Tag Archives: Luca Cumani

Stat of the Day, 7th July 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.00 Haydock : La Celebs Ville @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 3/1 Tracked leaders, driven to challenge 2f out, weakened inside final furlong.

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.10 Doncaster...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pleasant Surprise3/1 BOG

Why?

A Class 4 handicap over a mile and a half for fillies aged 3 and over and we have a 3 yr old who was a winner over this trip two starts ago before being beaten into 5th place over 1m2f last time out.

That was 22 days ago and in her defence, it was a Listed race and she was far from disgraced. Now back up in trip and down in class for her handicap debut, I fancy her to get back to winning ways and she features in several of my micro-systems today, so I'll try and keep this brief!

Firstly we have trainer Luca Cumani and his record here on Town Moor : 36 winners from 136 (21.7% SR) for 27.3pts (+16.4% ROI) since 2008 and this includes of relevance today...

  • at trips of 7f and beyond : 36/126 (52.4%) for 37.3pts (+29.6%)
  • in handicaps : 24/105 (22.9%) for 33pts (+31.4%)
  • 21-45 days after their last outing : 24/84 (28.6%) for 45.2pts (+53.8%)
  • females are 18/54 (33.3%) for 40.7pts (+75.4%)
  • at Class 4 : 15/47 (31.9%) for 21pts (+44.7%)

AND...female handicappers at 7f and further, 21-45 days after their last run are 7 from 13 (53.9%) for 23.2pts (+178.1%) with class 4 runners winning 3 of 7.

More recently (ie since the start of 2015), when Mr Cumani has employed the talents of jockey Jamie Spencer here at Doncaster, the partnership has won 4 of 14 (28.6% SR) for 7.3pts at an ROI of 52.1% with handicappers winning 3 of 8 (37.5%) for 10.55pts (+131.9%)

And then we have the case of a handicap debut, since 2008 the 2-4 yr old Cumani handicap debutants are 66/281 (23.5% SR) for 118.7pts (+42.3% ROI) including...

  • those up in trip by a furlong or more are 34/140 (24.3%) for 58.9pts (+42.1%)
  • those racing over 10 to 12 furlongs are 35/136 (25.7%) for 54.4pts (+40%)
  • at Class 4 : 27/109 (24.8%) for 12.1pts (+11.1%)
  • 16-30 days since last run : 28/108 (25.9%) for 68.9pts (+63.8%)
  • those dropping in class are 16/46 (34.8%) for 61.3pts (+133.3%)
  • here at Doncaster : 8/17 (47.1%) for 31.2pts (+183.4%)
  • those who raced at Class 1 LTO are 4/16 (25%) for 23.7pts (+148%)
  • and those ridden by Jamie Spencer are 3/13 (23.1%) for 5pts at an ROI of 38.3%

There's quite a bit more to be honest, but I wouldn't want to bore you, so I'll call it a day here...

...with...a 1pt win bet on Pleasant Surprise @ 3/1 BOG which was on offer from Betfair, Coral, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power at 6.45pm on Thursday with plenty of acceptable 11/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Doncaster...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th October 2016

Monday's Result :

2.10 Pontefract : Mount Moriah @ 100/30 BOG WON at 100/30 (Tracked leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, hung badly right inside final furlong, all out)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cryptic at 5/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 year old filly is in sparkling form and comes here seeking a course and distance hat-trick just 14 days after a win that came 15 days after the opening win of the sequence.

She has won three of her nine A/W races to date, including the following...

  • 3 from 5 in fields of 11 or more runners
  • 3/4 going right handed
  • 3/4 here at Kempton
  • 2/4 11 to 15 days after her last run
  • 2/4 over the 1m trip
  • 2/3 over course and distance
  • 2/3 on standard to slow going
  • 2/2 under jockey Pat Cosgrave

...and she has the benefit of being trained by Luca Cumani, whose record here at Kempton, since the start of 2012, stands at 24 winners from 114 (21.1% SR) for profits of 123.6pts at an ROI of 108.5% and we can further assess those 114 runners as follows...

  • 3 yr olds are 17/74 (23%) for 37.1pts (+50.1%)
  • in handicaps : 12/63 (19.1%) for 36.5pts (+58%)
  • over the 1m trip : 8/37 (21.6%) for 31.6pts (+85.4%)
  • and those ridden by Pat Cosgrave are 3 from 3 for 8.05pts (+268.2%)

AND...3 yr olds in 1m handicaps are 4/12 (33.3% SR) for 23.78pts (+198.2%), with a record of 2 from 3 for 3.81pts (+126.9%) this year.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Cryptic at 5/2 BOG, from Betfair Sports, Betfred, BetVictor, Hills & Totesport who all offered the same price at 6.10pm on Monday night, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Kempton.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2015

Friday's Result :

3.30 Musselburgh : Kodicil @ 6/1 BOG : a 5/1 faller (Close up in 4th when fell 6th), but Coral have given us a free bet as part of their faller insurance.

Saturday's selection runs in the...

2.55 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blue Waltz @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old filly has won three times and finished as a runner-up on two occasions in her nine races so far. She's 3 from 3 going left handed and is 2 from 2 here at Doncaster, 2 from 2 over today's 1m2.5f trip and 2 from over course and distance as a result. Throw in a 1 from 1 return on soft ground and you've got the ideal race for her.

She's trained by the great Luca Cumani who has a record better than one in five on Town Moor with 33 winners from 155 (21.3% SR) Doncaster runners since the start of 2008 that have produced level stakes profits of 29.5pts at an ROI of 19.1%, but with today's contest to consider, those 155 runners are...

  • 29/117 (24.8% SR) for 60.1pts (+51.4% ROI) at odds of 11/8 to 10/1
  • 23/74 (31.1% SR) for 50.8pts (+68.6% ROI) when running 21 to 45 days after their last run
  • 15/49 (30.6% SR) for 36.8pts (+75.2% ROI) from female runners
  • 14/48 (29.2% SR) for 44.1pts (+91.8% ROI) over today's 1m 2.5f trip.
  • 12/48 (25% SR) for 36.4pts (+75.9% ROI) with 4 yr olds
  • 9/35 (25.7% SR) for 19.7pts (+56.3% ROI) in female only races
  • 3/12 (25% SR) for 9.9pts (+82.5% ROI) at Class 1.

And since 2008, Luca Cumani's 3/4 yr old runners, priced at 10/1 or shorter, tackling Doncaster over trips of 7 to 14.5 furlongs, 21 to 45 days after their last outing are 22/51 (43.1% SR) for profits of 70.4pts (+138% ROI).

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Blue Waltz at 5/1 BOG with any one of nine firms matching those odds . I've used Coral for my bet because I've got a free token from yesterday's SotD faller to us up, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 31st October 2015

Stat of the Day, 31st October 2015

Friday's Result :

1.50 Uttoxeter : Out of the Mist @ 3/1 BOG : WON at 11/4 (Mid-division, mistake 2nd, headway before 6th, challenged 2 out, led before last, stayed on well)

Saturday's selection runs in the...

1.35 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Banksea @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Luca Cumani's horses are finishing the season well with 14 wins from 49 (28.6% SR) for 70.6pts (+144.1% ROI) profit and gives a handicap debut to a horse that was a 33/1 winner on debut at Yarmouth last time out, a little over 6 weeks ago.

And since 2009, Luca's Flat handicap debutants have won 41 of 165 (24.9% SR) for 61.3pts (+37.2% ROI), and with today's race in mind...

  • runners over 7f to 1m4f are 41/154 (26.6% SR) for 72.3pts (+47% ROI)
  • those priced 6/4 to 12/1 are 38/146 (26% SR) for 73.3pts (+50.2% ROI)
  • those stepping up a class are 13/56 (23.2% SR) for 2.93pts (+5.24% ROI)
  • those stepped up by 2f are 10/30 (33.33% SR) for 16.1pts (53.7% ROI)
  • good to soft ground runners are 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 24.4pts (+128.4% ROI)
  • those ridden by Andrea Atzeni are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 14.4pts (+95.9% ROI)

I should also add that horses who won at odds of 25/1 and bigger last time out and now run at 8/1 or shorter in the same grade or up 1 class are 136/649 (21% SR) for 107.1pts (+16.5% ROI) since the start of 2010 with Flat handicap debutants winning 13 of 45 (28.9% SR) for 26pts (+57.7% ROI).

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Banksea at 11/4 BOG with either of Betfair Sports, Betfred, SkyBet and/or Totesport although the latter don't go BOG until the morning of the race. I've chosen to go with Betfair, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 1.35 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

SotD : Monday 01/06/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2015

We've averaged two winners every seven days in the 42 months or so since we (Matt and I, there's only two of us here!) started SotD and that basically means alongside making good profits, we do pick quite a few losers.

The good thing about the losers is that they generally provide us with a decent run for our money at a value price. There are, however, the odd one that runs like a pig and makes me look a bit silly afterwards. That, unfortunately, was the case on Saturday with Claret Cloak.

He was well fancied enough to be the 6/1 second favourite of 15 runners, but once headed 4 out, folded very tamely and regressed through the field, eventually finishing a well-beaten 12th of 15.

These things happen, though and now we move on to the first pick of a new week/month, which runs in the...

3.20 Leicester:

And goes by the name of Laurence, a lightly raced (4 starts so far) 3 yr old colt from the Luca Cumani yard.

Luca's record here at Leicester is excellent...

...with 19 winners from 77 runners (24.7% SR) since 2008, producing 38.2pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 49.6% with those priced at 9/1 or shorter winning 18 of 55 (32.7% SR) for 29.8pts (+54.1% ROI).

In handicap contests, Luca's had 11 winners from 33 here at Leicester with that 33.33% strike rate generating 35.1pts (+106.3% ROI) profit and at odds of 9/4 to 11/2, his 'cappers are 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 12.9pts (+76% ROI) here.

Laurence makes his handicap debut today...

...and Luca Cumani's record with 3 yr olds on handicap debut is 43/169 (25.4% SR) for 69.5pts (+41.1% ROI) since 2008, with a 2/6 for 4.27pts record here at Leicester. His handicap debutants priced at 10/1 and shorter are 42/149 (28.2% SR) for 68.5pts at an ROI of 46%.

He's also stepping up in trip...

...to 1m 2f from his win over a mile at HQ just over a fortnight ago, but the Cumani 3 yr old handicap debutants stepping up in trip by 1.5 to 2 furlongs have won 15 of 36 (41.7% SR) races for level stakes profits of 39.3pts (+109.2% ROI) and the way he swooped late staying to claim the win last time out suggests he wants further than a mile anyway, which should be a surprise as...

...he's a son of Dubawi...

...one of my current favourite sires and definitely one to follow, if you've not taken my previous hints already! Backing Dubawi's offspring is both simple and profitable to do.

Basically, if you'd backed all of them since the start of the 2010 campaign at odds of 20/1 or less, you'd have had 248 winners already from just 1361 bets, a strike rate of 18.2%. A £10 bet on each of them would have netted you a cool £1794 at an ROI of 13.2% from blind backing.

There are lots of ways of breaking down the data, but in flat handicaps over 7 to 12 furlongs at odds of 7/4 to 12/1, there were 86 winners from 457 (18.8% SR) for 174.6pts (+38.2% ROI) profit. Of which, 3yr olds are 61/281 (21.7% SR) for 190.7pts at an ROI of 67.9%.

This could turn out to be a decent contest, but the signs point to a big run from Laurence and I wouldn't be surprised if he goes off shorter than the 7/2 BOG I've just taken from Hills. The same price is also available from both Coral & Ladbrokes, but the latter won't go BOG until 9.00am on Monday.

As always, do check these bookies are still the best priced, before placing your bet and you can do this by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 25th April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th April 2015

Hmmmm, for the second day running, our horse finished third, wasn't beaten by far and I wasn't 100% happy with the jockey's performance. For recent recruits to the SotD cause, I must stress this isn't me talking through my pocket : it's very rare that I'm critical of the lads who risk their necks every day.

Son of Suzie proved he gets 3m3f despite being outpaced in the mid-section of the race and was staying on stoutly from the penultimate hurdle, quickly making ground on the leading pair. The leaders were clearly tiring and wandering around and for some inexplicable reason, our jockey decided to steer to the right and straight into trafiic.

Momentum was lost as he was snatched up and switched back out towards the rail, where he should have gone initially. Did it cost us the race? Possibly. We'll never know, but he was beaten by less than 2 lengths, so draw your own conclusions.

Saturday is my last pick of the week and I've selected one in the...

7.30 Doncaster:

Where Luca Cumani drops Ajman Bridge down in class for the Class 3, 10.5f handicap as his reintroduction to racing after a break of some eight months since he was last seen at York. And those, like me, who want to back him can do so at 7/2 BOG with the Betfair Sportsbook.

Signor Cumani has an excellent record here on Town Moor and since 2008, 29 of his 136 runners (21.3% SR) have been winning, generating level stakes profits of 27.8pts at an ROI of 20.4%. These figures can be broken down as follows (in order of sample size)...

Running over 7 to 14.5 furlongs : 26/129 = 23% SR for 37.8pts (+30% ROI)
Priced at 6/4 to 10/1 : 26/102 = 25.5% SR for 56.3pts (+55.2% ROI)
Handicap runners : 21/88 = 23.8% SR for 33.5pts (+38% ROI)
Class 3/4 runners : 19/60 = 31.7% SR for 42.2pts (+70.4% ROI).

So, as you can see, plenty of profitable Cumani angles here at Donny. You can mix and match to your heart's content, but one simple way is to put them all together to see that in 7f to 14.5f handicaps at 10/1 or shorter, the record reads 21/73 (28.8% SR) for 48.5pts (+66.4% ROI) and at Class 3/4 level 17/40 (42.5% SR) for 53.9pts (+134.8% ROI).

Luca is also very good at dropping horses down in grade to eke more out of them and his class droppers are 34/126 (27% SR) for 94.8pts (+75.3% ROI) since the start of 2010.

Those dropping down to today's Class 3 level are 9/34 (26.5% SR) for 33.1 pts (+97.3% ROI), whilst those priced at 7/1 or shorter are 30/89 (33.7% SR) for 62.6pts (+70.3% ROI).

When I was collating the figures about class droppers, something came to me. It might already be out there, so forgive me if this isn't new to you, but with Ajman Bridge's 8 month layoff in mind, I began to wonder if certain trainers did well with horses dropping in class off the back of a long break. That's now my home work for Sunday!

But I can tell you that when Luca Cumani has dropped a horse in class after a break of over 6 months, 7 of 15 (46.7% SR) have won and have also made 46.3pts profit at an ROI of 308.4%. Hmmm, interesting!

Regular readers will also know that I do like to keep an eye on certain stallions and their progeny and Ajman Bridge is by Dubawi, one of my Flat/All-Weather staples. I like to find trainers or stallions I can back blindly and make money without taxing the brain too much: the old maximum reward for minimum effort scenario.

Anyway I digress, back to Dubawi... 562 /3290 are the figures from his offspring to date, an impressive 17.1% strike rate yielding 544.6pts profit at a ROI of 16.6%. That's basically £1 profit from every £6 wagered, just for looking for the name Dubawi! Here at Doncaster, his "babies" are 16/94 (17% SR) for 24.4pts (+26% ROI) whilst on the Flat in general they are 340/2161 (15.7% SR) for 430.2pts (+19.9% ROI)

With such a massive sample size, you could spend hours (trust me! 😀 ) looking at/for angles, so I'll leave you with a simple one...

...back all Dubawi offspring priced at 2/1 to 12/1 in Flat handicaps over trips of 1 to 2 miles. This has produced 94 winners from 498 runners, an 18.9% strike rate producing 178.6pts (+35.9% ROI) profits.

Betfair Sportsbook are currently best priced with 7/2 BOG about Ajman Bridge with Ladbrokes also offering the same, but they don't go BOG until 9.00am. You can see if that's still the case by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.30 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2014

I was slightly worried that Midnight Lira might need a run after a six month absence from the track and so it proved to be the case. She was three lengths clear over the last fence, but the line couldn't and wouldn't come quick enough for her and she was eventually overhauled with the post in sight, going down by half a length to the well fancied Jewellery.

Our selection had drifted out from our advised 13/2 BOG to a tasty 9/1 at the off, which would have given us a nice payout had she held on, but thankfully I'd gone E/W due those fears about rustiness and that meant we made a small (0.63pts) profit on the day to keep the scoreboard moving for the month.

October is generally attritional with some strange results, but we keep on plugging away and Wednesday takes us to HQ for the...

2.00 Newmarket:

Where I'm hoping that Coral have got it all wrong by pricing Luca Cumani's Handicap/Nursery debutant Yorkshire up at 8/1 BOG.

After 3 runs for Kevin Ryan, this is his debut for Mr Cumani...

Luca has a decent record taking horses from other yards and getting them to run well first time out. Since 2008, he has given a yard debut to 22 horses coming to him with three to ten previous starts under their belts and with 11 of them going on to win at the first time of asking, that 50% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 31.9pts at an ROI of 145%.

E/W backers will be interested to learn that 14 of the 22 (63.6% SR) have been placed returning E/W profits of 22.2pts.

It's also Yorkshire's handicap debut...

Another area where Team Cumani excel. Since 2008, the yard has 45 winners from their 164 flat handicap debutants, an impressive 27.4% strike rate which has produced  81.5pts (+49.7% ROI) profit to date. At the lower end of the scale ie Classes 4 to 6 (Class 5 today!) that record improves to 34 winners from 112 (30.4% SR) for 72.1pts (+64.3% ROI) profit.

The horse steps up in trip by two furlongs...

Which might seem a bit of a niche area, but Luca tends to do this with his unexposed handicap runners. In the past few years he has asked 72 of unexposed handicappers (ie 2 or less hcp runs) to step up in trip by a full two furlongs from their last run. 22 of the 72 (30.6% SR) have gone on to win recording level stakes profits of some 40.3pts (+55.9% ROI along the way with those on handicap debut winning 13 of 35 contests (37.1% SR) for 29.1pts (+83.2% ROI).

Yorkshire also drops in class here...

And Mr Cumani's class droppers have won 29 of 102 races (28.4% SR) in the last five years with the resultant 66.4pts profit equating to over 65p in the pound from every bet placed. Those dropping to today's Class 5 level are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 20.3pts at an ROI of 119.3%.

And although it's a small sample size, Luca Cumani's record with flat handicap debutants dropping in class and stepping up in trip is 7 winners from 15 (46.7% SR) for profits of 26.7pts at an ROI of 177.8%.

There's not a great deal to tell you about the horse, himself, other than he showed little as a sprinter on two runs on good and good to firm ground, being outpaced on both occasions and finishing well down the field. But his best run came at Newcastle on good to soft ground over a 6f trip at a more leisurely pace, when he finished 3rd of 8 runners and it is hoped/expected that the soft ground will be even more to his liking today allied to the extra distance.

He might not seem a likely winner based on his past form, but the stats suggest this could well be the type of race he needs and I'm pretty confident that he'll at least run to a place. With that in mind and my overall feelings that 8/1 BOG is too long for this one, it's a 0.5pts E/W bet on Yorkshire with Coral. To see the full market positions for this race...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.00 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 11th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th September 2014

Nabucco wasn't beaten by far on Wednesday afternoon, but beaten he was and I'm still scratching about for a bit of form, as I'm 0/3 for the week, but we're still ahead for the month and it only takes one winner to get the ball rolling again.

The usual bit of housekeeping re: Nabucco is that he was 4th of 6, but only a length and a half off the winner in a tight finish. He was sent off at 2/1, so our 11/4 price represents 137.5% of SP and that is the key here.

It is, however, all well and good beating SP, but a winner would be nice and we stay at the Festival for another effort. This time, it's the

4.25 Doncaster:

And a 1pt win bet on Luca Cumani's handicap debutante, the 3yr old filly Blue Waltz at 3/1 BOG.

Luca Cumani has a good record here at Doncaster with 25 winners from his 121 runners (20.7% SR) on Town Moor since 2008. Those winners have, so far, generated 17.3pts profit at an ROI of 14.3%.

Closer inspection shows he fares better with his 3 yr olds, who have a record of 13 wins from 54 (24.1% SR) for 11pts (+20.4% ROI) profit with a 4/7 record this year. His 3yr old fillies have won 5 of 12 (41.7% SR) races in that same time, earning punters 10.5pts, or a return of 87.6% above stakes.

His turf handicap debutants also have a good general record in recent times and since 2009, 39 of 140 (27.9% SR) have won at the first time of asking, producing level stakes profits of 78.5pts (+56.1% ROI), with those sent off below 12/1 winning 39 of 129 (30.2% SR) for 89.5pts (+69.4% ROI).

His 3yr old handicap debutants are 31/106 (29.2% SR) for 45.2pts profit at an ROI of 42.6% and his females running in a handicap for the first time have won 18 of 48 races (37.5% SR) for 43.7pts (+91% ROI) profit.

It then becomes a given that his 3yr old females will be profitable on handicap debut and this is borne out by a record of 14 winners from 37 (37.8% SR) for 22.9pts (+61.8% ROI).

It's a very small sample size, but the Cumani-trained 3yr old female handicap debutantes priced between evens and 4/1 have won 12 out of 18 races (66.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 22.9pts (+127% ROI).

She faces a slight step up in trip today, but an increased race distance is another feature common to many of Luca's handicap debut winners. Since 2009 (again), those stepping up in trip (any step up) for a handicap debut have won 23 of 76 (30.3% SR) races for level stakes profits 52.8pts (+69.4% ROI) and if we imposed a simple 8/1 odds cap on those runners, we're left with 22/65 (33.9% SR) for 48.5pts (+74.6% ROI) profit.

Andrea Atzeni's on board today, he has a good record at this track and a good record for Luca Cumani and I see his booking as a positive sign of intent from the yard. Blue Waltz has a record of 221 so far and is improving steadily and whilst I don't want to disrespect Shane Kelly, who rode her well to victory last time out, I just feel that Andrea might just get a bit more out of this one.

I'm on Blue Waltz (not literally, of course! The RSPCA wouldn't like that!) at 3/1 BOG with Hills here, but the price is quite widely available (for now!), so to find your chosen bookies' price...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.25 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 25th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th June 2014

Sequester failed to keep our good run going at Beverley, succumbing to a five lengths defeat in a fairly close run affair. She didn't run badly, but hadn't little to offer late on when an effort was needed, having been kept pretty handy throughout.

It was a decent enough ride from Ted Durcan and perhaps this one might need to drop back slightly in trip to win again. The end result was a fourth place finish as a 3/1 favourite, slightly longer than our original advised odds of 11/4 and a further reminder to use the BOG bookies.

I'm taking a trip to Wiltshire in a bid to get back to winning ways and a Class 3 handicap for 3 yr olds over a mile and a half on what is expected to be good to firm ground for the...

4.20 Salisbury:

Where Andrea Atzeni rides the 5/1 shot Kinshasa, trained by Luca Cumani...

Luca Cumani has a decent record here at Salisbury under certain conditions...
He has saddled up 19 winners from his 93 runners here in the past, but despite a healthy 20.4% strike rate, his horses aren't profitable to back blindly here.

However, those running at 6/1 or shorter have won 18 of 56 (32.1% SR) for 13.6pts (+24.3% ROI) profit, so if the money's down, it's usually a good sign.

I'm not keen on putting forward short-priced favourites, so if we focus on the 13/8 t0 6/1 price range, we end up with 13 winners from 46 (28.3% SR) for 14.7pts (+31.9% ROI) profit, from which the handicap runners have won 9 of 28 (32.1% SR) for 16.4pts (+58.6% ROI)

Andrea Atzeni also performs well under similar conditions...
Here at Salisbury, since the start of the 2011 season, his record is 6 winners from 23 runners priced in that 13/8 to 6/1 bracket with the 26.1% strike rate producing profits of 6.13pts, a decent return of 26.7%.

Andrea also performs well on Luca's horses in general...
Up to and including the 2012 season, Andrea was 0/4 on horses trained by Mr Cumani, which is a very small (and fairly irrelevant) sample size.

But in the last season and a half, he has been far more active (and successful!) for the yard with 14 winners from his 82 rides for a strike rate of 17.1% which in turn has generated level stakes profits of 26.3pts or a 32% return on all stakes invested.

Kinshasa is making his handicap debut today...
In the last 5 years, Luca Cumani's horses have won 32 of 124 (25.8% SR) races when making their handicap debut on turf Level stakes profits of 67pts meant that followers saw a 54% return on their investments.

Incidentally, all 32 winners came from the 113 runners priced at 12/1 or below, which improves the strike rate to 28.3% and the resultant profits and ROI to 78pts and 69% respectively.

Runners on handicap debut sent off at 7/1 or shorter won 26 of 86 races (30.2% SR) for 36.8pts profit (+42.8% ROI).

Kinshasa steps up two furlongs in trip today...
This is something the Cumani team do quite often to good effect. Since 2008, the yard has stepped 112 horses up in trip for their handicap debut with 30 winners (26.8% SR) providing backers with 59.3pts (+52.9% ROI) profit.

As above, all the winners were priced at 12/1 or shorter for a record of 30/102 (29.4% SR) for 69.3pts (+67.9% ROI) with those horses stepping up just 1 or 2 furlongs winning 22 of 73 debuts (30.1% SR) for 41.3pts (+56.5% ROI).

Kinshasa was last seen winning a maiden at Kempton...
Horses running at Salisbury on the back of a win in a Kempton maiden last time out are 5/13 since 2010. It's not the biggest set of data I've ever worked with, but a 38.5% strike rate cannot be ignored completely, especially as it's profitable to the tune of 4.64pts (+35.7% ROI).

All the winners were priced below 8/1 for a 5/9 (55.6% SR) record yielding 8.64pts (+96% ROI) profit.

Kinshasa was fourth in each of his first two starts (1m and 1m2f) before winning at the third time of asking. That was also over 1m2f at Kempton three weeks ago and he looks the kind of progressive type this yard is known for.

He's by Pivotal out of Kibara (Sadler's Well), which suggests stamina and the ability to see out this trip shouldn't be an issue and the presence of a fairly short favourite should provide us with some value here, if we look in the right places.

He's as low as 7/2 in places, but better odds are available, notably with BetVictor or PP. I'm going with BetVictor for this one and placing a 1pt win bet on Kinshasa at 5/1 BOG. For a full overview of the state of the market...

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Stat of the Day, 17th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th June 2014

The Johnston/Fanning partnership left Cumbria empty-handed yesterday as all three runners were defeated in a rare off day for the duo.

This, of course, meant that we also backed a loser in the shape of Branston de Soto, who looked to have a decent chance when switched inside with two furlongs to go. As it was, two other horses got first run and were pulling clear before our horse had got into top gear and although he picked up some momentum and stayed on well, a 6.5 lengths defeat in fourth place was the outcome.

It has been a tough month so far and we're running at a slight loss, but I've still a dozen more opportunities in June to rectify that situation, starting with today's...

4.45 Thirsk:

And an 11/4 BOG wager on Luca Cumani's Semeen.

I found it interesting to see this horse being sent up to Thirsk today, as it's a bit of a rare foray for any Cumani horses to appear at Thirsk: just 23 have run here in the last 10 years!

I'm not sure why Luca doesn't come here more often, as he has had six winners (26.1% SR) from those 23 runners and whilst 2.41pts profit represents a lower ROI at 10.5% than we usually work with for SotD, it's still better than the banks are offering! From the 23 runners, all six winners came from the 20 sent off below 8/1, for a 30% strike rate and an ROI of 27.1% via the 5.41pts profit.

And from the original 23, the record in handicaps is 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 7.54pts (+58% ROI) with 4/12 (33.33% SR) for 8.54pts (+71.2% ROI) in handicaps and sent off below 8/1.

Since Team Cumani are rarely represented here at Thirsk, you'll not be surprised to learn that Semeen is the yard's only runner here today. But he's also the yard's only runner anywhere today and in the past five years, they have done rather well on those days where they've only had one runner.

Since the start of the 2010 season, their record when a solitary flat handicapper was the only runner of the day, that horse has won 24 of 86 (27.9% SR) races for level stakes profits of 26.4pts, or 30.7% of stakes. When they attract market attention and run at odds of between Evens and 4/1, the record is 19/44 (43.2% SR) for 22.3pts (+50.6% ROI) profit.

Semeen was in cracking form last season, winning three of his four races, including 2/3 over today's 1m4f trip. He showed some promise on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot just over five weeks ago, when beaten into fourth place, having weakened late on after coming off the back of a 41-week absence from the track. It was understandable that he might struggle that day, but having had that run and now encountering more favourable good ground (G to S last time), further improvement can be expected.

He's 1314 over today's trip and his stamina is no surprise/fluke either, as he's by Dubawi, whose progeny tend to stay and stay. In fact over the last five seasons, horses by Dubawi have won 69 of 271 races at trips of 1m2f to 2m, when sent off in the Evens to 12/1 odds range. This 25.5% strike rate has so far produced 214.5pts profit for a yield of 79.2%. Of those 271 runners, 77 were sent off between Evens and 4/1, with 34 of the 77 (44.2% SR) going on to win, generating 36.9pts (+47.9% ROI) in the process.

I'm confident that Semeen will come on for that latest run and that trip/going condition etc won't be an issue either. The booking of jockey Luke Morris is both interesting and positive in my mind, as Luke is another who rarely comes to Thirsk. He has only ridden here 30 times in eight years, but in that time he is 5/20 for 11.93pts in handicap contests at all odds and 5/12 in handicaps at 7/1 or shorter for 19.93pts profit.

We're not going to break the bank today, but I think that a 1pt win bet on Semeen at 11/4 BOG with Stan James has not only got some value to it, but should be paying us out later. The next best price on offer is the generally available 5/2 BOG, as you'll see if you...

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