Tag Archives: Luke Morris

Stat of the Day, 20th September 2019

Thursday's pick was...

3.40 Pontefract : Gale Force Maya @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Raced wide in touch, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, led approaching final furlong, headed towards finish : the second time in as many days that the winner, Lady of Aran, has done us over after her withdrawal yesterday cost us a 40% reduction in winnings!)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Raashdy @ 4/1

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding has been placed in each of his last three outings (albeit all over hurdles), winning once and now returns to the All-Weather, where he has run the majority of his races to date, winning 6 of 26 (23.1% SR) for profits of 36.25pts (+139.4% ROI), from which he is...

  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 25.7pts (+122.3%) in handicaps
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 25.7pts (+122.3%) at trips of 1m2f and beyond
  • 4/16 (25%) for 26.7pts (+166.8%) at Class 6
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.33pts (+59.2%) at odds of 9/2 and shorter
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 8.33pts (+138.8%) at odds shorter than 7/2 (where I think we'll be today)
  • 3/20 (15%) for 2.52pts (+12.6%) on Tapeta
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 27pts (+207.4%) with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 40.6pts (+368.6%) wearing no headgear
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 46.9pts (+938%) after 10 or fewer days rest.

He is trained by Sam England, who is 7 from 21 (33.3% SR) for 35.9pts (+170.5% ROI) since the start of 2016 when her only runner at a track was a handicapper sent off at odds of 5/1 and shorter...

...whilst in that same 2016-19 time frame, her handicappers sent off at Evens to 7/1, 6 to 14 days after a top 3 finish are 13/37 (35.1%) for 20.7pts (+56%), including...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.58pts (+135.8%) beaten by a neck to 2 lengths LTO
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 17.25pts (+191.7%) were 3rd LTO
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.6pts (+280%) on the all-weather...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 4/1 as was available from Betfair, Betfred, Hills, Paddy Power & Totesport (all non-BOG until the morning) at 6.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th April 2019

Thursday's pick was...

5.05 Wetherby : Fingerontheswitch @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up, headway chasing leaders 7th, 3rd and one pace from 4 out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.35 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hooflepuff @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1on Polytrack ground worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 3 yr old Colt might well be 0 from 4 so far, but the margin of defeat has been reduced on each occasion and he made the frame for the first time last time out. In that contest, he was beaten by three lengths, finishing third here over this course and distance 30 days ago on handicap debut despite coming off a 10-week lay off.

Luke Morris was riding him for the first time that day and he keeps the ride today. The horse should come on for having had the run last time out and with a 1lb drop in the weights, he should go well again today for trainer Robert Cowell.

And it's this hoped-for benefit of a previous run which attracted me to the horse because...

...Robert Cowell + A/W handicaps + runners with just one hcp run in the previous 90 days + odds shorter than 5/1 = 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 13.71pts (+85.7% ROI) and whilst that's not the biggest sample size I've ever used for SotD, the following subsets of data suggest this isn't just a lucky coincidence, as from those 16 runners...

  • males are 7/15 (46.7%) for 10.59pts (+70.6%)
  • those beaten by more than a length LTO are 5/7 (71.4%) for 11.98pts (+171.1%)
  • those last seen 21-60 days ago are 4/7 (57.1%) for 10.39pts (+148.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 8.87pts (+147.8%)
  • Class 6 runners are 2/4 (50%) for 2.64pts (+65.9%)
  • those ridden by Luke Morris are 1/2 (50%) for 4.31pts (+215.5%)
  • and those racing here at Kempton are 1/1 (100%) for 3.44pts (+344%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hooflepuff @ 10/3 BOG which was widely available at 11.55pm on Thursday (6.55pm here),. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 31st May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

8.10 Ripon : Pipers Note @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Towards rear, switched right and headway over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, edged right, unable to trouble winner)

We end a difficult month via Thursday's...

7.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Codicil @ 13/2 BOG 

A 10-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Polytrack worth £19407 to the winner... 

Why?

A seasonal re-appearance for this 3 yr old filly some 265 days after completing a perfect 4 from 4 season as a 2yr old, which included...

  • 4/4 under today's jockey Luke Morris
  • 2/2 over a mile
  • 2/2 on the A/W
  • 1/1 at Class 2
  • 1/1 over a mile on A/W
  • and 1/1 at Class 2 over a mile on A/W

She's trained by Sir Mark Prescott who has had 102 winners from 516 (19.8% SR) runners on the A/W since the start of 2015 generating profits of 74.3pts at an ROI of 14.4%, including a 76 from 272 (27.9%) record in handicaps that has produced 155 pts (+57%) profit.

And from these 272 A/W handicappers...

  • those with 3 to 10 previous runs are 68/239 (28.5%) for 139.5pts (+58.4%)
  • those ridden by Luke Morris are 65/221 (29.4%) for 133.9pts (+60.6%)
  • 3 yr olds are 53/179 (29.6%) for 120pts (+67.1%)
  • on Polytrack : 44/160 (26.5%) for 61.3pts (+36.9%)
  • females are 31/120 (25.8%) for 101.7pts (+84.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 24/83 (28.9%) for 57.6pts (+69.4%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 18/66 (27.3%) for 18.9pts (+28.6%)
  • LTO winners are 22/63 (34.9%) for 8.9pts (+14.1%)
  • over trips of 7f to a mile : 17/63 (27%) for 63.4pts (+100.6%)
  • horses with a career strike rate of 33% or better are 18/46 (39.1%) for 17.9pts (+38.9%)
  • in May : 8/20 (40%) for 11.48pts (+57.4%)
  • and those returning from breaks of 8 to 12 months are 6/13 (46.2%) for 23.57pts at an ROI of some 181.3%

...all pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Codicil @ 13/2 BOG  which was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & Unibet at 5.10pm on Wednesday. To see what your referred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.45 Thirsk : Stonific @ 6/1 BOG (=5.4/1 after a 10p R4) WON at 11/4 (Mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, led 2f out, hard ridden when strongly challenged inside final furlong, held on gamely to win by a head)

We start a new week with Monday's...

2.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 5,  1m4f  A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, basically, he's a 5 yr old gelding in excellent form! Over the last seven months he has raced eight times, making the frame on every occasion and winning five times, including last time out twelve days ago over this very course and distance. And although he does seem to be running consistently well, connections have been keen to protect him from overexertion, hence only 8 runs in that time, so he's hardly overdone.

He has a record on the A/W of 6 wins and 3 placed finished from 19 starts and amongst those 19 races, the following demonstrate his suitability for the task ahead...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Wolverhampton
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 7 when sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 within 15 days of his last run
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 7 with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 in fields of 12 to 15 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 5 over trips of 11 to 12 furlongs
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 wearing cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 at a mile and a half
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from just 3 efforts over course and distance

His trainer, Peter Hiatt, has been quiet of late, but still has three winners and a placer from the seven he has sent out over the last four weeks and the yard is 2 from 5 this month, whilst more long-term (and with this race as a point of context), his Class 5 to 7 handicappers racing over trips of 8.5f to 14f here at Wolverhampton are 17/128 (13.3% SR) for 43.9pts (+34% ROI) since 2009.

These are decent "niche numbers" for one of the smaller yards and with today's race conditions, those runners are...

  • 7 from 52 (13.5%) for 26.1pts (+50.2%) racing 6 to 15 days after their last run
  • 14 from 40 (35%) for 40.2pts (+100.5%) when sent off at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 6 from 36 (16.6%) for 46.9pts (+130.2%) on Tapeta
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & SunBets at 8.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

4.15 Yarmouth : Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Close up, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

We continue now with Wednesday's...

5.35 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 5,  7f Flat Handicap (3yo) on Good To Soft worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, I started with the racecard (usually a good place to start!) and the Geegeez pace/draw tabs give a good indication of how similar races to this one have played out in the past. I quickly saw that horses who like to lead were most successful and that horses drawn low fared best from that perspective.

So, back to the card itself and I see that not only is our girl drawn in stall 1, but she's the only one who likes to get on with it leading to the Pace Forecast to suggest that Probable Lone Speed would be the outcome today ie she might well get out fast and hope to hold on. Brighton is a tricky place to win from behind in such contests and there's every chance we could nick it from the front and with Luke Morris on board, I'm confident that he'll judge it best.

And now the numbers!

This 3 yr old filly is trained by Mark Johnston and is one of seven runners representing the yard today, but the only one to be sent on the long trip to Brighton, but that's not a worry to me, because Mark's runners here are 31/140 (22.1% SR) for 47.1pts (+33.6% ROI) since 2008. To show, I'm not leaning on old data, they were 7/19 (36.8%) for 4.6pts (+24.2%) last season.

Of those 140 Brighton runners, handicappers are 21/90 (23.3% SR) for 62.2pts (+69.1% ROI), from which...

  • 3 yr olds are 17/64 (26.6%) for 37.5pts (+58.5%)
  • those who last raced 1 to 4 weeks earlier : 17/62 (27.4%) for 70.6pts (+113.8%)
  • over the last 5 seasons : 13/53 (24.5%) for 15.7pts (+29.6%)
  • at SP odds of 6/4 to 11/2 : 14/51 (27.5%) for 10.24pts (+20.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/31 (19.4%) for 4.4pts (+14.1%)
  • yard's only runner at the track that day : 9/25 (36%) for 13.9pts (+55.6%)
  • and Luke Morris is 1/1 (100%) for 2.5pts (+250%)

Based on the above, you could concentrate on the following...last 5 seasons / 3 yr olds / Class 4+5 / SP odds of 6/4 to 8/1 and who last ran 1 to 4 weeks ago. Backing such runners stands at 10/22 (45.5% SR) for 29.8pts (+135.3% ROI)...

...whilst more generally over the last two years, Mark Johnston's runners on the Flat over trips of 6 to 7.5 furlongs on ground no worse than soft are 116/679 (17.1% SR) for 162pts (+23.9% ROI) profit, including...

  • those last seen 11-30 days earlier : 62/363 (17.1%) for 82.4pts (+22.7%)
  • females are 46/285 (16.1%) for 161.8pts (+56.8%)
  • Class 5 : 44/189 (23.3%) for 48pts (+25.4%)

AND... Class 5 females returning from a short 11-30 day break are 8/39 (20.5% SR) for 53.5pts (+137.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Tuesday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th April 2018

Monday's Runner was...

2.40 Kelso : Geronimo @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, ridden before 2 out, one pace in 4th between last 2, no impression until switched towards stands side rail and stayed on to chase winner inside final 110 yards, just held off by a neck)

We now continue with Tuesday's...

5.55 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Storm Over @ 10/3 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 3,  5f handicap sprint (4yo+) on good to soft ground worth £12938 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old colt has three wins and a place from his five starts to date, all at this minimum 5f trip and was a winner last time out at Class 2 on soft ground. He makes his seasonal re-appearance on better ground and benefits from a drop in class too. He's trained by Robert Cowell, whose LTO winners have struck again on 18 of 82 (22% SR) occasions over the last couple of years with profits of 24.5pts equating to some 29.9% of stakes invested, including...

  • over trips of 5/5.5f : 15/59 (25.4%) for 28.6pts (+48.4%)
  • in handicaps : 13/56 (23.2%) for 16.4pts (+29.3%)
  • on the Flat : 10/54 (18.5%) for 22.5pts (+41.7%)
  • ridden by Luke Morris : 4/16 (25%) for 9.54pts (+59.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 3/13 (23.1%) for 9.44pts (+72.6%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.6pts (+219.7%)

Now, I should point out that although our boy won last time out, it was admittedly almost 6 months ago and for some yards, that's an issue, but over the last five seasons, Robert Cowell's Flat handicappers returning from a break of 3 months or more are 11/64 (17.2% SR) for 66.4pts (+103.7% ROI), from which...

  • 3 to 6 yr olds are 11/59 (18.6%) for 71.4pts (+121%)
  • at Class 2 to 4 : 9/47 (19.1%) for 73.2pts (+155.6%)
  • after a break of 3 to 8 months : 9/49 (18.4%) for 69.4pts (+141.6%)
  • in April/May : 10/42 (23.8%) for 64.6pts (+153.8%)
  • over a 5f trip : 8/39 (20.5%) for 33.2pts (+85.1%)
  • LTO winners are 4/12 (33.7%) for 20.9ptrs (+174.2%)
  • and on good to soft: 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.75pts (+297.7%)

And from these well-rested flat handicappers, 3-6 yr olds at Class 2 to 4 in April/May after a 3 to 8 month absence are 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 65.4pts (+251.4%), including...

  • over 5f : 5/16 (31.25%) for 22.1pts (+138.4%)
  • LTO winners : 3/7 (42.9%) for 18.9pts (+269.8%)
  • on good to soft : 3/6 (50%) for 34.5pts (+575.3%)
  • LTO winners racing over 5f are 2/5 (40%) for 4.21pts (+84.2%)
  • over 5f on good to soft : 2/4 (50%) for 19.84pts (+496%)
  • and LTO winners racing over 5f on good to soft = 1/1 for 3.79pts

...giving us...a 1pt win bet oStorm Over @ 10/3 BOG which was available from 10Bet, Ladbrokes and SportPesa at 5.05pm on Monday, whilst bet365 were alone in offering 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st March 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

4.45 Wetherby : Instingtive @ 3/1 BOG  5th at 3/1 (Led, headed before 2 out, no extra from last)

Next up is Wednesday's...

8.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sparkalot @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 4, 6f handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old colt has hardly been overworked, with just six runs under his belt : 5 of them on the A/W here at Kempton over course and distance where his form reads 41171. Of those five runs over C&D, he is 171 at Class 4, with the only blemish coming when the track was deemed to be riding slow and he was coming off a 205 day absence, so I'm happy to forgive that one aberration.

He was a winner last time out almost six weeks despite hanging badly left late on, but the experience Luke Morris retains the ride and I trust work will have been done to "adjust the steering".

Trainer Simon Dow, like his runner here, hasn't exactly been over-active either, with just 27 runners over the last two months. That said 12 (44.4%) of the 27 have made the frame with 7 (25.9% SR) going on to win, returning level stakes profits of 7.28pts at an ROI of 27%, including 5 wins from 11 (45.5%) for 13.5pts (+122.9%) here at Kempton.

Whilst more generally/longer-term, Simon's handicappers with CD next to their names who were also winners (anywhere) last time oout are 7/36 (19.4% SR) for 13.57pts (+27.7% ROI) since 2012, from which...

  • on the A/W : 7/33 (21.2%) for 16.57pts (+50.2%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m : 7/31 (22.6%) for 18.57pts (+59.9%)
  • and over trips of 5f to 1m on the A/W : 7/28 (25%) for 21.57pts (+77%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Sparkalot @ 5/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, 10 Bet & Skybet at 5.35pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th December 2017

Friday's Result :

12.40 Sedgefield : Charmant @ 5/1 BOG WON at 11/8 Held up towards rear, smooth headway 3 out, chased leaders next, led on bit approaching last, shaken up, ran on strongly, winning by five lengths.

We wrap up a very successful week via Saturday's...

8.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hallstatt @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 6, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over 2m0.5f on Tapeta worth £2,749 to the winner...

This old boy might well be 11 yrs old now, but he's still running really well, as typified by finishes of 132 in his last three outings and was only beaten by a length at 20/1 over this course and distance last time out, 19 days ago.

He has 10 career wins to date, which have been achieved as follows under today's conditions...

  • all 10 going left handed, 8 off marks (OR) of 61-70, 8 wearing a tongue tie
  • 7 at Class 5/6, 6 within 16-30 days of his last run, 3 times at 2m/2m0.5f
  • twice under Luke Morris, twice here at Wolverhampton and twice this year.

His trainer, John Mackie is 5/27 (18.5% SR) for 38.1pts (+141% ROI) here at this track in 2017, and of those 27 runners...

  • handicappers are 4/25 (16%) for 31.9pts (+127.6%)
  • males are 5/21 (23.8%) for 44.1pts (+209.8%)
  • male handicappers are 4/19 (21.1%) for 37.9pts (+199.4%)
  • those who last ran 16-120 days ago : 5/14 (35.7%) for 51.1pts (+365%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 18.14pts (+129.6%) all in hcps
  • handicappers @ 16-120 dslr : 4/13 (30.8%) for 43.9pts (+337.6%)
  • those ridden by Luke Morris are 3/5 (60%) for 12.55pts (+251%)
  • handicappers ridden by Luke are 2/4 (50%) for 5.38pts (+134.5%)

AND...male C6 hcps @ 16-120 dslr under Luke Morris = 2/2 for 7.38pts and this fairly simple pared back approach...

...gives us... a 1pt win bet on Hallstatt @ 9/2 BOG which was offered by Hills, Betfair & Marathon at 7.40pm on Friday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th November 2017

Friday's Result :

6.15 Newcastle : Handsome Bob @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 15/8 Led, headed 5f out, prominent, pushed along 2f out, every chance over 1f out, ridden and kept on same pace .

Next up is Saturday's...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Berryessa @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+ A/W Handicap (Fillies) over 5f on Tapeta worth £3234 to the winner.

And a 3 yr old filly who was a course and distance winner last time out under today's jockey Luke Morris a week ago taking her record on the A/W to two wins and a place from four starts (2161).

All four runs have been over this 5f trip and that C&D win last week was her first run here and also her first under Luke Morris.

Her trainer Rae Guest is enjoying some decent results of late, with 3 winners from 7 in the past fortnight and 2 from 5 over the last seven days, whilst in A/W handicaps at odds of 6/4 to 6/1, his runners are 21/76 (27.6% SR) for 25.2pts (+33.1% ROI) since 2011, with the following of particular relevance today...

  • females are 16/62 (25.8%) for 17.58pts (+28.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 15/49 (30.6%) for 23.3pts (+47.5%)
  • after less than 3 weeks rest = 10/30 (33/3%) for 19.55pts (+65.2%)
  • LTO winners are 9/27 (33.3%) for 11.56pts (+42.8%)
  • at Class 5 = 11/26 (42.3%) for 22.93pts (+88.2%)
  • here at Wolverhampton = 5/20 (25%) for 1.86pts (+9.3%)
  • on Tapeta = 5/16 (31.25%) for 5.76pts (+36%)
  • over 5 furlongs = 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.19pts (+68.3%)
  • in November = 4/11 (36.4%) for 10.95pts (+99.5%)
  • and those ridden by Luke Morris are 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.2pts (+90%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Berryessa @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Friday. Those able to take the 4/1 BOG offered by Bet365 should do so and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.40 Lingfield : Short Work @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 11/2 Prominent on outside, ridden and not quicken over 1f out, weakened final 100 yards

Next up is Wednesday's...

4.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roman Spinner @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 5, 2yo A/W Nursery over 7f on Polytrack worth £2,588 to the winner.

A 2 yr old filly in decent nick, having finished 122 in her last three outings, beaten by two lengths in a Class 3 contest last time out seven weeks, now drops down to Class 6!

Trainer Rae Guest + A/W handicappers + odds of 6/4 to 10/1 from 2010-17 = 26/126 (20.6% SR) for 39.2pts (+31.1% ROI), from which...

  • females are 20/100 (20%) for 32.1pts (+32.1%)
  • on Polytrack : 19/93 (20.4%) for 31.5pts (+33.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 9/45 (20%) for 7pts (+15.6%)
  • here at Kempton : 8/43 (18.6%) for 2.61pts (+6.1%)
  • after a break of 31 to 60 days : 10/33 (30.3%) for 34.5pts (+104.6%)
  • over 7f : 8/27 (29.6%) for 28pts (+103.6%)
  • in November : 4/12 (33.3%) for 17.8pts (+148.5%)
  • ridden by Luke Morris : 3/9 (33.3%) for 14.1pts (+156.4%)
  • 2 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 11.37pts (+189.6%)

Also since 2010, Rae's handicap class droppers are 29/181 (16% SR) for 126.5pts (+69.9%), including...

  • females : 24/146 (16.4%) for 121.4pts (+83.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 12/74 (16.2%) for 41.4pts (+56%)
  • over 7f : 5/32 (15.6%) for 31.6pts (+98.9%)

And finally since 2010, 2yr olds sired by Intikhab running in a Nursery are 24/97 (24.7% SR) for 178.3pts (+183.9%) and these runners include...

  • females : 9/51 (17.7%) for 94.8pts (+185.8%)
  • on the A/W : 12/50 (24%) for 115.7pts (+231.4%)
  • on Polytrack : 11/43 (25.6%) for 119.9pts (+278.8%)
  • at Class 6 : 7/35 (20%) for 108.3pts (+309.4%)
  • over 7f : 5/34 (14.7%) for 37.3pts (+109.6%)
  • here at Kempton : 4/19 (21.1%) for 36.3pts (+191.1%)
  • and in November : 5/17 (29.4%) for 32.9pts (+195.2%)

...giving us ... a 1pt win bet on Roman Spinner @ 7/2 BOG which was generally available at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!