Tag Archives: Kempton racecourse

Stat of the Day, 26th December 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.40 Newcastle : Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG fell at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, close up on inside when fell 5 out)

Boxing Day's pick runs in the...

1.20 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £16,245 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5yr old gelding was a winner LTO, 8 days ago, triumphant on similarly soft ground at Ludlow in another Class 3 handicap chase under today's jockey, Charlie Deutsch.

He's by Walk In The Park, whose soft ground handicap chasers are 6 from 19 (31.6%) SR) for 26.4pts (+138.9% ROI) over the last four years, including...

  • 6/15 (40%) for 30.4pts (+202.6%) at 2m1.5f to 3m2f
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 32.4pts (+249.1%) at 2/1 to 10/1
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.05pts (+72.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3 from 4 (75%) for 8.05pts (+201.3%) when all three of the above are in play as they are today.

This horse hails from the in-form Venetia Williams yard, one that thrives at this time of year and does well in poorer conditions. In fact, Venetia's runners are 13 from 26 (50% SR) for 31.6pts (+121.6% ROI) since the morning of the 11th December, whilst more generally over the last five Decembers, her Class 2 to 4 handicappers are 41/160 (25.6% SR) for 101.9pts (+63.7% ROI), including...

  • 38/141 (27%) for 108.9pts (+77.3%) from male runners
  • 35/102 (34.3%) for 121.7pts (+119.3%) with 4-7 yr olds
  • 34/120 (28.3%) for 103.9pts (+86.6%) in races worth £4k to £17k to the winner
  • 28/85 (32.9%) for 108.7pts (+127.9%) over 2m3f to 2m7.5f
  • 28/71 (39.4%) for 62.2pts (+87.6%) at 2/1 to 5/1
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.4pts (+74.5%) on Soft ground
  • 17/60 (28.3%) for 25.1pts (+41.9%) under Charlie Deutsch
  • and 16/73 (21.9%) for 38.9pts (+53.3%) at Class 3...

...whilst 4-7 yr old males sent off at 2/1 to 5/1 over 2m3f to 2m7.5f chasing pots of £4 to 17k are 14/22 (63.6% SR) for 44.8pts (+203.6% ROI) and these include 8/13 (61.5%) for Charlie Deutsch, 7/13 (53.9%) at Class 3, 7/10 (70%) on soft ground and 3 from 4 (75%) with Charlie riding a Class 3 runner on soft ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.50pm on Christmas Day. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.15 Lingfield : Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Led until 5th, lost place 5 out, well beaten before 3 out )

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maazel @ 7/2 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was a runner-up at Lingfield just 4 days ago and gets the opportunity to go one better off the same mark today. He had the worst of the draw at the weekend, but has a more favourable stall today and is expected to go well again.

Trainer Lee Carter's horses are in great form, all eight runners over the last fortnight have made the frame, with two of them taking Gold, including a win and a place from two efforts here at Kempton.

His record with quick returners is decent, especially in similar circumstances to today, as...

...since the start of 2016, Lee Carter's Class 6 A/W handicappers sent off at odds ranging from Evens to 16/1 after less than three weeks rest are 11 from 49 (22.5% SR) for 77.5pts (+158.1% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 76.3pts (+200.8%) from male runners
  • 10/30 (33.3%) for 84.3pts (+281.1%) from 5-9 yr olds

...whilst 5-9 yr old males are 10 from 28 (35.7% SR) for 86.3pts (+308.3% ROI) and you could stop there and back all of them, but if you wanted to drill down further...

  • 5 yr olds are 5/12 (41.7%) for 41.7pts (+347.7%)
  • LTO runners-up are 5/8 (62.5%) for 47.4pts (+592.4%)
  • over 7f, it's 3/9 (33.3%) for 33.8pts (+375.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 36.8pts (+613%) over 7 furlongs
  • LTO runners-up are 3/5 (60%) for 37.8pts (+756%) over 7f
  • 5yr olds are 3/4 (75%) for 38.8pts (+970%) after finishing second LTO
  • and 5yr old, LTO runners-up are also 3/4 (75%) for 38.8pts (+970%) over a 7f trip...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Maazel @ 7/2 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 and SkyBet respectively at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th November 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.50 Sedgefield : Tonto's Spirit @ 7/2 2nd at 6/1 (Prominent until 2nd, chased leaders, went 2nd before 2 out, no impression on winner, kept on)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.10 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stringybark Creek @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap Chase for 3yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was a course winner here LTO, 8 days ago when making all and staying on well to defeat our SotD pick, Kwela, by half a length over 7 furlongs at Class 4. The way he stayed on suggests an extra furlong should be fine and his quest is aided by a drop in class today.

He does however, carry a 5lb penalty for that win, but 3 of the extra 5 are accounted for by the booking of jockey Thomas Greatrex for the ride.

Trainer David Loughnane has been amongst the winners lately, landing 3 of 10 (30% SR) for 54.75pts (+547.5% ROI) over the last 10 days, including two winners from three here at Kempton, where his runners are 7 from 45 (15.6% SR) for 100.45pts (+223.2% ROI) in A/W handicaps since the start of 2017, with the following of note today...

  • 7/39 (17.9%) for 106.45pts (+272.9%) after 6-45 days off track
  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 107.45pts (+282.8%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 104.3pts (+359.7%) from males
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 25.2pts (+193.9%) at odds of 9/2 to 10/1
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 47.78pts (+796.3%) in November...

...whilst males racing over 6f to 1m after 6 to 45 days rest are 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 112.3pts (+534.8% ROI), including 3/7 (42.9%) for 19.07pts (+272.4%) at 9/2 to 8/1, 2/5 (40%) for 48.78pts (+975.6%) in November and 1 from 1 with all the above in place.

Obviously Stringybark Creek ticks all those above boxes too and his suitability for today's task is also hopefully highlighted by looking at his career stats of 10 wins from 56 (5/19 on A/W) that include of relevance today...

  • 10/37 in fields of 9-14 runners (inc 5/17 on A/W)
  • 9/47 in handicaps (4/16 on A/W)
  • 8/31 at the age of 4 & 5 (3/12 on A/W)
  • 8/28 at 7 to 8.5 furlongs (3/12 on A/W)
  • 6/24 for David Loughnane (1/6 on A/W)
  • 6/14 at odds of 5/1 to 9/1 (2/5 on A/W)
  • 5/14 going right handed (2/5 on A/W)
  • 4/10 on Polytrack (obviously all on A/W)
  • 3/9 in Class 5 contests worth more than £3.5k (N/A on A/W)
  • 2/5 here at Kempton (all on A/W)
  • 2/3 during November/December (all on A/W)
  • and 1 from 1 in November (LTO on A/W)

...whilst based around those subsets above, Stringybark Creek is 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) for 26.5pts (+220.8% ROI) when sent off at 11/4 to 17/2 in 9-14 runner handicaps over 7 to 9.5 furlongs since the start of 2018...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Stringybark Creek @ 15/2 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & also Hills (although the latter was non-BOG until midnight) with plenty of 7/1 available elsewhere at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th November 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.40 Ascot : If The Cap Fits @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1  (In touch, headway 5 out, every chance after 3 out, led last, hard ridden, stayed on gamely to win by half a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.35 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Doctor Dex @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner (was 12!), Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4.5f on Good/Good to Soft ground worth £8,447 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding won two of four starts in the first fourteen weeks of the year, before then going back to his box for seven months. He then reappeared 23 days ago to make a successful chasing debut, comfortably landing a Class 3 contest at Ascot and showing little (if any) signs of rustiness. Jonathan Burke was in the saddle that day and he retains the ride here.

To date, the horse's record includes the following of relevance/interest today...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 on Good/Good to Soft
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 on Good
  • 3 wins from 5 in 2019
  • 3 wins from 5 under jockey Jonathan Burke
  • 2 wins from 3 as favourite
  • 1 from 1 over fences (from LTO)
  • and 1 from 1 at Class 3 (also from LTO)

He is trained by Tom George, who doesn't bring many handicap chasers on the 100-mile trip East to this venue from his base in Stroud, Gloucestershire, but those that have made the relatively short journey have won 15 of 69 (21.7% SR) for 28.1pts (+40.8% ROI) profit since 2012 and these figures include...

  • 14/47 (29.8%) for 33.47pts (+71.2%) at odds of 7/4 to 8/1
  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 42.25pts (+93.9%) within two months of their last run
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 40.68pts (+104.3%) from 6-8 yr olds
  • 9/40 (22.5%) for 20.69pts (+51.7%) since 2016
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 22.51pts (+173.2%) with favourites (outright, joint or co-favs)
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 30.6pts (+138.9%) over this 2m4.5f course and distance
  • 6/20 (30%) for 33.25pts (+166.25%) from November to January inclusive
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 2.43pts (+16.2%) from LTO winners

...whilst based upon the above, 6-9 yr olds sent off at 7/4 to 8/1 within 45 days of their last run are 11 from 21 (52.4% SR) for 44.24pts (+210.7% ROI), ie 157% of the original profit from just 30% of the bets, including...

  • 6/13 (43.2%) for 21.16pts (+162.8%) since 2016
  • 6/8 (75%) for 17.63pts (+220.3%) from favs
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 10.22pts (+170.3%) with favs since 2016...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Doctor Dex @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Betfair, BetVictor, Hills & Paddy Power at 7.30pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.50 Kempton : Kwela @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 13/2 (Keen in touch, pushed along and headway on outer 2f out, ran on final furlong, went 2nd close home and beaten by half a length. I can't help but think we might have been counting our money had she got going a little earlier)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

7.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sir Prize @ 5/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, I'm keeping it simple and hoping for one more good performance from a horse and a trainer/jockey combo that have had a good 2019 so far...

Our horse is a 4 yr old gelding with 6 top three finishes (including 3 winners) from 7 starts this year and will fare better today dropping back in trip to a mile and a half where he was a runner-up, only beaten by a nose over this class, course and distance two starts ago.

To date, his handicap record includes the following of relevance today...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 here at Kempton
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 5 over course and distance
  • 2 wins from 3 carrying 9st 2lbs

The trainer/jockey combo is Dean Ivory & Joey Haynes and they are 6 from 40 (15% SR) for 38.8pts (+97.1% ROI) in handicaps this year, including of note here...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 59.6pts (+496.3%) with 4 yr olds
  • 4/18 (22.2%) for 23.7pts (+131.6%) on the A/W
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 58pts (+386.7%) with horses rested for 3-8 weeks
  • 3/6 (50%) for 59.7pts (+995.5%) with 4yr old horses rested for 3-8 weeks
  • 3/6 (50%) for 28.4pts (+473.8%) with 4 yr olds on the A/W
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 28.5pts (+950%) with 4yr olds on the A/W returning from 3-8 weeks off the track...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Sir Prize @ 5/1 non-BOG until raceday as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Tuesday. If you think it might drift, you can sacrifice half a point to go BOG with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th November 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.30 Plumpton : Velvet Cognac @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 5/1 (Led until 1st, prominent, led 5th, headed next, ridden after 3 out, stayed on same pace last and beaten by 2.25 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kwela @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3yr old filly comes here on top of her game, aiming to complete a hat-trick of wins, all at this venue in a little over 8 weeks. She landed a Class 5 contest over 6f back in September 57 days ago before winning over this class and trip 30 days later (ie 27 days ago), so she's on familiar territory after a similar rest period. 5lb claimer Georgia Dobie was in the saddle on both occasions, so it's no surprise to see her retain the ride today.

Amongst this fillies career stats are some reasons for further optimism, as she has...

  • 3 wins and 2 places from 9 in handicaps (2+2 from 4 on A/W)
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 under Georgina Dobie (2+2 from 5 on A/W)
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 6 in cheekpieces (2+1 from 3 on A/W)
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 6 over 7f (1+1 from 2 on A/W)
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 5 on the A/W (all on Polytrack)
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 here at Kempton
  • she won her only previous effort over course and distance (LTO, of course)

She is trained by Eve Johnson Houghton, whose LTO winners sent off at Evens to 15/2 in handicaps are 19 from 80 (23.75% SR) for 7.72pts (+9.65% ROI) since the start of 2017, including...

  • 18/68 (26.4%) for 17.22pts (+25.3%) after 11-45 days off track
  • 11/44 (25%) for 9.76pts (+22.2%) over the same trip as LTO
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 10.76pts (+67.2%) over the same course and distance as LTO
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.15pts (+62.7%) on the A/W (all on Polytrack)
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 9.98pts (+76.8%) in fields of 12-15 runners
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.61pts (+82.6%) during the final quarter of the year
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.32pts (+38.6%) with Georgina Dobie in the saddle
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 5.3pts (+106%) with a jockey claiming 5lbs

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Kwela @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, 888Sport & SkyBet at 6.20pm on Monday, whilst to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th November 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.50 Wincanton : Danse Idol @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Bit keen chasing leaders on inside, went 2nd 5th, not fluent next, lost 2nd after 3 out, weakening when mistake next)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The King's Baby @ 3/1 BOG 

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Mares Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?...

The horse...is an 8 yr old mare who has finished 33112 in her last five runs, so she's clearly in good nick and these include winning both her starts over fences this year. These were over today's 2m5f trip and also over 2m7f, so she shouldn't be found wanting for stamina either. Overall, she has 2 wins and a place from three efforts at today's trip.

Our trainer...is Harry Whittington, whose horses claimed 2 wins and a place from 6 attempts last week, whilst his chasers are 31 from 141 (22% SR) for 6.91pts (+4.9% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2014. As you know, I don't follow anyone blindly and always seek to improve the percentages whilst reducing the number of bets placed. Any filters imposed must be logical, of course, and with today's contest in mind, Harry's chasers are...

  • 31/118 (26.3%) for 29.91pts (+25.3%) in fields of 4-12 runners
  • 26/69 (37.7%) for 24.46pts (+35.5%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 24/82 (29.3%) for 22.85pts (+27.9%) in fields of 4-8 runners
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 29.48pts (+70.2%) in November/December
  • 10/41 (24.4%) for 5.00pts (+12.2%) at Class 3
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 15.08pts (+62.9%) in November
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 22.01pts (+115.9%) after less than three weeks rest
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 4.08pts (+136%) here at Kempton

And our jockey...Richard Johnson may never have actually ridden one of Harry's chasers before, but the pair are 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 8.73pts (+145.5% ROI) over hurdles, including 1 from 1 here at Kempton.

Richard's own record here at Kempton is good and shows 8 winners from 39 (20.5% SR) for 7.82pts (+20% ROI) in handicap chases since the start of 2014, including of relevance today...

  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 12.82pts (+37.7%) over trips of 2m2f and beyond
  • 8/32 (25%) for 14.82pts (+46.3%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 17.82pts (+61.4%) at Class 2/3
  • 7/31 (22.6%) for 11.11pts (+35.9%) on horses aged 7 or older
  • and 7/21 (33.3%) for 14.37pts (+68.4%) when sent off shorter than 6/1

...whilst on horses like The King's Baby who tick all five above boxes ie aged 7+ at sub-6/1 odds in 5-10 runner, Class 2/3 handicap chases over 2m2f and beyond, Richard Johnson is 6 from 10 (60% SR) for 20.66pts (+206.6% ROI) with two of the four losers claiming runner-up finishes...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on The King's Baby @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betway, Hills & Ladbrokes at 5.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.40 Kempton : Purple Paddy @ 5/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, hard pressed inside final furlong, held on close home to win by a head)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.10 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner...

Why?...

Clive Cox's 2 yr old colt is 2 from 2 so far ahead of today's handicap/nursery debut and has already won here at Kempton, won at Class 4 and twice under today's jockey Adam Kirby. He was last seen six weeks ago landing a 6f contest as an odds-on favourite on this track and now steps back up to Class 4 and tackles 7f for the first time.

Sent off at 5/6 LTO, 42 days ago, he is flagged up on my odds on LTO winners micro-system, which tells me that such runners racing in All-Weather handicaps, 31-60 days later are 33 from 89 (37.1% SR) for 64.3pts (+72.3% ROI) since the start of 2016 and whilst that looks compelling enough to just back them blindly, here are some applicable filters to consider...

  • 28/58 (48.3%) for 51.2pts (+88.4%) at odds of 11/10 to 5/1
  • 23/56 (41.1%) for 70.9pts (+126.5%) on Polytrack
  • 18/43 (41.9%) for 49.9pts (+116%) over trips up to a mile
  • 18/36 (50%) for 38.6pts (+107.3%) in fields of 7-10 runners
  • 14/33 (42.4%) for 52.1pts (+157.8%) at Class 4
  • 14/33 (42.4%) for 42.2pts (+127.8%) upped 1 class
  • 14/23 (54.2%) for 19.3pts (+80.6%) with 1 previous track win
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 43.8pts (+292%) here at Kempton
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.13pts (+62.6%) upped in trip by a furlong
  • 4/5 (80%) for 12.7pts (+254%) with 2 yr olds

...whilst those sent off at odds of 11/10 to 5/1 over trips of 5-11 furlongs on Polytrack are 17 from 27 (63%) for 43.9pts (+162.6%).

Meanwhile, Clive Cox has an excellent record with his handicap debutants in recent years with those sent off at 10/1 or shorter winning 30 of 115 (26.1% SR) for 58.9pts (+51.2% ROI) since the start of 2016, including of note/relevance today...

  • 24/79 (30.4%) for 65.2pts (+82.5%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 22/67 (32.8%) for 51.8pts (+77.4%) with male runners
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.6pts (+74.7%) over trips of 7f and beyond
  • 15/29 (51.7%) for 60pts (+206.8%) on the A/W
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 14.5pts (+25%) using jockey Adam Kirby
  • 12/24 (50%) for 39.9pts (+166.3%) on Polytrack
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 25pts (+73.5%) stepping up in class
  • 9/27 (33.3%) for 25.8pts (+95.6%) with 2 yr olds
  • 4/12 (33.3%)for 9.86pts (+82.2%) here at Kempton

Now you can mix and match the above to your heart's content, but interestingly, males in 6-11 runner A/W contests over 6f and beyond are 7 from 7 (100% SR) for 31pts (+443.4% ROI), including 3/3 for 9pts over 7f, 2/2 for 6.5pts at Kempton and 1/1 for 3.6pts over course and distance...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 (the first to show their hand) at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th November 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.40 Plumpton : Sir Egbert @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/10 (Led, headed when not fluent 3 out, soon outpaced, rallied approaching last, kept on well under pressure, but beaten by a length and a half)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Purple Paddy @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, in what looks a poor contest on a poor day of racing, I'm going to try and nick a winner with a horse that seems like it is best suited to the conditions it'll face today. A little bit like a football striker on a lean run who just needs any goal to get him going again, I'm not fussy about the ugliness of the selection and reasoning today, but I do expect a win.

So, I've gone with a 4 yr old gelding who was a winner over course and distance last time out and although he's now 4lbs higher for that win, the booking of useful 7lb claimer Mark Crehan more than compensates today.

Our boy has 2 wins and 2 further places from 12 starts so far, mainly on the A/W and I think he's the best suited here, because he has...

  • 2 wins and 2 places from 7 here at Kempton
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 6 over a 1 mile trip
  • 2 wins and 1 place from 6 at Class 6
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 4 over course and distance
  • 2 wins from 4 in 14-runner races
  • and 2 wins and a 1 place over course and distance at Class 6

I did suggest it wasn't going to be in-depth or pretty, but the above allied to an apparent lack of real recent form amongst his rivals is enough to convince me...

...to place...a 1pt win bet on Purple Paddy @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by a handful of firms at 5.35pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th October 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.30 Leopardstown : Flower Garland @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Soon raced in 4th, pushed along into straight and effort, 3rd inside final furlong, kept on without reaching winner, grabbed 2nd on line)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bryn Du @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 2 yr old colt is William Haggas' only runner of the day and is due to be ridden by Oisin Murphy who is 39/192 (20.3% SR) for 35.1pts (+18.3% ROI) in handicaps here at Kempton in the evens to 10/1 price range since the start of 2017, including of relevance today...

  • 23/95 (24.2%) for 44.7pts (+47%) on runners placed in the first three last time out
  • 14/63 (22.2%) for 28.7pts (+45.5%) on those last seen 11-20 days earlier
  • 12/55 (21.8%) for 19.8pts (+36%) at Class 6
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 29.9pts (+106.8%) from those placed in the first three LTO, 11-20 days earlier
  • and 6/15 (40%) for 8.11pts (+54.1%) on 2 yr olds...

...but as the jockey isn't the main focus here today, we should now take a closer look at the trainer, the esteemed Mr William Haggas, whose own personal records include 22 winners from 81 (27.2% SR) for profits of 13.7pts at an ROI of 16.9% with runners sent off at odds of 5/4 to 5/1 on this track since the start of 2016 and these include of note today...

  • 17/53 (32.1%) for 24.5pts (+46.2%) during September to January
  • 15/50 (30%) for 13.5pts (+27%) from male runners
  • 12/40 (30%) for 14.7pts (+36.7%) from those in the first three home LTO
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 6.4pts (+24.6%) with horses rested for 11-25 days
  • 4/8 (50%) for 9.25pts (+115.7%) at Class 6
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 4.16pts (+83.2%) with 2 yr olds

...whilst males racing during Sept-Jan after a top 3 finish LTO are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 17.3pts (+123.6% ROI) profit. 

Bryn Du has run on Tapeta and Turf so far in his short 5-race career and now tackles Polytrack for the first time, so it's worth noting that William Haggas' 2-5 yr olds with 1-6 previous career runs are 66 from 176 (37.5% SR) for 46.2pts (+26.2% ROI) since the start of 2017 when tackling a new A/W surface for the first time, including...

  • 64/140 (45.7%) for 59.4pts (+42.5% ROI) at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 61/153 (39.9%) for 60.3pts (+39.4%) with horses rested for more than 15 days
  • 42/105 (40%) for 30.6pts (+29.1%) with male runners
  • 34/99 (34.3%) for 16.9pts (+17%) on Polytrack
  • 25/62 (40.3%) for 34.1pts (+55%) in handicaps
  • 17/42 (40.5%) for 11.24pts (+26.8%) during October & November
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%) at Class 6

...with males sent off shorter than 6/1 after being rested for more than 15 days winning 38 of 79 (48.1% SR) for 49pts (+62% ROI)...

And finally (!) for today, it might not have been the yard's plan to have just one runner, but the UK weather has made it that way, but since the start of 2016, when the Haggas yard's only runner of the day was a handicapper sent off at 7/1 or shorter, they've had 25 winners from 72 (34.7% SR) for 25.4pts (+35.3% ROI) profit with the bulk of the success coming on the All-Weather at 20/46 (43.5% SR) for 39.6pts (+86.1% ROI), from which...

  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.39pts (+114%) over trips of 6-7 furlongs
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 15.66pts (+142.4%) here at Kempton
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 4.68pts (+156%) at Class 6...

...all of which steered me to...a 1pt win bet on Bryn Du @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, or 11/4 non-BOG from Hills at 4.30pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!