Tag Archives: JJ Quinn

Stat of the Day, 30th August 2019

Thursday's pick was...

3.10 Carlisle : Kermouster @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, going well and looking for room inside final 2f, went 2nd over 1f out, sustained run to lead towards finish, all out to win by a short head)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Ukulele @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good to Soft ground worth £4,399 to the winner...

Why?...

Going to keep it pretty simple today with a 3 yr old filly who has been running consistently well for the last year or so, clocking up 3 wins and 4 placed finishes from her last 10 starts with a record of 511 this season, culminating in a course and distance win here in a big-field (14 ran) similar Class 5, 1m handicap almost four weeks ago.

Her career tally now includes (with today's conditions in mind,of course)...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 after less than 30 days rest
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 7 during July-September
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 over a 1m trip
  • 2 wins from 3 in handicaps
  • a win and a place from two previous runs here at Thirsk, both over course and distance
  • and a win and apace from two efforts on Good to Soft ground

In addition to her apparent suitability above, trainer John (JJ) Quinn's LTO winners are 36 from 165 (21.8% SR) for 119.7pts (+72.6% ROI) on the Flat over the last five seasons, including...

  • 29/118 (24.6%) for 129pts (+109.4%) at 11-60 dslr
  • 26/114 (22.8%) for 104pts (+91.3%) over 5f to 1m
  • 21/91 (23.1%) for 89pts (+97.8%) at the same distance as LTO
  • and 9/31 (29%) for 23.8pts (+76.7%) in 3 yr old races

...whilst those LTO winners racing over 5f to 1m within 1f of the last trip they tackled after 11-60 days rest are 20 from 81 (24.7% SR) for 105.5pts (+130.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on My Ukulele @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 9.10pm on Thursday.. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.40 Chelmsford : Reckless Endeavour @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch, driven when not clear run inside final 2f and again 1f out, ridden and stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, never threatened winner)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Acadian Angel 11/4 BOG

In a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly ran really well in a narrow defeat last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance a fortnight ago, going down by just half a length. The form of that race has hopefully been franked by the fourth-placed horse, Zoravan (2.25 lengths further back that day), reappearing to win a Class 5 contest over this track and trip as recently as last Saturday.

Trainer JJ Quinn is in good form of late with 12 winners from 57 (21.1% SR) generating profits of 36.42pts (+63.9% ROI) for his followers over the last 30 days and these runners include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 11/46 (23.9%) for 34.6pts (+75.2%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 12/43 (27.9%) for 50.4pts (+117.3%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m : 12/40 (30%) for 53.4pts (+133.6%)
  • ridden by Jason Hart : 8/28 (28.6%) for 43.3pts (+154.5%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 6/23 (26.1%) for 14.5pts (+62.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/19 (26.3%) for 25.1pts (+132.2%)

...AND...in handicaps over 5f to 1m at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 11/26 (42.3% SR) for 54.6pts (+210% ROI), from which...

  • Jason Hart : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.43pts (+289.6%)
  • Good to Firm : 6/11 (54.6%) for 26.5pts (+240.5%)
  • Class 6 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 33.1pts (+301.1%)
  • Jason Hart & Class 6 : 5/9 (55.6%) for 35.1pts (+390.2%)
  • Jason Hart on Good to Firm : 3/6 (50%) for 17.7pts (+394.9%)
  • Class 6 on Good to Firm : 2/4 (50%) for 12.5pts (+313.4%)
  • Jason Hart / Class 6 / Good to Firm : 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.5pts (+451.2%)

Meanwhile, more longer-term than the above, Mr Quinn's handicappers are 23/117 (19.7% SR) for 63.8pts (+54.5% ROI) here at Ayr since the start of the 2013 campaign and from these runners and of relevance today...

  • those last seen 6 to 45 days ago : 20/86 (23.3%) for 83.5pts (+97.1%)
  • competing for £8,000 or less : 19/83 (22.9%) for 70.25pts (+84.6%)
  • at 5f to 1m : 17/77 (22.1%) for 59.3pts (+77%)
  • and 3 to 5 yr olds are 17/76 (22.4%) for 81.3pts (+106.9%)

...AND...3 to 5 yr olds racing over 5f to 1m for a prize of £8k or less, 6 to 25 days after last their last run are 9/27 (33.3% SR) for 77.84pts (+288.3% ROI) with a 4 from 12 (33.3%) record at Class 6 that has produced 28.49pts profit at an ROI of 237.4%.

Finally (!), a quick note about our jockey Jason Hart, as since the start of the 2014 season he has a 21/110 (19.1% SR) record in handicaps here at Ayr and backing all of them would have resulted in profits of 84.3pts (+76.6% ROI)...

...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Acadian Angel 11/4 BOGa price offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th January 2018

Saturday's Result :

9.15 Wolverhampton : Mouchee @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 Held up, hampered over 7f out, headway on inside over 1f out, strong challenge inside final furlong, just failed by a nose....

We now start a new week in Monday's...

1.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Raised On Grazeon @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ Mares' Handicap  over 2m on Heavy ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old mare has had seven top three finishes from eight starts so far with 4 such finishes in all four efforts over hurdles, including a win last time out over 2 miles on soft ground when ridden by today's jockey, Danny Cook, for the first time.

Her trainer JJ Quinn's handicap hurdlers have been profitable to follow blindly over the last six years, winning 25 of 159 (15.7% SR) for 29.5pts (+18.6% ROI) profit, from which...

  • those racing at trips shorter than 2.5 miles are 20/97 (20.6%) for 61pts (+62.9%)
  • those who last ran 11-30 days earlier are 18/81 (22.2%) for 45.8pts (+56.6%)
  • from November to January inclusive : 9/46 (19.6%) for 16.3pts (+35.4%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/38 (15.8%) for 13.3pts (+35.1%)
  • females are 6/22 (27.3%) for 19.5pts (+88.7%)
  • and here at Ayr : 2/5 (40%) for 19.4pts (+388%)

In addition to the above, one of my saved microsystems tells me that over the last five years in UK handicap hurdle contests NOT run on Good to Firm or Firm ground, horses who won a novice hurdle race last time out 11 to 90 days earlier went on to win again on 160 of 879 (18.2% SR) occasions generating profits of 155.1pts (+17.7% ROI).

Of those 879 runners, those racing at the same class and trip as that LTO Novice hurdle win are 19/68 (27.9% SR) for 22.5pts (+33.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Raised On Grazeon @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 7.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th June 2017

Friday's Result :

7.05 Ayr : Euro Nightmare @ 7/2 BOG non-runner self-certified (not eaten up).

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.55 Ayr...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Speed Company @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner in this Class 3 grade four starts ago off a mark of 94, but has since toiled at a higher level off 98 & 99, failing to make the frame in three runs at Class 2.

Now eased to a more workable mark of 96 and back at Class 3, he looks well placed to record a 5th career win in just his 15th start, and of his current 4/14 record, he is...

  • 2/9 at 1m2f/1m2.5f, 2/6 on Good ground, 3/5 when priced at 6/1 or shorter
  • he's 2/3 under today's jockey Phillip Makin, 2/3 in fields of 7 or fewer runners
  • 2 from 2 at Class 3 and has won one of his two starts here at Ayr.

In addition to the above, a quick look at the racecard shows he's a good way clear on our excellent speed ratings and will seek to give his trainer JJ (John) Quinn yet another Ayr winner to add to his record of 22/114 (19.3% SR) for 66.3pts (+58.1% ROI) since the start of the 2010 season, and these 114 include...

  • 19/99 (19.2%) for 58pts (+58.5%) from males
  • 16/94 (17%) for 65.7pts (+69.9%) in handicaps
  • 21/90 (23.3%) for 83.2pts (+92.4%) from his 2-5 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 33.2pts (+138.3%) from his 4 yr olds
  • and 6/16 (37.5%) for 25pts (+156.2%) from those ridden by today's jockey Phillip Makin.

Now, Phillip himself also has a good record at this venue and we already know he's 6/16 (37.5%) for 25pts (+156.2%) here on the Quinn horses, but since the start of 2014, he's actually 32/163 (19.6% SR) for 102pts (+62.6% ROI) here in Western Scotland witha 9 from 27 (33.3% SR) record over this 1m2f track and trip that has generated some 34.2pts of profits at an ROI of 126.6%.

And before I sign off for the weekend, I should also throw in the fact that Phillip is in absolutely terrific form at present : he has had 18 rides over the last 5 days and he has managed win seven times, whilst making the frame on three occasions, so he's certainly flying of late!

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Speed Company9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!