Tag Archives: Kempton

Stat of the Day, 4th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 04/03/13

Stat of the Day: 04/03/13

Stat of the Day, 4th March 2013

SotD provided me with another of those "bang your head in frustration" days yesterday. It was a classic case of right stat, wrong race, as Milan Royale (highlighted as decent value at 13/2) was a good 5/1 winner for Malcolm Jefferson, thanks to some excellent riding at the death by Harry Haynes. Unfortunately, I'd plumped for his other chaser Schinken Otto, who was disappointingly 6th, some 12 lengths off the pace.

I know (from the emails received!) a good few of you backed both horses (as I did) and made 5.5pts on the day, so well done to all who did, but the official tally will show another -1pt, I'm afraid.

We're heading South today for the day's last race: a 1m 3f, Class 6 handicap on the Polytrack, where 14 runners are set to contest the...

6.30 Kempton

Paul Burgoyne isn't exactly one of the best known trainers around, but he's currently getting a fine tune out of his runners here at Kempton.

We're just nine weeks into 2013 and Paul's runners here already won three times from eleven races with a further five runners making the places. The win strike rate of 27.3% has produced profits of 38.5pts (+350% POI), whilst E/W backers have enjoyed a 72.7% strike rate on their way to 54pts (+222.6%).

As is often the case for SotD, Paul has just one entrant today: Irene Kennet.

Irene Kennet is a 6yr old bay mare who has shown bags of  improvement over 1m4f here at this track (3112 in her four starts) since switching to handicap company and ran really well here last time out in her hat-trick bid. She was by no means disgraced that day, though, finishing 2nd by just half a length on Valentine's Day.

Her recent excellent form has, admittedly, resulted by a 4lb rise in the weights, but it is hoped that the slight drop (1f) back in trip to 1m 3f should counteract that extra burden and she still looks a type to improve further.

To some, the new trip and the extra weight will be of minor concern, but there does seem to be enough in the market (as of 10.20 am) for us to hedge our bets with a safety-first approach. I'm confident of her putting in another big run today, but the prudent call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Irene Kennet at 7/1 BOG with Paddy Power, but you can always...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 6.30 Kempton

Stat of the Day, 28th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 28/02/13

Stat of the Day: 28/02/13

Stat of the Day, 28th February 2013

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and hindsight now suggests that yesterday's selection Alnoomaas was an excellent E/W bet at the advised 8/1. Unfortunately, partially down to a desire to make up a shortfall for the month and also due to my confidence in the pick, we'd gone win only on this one. The horse did indeed revert back to front running and led for most of the race, but was finally caught and passed by the flying favourite at the death. The end result: 2nd by a length!

SotD is staying put today for another Class 5 handicap, but this one has ten runners tackling seven furlongs for the...

7.00 Kempton

Today is another piece all about the horse, rather than the trainer or jockey. It's a horse who is very experienced with no less than 77 races under his belt over the last 7 years.

Ocean Legend is today's selection and whilst his form over the last few years leaves a little to be desired, there's every possibility that today's conditions will be just right for him. Since the turn of 2010, he has won six times from forty-two starts. This is a decent enough strike rate (14.3%) as a starting point, but level stakes losses of 3pts means that we need more reasons to back him today.

It then turns out that all six wins in that timeframe have come here at Kempton from 19 races (31.6% strike rate for +20pts) and all six were over today's course and distance. His record over C&D since the start of 2010 shows six wins and two places from sixteen races. This excellent 37.5% strike rate has generated profits of 23pts at SP (+143.75%) and E/W backers have collected on 50% of the races to the tune of 24.6pts.

Today's contest is a Class 5 event and Ocean Legend has won all four previous Class 5 C&D races since 2010, making 21pts in the process.

He seems to have been given a decent mark to work from today, as he drops back in Class. He had been running in Class 3 & 4 races, before taking a break over the winter. He reappeared here at Kempton for another Class 4 contest a fortnight ago and should be better for having that run under his belt. He is running off a mark of 73 today, he last won off 77 and he has actually won off a mark as high as 80, so if he's up for it today, he really does have every chance.

Just like yesterday, I believe that today's race is there to be won. And the early markets show our pick at 11/2 joint 2nd favourite alongside my friend's horse Avonmore Star. My call today is a 1pt win bet on Ocean Legend at 11/2 BOG with Bet 365 (same price is available with BetVictor and SkyBet, who are non-BOG though), but to take your own pick of the bookies...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 7.00 Kempton

The full racecard for today's race is right here, too.

Stat of the Day, 27th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 27/02/13

Stat of the Day: 27/02/13

Stat of the Day, 27th February 2013

In what is becoming a boringly predictable tale of woe this month, we drew another blank yesterday. Carmela Maria finished the race as strongly as we'd have liked her to, but I can't help feeling that she came from way too far off the pace and despite closing in on the leading group with every stride, the line came too soon for her/us. The winner Everaard wasn't getting caught once the unfortunate Stop On broke down, but had our charge been made earlier, we really could have grabbed a place, yet it ended up as 5th place at 10/1 for us.

We're returning to the evening All-Weather scene today and a trip back South for a Class 5, 6 furlong handicap where eleven runners are set to go to post for the...

6.30 Kempton

If I'm brutally honest, Luke Dace's training record here at Kempton is fairly average. He has saddled just three winners here from thirty attempts in the last year, recording level stakes losses of 13pts at SP, whilst E/W backers have only seen a return on their money seven times on their way to a loss of over 25pts.

However, every cloud has a silver lining. All three winners were over today's course and distance by the same horse: Alnoomas. This horse has an overall record here at Kempton of 971116 for a profit of 11pts, with him remaining unbeaten at C&D.

Alnoomaas has adapted very well to the Polytrack surface away from a pretty nondescript 4 races on turf. He has since won on four of his last eight starts, the latest of this victories being a C&D win on 2nd January, beating Lastkingofscotland, who then went on to win his next race over C&D.

Our selection wasn't at this best last time out (5f race here a fortnight ago) when adopting a more patient approach to the race, but ended up having to run very wide. He finished some 7 lengths behind Picansort that day and the step back up to 6 furlongs seems the right move.

If the team return to their usual tactics of being towards the head of the pack, there's no reason why Alnoomas can't make it four from four over Course & Distance.

I'm expecting a good run in a race that's there to be won today and William Hill, BetVictor & Paddy Power are all offering 8/1 BOG about our selection, so it's a 1pt win bet on Alnoomas at 8/1 BOG. To take your pick of the bookies...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 6.30 Kempton

The full racecard for today's race is right here, too.

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2013

Stat of the Day: 23/02/13

Stat of the Day: 23/02/13

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2013

Another frustrating blank yesterday, as Frisco Depot seemed not to stay the trip and folded quite tamely late on. He still got home, albeit in 5th position. The money came for David Pipe's favourite and his horse justified the support winning quite comfortably.

It's another chase event today and we're off to the banks of the Thames (almost, anyway!) for one of the biggest races of the day. We're going to tackle the Class 1 Racing Plus Chase, a Grade 3 Handicap over 3 miles. The ground is expected to be Good (but softer in places) for the thirteen runners in today's...

3.50 Kempton

Tom George has a good record with his runners here at Kempton over the last couple of years: 15 runners, 4 winners (26.7%) for 10pts profit (+66.7% POI) with a further two runners making the frame. His chasers here have kept up their end of the bargain too with three winners from nine (+11pts) and a place strike rate of 56%.

Paddy Brennan is one of the top jockeys around this course during the same time-frame too, with stats of seven winners from twenty for good profits of 30pts at SP and a 45% place strike rate. His record when chasing here is four winners and a place from just 10 attempts: the 4 winners producing 20pts profit to boot.

Together, they have already made 34pts profit this season at various tracks, whilst in 2012 they teamed up six times here at Kempton with a record that reads 11F161 giving followers 18.5pts profit (21.4pts for the E/W backers), whilst their 2012 Kempton chase form was 1161 for 15.5pts (18.6pts E/W).

Paddy rides two chasers for Mr George today: Lexicon Lad looks to have a reasonable chance in the 1.30 race, but for a horse more likely to place than win, his current odds of around 9/2 are a little on the mean side for me with no E/W get out. Instead I'm more interested in the grey Nacarat running in the 3.50 race.

Nacarat is 1424351 over course & distance giving returns of 9.5pts for win backers and 12.75pts to E/W stakes, so this 12 yr old warrior has been profitable to follow here. He also loves this race, having finished in the first three home in each of the last four renewals.

He won the race in 2009, 2nd in 2010, 3rd in 2011 and he won it again last year, beating Hector's Choice (who subsequently went on to win at Cheltenham) by some eleven lengths. Nacarat arrives here just 1lb higher than that win last year and I expect another strong show from the front today.

Wyck Hill will be (quite rightly) strongly fancied today and his market support will help us get a decent price for our selection and the general consensus at 11am was that we're looking at an 8 to 9/1 shot, which seems quite fair to me ( I had 8/1 in my mind earlier) and so the call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Nacarat at 9/1 BOG. I've gone with bet365 today, but for your preferred bookmaker...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 3.50 Kempton, whilst...

...you can view today's racecard here.

***P.S. If you're not already on, Paddy Power are offering your money back if we finish second to Wyck Hill.***

Stat of the Day, 6th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 06/02/13

Stat of the Day: 06/02/13

Stat of the Day, 6th February 2013

Another disappointment for us yesterday as Mazovian seemed to go off too hard in a bid to hit the front early on and eventually flattened out mid-race, trailing home ahead of only two others in a nine-runner race. The only bright spot was the fact that some of you got on at 16/1, some at 10/1 and the official line was 9/1, so we all managed to beat the market: SP was 7/1.

It's the late, late show today as we wait for the last race of the day. It's a Class 5, 6 furlong handicap on the Polytrack, as 12 runners are set to contest the...

8.05 Kempton

Garry Monk isn't often seen down at Kempton. In fact, he has only sent five runners in 2012/3, which is less than 10% of his 52 entrants in that time. He seems to have preferred the tracks at Lingfield and Wolverhampton, sending 24 of those 52 horses there.

His record here at Kempton in that time is pretty good and I'd expect him to continue that today. Despite only being represented five times, he has saddled up two winners at 11/2 and 7/2, as well as a 4/1 runner-up. It is admittedly a small sample size, but all those runs have occurred in the last 14 weeks, so Kempton seems to be a place he feels he can get a result from, if the race is carefully selected. The five races have made a small, but welcome 6pts profit for win bets and E/W backers have made 7.5pts. All very handy off a small number of bets.

As Garry's only run five horses here in 14 weeks, he's hardly likely to come here mob handed and today is no exception: just the runner for him this evening and that's the horse responsible for the 7/2 win I mentioned earlier, Lucky Mark.

Lucky Mark appreciated the drop back in trip to today's 6f when he dominated the field from start to finish over Course & Distance  last time out. He had Lady Prodee behind him when winning that day and despite a 5lb rise in the weights, he should confirm that form today.

I appreciate the extra weight will be a factor but any repeat of that last showing some thirteen days ago will give him a decent chance in his bid for a third win in six outings on Polytrack this winter. The fact that he has also won over 7f this winter should stand him in good stead too, when it comes to stamina in case he has to grind out a result.

That C&D win was his only race here at Kempton, so he defends an unbeaten record, I suppose and if things fall his way, he has every opportunity to extend that short sequence.

He might not have it all his own way and it will be interesting to see what happens if he can't control the race. That minor doubt allied to the rise in weights says that an E/W bet is a sensible option, so today's play is  a 0.5pts E/W bet on Lucky Mark at 13/2 BOG with William Hill (as of 10.10am), but you really should...

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Stat of the Day, 30th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 30/01/13

Stat of the Day: 30/01/13

Stat of the Day, 30th January 2013

The less said about yesterday, the better! A very poor performance from our selection as he trailed home last of thirteen.

We're sticking to the all-weather again today and I'm looking to a man in form to help me regain mine! The race in question is a 10 furlong, Class 5 handicap and we're currently expecting nine runners to go to post for the...

5.20 Kempton

Marco Botti's stats at Kempton throughout his career have always been more than respectable: a 16% strike rate and a profit on stakes of almost 20% from a decent sample size of 341 runners. However, his runners are in a rich vein of form here at Kempton of late. In fact, his last five representatives have all won and he now looks to find a sixth Kempton winner inside eleven days.

Marco's sole entry today comes in the shape of Canary Wharf, an interesting prospect in today's open-looking contest.

This horse was placed twice in four Irish runs for AP O'Brien, before switching to Mr Botti's yard, where he won on debut. He has run three times since then, initially off a mark of 79 and it's fair to say he hasn't set the world on fire.

However, the yard is in great form and Canary Wharf now competes off a handy-looking 73 and is dropped down a class to Class 5 today and these changes could very well make the difference to restart his progress.

Adam Kirby is on board today and he's riding well at present and was also in the saddle for Canary Wharf's afore-mentioned victory at Wolverhampton. Adam has also been successful in 7 of his last 17 rides for the Botti yard.

It is a fairly open race today and the sensible/safe option is going to be the E/W route, so I'm taking a 0.5pt E/W bet on Canary Wharf at 6/1 BOG with Corals, but you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.20 Kempton

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 16/01/13

Stat of the Day: 16/01/13

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2013

Shirazz wasn't disgraced yesterday on debut, but she did only finish in mid-division as the market suggested she would. She was a little off the pace early doors and had no kick towards the end. Her next run should give a better indication of her future promise.

We're going to stay on the All-Weather today and head South to the banks of the Thames (-ish!) for a two-mile Class 4 Handicap, aka the...

6.15 Kempton

This race is generally a competitive affair, but trainer Laura Mongan has managed to saddle the winner here in both 2010 and 2012 and bids for her third success in four years.

Her entry in today's contest was last year's winner, First Avenue who won this race in 2012 off a mark some 9lbs heavier than today. He has been going well over hurdles lately and enters today on good heart/form, making the top three in five of his last nine races since winning here last January.

The horse's task should be helped today by the booking of in-form claimer Robert Tart, who in addition to bringing his 7lb claim to the table also possesses good profit figures from his races. He has a 32pt level stakes profit for the season and an 52.5pts profit overall on the A/W.

First Avenue won't have it all his own way today, but any repetition of either the form from last year's race or the way he ran recently at Sandown (an unlucky fall at the last denied what looked a victory) should put him there or thereabouts.

At 10.45am, the prices on offer varied from 4/1 to 6/1 and I feel he has a very good chance today, so it's a 1pt win bet on First Avenue at 6/1 BOG with BetVictor. You can, of course, always check the odds on offer elsewhere by taking the opportunity to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 6.15 Kempton

 

Stat of the Day, 28th November 2012

Stat of the Day 28/11/12

Stat of the Day 28/11/12

Stat of the Day, 28th November 2012

Rosoff put in a battling display for us yesterday, but when push came to shove on the run in, he didn't have as much to give as the two horses in front of him. He only went down by a couple of lengths in the end, but nevertheless it's a losing bet, as he could only finish 3rd at 5/2.

No UK turf action today and the ground looks particularly testing over at Limerick. There is, however, an almost overwhelming choice of three (yes, three!) All-Weather cards for us to aim at, so we're to enjoy a teatime spin around the Polytrack at Sunbury-on-Thames, where nine runners will tackle a ten furlong handicap in the...

5.00 Kempton

Today's selection was actually our selection at Kempton last Thursday (22nd November), but he was withdrawn at lunchtime that day. The reasoning behind today's pick is, therefore, pretty much as it was last week!

In the last twelve months or so Michael Squance has had 16 runners in handicap contests here at Kempton, yielding six winners (37.5%) and a total of 10 placed horses (62.5%). Backing each of the 16 runners to a £10 stake has generated a profit of £510.

The bare stats don't always tell the full story, of course and it must be mentioned that the figures are skewed slightly by one horse, today's SotD selection and Michael's only runner anywhere today: Diplomatic.

Diplomatic is a horse that just loves the A/W surfaces as all of his five career wins have been on Polytrack. Aside from a solitary 33/1 win at Lingfield in February, his other four victories have all been here at Kempton, where his record reads 11221012 for 44pts profit.

Michael Squance's record excluding Diplomatic is still creditable, but this horse is rapidly turning into a Kempton specialist. Today, however, represents the horse's first crack at this trip, but has often looked like he wanted to go further in the past. Harry Poulton takes the ride today, this will the third time he's been on board, having finished 2nd at 11/1 a fortnight ago and having won at 25/1 back in October, both races here at Kempton. Harry seems to be able to get a good tune out of the horse and he also takes a very useful 5lbs off today, which should help Diplomatic remain competitive.

The fact that it's the horse's first crack at the longer trip is reflected in the market, but I can't help but feel that William Hill's offer of 8/1 BOG is longer than it should be, so I'm more than happy to take them up on it. Therefore, my play today is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Diplomatic at 8/1 BOG with William Hill, but please feel free to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.00 Kempton

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2012

Stat of the Day 26/11/12

Stat of the Day 26/11/12

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2012

An unwanted day off yesterday, thanks to the weather and it hasn't eased much today either. It's definitely a case of Wet,Wet, Wet, but I'm not sure if love is all around us today!

We do, thankfully, have two meetings taking place, but somewhat strangely they're both on turf, where conditions will be testing to say the least and the A/W card at Southwell has been abandoned! We're expecting severe disruption to the programme this week, but for today we're going to tackle a Listed Mares' Hurdle.

This Class 1 race will be run over 3 miles and half a furlong and there's currently eight runners set to slog it out on ground officially described as soft. More rain is expected, so it could move towards being heavier later for the...

2.05 Kempton

A bit of change of tack for SotD today, our selection isn't a longer-priced E/W shout and her trainer doesn't have a good record at this track. In fact, he has no record at the track at all! But there's still enough stats-based evidence for me to have confidence in finding a winner.

Our trainer today is Limerick-based Charles Byrnes and he makes his Kempton debut today with a decent-looking 7yr old bay mare who has performed really well both over hurdles (like today) and also in chase events.

The lady in question is Knockfierna, whose career record over obstacles reads as eight wins and two places from eighteen starts: four wins and a place from seven over hurdles (4&1/9 when chasing). She hasn't raced over hurdles since last May, but her previous hurdling form (Grade 2 winner last year) gives her a great chance here today and her excellent chasing ability means she shouldn't have any issues jumping.

I've gone with Knockfierna today, mainly due to the testing conditions underfoot, she's sure to relish the mud. Her record over obstacles in ground officially described as Soft or softer reads 72111211O11O6 : seven wins from thirteen. She will be ridden by Davy Russell today for the eighth time, their record together is an impressive 1116116 and they are 3/3 together over hurdles for just shy of 12pts profit at level stakes.

She faces tough opposition today in the form of the Henderson/Geraghty mount: Kells Belle, but there remains some doubts as to whether this one deserves her current mark of 148, meaning she may well find it difficult to concede 8lbs to our selection today and she may also need a run, having been away from the track for over seven months.

All things considered, I think we've a solid chance of returning to the winners' enclosure today and the SotD play is a straight 1pt win bet on Knockfierna at the 3/1 BOG widely available at 9.55 am. I'm using bet365 today (reinvesting some of Saturday's returns), but if you prefer to use a different bookmaker, you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.05 Kempton

Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2012

Stat of the Day 22/11/12

Stat of the Day 22/11/12

Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2012

Livia's Dream came very close to providing us with a much-needed winner last night, as she gamely tried to take the race by the scruff of the neck. It's quite possible that she set off for home a touch too early and it's equally possible that the tussle for the lead took a little too much out of her as she was overhauled in the final yards by a fast finishing 33/1 winner. This meant that it was another E/W placer at an SP of 7/1, backed in from our advised 11/1. A small profit of 0.88pts on the day for us.

The weather continues to play merry with racing today and we've lost the meetings at Hereford, Wincanton & Thurles already, leaving us with just a NH card at Market Rasen and the evening Kempton meeting. We're hardly spoiled for choice, so we'll stay put and look at the day's final contest: a 7-furlong, 14-runner handicap which is the...

7.40 Kempton

In the last twelve months or so Michael Squance has had 16 runners in handicap contests here at Kempton, yielding six winners (37.5%) and a total of 10 placed horses (62.5%). Backing each of the 16 runners to a £10 stake has generated a profit of £510.

The bare stats don't always tell the full story, of course and it must be mentioned that the figures are skewed slightly by one horse, today's SotD selection and Michael's only runner anywhere today: Diplomatic.

Diplomatic is a horse that just loves the A/W surfaces as all of his five career wins have been on Polytrack. Aside from a solitary 33/1 win at Lingfield in February, his other four victories have all been here at Kempton, where his record reads 11221012 for 44pts profit. He is 3 from 5 (plus 1 x 2nd) over today's course and distance.

Michael Squance's record excluding Diplomatic is still creditable, but this horse is rapidly turning into a Kempton specialist. I don't envisage the drop back to 7 furlongs to cause undue problems, but this is offset by the fact that our selection is bottom weight in today's race.

At 9.55am the best price available was 11/2 BOG generally, so it's a straight 1pt win bet on Diplomatic at 11/2 BOG. I'm using Paddy Power today, but you can take your pick this morning by availing yourselves of the opportunity to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 7.40 Kempton