Tag Archives: Lingfield racecourse

Stat of the Day, 31st December 2019

Monday's pick was...

12.25 Haydock : Longhousesignora @ 4/1 9th at 15/2 (Prominent until 2nd, chased leaders, lost place before 4th, closed after 6th, ridden next, weakened after 8th)

New Year's Eve's pick runs in the...

3.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding comes here seeking a hat-trick after back to back course and distance wins on this track in the last month, both at this grade under today's jockey and beating six of today's ten rivals in the process.

Jockey Hector Crouch is in decent touch right now (generally a useful pointer with these lower grade horses who tend to bet each other on a cyclical basis) having clocked up 5 winners from 25 (20% SR) for 3.11pts (+12.4% ROI) over the last three weeks of racing, from which he is...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 16.11pts (+134.3%) at 8/1 or shorter
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 19.11pts (+212.3%) at Class 6
  • 4/16 (25%) for 10.16pts (+63.5%) at Lingfield
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 12.37pts (+112.5%) in handicaps
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 19.37pts (+484.25%) at 8/1 or shorter in Lingfield Class 6 handicaps.

Trainer John E Long doesn't have the biggest string of horses at his disposal, but the numbers say he's having a fair old time of it these last two years. He might have only sent 61 runners out in the last 24 months, but 13 winners (21.3% SR) and 180.9pts (+296.5% ROI) profit suggest he might be one to keep an eye on, especially under conditions like today, as those 61 runners are...

  • 13/52 (25%) for 189.9pts (+365.2%) in races worth less than £4600 to the winner
  • 13/51 (25.5%) for 190.9pts (+374.3%) in handicaps
  • 13/47 (27.7%) for 194.9pts (+414.7%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 12/47 (25.5%) for 188pts (+400%) over 6 to 10 furlongs
  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 164pts (+455.7%) within 45 days of their last run
  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 119pts (+297.5%) with 4/5 yr olds
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 147.7pts (+351.7%) within 60 miles of base
  • 9/35 (25.7%) for 136pts (+388.5%) on the A/W (all on Poly)
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 99.7pts (+311.5%) at Class 6
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 144.3pts (+655.9%) from September to January
  • 6/15 (40%) for 60.5pts (+403.1%) at 6 furlongs
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 13.3pts (+110.7%) at 4/1 and shorter
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 9pts (+82.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 15pts (+186.9%) with Hector Crouch in the saddle

Obviously you can combine the above details into a composite angle, but with each added filter you do dilute the sample size.

If you took the first 7 of those 14 angles above, then 4/5 yr olds having travelled less than 60 miles from home to run in 8-13 runner handicaps over 6-1o furlongs worth less than £4600 within 45 days of their last run are 8 from 14 (57.1% SR) for 92.8pts (+663% ROI), including 6 from 9 at Class 6, 5 from 9 on A/W (all Poly), 5 from 6 from September to December and 4 from 7 over 6f and so on...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 12.30am on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG 9th at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 13f out until over 5f out, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.1o Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £2.782 to the winner...

Why?...

In a race where none of the runners are in any real kind of decent form, I'm siding with an 8 yr old gelding who has 10 wins to his name and races off a mark 10lbs and 2 classes lower than when winning back to back Class 4 handicaps here on this track earlier in the year, including one over course and distance.

His overall career stats are modest at 10/103 (9.7% SR) for a loss of 11.63pts (-11.3% ROI), but he does go much better when faced with the conditions on offer today, as he is 8 from 17 (47.1% SR) for 42.82pts (+251.9% ROI) in 6/7f handicaps at odds of 12/1 and shorter when wearing a hood in a field of 7-10 runners after three weeks rest, running for trainer David O'Meara...

...who himself is 15/70 (21.4% SR) for 47.43pts (+67.8% ROI) in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield since the start of 2016 with horses sent off at 10/1 and shorter, including...

  • 12/41 (29.3%) for 50.29pts (+122.7%) over 5-7 furlongs
  • 8/37 (21.6%) for 26.3pts (+71.1%) during December/January
  • 8/25 (32%) for 39.6pts (+158.4%) in 2019
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 23.2pts (+145%) from 8/9 yr olds
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 7.16pts (+102.3%) with jockey David Probert
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 18pts (+300%) at Class 6...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2019

Monday's pick was...

4.45 Wolverhampton : Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/4 (Raced wide close up, pushed along and headway 2f out, soon chased leader, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, led close home, winning by a nose!)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Conditional Jockeys Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

It has been almost 11 months and nine defeats since this 11 yr old gelding last ran off a mark (OR) lower than 120 (my 50th birthday to be precise, but that's another matter!) and that was also his last win, so I'm glad to see him back off a winnable mark and not having any younger, fitter runners to deal with.

He's never been prolific (5/46 = 10.9% SR), but a quick look a this wins/best runs would suggest he's more likely to win any/some/all of the following are present...

  • a run in the previous 7 weeks (ran 19 days ago)
  • sent off at 5/1 or shorter (we're on at 10/3)
  • going left handed (tick)
  • handicap chases (tick)
  • soft or worse (heavy today)
  • OR lower than 120 (119 here)
  • wearing cheekpieces (tick)
  • running at Class 3/4 (C3 today)

...and when going left handed at 5/1 or shorter after 6 weeks rest or less, he is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 7.41pts (+148.1% ROI) including 2 from 2 on soft or worse and 1/1 on heavy.

He is trained by Venetia Williams, one of my trainers to watch in the closing stages of the year (and also one of the trainers that switched me on to the statistical side of betting, but again that's another story for another day), as her chasers are 104 from 567 (18.3% SR) for 227.2pts (+40.1% ROI) during the closing two months of the year over the past nine years, with every year bar 2017 showing healthy strike rates and ROI figures.

And from the 567 November/December chasers since 2011...

  • 99/514 (19.3%) for 218.9pts (+42.6%) in handicaps
  • 98/515 (19%) for 237.9pts (+46.2%) from male runners
  • 94/474 (19.8%) for 204.5pts (+43.2%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 71/361 (19.7%) for 116.5pts (+32.3%) on soft/heavy (the stat probably most well known)
  • 49/233 (21%) for 106.1pts (+45.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 29/134 (21.6%) for 63.6pts (+47.5%) off marks of 110-120
  • and 13/72 (18.1%) for 42pts (+58.3%) since the start of 2018 (so we're not using old data as a crutch!)

...whilst from the above, Class 2-4 male handicappers on soft or worse are 59/265 (22.3% SR) for 108.6pts (+41% ROI), a handy little micro for 30-ish bets a year, but if 15 or so bets in a month from one angle is too much, then you could re-filter using the initial parameters to get...

  • 31/109 (28.4%) for 90.4pts (+83%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 19/78 (24.4%) for 25.1pts (+32.2%) off an OR of 110-120
  • 11/35 (31.4%) for 18.65pts (+53.3%) off 110-120 at 1-25 dslr
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 17.67pts (+50.5%) in 2018/19
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 25.5pts (+283.3%) at 1-25 dslr in 2018/19
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.82pts (+97.7%) off 110-120 in 2018/19
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 4.27pts (+106.8%) off 110-120 at 1-25 dslr in 2018/19...

...and this possible over-dilution points to...a 1pt win bet on Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 (10/3)  or Coral/Ladbrokes (3/1) or Betfair/PaddyPower/Hills (3/1) respectively (third grouping not BOG until raceday, mind) at 5.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th November 2019

Fridays pick was...

3.10 Southwell : Queen Of Kalahari @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader, joined leader over 2f out, led approaching final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pearl Spectre @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap over 7f on Polytrack worth £3,170 to the winner...

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding lost nothing (apart from the win & resultant prize money, of course) when nailed on the line and beaten by a nose at Chelmsford five days ago. A subsequent drop of 1lb in the ratings, the booking of an in-form 7lb claimer and a 1f drop in trip should all help this former course and distance winner see the trip out better today.

Jockey Grace McEntee is, as I intimated, riding well with 3 winners and 2 placers from 10 rides over the past 10 days, so she'll be keen to add to that tally today. Most of her rides are for her father, Phil and it's his record with quickly turned out placers that caught my eye for today's pick, as...

...since the start of 2016, Phil McEntee's handicappers sent off at odds ranging from Evens to 12/1 (my default starting point), 3 to 14 days after a top 3 finish are 25 from 129 (23.2% SR) for 54.8pts (+43.9% ROI) and these include of note/relevance today...

  • 22/73 (30.1%) for 73.8pts (+101.1%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 17/70 (24.3%) for 23.7pts (+33.9%) at Class 6
  • 16/73 (21.9%) for 40.7pts (+55.8%) in 2018/19
  • 13/49 (26.5%) for 34.2pts (+69.8%) over 7 furlongs
  • 12/54 (22.2%) for 19.4pts (+35.9%) were beaten by 2 lengths or less
  • and 4/17 (23.5%) for 14pts (+82.4%) here at Lingfield

...whilst those racing over 6/7 furlongs in 9-13 runner Class 6 contests are 10 from 24 (41.7% SR) for 41.4pts (+172.6% ROI) since the start of 2018, including 4/6 (66.6%) for 19.2pts (+320.2%) beaten by less than a length LTO and 2/4 (50%) for 10.32pts (+258%) here at Lingfield...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Pearl Spectre@ 11/4 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & Hills (latter is BOG from midnight) at 6.40pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th November 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

5.10 Kempton : Stringybark Creek @ 15/2 BOG 5th at 8/1 (Raced wide towards rear, pushed along and headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, never nearer)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Colonel Whitehead @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, A/W Nursery Handicap for 2yo over 5f on Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This colt has won two of his last four starts, including last time out a week ago in a Class 4 contest over this 5f trip up at Newcastle under today's jockey Ellie MacKenzie, who again claims 7lbs.

The colt is 2 from 3 on the A/W so far, including 2/2 at 5f, 2/2 with Miss Mackenzie in the saddle, 1/2 on Polytrack and 1/1 going left handed. He actually lost his only previous Class 5 contest, but is 2 from 2 at Class 4!

Trainer Heather Main's horses are 2 from 6 over the past week, whilst more generally she has had 6 winners from 22 (27.3% SR) for 94.64pts (+430.2% ROI) with Ellie MacKenzie in the hotseat, amongst which there are three winners from ten (30%) for 38.92pts (+389.2%) on the All-Weather.

Heather's record with handicappers dropping down a class on the Flat/AW shows 14 winners from 69 (20.3% SR) for 171.2pts (+248.2% ROI) over the past four years, including...

  • 13/47 (27.7%) for 181.8pts (+386.8%) from June to November
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 73.5pts (+216.1%) from those rested for less than three weeks
  • 7/34 (20.6%) for 66pts (+194.1%) on the A/W
  • 4/16 (25%) for 35.8pts (+224$) at Class 5
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 23.2pts (+210.9%) here at Lingfield
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 37.2pts (+619.9%) under Ellie MacKenzie

And over the last five years, when Heather Main's list of daily runners is a sole handicapper, that horse has won 24 of 179 (13.4% SR) for 87.8pts (+49% ROI) profit, with the following of relevance/note today...

  • 18/122 (14.8%) for 64.2pts (+52.6%) had run in the previous 30 days
  • 14/89 (15.7%) for 28.8pts (+32.4%) on the A/W
  • 10/67 (14.9%) for 14.2pts (+21.2%) at Class 5
  • 6/35 (17.1%) for 80pts (+228.5%) dropping down a class
  • and 6/29 (20.7%) for 27.4pts (+94.4%) here at Lingfield...

...whilst those running on the A/W within 30 days of their last run are 11 from 60 (18.3% SR) for 35.8pts (+59.7% ROI), including 5/26 (19.2%) at Class 5, 3/14 (21.4%) at Lingfield, 3/11 (27.3%) dropping down a class and 3/11 (27.3%) in Class 5 contests here at Lingfield...

...all pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Colonel Whitehead @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 5.20pm on Wednesday, although Bet365 were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th November 2019

Friday's pick was...

3.45 Southwell : Oriental Cross @ 6/1 (4.8/1 after a 20p R4!) WON at 9/2 (Tracked leaders on outside, led going well approaching 2 out, went clear before last, won easily by 7 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Scentasia @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday or 7/2 BOG now

...in the 14-runner, British Stallion Studs EBF Gillies Fillies Stakes Listed Race for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £21,266 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly has won three of her last 5 starts including landing a Listed contest on this very track last time out, 16 days ago. That was her first run at this level, so she will hope to maintain that 100% record. She's 1 from 2 at this venue, 3 from 6 for trainer John Gosden and also 3 from 6 when rested for 2 to 6 weeks.

She'll be ridden by Frankie Dettori, who just has a fantastic record in Listed races, winning 50 of 191 (26.2% SR) for 69.7pts (+36.5% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2014. Trust me, guys, those are astounding numbers, but we can make them look better, surely?

Of course we can. Amongst that 50/191 record and of relevance today there are...

  • 37/112 (33%) for 84.3pts (+75.3%) after 16 to 120 days off track
  • 29/105 (27.6%) for 14.4pts (+13.7%) for trainer John Gosden
  • 29/81 (35.8%) for 26.5pts (+32.7%) on LTO winners
  • 26/91 (28.6%) for 64.9pts (+71.4%) on female runners
  • and 23/78 (29.5%) for 48.9pts (62.7%) in female only races...

...whilst on John Gosden's females who won LTO 16-120 days earlier, Frankie is 9 from 17 (52.9% SR) for 15.6pts (+91.8% ROI).

And whilst Frankie's clearly the man for the job, trainer John Gosden is no slouch around these parts either, his horses have won 28 of 80 (35% SR) for 36.7pts (+45.9% ROI) on the Polytrack here at Lingfield since the start of 2018, including...

  • 24/66 (36.4%) for 40.1pts (+60.8%) in non-handicaps
  • 22/65 (33.9%) for 38.9pts (+59.8%) from October to April
  • 22/53 (41.5%) for 43.2pts (+81.5%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 34.8pts (+108.8%) over this 1m2f C&D
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 10.1pts (+77.3%) at Class 1
  • and 4/10 (40%) for 11.78pts (+117.8%) in Listed contests...

...whilst Mr G's 3 yr old non-handicappers are 12 from 32 (37.5% SR) for 40.8pts (+127.4% ROI) during October to April, giving us 112% of the original profit from just 40% of the bets!

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Scentasia @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday or 7/2 BOG now as was available from Hills (4/1) & generally at 7/2 at 6.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th November 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.15 Kempton : The King's Baby @ 3/1 BOG PU at 13/8 (Led until hit 2nd and headed, mistake and lost 2nd 10th, mistake and behind, next, tailed off and pulled up before 3 out)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Potters Hedger @ 4/1 BOG 

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m3½f on Heavy ground worth £5,913 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding makes a seasonal reappearance today after almost seven months off track. He won twice last season and rounded off that campaign with a pair of placed finishes. He has made the frame on his only previous heavy ground run, he stays all day if needed (has won at 2m5f and at 3m1.5f!) and a quick look at his profile shows he has 2 wins and a place from four efforts going left handed in cheekpieces, as will be the case today.

His trainer, Lucy Wadham, doesn't send many runners here  : just 55 in 16 years to be precise but an overall 20% strike rate suggests that it's not a lack of success keeping here and her string away from Lingfield.

In fact, she's 6 from 18 (33.3% SR) for 116pts (+644.5% ROI) here since the start of 2015 and whilst there's a 14/1 winner that strangely paid out at 81.5 at Betfair SP skewing the P/L & ROI figures, the strike rates stand up for themselves, as they do in the following filters that are all relevant today...

  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 118pts (+737.5%) from November to February
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 111pts (+853.8%) at Class 3/4
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 84.3pts (+702.1%) with Leighton Aspell in the saddle
  • 4/10 (40%) for 88.84pts (+888.4%) over hurdles
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 117.62 (+1960.3%) since the start of 2018
  • 4/5 (80%) for 24.34pts (+486.8%) in 9-runner contests
  • 3/10 (30%) for 35.69pts (+256.9%) in handicaps
  • 2/8 (25%) for 2.4pts (+30%) on heavy ground
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 28.2pts (402.4%) at Class 3
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 81.98pts (+1366.3%) from those rested for 6 months or longer
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 80.87pts (+1617.3%) over this course and distance

I accept that these are fairly small sample sizes, but I'm not a believer in coincidence and I think there's enough numerical evidence...

...to support...a 1pt win bet on Potters Hedger @ 4/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, who were the only one showing a price at 4.55pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th August 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.55 Newmarket : Dazzling Dan @ 10/3 BOG WON at 10/3 (With leader, led entering final furlong, stayed on strongly to win by half a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tarseekh @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding has made the first four home in each of his last seven outings and was in serious contention in all bar one of them and actually winning twice, including an LTO success at Chelmsford at this grade/trip 27 days ago.

He's up 3lbs for that win, but the 3lb claimer on board that day has now been replaced by a jockey claiming five, so we're effectively only a pound worse off than his last outing, which should keep him competitive today.

He's of further interest here, as his trainer Charlie Wallis tends to do well with his A/W sprinters and I look out for his runners in handicaps at trips of 6f and shorter, since they are 39/198 (19.7% SR) for 81.6pts (+41.2% ROI) since the start of 2016 at odds of 12/1 and shorter, from which...

  • 37/173 (21.4%) for 92pts (+53.2%) after a break of 4-45 days
  • 29/131 (22.1%) for 70.3pts (+53.7%) on Polytrack
  • 27/113 (23.9%) for 76.2pts (+67.5%) from 5/6 yr olds
  • 22/96 (22.9%) for 46.1pts (+48%) at Class 6
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 39.7pts (+132.3%) ridden by a 3/5 lb claimer
  • and 5/13 (38.5%) for 13.73pts (+105.6%) during August/September

...and 5/6 yr olds competing at Class 6 on Polytrack after 4-45 days rest are 11 from 34 (32.4% SR) for 43pts (+126.5% ROI)...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Tarseekh @ 7/2 BOG as was available from SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power (although the last two don't go BOG until morning) respectively at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th August 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.30 Beverley : Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, effort when not much room inside final 2f, ridden 1f out, soon every chance, kept on, held towards finish)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Visionara @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

A lightly raced 3 yr old filly makes her handicap debut on what will be only her fourth outing to date, the latest of which was a runner-up finish when beaten by just half a length at Chelmsford in a higher grade twelve days ago.

Her trainer, Simon Crisford's runners are 12 from 31 here on the polytrack at Lingfield when sent off at odds of 5/4 to 9/2 (should be there today) with that excellent 38.7% strike rate generating 19.4pts profit at a more than acceptable 62.6% ROI, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 8/17 (47.1%) for 14.17pts (+83.4%)
  • handicappers are 7/17 (41.2%) for 15.82pts (+93.1%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/15 (40%) for 11.56pts (+77.1%)
  • whilst those rested for less than 3 weeks are 4/10 (40%) for 8.26pts (+82.6%)

And as today is Visionara's handicap debut, it's worth knowing/noting that Mr Crisford's handicap debutants sent off shorter than 10/1 are 26/96 (27.1% SR) for 28.4pts (+29.6% ROI) and these include...

  • 16/54 (29.6%) for 31.31pts (+58%) who were beaten LTO
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 26.47pts (+67.9%) on the A/W
  • 9/20 (45%) for 27.45pts (+137.3%) over 7f
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 11.22pts (+38.7%) at Class 5
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.93pts (+21.5%) in August
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.48pts (+74.7%) here at Lingfield

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Visionara @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG as was available in several places (Bet365 had the best price) at 6.05pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2019

Monday's pick was...

6.50 Wolverhampton : Street Poet @ 6/1 BOG 4th at 8/1 (Chased leaders, every chance from over 1f out, no extra closing stages, beaten by little more than a quarter length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

8.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fancy Flyer @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f  on Polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

When you're on a bit of a cold run like I am at present, you'd not normally be looking at horses with a 0 from 12 record to bail you out, but we've done it before and both horse and "tipster" are due a win, so let's take a closer look at this runner's credentials...

He's a 3 yr old gelding, who despite failing to break his duck in a dozen attempts, came very close at Epsom last time out, finishing third 26 days ago, beaten by just a length. His yard are having a decent enough "summer" with trainer Dean Ivory's runners winning 14 of 64 (25.9% SR) handicaps over the last nine weeks for level stakes profits of 91.4pts (+169.3% ROI), from which the following are relevant today...

  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 99.73pts (+343.9%) after a 21-60 day break
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 55.53pts (+213.6%) after a top 4 finish LTO
  • 10/22 (45.5%) for 28.19pts (+128.1%) at 7/1 and shorter
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 24pts (+171.5%) over 7f
  • 4/16 (25%) for 16.37pts (+102.3%) at Class 6
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 15.47pts (+221%) from those beaten by a length or less LTO...

...with those sent off at 7/1 and shorter, 6-45 days after a top 4 finish LTO winning 8 of 16 (50% SR) for 24.55pts (+153.4% ROI) including 5/9 (55.6%) for 13.99pts (+155.5%) over 7f and shorter.

Dean's overall record in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield since 2013 stands at 23 from 108 (21.3% SR) for 55.54pts (+51.4% ROI) from runners priced at 5/2 to 10/1, including...

  • 22/102 (21.6%) for 58.36pts (+57.2%) in fields of 7 or more runners
  • 22/97 (22.7%) for 63.53pts (+65.5%) over trips of 1m2f and shorter
  • 16/58 (27.6%) for 43.23pts (+74.5%) after a top 4 finish LTO
  • 12/42 (28.6%) for 36.5pts (+87%) after a break of 21-60 days
  • 9/50 (18%) for 16.92pts (+33.8%) at Class 6
  • and 7/18 (38.9%) for 24.63pts (+136.9%) in 3yo races...

...from which, those racing in fields of 7 or more runners over 1m2f and shorter, 11-60 days after a top 4 finish LTO are 13 from 38 (34.2% SR) for 50.98pts (+134.2% ROI), including 5/12 (41.7%) for 28.83pts (+240.3%) at Class 6 and 5/6 (83.3%) for 28.83pts (+480.5%) in 3yo races...

...whilst like today, in 3yo Class 6 contests, they are 3/3 (100% SR) for 24pts (+800% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fancy Flyer @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.15pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!