Tag Archives: Michael Dods

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

1.40 Yarmouth : Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG (9/5 after a 40p R4!) WON at 7/4 (With leader, led narrowly over 4f out, driven over 1f out, soon ridden, stayed on well inside final furlong to by a length and a quarter)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gale Force Maya @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 2, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm  ground worth £18,675 to the winner...

Why?...

This in-form three year old filly comes here off the back of three wins on the bounce, all over this trip up at Carlisle with today's jockey Paul Mulrennan in the saddle for two of the wins. She has now won five of her ten starts and whilst this is tougher, up in class and weight, there's still a suggestion that she remains ahead of the handicapper. Her suitability for the task ahead is highlighted by her current career achievements that include...

  • 5/8 over 6f, 5/7 in fields of 5-9 runners and 4/8 after less than a month's rest
  • 4/7 this year, 4/7 in handicaps and 3/5 under Paul Mulrennan
  • 3/5 on Good to Firm, 3/3 at 4/1 and shorter and 1/1 here at Ponty, acquired over course and distance

Her trainer, Michael Dods, has done well with his LTO winners of late with 14 from 46 (30.4% SR) making 40.3pts (+87.6% ROI) over the past 12 months and whilst 46 isn't a huge sample size, there's enough there to make some assumptions about Michael's MO with these LTO winners.

I say this because there are a myriad of profitable angles at play with these 46 runners and I could produce a long list of reasons why this horse is running here today, but I'll hold back the data geek in me and "just" give you 16 of those angles that are relevant today. So from the original 14 from 46, we have...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 49.6pts (+150.4%) within 30 days of their last run
  • 13/29 (44.8%) for 50.5pts (+174.1%) over trips of 6f and shorter
  • 12/41 (29.3%) for 34.6pts (+84.3%) on the Flat
  • 12/26 (46.2%) for 36.3pts (+139.6%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 21.9pts (+66.4%) in handicaps
  • 10/18 (55.6%) for 45.6pts (+253.3%) with 2-6 previous distance wins
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 31.1pts (+148.1%) from previous track winners
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 23.8pts (+103.4%) stepping up by a class or two
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 31.05pts (+207%) in August/September
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 29.2pts (+171.5%) with female runners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 17.7pts (+118.1%) from previous C&D winners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 17pts (+113.1%) over a 6f trip
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 11.5pts (+71.6%) with 3 yr olds
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 4.7pts (+31.4%) with Paul Mulrennan in the saddle
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 16.8pts (+210%) at Class 2
  • and last but not least...2/2 (100%) for 8.92pts (+446%) in fillies races

As you can expect, the above can be used as a kind of "pick and mix", but this does dilute the sample size each time you add another filter. However you might (or equally might not) be interested to know that from the above...

...Flat hcps + 5-6f + 5/1 and shorter + <30dslr = 7/8 (87.5% SR) for 29.6pts (+369.7% ROI) and all had at least 1 previous distance win...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Gale Force Maya @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.00pm on Wednesday with Bet365 offering a little more, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

7.30 Lingfield : Gainsay @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Behind, good headway on rail over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, 3rd towards finish, not reach leaders, beaten by half a length)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £3493 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was a winner by a good 4 lengths over this course and distance under today's jockey when last seen just 7 days ago.

What was more remarkable was that she completely missed the break and was left at the back from the start on a track/trip that normally favours her normal prominent racing style, so a better start today would really help.

She's the only 3 yr old in the race so on top of her jockey's 5lb claim, she gets a very healthy 7lbs weight for age allowance, meaning she's getting weight from most of her rivals today.

Her trainer Michael Dods' horses are running very well of late, winning 11 of 62 (17.7% SR) for 23.5pts (+38% ROI) over the last 30 days with an even more impressive 8 winners from 41 (19.5% SR) for 29.6pts (+72.3% ROI) over the last fortnight alone.

In addition to his recent good form, Michael's record on the Flat with LTO winners now priced at 5/1 and shorter stands at 28/85 (32.9% SR) for 15.4pts (+18.1% ROI) since the start of the 2015 season.

Also, since the start of the 2014 season, his Class 6 Flat runners turned back out after less than three weeks rest are 30 from 113 (26.6% SR) for 76.3pts (+67.5% ROI), whilst in that same 2014-18 timeframe, Michael Dods' runners are 30/240 (12.5% SR) for 122.3pts (+51% ROI) here at Ayr with a 7 from 42 (16.6%) record at Class 6 yielding 18.3pts profit at an ROI of 43.7%

And finally for today...since the start of 2013 at Classes 4 to 6, horses who won over course and distance LTO by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 in the previous 10 days are 184/524 (35.1% SR) for 121.1pts (+23.1% ROI) when running at the same class as that win, from which...

  • those now priced at 13/2 or shorter are 180/473 (38.1%) for 130.3pts (+27.6%)
  • those racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 116/324 (35.8%) for 110.5pts (+34.1%)
  • whilst those now priced at 13/2 or shorter, racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 114/288 (39.6%) for 123.2pts (+42.8%)

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Mecca's Spirit 11/4 BOGa price available from Bet365, Betway, BetVictor, SkyBet & Hills at 6.20pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2017

Bank Holiday Monday's Result :

4.05 Cartmel : Morning Royalty @ 7/2 BOG - 3rd at 9/2 : Held up in rear, headway after 14th, no impression last, went 3rd towards finish...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.45 Carlisle:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rossall @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

An opening mark of 76 looks very workable to me about this 2yr old who has shown improvement in each of his three starts to date, finishing as a runner-up over 5f last time out.

That run was at Thirsk 24 days ago and he now drops in class for his handicap debut and becomes of further interest to me, as his trainer Michael Dods' handicappers dropping down one grade are 48/354 (13.6% SR) for 165.3pts (+46.7% ROI) profit over the last six seasons, with those returning from a short break of 16 to 25 days winning 16 of 101 (15.8%) and making 56.1pts (+55.5%) in the process.

Today's jockey Paul Mulrennan is Rossall's only rider to date, so they've already begun to forge an understanding and Paul comes here aiming to add to his tally of 8 Carlisle wins already this season. Those eight wins have come from just 30 rides (26.7% SR) and have rewarded followers with profits of 20.9pts at an ROI of 69.5%. And, from those 30 rides, he is 5/10 (50%) for 21.5pts (+215%) on horses trained by Michael Dods!

And finally, Paul Mulrennan is one of the few jockeys you can regularly trust to get a favourite over the line, as he's been profitable to follow on favs in each of the past eight seasons, winning 192 times on 500 favourites (38.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 72.2pts (+14.4% ROI), including...

  • in handicaps : 104/308 (33.8%) for 57.3pts (+18.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 93/222 (41.9%) for 43.8pts (+19.7%)
  • and here at Carlisle : 12/31 (38.7%) for 4.95pts (+16%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rossall @ 3/1 BOG, which was widely available at 8.45pm on Monday, although there was some 10/3 BOG at Ladbrokes.. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st July 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.35 Chester : Shaaqaaf @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 Held up behind, ridden and headway over 2f out, chased winner over 1f out, kept on and held near finish, beaten by half a length .

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Ayr...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aprovado @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

A relatively simple one to end a frustrating month...

A 5yr old gelding in good nick : made the frame in 8 of his last 12 runs, winning three times.

His trainer Michael Dods has 23 winners from 205 (11.2% SR) for profits of 101.8pts (+49.7% ROI) here at Ayr over the last four seasons and of those 205 runners...

  • males are 20/177 (11.3%) for 108.7pts (+61.4%)
  • those last seen 16-60 days ago are 16/123 (13%) for 147pts (+119.5%)
  • on Good ground : 11/78 (14.1%) for 139.4pts (+178.7%)
  • and those ridden by today's jockey, Callum Rodriguez are 2/7 (28.6%) for 34.5pts (+492.9%)

...and that's the simple logic behind...a 1pt win bet on Aprovado @ 5/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Ayr...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st May 2017

Tuesday's Result :

2.10 Lingfield : Rattle On @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/4 Held up in mid-division, headway over 1f out, went 4th inside final furlong, kept on, unable to get on terms.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Ayr...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Trinity Star10/3 BOG

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who is 5/9 (55.5% SR) for 11.63pts (+129.2% ROI) at odds of 5/1 and shorter over 1m to 1m2f in Class 5/6 Turf handicaps, including...

  • those ridden by Paul Mulrennan are 5/8 (62.5%) for 12.63pts (+157.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/4 (75%) for 9.49pts (+237.3%)
  • running within a week of their last run : 2/2 (100%) for 3.15pts (+157.5%)
  • and here at Ayr : 1/1 for 5.36pts

And his trainer, Michael Dods' own record here at Ayr since the start of 2014 stands at 18/176 (10.2% SR) for 88.4pts (+50.2% ROI), of which 3 to 6 yr old male handicappers are 10/95 (10.5%) for 97.6pts (+102.8%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Trinity Star10/3 BOG which was on offer at Betway, Bet365 & Betvictor at 7.15pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 25th April 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.35 Sandown: Sire De Grugy @ 14/1 E/W BOG 4th at 12/1 (Tracked leader until after 2nd, 2nd again next, led 5th, not fluent when pressed 3 out, soon headed, no chance with winner, lost 2nd at the last, weakened run-in)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Ayr

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sea Wolf at 3/1 BOG.

Why?

Well, firstly, his trainer, Michael Dods has a record of 26 winners from 205 runners in Ayr handicaps since the start of the 2010 campaign and this 12.7% strike rate has generated 118.5pts of level stakes profit, broken down as follows...

  • male runners are 21/168 (12.5% SR) for 127.9pts (+76.1% ROI)
  • on good / good to firm ground, they are 12/113 (10.6% SR) for 103.1pts (+91.2% ROI)
  • 4 to 6 yr olds are 15/109 (13.8% SR) for 145.6pts (+133.5% ROI)
  • those sent off in the 2/1 to 6/1 price range are 16/71 (22.5% SR) for 16.7pts (+23.6% ROI)
  • those with 11 to 16 previous runs under their belts are 8/39 (20.5% SR) for 166.2pts (+426.1% ROI)

The next point to note is that Sea Wolf is taking a step down in class today and over the last six seasons, Michael Dods' handicappers dropping down a grade are 43/334 (12.9% SR) for 141.1pts (+42.2% ROI) with 4yr olds winning 12 of 74 (16.2% SR) for 157.5pts (+212.9% ROI) and those running here at Ayr are 9/47 (19.2% SR) for 146.1pts (+312.6% ROI)

Michael's 4 yr olds dropping down a grade to run in Ayr handicaps are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 138.3pts (+728.1% ROI)

And whilst Sea Wolf's 170-day absence from the track might be a negative for some people, Michael Dods does have a decent record at getting his runners ready first time out. During the April to October months over the last six years, his flat handicappers running after a break of 4 to 8 months are 22 from 148 (14.9% SR) for 107.4pts (+72.6% ROI) and with today's contest in mind, those runners are...

  • 18/112 (16.1% SR) for 89.1pts (+79.5% ROI) in April
  • 15/62 (24.2% SR) for 39.5pts (+63.7% ROI) when sent off at 9/4 to 8/1
  • 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 38.3pts (+83.2% ROI) when ridden by Paul Mulrennan
  • 8/41 (19.5% SR) for 73pts (+177.9% ROI) as 4 yr olds

The Dods/Mulrennan/April angle with horses priced at 9/4 to 8/1 is worth 10 winners from 23 (43.5% SR) and level stakes profits of 40.3pts (+175.2% ROI), of which 3/4 yr olds are 7/14 (50% SR) for 33.6pts (+240.2% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Sea Wolf at 3/1 BOG with any of Bet365, Ladbrokes, Hills, Boylesports and/or BetVictor, who were the five market leaders at 7.20am. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

P.S. "Normal" service timings will be resumed this evening, now I've caught up on some sleep!

Stat of the Day, 8th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th August 2015

Another good run from a SotD horse benefiting from perfect jockey tactics at Newmarket on Friday evening meant a third winner of the week at a decent value price too.

John Egan settled Sixties Pilgrim in the second wave of runners poised for a late run and when the line of horses ahead of them parted with less than two furlongs to run, our duo seized their opportunity immediately, leading by the one pole and putting the race to bed very quickly indeed.

The chasing pack had no answer for our runner's turn of foot and by the time our filly hit the line, she was three and a half lengths clear of the runner-up in a comprehensive victory.

The final cherry on the cake was taking 7/2 BOG last night and getting paid out at double the 7/4 SP. I'd like for nothing more than a fourth winner of the week and that quest takes me North of the Border for Saturday evening's...

7.40 Ayr :

A Class 4, 3yo+ handicap sprint over 5f on good to soft ground (at present!), where Michael Dods' 6 yr old mare Gowanharry will attempt to make it third time lucky in recent course and distance runs and is priced at 11/4 BOG with Bet365 amongst others to do so.

On first inspection, a horse with a 0/8 record at this track, all over course and distance, isn't an obvious pick, but regular readers will know that I'm not one for picking the obvious! Yes, she is 0 from 8 here over course and distance, but she has made the frame in 7 of those 8 races, finishing as a runner-up on four occasions, going down by a short head, 0.75L, a neck and 0.5L in those defeats.

The last two of those runs were as recently as 19 and 33 days ago respectively, so despite not quite getting her nose in front, she's clearly in good nick and it could be argued (by me, anyway!) that this is possibly the weakest race she's contested for a while.

Now, having a horse with a 0 from 8 record at a track can be damaging for a trainer's figures, but despite her frequent crossbar-rattling, trainer Michael Dods does well enough here at the track, which is probably why he's persisting with her at this venue, because if truth be told, with a little luck she could well be 4/8, but that is, admittedly, pure conjecture.

And so, to Michael Dods...

Since the start of the 2010 campaign, his handicappers here at Ayr in the very broad 2/1 to 16/1 price range are 23 from 1438 (15.5% SR) for 31.6pts (+21.4% ROI) and whilst those ballpark figures are good enough to base any selection upon, it doesn't hurt to drill down further. So, from the 148 qualifying runners...

  • those aged 3 to 8 are 22/129 (28.75% SR) for 44.3pts (+34.3% ROI), of which...
  • ...those with 2 to 25 previous handicap runs are 19/106 (17.9% SR) for 43.8pts (+41.4% ROI), of which...
  • ...those racing within 45 days of their last outing are 19/93 (20.4% SR) for 56.8pts (+61.1% ROI).

Paul Mulrennan is in the saddle...

And he generally teams up well with Michael Dods, including a 3 from 10 record already this month, but more specifically and relevant to the contest in hand, Paul has ridden 10 winners from 47 rides (21.3% SR) on board Michael Dods handicappers here at Ayr since the start of the 2008 campaign. Those winners have generated profits of £207 to a £10 level stake, which is a 44.1% return on your money.

Of the 47, there's a 6/18 ( 33.33% SR) record producing 28pts (+155.8% ROI) profit from 5/6 yr old horses, whilst those priced up at 6/1 and shorter have won 9 of 23 (39.1% SR) for 27.6pts (+119.9% ROI).

The Paul Mulrennan / Michael Dods / Ayr handicaps / 5-6 yr olds at 6-1 and shorter combination has 5 winners from 10 runners (50% SR) and 18.9pts (189% ROI) profit to date and I'm hopeful that Gowanharry will improve those numbers today!

As I intimated at the top of the piece, I took my 11/4 BOG from Bet365, but as of 10.45pm on Friday night, at least 4 other firms were offering the same price, so you should all manage to get on at those odds.

Once the full market is open, you'll be able to...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 25th August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th August 2014

We backed Certificate at 7/2 on Saturday and a 25p Rule 4 deduction reduced our bet down to 21/8 BOG, which again proved substantially better than the 15/8 starting price.

And had we had a bit more luck in running, we might well have been celebrating at the finish. Unfortunately, our horse got boxed in at the 2 pole and didn't see daylight until there was only half a furlong to run. The eventual winner and main threat Jailawi had not only the run of the race, but had also set off for home by this point.

Freddie Tylicki urged as much as he could out of his ride and stayed on well, but was ultimately denied by a length and a quarter. Its easy to look back and see the race going against us, but there's little we can do in reality, other than dust ourselves down and go again in today's...

4.45 Ripon:

Now, a very competitive Class 2 handicap wouldn't necessarily be everyone's first port of call when they were scraping about for a result, but I assure there is more than pure sentiment behind me selecting the 10yr old veteran of 89 previous flat races, Osteopathic Remedy today, trust me!

Firstly, he's a 4-times course and distance winner and won last time out at Thirsk...

Former course and distance winners returning to Ripon on the back of a win last time out have won 12 of 41 races when sent off below 12/1 in the last four years.

This 29.3% strike rate has so far generated 27.1pts profit from level stakes at an ROI of 66.1%. 26 of the 41 (63.4%) have made the frame with E/W backers making 47.5pts (+57.9% ROI) profit, which is handy to know in case we want to go E/W later.

The horse is trained by Michael Dods and will be ridden by Connor Beasley claiming 3lbs...

We're likely to see the horse run in the 4/1 to 9/1 price range today, unless there's a flood of money for him, but Mr Dods' horses have run well in the past under a 3lb claimer within those odds parameters, winning 11 of 51 Flat handicaps in the last four seasons.

That's a strike rate of 21.6% and the level stakes profits of 27.5pts have produced a return above stakes invested of 53.9%.

Our runner's recent win was the first time he'd made the frame in 10 starts...

But that's not a negative to me. Very often in the past, when horses have won after a poor run of form, they have gone on to win again.

More specifically under the following criteria: Won LTO after at least three successive unplaced efforts / Running at same or within one class as LTO / Running at same trip or within 2f of LTO / Running over at least a mile.

Horses fulfilling those four key components of my microsystem have, since the start of the 2009 season, won 154 of 986 flat races at a strike rate of 15.6%. That's a low looking rate for SotD purposes, but it's actually excellent from such a huge sample size.

Those winners have generated a massive 252pts at an ROI to date of 25.6%

So, the general stats point to a good run for Osteopathic Remedy, but what about him specifically?

Well, he's massively exposed, of course, with 89 runs to his name, but 13 wins (14.6% SR) and a total of 29 placed efforts (32.6%) have made him profitable to back over the years.

In fact had you backed him to a £10 stake at Betfair SP in each of those 89 runs so far, you'd now be sitting on a profit of over £1040 (+117.2% ROI).

He's 12/54 at this trip, 7 from 42 at this level and 4 from 13 here at Ripon (4/12 over C&D). He'll get the forecasted good ground, as he's got five wins under such conditions so far, but he also won't mind any rain that might well appear before race time, as he also has a good record with cut in the ground.

He won this race last year off a mark of 90 (the same as today) and Connor Beasley was in the saddle again that day and he really loves this race. If you further analyse his 4/12 record over course and distance, you'll see that all four wins have actually come in this race, where his record over the years quite amazingly reads 131411.

He always gives it his all in this race, but time catches up with everyone eventually and he's slightly up in weight today (6lb penalty halved by the jockey claim) and with just those slight nagging doubts, I'm going to hedge my bets and take the 0.5pts E/W option with Osteopathic Remedy at 15/2 BOG with BetVictor. For all the other prices, please...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.45 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2014

Another nice bookie bashing win yesterday as Bookem Danno rallied gamely to win by the best part of three lengths yesterday. He was headed three fences from home and looked one paced and beaten, but he'd wisely saved something for the run in and Richard Johnson squeezed that little bit extra out of him and he pulled clear in the final half furlong on the flat.

We took 6/1 about an 11/4 favourite, which meant we got paid out at 218% of SP, another reminder of the paramount importance of using the BOG bookies.

Time is of the essence this morning (I'm unexpectedly running late!), so let's cut to the chase and quickly take a look at the...

3.55 Redcar:

Where One Boy might look like a bit of an ambitious punt, but I think he's definitely overpriced at 11/1 BOG with Corals.

His trainer Michael Dods has had 14 winners from his 65 runners in Redcar handicaps since 2010 at odds of 12/1 or shorter. The 21.5% strike rate has produced 35.8pts level stakes profits, an ROI of 55.1% and with over 40% of these runners making the frame an E/W bet looks on the cards.

He calls upon the services of 3lb claimer Connor Beasley here today and in the last three seasons, the Dods yard are 11/56 at odds of 12/1 or shorter when their horse was ridden with a 3lb claim. 11/56 is a decent enough strike rate at 19.64% and the resultant 18.5pts profit are equal to a 33% return on stakes.

Overall, Connor has ridden 23 winners from 176 rides for Michael Dods, a 13.1% strike rate generating 48.5pts profit at an ROI of 27.6%, so it's a flourishing partnership to keep an eye on.

As for One Boy himself, he has already won on good to firm ground, he's 3 from 8 at this trip and he's a course and distance winner. He might not have won in Class 4 company yet, but has competed in much better races (up to Listed class) than this without being disgraced. He's 1 from 2 here at Redcar, and in a race that doesn't look too strong on paper, he must have a chance of making the frame.

Corals look too long at 11/1, so it's a 0.5pts E/W bet on One Boy at 11/1 BOG with Corals today, but be sure to...

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Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 1st August 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 1st August 2012

A winner but a short-priced one yesterday. Key Gold won as she liked at odds of 5/4, having been suggested at 9/4. There was a small rule 4 for non-runners, meaning we got paid out around 15/8. That completed a fantastic July after our first unprofitable month in June (albeit that was a loss of less than a point).

Without wantonly blowing the Geegeez trumpet, Stat of the Day must be the best free tipping service on the internet. (If you know of a better one, can you let me know please?!)

Today, it's tough, so I'm going for a real outside poke, in the…

3.25 Redcar

This is a poor race, summed up by the fact that the favourite hasn't run for two years!

It's far from a race to go mad on, but the track record of Michael Dods means we need to take a second look at his Henry's Gift.

He's rated 45, which means he's rubbish basically. And his form figures of 5009 this year add little cause for optimism.

But Dods has winners at Redcar - plenty of winners. In fact, he's had eighteen in the last five years, for a profit of 26.55 units.

Henry's Gift is reverting to probably his best trip of ten furlongs, for the first time since finishing third around this time last year. Form at that trip is 343, and he might get an easy lead today as well.

20/1 BOG is the price, and each way is the call, very small stakes. Do…

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.25 Redcar.