.26pts (+95.9%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/12 (25%) for 6.4pts (+53.3%)
  • with horses stepping up in trip : 2/10 (20%) for 6.35pts (+63.5%)
  • and those dropping down a grade are 2/7 (28.6%) for 6.16pts (+88%)

...whilst 2 yr olds on the Flat at odds of 10/1 and shorter are 4 from 11 (36.4% SR) for 28.93pts (+263% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Stay Classy 9/2 BOGa price available from half a dozen firms at 5.10pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

4.20 Leicester : Delft Dancer @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Dwelt in rear, headway over 2f out, tracked leaders over 1f out, ridden and stayed on to go 2nd towards finish )

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.05 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mistress Quickly 7/1 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 2, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m5½f on Good To Firm ground worth £25876 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old was a winner over course and distance the last (and only previous) time she came to this venue, making her just one of two course winners in this field and the only one to have won at today's trip and of course by default, the only previous course and distance winner!

She hails from an in-form yard, as Ralph Beckett's charges have won 13 of 60 (21.5% SR) for 12.44pts (+20.7% ROI) over the last 30 days and 5 from 24 (20.8% SR) for 14.15pts (+58.9% ROI) in the last fortnight.

Moreover, in handicaps here at Newbury since the start of 2010, Ralph's runners are 12 from 76 (15.8% SR) for 30.4pts (+40% ROI) and these include...

  • at trips of 1m to 1m6f : 11/44 (25%) for 43.04pts (+97.8%)
  • at odds of 3/1 to 11/1 (fairly safe to assume that's where we'll be today) : 11/43 (25.6%) for 44.04pts (+102.4%)
  • after a break of 16-25 days : 4/16 (25%) for 17.32pts (+108.25%)
  • and at Class 2 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 7.72pts (+55.1%)

...and from the above, over 1m to 1m6f at 3/1 to 11/1 = 11/30 (36.7% SR) for 57.04pts (+190.1% ROI), from which...

  • after 16-25 days since last run : 4/8 (50%) for 25.32pts (+316.5%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/6 (50%) for 15.72pts (+261.9%)
  • and whilst only one previous runner raced at Class 2, 16-25 days after their last run, it was a 9/1 winner!

Oisin Murphy is in the saddle today and I do like to see him up on the Beckett horses, as to date he is 39/201 (19.4% SR) for 68.6pts (+34.1% ROI) on them. Handicaps are my preferred medium for betting and in this sphere, the trainer/jockey combo are 21 from 81 (25.9% SR) for 79.8pts (+98.5% ROI), so well worth following!

And, of these 81 'cappers, those racing over 1m2f and beyond are 14/39 (35.9%) for 90pts (+230.8%) and from those longer distance runners, the ones sent off at 15/2 and shorter are 11 from 26 (42.3%) for 24.6pts (+94.6%).

At today's odds, some other "tipsters" might be advising an E/W bet, but I'm not a massive fan of that approach (tempts fate and now expects a placer 😉 )...

...so, the advice today is...a 1pt win bet on Mistress Quickly 7/1 BOGa price available from Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

5.15 Ludlow : Flashing Glance @ 5/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Made all, set good pace, joined and not fluent 2 out, ridden clear run-in to win by three lengths)

Our bid for a hat-trick goes in Friday's...

2.30 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kincora Fort @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 2m6.5f handicap chase (5yo+) on soft ground worth £7,153 to the winner...

Why?

An in-form 9 yr old gelding who has won three of his last six outings and since being switched to the larger obstacles three starts ago, has a record reading 211. Both of his chasing victories have come on soft ground and whilst partnered by today's jockey Wayne Hutchinson, 51 and 29 days ago respectively.

His trainer Noel Williams doesn't send many runners on the short 35-mile round trip from his Oxfordshire base here to Newbury (in fact he only has this one runner today), but his record at the track stands at 3 winners from 9 (33.3% SR) for 22.01pts (+244.5% ROI) profit, so there must be something else keeping him away!

Of the nine that have come here, handicappers are 3/5 (60%) for 26.01pts (+520.2%) and those five are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 24.28pts (+809.3%) on soft ground.

It's also worth noting that over the last two years, Noel's LTO winners have won 4 of 16 (25% SR) for 5.61pts (+35.1% ROI), whilst over the last 18 months, his chasers have won 4 of 15 (26.7% SR) for 6.74pts (+44.9% ROI), from which...

  • at Class 3 : 2/6 (33.3%) for 7.6pts (+126.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.14pts (+35.6%)
  • under Wayne Hutchinson : 3/5 (60%) for 5.5pts (+110%)
  • and at odds of 4/1 and shorter : also 3/5 (60%) for 5.5pts (+110%)

...and this fairly simple approach gives us...a 1pt win bet on Kincora Fort @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes & SkyBet at 5.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!