Tag Archives: Neil King

Stat of the Day, 7th March 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.20 Catterick : Same Circus @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Raced on inside, led 1st until headed briefly before 5th, headed before 8th, dropped to last and outpaced next, rallied into modest 3rd on long run before 2 out, went 2nd between last 2, no chance with winner)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Myplaceatmidnight 11/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m5½f on Good to Soft ground, worth £6498 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a very consistent, if lightly raced 7 yr old gelding by Midnight Legend (I won't bang on about ML hurdlers today, you'll be glad to hear!), who has finished in the first four home in all eight starts, winning twice. His last three runs have all been over his course and distance, finishing 413 and was only beaten by three lengths LTO after making a momentum-losing mistake at the last hurdle.

Bryony Frost is back on board today and she's 1 from 1 on him after winning here over C&D two starts ago.

This horse is trainer Neil King's only runner on the card and his hurdlers are running really well right now, finishing 2333311741 in the last 14 days with Bryony's own record on those horses reading 2331741 and she does tend to ride this track well, having scored 8 times from 31 attempts (25.8% SR) generating 24.3pts profit at an ROI of 78.4% since the start of 2017 and these include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 7/25 (28%) for 28.8pts (+115.1%)
  • over hurdles : 5/17 (29.4%) for 15.2pts (+89.5%)
  • in hcp hurdles : 4/14 (28.6%) for 16.7pts (+119.1%)
  • at Class 3 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 6.4pts (+71.4%)
  • in C3 hcp hrds : 3/6 (50%) for 5.58pts (+93%)
  • and in Feb/March : 3/4 (75%) for 20.72pts (+518%)

With regards to the horse's recent form...in UK handicap hurdle races since the start of 2013, runners who won two starts ago and then placed 2nd or 3rd LTO less than three weeks ago are 47/170 (27.7% SR) for 79.6pts (+46.9% ROI), with the following of interest/note today...

  • 5-8 yr olds are 39/131 (29.8%) for 90.7pts (+69.2%)
  • those beaten by 4 lengths or less LTO are 30/94 (31.9%) for 42.2pts (+44.9%)
  • those last seen 16-20 days earlier are 17/74 (23%) for 45.5pts (+61.5%)
  • 5-8 yo's within 4 lengths of winner LTO are 24/72 (33.3%) for 42.9pts (+59.6%)
  • those with a previous C&D win are 7/12 (58.3%) for 17.5pts (+146%)
  • and those trained by Neil King are 3/6 (50%) for 8.17pts (+136.2%)

And as I'm not going to go on about hurdlers sired by the mighty Midnight Legend this time, my final snippets of data relate to trainer Neil King, as since the start of 2014 when his only runner at a track was a hurdler, that runner has won 35 of 230 (15.2% SR) for profits of 144.7pts (+63.2% ROI) and these include...

  • males at 33/193 (17.1%) for 169.1pts (+88.1%)
  • Class 2-4 : 30/177 (16.9%) for 172.5pts (+97.4%)
  • in handicaps : 23/143 (16.1%) for 55.2pts (+38.9%)
  • prize money of £4k-£8k : 15/83 (18.1%) for 44pts (+53.1%)
  • 50-80 miles away from the yard : 16/59 (27.1%) for 77.8pts (+131.8%)
  • March/April : 9/41 (22%) for 43.33pts (+105.7%)
  • Bryony Frost : 4/19 (21.1%) for 7.92pts (+41.7%)
  • and previous C&D winners are 4/13 (30.8%) for 9.16pts (+70.5%)

...whilst Class 2-4, male handicap hurdlers competing for £4k to £8k are 12/51 (23.5% SR) for 56.8pts (+111.4% ROI), with those making only a short 50-80 mile journey from home winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) for 46pts (+287.6%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Myplaceatmidnight 11/2 BOG which was available from Bet365 & Ladbrokes at 4.55pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2017

Monday's Result :

4.40 Bath : Air of York @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 : In touch, headway on outer over 1f out, ridden to lead towards finish...

Tuesday's selection goes in the...

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Marienstar @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

A 6yr old mare who was third last out over 2m3f just seven days ago, now steps up in trip by 5 furlongs to become just the 20th runner sent to Southwell by trainer Neil King since the start of 2014, but I'm sure it's not results keeping him away, as the previous ones are 4/19 (21% SR) for 11.88pts (+62.5% ROI) profit, including...

  • handicappers @ 3/13 (23.1%) for 15.49pts (+119.1%)
  • Class 4 @ 3/13 (23.1%) for 8.22pts (+63.2%)
  • hurdlers @ 3/12 (25%) for 13.88pts (+115.6%)
  • hcp hurdlers @ 2/7 (28.6%) for 16.49pts (+235.6%)
  • and 6 yr olds @ 2/7 (28.6%) for 9.22pts (+131.7%)

Now, the large step up in trip might worry some of you, but to put your mind at rest, our excellent daily trainer snippets report informs me (and you, of course!) that over the last two years, Neil King's NH handicappers asked to step up in trip by 20% or more from their last run have won 4 and placed a further 3 times from 17 for win/place strike rates of 23.5% & 41.2% respectively, with a win only bet on each them producing 20.5pts at Industry SP at an ROI of 120.6%.

And finally, we have the issue of her being turned around quickly, but fear not, as...2015-17 / hcp hurdles / aged 5-9 / priced at 13-2 and shorter / ran at least twice in last three months / last ran 1-7 days ago = 200/638 (31.4% SR) for 107.9pts (+16.9% ROI) profit at level stakes. And of those 638...

  • those running on good ground are 93/283 (32.9%) for 76.8pts (+27.2%)
  • females are 51/139 (36.7%) for 79pts (+56.8%)
  • and females running on good ground are 30/61 (49.2%) for 78.1pts (+128%) : 6/10 for 14.72pts this year already!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Marienstar @ 11/2 BOG, which was offered by Betfair Sports, SkyBet, Sunbets & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2014

I don't think Thorpe Bay ran too badly at Southwell on Tuesday afternoon and had he been kept a little closer to the action off the final bend, he might well have defied a market drift out from 5/2 to an SP of 9/2.

He had too many horses in front of him and was too far off the pace for my liking around the bend and as a result had to go wide to get around the traffic ahead. Once on the straight he powered towards the leaders and was staying on well, but a third placed finish and beaten by a length and three quarters was the best he/we could manage on the day.

And so on to Wednesday and the 1,000th runner for SotD, running in the...

7.10 Kempton:

Yes, it's quite unbelievable that an idea Matt came up with to provide an alternative angle to form tipping should have blossomed in to a daily feature now celebrating its 1000th single runner in a little over three years.

A cold, damp Wednesday in December hardly seems right for such a momentous occasion, but let's see if we can mark the day with a winner in the shape of the 4 yr old gelding Hazzaat in this two-mile, Class 6 handicap on the All-Weather.

Our trainer today is Neil King...

...who appears to have his string in fine order at present with 9 winners and 6 more being placed from his 31 runners in the last month. And not only has he been profitable to back recently, you could have a made a decent pot of money from backing him blindly, as his record over the six years from all runners reads 150 winners from 1278 runners with an 11.7% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 242.1pts at an ROI a shade under 19%, which is good going off so many bets.

Yet, from all those runners, only 59 of them have competed in A/W handicap contests, but his 18.6% strike rate achieved via 11 winners is decent and these winners have accumulated level stakes profits of some 98.5pts (+166.9% ROI). Those running at odds of 2/1 to 12/1 are 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 62.5pts (+215.5%ROI).

Hazzaat carries top weight at 10-4 here after winning over course and distance last week....

But I wouldn't let that worry you too much, as male top weighted runners in A/W handicaps of 1m6f and beyond have won 62 of 325 (19.1% SR) races since 2009. And with Hazzaat in mind, we can be more specific with our filtering down of that stat...

Those priced at odds against but below 5/1 have a 40/117 (34.2% SR) record for 19.5pts (+16.7% ROI) profit.
4 yr olds are 14/48 (29.2% SR) for 12.2pts (+25.4% ROI)
Those carrying between 9-13 and 10-9 have won 23 of 112 (20.5% SR) for 53.9pts profit (+48.1% ROI), of which those priced in the 15/8 to 5/1 banding have won 13 of 35 (37.1% SR) races producing 25.3pts profit at an ROI of 72.2% to date.

Previous course and distance winners have gone on to win 21 times from 66 attempts (31.8% SR) with excellent 60.4pts profit representing almost 92p in the pound on all bets.

Tom Queally is back in the saddle again...

...having ridden Hazzaat to victory over C&D nine days in what, somewhat surprisingly, was only his third ever ride for Neil King, but he now has a 2/3 record for the trainer! These longer distance races can really take it out of the lightweight flat jockeys, but there are a small group that excel over the longer trip and Tom is one of them.

In the last five years, Tom has ridden 15 winners from 84 handicap contests over 2m to 2m2f with that 17.9% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 35.7pts (+42.5% ROI), whilst his record in those events here at Kempton is 8 wins from 23 (34.8% SR) for 22.4pts (+97.4% ROI) profit.

So, having found some relevant stats for jockey, trainer and horse, it's pleasing to see we're being offered a reasonable price about our selection and that's due to the presence of 5/2 favourite Haines, who is unproven at the trip, hasn't run here before and is creeping up the weights without winning. I'm not dismissing his chances, but I wouldn't want to be on him at 5/2 or even shorter, so the call for Wednesday and our 1000th selection is a 1pt win bet on Hazzaat at 4/1 BOG with either Bet365, Paddy Power or the Betfair Sportsbook and you can, of course, always...

...click here for the latest betting on the 7.10 Kempton 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2012

Stat of the Day 06/07

Stat of the Day 06/07

Stat of the Day: 6th July 2012

Good Morning (just!), apologies for the lateness of SotD today. Atrocious weather in East Lancashire overnight resulted in a loss of power, which has only recently been restored and conditions here are more suited to the Boat Race than horse racing. Today's cards & weather do not make for an easy punting experience and I'd suggest you tread very carefully. If this rain persists, it could make life very difficult for racing at Haydock, Doncaster & Beverley: Warwick has already gone!

Our difficulties have been further compounded by the sudden withdrawal of today's selection whilst I was compilng this piece, so I've had to go back to the drawing board for a secondary option!

So, we're now going to tackle a 10-furlong, Class 3 Handicap on what is probably the dryest track being used today! Our race is the...

4.35 Sandown

Trainer Sarah Humphrey isn't renowned for her flat racing prowess: just 13 runners in 5 years! And before March of this year, she'd never sent any horses (flat or jumps!) to Sandown Park. Her charge that day was a faller in the grand Military Gold Cup priced at 40/1. Since then she has had 2 entries on the flat here at Sandown: both contested by and indeed won by today's SotD selection: Chain of Events.

Chain of Events ran twice at Sandown in 2011 for previous trainer Neil King, resulting in two places (a 2nd and a 3rd). Since moving to Sarah Humphrey, he has woth both outings over Course & Distance, once on Soft ground and once on Good ground.

He obviously likes the course, will get the ground, even if it softens up a touch and is in good heart as he attempts to complete a hat-trick in a shade over 5 weeks. This race, however, looks tougher than his 2 previous outings and as such, I'm putting him forward as an E/W bet today, and I've taken some of the 14/1 BOG widely available this morning, but you can (and really should!)...

Click here for the latest odds for the 4.35 Sandown .