Tag Archives: Kelso racecourse

Stat of the Day, 14th February 2019

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.00 Southwell : Liamba @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 6/4 (With leaders, led 2f out, headed approaching final furlong, kept on and every chance inside final furlong, held towards finish

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mr Mercurial @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 4-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ Hunters Chase over 2m7½f on Good/Good to Soft ground worth £2808 to the winner... 

Why?

On a day of mediocre racing littered with small fields and short-priced favourites, I'm opposing the 4/9 odds-on jolly with what is effectively the "outsider of three", as Purcells Bridge seems to have been deemed out of contention.

There is an old theory that you should back the outsider of three and with such runners winning 38 of 223 chases (17% SR) for 96.6pts (+43.3% ROI) since the start of 2016, there might well be some mileage in that angle, but as this is still technically a four-runner race, we'll bookmark that stat for possible later usage!

The reason I'm siding with this one is that I think the market is wrong in (a) going 4/9 about the fav and (b) going as long as 7/2 about our boy who's already won 6 of 16 (37.5% SR) over fences for level stakes profits of 12.41pts (+77.6% ROI) and his suitability for the task ahead is shown by the following derived from that 6/16 record...

  • in Hunter Chases (not novice or maiden) : 6/11 (54.5%) for 17.41pts (+158.3%)
  • at odds of evens to 11/2 : 5/9 (55.5%) for 17.57pts (+195.2%)
  • on Good/Good to Soft ground: 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.07pts (+100.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/3 (100%) for 13.45pts (+448.4%)
  • in 2018 : 3/3 (100%) for 11.78pts (+392.7%)
  • over 3m (no run at this slightly shorter trip yet) : 3/3 (100%) for 10.08pts (+336%)
  • after a layoff of 8 to 10 months : 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.23pts (+274.5%)
  • and in fields of 3/4 runners : 2/2 (100%) for 6.3pts (+315%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Mr Mercurial @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.35pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th December 2018

Friday's Pick was...

2.20 Lingfield : Wotadoll @ 7/2 BOG 9th at 3/1 (Raced wide in touch, ridden and no impression over 2f out, soon weakened)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

12.50 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Alizee de Janeiro @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m2f on Good ground worth £4289 to the winner...  

Why?

This 8 yr old mare has won two of her last three outings, including an LTO success seven weeks ago and has won 3 times and made the frame a further four times from nine visits to Kelso and has a record of 2 wins and a place from five runs with today's jockey, Derek Fox.

Trainer Lucinda Russell's Kelso handicap hurdlers are 11 from 68 (16.2% SR) for 25.33pts (+37.3% ROI) over the last four years and these include...

  • 7/44 (15.9%) for 26.24pts (+59.6%) over trips of 2m to 2m5f
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 40pts (+142.8%) racing 26 to 75 days after their last run
  • 3/19 (15.8%) for 24.36pts (+128.2%) in December/January
  • 4/22 (18.2%) for 12.26pts (+55.7%) on Good ground
  • and 7/17 (41.2%) for 13.54pts (+79.7%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter.

This mare is a "daughter" of Network, whose offspring are 37/153 (24.2% SR) for 63.68pts (+41.6% ROI) ovdr 2m1f to 2m4f over the last two years, from which...

  • those rested for a month or linger are 20/67 (29.9%) for 81.44pts (+121.6%)
  • hurdlers are 14/58 (24.1%) for 26.7pts (+46%)
  • Class 4 runners are 11/46 (23.9%) for 12.1pts (+26.3%)
  • LTO winners are 9/25 (36%) for 0.57pts (+2.28%)
  • females are 8/22 (36.4%) for 36.6pts (+166.3%)
  • and 8/9 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 22.24pts (+111.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Alizee de Janeiro @ 7/2 BOG, as was available from Betbright & SkyBet at 6.20pm on Friday evening, but you could get another half a point from Coral. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th May 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

3.35 Brighton : Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Took keen hold, held up in last pair, slight stumble over 6f out, headway on outside over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, no chance with winner)

We now continue with Wednesday's...

4.15 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 3,  2m1f Handicap Chase (3yo+) on good ground worth £7538 to the winner... 

Why?

Since Easter last year, this 10 yr old gelding seems to have had a new lease of life, making the frame 5 times from 7 efforts, winning 4 of them! He was a winner when last seen at Carlisle 45 days ago, landing a 2 mile, Class 3 handicap chase by 6 lengths despite it being his comeback from 19 weeks off the track and the third placed horse that day (Pistol Park) has since finished 2nd and then 1st at this level.

That most recent win gives Sudski Star the following records of relevance today...

  • 9/22 with a tongue tie (6/11 over fences)
  • 8/22 going left handed (5/12)
  • 7/18 in fields of 1-7 runners (5/12)
  • 5/15 after a rest of 16-60 days (2/5)
  • 6/14 on good ground (3/8)
  • 6/9 when priced at 4/1 and shorter (4/6)
  • 4/9 here at Kelso (2/4)
  • 4/8 in blinkers (2/3)
  • 5/7 in April/May (3/4)
  • 2/7 at Class 3 (2/5)
  • 4/6 at 2m1f to 2m2.5f (3/5)
  • and 2/3 over course and distance (all over fences)

He is trained nearby in the Borders by Harriet Graham, who has had 10 NH winners from 54 runners over the past two years with this decent enough 18.5% strike rate generating profits of 49.2pts at an ROI of some 91.1% and under today's conditions, those runners are...

  • 9/44 (20.5%) for 28.75pts (+65.3%) in handicaps
  • 9/41 (22%) for 55.9pts (+136.3%) from male runners
  • 8/32 (25%) for 34.42pts (+107.6%) from her 9-11 yr olds
  • 5/28 (17.9%) for 5.85pts (+20.9%) here at Kelso
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 58.5pts (+265.9%) at trips shorter than 2m3f
  • 6/20 (30%) for 23.04pts (+115.2%) from March to May inclusive
  • 5/20 (25%) for 15.17pts (+75.9%) on good ground
  • and 3/15 (20%) for 9.22pts (+61.5%) over fences

Finally, since the start of 2016, NH handicappers sired by Piludski are 5/23 (21.7% SR) for 26.5pts (+115.1% ROI) over trips of 2m to 2m4f...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Sudski Star @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Tuesday, although the best price was 4/1 BOG from Bet365 for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th April 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

4.05 Chepstow : Kimberlite Candy @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader, tracked new leader before 3rd, led next, joined 4 out, in command and good jump last, stayed on strongly to win by 10 lengths)

And we kick off a new week via Monday's...

2.40 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Geronimo @ 5/2 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 4,  2m6.5f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on soft ground worth £4289 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding is certainly knocking on the door, having finished as a runner-up on all three starts so far. He can consider himself unlucky not to have won last time out when badly hampered late on by a faller (Luckime, who incidentally won at Taunton last week) contributing to him getting caught and headed close to home causing him to be be beaten by just half a length.

That was his handicap debut and he'd been stepped up in both class and trip, so I'd expect another good show from him today back down at Class 4 and over a trip some 2.5 furlongs shorter, especially as he was some 24 lengths clear of the third placed horse, whilst the narrow winner was more experienced in handicap racing, landing a third win from six attempts.

Stat-wise, since the start of 2013, in UK NH handicaps, horses coming into a contest off the back of three consecutive runner-up finishes finally managed to go one better on 55 of 357 (15.4% SR) occasions, returning profits of 62pts at an ROI of 17.4% and from these 357 "triple bridesmaids"...

  • males are 51/328 (15.6%) for 73.1pts (+22.3%)
  • 6 to 9 yr olds are 43/266 (16.2%) for 97.8pts (+36.8%)
  • those beaten by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO are 33/180 (18.3%) for 106.9pts (+59.4%)
  • in the opening third (Jan-Apr) of the year : 30/175 (17.1%) for 105.4pts (+60.2%)
  • and those ridden by 7lb claimers are 8/38 (21.1%) for 39.9pts (+104.9%)

OR...based around the above, you could save this little micro-system...6 to 9 yr old males in January to May, beaten by 0.25 to 10 lengths (the extra month and bigger margin of defeat gives a better/more reliable sample size) are 23/106 (21.7% SR) for 159.3pts (+150.3% ROI), with 7lb claimers riding 4 winners from 12 (33.3%) for 33.7pts (+280.8%)

I mention the 7lb claimer jockeys, because trainer Sandy Thomson is very adept at booking such jockeys, as his record with them is 22/120 (18.3% SR) for 251.1pts (+209.2% ROI) since the start of 2015...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Geronimo @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th February 2017

Wednesday's Result :

7.20 Kempton : Peaceful Passage @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/8 Never far away in 5th, smooth headway into 2nd over 2f out, switched right 2f out, pushed into lead over 1f out, clear when edged left inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 3.25 lengths

Thursday's pick goes in the...

1.55 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Spanish Fleet @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A pretty simple one this time with a 9 yr old gelding in good form, knocking on the door with three successive runner-up finishes. Ran here at Kelso over 1f shorter LTO 32 days ago on heavy ground at a higher grade and was staying on well, so I'm confident the extra furlong allied to a drop in class will finally get him back over the line.

He's trained by George Bewley, whose chasers are 17/89 (19.1% SR) for 20.2pts (+22.7% ROI) since the start of 2014, with all 17 winners coming from 84 (20.2% SR) handicap contests for profits of 25.2pts at an ROI of 30%.

And, of those 84 handicappers...

  • males are 17/78 (21.8%) for 31.2pts (+40%)
  • those who ran in the last 90 days are 15/71 (21.1%) for 27.4pts (+38.6%)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 15/57 (26.3%) for 26.5pts (+46.5%)
  • on soft/heavy ground : 5/25 (20%) for 7.17pts (+28.7%)
  • those dropping down a grade are 6/20 (30%) for 21.5pts (+107.5%)
  • those ridden by Brian Hughes are 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.6pts (+18.6%)
  • and those up in trip by 1/1.5 furlongs are 5/9 (55/6%) for 22.4pts (+248.7%)

AND...males priced at 8/1 and shorter within 90 days of their last run are 13/46 (28.3% SR) for 26.7pts (+58% ROI)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Spanish Fleet @ 10/3 BOG which was widely available at 5.55pm on Wednesday, whilst those lucky/quick enough to get on with Betbright can/could get 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 21st March 2016

Saturday's Result :

5.05 Gowran Park: Fr Humphrey @ 7/1 BOG PU at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, slightly slow 2nd, not fluent 6th, pecked 5 out, soon lost place, no extra and eased approaching straight, pulled up before 3 out)

Monday's runner goes in the...

4.00 Kelso:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Captain Redbeard @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Since the start of 2011, Stuart Coltherd's NH handicappers are 48/340 (14.1% SR) for 162.9pts (+47.9% ROI) profits, of which...

  • males are 40/272 (14.7% SR) for 148.6pts (+54.6% ROI)
  • those racing over 2m to 2m6.5f are 39/260 (15% SR) for 160.7pts (+61.8% ROI)
  • hurdlers are 15/135 (11.1% SR) for 71.9pts (+53.3% ROI)
  • on good to soft ground : 10/78 (12.8% SR) for 86.2pts (+110.5% ROI)
  • 7yr olds are 15/71 (21.1% SR) for 52.4pts (+73.8% ROI)
  • at Kelso : 9/57 (15.8% SR) for 162.9pts (+47.9% ROI)
  • at Class 3 : 7/44 (15.9% SR) for 56.2pts (+127.8% ROI)

And in addition to the trainer-based figures above, it's also worth noting that since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers running 3 to 60 days after a win by 4 lengths or more in a handicap hurdle last time out are 288/1113 (25.9% SR) for 223.3pts at an ROI of 20.1%.

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Captain Redbeard at 4/1 BOG. That price is very widely available, so the what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 18th February 2016

Wednesday's Result :

5.20 Kempton: Star Links @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Awkwardly away, soon in touch on outer, driven over 2f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong, never troubled leaders)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

3.40 Kelso:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Takingrisks @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding is still unexposed after just three starts showing steady improvement each time in a run reading 421 that culminated in a course and distance win here 51 days ago and he'll now attempt to double up in a race that his trainer/jockey won last year.

Trainer Nicky Richards' horses go well on heavy ground...

...winning 34 of 101 (33.7% SR) for 59.8pts (+59.2% ROI) since the start of 2011, broken down as follows:

  • in races over 2m3.5f to 3m0.5f : 26/60 (43.3% SR) for 76.9pts (+128.2% ROI)
  • in handicaps : 22/58 (37.9% SR) for 55.9pts (+96.3% ROI)
  • over hurdles : 20/57 (35.1% SR) for 43.1pts (+75.6% ROI)
  • at Class 3 : 12/29 (41.4% SR) for 39.9pts (+137.5% ROI)

And in hcp hurdle races at trips shorter than 3m1f : 13/27 (48.2% SR) for 38.8pts at an ROI of 143.8% with Class 3 runners winning 6 of 11 (54.5% SR) for 23.2pts (+210.5% ROI)

Takingrisks won over C&D LTO...

Since the start of 2008, handicap hurdlers with CD next to their name who won last time out (anywhere) went on to score another C&D success on 291 pf 1479 (19.7% SR) occasions, generating level stakes profits of 195.6pts (+13.3% ROI). Such runners turned out 11 to 60 days of that last winning run are 199/1066 (18.7% SR) for 181.3pts (+17.1% ROI), whilst Class 3 handicap hurdlers are 70/323 (21.7% SR) for 174.6pts (+54.2% ROI)

Class 3 runners turned out 11 to 60 days after their last run are 53/239 (22.2% SR) for 173.1pts (+72.4% ROI), with those racing over trips of 2m3f to 3m1f winning 35 of 125 (28% SR) for 196pts (+156.8% ROI).

Takingrisks makes his handicap debut here...

Since the start of 2014 Nicky Richards' handicap debutants are 9 from 18 (50% SR) for 35.3pts (+196.1% ROI) profit with hurdlers winning 8 of 17 (47.1% SR) for 31pts (+182.3% ROI) profit, whilst runners here at Kelso are 2 from 2 for 9.32pts (+466% ROI).

And the trainer/jockey/track stats?

Since the start of 2014 in Kelso handicap hurdle contests, Brian Harding has ridden 5 winners from 10 (50% SR) Nicky Richards runners for level stakes profits of 14.38pts (+143.8% ROI). Horses priced at 11/4 to 9/2 have an exact same record as those competing over 2m2f to 3m2f, which stands at 5 wins from 8 (62.5% SR) for 16.38pts (+204.75% ROI) profit.

Those priced at 11/4 to 9/2 who are also running over the 2m2f to 3m2f trip range are 5 from 7 (71.4% SR) for 17.38pts at an ROI of 248.3%.

And today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Takingrisks at 7/2 BOG with either Bet365, BetVictor or Paddy Power (Betfred/Totesport/Ladbrokes also offer 7/2, but don't/won't go BOG until the morning). To see the fuller picture...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 29th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 29th December 2015

Monday's Result :

3.40 Leicester : Prairie Town @ 7/1 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Held up towards rear, well beaten after 5th)

Tuesday's runner goes in the...

3.00 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

What A Dream @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding has been revitalised since a move North to Alison Hamilton's yard less than 20 miles from Kelso and the introduction of jockey Jamie Hamilton (Alison's nephew) along with a tongue tie and cheekpieces. Together this trainer/jockey/horse/equipment combo has finished 22611 in five starts, the first of which was a runner-up finish over this track and trip.

What A Dream now seeks a hat-trick after winning both starts this season, initially scoring by 10 lengths off the back of a 31 week break before a 3 lengths victory 11 days later (and seven weeks ago) last time out. Both races were over 2m 4.5f at Ayr and he stayed on well on both occasions, suggesting the small step back up in trip shouldn't inconvenience him too much.

That win last time out not only means he's in good nick/form, but it also makes him of statistical interest to me, as male, Class 3/4 runners, aged 6 to 9 yrs old who won a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths last time out in the previous 11 to 150 days are 289/1286 (22.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 274.1pts (+21.3% ROI) since the start of 2008.

Now, I appreciate that not everyone is too keen on backing 160+ runners a year from one system, so I'm going to offer you seven angles relating to today's contest that will break the original dataset down to levels you might be more comfortable with, such as...

  • Chasers are 279/1233 (22.6% SR) for 264.7pts (+21.5% ROI)
  • Those who last ran 11 to 50 days ago are 270/1151 (23.5% SR) for 281.3pts (+24.4% ROI)
  • Those rated (OR) 95 to 130 are 250/1097 (22.8% SR) for 293.9pts (+26.8% ROI)
  • Those priced 11/4 to 14/1 are 175/933 (18.8% SR) for 307.5pts (+33% ROI)
  • 9 yr olds are 60/261 (23% SR) for 130.5pts (+50% ROI)
  • On heavy ground, they are 36/115 (31.3% SR) for 45.6pts (+39.6% ROI)
  • Here at Kelso, they are 14/46 (30.4% SR) for 22.6pts (+49.1% ROI)

All of the above are logical filters that improve the ROI enabling us to maximise our returns, and if you want a micro-system with around 80 bets per year, you could do a lot worse than backing Chasers rated 95 to 130, running 11 to 50 days after their last run and now priced at 11/4 to 12/1. Such runners are 138/634 (21.8% SR) for profits of 347.5pts (+54.8% ROI), of which...

  • 9 yr olds are 29/129 (22.5% SR) for 120.9pts (+93.7% ROI)
  • Heavy ground runners are 17/46 (37% SR) for 52.9pts (+115.1% ROI) and
  • those running here at Kelso are 6/20 (30% SR) for 21.7pts (+108.5% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 9.40pm is...

A 1pt win bet on What A Dream and that's at 9/2 BOG with any one of at least ten firms offering this price, so I advise you to...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 12th February 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th February 2015

Mubtadi was backed in from our advised 7/2 to become the 9/4 favourite come race time, which I often find reassuring, as it means there are other people also believing it can win!

And sure enough, he looked well set to go and win, he travelled nicely just off the pace, held up for a run by the master of pace, Joe Fanning, until around the 2 pole.

The it was time to press the accelerator and go and win the race. The button was pushed and Joe got to work, but the end result was pretty disappointing: Mubtadi didn't really do anything and looked very one-paced on his way to a 5th place finish, almost 5 lengths off the winner.

I'm still searching some consistency and my quest now takes us chasing in the heart of the Scottish Borders for the...

2.30 Kelso:

And a 7/2 BOG bet with Bet365 on Donald McCain's rising chasing star, The Last Samuri, who predictably will be ridden by Jason Maguire.

Donald's horses tend to go well here...

...since 2011 he has saddled up 37 winners from 127 runners here at Kelso, with the 29.1% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 71.4pts at an ROI of 56.3% ROI, which is very impressive, but let's drill down further!

His chasers are 12/48 (25% SR) fo 17.8pts (+37.1% ROI) and the handicap chasers are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 21.8pts (+66.1% ROI).

18 of those 33 competed over today's track and trip of 2m 7.5f with 7 of the 18 winning (38.9% SR) their races and generating 14.2pts profit at an ROI of 79%. Jason Maguire's contribution currently stands at 6/15 (40% SR) for 15.4pts (+102.6% ROI).

This horse was a winner 22 days ago on his last start...

...and unexposed (less than a dozen career runs) handicappers priced at 2/1 to 10/1 within 16 to 25 days of a win in a Novice Chase have gone on to win 32 of 138 (23.2% SR) of those handicaps, notching up 54.5pts (+39.5% ROI) in the process. The rated (OR) in the 95 to 135 range are 30/118 (25.4% SR) for 64.2pts (+54.4% ROI).

He's also a very useful sort...

...as demonstrated by a career record of 5 wins and 2 places from just eight runs so far and there was no disgrace in the race in which he failed to make the frame as it was a grade 1 hurdle at the Aintree Festival last year. He has one win and one runner-up finish here at Kelso and he aims for a third chase victory, having won both his previous efforts over fences.

He's 4/6 under Jason Maguire, happy with the ground conditions and has won races at various distances from 20f to 25.5f, so today's trip should cause any concerns.

I think The Last Samuri is a horse that could go places and he's certainly in the right hands to do so and I'd expect today to be a stepping tone to bigger and better things, so we should get on while we can. To that end I'm backing The Last Samuri at 7/2 BOG with Bet365 today. You can get the same price from BetVictor & Boylesports, but if you'd prefer to use a different firm...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.30 Kelso

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Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2014

Another head-scratchingly poor display from a well-fancied runner yesterday as 5/2 shot (slight drift from our 9/4 advisory) Dormello Mo only managed to beat one of his five rivals home.

The fact he was beaten by a well-backed 5/4 favourite wasn't a surprise, but the manner of his 15 lengths defeat left me a little nonplussed. He folded quite tamely late on and seemed a little disinterested in the closing stages. Plenty for the Ditcheat team to work on, I think.

I don't say any of the above because we lost and we're on a poor run of form, it's just the way I saw it and as for my form, I'm sure it will return soon enough, such is the cyclical nature of any "tipping" (oh, how I hate that word!) service.

Off to Scotland in search of a winner today in the...

4.15 Kelso:

Since the start of 2011 trainer Dianne Sayer has had 489 entrants in NH handicap contests, a pretty decent sample size. And to think that she's achieved a 13.5% strike rate (via 66 winners) is very good going from so many horses. 1 in 7 isn't bad at the best of times, but to repeat that 66 times over is brilliant.

And as such is normally the case, she's profitable to back blindly, as level stakes profits of 162.5pts and an ROI of 33.2% will testify. Now these are very healthy figures, but perhaps they're skewed by a couple of big-priced winners?

Closer inspection says no. If we revert to our "general default setting" of the 13/8 to 6/1 price range (we do go outside those odds for SotD, of course, but most of our selections run within these parameters), we see that the figures are actually better, not worse. 35 winners from 136 runners is a strike rate of 25.7%, almost double the initial stats and these 35 winners have brought about a 40.5% return on stakes invested, courtesy of 54.7pts profit.

From that 35/136 record, the numbers for Mrs Sayers' odds-restricted runners here at Kelso are 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 14.25pts (+79.2% ROI), very nice indeed.

Dianne has two runners here today: Sergeant Pink looks to be up against it as the 16/1 BOG outsider of nine in the 2.00 race, which brings us to Newdane Dancer.

Newdane Dancer has been running really well of late with results of 1312 in his last four outings spread over a 12-week period stretching back to 28th December last year and although he has been raised 3lbs from his latest run, he stands a good chance of securing a third win on five here today.

He stayed on well to take second place in a big field at Catterick 17 days ago and shaped as though he's have been better suited by today's extra furlong and a half and this is (on paper, at least!) a weaker looking affair with less rivals to beat.

It's also interesting to note that his recent four-race run of form has coincided with being teamed up with 5lb claiming jockey Colm McCormack who will be keen to maintain his 4/4 place record on this horse. Which brings me nicely to another little stat regarding the trainer Mrs Dianne Sayer.

A much smaller sample size than the stat I opened with (just 73 runners this time), but in the same 2011-14 timeline, her horses have 20.6% of their races when ridden by a jockey claiming 5lbs in a NH handicap race. To save you doing the maths, that's 15 winners from 73 all priced below 10/1. And the resultant profits of 42.9pts or 58.8% of stakes are worth having too.

So, we've a trainer who you can back blindly at all odds and even more so at shorter odds. She's also got a good record here at Kelso in handicap contests and has a horse in great form with a burgeoning relationship with his 5lb claimer jockey, the type of rider his trainer excels with. What could possibly go wrong? 😀

Personally, I don't think there's a better horse in the race and despite a 3lb rise, our selection is still quite low in the weights here and carries 10lbs less than his two most likely rivals at the head of the market. All of which leads me to a 1pt win bet on Newdane Dancer at 9/2 BOG with Bet365. That's easily the best of the prices currently on offer, but you can check them out for yourself, if you just...

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