Stat of the Day, 4th March 2013
SotD provided me with another of those "bang your head in frustration" days yesterday. It was a classic case of right stat, wrong race, as Milan Royale (highlighted as decent value at 13/2) was a good 5/1 winner for Malcolm Jefferson, thanks to some excellent riding at the death by Harry Haynes. Unfortunately, I'd plumped for his other chaser Schinken Otto, who was disappointingly 6th, some 12 lengths off the pace.
I know (from the emails received!) a good few of you backed both horses (as I did) and made 5.5pts on the day, so well done to all who did, but the official tally will show another -1pt, I'm afraid.
We're heading South today for the day's last race: a 1m 3f, Class 6 handicap on the Polytrack, where 14 runners are set to contest the...
Paul Burgoyne isn't exactly one of the best known trainers around, but he's currently getting a fine tune out of his runners here at Kempton.
We're just nine weeks into 2013 and Paul's runners here already won three times from eleven races with a further five runners making the places. The win strike rate of 27.3% has produced profits of 38.5pts (+350% POI), whilst E/W backers have enjoyed a 72.7% strike rate on their way to 54pts (+222.6%).
As is often the case for SotD, Paul has just one entrant today: Irene Kennet.
Irene Kennet is a 6yr old bay mare who has shown bags of improvement over 1m4f here at this track (3112 in her four starts) since switching to handicap company and ran really well here last time out in her hat-trick bid. She was by no means disgraced that day, though, finishing 2nd by just half a length on Valentine's Day.
Her recent excellent form has, admittedly, resulted by a 4lb rise in the weights, but it is hoped that the slight drop (1f) back in trip to 1m 3f should counteract that extra burden and she still looks a type to improve further.
To some, the new trip and the extra weight will be of minor concern, but there does seem to be enough in the market (as of 10.20 am) for us to hedge our bets with a safety-first approach. I'm confident of her putting in another big run today, but the prudent call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Irene Kennet at 7/1 BOG with Paddy Power, but you can always...