Tag Archives: Joseph Tuite

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

4.30 Sandown : Firmament @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Held up off the pace towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 3rd towards finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG  

In a 10-runner, Class 5 Handicap (AW)  for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack, worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

A very consistent 5 yr old gelding who has made the frame in each of his last 11 starts, winning three times including two successes in his last three outings, concluding with a Class 5 win over a mile last time out nine days ago, taking his record over this trip to 23131.

He, like Thursday's pick, is trained by Joseph Tuite and as I went through his recent form and his general September form just two days ago for you, I won't bore you by repeating the numbers. If however, you need a reminder, those details are right here.

What I do want to look at is Mr Tuite's record at getting winners to reproduce their form and since the start of 2015, his LTO winners are 15 from 78 (19.2% SR) for 14.8pts (+19% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • handicappers are 14/66 (21.2%) for 24.1pts (+36.5%)
  • males are 13/57 (22.8%) for 28.1pts (+49.4%)
  • on the A/W : 9/34 (26.5%) for 5.07pts (+14.9%)
  • at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 12/31 (38.7%) for 14.6pts (+47%)
  • and after a short 6-10 day rest : 5/13 (38.5%) for 7.68pts (+59%)

...AND...from the above... male A/W handicappers priced at 9/2 and shorter are 6/15 (40% SR) for 8.56pts (+57% ROI), of which those who ran just 6-10 days earlier are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 4.84pts (+161.4%)

...providing the basis for... a 1pt win bet on Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG, a price offered by more then half a dozen firms as of 6.55pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th September 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

5.05 Uttoxeter : Strong Team @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Mid-division, not fluent 3 out or 2 out, headway before last, kept on flat)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sylvias Mother @ 4/1 & 7/2 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 6 Nursery for 2yo over 5f on Good ground, worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

These 14 runners are collectively 1 win from 69 in their admittedly relatively short careers to date, yet our "girl" is 1 from 5, having scored in another 5f Nursery last time out when making all 20 days ago and I wouldn't be too surprised if she doesn't attempt the same thing from stall 1 today.

Her yard is in good form, as Joseph Tuite's runners have won 3 from 7 in the past 10 days, but then again he does tend to do well in September. His overall career record (ie since 2011) in the month of September shows 17 winners from 102 handicap races with the decent 16.7% strike rate producing profits of 62pts at a very healthy ROI of 60.8%, from which...

  • over trips no further than a mile : 16/79 (20.3%) for 81.2pts (+102.8%)
  • in Nursery contests : 4/16 (25%) for 19.83pts (+123.6%)
  • and at this minimum trip : 3/15 (20%) for 17.4pts (+116.1%)

Joseph doesn't actually send very many horses on the 150 mile trip West from Lambourn to Trimsaran, but he has still managed to land a couple of wins from seven handicap attempts over the last couple of years, so he's not a complete stranger to the winners' enclosure here in South Wales.

Also, since the start of 2015, he has done pretty well at getting his horses to land back to back successes, as his LTO winners are 14 from 65 (21.5% SR) for 25.1pts (+38.6% ROI) in handicap contests during that time with his 2 year olds winning 2 of 2 for 5.67pts (+283.5%).

Jason Watson will be in the saddle today and he's generally very good value for his 3lb claim, which negates the rise in weight for Sylvias Mother's win last time out and Jason has been averaging a strike rate of almost 20% for some time now, whilst this year alone when riding the favourite he has 28 wins from 68 (41.2% SR) for 6.46pts (+9.5% ROI), bucking the general trend of favourites.

Of those 68 rides...

  • over 5/6 furlongs : 9/20 (45%) for 6.83pts (+34.1%)
  • on 2yr olds : 3/4 (75%) for 3.53pts (+88.3%)
  • and on 2yr olds over 5/6 furlongs : 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 2.88pts (+95.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sylvias Mother @ 4/1 & 7/2 BOG, prices offered by Betfair & Paddy Power respectively as of 5.50pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st August 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.50 Leicester : Ninjago @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Mid-division, headway under pressure inside final 2f, soon switched right and ridden, stayed on to chase winner well inside final furlong, always held)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fortune and Glory 4/1 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on polytrack worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

One of only two former course and distance winners in today's race, having prevailed here over track and trip LTO 13 days ago.

Our boy has certainly made a good start to handicap life, making the frame in all seven efforts, winning twice, including that LTO win under today's jockey Nicola Currie. Nicola is generally very good value for her 3lb claim and I'm happy to see her booked for this ride on a track she fares well at.

In fact, her record here stands at 11 winners from 72 (15.3% SR) for profits of 57.1pts at an ROI of 79.4% and these rides include of relevance today...

  • in 2018 : 8/41 (19.5%) for 68.6pts (+167.2%)
  • over 7 to 11 furlongs : 9/36 (25%) for 80.5pts (+223.6%)
  • over 7 to 11 furlongs in 2018 : 8/21 (38.1%) for 88.6pts (+421.7%)
  • and over this 7f course and distance this year : 4/8 (50%) for 42.9pts (+536.2%)

Meanwhile, our trainer Joseph Tuite's record on handicaps over the last 22 months with LTO winners stands at 13 from 40 (32.5% SR) for 20.22pts (+50.6% ROI) profit, including of note today...

  • for prizes of less than £8,000 : 13/35 (37.1%) for 25.22pts (+72.1%)
  • males : 11/34 (32.4%) for 18.55pts (+54.6%)
  • on the A/W : 9/22 (40.9%) for 17.07pts (+77.6%)
  • June to August  6/16 (37.5%) for 19.09pts (+119.3%)
  • over 6f to 1m : 5/15 (33.3%) for 9.23pts (+61.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/15 (33.3%) for 7.37pts (+49.1%)
  • within 14 days of that LTO win : 6/13 (46.2%) for 9.83pts (+75.7%)
  • and with Nicola Currie in the saddle : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.47pts (+249.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Fortune and Glory 4/1 BOGa price offered by at least a dozen firms (as at 7.35pm on Monday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

5.10 Haydock : Miss Mumtaz @ 9/4 BOG a poor 5th at 11/8 (Tracked leader, led 4f out, headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Conkering Hero 5/2 BOG

In a 6-runner, Class 5, All-Weather Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has won 4 of his 13 A/W races to date and comes here in great form having won each of the last three, culminating in a course and distance success here a week ago and of his 4/13 A/W record, he has the following...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 13 going left handed
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 at the age of 4
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 in a visor
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 over 2m/2m½f
  • 2 wins from 4 in fields of 6/7 runners
  • 2 wins from 3 in July / August
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Wolverhampton
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 with Finley Marsh in the saddle
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (that LTO win a week ago)

Trainer Joseph Tuite is 15 from 74 (20.3% SR) for 18.81pts (+25.4% ROI) with his Flat & A/W LTO winners since the start of 2015, including...

  • 14/62 (22.6%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) in handicaps
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 7.07pts (+22.1%) on the A/W
  • 12/29 (41.4%) for 16.55pts (+57.1%) sent off shorter than 5/1
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 38.67pts (+133.3%) from June to August
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.89pts (+58.2%) in 2018
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.68pts (+72.3%) 6-10 days after their LTO win
  • 5/10 (50%) for 43.15pts (+431.5%) over 1m6f and beyond
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 9.04pts (+113%) here at Wolverhampton

As I alluded earlier, 5lb claimer Finley Marsh is in the saddle today and so far this year, he is 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 24.9pts (+177.9% ROI) on the Tuite string of horses, from which he is...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 25.9pts (+199.3%) in handicaps
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 26.9pts (+224.2%) when claiming his 5lb allowance
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 27.9pts (+253.7%) when claiming 5lbs in a handicap

And finally for this one (phew!)... Since the start of 2013 in Class 5 A/W contests, horses who won over course and distance last time out by 3 lengths or less at odds of 11/4 to 20/1 are 25 from 52 (48.1% SR) for 51.45pts (+98.9% ROI) at odds of 8/1 and shorter.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Conkering Hero 5/2 BOGa price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 9.45pm on Thursday. with plenty of 9/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th August 2014

It all sort of fell apart late on for Los Nadis at Perth on Saturday, after having run and travelled well until making a mistake 3 from home which unsettled his rhythm. His jockey then lost the irons at the second from last and despite battling to stay in contention was eventually outpaced on the flat, finally coming home in 4th place at 4/1.

The overall margin of defeat was almost ten lengths in the end, but I was happy enough with the vast bulk of the run, but not the result, of course. I aim to put that right swiftly today and with one eye on the terrible weather around, I think it's best to head for the all-weather and more particularly, the...

5.00 Kempton:

Where talented rising star Oisin Murphy's only ride on the card is trainer Joseph Tuite's only runner anywhere today (Oisin is down for two rides at Windsor later!). The horse in question is the 3 yr old Cincuenta Pasos, who can currently be backed at 7/2 BOG.

Joseph Tuite's record at the sharper end of the market here at Kempton is pretty good with five winners from the nineteen runners priced between 2/1 and 5/1, with the 26.3% strike rate generating 11.1pts (+58.6% ROI) profits at level stakes.

That 5/19 (26.3% SR) record is also exactly the same record as Oisin Murphy has when riding any of Mr Tuite's horses in the past, but the subsequent profits from these runs is significantly higher at 20.7pts, or 108.8% of all stakes.

Incidentally Oisin has a decent enough record here at this track too with a 15.5% strike rate (via 9 winners from 58) generating 27.6pts (+47.5% ROI) profit.

Cincuenta Pasos was last seen just five days ago when landing an apprentice jockeys' handicap at Salisbury last Wednesday. Other than the change of surface, the race conditions will be similar here with both races being over 7f at Class 5 level. The switch to the A/W track shouldn't be too much of an inconvenience, though as the horse has already run well here on a couple of occasions.

Further weight is added to the selection when one of my micro-systems shows decent results for horses under the following conditions:  previous winner at today's trip / winner LTO within last five days (any trip) / same class as LTO / same trip as LTO / OR no more than 7lbs higher than LTO.

Horses fitting those criteria have won 91 of 250 races in the last four years with the 36.4% strike rate producing profits of 70.5pts at a yield of 28.2%. If we then just considered those within the evens to 11/2 price range, we have 67 winners from just 180 runners for a 37.2% strike rate and 79.8pts (+44.3% ROI)

I allow a rise in official ratings of up to 7lbs to account for a penalty imposed for that win last time out, but Cincuenta Pasos' win came in an apprentices' race, so no penalty is incurred and he turns out again off the same winning mark of 68. From the 250 horses above, the record when running at the same mark as last time out is 17/37 (4539% SR) for 19.2pts (+51.9% ROI) profit with the Evens to 11/2 odds restriction improving the figures once again, this time to 14/32 (43.8% SR) for 19.7pts (+61.7% ROI).

That win last time out came after four uninspiring finishes of 5064, but now dropped to a workable mark, he is quickly turned out to take advantage of a return to form. This is something we see a lot of in A/W handicaps, where horses who recently (last 30 days) won after a series (3 or more) of consecutive unplaced runs went on to win again.

Of all those runners attempting back to back wins after a run of poor results, those sent off below 8/1 have a good record in the last couple of years, winning 102 of 334 races (30.5% SR) for 96.1pts profit (+28.8% ROI).

From the 334 runners, the record here at Kempton is also very encouraging with 33 winners from 94 (35.1% SR) generating 49.2pts profit at an ROI of 52.3%.

Cincuenta Pasos stayed on well to win by a length and a half at Salisbury last week, and if he runs as well on this surface as he has in the past, then he has a great chance of another victory. Jennifer Powell rode him well last time, but I think Oisin Murphy is capable of squeezing a little bit more out of the horse if required and I'm happy to stake a 1pt win bet on them at 7/2 BOG.

This price is readily available and I've gone with SkyBet to put it towards my wagering requirements for the weekly free bet. Feel free, of course, to use another firm and you can check their prices, when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 5.00 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2012

Stat of the Day 7/9

Stat of the Day 7/9

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2012

It was another case of near yet so far again yesterday. I highlighted the two Alan Jarvis runners as potential E/W gambles: Martinas Delight a 10/1 BOG chance) finished 4th at 12/1, just a neck outside the places and staying on at the end, whilst the SotD selection Diaminda suffered a similar fate. Our advised 8/1 shot eased out by half a point on the off and finished her race very strongly. Unfortunately for her, she had left it a little late and she also finished 4th, a head away from a place and less than two lengths off the winner. Had our horses got going a little sooner over the past few days, we'd be sitting on some decent profits.

Unfortunately ifs and buts don't boost the bank, so we go again today with an old friend of SotD, who takes us to the South Coast for a tea-time Class 5 Fillies Handicap. The ground is expected to be good to firm for the twelve runners tackling 6 furlongs in the...

5.25 Brighton

Last Sunday (2/9/12) our SotD selection was the Joseph Tuite-trained Efistorm, based purely on the horse's own record at Folkestone. Efistorm ran poorly that day and seemed to need the run. He runs again here today in the 4.20 and whilst he might have an outside squeak of a place at 16/1 or bigger, it's his travelling partner we're more interested in today.

Trainer Joseph Tuite has a very good record here at Brighton with 6 winners from 21 (28.6%) returning profits of 13.5pts (64.3% on stakes), with a further 5 place finishes. Today's selection Interakt is a 5yr old horse with a decent record at the track himself, which I'll come to in a moment. I just want to define Mr Tuite's stats a little further by looking at his Brighton record with horses aged 4 and over, because they're even more impressive than his overall figures. 5 wins and 5 places from 16 is very good indeed and the five winners have produced a level stakes profit at SP of 16pts, so you're doubling your money at SP and who backs at SP nowadays?

Now, let's take a closer look at our selection Interakt: he won twice over Course & Distance last season and has already opened her account for this season with a win at Yarmouth back in May. She has since struggled after stepping up to Class 4 racing, but dropped back to this grade last time out, where she found the 5 furlongs here a little too sharp for her liking. She's back up to 6 furlongs today which will suit her more on a track she loves. She has scored 3 wins and 6 places from 11 Brighton outings and her record here since moving to Joseph Tuite reads 2031122.

The trainer and the horse are both proven here and the filly clearly gets the trip. With all this in mind, I actually think that the 5/1 BOG currently on offer from BetVictor represents decent value, so it's 1pt win at 5/1 BOG, but you should always...

Click here for the latest odds for the 5.25 Brighton.