Tag Archives: Ludlow racecourse

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.55 Catterick : Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Led until slow 5th, soon ridden, led 8th, headed before 3 out, one pace)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2,05 Ludlow:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on soft ground worth £16,458 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, we're with the Skeltons today and their 6 yr old gelding who was won 7 of his last 10 outings and is 9 from 20 in his entire career, including 3 from 5 over fences and...

  • 8 from 16 with Harry in the saddle
  • 8 from 10 in fields of 3-8 runners
  • 7 from 16 over trips shorter than 2m1f
  • and 7 from 13 at 11-35 days since last run.

He has won on soft ground and also over course and distance and in fact won on soft over C&D last time out, when comfortably clear by nine lengths! And referring back to the above numbers, he is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 3.62pts (+60.4% ROI) when Harry rides him in fields of 3-8 runners over trips shorter than 2m1f at 11-35 dslr.

Both Harry and trainer Dan have good records here at Ludlow, but (a) that's fairly common knowledge and (b) it's actually highlighted on your race card via the green C1 and C5 icons, so I won't go there today.

Instead I'm going to focus on the fact that since 2014, Dan's former C&D winners sent off within 45 days of an LTO win anywhere are 19 from 41 (46.3% SR) for 11.23pts (+27.4% ROI) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, from which, they are...

  • 19/38 (50%) for 14.23pts (+37.5%) with Harry in the saddle
  • 18/34 (52.9%) for 17.08pts (+50.2%) who won over C&D LTO
  • 16/28 (57.1%) for 10.75pts (+38.4%) since the start of 2017
  • 16/26 (61.5%) for 21.01pts (+80.8%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 11/25 (44%) for 10.67pts (+42.7%) in handicaps
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 7.9pts (+56.4%) over fences
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 2.46pts (+22.4%) stepping up a class
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.61pts (+108.7%) on soft ground...

...whilst when Harry has ridden the 5-7 yr old LTO C&D winners from above since the start of 2017, they are 13/16 (81.25% SR) for 17.53pts (+109.6% ROI) and these include 8 from 10 in handicaps, 8 from 8 over fences, 4 from 5 stepping up a class, 4 from 4 in handicap chases and 2 from 2 on soft ground...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Unibet at 5.25pm on Monday. Do use BOG if possible, as this one might drift a little, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

5.15 Brighton : Toni's A Star @ 7/1 8th at 5/1 (Chased leader until over 1f out, chased leaders, weakened final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Misty Bloom @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over f on Good ground worth £7,213 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare has run consistently well over hurdles, making the frame in 8 of 10 starts, winning three times. She won last time out 16 days ago, despite coming back from 22 weeks off the track and she has 3 wins and 2 places from 7 in handicaps, 2 wins and 2 places from 5 under today's jockey Adam Wedge and 2 wins and a place from 3 starts in handicaps under Mr Wedge.

Her trainer, Emma Lavelle, is 32 from 133 (24.1% SR) for 89.4pts (+67.2% ROI) in Class 3-5 NH handicaps during July to January with horses who have had 10 or fewer previous handicap outing and these include...

  • 17/73 (23.3%) for 52.6pts (+72%) over hurdles
  • 16/72 (22.2%) for 53.4pts (+74.2%) at Class 3
  • 13/50 (26%) for 28.9pts (+57.8%) with 6 yr olds
  • 13/44 (29.6%) for 40.4pts (+91.8%) during October & November
  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 50pts (+156.2%) with Adam Wedge in the saddle
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 28.8pts (+119.9%) with LTO winners
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 15.4pts (+69.9%) this year
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 7.28pts (+145.6%) here at Ludlow...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Misty Bloom @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.40pm on Tuesday whilst Betfair/PP were half a point bigger, but won'y go BOG until tomorrow. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.20 Wolverhampton : Evolutionary @ 11/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Led, ridden and headed just over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lissycasey @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m5½f ongood ground worth £4938 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, at first glance, you'd be forgiven for thinking I'd got jet lag from the annoyingly expensively delayed flight back from the USA by picking a 6yr old gelding with a 0 from 10 record over hurdles, beaten by a combined 108 lengths by finishing 10th of 14 in each of his last three outings, the last over this very course and distance!

So, that's the elephant in the room dealt with, nobody can accuse me of not mentioning stats that don't back up the selection!

He has however moved yards and now makes a debut for Kim Bailey, who has an excellent record at this venue, as does today's jockey David Bass. No disrespect intended to previous trainer/jockeys, but I'd expect this pair to get more out of a horse who is potentially very well treated based on past efforts. In fact he was placed twice around this time last year, so maybe April is his time and he's now running off a mark today of 106 as opposed to 115 & 117 on those two efforts last year.

Stat-wise, I'll keep it pretty simple with an age old formula of trainer + venue =  recent winners + profit as Kim Bailey + Ludlow + 2013-19 = 24 from 123 (19.5% SR) for 34pts (+27.7% ROI) profit, from which there are a stack of viable angles at play today, but here are some of the more obvious ones...

  • 21 from 74 (28.4%) for 71.4pts (+96.5%) from 4-6 yr olds
  • 21/79 (26.6%) for 71.5pts (+90.5%) over trips of 2m-2m6f
  • 19/56 (33.9%) for 22.7pts (+40.6%) at ISPs of 5/1 and shorter
  • 18/59 (30.5%) for 33.1pts (+56.1%) with David Bass in the saddle
  • 17/48 (35.4%) for 66.5pts (+138.5%) on Good ground
  • 16/73 (21.9%) for 37.4pts (+51.2%) after a break of 21-180 days
  • 14/70 (20%) for 22.7pts (+32.4%) at Class 4
  • 14/73 (19.2%) for 28pts (+38.3%) over hurdles
  • 10/37 (27%) for 35.6pts (+96.3%) in Novice races
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 37.8pts (+135.1%) in Novice Hurdles
  • and 7 from 20 (35%) for 31.6pts (+158%) in April...

...whilst from the above...Kim Bailey + David Bass + 2m-2m6f + 4-6 yr olds + 5/1 max = 13 from 18 (72.2% SR) for 37pts (+205.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Lissycasey @ 9/2 BOG which was available from BetVictor & Sky Bet at 10.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 20th February 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

3.45 Taunton : Orchardstown Cross @ 3/1 BOG WON at 6/4 (Mistake 1st, held up behind, headway and in touch 10th, went 2nd before 4 out, led after next, driven clear after 2 out, stayed on well, comfortably clear by 8 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Flashing Glance 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, Handicap Hurdle over 2m on good ground, worth £6563 to the winner... 

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is a former course and distance winner and comes here off the back of a decent run at Cheltenham 25 days ago, when third in a higher grade of contest than this one he faces today.

His trainer, Tom Lacey, has hit the ground running after the resumption of racing last week landing 4 wins from 10 runners (40% SR) for level stakes profits of 4.12pts (+41.2% ROI) for his followers. Amongst those 10 runners, hurdlers are 3 from 6, handicappers 2 from 5 and handicap hurdlers winning 2 of 3.

And it's with Tom Lacey we stay for our main chunk of data, as since the start of 2016, his hurdlers are profitable to backed blindly at 63 from 274 (23% SR) for 236pts (+86.1% ROI) and these impressive figures include the following of relevance today...

  • males are 45/206 (21.8%) for 193.7pts (+94%)
  • handicappers are 40/150 (26.7%) for 121pts (+80.7%)
  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 24/78 (30.8%) for 116.6pts (+149.4%)
  • those ridden by Richard Johnson are 19/65 (29.2%) for 79.9pts (+123%)
  • over this 2m trip : 10/50 (20%) for 70.1pts (+140.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/42 (21.4%) for 38.2pts (+90.9%)
  • those dropping down a class are 10/23 (43.5%) for 58pts (+252.4%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 3/13 (23.1%) for 4.8pts (+36.9%)

...and male handicappers placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 10/33 (30.3% SR) for 48pts (+145.5% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Flashing Glance 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2019

Wednesday's Pick was...

6.15 Newcastle : Chosen World @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, effort over 2f out, ridden and lost place over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sliding Doors @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+  Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Good To Soft worth £6563 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is trained by Ian Williams and my starting point today is the simple fact that over the last two years, blindly backing Ian's NH runners has been a profitable venture with 70 winners from 472 runners (14.8% SR) producing profits of 190pts at a cracking ROI of some 40.3%.

Of those 472 runners...

  • hurdlers are 47/311 (15.1%) for 242.5pts (+78%)
  • over trips of 2m4f to 3m0.5f : 37/203 (18.2%) for 62.6pts (+30.8%)
  • hurdlers over trips of 2m4f to 3m0.5f : 21/124 (16.9%) for 64.2pts (+51.7%)
  • whilst those running on good to soft are 15/116 (12.9%) for 206.9pts (+178.3%)

Aside from those excellent general recent stats, Ian's record here at Ludlow has been consistently good for several years now and an angle I like is the one that shows that the market is a decent judge of his runners, as over the last 6 years those sent off at odds of 7/1 or shorter have won 14 of 41 (34.2% SR) for 16.7pts (+40.7% ROI) profit, from which...

  • males : 13/37 (35.1%) for 18.3pts (+49.4%)
  • hurdlers : 10/24 (41.7%) for 14pts (+58.2%)
  • handicappers : 7/28 (25%) for 7.56pts (+27%)
  • 15-49 dslr : 10/22 (45.5%) for 22.3pts (+101.1%)
  • hcp hurdlers : 4/13 (30.8%) for 6.68pts (+51.4%)
  • 6 yr olds : 4/10 (40%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%)
  • and male hcp hurdlers : 3/10 (30%) for 7.26pts (+72.6%)

...pointing to a 1pt win bet on Sliding Doors @ 7/2 BOG as was available from at least a dozen firms at 5.10pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

12.50 Lingfield : Wotadoll @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (In touch, headway over 1f out, ran on to lead closing stages, ridden out to win by half a length)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sumkindofking @ 11/4 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good To Soft worth £12086 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding made the switch to the bigger obstacles 7 months ago and has made the frame in 6 of 7 efforts so far, winning twice. His best performance was arguably at Wincanton last time out when a runner-up by just 2.5 lengths in a Listed race. There was no disgrace in the defeat 25 days ago, as he went down to a Paul Nicholls-trained favourite (we know how well they do!) with previous winning form at Gr2 and he was 11 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

Stat-wise, I'll be keeping it relatively simple today, focusing on trainer Tom George, whose runners are 4 from 19 (21.05% SR) over the last fortnight, but more pertinently are 16 from 40 (40% SR) for 26.88pts (+67.2% ROI) in chases here at Ludlow when sent off at 5/1 or shorter since the start of 2013 and these include of relevance today...

  • males @ 16/39 (41%) for 27.88pts (+71.5%)
  • in hcps : 15/38 (39.5%) for 26.75pts (+70.4%)
  • within 2 months of last run : 12/33 (36.4%) for 18.82pts (+57%)
  • November to April = 15/32 (46.9%) for 32.99pts (+103.1%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/31 (41.9%) for 27.51pts (+88.7%)
  • and 5-7 yr olds are 12/25 (48%) for 25.58pts (+102.3%)

And a composite from the above?

In Class 3 handicaps during December to April, 5-7 yr old males rested for less than 7 weeks are 8 from 12 (66.6% SR) for 25.17pts (+209.7% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sumkindofking @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th October 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.00 Catterick : Chitra @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leader, ridden to challenge over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, just held near finish by a short head)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Excellent Team @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good To Firm ground worth £6563 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding's record of 3 wins and a place from 22 starts in handicap hurdle contests isn't admittedly the best, but he did win this contest last year off the same mark (108) as this year under the same jockey, Bridget Andrews, who claims a 3lb allowance. And like last year he reappears 12 days after a defeat at Worcester on softer ground than this contest.

Whilst that 3+1/22 record isn't amazing, it does look better under today's conditions, where he is...

  • 3+1 from 12 off a mark of 101 to 110
  • 2+ 1 from 10 over this 2m trip
  • 2 from 5 on good to firm ground
  • 2 from 5 racing 8 to 12 days after his last run
  • 1 from 4 at Ludlow
  • 1 from 4 over course and distance

He's trainer Dan Skelton's only runner at this track today and since 2014, Dan's Class 4 hurdlers have won 16 of 54 (29.6% SR) for 13.7pts (+25.4% ROI) here at Ludlow and these include...

  • males at 12/41 (29.3%) for 13.66pts (+33.3%)
  • at 10/1 and shorter : 16/39 (41%) for 28.7pts (+73.6%)
  • over 1m7.5f/2m : 10/36 (27.8%) for 8.06pts (+22.4%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 13/34 (38.2%) for 23.61pts (+69.5%)
  • in handicaps : 5/15 (3.3%) for 8.34pts (+55.6%)
  • off a mark of 105-115 : 5/8 (62.5%) for 13.47pts (+168.4%)
  • runner-up LTO : 5/7 (71.4%) for 6.05pts (+86.4%)
  • in October : 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.29pts (+104.8%)
  • and his only runner at the track : 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.36pts (+378.7%)

And from the above...males racing over 1m7.5f/2m at odds of 10/1 and shorter some 11-45 days after their last run are 9 from 17 (52.9% SR) for 25.4pts (+149.4% ROI) including Excellent Team's win in this race last year.

I do like to look for in-form course and distance winners, because since the start of 2013 in handicap hurdles, horses with the little CD logo next to their name who either won or lost by no more than 2 lengths LTO are 254 from 1126 (22.6% SR) for 220.2pts (+19.6% ROI), from which of note today...

  • 11-60 days since last run : 184/840 (21.9%) for 178.2pts (+21.2%)
  • runner-up LTO : 39/152 (25.7%) for 85.3pts (+56.1%)
  • runners-up 11-25 days earlier are 17/63 (27%) for 44.4pts (+70.4%)
  • here at Ludlow : 10/27 (37%) for 37.1pts (+137.3%)
  • and at Ludlow 11-20 days after their last run : 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.05pts (+122.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Excellent Team @ 3/1 BOG, a price widely available from 6.30pm on Tuesday evening.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

8.15 Kempton : Sparkalot @ 5/2 BOG WON at 11/10 (Chased leaders, driven over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on to win by half a length)

Next up is Thursday's...

5.15 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Flashing Glance @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 3, 2m handicap hurdle (4yo+) on soft ground worth £7,863 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has made the frame in each of his last three starts, winning once and was third last time out on handicap debut in a higher grade. He has rested over the winter and a second crack at a handicap at a lower grade might just do the trick today.

Trainer Tom Lacey has saddled four winners from just seven runners over the last fortnight, whilst since the start of 2016, his NH handicappers are 31/118 (26.3% SR) for 84.3pts (+71.% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant and applicable today...

  • November-April : 28/97 (28.9%) for 91.4pts (+94.2%)
  • hurdlers : 24/90 (26.7%) for 83.6pts (+92.9%)
  • top 3 finisher LTO : 21/69 (30.4%) for 62.3pts (+90.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/47 (29.8%) for 57.7pts (+122.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 14/45 (31.1%) for 67pts (+148.9%)
  • at Class 3 : 6/36 (16.7%) for 23.8pts (+66%)
  • late season (ie Mar-Apr) : 9/25 (36%) for 16.8pts (+67.1%)
  • ridden by Robert Dunne : 8/23 (34.8%) for 35.8pts (+155.4%)
  • placed 3rd LTO : 5/15 933.3%) for 24.1pts (+160.6%)
  • down 1 class : 5/11 945.5%) for 24.1pts (+219.3%)
  • 4 to 10 months off track : 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.4pts (+105.7%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 1/1 (100%) for 1.79pts (+179%)

A secondary layer of reassurance comes from the fact that also since the start of 2016, handicap jumpers sired by Passing Glance are 8 from 49 (16.3% SR) for 26pts (+53% ROI) on soft or worse ground, including...

  • males at 8/38 (21.1%) for 37pts (+97.2%)
  • on Soft : 7/32 (21.9%) for 8.7pts (+27.2%)
  • males on Soft : 7/24 (29.2%) for 16.7pts (+69.6%)
  • Class 3 : 2/9 (22.2%) for 2.35pts (+26.1%)
  • and Class 3 males on Soft are 2/5 (40%) for 6.35pts (+127%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Flashing Glance @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power (the first two to show) at 5.25pm on Wednesday, with some 6/1 BOG offered by Bet365 for those lucky/quick enough to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st February 2018

Tuesday's Result :

4.40 Wetherby : Lunar Flow @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 9/4 Led to 2nd, led again before 5th, headed 5th, weakened after 5 out...

Next up is Wednesday's...

5.10 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

War Creation @ 9/4 BOG

A Class 4, 2m5.5f handicap hurdle on soft ground worth £5,263 to the winner and a shorter priced pick than I'm usually comfortable with...

Why?

Because it's pretty poor stuff out there and most of those that I like from stats angle are even shorter!

But the reasons why this one ticked some boxes begin with the excellent start she has made to her racing career, making the fame in four of six starts, picking up three wins along the way. Amongst those races so far, she is...

  • 3 from 4 in fields of 4-9 runners
  • 2 from 3 going right handed
  • 1 from 1 here at Ludlow
  • 1 from 1 on soft ground
  • 1 from 1 under today's jockey Ned Curtis

In fact, Ned was on board last time out, when she won at Haydock by six lengths 53 days ago over 2m3f on heavy ground at this grade, so stamina hopefully won't be her undoing.

That LTO win also qualifies her for one of my LTO winner micro-systems, whose rules/criteria seem more complicated in print than they are in practice, but here goes...

Class 2 to 5 handicap hurdle races over 3 miles or shorter / horses aged 5 to 11 yrs old / won a hcp hurdle LTO by 4 lengths or more and are now running under the following conditions : same class or up one grade from LTO / off a mark (OR) equal or up to 14lbs higher than LTO and at a trip ranging from 4.5f shorter to 3.5f longer than LTO.

Since the start of 2013, we've had 987 qualifiers fitting the above criteria, so it's a decent sample size that has yielded 303 winners (30.7% SR) for profits of 341.7pts at an ROI of 34.6% and include of relevance today...

  • same class as LTO : 194/565 (34.3%) for 194.72pts (+34.5%)
  • won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO : 139/451 (30.8%) for 193.17pts (+42.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 138/439 (31.4%) for 118.75pts (+27.1%)
  • 6 yr olds are 81/277 (29.2%) for 55.5pts (+20.1%)
  • on Soft ground : 73/246 (29.7%) for 74.76pts (+30.4%)
  • in Feb/March : 60/207 (29%) for 93.45pts (+45.1%)
  • up in trip by 1.5f to 3.5f : 59/187 (31.6%) for 90pts (+48.1%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 12/28 (42.9%) for 10.77pts (+38.5%)

I think most people are aware of trainer Nicky Henderson's decent record here at Ludlow in the last few years (his hurdlers are 21 from 64 here since 2013), so I'm not going to bore you with those details, but I'm going to end with a quick note (or two!) about War Creation's father, Scorpion, whose offspring are 13 from 75 (17.3% SR) for 134.75pts (+179.7% ROI) in handicap jumps races on soft ground or worse since the start of 2017.

Those figures don't actually include Tuesday's results where one of his three progeny running went and won at 10/1 (Hoo Bally Diva at Taunton), but do contain the following...

  • over trips of 2m to 2m5.5f : 12/51 (23.5%) for 154.91pts (+303.8%)
  • on soft ground : 7/50 (14%) for 121.15pts (+242.3%)
  • over hurdles : 6/47 (12.8%) for 114.24pts (+243.1%)

AND...in soft ground handicap hurdles over 2m to 2m5.5f : 4/21 (19.1% SR) for 128.18pts (+610.4% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on War Creation @ 9/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, SkyBet and a couple of minor payers at 5.45pm onTuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th January 2018

Tuesday's Result :

1.45 Southwell : London @ 7/1 BOG WON at 7/1 Made all, ridden and ran on inside final furlong to win by a neck....

Next up is Wednesday's...

3.00 Ludlow:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tb Broke Her @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m2f on Good to Soft ground worth £6,888 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old mare having just her third run since moving to Matt Shepherd's yard, having made the frame in both starts for her new handler and ridden by today's jockey, Stan Shepherd (3) on each occasion. She was third here at Ludlow over an inadequately short 2m4f on yard debut, but followed that up with a win LTO, 25 days ago over 3m1f on soft ground.

She's understandably up in weight, but still receives 12 to 25lbs from each of her rivals today, which should help her to improve her trainer's 5 year record in handicap chases, which currently stands at 38 from 230 (16.5% SR) for 163.8pts (+71.2% ROI), including of note today...

  • 1-30 days since run : 26/149 (17.5%) for 140.5pts (+94.3%)
  • at Class 4 : 21/127 (16.5%) for 118.8pts (+93.5%)
  • on Good to Soft/Soft : 21/96 (21.9%) for 159.7pts (+166.4%)
  • ridden by Stan Shepherd : 15/92 (16.3%) for 37.4pts (+40.6%)
  • January to May : 26/90 (28.9%) for 132pts (+146.7%)
  • LTO winners : 10/33 (30.3%) for 28.8pts (+87.2%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 5/28 (17.9%) for 11.5pts (+41.2%)

...giving us...... a 1pt win bet on Tb Broke Her @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!