Tag Archives: John Gosden

Stat of the Day, 16th November 2019

Friday's pick was...

3.45 Southwell : Oriental Cross @ 6/1 (4.8/1 after a 20p R4!) WON at 9/2 (Tracked leaders on outside, led going well approaching 2 out, went clear before last, won easily by 7 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Scentasia @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday or 7/2 BOG now

...in the 14-runner, British Stallion Studs EBF Gillies Fillies Stakes Listed Race for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £21,266 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly has won three of her last 5 starts including landing a Listed contest on this very track last time out, 16 days ago. That was her first run at this level, so she will hope to maintain that 100% record. She's 1 from 2 at this venue, 3 from 6 for trainer John Gosden and also 3 from 6 when rested for 2 to 6 weeks.

She'll be ridden by Frankie Dettori, who just has a fantastic record in Listed races, winning 50 of 191 (26.2% SR) for 69.7pts (+36.5% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2014. Trust me, guys, those are astounding numbers, but we can make them look better, surely?

Of course we can. Amongst that 50/191 record and of relevance today there are...

  • 37/112 (33%) for 84.3pts (+75.3%) after 16 to 120 days off track
  • 29/105 (27.6%) for 14.4pts (+13.7%) for trainer John Gosden
  • 29/81 (35.8%) for 26.5pts (+32.7%) on LTO winners
  • 26/91 (28.6%) for 64.9pts (+71.4%) on female runners
  • and 23/78 (29.5%) for 48.9pts (62.7%) in female only races...

...whilst on John Gosden's females who won LTO 16-120 days earlier, Frankie is 9 from 17 (52.9% SR) for 15.6pts (+91.8% ROI).

And whilst Frankie's clearly the man for the job, trainer John Gosden is no slouch around these parts either, his horses have won 28 of 80 (35% SR) for 36.7pts (+45.9% ROI) on the Polytrack here at Lingfield since the start of 2018, including...

  • 24/66 (36.4%) for 40.1pts (+60.8%) in non-handicaps
  • 22/65 (33.9%) for 38.9pts (+59.8%) from October to April
  • 22/53 (41.5%) for 43.2pts (+81.5%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 34.8pts (+108.8%) over this 1m2f C&D
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 10.1pts (+77.3%) at Class 1
  • and 4/10 (40%) for 11.78pts (+117.8%) in Listed contests...

...whilst Mr G's 3 yr old non-handicappers are 12 from 32 (37.5% SR) for 40.8pts (+127.4% ROI) during October to April, giving us 112% of the original profit from just 40% of the bets!

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Scentasia @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday or 7/2 BOG now as was available from Hills (4/1) & generally at 7/2 at 6.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th March 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.35 Lingfield : Harry Callahan @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway over 4f out, led over 2f out, headed over 1f out, no extra final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gantier 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 3 yr old son of Frankel who seems to haven taken to the A/W quite well, finishing 2212 in four efforts so far and was only beaten the 0.75 lengths LTO 5 weeks ago here at Wolverhampton over 9.5 furlongs. He was staying on well enough that day against a short priced jolly and I think the extra 2.5 furlongs today will suit him. He's trainer John Gosden's only runner at the meeting and will be partnered by Kieran O'Neill, which I'm happy about, because...

...Gosden + O'Neill = 13 from 59 (22% SR) for 36.7pts (+62.2% ROI), from which...

  • 9 from 33 (27.3%) for 32.1pts (+97.2%) on the A/W, including...
  • 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 15.65pts (+195.7%) here at Wolverhampton, which isn't too surprising when you realise/consider that...

...John Gosden + Wolverhampton + Tapeta = 65/188 (34.6% SR) for 24.9pts (+13.3% ROI) from blindly backing all his runners here! If you wanted to be more selective, you could look at the following angles at play today...

  • sub-5/1 shots are 63/141 (44.7%) for 42.2pts (+30%) and you could realistically stop here
  • 3 yr olds are 33/97 (34%) for 12.84pts (+13.2%)
  • 21-60 days since last run = 23/53 (43.4%) for 27.9pts (+52.7%)
  • up in trip by 1 to 2.5 furlongs = 14/40 (35%) for 21.2pts (+53.1%)
  • over this 1m4f course and distance : 6/12 (50%) for 13pts (+108.3%)

...and from the above... 3yr olds sent off shorter than 5/1, 21 to 60 days after last outing are 11 from 24 (45.8% SR) for 10.7pts (+44.6% ROI), with those stepping up in trip winning 7 of 13 (53.9%) for 9.02pts (+69.4%).

And finally for today, with Mr Gosden having just one runner at this venue, it might interest some of you to know that since 2013 when sending just one runner to a track that day, those horses are 63/249 (25.3% SR) for 36pts (+14.4% ROI) profit in handicaps, from which...

  • 3 yr olds are 47/185 (25.4%) for 15.8pts (+8.54%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 48/180 (26.7%) for 52.3pts (+29.1%)
  • prize of £8k or less : 40/168 (23.8%) for 11.89pts (+7.1%)
  • males : 42/166 (25.3%) for 38.3pts (+23.1%)
  • Class 4/5  : 35/140 (25%) for 20.71pts (+14.8%)
  • on the A/W : 30/124 (24.2%) for 13.6pts (+11%)
  • up in trip by 0.5 to 3 furlongs : 29/99 (29.3%) for 54pts (+54.6%)
  • and over this 1.5 mile trip : 6/23 (26.1%) for 5.7pts (+24.8%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gantier 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.35pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd August 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.25 York : Persian Moon @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Tracked leader, raced keenly, led over 2f out, hung left under pressure inside final furlong, headed closing stages, no extra)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.35 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Coronet 6/1 BOG

In an 8-runner, Group 1 contest for Fillies and Mares (Darley Yorkshire Oaks) for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good To Firm ground worth £198485 to the winner...

Why?

Yes, I know that there's a well fancied short priced favourite here, but I do like the chances of this older horse to upset the odds at a nice price. Like last year's winner Enable, who she was the runner-up to, she has come here from the King George at Ascot and her career stats include...

  • 3 wins from 4 under Frankie Dettori
  • 2 wins from 4 on good to firm
  • a win and that runner-up finish last year from 2 runs here at York
  • and she's got winning form over this trip

Like last year's winner, she is trained by John Gosden (who by default therefore had the 1-2 in this race last time with Frankie riding the winner) and John's horses have been running well for a while now, including...

  • over the last 30 days : 19 from 63 (30.2% SR)
  • over the past fortnight : 10/28 (35.7%)
  • and during the last week : 5/15 (33.3%)

More generally over the last seven (including this one) seasons, Mr Gosden's runners are 25 from 106 (23.6% SR) for 12.9pts (+12.1% ROI) on this track, including of relevance today...

  • at odds of 15/8 to 9/1 : 19/74 (25.7%) for 35pts (+47.3%)
  • at Class 1 : 18/72 (25%) for 8.02pts (+11.1%)
  • over trips of 10.5 to 12 furlongs : 19/58 (32.8%) for 35.6pts (+61.4%)
  • females are 12/38 (31.6%) for 6.05pts (+15.9%)
  • in female only races : 12/33 (36.4%) for 11.05pts (+33.5%)
  • on Good to Firm : 9/32 (28.1%) for 17.2pts (+53.7%)
  • those ridden by Frankie Dettori are 10/30 (33.3%) for 11.1pts (+37.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 8/30 (26.7%) for 6.68pts (+22.3%)
  • over 1m4f : 6/22 (27.3%) for 14.1pts (+63.9%)

And prior to the start of this year's Festival, Frankie's record over the previous three Ebor meetings in Class 1 non-handicap races stood at 6 wins from 26 (23.1% SR) for 10.93pts profit at an ROI of 42.1%, including 3 wins from 11 (27.3%) for 2.01pts (+18.3%) on those trained by John Gosden...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Coronet 6/1 BOGa price offered by most firms (as at 5.50pm on Wednesday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th July 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

8.10 Epsom : Related @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 10/3 (In rear, outpaced over 3f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong, took 4th near finish, never nearer)

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.00 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wissahickon @ 11/4 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £49800 to the winner...

Why?

Just the fifth career start for this potentially very smart 3 yr old Colt who has 3 wins and a runner-up finish so far from his four previous outings. He made his turf debut LTO 13 days ago, winning a similar Class 2 contest on Good to Firm ground over slightly further than today at York and I was waiting for him to reappear today : the fact that Frankie Dettori now jumps on board is an added bonus.

He's trained by John Gosden whose record on the July track is impressive with 54 winners from 270 (20% SR) for 130.5pts (+48.3% ROI) profit since the start of the 2012 season, from which...

  • 3 yr olds are 30/141 (21.3%) for 44.5pts (+31.6%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 28/128 (21.9%) for 79.7pts (+62.3%)
  • in 3yo only races : 18/96 (18.8%) for 32.4pts (+33.7%)
  • at Class 2 : 8/32 (25%) for 24.6pts (+76.8%)
  • tilting at prizes worth £25k to £50k : 7/21 (33,3%) for 45pts (+214.3%)
  • and with horses rated (OR) in the narrow 99-104 banding : 7/12 (58.3%) for 13.3pts (+110.9%)

And more generally away from this particular track, Mr Gosden's Flat (turf) runners who were LTO winners have gone on to win again on 144 of 470 (30.6% SR) occasions since the start of the 2014 season, clocking up profits of 156.4pts (+33.3% ROI) for those backing all of them. Those not wishing to blanket bet them might prefer one or more of the following angles...

  • on Good to Firm ground : 51/162 (31.5%) for 61.6pts (+38%)
  • ridden by Frankie Dettori : 57/149 (38.3%) for 51.5pts (+34.6%)
  • competing for a prize worth £30k to £100k : 39/126 (31%) for 118.7pts (+94.2%)
  • over trips of 9 to 10.5 furlongs : 50/125 (40%) for 59.6pts (+47.7%)
  • racing after a break of less than 3 weeks : 33/120 (27.5%) for 60.5pts (+50.4%)
  • and in July : 18/49 936.7%) for 61.5pts (+38.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Wissahickon @ 11/4 BOGa price available from Betfair, Betfred, Paddy Power & Totesport at 5.10pm on Thursday with plenty of 5/2 BOG available elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th June 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

3.20 Chelmsford : Danzay @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Held up mid-division, one pace when switched outside over 1f out, soon ridden, went 3rd and kept on inside final furlong, not pace to trouble front pair)

We continue with Thursday's...

4.10 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOG non-runner heavily backed to as low as 7/4 in places, then withdrawn at 9.18am Reason: Self Cert (Not Eaten Up)

A 9-runner, Class 4 handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good To Firm worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding is making just his 7th start today and just his third at this trip, having won on his first attempt before finishing as a runner-up LTO 12 days ago. He was headed late on in the piece on soft ground it is hoped/expected that quicker conditions here will help, as should the change of jockey, which is interesting.

The actual placing of this horse into this contest and the associated conditions drew me to the selection rather than his won past form and it all centres around the trainer John Gosden and his shy retiring jockey, a certain Mr Dettori. Let me explain more in numbers!

...over the last 30 days...

  • Mr Gosden is 25 from 83 (30.1% SR)
  • Mr Dettori is 9 from 34 (26.5%)
  • and together they are 6/15 (40%)

...the last fortnight...

  • trainer = 8/29 (27.6%)
  • jockey = 5/13 (38.5%)
  • together = 3/3 9100%)

and the last week?

  • trainer is 5/15 (33.3%)
  • jockey is 3/8 (37.5%)
  • together : 2/2 (100%)

Now, there are probably very few surprises there, but they do suggest that although both are in great form, they're better as a partnership.

Which now brings me to this horse in this race. John Gosden has three runners today, but only one here at Yarmouth, whilst Frankie makes the admittedly relatively short journey to the seaside for just this one ride : he has nothing else anywhere today. I might be overplaying that angle, but  who knows? After all it's only a Class 4 handicap worth less than £6k!

Yarmouth has been very good for Mr Gosden over the years and since the start of the 2015 campaign, his runners are 16 from 43 (37.2% SR) for 31.7pts profit (+73.7 ROI), from which...

  • on good to firm : 14/29 (48.3%) for 38.2pts (+111.5%)
  • males : 11/26 (42.3%) for 16.2pts (+62.2%)
  • 3 yr olds : 10/21 (47.6%) for 32.3pts (+153.8%)
  • Class 4 : 6/21 (28.6%) for 2.6pts (+12.4%)
  • at 7/2 and shorter : 12/19 (63.2%) for 14.9pts (+78.4%)
  • over the 1m C&D : 6/19 (31.6%) for 12pts (+63%)
  • in handicaps : 5/12 (41.7%) for 30.5pts (+254.5%)
  • ridden by Frankie Dettori : 7/10 (70%) for 7.93pts (+79.3%)
  • John's only runner at the track that day : 4/10 (40%) for 12pts (+120%)
  • Frankie's only ride at the track that day : 3/3 9100%) for 2.48pts (+82.7%)
  • and John's only runner at the track & ridden by Frankie = 1/1 (100%) for 0.48pts (+48%)

And this simple stripped back approach is enough to satisfy me today...

...and reinforces the placing of...a 1pt win bet on Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.10pm on Wednesday evening, although Ladbrokes were slightly better at 10/3  BOG for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th April 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

6.55 Lingfield : My Target @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Mid-division on inside, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, weakened well inside final furlong)

Our next runner goes in Thursday's...

8.35 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG

A 5-runner, Class 4,  1m A/W Handicap (3yo) on polytrack worth £7310 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has won twice and made the fame a further three times from his six starts so far with finishes of 211 on the All-Weather, including 2 wins from 2 over the 1m trip, the most recent being an LTO success 69 days ago.

His trainer, John Gosden, is bang in form, as typified by...

  • 18 winners from 50 (36% SR) in the last 30 days
  • 13 from 37 (35.1%) over the last fortnight
  • and 8 from 20 (40%) over the last week.

On top of this, Johnny's LTO winners are 147/488 (30.1% SR) for 137pts (+28.1% ROI) since 2014, from which...

  • April runners are 35/85 (41.2%) for 50pts (+58.8%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 27/77 (35.1%) for 18.5pts (+24.1%)

Whilst in the same 2014-18 time frame, his runners returning from a break of more than 60 days are 134/487 (27.5% SR) for 87.9pts (+18.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • LTO winners : 56/163 (34.4%) for 45.8pts (+28.1%)
  • in April : 54/153 (35.3%) for 33pts (+21.6%)
  • on Polytrack : 37/107 (34.6%) for 16.8pts (+15.7%)
  • over a 1m trip : 32/104 (30.8%) for 75.7pts (+72.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 32/104 (30.8%) for 45.8pts (+44%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 12/22 (54.6%) for 20.5pts (+93.1%)

And finally for now (!), it's worth noting that this is Mr Gosden's only runner here today and in fact his only runner anywhere all day, and when sending just one handicapper out to a meeting since 2013, he has come home with the prize money on 52 of 199 (26.1% SR) occasions rewarding followers with 47.4pts [profit at an ROI of 23.8%, from which...

  • his only runner all day : 20/89 (22.5%) for 20.7pts (+23.3%)
  • at Chelmsford : 4/12 933.3%) for 8pts (+66.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG which was available from 10Bet, BetVictor, Betway, Coral & SportPesa at 5.50pm on Wednesday, whilst Bet365 were a shade better at 10/3 BOG. In fact 11/4 BOG was still widely available at 8.15am on Thursday, so we should all manage to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.35 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st October 2017

Friday's Result :

4.55 Redcar : Restive @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 : Towards rear, headway 3f out, ridden to chase leaders over 1f out, stayed on to challenge when carried right inside final furlong, led towards finish, scoring by a length...

Saturday's selection goes in the...

1.25 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stradivarius @ 8/1 BOG

Why?

A Group 2, 3yo+ contest over 2m on soft ground...

...and a 3 yr old Colt who is a former Group 1 winner and has won three times and been placed twice from 5 runs this year.

His suitability for today's task can be shown by the following achievements...

  • 3/3 going left handed, 2/2 after a short 25-45 day break
  • 2/2 at odds of 5/1 and bigger, 2/2 in fields of 12 or more
  • 1/1 at Group 2, 1/1 here at Ascot and 1/1 over 2 miles

He's trained by John Gosden, whose runners are 19/99 (19.2% SR) for 2.94pts (+2.96% ROI) over the last 30 days, of which Frankie Dettori has ridden 5 winners from 20 (25%) for profits of 17.03pts (+85.15%).

More long term, this trainer/jockey partnership is 44/170 (25.9% SR) for 21.7pts (+12.8% ROI) in Class 1 contests over the last four seasons, including...

  • those priced at 5/4 to 12/1 : 32/132 (24.2%) for 38.9pts (+29.5%)
  • 3 yr olds @ 27/91 (29.7%) for 28.3pts (+31.1%)
  • here at Ascot : 7/30 (23.3%) for 2.4pts (+8%)
  • and at Group 2 : 7/25 (28%) for 18.4pts (+73.6%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stradivarius @ 8/1 BOG, which was widely available at 8.50pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.25 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th July 2017

Friday's Result :

3.55 Ascot : Appeared @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 2/1 Tracked leaders, took keen hold, steadied 10f out, headway from 5f out, driven 2f out, disputing 2nd when bumped over 1f out, soon short off room and squeezed out, beaten after, no extra final 150 yards.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Chester...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shaaqaaf @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

In a bid to return to some semblance of form (the last couple of weeks have been tough going), I'm stripping SotD back to basics today and keeping it relatively simple/straightforward.

I like the horse's chances here, and she's acquitted herself in her five starts to date, finishing 34212 so far. She was a runner-up when last seen at Newmarket four weeks ago, but now drops in class to run in this open age handicap amongst just her own sex where she'll receive a healthy/useful 8lbs weight for age allowance.

On top of the form/weight issues, there's the Johnny G factor ie trainer John Gosden and his decent record here on the Roodee which has seen him land 18 winners from 67 (26.9% SR) for 11.4pts (+17% ROI) here since 2010. 26.9% is a decent strike rate indeed, but in respect of today's contest, his 67 runners here have the following strike rates...

  • 66.6% were runners-up LTO (2 winners from 3)
  • 34% when sent off at 5/1 and shorter (17/50)
  • 33.3% racing over 7 to 11.5 furlongs (16/48)
  • 30.4% racing at class 4 (7/23)
  • 29.4% in fillies' races (5/17)
  • 29.2% as 3yr olds (14/48)
  • 27.3% from his female runners (6/22)
  • and 26.4% from those racing after a break of 11 to 45 days (14/53)

She's also quite likely to go off as favourite and jockey Kieren Fox is 17/44 (38.6% SR) for 12.3pts (+27.9% ROI) on handicap favourites since the start of 2013, with those racing over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs winning 13 of 25 (52%) for 19.08pts profit at an ROI of some 76.3%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Shaaqaaf @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair Sports & Paddy Power at 7.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Chester...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2017

Friday's Result :

5.35 Newmarket : Trulee Scrumptious @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 4/1 Led, clear 7f out, ridden and headed 2f out, weakened final furlong.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

1.50 Newbury...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Remarkable @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Jockey Frankie Dettori has won 33 of his 152 (21.7% SR) rides here at Newbury since 2011 rewarding his legion of followers with level stakes profits of some 97.9pts at an ROI of 64.4%. These excellent figures include, of releavance today...

  • over 6-7 furlongs : 18/63 (28.6%) for 76.83pts (+121.9%)
  • in handicaps : 8/39 (20.5%) for 75.2pts (+192.9%)
  • at Class 2 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 32.2pts (+169.5%)

...making him a good bet here at Newbury and he actually had the choice of two John Gosden runners in this one and if he's happy to choose this one, who am I to disagree?

That, of course, makes the assumption that I'm happy to back a Gosden runner here, so let's see why that might be the case, shall we?

Well, the yard is 8/34 over the last fortnight and 3 from 13 in the past 7 days, so they're in good enough nick and a closer inspection of their record here on this track shows 50 winners from 248 (20.2% SR) for 55.4pts (+22.3% ROI) since 2011, which breeds further confidence in the selection.

And, of those 248 runners...

  • those priced at 2/1 to 12/1 are 40/185 (21.6%) for 73.1pts (+39.5%)
  • males are 28/145 (19.3%) for 32.7pts (+22.6%)
  • those racing over 6.5/7 furlongs are 17/62 (27.4%) for 20.9pts (+33.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 5/22 (22.7%) for 20pts (+90.9%)
  • and at Class 2 : 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.57pts (+53.6%)

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Remarkable @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available in several places at 6.10pm on Friday with some 7/2 BOG on offer at Stan James for those (unlike me!) who are able to do so!. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newbury...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2017

Thursday's Result :

6.50 Newcastle : Fredricka @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 Led, driven when challenged from well over 1f out, headed and no extra close home.

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Epsom...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Remarkable @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Over the last 30 days, trainer John Gosden's horses are 17 from 84 (20.2%), so the yard is clearly in good nick, as is today's jockey, the shy introverted Mr Frankie Dettori, whose own 30-day tally stands at 16 from 56 (28.6%) with a 4 from 7 record over the past week. And together over the last 30 days, the Gosden/Dettori partnership is 9 from 29 (31% SR).

Here at Epsom, Mr Gosden is 12/47 (25.5% SR) since the start of the 2012 season, whilst Frankie is 6/22 (27.3% SR) since 2014 and together in that time, the pair have teamed up for 5 winners from 9 (55.6% SR) and 5.06pts (+56.3% ROI) profits. Of those 9 runners, those in the 4/6 to 9/2 price range are 5/6 (83.3%) for 8.06pts (+134.4%), from which Class 2 runners are 3/4 (75%) for 4.18pts (+104.5%)

And...also since the start of the 2014 campaign, the Gosden runners at 8/8.5 furlongs are 132/568 (23.2% SR) for 135.8pts (+23.9% ROI), including...

  • males at 82/351 (23.4%) for 93pts (+26.5%)
  • handicappers at 31/144 (21.5%) for 46.9pts (+32.6%)
  • and on good ground : 26/114 (22.8%) for 96.7pts (+84.8%)

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Remarkable7/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.00pm on Thursday, but those able to take the 4/1 BOG offered by minor players 10Bet, NetBet and/or 188Bet would be advised to do so. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.