Stat of the Day, 17th July 2015
Getting 7/2 about a 2/1 winner is always satisfying and even more when your runner snatches the race right on the line and that's what happened at Leicester on Thursday for us.
Some might say it was a perfectly judged ride or that we got lucky, but things even themselves out and we've lost races that way in the past, so all's fair in my eyes!
It was good to get back to winning ways and I now want another in Friday's finale at HQ, the...
A Class 5, 7 furlong handicap on good to firm ground where Jeremy Noseda's gelding Zeshov drops in trip in a bid to convert a good run last time out into a second career victory on just his seventh start.
Jeremy Noseda's record on the July course is decent at 27 wins from 133 (20.3% SR) for 32.5pts at an ROI of 24.4%.
Those running over trips of 7f to a mile are 16 from 77 (20.8% SR) for 18.1pts (+23.4% ROI), those running in handicaps are 11/56 (19.6% SR) for 17.6pts (+31.4% ROI), whilst those ridden by Frankie Dettori are 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 4.4pts (+48.5% ROI) profit.
Zeshov comes here having last been seen finishing 4th of 9 runners 8 weeks ago, but that hardly tells the whole story. That was his first run for 281 days and he was only beaten by 1.75 lengths and was only a quarter of a length behind runner-up Scottish Glen who is 2 from 2 at Class 4 since that day.
That last run was also a Class 4 affair and the drop in class should benefit him here, a theory backed up by the fact that in the last three seasons Jeremy Noseda's horses priced at 8/1 and shorter who were dropped in class, won 12 of 38 (31.6% SR) races for 27.4pts profit at an ROI of 72.2%.
Jeremy's runners also seem to do better with a relatively recent run behind them and since 2009, his horses priced at 6/1 or shorter making their 2nd handicap start in three months are 36/116 (31% SR) for 16.3pts (+14% ROI), with those running in Class 4/5 contests winning 30 of 82 (36.6% SR) for profits of 22.7pts (+27.6% ROI).
He ran well last time out and this looks an easier task and the stats do suggest he will go well again here too. That said, the market will be alive to that fact and we'll not be getting rich off the back of Zeshov today.
For the record, I think I'll sacrifice the slightly better odds to take the BOG insurance. I expect Zeshov to shorten in the market, but there's always the chance it goes the other way. To see the latest odds...
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