Tag Archives: Majuro horse

Stat of the Day, 13th September 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th September 2012

Wrong horse syndrome again yesterday, as the 20/1 pig won but the 11/1 SotD drifting selection managed to bag third mercifully, for advised each way money, to save a hint of grace from a frustrating statistical situation (don't say that after a few pints).

No matter, onwards and downwards; and it's the 'roller coaster' for us today, and the…

4.15 Epsom

With thanks to the excellent Stat Attack feature in horseracebase.com for today's effort, we'll side with a horse which has managed to win four of his eight races in this grade... and placed in the other four.

Step forward Majuro, a horse that goes on any ground, and is highly effective at today's seven furlong trip.

Many of Majuro's best runs have come from the front and, whilst he's not obviously well drawn in trap eight, there is very little early pace and a reasonably short field to boot. So, I'm hopeful he can get out in front and stay there in a grade that he's often able to boss.

There's very little else to say on this one. The trainer, Charles Smith, is having his first runner at the track (seeking his first winner after just six entries) and the jockey, David Bergin, is a first season apprentice who's been riding winners. Indeed, he's won on eleven of his 65 rides so far, and looks one to keep an eye on.

One other thing to note is that the horse is owned by gambler, Willie McKay, so if the money comes it's a good sign. If it doesn't, it probably isn't... 😉

In what is a pretty weak race, we've a horse which is eight from eight in the places in this grade, so it would be churlish not to opt for an each way tickle. 13/2 BOG is available with our man Victor, but do check for the current state of play from the link below.

Click here for the latest odds on the 4.15 Epsom.

Stat of the Day, 30th July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 30th July 2012

A nice little tilt on the 'randomizer' button yesterday for SotD followers, as 25/1 advised poke Lodgician plugged on for third at a returned SP of 10/1. It did look like a bookie 'rick' (when they make a mistake with the odds) and so it proved, with us claiming a little over 6/1 for the place element.

It's really trappy today, and I was tempted to side with Dermot Weld at Galway (more on that at the bottom) but I'm going to head for the beach, and the…

9.05 Wolverhampton

It's horses for courses tonight, and a chap who may not be the force he was at the age of eight, but who absolutely loves it round Dunstall Park.

Majuro has run here five times in his career, and his finishing positions are 13111. He won a Class 3 handicap as recently as last season, and his last run - a bold front-running third to a well-handicapped rival, beaten three lengths - shows he's still in some heart. Today he races in Class 5 company.

The '3' was in a Class 2 six furlong handicap, and the other four 1's were all plus or minus 100 yards of nine furlongs of this course and distance.

He's won his last three races here, granted in sellers and claimers, by TEN lengths, SIX lengths and EIGHT lengths (!), so clearly there was no fluke about them.

He's drawn stall five today, which is ideal if they elect to front run again, and 9/1 BOG looks a cracking each way bet to me. I'm on.

As ever, make sure you get the right price, so…

Click here for the latest odds for the 9.05 Wolverhampton.

Now then, as a bonus 'stat of the week' for you, here's a quick breakdown of when to back Dermot Weld at Galway this week.

The top man at Ballybrit has an incredible record and ended up winning seventeen races at last year's Festival. But all his runners are not equally well-placed, so when is the right time to take a short price about a Weld runner at Galway?

Quite simply, when they're not in handicaps. Weld's handicap runners in recent years have won 18% of the time (perfectly respectable) for a profit of 9.86 units (again, perfectly respectable).

But in non-handicaps, he's won a ridiculous 43% of the time for 37.64 units!

Specifically, in maidens, Weld is 48% and +26.39; and in National Hunt flat races, he's a 50% +15.25 record.

Finally, horses having their first public run under rules have won a scarcely believable 55% of the time, for a 15.05 point profit.

As such, I'd be interested in Thunder Mountain (5.00) and Silver Concorde (7.10) tonight, and looking out especially for first time starters from the stable. Enjoy!