Tag Archives: Lingfield

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2017

Wednesday's Result :

6.35 Brighton : Tommys Geal @ 9/2 BOG (3.83/1 after 15p R4) 5th at 7/2 Held up towards rear, headway chasing leaders over 2f out, soon ridden, weakened inside final furlong

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bamako du Chatelet7/2 BOG

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who won over this trip at Wolverhampton back in January, but has admittedly struggled to find form off higher marks since then. However, a return to this trip allied to only losing narrowly last time out a week ago gives cause for optimism.

He has a career record of 4 wins from 12 at this 1.5 mile trip and he's 4/11 on the A/W here at Lingfield, with a 3 from 7 record over course and distance.

He's trained by Ian Williams, whose runners are 36/180 (20% SR) for 42.4pts (+23.6% ROI) here on the A/W at Lingfield since 2010, of which...

  • those who finished 3rd, 4th or 5th last time out are 16/71 (22.5%) for 14.79pts (+20.8%)
  • those last seen 4 to 10 days ago are 14/40 (35%) for 50.56pts (+126.4%)
  • and over this 1m4f course and distance : 9/37 (24.3%) for 9.42pts (+25.5%)

In addition to the above, Ian Williams' runners running just 4 to 10 days after their last effort are 119/476 (25% SR) for 223.4pts (+46.9% ROI) since 2010, including...

  • handicaps : 98/374 (26.2%) for 255.9pts (+68.4%)
  • on the A/W : 45/191 (23.6%) for 177.3pts (+92.8%)
  • in A/W hcps : 36/157 (22.9%) for 179.9pts (+114.6%)
  • in Lingfield A/W handicaps : 10/32 (31.25%) for 39.5pts (+123.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bamako du Chatelet7/2 BOG which was on offer in around a dozen places at 6.00pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Lingfield

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 1st March 2013

Stat of the Day: 01/03/13

Stat of the Day: 01/03/13

Stat of the Day, 1st March 2013

Dydd Gwyl Dewi Hapus (Happy St. David's Day) to our Welsh readers!

February, unfortunately, ended pretty much the same way as most of the month had gone: disappointingly. Ocean Legend never got involved at all, beating just one other runner home after having drifted out to 8/1. There's little more that I need/want to add to that!

All-Weather action again today from "Leafy" as we look at a 4-runner, Class 5 Handicap. The trip is 7 furlongs for the...

4.15 Lingfield

David Simcock's yard is flying at the moment: 3 wins and 2 places from 7 runners in the last week and a 33% strike rate over the last two months is further proof that he's a man in form. He's saddled up fifteen winners from forty-six in that time, with a further eleven making the frame.

Added to this, David is the most successful trainer at Lingfield in the last two years (of those with runners today, of course!). He has an excellent 26.04% strike rate (25 winners from 95) and he has managed to get over half (54.74% to be precise) into the frame, making any of his Lingfield runners of interest to us, especially considering the form he's currently in.

Yet, today's selection might well look a bit of a punt in the form of Gabrial The Boss.

Gabrial The Boss is David's only runner anywhere today and you'd like to think he wasn't just sending the horse out on a two hundred mile round trip for the sake of a run. This horse has already won four races this winter, and has a record of two wins from four here at Lingfield.

His winter success has inevitably resulted in a rise in the weights and he did admittedly struggle in his last two races: both here at his track. He last won three races ago off a mark of 74, but ran off 77 over 10 furlongs and faded late on, whilst his latest outing was over a mile off a mark of 76 and although he went better that day, he weakened considerably in the final half furlong. Both those races, incidentally, were Class 4 affairs and he's back to Class 5 racing today.

He also drops back in distance today to 7 furlongs and is back to that last winning mark of 74, where it is hoped he'll make a bold effort to win the race from the front. He is more than capable of winning off this mark and whilst there are doubts over his ability to win at this shorter trip, those last two defeats gave me enough encouragement to think he might just go better than expected today.

His recent poor form allied to the drop in trip sees him as the outsider of four, but I think the odds on offer represent real value for a horse with undoubted ability. The best on offer at present is 7/1 BOG pretty much everywhere with 15/2 non-BOG available with Sporting Bet. As it's a 4-runner race, you'll not get offered place terms by any bookmakers, so my play today is 0.5pts win on Gabrial The Boss at 7/1 BOG plus a 0.5pt place bet at Betfair at Betfair SP (currently 3.00 for the place and 10.00 to win), but for your own preferred bookie, simply...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 4.15 Lingfield

 

Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2013

Stat of the Day: 03/02/13

Stat of the Day: 03/02/13

Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2013

No joy yesterday as Oh Crick finished just outside the places in 4th. At the second last, it looked like we were at least going to get some place money, but he weakened on the run in and was left behind by the eventual front three. We had a decent run for our money, but ultimately no reward..

I'm off out early on Sunday morning, so I've written this one up at some ungodly hour and I've decided to revert back to the All-Weather for today's selection, which runs in a 7-runner, Class 6 Handicap over ten furlongs: the...

2.10 Lingfield

Robert Mills is having a decent run on the A/W this winter with seven winners from twenty-three races in the last two months alone and an overall strike rate for the whole winter campaign of over 26%. His record at Lingfield has been particularly good this winter too. From twenty-four contests he has managed to get 14 of them into the frame (58.33%), with eight of them (33.33%) actually winning. These eight winners have brought in 12pts at SP for a handy 50% return on investments.

Robert has just the one runner out today: Close Together.

Close Together is making only her second appearance on the A/W today: having already won here at Lingfield over a mile in October 2012. This three-year old filly hasn't raced since then and should be ready and fresh for today's encounter.

It was a fairly modest 1m maiden that she won here in October and she seems to have been allotted a fair mark now handicapping, which will also benefit from the 5lb claim from today's jockey William Twiston-Davies;

She's a filly from Dylan Thomas and is a half-sister to several winners including a winner of the group 2 Champagne Stakes, Close To You , who incidentally was 2 from 2 here on this A/W track, including a listed race.

Close Together kept on well when securing her maiden victory and she should have no trouble staying this extra two furlongs today based on her breeding, which does tend to suggest that this trip or even a quarter-mile further will be the eventual aim.

There'll certainly not be enough in the market to take the safer E/W option today, but I'm confident of a big run from this filly today, so I'm happy to for a 1pt win bet on Close Together at 3/1 BOG with bet365. They were, in fact the only bookies with a price available at 0100, so it might be prudent to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.10 Lingfield

Stat of the Day, 24th January 2013

SotD : 24/01/13

SotD : 24/01/13

Stat of the Day, 24th January 2013

We're going to take a trip back in time today to find a selection running in a one-mile, six-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap this afternoon as we tackle the...

3.15 Lingfield

On 14th January, I selected Club House for SotD to compete over the same course & distance as today, but he was withdrawn from the race. He'd won back to back Class 4 C&D handicaps (same conditions as today) and although the race 10 days ago would have been a drop to Class 5: he is more than handy at this level.

The full reasoning behind the pick last time is right here.

Little has changed from the stats posted that day: the horse hasn't run since, it's the same course & distance and it's a handicap. There is one less runner and the contest is back at Class 4, but he does have form at this level.

The trainer Robert Mills has only had one entry at Lingfield in the last ten days and although that runner was unplaced, his course stats are still impressive. He stands at 10 winners and 9 further places from 32 over the last year and the win profits are just shy of 18pts. The promising Robert Tart (7lb claimer) retains the ride today and will be looking to improve on his already-excellent 435 strike rate on the Lingfield A/W surface.

The step back to Class 4 from our original selection has been reflected in the price, which I expected to be around the 9/2 (or lower) mark. At 1030, one could argue that a safety-first E/W bet could work with the 5/1 BOG on offer, but fortune favours the brave or so they say. In which case I'm going to plat as a 1pt win bet on Club House at 5/1 BOG with BetVictor.

Stan James are currently offering the same price and you can, of course, always check the odds on offer elsewhere by taking the opportunity to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

 

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 14/01/13

Stat of the Day: 14/01/13

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2013

We finally dragged ourselves off the cold list yesterday as Jimmy Quinn rode an almost perfect race on the back of the old stager Kames Park yesterday. He sat and waited and held the horse up until there just enough of a gap in the final furlong and once he hit the front, he wasn't going to be caught. He actually seemed to still have something in reserve. We had 10% shaved off our advised 6/1 price, but even at 5.4/1, we were paid out at almost double the 11/4 SP. (The old value chestnut again!)

At the time of writing this, there were doubts over Plumpton's meeting and I fancy a change away from Wolverhampton, so we're off to not-so-leafy Lingfield today to look at another horse in a purple patch after a previous lengthy losing run. The race in question is a one-mile Class 5 A/W handicap and seven runners are set to go to post for the...

3.30 Lingfield

In the last twelve months, Lingfield's polytrack has been kind to Robert Mills' horses and there have been a few appearing here. In fact, Robert has saddled up no less than 31 runners at Lingfiled in the last twelve months to very good effect. Far too many runners for me to give you one of my long form lines, but the results are impressive. Ten winners in that time represents a strike rate of 32.26%, which is not only excellent, it also helps generate profits of some 18.6pts at SP: a welcome profit on stakes of almost 60%.

E/W backers, whilst more cautious in their approach, have nevertheless also been rewarded by backing Mr Mills's horses here: 19 successful bets from the 31 is a 61.3% strike rate for a decent wedge of profit: some 27pts (43.5% POI).

It's hardly going to come as a shock to our regulars to hear that Robert only has the one runner today: the in-form Club House.

Club House embarked on an inauspicious flat campaign last May and had six outings on turf in total, failing to trouble the judges in returning figures of 544765. He had his first A/W run on 25th June and was a losing odds on favourite that day. In fact he had five runs on A/W tracks from 25th June to 8th December in mainly Class 5 events (1 race at Class 4) and he pretty much went the same way as his turf form: 23547 in total.

This sequence took his career stats to 0 wins and just 2 places from 11 runs, but there was little / no consistency in the booking of races for him. The 11 races had been contested at Classes 2 (once), 4 (5 times) and 5 (5 times) and at a staggeringly wide array of distances from 5f (1), 6f (4), 7f (2), 1m (2), 1m1f (1) and 1m2f (1).

Then a month ago today (14/12/12), he was entered in a Class 6 race over a mile (today's Course and Distance) and he returned as a 6/4 winner to break his duck. he was 4th of 9 runners here at Lingfield on New Year's Eve (Class 5: 7 furlongs), before landing back to back Class 4 Handicaps here this month: the latest was another course and distance win last Saturday.

So after a pretty nondescript start to his career, he comes here today as a triple course winner: twice over course & distance and his record here at Lingfield in the last month is 141 for +12.5opts, so he's in a rich vein of form.

He is, of course penalised 6lbs for that latest win, but he is dropping back down in class today and carries a 7lb claimer to boot. All that considered, he still stands a great chance of scoring a 12-day hat-trick, but we'll not be getting anywhere near Saturday's winning odds of 7/1. I'd have thought 2/1 would be nearer the mark.

As it stands, there's does still seem to be a little value in the price on offer, so my play today is a 1pt win bet on Club House at 11/4 BOG with Bet365. You can, of course, always check the odds on offer elsewhere by taking the opportunity to...

 

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.30 Lingfield

 

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2012

Stat of the Day 8/12/12

Stat of the Day 8/12/12

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2012

Ammunition went well enough yesterday and travelled nicely throughout. However, he did seem to idle a little in the later stages, allowing the front three to get too far away from him and although he was making up ground with every stride, he narrowly failed to grab a place for us. The end result as a 4th place finish at 6/1, half a length away from a payout.

We're going back to the All-Weather today to look at a course & distance specialist on the polytrack. Two non-runners mean we now have nine horses competing over 7 furlongs in a Class 5 handicap for the...

12.40 Lingfield

I'm not generally one for picking favourites for this column, but I think today's selection has an outstanding chance of improving an already excellent record.

Paphos has won six races to date at either 7f or 1 mile, with five of those victories on Polytrack. Meanwhile, his record here on Lingfield's A/W surface reads 111519 for a profit of 17.5pts.

More relevant is the fact that all those four victories have been over course & distance, where his record is quite simply 4/4. I'm happy to back him today, despite showing as favourite as I fully expect him to be 5/5 over C&D come lunchtime today.

The withdrawal at 9.00am of a main rival Rosetti has impacted the price, but Paphos is still widely available at 7/2 BOG, so that's the play for today: a 1pt win bet on Paphos at 7/2 BOG, I'm using William Hill today, but please feel free to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 12.40 Lingfield

Stat of the Day, 6th December 2012

Stat of the Day 6/12/12

Stat of the Day 6/12/12

Stat of the Day, 6th December 2012

The less said about yesterday's ride, the better, I think. Anyone who watched the race will agree it was a poor showing.

With doubts about the weather abound (Market Rasen is already off, Leicester are re-inspecting later and I've not heard from Wincanton), we're going to stay on the Polytrack for another Handicap contest. This time it's a Class 4 event over the minimum trip of 5 furlongs and 10 runners are set to enter the stalls for the...

2.55 Lingfield

Regular readers of SotD will know that I'm a fan of Roger Varian, particularly on the All-Weather tracks and his record at Lingfield in handicap races is very impressive.

His record over the last twelve months in these contests reads 3114501133, a 40% win strike rate generating 7.5pts profit and 7 placed from 10 has rewarded E/W backers with a profit of six points at SP.

Roger has just one runner today and that's the 3 yr old bay filly Havin a Good Time.

Since she's only a 3 yr old, she doesn't have as much experience behind her as some of the rivals she faces today, but she is also far less exposed. Today will be just her eighth start, but she has already clocked up three wins and a place from just six attempts at this trip (her debut outing was over 6f). She has won two out of three races on the all-weather and she already has a Lingfield victory under her belt, albeit on turf.

The decent start to her career and inevitably led to a rise in the weights and this is reflected in the price available today. At 9.25am 13/2 was available with Stan James.

I'd never discount a Roger Varian entrant in a handicap race, he never seems content to merely make up the numbers and I think we could be Havin A Good Time come 3pm this afternoon. Our selection has a decent chance of taking this one today, but due to the price on offer the prudent call is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Havin a Good Time at 13/2 BOG with Stan James. Other firms are offering 6/1 and you may get higher on the exchanges (Betfair were at 7.8 at 9.25am), so feel free to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.55 Lingfield

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2012

Stat of the Day 05/12/12

Stat of the Day 05/12/12

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2012

Yesterday must have been the shortest time a SotD horse has ever been in contention, as Arctic Watch fell at the first fence. We're obviously hoping for a bit more of a run for our money today, but it has been quite tricky finding a suitable selection. Roger Varian has some interesting runners today, but they already seem too short in the markets to offer much value, but we've got an outsider for you running in a 1 mile handicap on the Polytrack. No weather concerns here for the twelve runners contesting the...

1.30 Lingfield

It's not all about the trainer today, but it should be noted that although William Knight's strike rate at Lingfield is respectable, it's not the best on display. However, despite his strike rate at the track being under 20% (this is considered low for SotD purposes!), his 40 winners from 207 races (19.32% to be precise) have racked up highly impressive profits of just under £1400 to a £10 level stake at SP, a profit on investment of some 67%. A place strike rate of three in every eight has seen E/W backers make profits of 146pts.

After the withdrawal of Dusty Red from the 1.00 race, Mr Knight is now left with just one runner today, the track specialist Titan Triumph, our pick for today.

Titan Triumph has a whole host of stats we can call upon today, 6 wins and 6 further places over 1 mile on all-weather, giving a win return of +19pts and +26.5pts for E/W backers. He has won seven times on Lingfield's polytrack from 26 attempts with a further seven place finishes, making win profits of 17.3pts and another 26.3pts at E/W stakes.

These numbers inevitably leads us to look at his impressive returns over today's course and distance. He's a five times C&D winner with five further places, all from just fifteen races. A 33.33% strike rate isn't to be sniffed at, nor are the 16.5 pts profits made from those races. The 10/15 place record has made 23.1pts for E/W backers.

However, there is a note of caution and one that any detractors will pick up quite easily: his recent form has been poor to say the least, but the majority of his recent runs have been away from Lingfield and over a shorter trip. He does prefer the Lingfield mile and he seems to come alive at this time of year. November and December seem to be the best times to catch him over this course and distance: his record in these two months currently reads 31112, giving 6.53pts profits and 10.6pts at E/W stakes.

He also hasn't actually won a race since his last course victory here back in March, but he's now returning to his optimum trip 5lbs better off than he was during that victory.

There's plenty in his favour today, there's also plenty against him and this is, of course, reflected in the market. The race itself looks a very open contest and I think we've a fighting chance of a place today. The fact that BetVictor are offering 22/1 BOG means that even a place will provide us with a decent return, so the obvious call today is 0.5pts E/W on Titan Triumph at 22/1 BOG with BetVictor. 20/1 BOG is widely available elsewhere, if you've not got a BetVictor account, so feel free to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 1.30 Lingfield

Stat of the Day, 27th November 2012

Stat of the Day 27/11/12

Stat of the Day 27/11/12

Stat of the Day, 27th November 2012

Davy Russell gave Knockfierna a virtually perfect ride yesterday, he held her up well, whilst remaining close to the leaders and when he sent her for home, she never looked like losing, other than getting a bit too close to the last hurdle. We banked 3pts yesterday thanks to using BOG again, as the SP was shorter at 11/4.

The weather is horrific today, with only Lingfield staging racing.

I had initially marked today down as a no bet day, but after looking at the latest reports/predictions from the Met Office and listening to clerk of the course Neil Mackenzie Ross, it would seem that the track is now likely to be spared from much more (if any) rain for the rest of the day. With this in mind, I've taken a look at a Class 5 Handicap Chase over the bare minimum 2 miles. The going is of course, heavy and we're still expecting seven runners to contest the...

1.00 Lingfield

Over the last couple of years, trainer Laura Mongan has saddled up four winners from just seven entrants in Lingfield NH handicap events, an excellent 57% strike rate which has generated an amazing level stakes profit of some 37pts! In fact, only two of the seven have failed to make the frame.

Mrs Mongan has a couple of runners out today: Synthe Davis should put up a decent performance in the 2.30 race ( a decent E/W shout at 13/2), but the current conditions have steered me towards today's selection: Rosoff.

Rosoff is one of only two C&D winners on show at the track today (Hidden Identity in the 12.30 is the other) and has decent form on heavy ground with 3 previous wins on such ground. The trip, although the bare minimum, won't prove too sharp for this 10yr old warrior as he has already recorded 4 wins at today's distance and he has previous form at this track: scoring 2 wins here before today's contest. One of those victories was, as I alluded to earlier was a course and distance win.

Richard Johnson takes the ride on Rosoff today and his record on board this horse reads 212. I think we've another good chance of maintaining our recent run of good form and whilst the earlier 11/4 on offer from Stan James has gone, there's plenty of 5/2 BOG available for our 1pt win bet, so you can pick your favourite bookie if you just...

Click here for the latest betting on the 1.00 Lingfield

 

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2012

Stat of the Day 24/11/12

Stat of the Day 24/11/12

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2012

A bit of a head scratcher yesterday, I nominated Saunta at 17/2, which I thought was a decent enough price. The rest of the market disagreed and she was sent off at 14/1. She pulled very hard early on and didn't look like a 14/1 chance, despite not really troubling the leading trio. She seemed to be staying on again at the finish, but hadn't done enough mid-race to grab a place in the front three. She eventually finished 4th, just 3/4 length away from netting us a nice place return.

I'm staying on the A/W again today and heading towards East Grinstead for a Class 4, 5 furlong Handicap where nine runners are currently set to contest the...

2.25 Lingfield

When you begin to compile a list of notable trainers at the Lingfield venue, I'd wager that Tim Pitt wouldn't be very up that list, if he was on it at all! Yet, if we look at this record here this year, we can see that he has saddled three winners from eleven for a level stakes profit of 12.75pts with a further four horses making the frame.

All three winners came in handicap events, where he is 3/5 for 18.75pts with a record of 12121.

Today's selection is Tim's only runner: Sonko.

Sonko is developing into a bit of a specialist at 5 furlongs, where she is 5/18 with 6 further place finishes for a win profit of over 13pts, but even more relative to today's contest, she is 112121 over 5 furlongs on All-Weather for a profit of over 21pts and she's 2/2 over today's course & distance.

I don't normally pick favourites for SotD, but I think there's enough value in the price to justify this pick today and if she grabs the lead early on, she'll be very hard to catch and/or pass. She has shown in the past a liking for front running on these surfaces and I'd expect a similar tactic today.

She is up in class today, which means she won't be a really short-priced favourite, so I'm happy to take the 7/2 BOG widely available ( at 10.20am) for a straight 1pt win bet on Sonko. I'm using bet365 today, but if you prefer to use a different bookmaker, you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.25 Lingfield