Tag Archives: Jeremy Noseda

Stat of the Day, 17th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th July 2015

Getting 7/2 about a 2/1 winner is always satisfying and even more when your runner snatches the race right on the line and that's what happened at Leicester on Thursday for us.

Some might say it was a perfectly judged ride or that we got lucky, but things even themselves out and we've lost races that way in the past, so all's fair in my eyes!

It was good to get back to winning ways and I now want another in Friday's finale at HQ, the...

8.55 Newmarket :

A Class 5, 7 furlong handicap on good to firm ground where Jeremy Noseda's gelding Zeshov drops in trip in a bid to convert a good run last time out into a second career victory on just his seventh start.

Jeremy Noseda's record on the July course is decent at 27 wins from 133 (20.3% SR) for 32.5pts at an ROI of 24.4%.

Those running over trips of 7f to a mile are 16 from 77 (20.8% SR) for 18.1pts (+23.4% ROI), those running in handicaps are 11/56 (19.6% SR) for 17.6pts (+31.4% ROI), whilst those ridden by Frankie Dettori are 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 4.4pts (+48.5% ROI) profit.

Zeshov comes here having last been seen finishing 4th of 9 runners 8 weeks ago, but that hardly tells the whole story. That was his first run for 281 days and he was only beaten by 1.75 lengths and was only a quarter of a length behind runner-up Scottish Glen who is 2 from 2 at Class 4 since that day.

That last run was also a Class 4 affair and the drop in class should benefit him here, a theory backed up by the fact that in the last three seasons Jeremy Noseda's horses priced at 8/1 and shorter who were dropped in class, won 12 of 38 (31.6% SR) races for 27.4pts profit at an ROI of 72.2%.

Jeremy's runners also seem to do better with a relatively recent run behind them and since 2009, his horses priced at 6/1 or shorter making their 2nd handicap start in three months are 36/116 (31% SR) for 16.3pts (+14% ROI), with those running in Class 4/5 contests winning 30 of 82 (36.6% SR) for profits of 22.7pts (+27.6% ROI).

He ran well last time out and this looks an easier task and the stats do suggest he will go well again here too. That said, the market will be alive to that fact and we'll not be getting rich off the back of Zeshov today.

At the time of posting this (just before 10.30pm), the best on offer was the 11/4 non-BOG from Ladbrokes (not BOG until 9.00am) or 5/2 BOG from either Betfair or BetVictor, the choice is yours!

For the record, I think I'll sacrifice the slightly better odds to take the BOG insurance. I expect Zeshov to shorten in the market, but there's always the chance it goes the other way. To see the latest odds...

...click here for the betting on the 8.55 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 10th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th June 2015

Tuesday was one of those nearly days for myself and Messrs Charlton & Baker. Jockey George had two rides for Roger at Salisbury, I backed them both, I beat SP both times, they both ran well and both finished second!

Chauvelin was beaten by three parts of a length an hour after SotD pick Star Fire had just failed by a neck at 3/1 after we'd taken a juicy 9/2 BOG. However you get nothing for coming second with straight win bets, so it's a point conceded to the bookies, but I'll be trying to win it back in the...

8.40 Kempton:

A Class 4 A/W handicap over 7f, where I've just taken 7/2 BOG about Ian's Memory, who Richard Hughes will ride for Jeremy Noseda.

Jeremy's record with horses priced at 6/1 or shorter in A/W handicaps since the start of 2010 is 45/146 (30.8% SR) for 13.9pts profit at an ROI of 9.5%, but since the start of 2014, the figures are much more impressive at 14/36 (38.9% SR) for 13.23pts (+36.6% ROI).

Of those 36 runners, the record here at Kempton is 7/14 (50% SR) for 7.6pts (+54.3% ROI).

Also, since 2009, jockey Richard Hughes' record in Class 4/5 handicaps here at Kempton on horses in the 2/1 to 11/1 price range is 41/203 (20.2% SR) for 55.1pts (+27.2% ROI), of which he's 36/153 (23.5% SR) for 83.4pts (+54.5% ROI) over trips of 5f to 1m2f and at those trips, he's 4/16 (25% SR) for 11pts (+68.6% ROI) since the start of 2014.

Richard Hughes doesn't ride too often for Jeremy Noseda, but since the start of 2010 in handicaps on horses priced at 4/1 or shorter, they are 7/12 (58.3% SR) for 16.8pts (+139.8% ROI) together.

Some trainers do better than others with their handicappers that haven't over-raced their horses and get better results with horses that are fresh. Jeremy Noseda has a good record with horses that have only raced once in the previous 90 days and with Ian's Memory having last raced 10 weeks ago after a 9-week break, he fulfils the criteria of Noseda handicappers with just one run in the last 90 days.

Since 2009, such runners are 32/111 (28.8% SR) for 25.6pts profit at an ROI of 23.1%. On the A/W, the figures are 16/42 (38.1% SR) for 25.2pts (+59.9% ROI) with those priced at 6/1 or shorter winning 15 of 29 (51.7% SR) for 22.4pts (+77.4% ROI) profit.

Coral are currently offering 7/2 BOG about Ian's Memory, whilst there's plenty of 3/1 BOG around as can be seen by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 8.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 27th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th November 2014

Connor Hoban gave Dalewari a really good, patient ride on his handicap debut and waited until deep into the final furlong to run on and hit the front. He kept the horse handy, but covered up until the time was right, before quickly sweeping to front to stay on and score by half a length or so.

This meant yet another Dundalk winner for trainer Michael Halford who remains in imperious form and the icing on the cake came when we went to get paid out. I said 5/2 was a little on the short side for an SotD pick, but that I thought there'd still be a bit of value. Well, the SP was 7/4, meaning we got paid out at 143% of SP.

Another late A/W show in prospect for Thursday as I've found a consistent sort in the...

7.25 Kempton:

A Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over six furlongs on the polytrack, where I've just taken 6/1 BOG with SkyBet about Jeremy Noseda's 3yr old filly, Mia San Triple. I know that 6/1 BOG is towards the upper end of the odds range for SotD, but I feel she's likely to run at around 4/1 and seems a little overpriced at present.

Jeremy Noseda has a good record in these 3yo+ handicaps on the all-weather and is one of a number of trainers I keep an eye on under certain conditions. Jeremy's runners falling in to the following categories tend to go quite well in these events : UK A/W 3yo+ handicaps, aged 3 to 7, running at two classes lower to one class higher (inclusive) to last time out and within -2 to+2 furlongs of that last run.

Since 2010 Jeremy's record with such runners is 21 winners from 78 (36.9% SR) for 28.4pts (+36.5% ROI) profit and provides a good starting point for to dig out these numbers that are more relevant/pertinent today...

Female runners : 9/30 (30% SR) for 25.4pts (+84.6% ROI)
3 yr olds : 17/59 (28.8% SR) for 30pts (+50.8% ROI)
At same class as LTO : 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 7.4pts (+16% ROI)
and running at a trip within half a furlong (to allow for course variances) of LTO : 16/47 (34% SR) for 32.2pts (+68.4% ROI).

Mia San Triple has already proven herself to be a consistent and reliable performer, but is still relatively unexposed after just 8 starts (32321123) and has placed twice from three runs on the all-weather (placed once from two runs here). She's been placed twice from three runs at this level and three time s from efforts over today's trip, including two wins in the summer at nearby Windsor. She's not concerned about having plenty of company either with a 2321 in races of more than 10 runners.

It's no surprise to see her running well at this level/trip, since her father is Invincible Spirit, who won 7 of 12 races over today's trip, including a group 1, two group 3's and two listed events. That, of course, was all 12 to 15 years ago, but his offspring have a good record at this type of trip too. Since 2010, his progeny running 6 or 7 furlongs on the all-weather at Class 5 or better have won 101 of 525 races, a 19.2% strike rate yielding 216.2pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 41.2%.

As earlier, we can further break these figures down to give us some more relevancy in the following manner :

Female offspring are 46/215 (21.4% SR) for 168.4pts (+78.3% ROI)
His three year olds are 40/190 (21/1% SR) for 88.6pts (+46.6% ROI),
whilst those running here at Kempton are 38/215 (17.7% SR) for 110.5pts (+51.4% ROI).

Jeremy Noseda has had a quiet time of it of late with just six runners this month, Three of them have won, though, including a Listed success at here at Kempton with his last runner, 8 days ago. 3/6 shows the yard may well be coming into a bit of form, if they can get some more horses to the track, whilst more long-term, they are 13/57 in the last three months which is still pretty good.

We could have done with a better draw here for Mia San Triple, but she likes to get out and on with it early in the contest and with Spring Fling just inside her, there should at least be some early pace in her quarter of the draw.

We are compensated for this draw in the price currently available, where I was pleasantly surprised to be able to place a 1pt win on Mia San Triple at 6/1 BOG with SkyBet. All the other firms range from 9/2 to 11/2, so you should all get a decent quote from your chosen bookie, whose odds you'll find when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 7.25 Kempton 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 9th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th May 2014

We absolutely smashed the SP on yesterday's runner, Teajaybe who was steadily backed in from our 3/1 advised price to be sent off as the 11/10 favourite, meaning we'd certainly got the best value we could.

Them the stalls opened and that's where the good news ends, I'm afraid. He was well beaten (10 lengths) into sixth place with just two behind him. The commentators were being kind/diplomatic when they suggested the 3lb weight rise did for him. I just think he ran poorly, as horses sometimes do.

No point dwelling on a defeat, when there's racing every day, so let's look for a winner in the...

5.20 Lingfield:

Where I've backed Jeremy Noseda's 3-year-old yard debutant Mia San Triple at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor, on the back of her decent form shown in three starts for Peter Chapple-Hyam last season.

1. In the last few years, Jeremy Noseda's horses have performed well here at Lingfield with 26 of his 88 runners priced between Evens and 14/1 going on to win. This 29.6% strike rate has yielded 44.33pts profit at level stakes, a return of 50.4% on investment. I admit, that we don't often bet at 14/1 for SotD, but i wanted to give you an overview.

If we look at those priced at 7/1 or under, which is more our usual "zone", then he has still had a decent amount of success with 24 winners from 72 representing a 1-in-3 strike rate and the resultant 25.9pts profits are the equivalent of almost 36 pence from each pound wagered.

Interestingly, from the 72 above, his three-year olds have contributed 16 winners from 39 runs (41% SR) for 29.1pts (+74.6% ROI)

2. His record since 2011 in these 3yo+ maidens is also very encouraging with 26 winners from 97 runners for a 26.8% strike rate, which has to date produced 51.4pts profit at Betfair SP, an ROI of 53%. From those 97, he is 6/20 for 21.3pts here at Lingfield.

3. And since the turn of 2011, his 3yr olds have won 16 of 43 maidens on the all-weather when sent off below 7/1. It is a relatively small sample size, but it would be foolish to disregard at 37.2% strike rate that has already yielded 19.7pts at a return of 45.8%.

4. Mia San Triple will today become just the 38th 3yr old to be sent off at single-digit odds on debut for the Noseda yard, but 9 of the previous 37 have won (24.3% SR) producing 16.2pts profit (+43.7% ROI) and this is also encouraging.

The money is likely to come for newcomer Winter Thunder, whose pedigree suggests he'll be much better than this level in time, but I think he'll possibly need further than this trip and he might just need the run on debut for a yard that just isn't quite firing at present. Add to that the fact he's currently as short as 5/4, which offers no real value at all.

Mia San Triple, however, has the best form of those here, who have run previously, finishing 323 with some promise before switching yard. She was only narrowly beaten late on in her last Polytrack effort at Kempton two starts ago and she was third at Warwick last time out, 3.5 lengths behind Artistic Charm who was then rated at 85 for a group 3 contest at Newmarket three weeks ago.

Mia San Triple is rated 78, 3lbs lower than the other horse with any reasonable form, Inkerman, but we are carrying 17lbs than that one today. All of which makes me happy/confident enough of a 1pt win bet on Mia San Triple at 3/1 BOG, that's with BetVictor, but we realise other bookies are a available and you can see their prices, if you just...

...click here for the latest betting on the 5.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2013

A nice 4/1 winner for us yesterday, as Captain Royale just about got home for us after a patient ride by Barry McHugh. Barry held the horse up for a late run and waited for a gap to appear inside the final furlong.

The eventual runner-up moved to one side allowing him through and Barry steered him home to score by a neck. In hindsight, the runner-up blundered by creating the gap, but the gods were shining on us this time (we've had plenty of narrow defeats!) and the extra half from the drift in the betting was quite welcome too!

A Class 5, 6 furlong Maiden for 2 yr olds awaits us today in the...

2.20 Lingfield

Where Jeremy Noseda runs Outback Traveller, my 11/4 selection who makes only his second appearance on a racecourse after finishing 4th at 16/1 on debut 11 days ago. He was unplaced that day, but not disgraced by any means, finishing just 3 lengths adrift of the 9/2 winner (and SotD pick!) Ghazi.

Jeremy Noseda's horses regularly improve on their second run, especially when unplaced on debut, but not beaten out of sight ie finishing within 10 lengths of the winner. His record in the last three seasons with such horses is 16 winners from 43, that's a strike rate of 37.2% generating level stakes profits of 22.4pts, or 52.1% of stakes invested. The vast majority (14 of them) of those 16 odds winners fell into the Evens to 7/1 or under odds range, where the stats read 14 winners from 30 (46.7%) for 32.2pts (+107.2% ROI).

Outback Traveller cost 92,000 gns and is closely related to quite a few winners, notably including his half-brother Monsieur Chevalier who won six times and made the frame twice from just 9 runs as a 2yr old, including victories in Listed company and a Group 3 success, ending that season on a mark of 109.

Our selection showed plenty of promise on debut at Newmarket, despite being unfancied (sent off at 16/1), that was over a similar 6f trip, but the going was good to soft that day. He's expected to come on for having race experience as well as the natural progression Jeremy Noseda's horses tend to show. It is also expected that, like his relatives, he'll be better suited by today's faster conditions.

His previous race was a Class 4 race and he drops down in grade today, this is something that the Noseda yard tend to have success with too.

In the last three seasons they have had 19 winners from the 71 runners dropped in class, a strike rate of 26.8% for modest profits of 9.7pts, a return of 13.6%. However, the market tends to be a good guide with these horses dropping down, as 17 of those 19 winners were priced at 9/2 or under.

Those 17 winners priced at 9/2 or under come from a sample size of just 38, an excellent 44.7% strike rate, showing decent profits of some 21.3pts or 56.1% of stakes.

Tellingly, a combination of the two stats ie horses dropping in class for their 2nd run and priced below 5/1 SP have won 7 out of 11 times: the 63.6% strike rate giving rise to profits of 14.2pts (+129.2% ROI).

So, with the expected progression and the slightly easier task in hand, I'm happy to place a 1pt win bet on Outback Traveller at 11/4 BOG. This price seems to be the norm this morning, so I'll stick with Paddy Power and use some of yesterday's winnings, but I recommend that you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.20 Lingfield

***Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service
every day, just click here for more details.***

 

Stat of the Day, 12th August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th August 2013

Full marks to those of you who spotted my lazy error yesterday, as Chris Catlin actually rode twice for Rae Guest at Windsor. Both were ultimately beaten, although our selection did manage to fill the runner-up berth at 3/1, jut over a length behind the winning favourite.

Monday heralds the start of a new week, so let's crack on and look at the...

7.40 Windsor

Where I advise you to take the 6/4 on offer about Regal Silk whilst you still can!

I accept that 6/4 is a little bit shorter than I usually punt at for SotD, but I feel this one may well go off at evens or even shorter than that, so there's still the possibility of some decent value, but there is enough to suggest we'll be collecting later.

Regal Silk is a 3yr old bay filly, making just her fifth start today (2271 in maidens) and her handicap debut for trainer Jeremy Noseda.

As tends to be the case, the Noseda horses are going well at present with six winners and eight others placed from just thirty in the last four weeks, earning his followers 19.2pts (+64% ROI) at SP in the process. This is no fluke, as the months of July & August have seen the yard have a career strike rate of over 20.6% from all runners. For the period 2011/13, that figure is up to 23.9% (42 winners from 176) for profits of 46.3pts (+26.3% ROI).

If, as we have today, we have a Noseda-trained runner priced below 4/1 in a handicap at this time of year, the record is 14 wins from 46 (30.43% S/R) for 11.5pts (+25% ROI) profit.

Mr Noseda's horses also tend to go well here at Windsor with 13 winners from 38 in the same 2011/13 timeframe and this 34.2% strike rate has yielded a return of some 14.63pts, or 38.5% of stakes invested. With Windsor runners priced below 5/2, those stats become 8 winners from 13 (61.54%) for 8.83pts (+67.9% ROI).

Regal Silk makes her handicap debut today, after some good displays in maiden contests, the latest of which was her first ever win, coming over today's course and distance three weeks ago. She was ridden  by Ryan Moore that day and he resumes duties here once again this evening.

As well as having good form a this time of year and a great record here at Windsor, Jeremy Noseda is also a dab hand at getting horses to win on their handicap debut, as figures of 11 winners from 48 (22.9%) in the last three seasons will testify. Thos eleven winners have helped generate level stakes profits of almost 28pts (+58.25% ROI). With horses making their handicap debut for the yard and priced below 4/1, the strike rate is near enough 30%.

All of which gives me enough faith to place my 1pt win bet on Regal Silk at 6/4 with Paddy Power. This price is still dropping, but remains available in a few places, so please...

Click here for the latest betting on the 7.40 Windsor

***Don't forget, we offer a full racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.***

Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2013

No flying start to August I'm afraid, as West End Lad was well beaten. No excuses to be made for him in a competitive race, other than he may have got going a little too late. That said, he still lost by over 6 lengths having drifted from my advised 5/1 out to 8/1 at the off, meaning I also got the market wrong too.

Today's selection runs in a Class 4 handicap contest over a mile on good ground and is one of nine runners expected to line up for the...

5.50 Newmarket

Today's selection is Investment Expert and there are a number of stat-based reasons why I'm siding with this one today.

1. He is trained by Jeremy Noseda, whose yard is in excellent form: six winners and three placed from fifteen in the last fortnight. The 40% strike rate producing over 30pts at SP.

2. Jeremy Noseda has an excellent record here at Newmarket on the July course with 45 winners from 211 runners (21.33%) in the last 10 years, accruing profits of 47.3pts in the process (+22.42% ROI) from all runners at all odds. That record more recently reads 18 winners from 76 in the last 4 years, a 23.7% strike rate, producing 27.6pts (+36.4% ROI) profit.

And when the money is down for one of his runners here (ie 4/1 or under), the record over the last 4 years is 13 winners from 28 (46.4%) for 17.4pts profit (+62.14% ROI)

3. Investment Expert makes his handicap debut today and in the last 4 years, the yard has had 19 winners from 94 horses making their handicap debut: a strike rate of 20.2% producing level stakes profits of 18.2 pts (+19.4% ROI) with that strike rate rising to 30% (15 from 50) with runners priced at 4/1 or under.

4. Investment Expert won last time out and is a former course and distance winner here. In fact it was his latest run a fortnight ago, when he won over C&D at 10/1. Returning C&D winners coming back to Newmarket off the back of a win last time out have a 12/52 win record (23.08%) for profits of 26.08pts (+50.2% ROI) and when we consider just those that fall into our usual SoTD odds range ie 2/1 to 11/2, then we see 9 winners from 24: a 37.5% strike rate that almost doubles your stake money with profits of 23.2pts.

So, here's the racecard for today's contest.

Investment Expert improved greatly last time out when grittily taking a C&D maiden here a fortnight ago and I think that his opening mark of 74 looks quite lenient. He runs here for an in-form yard with a good record at the track and also with handicap debutants. I think that this horse will improve again today in this company and has the best recent form of all nine runners in this race and although we're not getting rich here, a 1pt win bet at 5/2 BOG with bet365 looks a good prospect.

When I wrote this up, not all firms had prices available for this race, so I strongly advise that you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.50 Newmarket

***Don't forget, we offer a full racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.***

Stat of the Day, 29th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th July 2013

We backed Dream Walker yesterday at 7/2 and he was eventually sent off as the 6/4 favourite. He didn't let his backers down either, as he took the lead with a furlong to go and kept on well to score by half a length.

Back down South today for an evening six furlong, Class 4 fillies handicap, where the ground is likely to be good / good to firm for the eleven runners contesting the...

7.30 Windsor

Jeremy Noseda's horses are going really well at present with 5 winners and 3 placed from 12 runners in the last fortnight. This is no surprise to me, however, as Jeremy does tend to be very successful at this time of year anyway.

In the 2011/13 period Jeremy has a record of 13 wins from 58 in handicap races during the months of July and August. This 22.4% strike rate is responsible for excellent profits of some 50.05pts, an ROI of 86.3% and he's currently 3/7 in handicaps this month.

Of those 58 runners above, 32 of them ran to an SP of below 6/1 and those 32 runners produced 10 winners (31.25% strike rate).

In addition to performing well at this time of year, it should also be noted that the yard has an excellent record here at Windsor too with 13 winners from 41 (31.7% SR) over the last couple of years producing 11.6pts (+28.3% ROI) and 13 winners from 36 (36.1%) producing 16.63pts (+46.2% ROI) with those runners priced below 8/1.

Jeremy has just one entrant in a handicap race today and that's here at Windsor in the guise of Maria Lombardi, who makes only her third start today.

She's clearly far less exposed than any of her rivals and was impressive when scoring at the first attempt just holding off the advances of Cape of Hope who then went on to record back to back successes. Although our selection didn't fare as well on her second outing in a 7f handicap, the drop back to today's 6f should help her again.

As a relative newcomer to handicaps, I'm not entirely convinced the handicapper has her measure just yet and she does dangerous today from a lowly weight, where she'll get 8lbs from the favourite.

The final piece of the jigsaw for me is the booking of Ryan Moore for the first time: Ryan is undoubtedly one of the sport's top jockeys and without putting any of his rivals down, I think he might just be able to squeeze a little more out of Maria Lombardi today.

As she's still a fairly unknown sort allied to her disappointing effort last time out (3rd of 4 behind Jontleman and Ceelo), we're able to get a decent price this morning. To that end, my call is a 1pt win bet on Maria Lombardi at 5/1 BOG with Ladbrokes. Other bookies are, of course, available and for the easiest way to find out what price they're offering...

Click here for the latest betting on the 7.30 Windsor

***Don't forget, we offer a full racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.***

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2013

Stat of the Day : 4/5/13

Stat of the Day : 4/5/13

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2013

As I'd hoped yesterday, the return to turf and a drop back in distance did the trick for Antonio Gramersci ans SotD yesterday as he ran out a comfortable 3/1 (we'd taken 100/30) winner by almost 3 lengths and he was still going away at the end after a patient hold up ride. I'll be interested to see where he pitches up next.

Back to English soil today for the rarefied atmosphere of a Class 1 Fillies' Listed contest over a mile and a half, where the going is set to be Good (firmer in parts) for the seven runners vying for the first prize of almost £24,000 in the...

2.20 Goodwood:

The last couple of years have been good for Jeremy Noseda here at Goodwood with nine of his twenty-eight runners taking the honours. This 32.1% strike rate has rewarded his followers with profits of 23pts at SP: a return of 82.1% on their stakes. If those figures weren't impressive enough: in non-handicap contests, the stats are even better: five winners from thirteen (38.5%) for 18.5pts (+142.3%) profit.

Those excellent results for 2011 & 2012 aren't anomalies nor a flash in the pan either, Jeremy's overall record at Goodwood since the start of 2004 reads 32/132 = 23.48%, a very healthy record, whilst at non-handicap level, the numbers  look even better at 21/77, a 27.27% Strike Rate.

Mr Noseda actually has two such runners today: Burkes Rock (available at 5/1 BOG) seems to have the tougher task in the 4.05 race, also a Class 1 Fillies Listed contest, so my preference is for his runner earlier in the card: Reckoning.

Reckoning is another of those lightly raced horses that are cropping up at the moment. This filly has only raced twice before today's encounter, after a 9/1 win on debut at Doncaster back in October 2011, she was third last time out in another Class 1 listed contest at Doncaster last November. She was by no means disgraced that day, finishing lengths than two lengths off the winner and well clear of the 4th placed horse. She was only just over a length behind Sajjhaa that day and the Godolphin mare then followed up with back to back Group 2 victories and successive Group 1 wins: all four races at Meydan this spring.

I'd expect this one to have plenty of scope for improvement and she holds an entry for the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York in 12 days time, so I assume the yard think she's more than capable of taking this today.

So, it's a straight forward 1pt win bet on Reckoning at 7/2 BOG for me today. That price is quite widely available, but I've some money in my Coral account, so I'll be using them, but to see what your bookie is offering...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.20 Goodwood.

Stat of the Day, 15th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 15/01/13

Stat of the Day: 15/01/13

Stat of the Day, 15th January 2013

No play yesterday as Club House was declared a non-runner. This horse seems interesting, so I'll be looking for him next time out. A tricky day today with very heavy ground at both the NH meetings (Ffos Las & Lingfield). I had an E/W bet in mind on Rosoff in the 2.00 Lingfield, but doubts over the quality of the track (still covered as I wrote this!) have sent me scurrying back to the All-Weather again!

There is, of course an A/W Junior Bumper at Lingfield, but Dunstall Park is the main focus of any All-Weather action today, so that's where we're going. Our race is a twelve-runner, Class 5 Maiden over a mile and a half, the...

3.25 Wolverhampton

A Class 5 Maiden on a Tuesday afternoon on the Wolverhampton polytrack won't be everyone's first choice as a betting medium, but I believe we've an angle that could well prove profitable, as Jeremy Noseda's record in maiden events here has been exceptional in recent years.

In fact, in the last five years, Jeremy has sent 38 horses out to compete in these maiden events at the Dunstall Park track and sixteen of them have returned as winners with a further ten runners making the frame. His win strike rate of  42.1% has generated 24pts profit at level stakes (=89.5% POI), whilst E/W backers have enjoyed a profitable return of 29.6pts, courtesy of the 68.4% place strike rate. This place strike rate, whilst impressive over a five-year period has actually improved to a staggering 76.2% in the last two years, whilst Jeremy has maintained his 42% win ratio.

No prizes for guessing that Mr Noseda has just one runner today, in the form of Shirazz.

Shirazz is an interesting newcomer and makes her belated debut at the age of four. Whilst her dam wasn't rated as anything special, her breeding tends to suggest that this middle distance type of trip will be her forté. She's a half-sister to the 5yr old Peachez who has scored 3 wins and 4 places from 8 races at today's trip and also won twice (plus a place) here at Wolverhampton, so our selection is expected to take to the surface quite readily.

Apprentice Amy Scott (5lb claimer) takes the ride today and she has also ridden Peachez to good effect in the past (3 wins and 6 further places from 13).

All this is, of course, pure conjecture, as nobody really knows which way this one will go on debut, but the breeding ( also related to several USA winners) and the trainers' stats tend to suggest we'll at least get a decent run for our money and that an E/W bet wouldn't be an unreasonable thing to suggest.

At 10.15am, the markets were showing her at anything between 7/1 BOG and 12/1 (non-BOG). So, my play today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Shirazz at 11/1 BOG with BetVictor. You can, of course, always check the odds on offer elsewhere by taking the opportunity to...

 

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.25 Wolverhampton