Tag Archives: John Ferguson

Stat of the Day, 28th March 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.25 Kempton: Steelriver @ 100/30 BOG 6th at 3/1 (In touch, effort over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Easter Monday's runner goes in the...

3.35 Market Rasen:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blue Rambler @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Ground speed between the hurdles shouldn't be an issue here with a horse that was 4 from 4 on the Flat in France and deemed good enough to run in Listed Class in his second/last UK Flat outing (1m6f).

He has finished 322 in three efforts over hurdles, with the middle run being his best to date. That run was over a considerably longer trip (2m3.5f) than the other two which were inadequately short, so I'm expecting this distance to suit him. That middle run was at Musselburgh in early February, when he was only beaten by half a length behind the 135-rated Jetstream Jack, suggesting that an opening handciap mark of 124 could well be on the lenient side today.

His trainer, John Ferguson has a record of 17 wins from 57 runners (29.8% SR) for profits of 10.44pts (+18.3% ROI) here at Market Rasen and those runners can be further scrutinised as follows...

  • those running on good/good to soft ground are 14/46 (30.4% SR) for 15.3pts (+33.3% ROI)
  • hurdlers are 15/43 (34.9% SR) for 20.5pts (+47.6% SR)
  • those racing over 17 to 20.5 furlongs are 13/39 (33.3% SR) for 12.7pts (+32.5% ROI)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 10/28 (35.7% SR) for 20.6pts (+73.4% ROI)
  • those priced at 3/1 to 8/1 are 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 20.7pts (+93.9% ROI)
  • those last seen 26 to 60 days ago are 10/20 (50% SR) for 19.7pts (+98.5% ROI)
  • those ridden by Aidan Coleman are 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 3.74pts (+20.8% ROI)
  • those who were 2nd LTO are 7/14 (50% SR) for 19.5pts (+139.5% ROI)

In addition to the above, John has sent Blue Rambler to the track as his only runner of the meeting, but it's a tactic that has been fruitful in the past, with his single entrants winning 112 of 393 (28.5% SR) for 38.2ptys (+9.7% ROI) profit since the start of 2011, and these runners are...

  • 90/307 (29.3% SR) for 25.8pts (+8.4% ROI) over hurdles
  • 52/157 (33.1% SR) for 45pts (+28.7% ROI) at the ages of 5 and 6
  • 29/97 (29.9% SR) for 17pts (+17.5% ROI) on good to soft ground.

And not only is Blue Rambler John's only runner here at Market Rasen today, this 6yr old gelding is the yard's only runner anywhere on Easter Monday. And since the start of 2013, these solo runners have paid their way by winning 70 of 207 races (33.8% SR) producing level stakes profits of 45.5pts at an ROI of 22%, broken down as follows...

  • hurdlers are 57/161 (35.4% SR) for 41pts (+25.5%ROI)
  • those priced at 15/8 to 10/1 (we should be fine here!) are 34/118 (+28.8% SR) for 51.7pts (+43.8% ROI)
  • on good to soft ground : 20/54 (37% SR) for 30.5pts (+56.5% ROI)
  • handicappers are 11/54 (20.4% SR) for 20.9pts (+38.8% ROI)
  • 6 yr olds are 17/41 (41.5% SR) for 31.8pts (+77.6% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Blue Rambler at 4/1 BOG with any one of the six firms currently (10.00pm Sunday) quoting that price. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Market Rasen

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 27th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th May 2014

We needed every ounce of Richard Hughes' know-how to get home yesterday. He switched Links Drive Lady inside and grabbed the rail moments before the penny dropped with the other jockeys.

This enabled our horse to take the lead inside the final furlong, a lead she dourly held on to, winning eventually by just a short head at 9/2, a full point shorter than advised.

So, profit ensured for the week, let's try to build on it with the...

7.20 Huntingdon:

Where you can currently get 11/4 BOG with SkyBet for AP McCoy's mount Parlour Games, who is not only making his NH debut after winning 4 of 15 races on the flat/AW, but is also running for new trainer John Ferguson for the first time.

1. To date, John Ferguson has a record of 16 winners from the 53 horses sent off at 12/1 or shorter on their first run for his yard, since coming in from other yards with at least 4 runs under their belts. This 30.2% strike rate has, so far, returned profits of 11.63pts (+21.94% ROI) from a 1 pt level stake, whilst the record at 4/1 or shorter reads as 15 winners from 43 for 6.72pts (+15.63% ROI).

2. The booking of AP McCoy is interesting too. There very few profitable micro-systems that revolve around the champion jockey, but...

...if you back him on horses priced at 6/1 or under in non-handicap hurdle races at 2m1f or shorter, there is a trend worth following. Over the last four years, there have been 333 such qualifying bets and if you had placed a £10 bet on each of them, your bank balance would be £925 better off, an ROI of some 27.8%.

Not bad for following someone who generally offers little value from a betting perspective. This is because 133 (40% SR) of the 333 have gone on to win. He's more profitable on those sent off in the 5/2 to 6/1 region (our usual SotD betting zone) with a 45/151 (29.8% SR) record producing 79.24pts (+52.5% ROI), but it's borderline whether Parlour Games will stay at 5/2 or higher.

3. Although this is the horses first effort in this sphere of racing and has such has no official rating to work from, he has won off a mark of 89 on the flat and competed in Listed class off 97, before eventually rising as high as 99. So technically, if not exactly, Parlour Games now runs off a mark lower than his last winning effort and John Ferguson has a good record with hurdlers running below their last winning mark after a run of at least five defeats (this horse hasn't won in six starts!).

His record with those horses is 11 wins from 25 (44% SR) for 42.7pts (+171% ROI) profit, but more tellingly (perhaps), that record with horses who haven't run over hurdles before is 5 wins from 11 for 18.53pts profit.

4. John Ferguson's overall record in non-handicap hurdles here at Huntingdon is good, too: 7 winners from 27 equates to a 25.9% strike rate and the resultant 17.3pts profit are the same as 64.1% of all stakes.

Today might be Parlour Games' first run over hurdles and his first run for his new yard, but he really couldn't have gone to a better home and he's got the best pilot on board. There will, of course, be doubts over his race-fitness after a nine-months absence from racing, but if ready enough, he should see out the trip fairly comfortably.

Speed between the hurdles shouldn't be an issue, he has won four races at distances ranging from 8.5f up to 14f and was considered good enough to run in two Listed races, after winning at Class 2 level.

There's enough to keep us interested there and I feel pretty confident that I'll be going back to the well to collect on my 1pt win bet on Parlour Games at 11/4 BOG with Skybet (just reinvesting one point of yesterday's 5.5pts profit!). Betfred are also offering the same price, as you'll see for yourself, as soon as you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 7.20 Huntingdon

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 8th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th January 2014

Advised at 4/1 and backed in to 5/2 favouritism, Renard Dirlande looked a good bet in the early stages of yesterday's encounter, but a mistake at the 6th fence caused him to unseat Aidan Coleman, denying us of the opportunity to continue our recent fine run.

Today, however, is a whole new day and I'm taking a crack at the...

12.10 Doncaster:

John Ferguson has had a pretty successful start to life as a trainer, with a near 23% strike rate already amassed from his 363 runners. Backing them blindly at SP results in a small loss, but this generally means that BOG backers would have made a modest profit throughout.

Of his 363 runners to date, just 17 have run here at Town Moor, but a return of 6 winners and 5 placers makes good reading. The 35.3% strike rate (64.7% placed) can be further improved by ignoring the runners we tend not to go for here at SotD.

To which end, his stats are five winners (35.7% SR) and 4 placers (64.3% placed) from 14 runners, when we discard the odds on / double-digit odds runners. And whilst the returned profits of 3.15pts (+22.50% ROI) aren't spectacular, they're a starting point that would no doubt be bettered by using the BOG bookmakers.

John has just the one runner today in the shape of Namibian, who was a decent runner on the Flat in 2011 for Mark Johnston, being placed in a couple of listed events, before tasting success in consecutive outings at Group 3 level over 2 miles (Good to Soft) and 1m4f, meaning that he should have enough stamina coupled with speed between the hurdles providing he gets round today.

He suffered from colic and was absent from the track for 16 months (he was also gelded during his layoff), before taking to hurdling on his return at Huntingdon four weeks ago. He clearly needed the run that day, but his jumping held up well for a hurdling debut. He tailed off fairly quickly late on and his jockey (Denis O'Regan who rides again today) eased him down once the race had gone.

He'll improve for having had a pipe-opener and the declared good to soft ground should suit him here today. It's actually soft in places and more rain likely, it could get boggier, which could help us with a horse who is 1/1 on soft ground and has a won and a place to his name from four races on Good to Soft.

Had this been a flat race, he'd have been pretty short and I was hoping/expecting we'd get around 5/1 today. I was therefore, pleasantly surprised to see Coral offering 8/1 BOG. That means it's now a safety-first approach for me with a 0.5pts E/W bet on Namibian at 8/1 BOG with Coral. To see what prices are available elsewhere...

Click here for the latest betting on the 12.10 Doncaster

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Here is today's racecard!

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 08/03/13

Stat of the Day: 09/03/13

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2013

A change of chair and a change of tack today, after Refusal's bomb out yesterday. We'll head to Sandown for the trickiest race of the day, the Imperial Cup, which is the...

3.15 Sandown

This is a long established race, and a hard one to win, so the trends might be quite insightful. As it happens, I think they are, because the favourite, Mr Mole, has a couple of significant historical barriers to overcome.

The key stats are as follows:

13 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 3 or pulled up last time

14 of the last 16 winners were priced 14/1 or shorter

15 of the last 16 winners were aged 4 to 7 years

14 of the last 16 winners carried 11-01 or less

13 of the last 16 winners were officially rated 130 or less

7 of the last 16 winners were favourite or joint favourite

Of those seven winning favourites, six had either 11-01 or less to lug, or was rated below 130. The only horse to carry more and be rated higher was Blowing Wind, which went on to win the County Hurdle less than a week later.

It's possible that Mr Mole could be a future County Hurdle winner, but very unlikely. As such, he makes the market for anything else we might like here.

In today's race, a horse rated 130 will carry exactly 11-01, so that's an obvious ceiling for a selection here. Looking at those runners in the top part of the market, aged four to seven, and which placed last time (or pulled up) gives us a shortlist of Pine Creek, Tominator, and Whitby Jack.

For those who like to dutch, they'd be my three against the field.

However, looking at the trainer stats, Jonjo O'Neill - who trains Tominator - has had just one placed horse from eight tries at this race and that doesn't imply he knows what it takes to get the job done here. Tominator has also been a terrible jumper in his three runs to date and that may take its toll this afternoon.

Pine Creek is John Ferguson's first runner in the race, and he comes here off two narrow successes. Narrow successes make life difficult for the handicapper to assess the form, and he may well be ahead of his mark. Both his hurdling wins have been on soft ground so no worries on that score either.

Although he's currently a longer price than most winners, Whitby Jack is trained by Gary Moore, a man who may not have won this race, but has had five of his sixteen entries placed, including 2nd in 2011 and 3rd last year.

On balance, though, as I can only nominate one horse, I'm going with Pine Creek, each way, at 9/1 BetVictor.

Do make sure you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.15 Sandown