Tag Archives: Mick Easterby

Stat of the Day, 24th September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.45 Newmarket : Florencio @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (In touch, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and weakened final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Where's Jeff @ 4/1 BOG  

In a 7-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m½f on Soft ground, worth £5434 to the winner...

Why?

A 3yr old gelding dropping in class, returning to a track he has run well on previously, Conditions shouldn't trouble him and he gets on well with his jockey.

Numerically this translates as he has a win and a runner-up finish from two previous outings here at Hamilton and he was a runner-up (beaten by just a short head) on his only prior run on soft ground. He has two wins and a place from four efforts with Nathan Evans in the saddle and his record of 2 wins and a place from 5 handicap runs includes a 1 from 1 at this course and distance.

If that's not enough to convince you, then his stablemates also go well at this venue, with Mick Easterby saddling up 7 winners from 25 (28% SR) for 11.4pts (+45.6% ROI) here over the last four years, including...

  • males at 6 from 20 (30%) for 11.9pts (+59.5%)
  • Nathan Evans is 5 from 15 (33.3%) for 5.22pts (+34.8%)
  • over this 8.5f course and distance : 4/7 (57.1%) for 12pts (+171.7%)
  • and after a break of 1 to 2 months : 3/4 (75%) for 15.16pts (+379%)

Nathan Evans + males over 8.5/9 furlongs = 3 from 5 960%) for 6.18pts (+123.6% ROI) with a 1 from 1 record producing 4.66pts from the one that ran after a break of 45-60 days.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Where's Jeff @ 4/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.00 Lingfield : Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, ridden 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on, led towards finish, headed close home by a flying finisher)

Next up is Friday's...

7.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Robero @ 13/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 3,  7f A/W Handicap (3yo+) on tapeta worth £9704 to the winner...

Why?

It wouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that this 6 yr old gelding might have needed the run when last seen being well beaten at Haydock six days ago. The mitigating circumstances were a 168 day absence, unsuitably soft ground and racing at a higher class than today. He's now back down at Class 3 and back on the All-Weather for the first time in ten months racing on a track where he's 1 from 2, having previously won over course and distance.

Since the start of 2013, his trainer Mick Easterby is 30 from 159 (18.9% SR) for 92.5pts (+58.2% ROI) with his handicappers turned back out just 4 to 7 days after their last run, from which...

  • males are 28/135 (20.7%) for 100.8pts (+74.7%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 27/105 (25.7%) for 89.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 16/98 (16.3%) for 74.5pts (+76%)
  • those unplaced LTO : 17/92 (18.5%) for 93.4pts (+101.5%)
  • on the A/W : 12/44 (27.3%) for 25.2pts (+57.3%)
  • 6 yr olds are 8/31 (25.8%) for 12.3pts (+39.6%)
  • those ridden by a 5lb claimer : 4/19 (21.1%) for 19.1pts (+100.8%)
  • at Class 3 : 4/18 (22.2%) for 20.6pts (+114.7%)
  • and on tapeta : 4/18 (22.2%) for 11pts (+61.3%)

In addition to the above, Mr Easterby's runners are 19 from 112 (17% SR) for 56.1pts (+50.1% ROI) profit in handicaps on the A/W here at Newcastle, with those failing to make the frame last time out stepping up to win 12 of 76 (15.8%) for 64.9pts (+85.4%), whilst today's jockey Harrison Shaw has ridden 24 of those handicappers, winning 5 times (20.8% SR) for profits of 29.7pts at an attractive ROI of some 123.6%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Robero @ 13/2 BOG which was available from Betbright & Hills at 5.30pm on Thursday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th July 2017

Tuesday's Result :

7.00 Chelmsford : Udontdodou @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 Held up mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, headway 1f out, kept on to take 3rd place inside final furlong, no impression.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Catterick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swansway @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner over course and distance a week ago in an amateur riders' contest, showing he can get the job done without some wily old pro cajoling him along, which is just as well as this race is for apprentice jockeys!

He's up 6lbs for that win LTO, but today's rider takes 5 off, so we shouldn't be weighted out of contention at least, but I'm really more interested in how this race fits trainer Mick Easterby's MO, as this horse flagged up in several different parts of my database when I was compiling my daily shortlist, so here goes...

Let's start with Mr Easterby's recent record at this track, shall we? Well, over the last 3 (including this one) seasons, his Class 5/6 handicappers are 8/37 (21.6% SR) for 21.45pts (+58% ROI) profit here in North Yorkshire, from which...

  • males are 6/23 (26.1%) for 10.9pts (+47.4%)
  • those priced at 11/4 to 15/2 are 7/19 (36.8%) for 24.25pts (+127.6%)
  • those last seen 2 to 15 days ago are 6/18 (33.3%) for 20.73pts (+115.2%)
  • those with a top 2 finish LTO are 5/10 (50%) for 16.05pts (+160.5%)
  • over this 1m4f C&D : 2/4 (50%) for 9.26pts (+231.5%)
  • and LTO winners are also 2/4 (50%), but for 8.93pts (+223.3%)

Which in itself is fairly compelling, but let's add some more meat to the bones by looking at the yard's quick returners ie those who last raced just 3 to 7 days earlier and over the last two years, such runners are 18/77 (23.4% SR) for 53.8pts (+69.8% ROI) : another set of impressive figures, which include...

  • handicappers at 18/75 (24%) for 55.8pts (+74.4%)
  • males at 17/65 (26.2%) for 59.5pts (+91.5%)
  • those priced 9/4 to 12/1 are 18/52 (34.6%) for 78.8pts (+151.5%)
  • at class 6 : 4/16 (25%) for 15.84pts (+99%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/12 (25%) for 3.15pts (+26.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/14 (35.7%) for 14.8pts (+105.6%)

But wait, there's yet more to come...for, in handicaps since 2010, Mick Easterby's runners priced at 11/4 to 8/1 who won LTO and are now running at a venue where they have previously won over course and distance = 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 17.7pts (+50.6% ROI), and of those 35 runners, those who won over C&D LTO are 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.9pts (+60.5%)

And finally (!) before I go...as this is an apprentices' race, the Easterby handicappers ridden by a 5lb claimer at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 are 37/215 (17.2% SR) for 113.5pts (+52.8% ROI) since the start of 2012, from which...

  • at Class 6 : 14/37 (37.8%) for 82.1pts (+221.9&%)
  • LTO winners are 10/35 (28.6%) for 43.7pts (+124.7%)
  • running over the same C&D as LTO : 5/17 (29.4%) for 12.3pts (+72.2%)
  • here at Catterick : 6/12 (50%) for 31.2pts (+259.6%)
  • running over the same C&D as LTO win : 2/5 (40%) for 3.37pts (+67.4%)

...all of which points us to...a 1pt win bet on Swansway @ 9/2 BOG which was available in at least half a dozen places at 6.00pm on Monday, whilst those able to do should grab the 5/1 BOG offered by Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Catterick...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st April 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.00 Taunton : Ujagar @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 9/4 Held up rear division, headway before 2 out, kept on same pace

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.40 Newbury...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bowson Fred5/1 BOG

Why?

So, we've got a 5 yr old gelding with 5 wins under his belt at this trip already and who has also been ridden to victory three times by today's jockey, 3lb claimer, Nathan Evans, who has been in fine form of late, winning eight times and placing on a further two occasions from his 26 rides over the last fortnight. Many of those rides have been for today's trainer Mick Easterby, whose horses have 10 wins and 5 places from 31 in that same two week period.

The Easterby / Evans alliance is one to be reckoned with nowadays, as together they are 58/372 (15.6% SR) for 67.1pts (+18% ROI) in handicap contests and those returns from blind unfiltered betting are excellent. We can (and will!) however seek to reduce the number of bets placed whilst increasing the ROI as follows....

  • horses finishing in the first 4 home LTO are 37/191 (19.4%) for 36.2pts (+19%)
  • those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 23/110 (20.9%) for 25.2pts (+23%)
  • over the minimum 5f sprint : 16/72 (22.2%) for 59.2pts (+82.2%)
  • and on good to firm ground : 10/53 (18.9%) for 35.2pts (+66.5%)

The above stat regarding Nathan's 3lb claim isn't surprising at all, as since 2009, the Easterby horses that have been ridden by a 3lb claimer in Flat (turf) handicaps at odds of 10/1 and shorter have won 22 of 73 (30.1% SR) for profits of 79.1pts (+108.3% ROI), including...

  • those who failed to win LTO : 20/59 (33.9%) for 80.9pts (+137.2%)
  • those who last raced 6-45 days ago are 15/55 (27.3%) for 55.7pts (+101.2%)
  • those finishing 2nd to 7th 6-45 days earlier are 13/37 (35.1%) for 56.9pts (+153.9%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 10/27 (37%) for 47.1pts (+174.5%)
  • and those ridden by Nathan Evans are 8/17 (47.1%) for 35.6pts (+209.2%)

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Bowson Fred5/1 BOG which was on offer with Betfair Sports and Paddy Power at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 9th February 2017

Wednesday's Result :

4.30 Carlisle : Alfie Spinner @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 Handy until before 2nd, mid-division, headway approaching 11th, stayed on one pace from 4 out.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

6.25 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Babouska @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has finished 114 in her last three starts, having won on her first attempt at 9.5f two starts ago, before drop back to 1m saw her defeated LTO 13 days ago. She now comes back up in trip by a couple of furlongs and a similar run to that effort over 9.5f should be enough again today. She's already 2/4 at this grade and also 2/4 under today's jockey Nathan Evans.

Trained by Mick Easterby, who is 13/40 (32.5% SR) for 27.6pts (+69% ROI) in handicaps here at Chelmsford since the start of 2016, including...

  • those ridden by Nathan Evans = 8/30 (26.7%) for 15.2pts (+50.6%)
  • top 4 LTO = 11/29 (37.9%) for 31.4pts (+108.4%)
  • 1-20 days since last run = 10/27 (37%) for 24.7pts (+91.3%)

AND...those ridden by Nathan Evans, 1-20 days after a top 4 finish LTO are 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 21.1pts (+110.8%), with those priced in the 5/2 to 6/1 range winning 7 of 13 (53.9%) for 27.1pts (+208.2%).

Also, since the start of 2015, the Easterby A/W runners stepping up in trip by 0.5f to 2.5f are 16/90 (17.8% SR) for 37.6pts (+41.7% ROI), from which...

  • handicappers are 16/76 (21.1%) for 51.6pts (+67.8%)
  • ridden by Nathan Evans : 8/40 (20%) for 34.2pts (+85.4%)
  • at Class 6 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 44.87pts (+131.8%)
  • 3rd or 4th LTO : 7/18 (38.9%) for 40.2pts (+223.3%)
  • females are 3/18 (16.7%) for 26.1pts (+144.7%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 3/13 (23.1%) for 3.05pts (+23.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Babouska @ 7/2 BOG which was available with Betfair and Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 21st January 2017

Friday's Result :

12.50 Musselburgh: Danceintothelight @ 6/1 BOG WON at 13/2 Made all, soon clear, ridden before 2 out, kept on well to win by 4.5 lengths.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Newcastle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swansway @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner over course and distance last time out, three weeks ago under today's jockey Nathan Evans and he's been very consistent of late on the A/W, making the frame in each of his last four runs.

He's up 4lbs for that win, but he was slow away last time, yet stayed on well to win by a length and a half, so with a better start this time, should be able to handle the extra weight.

He's trained by Mick Easterby whose LTO winners are 43/214 (20.1% SR) for 39.7pts (+18.6% ROI) over the last four years, with the following of particular relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 43/209 (20.6%) for 44.7pts (+21.4%)
  • males are 39/186 (21%) for 47.3pts (+25.4%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 8/1 are 34/125 (27.2%) for 65.7pts (+52.5%)
  • over the last two years : 24/119 (20.2%) for 37.5pts (+31.5%)
  • those who won by just 1 to 3 lengths LTO are 21/91 (23.1%) for 56.5pts (+62%)
  • ridden by Nathan Evans : 9/51 (17.7%) for 11.1pts (+21.8%)
  • and at Class 6 : 7/29 (24.1%) for 19.4pts (+66.9%)

AND...if you just backed the male handicappers priced at 9/4 to 8/1 over the last 4 yrs, you'd have had 30 winners from 102 (29.4% SR) and profits of 68.2pts at an ROI of 66.9%

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Swansway @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor and Hills at 9.45pm on Friday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Newcastle 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 22nd December 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.10 Ludlow : Danceintothelight @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 9/2 - Disputed lead until lost place before 4 out, soon weakened

Thursday's pick goes in the...

1.20 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Curzon Line @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

This 7yr old gelding was a winner here at Chelmsford last time out, five weeks ago and was so dominant that he was eased right down and still won by more then 3 lengths. That was over 7f, but he seemed to have plenty left, suggesting the extra step up to a mile should be fine, especially when he's already won three times at this trip.

Mick Easterby's LTO winners have won again on 41 of 204 handicap runs (20.1% SR) since the start of 2013, generating level stakes profits of 40.7pts (+19.9% ROI) along the way, including...

  • males winning 38 of 178 (21.4%) for 51.6pts (+29%)
  • those who won by 1-10 lengths LTO are 29/114 (25.4%) for 73.4pts (+64.4%)
  • those aged 6 or 7 are 15/63 (23.8%) for 41.8pts (+66.3%)
  • those ridden by Nathan Evans are 7/45 (15.6%) for 8.06pts (+17.9%)
  • and those whose LTO win was 31-60 days ago are 11/38 (28.9%) for 52.1pts (+137.2%)

And if that wasn't enough, the yard's form at this venue this year is excellent with 12 winners from 35 (34.3% SR), all in handicap contests, producing profits of 27.6pts at an ROI of 78.8%, broken down as follows...

  • males are 12/30 (40%) for 32.6pts (+108.6%)
  • ridden by Nathan Evans : 7/25 (28%) for 15.1pts (+60.5%)
  • aged 5-7 : 10/16 (62.5%) for 37.9pts (+236.9%)
  • 3yo+ contests : 5/15 933.3%) for 10.5pts (+70%)
  • LTO winners : 6/12 (50%) for 20.34pts (+169.5%)
  • over this 1m C&D : 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.61pts (+95.1%)
  • and at Class 4 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.64pts (+58%)

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Curzon Line at 5/2 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and at least 15 others (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see if your preferred bookie is also offering 5/2 BOG, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

 

Stat of the Day, 7th July 2016

Wednesday's Result :

5.10 Yarmouth : Mukaabra @ 3/1 BOG (12/5 after 20p R4) 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leaders, effort to chase winner over 1f out, one pace final furlong) And another well backed placer!

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bajan Rebel at 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old mare has been somewhat of a revelation since returning to action in April of this year after a break of some 30 weeks. Her 6 runs this year have seen her finish 113123 (1123 over this 7f trip) and she was only narrowly beaten in both of her last two encounters and both at a higher grade than she faces today.

Overall, she has 3 wins from 8 rides on good to soft or worse, she's 3/12 at the trip, 2/6 under today's jockey plus those two placed efforts and she has won on her only previous run over this course and distance.

Furthermore, jockey Nathan Evans is 22/118 (18.6% SR) for 35.6pts (+30.2% ROI) when riding for Mick Easterby this year, with the following of interest...

  • in handicaps : 22/113 (19.5%) for 40.6pts (+36%)
  • when Nathan claims 5lbs : 14/75 (18.7%) for 27.4pts (+36.5%)
  • over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs : 18/71 (25.4%) for 63.8pts (+89.9%)
  • on the Flat : 14/71 (19.7%) for 30.3pts (+42.7%)
  • on horses rested for just 3 to 15 days : 13/49 (26.5%) for 31.7pts (+64.8%)
  • those priced at 2/1 to 11/2 are 17/48 (35.4%) for 36.5pts (+76.1%)

...so, the play is a 1pt win bet on Bajan Rebel at 9/2 BOG with any of the half dozen or so firms showing that price at 7.05pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 27th May 2016

Thursday's Result :

2.40 Bangor : Slidecheck @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/1 Held up mid-division, headway from 4 out, went 3rd from 2 out, kept on and lost 3rd place close home. I'm clearly not doing too well with the summer jumpers at present, so...

...Friday's pick goes in the...

8.40 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Qaffaal at 11/4 BOG.

Why?

This 5yr old gelding was a winner two starts ago off a mark of 63, but failed to cope properly with a 5lb rise in weight a week later, only managing to finish third, a length and three quarters off the pace. He's up another 1lb for that run (I never really get how horses are penalised for losing), but the booking of the more than useful 5lb claimer Nathan Evans puts the horse on a very workable mark today.

Add in the fact that he's already won over this 7f trip on good to form ground and confidence starts to build. Some people don't like backing horses ridden by claimers, but certain trainers are very adept at using these jockeys and Mick Easterby certainly places them well, as since the start of 2012, 5lb claimers have won 24 of 170 handicaps (14.1% SR) for profits of 35.8pts (+21.1% ROI),

That's a decent return from blindly backing all runners, but better results can be achieved by using any of the following logical filters...

  • those priced 6/4 to 14/1 are 24/121 (19.8% SR) for 84.8pts (+70.1% ROI)
  • on the Flat (turf) : 16/98 (16.3% SR) for 38.6pts (+39.3% ROI)
  • at Class 5/6 : 19/93 (20.4% SR) for 83.3pts (+89.6% ROI)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 12/52 (23.01% SR) for 31.2pts (+60% ROI)
  • over trips of 5-7 furlongs : 9/45 (20% SR) for 39.5pts (+87.9% ROI)
  • 5yr olds are 11/42 (26.2% SR) for 66pts (+157% ROI)
  • those ridden by Nathan Evans are 7/39 (18% SR) for 10.9pts (+28% ROI)
  • and those last seen 26-45 days ago are 5/34 (14.7% SR) for 23.8pts (+70% ROI)

AND...Class 5/6 Flat (turf) handicappers priced at 6/4 to 14/1 are 14/49 (28.6% SR) for 78.5pts (+160.3% ROI)

In addition to the above, 3 to 5 yr olds racing on the Flat over 5f to a mile 16 to 60 days after finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th and were also winners two starts ago (ie form of 12, 13 or 14) are 247/1384 (17.9% SR) for 320.3pts (+23.2% ROI) since the start of the 2012 season, with the following of particular interest today...

  • those last seen 3 to 5 weeks ago are 132/716 (18.4% SR) for 207.6pts (+29% ROI)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 97/479 (20.3% SR) for 169.8pts (+35.5% ROI)
  • 5 yr olds are 36/182 (19.8% SR) for 108.8pts (+59.8% ROI)
  • and here at Musselburgh : 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 12.75pts (+45.5% ROI)

AND...those racing on good to firm, three to five weeks after their last run are 53/252 (21% SR) for 117.2pts (+46.5% ROI)

So the call today is...a 1pt win bet on Qaffaal at 11/4 BOG which was available with either BetVictor and/or Paddy Power, who were the best available at 8.00pm, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 11th February 2016

Wednesday's Result :

4.35 Carlisle : Captain Redbeard @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, front pair clear 5th, went 2nd before jumping left 2 out, no chance with winner, lost 2 places on flat)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

6.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bosham @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

If you want a quick and easy, yet profitable way of backing horses on the A/W, you could do worse than blindly backing Mick Easterby's male handicappers. Since the start of 2009, these runners have won 92 of 550 races (16.7% SR) for 161.2pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 29.3% and those are tremendous figures indeed.

But using those numbers in respect of this particular race shows us that Mick's runners are strong in these contests, as they are...

  • 74/469 (15.8% SR) for 164.3pts (+35% ROI) carrying 8-6 to 9-9
  • 81/445 (18.2% SR) for 200.9pts (+45.2% ROI) running 4 to 60 days after their last effort
  • 67/394 (17% SR) for 124.8pts (+31.7% ROI) on Polytrack
  • 46/289 (15.9% SR) for 153.2pts (+53% ROI) in fields of 11 to 13 runners
  • 19/99 (19.2% SR) for 79.5pts (+80.3% ROI) as 6yr olds
  • 6/29 (20.7% SR) for 14.6pts (+50.5% ROI) ridden by Nathan Evans
  • 4/16 (25% SR) for 5.9pts (+36.7% ROI) here at Chelmsford

And in Bosham, the team have a horse well suited to conditions faced here. His overall record of 7 wins from 32 is decent enbough, but closer inspection of his record shows he's never been out of the first four home from nine starts on the A/W, winning six of the nine! And from that 6 from 9 record, he has achieved the following...

  • 5 from 8 in blinkers
  • 4 from 7 with today's jockey
  • 4 from 6 in fields of 8 to 12 runners
  • 3 from 5 here at Chelmsford
  • 3 from 5 as a 6yr old
  • 3 from 4 with a tongue tie
  • 3 from 4 at this trip
  • 3 from 4 carrying less than 9-0
  • 3 from 4 in blinkers and tongue tied

And my recommended bet, based on the above data and prices available at 7.15pm is...

A 1pt bet on Bosham and that's at 5/1 BOG pretty much everywhere, so to pick your preferred bookie...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...